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FOREIGN AGRICULTURE CIRCULAR 

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE 
WASH I NGTON, D. C. 



FATP I - 55 



JANUARY 13, 1955 



FOR PM. RELEASE JANUARY 17, 1955 



WORLD 
AGRICULTURAL SITUATION 



1955 





UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE 
WASHINGTON 25, D. C. 



INDEX TO 



WORLD AGRICULTURAL SITUATION 



Page 



World SiBrroary •« »•••• • • 3 

Situation by Countries and Areas 

Canada. »«. «..••.•••• 10 

United States «..••.•«.» 11 

Latin America » 13 

Western Europe and French North Africa. 19 

Eastern Europe* 26 

Soviet Union* o .> » o •>.•.... • 2? 

Middle East and Asia, .« o... >..«.. 31 

Western^ Cta'itral and Southern Africa, .,»o..o., UO 

Oceania «,so.<. <>.....o.»..,.«<. ... h3 



Situation by Ccmodities 



Sugar 

Fats and Oils ................ ^6 

Fruit o 60 

Potatoes and Pulses ««.... , 6l 

Milk and Dairy Products «.r. 65 

Coffee^ „ . / 67 

Tea o ............. 69 

VJool, ^ 73 

Poultry and eggs. . » « * 7U 

Jute and Hard Fibers a^ 75 

Tobacco ««..«..... o 77 



Approved by Outlook and Situation Board 



FOREWORD 



In this 19^5 agricultural situation attention is focussed 
upon the supplies of food and other products which are 
available for consumption until the bjarvests of 1955'"56 
are gathered* It is not an inventory of supplies available 
as of January 1., 195^ « Rather, the beginning date of the 
new year depends upon the coTnmodity* Thus for wheat, the 
jrear begins on July 1^ and ends on June 30^ 195^1 for 

meat and nd-Hie the year' begijis Janixary l^j, 195.^ and ends on 
December 31 j 1955 » The intention of the report is to 
summarize the over»>all degree to which the agricultural 
producers of the world have accomplished the task of pro- 
viding food and other requisites of life for the population 
at large « 

An attempt has been made to point up some of the problems 
of distribution with which the world is faced in connection 
with malcing available to consmers the fruits of the efforts 
of the farmers of the world. The 19'S^ agil cultural situa- 
tion indicates that progress has been rmde in facilitating 
this dj.stribution, partly through the improvement in 
econome conditions in many parts of the world and partly 
through Governmental actions on the part of the United States 
and other nations* 



Document Delivery Services Branch 
USDA, National Agricultural Library 
Nal BIdg. 

10301 Baltimore Blvd. 
Bettsville. MD 20705-2351 



- 2- 




WORLD A^^G^^I_^ UJ. T U R A L S J T U A T I 0 M 



The world output of agricult-aral products during 19^14-55 appears to be 
almost as large as the record output of the previous year, according to a 
world-wide survey just completed by the Foreign Agricultural Service of the 
United States Department of Agriculture* World crop production in the 
current year, due largely to the smaller output in North America and Asia, 
is indicated to be nearly 2 percent below the 1953"5U output, but the pro- 
duction of livestock products has continued to new high levels and the 
increases nearly offset the decline in crop output. 

The large production of 195U-^5 following the record output of the 
previous season has resulted in substantial increases in carry-over stocks 
of several staple agricultural coiwiodities, particularly wheat, sugar, cotto 
and rice. These increases in carry-over stocks more than offset the decline 
in production and total supplies of agricultural products for the 195U--55 
season are at record levels » 

Marketing Problems 

The Qontinued large supplies of agricultural products have led to 
serious marketing problems in several surplus producing countries of the 
world and various steps have been taken to increase consumption or bring 
production more in line with probable world consumption and to expand export 

A few countries have adopted, program.s for reducing the area devoted to 
crops for which there are large carry-overs 5 others are shifting from these 
commodities to others which may have more favorable market outlets. During 
19^h) for example, there v/as a noticeable shift in the world's crop area 
from foodgrains to cotton, tobacco, and feed crops, and additional similar 
shifts appear likely/ in 1955c Several countries have encouraged exports in 
various ways during the past year in an effort to reduce their carry-over 
of agricultural products j some 'have reduced prices or subsidized exports; 
some have cut export taxes; others have attempted to work out barter or bi- 
lateral agreements with their principal foreign suppliers. These efforts 
have resulted in some countries moving a part of their agricultural surpluse 
into marketing channels but world stocks generally have continued to expand, 
I^iajor obstacles to the expansion in world trade, however, have been the gen- 
eral inelasticity of demand for many agricultural products and the continued 
efforts on the part of importing countries to expand their agricultural out- 
put in order to become more self-sufficient or to conserve their foreign 
exchange for non-agricultural products, 

Price Stability 



Despite the marked expansion in agricultural supplies, world prices for 
agricultural products have remained relatively stable, partly because of the 



u 



Table 1: World Production of Selected' Agriciiltural Products, "Averages 
^-935-39 and 19U5.I+9, Annual 1952-51^ 



Commodity 




Averages 

19^5'^ 



Annual 



1953 



Food products: 
Rice, milled 
Wheat 
Rye 

Sugar , centrifugal 
Sugar ,noncentr if ugal 
Vegetable oils, 

edible 
Coconut and palm oils 
Animal fats 
Marine oils 
Potatoes 
Pialses 2/ 

Deciduous fruits h/ 
Citrus fruits 
Meat 
Milk 

Egge 2ji/ 

Coffee 

Cacao 



Short tons 
Bushels 

Short tons 



Bushels 
Bags 

Short tons 

It n 

Pounds 
II 

NumlDer 
Bags 7/ 
Pounds 



117.2 
6,025 
1,732 
28.5 
5.U 

7.1 
3.6 
9.0 
1.1 
8,366 
175.8 
62.7 
9.8 
^68,OOt 
|/501,#00 

89,700 
U1.6 

1,579 



• t -Millions-; 

IIU.3 
5,840 
1,525 
27.4 
6.0 



Food Index 8/ ] 




100 


95.0; 


109-8; 


113.0 


110,8 


Feed products: 
Corn 
Oats 
Barley 


;6u6h«ls 
II 

It 


4,760 
4,365 
! 2,365 


5,280 
3,930 
: 2,170 


5,640 
. 4,190 
: 2,745 


; 5,730 
: 4,155 
: 2,755 


\ 5,500 
• 4,400 
: 2,825 


Industrial raw 
materials : 
Cotton 
Wool 
Tobacco 

Industrial oils 


: Bale 6 

: Pounds 
II 

: Short tons 


31.7 
:2/ 3,930 
: 10/6, 519 
: 2.9 


': 25.7 
: 3,840 

3.0 


': 35.7 
: 4,330 
: 7,230 

3.3 


37.9 
: 4,351 
: 1M6 
: 3.1 


; 34.7 

. 4,427 
: 7,755 
: . 3.1 



7.3 
3.1 

8.1 
0.6 
7,679 
181.7 
55.7 
12.7 
6/67,000 
""450,000 
106,900 



124.9 
7,280 
1,600 
36.1 
6.6 

8.0 
3.8 
10.0 
1.0 

8,019 
173.0 

64.4 

14.5 
77,400 
500,200 
127,600 
40.3 
1,663 



131.7 
7,260 
1,^90 
40.2 

6.3 

8.9 
3.8 
10.2 

0.9 

8,261 
208.2 
59.2 
15.8 
80,400 
522,700 
130,200 
41.7 
1,586 



127.7 
6,790 
1,525 
39.2 
6.6 

8.6 
4.t 
If.^ 

1.0 
8,54« 

213.1 

63.9 
15.2 

82,700 
529,200 
:13'+,900 
41.8 
1,782 



" chickpeas (garbanzos) ^production in principal countries. U Bags of 100 
pounds each. 4/ Includes apples, pears, peaches, apricots, cherries, plums, 
prunes, grapes and pineapples. ^ 193^^-38 . 6/ 1946-50. l/ Bags of 132.276 
pounds each. 8/ Edible portions of above products combined on the basis of 
caloric content. £/ 1936-HO. lO/ Calendar year. 

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S.D.A, 



5 



continued high level of demand, and partly because of the world-wide tendency 
of governments to conduct programs protecting agricultural producers from the 
hardships resulting from marked declines in farm prices. During the early 
months of 19$h some price weakness was apparent but in recent months world 
prices of most farm products have been relatively stable. This stability is 
supported by the general outlook that the combined efforts to shift produc- 
tion where possible, and to expand consumption and trade, as well as the 
continued hi£h level of demand and expanding: population will gradually absorb 
the large supplies of farm products now available, 

2 Percent Food Production Drop Calorie-wise 

The world production of major food piroducts during 19^14-55, measured in 
terms of calories, is about 2 percent below the record of 1953-5U (See table 
1 and figure l). However, this decline is more than offset by larger carry- 
overs of wheat, sugar, rice, and dairy products bringing total food supplies 
above last year and per capita supplies almost to last years levels. During 
1953-$U per capita consumption of food products made significant increases 
in many parts of the world and the large ' supplies available for the current 
year will permit a continuation of this upward trend in food production. 

Financial Improvement 

The financial position of important foreign countries has improved con- 
siderably in recent years. Foreign-held gold and dollar reserves have increased 
by about '^9 billion since 19h9o As a result several Western European countries 
have taken steps preliminary to, but still short of, a restoration of currency 
convertibility. Dollar import controls have been relaxed by a number of 
countries. United States agricultural products have, in some instances, bene- 
fited from such relaxation. Most countries are, however, maintaining extensive 
controls over agricultural imports, and many of them still restrict agricul- 
tural imports from the dollar area more than those from other areas. 

In a number of Latin American coimtries opportunities for United States 
exports are hampered by recent substantial increases in cost of living which 
make trade uncertain because of consumers' inability to purchase. This situa- 
tion exists in a few countries in the Kiddle East and Asia though by and 
large in most of these areas limited changes in the cost of living have taken 
place. 

Regional Summary 

The first decrease in 9 years in over-all world agricultural production 
occurred as the upward sweep of North American production faltered and lost 
ground, while the output of the Middle East and Asia failed to maintain the 
recovery of recent years. ' eanvjhile iJestern Europe, Eastern Europe and the 
Soviet Union showed little quantitative change from the 1953-5U production 
pace. South America showed an increase but of insufficient size to offset 
decreases elsewhere. 



6 



In the United otates total 195U-?5 crop output was down 3 percent, as 
acreage of vjheat, cotton and corn was curtailed and a serious drought cut 
output in a group of southern states. Livestock production, however, reached 
a new high record and is expected to continue large for several years. The 
adverse harvest season seriously reduced the total Canadian output, with rust 
and adverse weather cutting in half the expected x;heat crop and seriously 
damaging other grains. 

Agricultural production in Western Europe was not quite as favorable as 
in 1953. Quantitatively there was an overall gain in output, but quality of 
grains was reduced by rains and storm at harvest time. Sugar production was 
lower and it i^as an off year for olive oil. Potato production was up I; 
percent. There were more livestock of all kinds on farms and meat production 
increased. Economic expansion continued \i±th increased exports and stepped- 
up building activity. Interest rates are do^m and currency reserves up. Tax 
reductions have made more income available for consumer goods. Relaxations 
in import controls have made numerous changes in government policies 
encouraging freer markets for agricultural production although farm protec- 
tionist movements continue strong. It seems likely that imports of overseas 
wheat will be larger than in the preceding year. Requirements for feedgrains, 
vegetable oils and seed oils should encourage imports and more tobacco leaf 
and cotton probably will be imported. 

Recent developments in France point to more aggressive economic policies 
which might X\rell lead to re -establishment of that country as an exporter of 
wheat, sxigar and meat. Trade liberalization in Europe, including imports 
from the dollar areas made further progress in 195U though it lagged behind 
the potential of improved foreign balances. 

USSR Acreage Expansion : In 19$k the Soviet Union began a program of acreage 
expansion, but production differed little from the level of 1953 except for 
cotton, the production of which appears to have been larger. There still is 
little improvement in livestock production, the weak link in Russian agri- 
culture. The drive for expansion of crop acreage may have cut the area in 
perennial grasses and worked against needed expansion in livestock numbers. 
Government policy during 195U apparently shifted to favoring ejcpansion of 
consumption of agricultural products. 

The Soviet Union imported considerable amounts of food, as did other 
Eastern European countries which appear to have had an even less successful 
agricultural outturn in 195U than in the lovj year of 1953. The increasing 
demand from USSR and other Eastern European countries for fats and oils, 
meat, cheese^ fruits, cotton, tobacco and even grain is likely to continue 
on an even larger scale in 1955. This movement is in line with the policy 
change to permit some increase in consumption at the expense of greatly 
emphasized investment, 

Latin American Output Rises : In Latin America, agricultural production for 
19^4-55 is forecast at three percent higher than in the preceding j'-ear. 
Imports into the United States from that area are expected to reach the total 
of last year, and exports of agricultural products to that area probably 



7 



will equal the value of those in calendar 1953* 'ith no increase anticipated 
in the dollar income from sugar and with increasing supplies of domestic 
food, Cuba may take slightly less agricultural imports from the United States, 
but Venezuela may increase its takings slightly^ Both co^antries are excellent 
markets for wheat and flour, milk products, and fats and oils» 

The outlook for ilexican agricultural production is considerably improved 
over that of a year earlier so that Mexico will need smaller qus.ntities of 
corn, beans, snd wheat from the United States, Proc^uction of crops for export 
are also expected to be higher, thus promising an j.raproved balance of trade 
for that country. It is hoped that this x-iill lead to some relaxation of the 
tight import controls currently in effect on fats and oils and dairy products. 

The already tight foreign exchange situation in Brazil has become worse 
in recent months with declining prices and exports of coffee. No increase is 
anticipated in United States exports of dairy products and fruit, but sub- 
stantial sales of wheat and/or flour, Brazil's principal agricultural import 
items, can be expected. 

Agricultural production in Asia and the Mddle East declined in 19$h-S$) 
the decrease taking place largely in India and Turkeyo It was offset only in 
part by substantial increases in Japan and slight increases in a number of 
other countries. The foodgrain deficit 'for the are appears to be. about 9 
million tons of wheat, wheat flour, barley and rice. On the other hand there 
is a surplus of aboxit $ million tons of rice, principally in Burma and 
Thailaiid, Because of some carryover of rice from the previous year food con- 
sumption per capita probably will improve slightly from the preceding year, ■• 

Western, Central and Southern African agricultural production in 195ii-5^ 
seems certain to be the largest in any of the postwar years, following 
another good outturn in 1953-5U. With larger supplies of home-groT'm foods 
and increased exports at favorable prices, particularly of coffee and cocoa, 
the area, particxilarly British 'Jest Africa, presents an improved market for 
consumers goods such as flour, dairy products, canned meat and tobacco, 

Oceania 

Crop production in Oceania in 195U-55 is expected to be below the pre- 
ceding year, except for dried fruit o Livestock production should continue 
large, Australia will remain a major wheat exporter^; as production plus 
stocks are above the' previous year's supply. Both countries are adjusting 
their production and marketing programs to make them more flexible in 
competing on world markets. 

Commodity'- Summary 

World grain production was somewhat below 1953-5U, but on a high level, 
i/Jheat and com ^^rere well above average. The barley crop was a record one and 
oats and rye were close to record. The rice crop was at least 2 percent below 
the record crop of the pre/'cdinp year, vJheat supplies in the four major 
exporting countries on October 1, 19^^)i i^cre close to 2 hi 11 ion bn5!h<=>ls, 1 



percent above a year earlier. More wheat should move in international trade 
because much of the Western European wheat is of lower quality and will need 
to be diverted to feed use, Turkey'-, which was an important exporter for 
several years, will need to import wheat in 155U-55* 

Feed grain production in the importing area of Western Europe is 7 percent 
less than in 2.9^3-^h» To maintain its livestock production, the area will need 
to import as much, if not more, feedgrains in the current year. However, more 
rain-damaged wheat and rye will be available for livestock use. Rice supplies 
are ample to meet effective export needs. International trade in rice was held 
down in 1953 by high prices and 19$h movement appears certain to be larger, 
perhaps by as much as 8 percent. Exportable supplies for 1955 are the largest 
in years. 

Production of fats and oils is about the same as in 1953. Supplies avail- 
able for utilization are lower as a result of stock reductions, particularly 
in Argentina and the United States. Edible vegetable oils for consumption in 
1955 are h percent below the preceding year, principally because of the 
smaller olive crop in the Mediterranean Basin, Cottonseed oil from 195U-55 
production will be smaller because of the short United States crop. On the 
other hand soybeans have set another. record as both United States and China- 
I^Ianchurian crops were large. The sunflower seed crop is the smallest of any 
postwar year, but peanuts available for oil are above 1953 and the palm 
group of oils has been augmented by an especially favorable outturn in the 
Belgian Congo and the Philippines. Animal fats are up slightly with moderate 
increases in butter, tallow and grease, and little change in lard. (Exports 
of fats and oils from the United States continue at record levels,) The 
demand for fats and oils is expected to remain strong, particularly in Europe, 
Exports of soybeans are expected to reach a new peak in 1955» 

World production of centrifugal sugar at 39 million tons is the second 
largest crop ever produced. Consumption approximates 38 million tons and it 
appears that another million tons xdll be added to the already large stocks. 
Every major source of U, S, supply, domestic and foreign, is in a position 
to fulfill its quota, Cuba again held down production in 19$k» During the 
year the International Sugar Council took vigorous action to hold prices to 
the agreed upon minimum. Cuba is expected to restrict production again in 
1955- 

Potato production in North America and Western Europe is lower than in 
1953 and about in line with normal utilization, with some potatoes moving 
from the United States to Canada. The Western European crop is U percent 
larger but because of excessive rain and wet weather during the harvesting 
period there may be above-average storage losses. Definite information is 
lacking for Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, but reports on weather there 
indicate that the potato production there also may be large but low in quantity. 

Production of dry edible beans in the important producing countries of 
the world was about h percent above 1953-5U and ih percent larger than the 
prewar average. The Western European crop was sufficiently reduced in quantity 
to indicate the ix)ssibility of incx-onpo<l imports from the United States during 
the corning; s'=^asoij, Tlie yoa. oiop was 3 peioeut laiger and guvhanzos 13 percent. 



During 19^h meat animals continued the expansion in numbers from the low 
point reached at the close of World V/ar II, During recent years pasture and 
feed supplies have averaged above normal and there has been a strong demand • 
for meat and dairy products. Numbers of cattle and sheep continued to 
increase; hog numbers turned upward in the United States and other important 
producing coxantries during 19$h» Dairy as well as beef cattle numbers have 
trended upward and the increased efficiency in poultry production has made a 
substantial contribution to protein food available for human consumption. 
Meat production appears to have increased to about h percent above 19^3, and 
per capita consumption apparent Ij'- is equal to prewar. It is expected that 
in 1955 the outturn of meat will exceed 19Sh» Surplus meat producing 
countries may have more meat for exporting in 1955 because of the increased 
production and increased domestic supplies. Imports by the United Kingdom, 
the largest importer, are likely to continue large, despite increased home 
production. The United States and Western Germany, the other large importers 
will be in the market for relatively large supplies even though their home 
production continues large. 

Current information points to milk production in 195^4 slightly above 
the 1953 outt\irn of 523 billion pounds in the important milk producing 
coimtries in the world, and prospects are that somewhat larger production 
will take place in 1955. Per capita milk consumption has not changed 
materially but the downward trend of prices has encouraged increased use of 
butter and cheese. 

Cocoa production made a substantial recovery in 195U in spite of con- 
tinued inroads of plant disease and insects in African groves. New plantings 
are being made and future supplies should show fiorther increases. Coffee 
production is recovering from the severe freeze in July 1953 in Brazil, High 
prices have stimulated new plantings and the outlook is for more ample 
supplies within a very few years. 

Of the non-food items, cotton production in 195U-55 of 3U.7 million bale 
is below 1953-5U by 2,2 million bales due entirely to U, S, acreage restric- 
tions and marketing quotas. World consumption is expected to equal or 
slightly exceed the record 35 million bales used in 1953-5^1. Foreign stocks 
of cotton were used up during the year and at the beginning of the 195U-55 
season the United States had most of the surplus. The outlook for United 
States exports during 195U-55 is favorable because of minimum stocks in 
cons\iming centers, the competitive nature of United States prices, and 
favorable dollar reserves in Europe, the principal cotton consuming area. 

Wool production and consumption have been nearly in balance for a number 
of postwar 3^ears, Production continues at a high level, consumption fell 
off in 195U and prices weakened in the September-November period when Aus- 
tralian auctions brought new -crop wool into the market. In view of the 
increasing availability of other fibers, it appears that adequate supplies 
of apparel fibers m.11 be available during 1955 at reasonable prices, to meet 
the expanding world needs. 



10 



Jute production is at a low level following drastic price declines of 

several years ago, Henequen and abaca production also has fallen off during 
the post -Korean war periodo Production of sisal, on the other hand^ has 
increased steadily. 

Tobacco production in 195U-55 was k percent above the preceding year. 
Stocks are believed to have increased only sli^tly during since tobacco 

consumption continues its upward trend because of the improved economic con- 
ditions in many parts of the world and the increase in the adult population. 
The consumption of tobacco is responsive to adjustments in economic activity 
and in 19^h-SS expected economic improvement probably will result in increased 
tobacco consumption, 

SITUATION BY COUIJTRIES 



CANADA 



In Canada an adverse 19^h crop season resulted in greatly curtailed 
pi-oduction of its major grain crops. With large carry-in stocks of wheat 
and feedgrains, however, and increased exportable surpluses of livestock 
products, Canadian agricultural exports in 19$$ may be above the 195U level. 

Production : 

Production of wheat in Canada in 19$h is estimated at 3C0 million busliels, 
less than half either the 1953 or 1952 crop, and far below the average of ii60 
million bushels produced in the preceding ten years. This low production was 
caused by the worst rust epidem.ic on record in the Prairie Provinces, exten- 
sive damage by sawfLies, and adverse weather ponditions, including flooding, 
hail, frost, wind, and snow. Estimates indicate only ill percent of the total 
crop will grade No. 1 to U Northern, and 55 percent or more will fall in 
grades 5^ 6 and feed wheat. Carry-in stocks of wheat as of August 1, 195Uj 
vjere 587 million bushels, most of which is of high qualitj'' wheat. 

Production of oats for grain is estimated at 23 percent below 1953 ^ 
barley one-third less than in 1953 , and rye slightly less than half that of 
1953. Production of soybeans and corn set new records. 

The apple crop of ih.l million bushels is 20 percent above 1953> but 
other fruit crops were beloiir. Potato production, of 50.5 million bushels, is 
one-third less than in 1953. Sugar beet production of 951^*000 tons, on the 
other hand, is the fourth largest on record, and above 1953 • 

Livestock : 

Cattle numbers were maintained at high levels, and a sharp increase in 
the size of the 195U pig crop was reflected in the November and December 
increased pork supplies for home use and for export. The overall domestic 
disappearance of meats in Canada was increased 6 percent over 1953 as a 
result of i-e«^ovd beef consumption, though pork consumption was down. 



11 



The number of milk cows in Canada continued to increase in the spring 
of IS^hi and total milk production was estimated at 16«9 billion lbs. 3 
percent above 1953. Butter production was 3.8 percent greater, and stocks 
at the end of 195U were 20 percent hipher. Cheese production in 195U was 
increased 10 percent above 19^3^ and stocks rose 2I4 percent higher than at 
the end of I9I3. Canned milk and dried skim milk production was approxi- 
mately the same as 1953 ^ but dried whole milk production probably was 5 
percent less. 

Trade Outlook ; 

Canada with its carry-in stock of raillable wheat will likely continue 
to be the world's leading exporter of bread grains in the year 1955. Further- 
more, the carry-in stocks of feedgrains are expected to be adequate, together 
with 195h output, to permit continued high level production of beef, dairj'- 
products and hogs, and permit normal exports of oats and barley to the United 
States. Besides the necessary supply of meat and dairy products for home 
use, greater quantities of these products are expected to be available for 
export in 1955 than during recent years. Continued high level industrial 
activity in Canada should increase the already large Canadian market for U.S. 
agricultural products. The modernization of wholesale and retail distribu- 
tion outlets in Canada, in the more prosperous niral as well as the 
■industrial areas, is facilitating packaging and distribution of hi^ quality 
horticultural products grown domestically in the United States. 

UNITED STATES l/ 

Agricultural production in the United States in 195U was at record 
levels and about half greater than the prewar (1935-39) average. Stocks of 
agricultural commodities at the end of 195U were larger than at the beginning 
of the year, even though domestic utilization and exports increased. 

Because of increasing supplies of several major agricultural products, 
steps were taken in 195U to bring supplies in the United States more in line 
with prospective domestic utilization and export outlets. Some of these 
steps sought to reduce new crop supplies; others sought to expand domestic 
consumption and exports. Marketing quotas were reimposed on the 195^1 crops 
of wheat and cotton at the minimum levels authorized by law, and acreage 
allotments in the commercial corn-producing area. The price support level 
on milk and butterfat for the 195U-55 marketing year was reduced from 90 
to 75 percent of parity, the minimum authorized by law, 

I^Iarket Promoti on; The Agricultural Trade Development and Assistance Act of 
195U (Public Law U80) provides a means. whereby surplus agriciiltural 
commodities in excess of usual marketings can be sold through private trade 
channels for foreign CTorrencies in a way which would expand internationsl 
trade between the United States and friendly nations. and make use of surplus 
agricultural commodities in furtherance of United States foreign policy. The 
law also provides for grants of agricultural commodities to meet famine and 
other relief requirements in foreign countries. Contributing also to the 
utilization of agricultural surpluses. Commodity Credit Corporation stocks are 
being made available for export at prices competitive with world market prices. 
1/ Prepared by the Agricultural iiarketing Service and the Commoditv Stabiliza- 
tion Service, 



Ltj^ sHat j oil pt;niiitLing rloua hi uiiS of CCC stocks of food plodi>cts tllTOVgh 
aoxi-pi'ofit voluntary agencies for reJief puip<)cp>p. (sccijon [1.I6, A[;;,ricult'ural 
Act of I9U9) was aiaended to permit payment of domestic transpoi'tation, 
repackaging, and certain other handling; charges. Under .this re\dsed legis- 
lation substantial quantities of ar;:ricultur.a.l commodities, especially dairj'" 
procucts, are now moving through donation for domestic and overseas use. 

United States food supplies continued at record levels in 19$ht Imports 
and substantial stocks at the beginning of the ^-ear supplemented large 
domestic production. The increase in food output over 1953, however, was not 
large, as the increase in oi:tput of livestock products barely offset 

the decline in food crops, :letail food prices were close to those for 19^3 
despite the record large supply, reflecting t'^e continuation of a high level 
of consumer de.iand for food. In 1955 avera;-e food prices at retail are 
expected to be close to those of 195U» 

Per Capita Food Consumption High: Civi.1ifln cunsuiiipti on of food per person in 
the UhTt edr~States~Th ' 1^5U was ne';^ l- record in size, close to that of the 
preceding year and aboi'.t an eighth above the prewar average annual rate. The 
amount of food consumed per capita in 195U included a little more poultry, 
eggs, frozen fruits and vegetables, and dried peas than in 1953, but less 
rice, fresh and canned fruits and vegetables, and swee tpotatoe s . Civilians 
used about as vauch meat, dairy products, food fats and oils, potatoes, and 
sugar per person as in 1953 • 

Production of grains in 195U was a little lower than that of a year 
earlier, but with the very heavy carry-in, supplies in 195U-55 ai"e somewhat 
larger than in 1953-5U and more than sufficient to meet anticipated domestic 
needs and exports. The 195U wheat crop was 17 percent smaller than in 1953 
and that of corn was down 7 percent. The rice crop set a new record and the 
crops of barley, oats, and rye were substantially above those of 1953. 

Supplies of food fats and oils will also be at a peak during the 195U-55 
mariceting year. Production will be up, with lard and soybean oil output a 
little more than offsetting declines in prospect for butter and cottonseed 
oil. In addition cany-over stocks, mainly butter and cottonseed oil, owned 
by the Government, were about as large as the record stocks at the beginning 
of the 1953-5U marketing season. 

Supplies of dry edible beans and peas during 195U-55 are up from a ^rear 
earHier mainly because of the larger total 1951| crops. However, some classes 
of beans, such as white, are in short suppl^-- whereas other classes are in 
adequate to heavj'- supply. Furthermore, the heav"- export demand for peas 
early in the season has put them in relatively- short position despite lar?e 
supplies. 

Cotton supplies for 195U-55 are the largest sj.nce' 19UP--');3* The 3.95)i ciop 
• was 18 per cent smaller than a year earlier,- but the old-crop caVry-iover — 
the heaviest since 19U5 — was sufficiently above the preceding season's; "to 
more than offset the decline in output. Domestic utilization of cotton in 
195^»-55 is e:qDected to exceed tliat of the preceding year and exports may be 
the highest in t.ie 3 past seasons and e:cceed b-"- around 20 percent t!ie volume 



13 



shipped abroad in 1953-5^. In that event the carry-over at the end of the 
current marketing year would not differ substantially from that of August 1, 
195U. 

Meat supplies in 1955 are likely to be at record levels and will con- 
tinue to include a high proportion of beef for the third consecutive year. 
More pork and veal will be available .than in 195iij but supplies of lamb and 
mutton will be down somewhat. Output of beef is likely to be about the samQ^ 

The large number of chickens on farms assure continued very large supplies 
of eggs and chicken meat well into 1955* 

Record large supplies of dairy products are in prospect for 1955. Milk 
production is expected to be close to that of 195Uj and total stocks of manu- 
factured dairy products at the beginning of 1955 are somewhat larger than a 
year earlier. Little change appears likely in the per capita rate of con- 
sumption of dairy products, but the increasing size of the United States 
population will bring total domestic use into somewhat better balance with 
milk production in 1955 than it has been in the past 2 years. 

Less fresh fruits and ve^^etables, potatoes and sweet potatoes will be 
available during the early months of 1955 than a year earlier. For the 
processed fruits and vegetables, supplies through the remainder of 19^U-SS 
marketing year will be smaller than in the same part of 1953-51 but suffi- 
cient to maintain consumption of these products by civilians at a high rate 
per person. 



LA UN .AJIERICA 



Agricultural production in Latin America as a whole in 19$h-$5 is expected 
to be at least 3 percent higher than that of the previous year, but only 
slightly higher on a per capita basis. Agricultural exports from the United 
States to this area in the fiscal year 19^h-S^ may be approximately equal in . 
value to the calendar year 1953 exports of „;it23 million, 

Latin America supplies the United States with more agricultural products 
than any other area of the world. During the 19Sh-S$ year United States 
imports of products such as coffee, bananas, and cacao, may be valued at 
least as high as in 1953, when the total was valued at ,2,273 million, of 
which yl,598 million represented products of complementary nature, 

Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador, the Caribbean Islands, Mexico, and 
Central America are markets for United States wheat and flour, fats and oils, 
dairy products, pork, poultry and eggs. In 1953 the principal markets for 
United States agricultural products were Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela, in that 
order. By and large, the rest of South America produces, or obtains from 
nearby countries, the principal part of its basic food needs. This situation 
is expected to continue through the coming year, although the United States 
may be expected to supply substantial quantities of wheat, dairy pfoducts, 
vegetable oils, and cotton to several of these southern countries. 



11; 



Cuba : Supplies of foodstuffs from domestic production in Cuba are expected to 
be at least as large in 195U-55 as during the past 3^ear, and ma-^'- be even 
greater. Corn production will be larrer, but will not reach the record 
8,900,000 bushels produced in 19l;8, Rice, the principal item ox diet and the 
najor import, continues to be grown in increasing oiiantit;^'- and domestic output 
now supplies about one-quarter of total consumption. 

Imports of rice, \jhich come almost exclusively from the United States, 
are not e:cpected to be as large in the comin'^ j'^ar as they were in 19$3-5U when 
they reached 5l8 million pounds. This is due to increasing domestic production, 
larger carry-over stocks, reduced purchasinf power of Cuba resulting from 
diminished e::ports of sugar. Rice imports Jul-"- 1 thji^ou.^h October l5, 19^h 
were 37 percent below the same period a year ago. Imports of wheat flour 
should be close to the 176 million pounds of 1953-51i, but considerably below 
that of 19^1 when 3U5 million pounds were imported. This is in addition to 
e:>cpected Imports of 2,9 million bushels of wheat as grain, 

Cuba's 19$h sugar crop of million short tons was slightly less than 
that authorized by Cuban lawj it was the second crop where harvesting was 
restricted b3'- official decree, following the bumper harvest of 8,0 million 
short tons in 19^2, Stocks of sugar on hand as of December 31 ^ 195U, probably 
vjill exceed those of a year earlier. The quantity of sugar for harvest in 
19^5 ^ therefore, is expected to be reduced below the le-vel of the preceding 
year to not laore than 5,0 million tons, " 

Reduced sales of sugar to Europe durin_^^ recent vnont'is and a high general 
level of imports may help to produce an unfavorable balance of pay^iients for 
Cuba for 195U. In an attempt to offset this, Cuba is reported to have worked 
out a barter deal XvT.th Germany invol-ving sugar in addition to that specified 
in the bilateral trade agreement with that country, 

Cuba is expected to continue as the principal iiiarket for United States 
agricultural exports in Latin Araerica during 195U-55 although the total -value 
of those e:;ports may decline somewhat from the previous year. 

West Indi es: British West Indies, British Guiana, British Honduras, Bahamas 
and Eervmda, as well as the French and Dutch areas, continue to be substan- 
tial iiTiporters of dairy products, flour, canned, fresh and pickled meats, and 
fish, because of inability to supply their requirements fro v domestic pro- 
duction. Sugar is the most important crop of the area and bananas second, 
British- Guiana and Su rinam are increasing and impro-vinf their rice production; 
at the same ti;.ie British Guiana has entered into contracts vdth Jam3.ica and 
other British areas in the V^Jest Indies to supply a substantial portion of their 
import requirements, Jamaica has recentl;"- placed in operation a 12,000-ton 
annual capacity rice-drying mill and is er-pandin^ -i.ts production. However, it 
does not yet have sufficient production to operate the new mill at capacity, 

Jamaica's condensed milk plant is now producing the equi-valent of 
31,000,000 poT-inds of milk, X'jhich exceeds its present reouirevents . However, 
it finds it necessary to import most of its butter, cheese and other dairy- 
products. 



15 



Jamaica^ British iiondiiras, Trinidad and Dominica have substantially 
increased their production of citrus since 1950, particularly of ,jrapefruit. 
This is ejrported chieflj'^ in the form of canned grapefruit se^ments^ juice 
and orange concentrate to the United Kingdom, The orange concentrate froM 
Jamaica and British Honduras is produced under a 10-year contract vdth the 
British Mnistry of Food, e:cpiring in 1959 # 

Banana production in Jamaica for export to the United Kingdom lias fully 
recovered from the 19^1 hurricane. Sugar is produced chiefly for marketing 
under the Commonwealth Sugar Agreement in the United Kingdom and Canada, 
Jamaica has been producing sugar in 1953 and 19$h in ejccess of its quota, but 
approximatel3'- liOjOOO tons of excess production for 195U will be borrht by the 
United Kin,-dom and Canada at world market prices, 

Ilexico : Mexico's agricultural outlook for 195U-55 is grertly improved over 
that of 1953-5U. ^/eather conditions for crop production liave been the best 
in many years. Greater production is forecast for 195U (furnishing supplies 
for 195ii-55) for every important crop except flaxseed and possibl-^ winter 
vegetables. Not onlj will greatly increased quantities of cotton and coffee 
and the less important ite'.is such as sugar, peanuts, and fruit be available 
for export, brt increased production of the basic food products will elimi- 
nate imports of corn and beans and sharpljr reduce import needs for wheat. 

Because of severe drought in 1953^ exico faced a critical food situa- 
tion in 1953-5U that was relieved by abnormally large imports. Domestic 
production supplied only about 92 percent of the total food caloric consmp- 
tion, V'ith excellent crops in however, the agricultural situation will 

be quite different and the country vdll h.ave a slight net export surplus of 
food. 

The raarket for United States agricultural products in Ifexico in 195^4-55 
will be sharply reduced from the unusually high level in 1953 , but probably 
will be about the same as in 1950, the last pre-drought year when no corn and 
beans had to be imported. The decline in imports of wheat will be offset 
partially by increases in other products. 

The anticipated reduction in agricultural imports in 195U-55 as compared 
^^^ith 1953 vJill mean a saving of about .'o53 million in foreign exchange. This, 
together with the e::pected increase in the valu.e of ejcports of '^73 million, 
should go a long way to restore the balance of Mexico's foreign trade and to 
build up monetary reserves. Once accomplished, the Mexican Government may 
relax its tight import controls on such items as fats and oils, powdered milk, 
powdered eggs, fruit and cheese, and lower its recently raised import duties 
on such ite is as fres'i fruit and cheese, so that United States e:cports may 
again flow oore freely. 

Other Northern Latin Araerica 

Food and fiber supplies in the other countries of northern Latin America 

in 195U-55 are expected to be at or above those of the previous year. "Ixport 

crops in most areas are forecast at higher levels, with the exception of 

bananas in Central ./Imerica , Floods following hurricanes in September, 195^4^ 



destroyed ci*ops and lar^,e sections of banana DlantavAons , especiall;'^ in 
Honduras,, where e^qpoi-ts in the coming ^'"ear ma-^^ be only a fraction of those 
during the past season. Current shorta-es of food crops in Centre.1 America 
stem frora this cause. 

Dollar earnings in Colombia frori coffee e:q:)orts should continue at a 
high level as production is increasing steadily. Formerlv a good market for 
United States cotton, the country is increasing its cotton production each 
year, output ha\nng risen two ?nd one-half ti les in two -^ears, S:rpanded area 
in cotton and improved yields account for the increase, "ills are required 
to buy the entire domestic output even though the price may not be competitive 
with the imported product, Iniorined observers estiinate tliat Colombia X'lill 
become self-sufficient in cotton within the near future. It is ejqDected that 
ti.ie covntry will continue to import from the United States material Quantities 
of grains and preparations, fats and oils and oth.er food products. 

Venezuela continues to need wheat flour, rice, preserved milk and other 
dairy products, vegetable oils, eg.ys, sugar and potatoes. It is self- 
sufficient in beef and poultry. Th.e United States na^r expect a diminishing 
market in Venezuela for baby chicks, powdered ^-^ilk, eg- s, sugar, fruit 
juices, and possiblv potatoes due to incre?sed domestic production and its 
policies of self -sufficiency in agricvilti^ral produces. The market for other 
agricultural products should e::pand x'ith increased population and continued 
prosperity. 

The agricultural situation in Ecuador appears to be excellent with a 
prospect that eicports ma^^ be the largest on record in 195^4. This is in 
spite of gloomy prospects for exports of rice anc Panama h?ts. 

Food supplies in the Do minican Republic are adequate and production of 
basic foods shows an upwei-d trend, .Exports of agricultural products, with 
the exception of sugar vjill be higher in 195 U th.an in 19>3 and prospects for 
1955 are good. In Haiti local shortages of food exist because of hurricane 
and flood danage and a small coffee crop is expected in 195U and 1955. 

Argentina: The prospects for agricultural supplies in Argentina for 195^- 
55 ar'S'' ^eTfcFall:/ good, with the probable exception of edible oils. Official 
reports on crop conditions range from good to excellent and on the whole crops 
are considered in better condition than in 1953 -5U, although total area \-j±ll 
be smaller. 

Production of all grains in Argentina lias been relativel-s^ good for the 
past two years. Supplies have been sufficient to cover all r'o' lestic needs 
ard pro<.dde substantial quantities for export. During the 1953-5U season in 
particular, e::ports were heavy, and it na;"- be the big; est grain-e^cpor ting 
season of the past 20 years, V'ith the heav^ shipment o.? :;rains, especially 
vjheat, the carry-in stocks for t'le 1955 season are e:q:^ected to be considerablv 
smaller than a year earlier, but t!ie excellent prospects for the 195^-55 wheat 
crop leave little doubt thrt the supplies of ;:rain for domestic use will be 
more than adecvrte durinc 1955. 



17 



Efforts to e:qDort grains apparently will be fully as ac ive as during the 
precedin;^ season. Sales under bilateral arran^e^ients and for soft currencies 
will be eas2''" so far as quantities are concerned, but obtaining satisfactory 
prices in view of heavy world supplies will be a continuing difficulty for the 
official bu;n.ng and selling agency, IA.PI (Argentine Trade Promotion Ijistitute)* 

The large accumulation of linseed oil in the hands of lAPI (about 361^,000 
short tons) at the beginning of the 1953-5U season was reduced to 55^000 tons 
by October 1 tlirough barter deals and straight sales by lAPI. Sowings for 
the 195U-55 flaxseed crop may be about the same as a year ago or show only a 
modest increase, but the outlook is for excellent yields. Edible oil produc- 
tion in Argentina has been decreasing and finally reached the point of 
exhausting previously accumulated stocks, and imports of about l6,500 short 
tons of oil were necessary in 19Sh% Early optimism for the 195U-55 crop is 
lessening at present and it now appears that the further deterioration in sun- 
flowerseed prospects can only be directly reflected in further import needs 
next year in spite of increased sowings. 

Heavier consumption of beef, mutton and lamb in Argentina in 19^h shows a 
continuation of livestock recovery, a government policy to maintain fairly 
adequate and low priced supplies of meat for local consumption at the expense 
of ejcports. Domestic consumption was about 90 percent of production in 195Ua 
Livestock numbers still are being built up, however, and this should be 
reflected in increased slaughter during the coming year. 

Argentine exports of wool during the 1S53-5U wool 3^ear ending in September 
were about 200 million pounds and are expected to continue large, mostly as a 
result of barter arrangements •vxith European countries, 

Brazil ; Production of most of Brazil's principal food and fiber crops in 19$h- 
^5 is expected to increase over that of a year ar,o, Oiitlook for food supplies 
in 19^5 is generally favorable, but much depends on weather during January-June, 
economic factors, and the character of Government policy. Com production may 
be down from the record crop of 1953-5^4 but present stocks are large. Produc- 
tion of wheat also "aay be slightly less in 195U-55 than the previous harvest 
of 25 million bushels because of unusuallir heavy rains during the planting 
season, i^neat is Brazil's most important agricultural import. In 1955 imports 
ma-,^ totcl about the same as in 195U — a record of 73 million bushels 
(including flour). Increased consumption over the past few years has resulted 
in steadily rising imports in spite of high support prices for domestically 
produced wheat. 

Important export crops are coffee, cotton, and cacao. Tlie declines in the 
export quantity and price of coffee in mid-195U worsened an already acute foreign 
exchange situation, ^jitli particular reference to dollar areas, i'any of Brazil's 
minor export products are over-priced in the world market, and their e:q3ort must 
be facilitated through trade a^^reements, subsidy, or under-invoicing. Both 
cotton and cacao aro moving into ^^xport at good" prices. 

Imports of food commodities, mth the exception of wheat and flour and possibly 
dried fish, were substantially reduced in 19^h, and because of the shortage of 
exchange, especially of dollars, imports currently are being reduced fur'ther or 
are bein^ sought in sof t-currenc^" areas or countries wit'"' which Brazil has a 
trade balance. Prospects are not bright, therefore, for e^T>anrling dollar sales 



of United Gtates aQricultuxal pioducts in hruvM f'ui'ing 1S^5^, except for \rheat 
and floux, Argentina is the principal source for these lattt:r prof^'^jcts, but 
the United States should be able to supply a substantial portion of the impoi-t 
needs. 

Other Southern Latin Ai,ierica ; Over-all crop proouction in 1953-yU in Uruguay , 
lead by a record xjheat harvest, was slightly higher t'lan in previous years. 
The outlook for 19Sh-S^ is for continued hirh production. This year's vrheat 
crop should suppl?/ all of Uru[-;u.ay's requirements and permit at least 11 million 
bushels for export, vJool production also set a new record, but it appears that 
beef exports will decline sor.iewhat in 195? since high domestic consumption rates 
are not expected to clian'^e. 

Bolivian food production is expected to show some increase as a result of 
a food production program, out the increase will not be of any appreciable 
importance for at least another two years. Bolivia still must rely on foreign 
markets for such items as wheat, fats and oils, dairy products, sugar, rice, 
and meat, '.ihile at present all wheat flour and fats and oils are being supplied 
by the United States under grants-in-aid, other products being purclmsed by 
Bolivians such as dried end evaporated milk, sr,'^ar, rice and meats are being 
obtained from other countries because of t le liijh level of United States prices. 

Paraguayan agricultiiral supplies reached usual levels in lS5h ^■d.th the 
exception of cottonseed oil whicli is the basic cookinr oil of Paraguay, 'Jith 
partial failure of the cotton crop, an acute shortage of tliis oil has developed. 
Some imports have been made from, Argentina and the United States, but a 
shortage of about 1,600 short tons still exists. 

Peru: Cotton and sugar account for over I4O percent of the total valne of 
Peruvian exports. Indications now point to a su^ar crop in 19^5 waicli will 
permit exports of aboi t Ul40,000 short tons and cotton exports are e:qDected to 
set a new record. The national production of wheat continues to fail to meet 
domestic requirements by an increasing margin. Import needs of wheat for 1955 
are expected to reach about 10 million bushels, I!e otiations for the purchase 
of this wheat have not yet been completed, 

Chilean farm production was low in 195U and a srbstantial food deficit 
occurred. Output of grains, including rice, showed a decline from a -"-ear 
earlier. Other croi^s vrhich were retarded and damaged h-\r unfavorable spring 
weather conditions include garbanzos, lentils and fn^.it, Althor'Mi the area in 
wheat has been increased for the 195U-55 crop, yields are expected to be beloX'J 
average because of tne dr^' weather during the end of the -dnter and into sprin'- 
and a wheat deficit of about l5 million b-'shels is expected for 1955, Edible 
oil imports require.nerts ma-'.^ approximate 25,000 short tons during t/;e --ear and 
sugar imports 2UIi,00C short tons. 



^•lESTERN EUROPE AND FRENCH NORTH .^JRICA 



With favorable conditions for both wholesale and retail demand for 
agricultural products, and crops not quite as satisfactory as they were 
last year J Western Europe is likely to import more wheat, feedgrains, 
vegetable oils, citrus fruit, tobacco, and cotton in 19^h-$^» 

. 'Je stern Europe will get less in the way of agricultural products 
from Eastern Europe, where harvests have been nnsatisf actory. Prospects 
of increased imports by Western Europe from the United States have been 
improved by the liberalization of dollar imports for various agricultural 
products by some countries, and United States legislation facilitating 
the sale of surplus farm products abroad. 

Production ; ^Testern Europe's harvest was not as uniformly favorable in 
19bh as in 1953. 'Jhilc quantitatively the outturn of grains and potatoes 
was again very large, rains and storms at harvest time damaged the quality 
of the grain over the entire western, northern and central parts of Europe, 
The sugar beet crop was much belox^r the large harvest of 19$3 , and sugar 
content generally is reduced. For olive oil 1951 was an off-year, vjith 
lower production cyclically expected; but the decline from 19^3 was 
extraordinary - down to about one-half of that year's production. 

'-Iheat (and total grain) production in Italy and Greece is sharply 
down - in Spain and France shrrply up. The decline of wheat output in 
Italy, as well as Western Germany, ;:ustria, Denmark, the Ibited Kingdom 
and Greece is estimated at 70 million bushels, whereas the increase in 
Spain and France alone comes to 112 million, /.dditional increases in 
the other Western European countries raise the regional total well beyond 
the record output of 1953. 

T„uality of the crop, however, is much less satisfactory and a 
relatively largo share will be feed wheat unusable for milling purposes, 
because of high moisture content. Total production of rye is up because 
of the increase in Germairy, Feedgrain production was down from a year 
earlier with noticeable reductions in barley and oats in the United 
Kingdom and com in Italy, Grass was good much of the season, while 
hay crops in northern, western, and central Europe were damaged by 
excessive rain. 

Large potato crops were reported from France, the Low Oountrics, and 
Germany, with a reduction (partly in acreage) in the British Isles, Kcepin 
quality is said to be lox^r because of too much moisture. Early German 
reports indicated an increase in suj-ar beet output, while practicallj'- all 
other countries rupoi'tf d docliTK'C, cypoci nlly drastic in the United T^ingdom 
Denmark, Polgium, and France, 



20 



Prod-uction of oilseeds - mostly because of a large increase of acreage 
in Sweden - is up in 195U. ixreagc and output in Frfnce again declined 
ovring to less favorable price-relationships , The decline in the production 
of olive oil was especially marked in the rberia.n peninsula. 

Production of plums, cherrieSj and peaches in 195h was somewhat 
lower than in 19^3, but above the average of recent years. Output of 
apples is above 19^3 ?^nd much above the average; pears arc somewhat below 
19^3. The crop of citrus fruits in 19^h~^S in the Northern Tfediterraneaa 
area is likely to be somewhat below partly because of the effects 

of last February's freeze in Spain,. Vegetable crops in central, northern 
and western Europe were poor. 

Livestock numbers, on the whole, have further increased, though hog 
numbers are now declining in some countries. Price-relationships, because 
of the somewhat less favorable feed situation and a decline in prices for 
livestock and eggs, foreshadow a less profitable position in the present 
marketing year. Yet it is unlikely that there will bo significant changes 
in the output and disposition of meat, milk, rnd eggs in 19^h-55. 

French North i'^frica had another good wheat crnp in 195U> exceeding the 
high levels of 19^2 and even 1953. There- was a decline in barley output for 
the second consecutive season, due to a 10 percent drop in T^Torocco» Corn 
output in French Morocco declined by as much as one-third due to lack of 
rainfall during the growing season in the North. Output of olive oil 
declined by one-third in Tunisia, the main producer, while the smaller 
crops of Morocco and /.Igeria increased over last year. The citrus crop 
will be still larger than in 19^3~Sh if the present forecast for a record 
output in Morocco and another largo crop in Algeria and Tunisia is realized. 

Stocks* In ^"lestcrn Europe taken as a whole carry-in stocks of ^rain at the 
beginning of the 195U-55 marketing season were somewhat below a year ago, 
largely bceause of declines in the United Kingdom, Germany, and the 
Scandinavian countries. Reductions in food and other commodity stocks were 
rather general in the United Kingdom since government trading has largely 
ceased and the private trade, for reasons of finance and risk, is loss 
inclined to carry large reserves* ^/hilc stocks of grain and tobacco in 
the United Fingdom were thus reduced to a bare minimum in 19^3-514 ^ the 
Government is still selling substantial stocks of cotton ^nd sugar. 

Sugar stocks, in general, probably increased on the Continent c>uring 
19S3-5k '-nd will cushion the impact of lower production this year. Conti- 
nental stocks of tobacco and raw cotton continue low. 

Eco nomic Conditions and Consumption Outlook ; Economic expansion has 
ccrtinucd through 195^-1 in 'Jcstcrn Europe, and received additional support 
from the greater confidence in the business outlook displayed in the United 
States. Main props of the continued expansion in 'Jestern Europe i-rere to bo 
found in building activity and incrcasrng cxoorts. Rising currency reserves 
have increas ' the liquidity of the banking system, interest rates arc 
(■•.eclining, an', the dcm'-^nd for credit to finance the expanding investment 



21 



is being satisfied without difficultyo Indicartive of Western Europe -s gains 
in basic strength and international e<3<raomic position are the recent 
discussions of its participation in economic development aid for under- 
developed countries. Not only the United Kingdom and Switzerland j but also 
Belgium, the Netherlands, and Western Germany have shown great interest in a 
practical approach to facilitating capital exports for this purpose* 

While investment was thus the prime factor in continued European improve- 
ment, propensities to consume also seem to have been strengthened^ Tax 
reductions in a number of countries have added to disposable personal income 
and consiimotion has generally risen throughout the area. Temporary di^ri- 
culties as a result of special situations in a few countries (drought and 
resultant crop deficits in Yugoslavia, over-expansion in Denmark with 
resuloant foreign exchange crisis and remedial measures to restrict record 
consuiiiption) notwithstanding, Western Eurone's economic situation has further 
improved and the improvement is likely to be maintained. 

The cutlcok both for domestic consumer buying power and f€sr Western , 
Europe's inter:3ational buying power — strengthened by continued imprcve- 

me.it in it& foreign balance and through special Uiiited Sta^.es programs — 

is therefore favorable. In accordance with this general economic situation 

there have been luither relaxations in import controls and policy regi- 

ueata-&aci, though important policy obstacles to freer trade with the dollar 

area persist. 

Policies ; The encouraging progress made in Europe in 1953 towards the 
restoration of a freer market economy for agricultural products was 
accelerated in 1954.. ^'bre products have been handed back from government 
management to private trade. Imports from the dollar area have experienced 
substantial liberalization, either through removal of quantitative control, 
or more liberal practices in the licensing procedure, Intra~European trade 
also has been included in further liberalization. 

There are dark spots, however, in the policy picture. Farm protection 
continues strong and aggressive over most of Eiirope, and quantitative 
restrictions on imports — originally conceived and condoned on balance-of- 
payments grounds — have become strongly entrenched as measures of protection 
and of bilateral commercial policy. And it is significant that the farm 
communities in quite a number of European countries cling to these and other 
types of support even at a time when their domestic markets are well sustained 
by rising purchasing power and expanding general economic prosperity. Much 
is being done by countries individually and collectively (through the 
European Productivity Agency of the Organization for European Economic 
Cooperation — OEEC — and otherwise) to promote productivity in agric\ilture, 
but a systematic movement toward increasing the pressure of competition 
thus far is not among those measures^ Even decidedly retrograde policies 
have again cone to the foreground of disciission. Thus, within plans for 
desirable polltrcal and economic cooperation between France and Western 
Oerroapy the idea of long-term purchase agreements for German takings of 



French wheat, meat, and stig'^r has been ventilated: -^nd the Commit tee rn 
the Development of Trade "^nd on Agricultural Prcblems of the Econcmic 
Commission for Europe have recently shc-f-m revival :f interest in the 
possibility of long-term bilateral purchase contracts between ^Testern 
and Eastern European countries. 

The following spi^cific developments have hif:^hli:2hted the general trend 
toward trade liberalizetion, and hrvc- special importance for the future 
of European import demrnd for dollar area products. 

In the United Kingdom decontrol of almost all phases of food distri- 
bution was completed during 19514; the last commodities to bo derationed 
were fats and oils in May and meat in July. Distribution of imported 
canned fords will be entirely relinquished by the Ministry'" of Food in 
January, 1955. Most of the agricultural trade has been returned to 
private channels; price formation and distribution are now more freely 
determined by the normal market forces, though the Government continues 
to exercise some direct a^-nd indirect controls for general economic reas'^ns 
as well as for the protection of farmers in Britain and in other Commonwealti 
areas. The Government is winding up its long-term bulk purchase commitments, 
However, in some cases it will still import in 1955 such commodities as 
sugar, bacon, butter, cheese, nonfat dr^^' milk solids, orange concentrate, 
oils an'" oilseeds from the Pacific Islands, 

The Government thus continues t'-^- be an important trader. In ccnjuncti'^i 
with this movement toward the restor ^'■•tion ':>f -"esirable market forces, the 
Government's farm support system has been shifted from fixed support prices 
to direct deficiency or subsidy payments t"" farmers, in some instances 
through marketing boards. This is now the supp'^rt system for grain, meat, 
wool, eggs, and potatoes. In the case of fluid milk the Government, 
through the Milk Marketing Board, guarantees a minimum price. The termina- 
tion of rationing and the considerable reduction in price control and bulk 
buying has resulted in the transfer of the remaining functions the 
T'linistry of Food to the Ministry "f Agriculture. This transfer is to be 
completed within a few months. 

Outstanding in the liberalization '^f trade in the United Kingdom 
was the reopening of the Liverpool Cotton Exchange ---nd the restoration 
of complete freedom to import cotton from any source. In adudition, the 
grain trade - liberalized in 1953 - was free for ell practical purposes 
during all of 1951. Beans, ^Yy peas, some seeds and many fats and oils 
(except lard, tallow, and cottonseed-oil) were olaced '-■n open indivir'ual 
license. As a result of this liberalization the rel-tive position the 
United States in the United Kingdom market has improved for coarse grains, 
dry beans, soybeans, linseed, rnd cotton. Other commodities continue to 
be controlled by import quotas, an^'! for s^me no quotas arc boinp; grrntcd 
at this time. 

In 'jestern Germany the Government freed fr^m qu?ntitrtive restrict.! ns 
p rcvi ou sly a-.:;pli(;':'. f impj t t s from the dollar area r Ir.rRc number f pr 'uct 
ijacluding r^w cotton on ^ lintors, leaf tobac-cc, inedible tallow an^' hog-prca 



23 



for technical uses (February , second liberalization list 

(November) for dollar inports did not include any agricultural products. 
The import control exercised by the so-called import and storage agencies, 
for grains J edible fats and dair^/ products, meat and meat products, 
and sugar, is not at all times applied in discriminatory fashion; hoxirevcr, 
it can be and is being so applied whenever commercial policy reasons 
make it desirable for the Government to direct its purchases of these 
products to certain markets, 

Belgium- Luxembourg and the Netherlands , joined in prGliminary pha^-es 
of an economic union, took a further step toward trade liberalization in 
June 19^k x^rhen they issued an extensive list of commodities which can be 
imported from the dollar area without restriction. a result of this 

and previous actions taken by these countries individually, the Benelux 
Union no longer applies discriminatory limitations on the imr^orts of any 
agricultural products from the United States, though agritniltural producers 
remain effectively protected by global import control^ and price management. 

On October 1, 195U, Sweden liberalized a substantial portion of its 
imports, Agricultural commodities now entirely free from quantitative 
restrictions include cotton, rice, dried fruits, nuts, canned fruits and 
fruit juices, fresh and canned vegetables, hops, and others. For still 
other commodities import licenses, while not open, will be granted freely 
for imports at regular or premium (^,ransit») dollar rates; commodities 
on this latter list include citrus fruits, grapes, apples, pears, peaches, 
tobacco, and flaxseed. Other countries, while not fox'inally Placing dollar 
commodities on open general licenses, have liberalized their procedure of 
issuing specific licenses for imports from the dollar area. They are more 
inclined nau toward such limited liberalization because of the substantial 
further improvements in their gold and dollar reserves. 

In France the new measures of agricultural protection and management 
were induced in 1953 by the emergence of surpluses, and were fuither 
solidified under the special por-jcrs for economic rehabilitation granted 
the Government in />.ugust, 195)4. The program that is slowlj'' taking shape 
aims both at short-run direct prcitoctaon of agriculture and of agricultural 
expansion, and at more long-run increases in agricultural productivity. 
The basic problem is the disparity between the high French costs and farm 
prices and the lower prices abroad, simultaneously with a production level 
that yields surpluses for export. 

The short-run measures include stabilization machinery designed to 
support farm prices by use of storage programs and/or subsidies to exports, 
as well as production control if necessary. Exports of wheat, sugar, meat, 
and some other products are being subsidized out of general government 
revenue, special producer funds, reimbursement for taxes, or special 
currency premiums on dollar imports of products not otherwise admitted. 
Legislation provides for the reduction of the sugar, alcohol rn<' vxine 
surpluses. In November 195U measures also were taken to re-expand oilsect'. 



producti on zrv^ .)rovi'.'.o farmt^rs with an alternative crcp (rapescocl) for 
('ive^rtcd sugarboet rnr' possibly some wheat acre-age. Tunisia was inclu-'tid 
in the common Franco-/ Igerian grain market in i'.pril 19$U) "nd French Morocco 
will Tirobably be included during the current season. In Octr^ber 19$h > 
a decree was passed reforming the French overseas territories customs 
rep-imc, and other measures are planned to enhance the alreacfy close 
economic and financial cooperation between France and those territories. 
It is still the Government's Dolicy not to m.ake available dollajrs for 
the purchase of United States agricultural products other than cotton 
and tobacco, though when a commodity is temporarily in short supply 
imports of a necessary quantity from the United States arc authorized. 
Other imports may take place at "oremium rates, within compensation 
trade arrangements. 

Trade ; The lower crop outturn in some countries, the reduction in carry- 
overs, and the higher moisture content of the >jhcat harvested this year 
in northern, central, and ''Te stern Europe make it Drobable that European 
imports of overseas wheat will be larger in 19^h/^^ than they were in 
1953/5U (when they dropped to three-fourths of the previous season). 
The requirement will be largely for good hard wheat, Intra-European 
exTDort supplies - from France and Sweden combined - will be larger than 
they were in 19S'J>/^h, but much of this supply is wheat for feeding 
because of the unsatisfactory quality of the crop. Exports from Eastern 
Europe will bo smaller; in fact. Eastern Europe is in need of imp'^rts 
this year. 

Feed requirements in ^fcstern Europe are likely to be larger than in 
I953-5I4, because of higher livestock numbers. Output of feedgrains, on 
the other hand, was lower than last year. However, much larger quantities 
of feed wheat are available this year, on an intra-Euronean basis, and 
the supply of potatoes for feed will also be larger in 'Jestern Gennajiy, 
France, and the Low Countries, Therefore, x^jhile it is probable that 
requirements for overseas coarse grains will increase this year, the 
increase is likely to be modest. In the United Kingdom and Denma.rk, 
where livestock numbers are at recor'l levels and both crops and stocks 
..■f feedgrains and potatoes are down, import requirements will be 
definitely above last season. 

In viovr of the disappointing results of the olive crop in the 
Mediterranean area. Import requirements for vegetable oils -n' oilseeds 
in some countries are likely to show a substantial increase. Import 
requirements for deciduous fruits should not differ greatly from those 
of 1953-5l4j despite the larger crop of apples in a number '^f importing 
countries, Consumor buying power is on the increase and fruit consumption 
benefits from it, Jimnlarly, the trenrl ctTisumcr demand for citrus 
fruit continues upward and irnijort requirements should again be higher in 

If prices are right, larger imports from outside the Mediteiranean 
area - where citrus crops are reported below 1953-5Ii - will bo rcquii-od. 



25 



The improvement in holdings of gold and dollj^r reserves of most 
coim tries in .''Je stern Europe augurs well for 1951|-55 imports of leaf 
tobacco from the United States. This improvement in the , financial 
position of these countries has been accompanied by liberalization of 
import restrictions on dollar tobacco imports into Western Germany and the 
Benelux countries. Stocks of United States tobaccos in the United Kingdom: on 
July Ij I95I1, were below those of a year earlier , and spme rebuilding 
appears necessary, especially in view of an increase in consumption in 
recent months. 

Tobacco consumption also appears to be increasing in a niomber of 
other European countries, such as Switzerland and Western Germany, and 
this should be reflected in larger takings of United States leaf. Generally 
improved economic conditions, greater piirchasing power, and the lai-ger 
number of persons of smoking age — all shoiild be reflected in larger 
exports in l95li-55« On the other hand, larger crops of tobacco in a 
mimber of important producing countries that do not require payment for 
tobacco in dollars and relatively lower prices for certain grades and 
types, to some extent may offset the factors favoring increased exports 
from this country. 

Imports of raw cotton into Western Europe during 1953-5)4 were up 
one million bales from the low level of the previous year. Because of the 
aggressive cotton -export programs of foreign exporting countries, namely; 
Egypt, Brazil, and Turkey, the United States' share in this higher rate 
of European imports was only moderately improved. In the early months 
of the current year, activity in the textile industry was being maintained 
at a high rate. Stocks of cotton in Western Europe on July 31, 195Uj 
were low and imports in 19514-55 should equal or slightly exceed the 
improved rate .of the previous year, ^<flth prices of United States' 
cotton in most instances fully cotnpetitive with comparable growths 
from other exporting countries, it should be possible during the 
current season for the United States to obtain a larger share in ''Jestern 
Europe's cotton imports. At the present time there are no restrictions 
on imports of United States cotton into Western Germany, the United 
Kingdom, Sweden^ Switzerland and for all practical purposes, Belgium 
and the Netherlands, 



EASTERN EUROPE 
( excluding the USSR ) 



With food production below last year's level, exports from Eastern Europe 
to the west are expected to be smaller in 195I|-55 than in 1953-5ii, and imports 
from the west are likely to increase. Eastern Eiorope,, including Yugoslavia, 
may even shift temporarily from a net exporter to a net importer of food from 
the west. Exports to Western Europe throu,^hout the postwar period have been 
far smaller than in prewar years, when Eastern Europe supplied a substantial 
share of Western Europe's imports of breadgrains, coarse grains, sugar potatoes 
meat and eggs. 

Production . Such information as is available on Eastern Europe indicates 
a poorer harvest in 195U than in 1953 when output was still materially below 
the prewar level. Unfavorable weather for grain was reported from the time 
of preparation for planting in the fall of 19^3 to harvest in the summer of 
195U. 

Output of grain in Yugoslavia, where breadgrain crops were especially 
hard hit, is little more than four -fifths as large as in 1953. Among the 
satellite countries, Poland alone appears to have had a larger grain crop 
this year than last. Output of potatoes and sugar beets, largely concentrated 
in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Eastern Germany, seems to have been satisfactory, 
but in Eastern Germany at least the sugar content of the beets is doTcjn. 

Policies . The "New Course" in agriciilture, initiated in the satellite 
countries last year, has been reflected in a relaxation of the pressure upon 
producers to join collectives; a decline in the number and area of collectives 
in some countries; and in a somewhat friendlier policy toward private producers 
who received modest concessions with regard to compulsory delivery quotas and 
the allocation of means of production,, 

In Yugoslavia, where the drive for collectivization was relaxed in 1951 
and all compulsory delivery quotas were abandoned by March 1953 > the government 
continues to employ the subsequently-adopted system of voluntary contracting 
for breadgrains at favorable prices. In April 195U, Tito announced that he 
hoped for voluntary association of the peasants into some form of cooperatives, 
but that he had no intention of using force, or of reducing below the present 
25 acres the maximum size of land holding permitted. 

Consumption and trade . Food shortages, which continued throughout the 
region in greater or less degree, were mitigated in some countries by the 
release of stocks and heavier imports of food during 1953-5U. The food 
situation during the 195U-55 year is bound to remain precarious. In the 
satellite area, Czechoslovakia and Eastern Germany together are estimated to 
require some 3^000,000 short tons of grain, and Hiingary, traditionally a grain 
exporter, may be a net importer in 19Sh-$S» Ordinarily imports come from 
other Iron Curtain countries, but this season 275^000 short tons have already 
been bought from France through AdiH^EX, the Hungarian State Agricultural 
Foreign Trade Organization, acting as buying and distributing agent for wheat 
for Hiingary, Poland and Eastern Germany, Yugoslavia puts its wheat import 



27 



requirements at more than 1,000,000 short tons, (l short ton equals 33o33 bushels) 
Sdliports are expected to come mostly from the United States under the 
economic aid programs and Public Law U80. 

During the past year Yugoslavia made trado agreements with the satellite 
countries, and on October 1, 19^k, trade arrangements were concluded between 
the Yugoslavian Chamber of Foreign Trade and the Soviet Foreign Trade Organi- 
zation. As far as is known, grain is not among the commodities to be traded. 
The exchanp-e between Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union is to include Soviet 
cotton and industrial products against Yugoslav meat, tobacco, hemp and indus- 
trial products. 

At the November 19^k meeting of the Committee on Agricultural Problems of 
the Economic Commission for Europe, it became evident that the satellites 
would have less to export to the west in 1954-55 then in 1953-54, though it was 
indicated that Rumania would be able to meet its corn export commitments, and 
that Poland expected to increase its exports of butter and maintain exports of 
bacon and eggs at least at the 19^3 level. It is also probable that satellite 
imports of agricultural products from Western Europe will show an increase, as 
a result of larger takings not only of grain but also of meat, fats, including 
butter, and some other food products. 



SOVrET_^NIOM 

The Soviet agricultural situation in 195^ ^^^-^ characterized "by: 

(1) extreme regional variations in weath'-r conditions and crop yields; 

(2) an increase of acreage, especially under wheat and cotton, signalizing the 
"beginning of a far-reaching new program of acreage expansion; (3) a crop "oro- 
duction generally not greatly different from the low level of 1953; (^) little 
improvement in the livestock situation; (5) sizable imports and little exports 
of foodstuffs; and (6), a generally very active government policy aiming to 
expand the lagging agricultural production. 

Weather : Extreme regional variations in weather conditions took place 
during the 195^ crop year, A number of the southern regions su"fered from a 
severe drought, vrhile weather conditions were fevorable to cror-s in the East, 
The drought began in some of the southern regions in the autumn of 1953 &^<i 
was followed by an abnormally cold winter, A lete and cold spring delayed farm 
operations for approximately one month in all imnortant agricultural regions. 
The summer months were abnormally hot and dry in a large and important foodr- 
"oroducing area in the Ukraine £md Volga basin, with a consequent hepvy reduction 
in crop yields. The prolonged and mild fall, however, in this area, as vrell as 
in mo^t other regions 0" European USSR, has facilitated the harvesting of 
late cro-ns -nnd tVie "nlovring of land for s-^ring "olanting in 1955» 

By contrast, in the eastern regions (Urr-ls, Siberia and Kazakhstan) good 
werther conditions during the grovdng sef;son were follov/ed by heavy rains during 
the harvest, which interfered vdth the gathering of crops, and resulted in 
heavy crop losses. S^^ring v/heat is the dominant crop in these eastern regions, 
as veil a.s in the Volga area which suffe^^ed from the drought, while winter wheat 
is the leading cron in the drought-stricken Ukraine. 

Crop Acreage and Production : The publication of cro-n acreage pnd -oroduc- 
tion figures, though somewhat less restricted than during the Stalin era, is 
still very limited and unsystematic. It was officially reported, that the total 



cnvfn r.rer. for 19^^ v'-^s I3 j^'ercfent above 1950i ^'''licli v^ould "brinf it to ^i-OS 
mi lion acyts, covv-^.red. with 388 mi/. lion in 1^53, 385 million in 1^^2, ^ndi 372 
mi lion in 19^0, for a^o-nroximp tel;;' the same territory. Of the l^^rpe increase 
of 20 mi linn acres, rei^ortfed in 1^5^, ne' rlv 9 mil ion con "tituted the new 
area brought under cultivation and sov/n mostly to wheat la?t sTir'.ng in the 
eastern regions, as part of a hu^e acr^.^age expansion program.. Inert-? ses were 
re' orted also for cotton, corn, po tat oe s , sugar be'^ts, sunflovgr seed (which is 
t.hc no.st important ollstied cror' in the USSH), ve^retables , and various forrge 
rnd -"ilage crops. 

In the ne-i-' drive for increased food and feed -production, however, there 
u-.e.y hrve occurred a substantial decrease in the large acrerge under perennial 
grp'ses in the drier regions. Until l^S^, the growing of perennial grpsses, 
as an essential ingredient of a crop rotation system, was gener?ll,v encouraged 
by the ICrerlm, des;-ite the lov- yields of such grasses in the drier regions. 
But errly in 195^ h'^rmfulness of this policy w?s finally admitted end it 
was reversed in favor of the better yielding spring grains. It is not clear, 
vrithnut a more detailed breaJcdovm, whether such a decrease in the acrerge 
devoted to :^-erennial grasses and a shift to other crops actually occurred, and 
vrhether it vas fully reflected in the reported overall acreage increase, 

No official •nroduction figures were loublished for the grain crops of 
195^ and 1953, when the exaggerated "biological" r)rehj^\rvest method of estimrtinf 
crops was a-nparently abandoned. The official statement on this year's grain 
croT) was that it "will be somewhat larger than in 1953 »" when weather conditions 
were also "'oni^avor: ble in man;'' important agricultural regions, and barn -oroduc— 
tlon low. 

The -oroductinn o"^' breadgrains (vrheat and rye) in 1?$^ is ar.Tarently some- 
i-'hat higher than in 19'53i due to the increased ^'heat acreage and good yields 
in the eastern regions, v/hich proba'^ly offset the lo^'^es suffered in the 
dro\:i^'ht- stricken areas of the south. The -nroduction of feedgrains, however, 
e-n-oears to be lower. Potato -Droduction, vfhich i^ spread over a large area and 
was onlj^ ■nartially affected bv the droxight, at least equalled and probably 
exceeded that of 195'^' Su^ar be^^t production, heavily concentrated in the 
Ukraine, "as adversely -fleeted by the drought, and wa.s probably below the If'S'^ 
level. Cotton production in 195^ ^''^s apparently higher tlian in 19.53 • ^'^ 
relatively good yields and to an incre- se in the area planted to cotton, 
eonsiderable harvesting difficulties, however, were rer>orted. 

Grrein Deliveries : The gov..rnment plan of com-pulsory deliveries and extra 
purchases 0:^ grain from collective farms and deliveries of state farms was 
reT^orted as slightly overfulfilled by November 5» 195^i ahead of schedule. 
Grain collections exceeded those on the same date of last- y'^ar by 5*2 million 
short tons, of vrhich wheat constituted 3T-«5 ""ercent or ''5 million bushels. 
For a number of regions, hoviever, grain collection goals were set lower than 
1' st y-^c r owing to the drought. For the Ukraine, for instance, the collection 
goal vras reduced by more than ^ million short tons. But such reductions were 
more th'n offset by the incre- sed collections of 7.7 million short tons in the 
Urals, Siberia and Kia.zakhstan. In general, com~)ulsory collection quotas for 
grain at low ""ixed prices we.-^e reduced this year, but the reduction was more 
than compensated by incre-aced go veriuneut -nnrchases of grain at 'trices above 
those "oaid for compulsory deliveries. In addition to the above- -mention e>d direct 
collections, the government obtains a large su"">"^ly of grain through the ■):?ayment 
in kind by the collective farms to the state machine-tractor stations servicing 
them. There were comnlaints thrt these collections wero lagging in 19^^. 



29 



Livestock: The livestocic situation has long b.en on^ of the major weak- 
nesses in Soviet agriculture. Official drta, released in SeT)tum"b .r, 1953, reveal 
cd th£t most livestock numbers at the t)eginning of that year wer-e helovr the -ore- 
collectivization period, despite a very considerpble inert- se of ^lo'^ulation. 
In 1953. the annua.l census of livestock i^as shifted from Janu-ry to October to 
obvic-te the holding of livestock iintil the enumeration had been' comTileted and 
thus to economize on fodr^er, vhich lias been a weak spot in the livestock situ- 
rtion. -.".ccordingly, livestock statistics vrhich vdre published in 195^ are not 
corarip^fble vith those for preceding yerrs. The 1953-54 winter w?s unusually 
cold in mrny regions of the Soviet Union, ?nd vdth continuing inadequate fodder 
Ru^v-iiep pnd shelter facilities end poor husbandry nractices, only a small 
incrcpse in livestock numbers took -nlace between October I953 and October 195^. 
Des-^ite re- orted increased government collections of mert pnd milk, shortages 
o^ rnimrl nroducts at the controlled -'irices were experienced in 195^, 

"Reduction of Food Prices ; In A^^ril, 1*^54, the government orde-ed the 
seventh successive reduction in retail prices o:^ foodstuffs and other consumers' 
foods sold in government stores, which constitute the nrmni-nal retail outlet 
in Soviet cities. The 19^4 ^--rice reduct on on foodstuffs "as smaller, both in 
terms of the number o.-*^ items involved end the extent of reductions, than in 
1953. Ictu-lly, the food r.rice reductions in 19-^, like those of 1953. had 
les- effect on the total cost of food to the consumer than may a-^earc The 
sta "e store su;-> ly of fresh foo s, ^uch as ammal -oroducts, vegetables, includ- 
ing potatoes and fruit, was limited, and, in mcmy instances, non-existent. 
Therefore, urban consumers were forced to -ourchase most of their supplies of 
these commodities at much higher cost in the free market, i«'here little change 
of -.rice- has taken lolace in recent years. Information on the foori situa.tion 
in the more rem.ote interior is scant. While no s'^ecial food hardshins in the 
drought-stricken areas have come to light so far, they may develo-n later in 
the season unless measures a.re taken by the government to ■''irevent their 
occurrence. 



Retail Food Prices in Moscow State Stores on Specified Dates 





Jan, 1 


Jan. 1 


A'oril 1 


A^^ril 1 




19^0 


19^8 1/ 


19-3 


1954 


Food Item 


(R u b 1 


e s 2/ p 


e r kilo 


g r a m ^) 


■Rye brea-^ - black 


.85 


3.00 


1.35 


1.25 


^'•fheat bread - vrhite 


1.70 


7.00 


3.10 


2.95 


Beef - 1st quality 


1^.50 


30.00 


15.00 


15.00 


?ugar - lumr 


4.10 


15.00 


10.70 


10.70 


"^ut''". -r - svreet 


21.00 


64.00 


26.80 


96.80 


1_/ Following abandonment 


of rationing 


. 2j The 


value of the 


ruble canno" 


be stated accurately in 


terms of U.S. 


currency. 


The official excha.nge 


••ate has been fixed at 2 


U. S. cent« 


-n-T ruble. 


This rate 


does not re- 



■oresent the true purchasing rjower of the ruble nor does it reflect its 
depreciation since the beginning of World ¥ar II, ^7 kilogram equals 
2.2 ■pounds. 

Government Policy : The Soviet government policy during 195^ was directed 
tovards imp lementation of the pro^jram announced in the fall of 1953, ti incr jf se 
the economic incentives of collective farmers and their interest in ■''production. 
Measures ^^ere adopted to reduce taxation and com-nulsory delivery (collections) 
quotas and to increase prices at vhich the Soviet government purchases a 
number of farm products. In June of 195^, grain and oil seeds were added for 



30 



the first time to the li<=t of ■'Toducts on v^hich conrr-ul ?^ory delivery quotPS were 
reduced and increased relif nee -ts -nleced on extra quot,.- pxirc.hf ses at higher 
r)rices. All this h' s been do-iC, ho^'tver, without imT-airing- the basic structure 
of collective farin3ng, fOVbrnnent control fnd direction of vhich h£ s been in- 
creas ngl - tightened. The coni^ul^ory minimum of labor on collective ferms by 
their meiBb^rs ^as incrersed. 

The government also h^s taken pteps to increrse production through expansion 
of acreage. Plans were announced early in 19^^^ to increrse cotton rcr^-rge f.nd 
•production in the irrigated regions of vSovi t Central A?ia or Turkestan. An 
even more ambitious exr)£nsion -program was ado'nted for grfin production on the 
Virgin or long uncultivT'ted land, vrhich was mostly in -xstures or meadovrs in the 
easter-n r&,-ions. This t>rogra.m called for the planting in the s;'ir..ng of 195^ 
of additional 5»7 million acres, mostlj^ to "h at, and for rilowing u^-^ of a much 
larger area f50 tha.t in the spring of 19 5t 32 jOOr-, 000 acres could be seeded to 
grains. Actually, despite many organize tional shortcomings, tht, official goal 
for 'he culti V'.tion of this new land was exceeded and nearly 9 million acres 
were seeded in 19''^. Unusua.lly favorable wecther conditions during the growing 
season and good harvest in 195^ this normally semi-arid zone a-^^parently 
encouraged the goverMient to incrc;r3e the acruage goal to 3? million acres in . 
1955i nearly double it for 1956- This is, however, an area of precar- 1 

ious conditions for agricultural production, with light rainfall, frequently I 
recurring droijights, and normally low and unstable yields, vrhich ma-ces the I 
success o''" the new expansion ;nro ram seem problematical/ (See: "The New I 
Battle for Grain in Soviet Hussia," Fore ign Agricult ure, November 195^» " 
pp. lyi|-199.) 

Foreign Trade : Small grains, -■■principally wheat, h^ ve long constituted the 
traditionally important Ru^f?ian agricultural ex'oorts. In 1953—5^1 hovrever, 
grain exports to the non— Coi imunist world were small, --bout one million tons, 
though substantial shipments to Czechoslovakia and .'Crst Germany vrere also 
indicated. So far, in the 195^ '^5 season, the Soviet Union h;-' s not been active 
on the int-rnational grain raar].:et. On the other hand, in June, 19.5^ i one 
million bushels (22,000 tons) of barley vferc purchased by the Soviet Union from 
Canada, It vras claimed by the Tlussians that the barley is intended for brewing 
Dur^'-'Oses, It should be ]cept in mind, that di'^-^o^ial of the crops to domestic 
consum-^tion needs, stoc)cpiling and exr)orts de"'iend primarily on the decisions of 
the Soviet government .which has o monor)oly on foreign trade and controls the 
internal allocation of su-o-ilies. If, therefore, the Soviv^t government should 
envisage economic or political advrntages b^^ ex'iorting grain or other commodities 
it ffl'-^y make the supT)lies available, even at the expense of domestic needs. | 

The Soviet Union, vrhich has long experienced shortages of animal T^roducts 
q.nd fats, he s recently become signi ficant imriorter nd butter. The . 

increased im-norts a—x-trently are dictated by "he much publicized Soviet cam- | 
paign, since Stalin's de- th, to begin im- roving the living standards of the 
peo-"le, Soviet meat im-^ort"^ or contracts let from the non-Communist world 
du- ing 195^ wtre estimated to be over 2^0 million nounds, compared with less 
than 20 million in 1953* Duxing the calendar year 1953, butter ex'-)orts to the 
Soviet Union from the non-Cor r'unist world amounted to close to 77 million pounds 
and d\iring the first six months of 195^ to ov.r 35 million. Before the w\r, the 
Soviet Union exported butter, though it was high-priced and frequently scarce 
domestically, Th^re are indications t' at the Soviet Union will continue to be 
in the vrorld market for butter and meat during the current season. 



31 



THE MIDDLE EAST AM) ASIA 
(excluding China) 

AgricialtTiral production during the crop year 195^-55 iii the Middle 
East and Asia declined somewhat below the high level reached in the pre- 
ceding year. The major declines in volume occurred in India and Turkey, 
while slight increases occurred in Burma, Ceylon, Israel, and Egypt, and 
a substantial increase in Jordan. The index of total agricultural pro- 
duction declined during the year and from ikS to I38 in the Middle East 
and from II8 to 115 in South and Southeast Asia. 

In the Middle East the total wheat deficit for 1955^ including the 
grain equivalent of flour, is estimated at about 675^000 short tons plus 
any Turkish requirements in excess of current arrangements. This is 
distributed as follows: Israel 300,000 tons, Lebanon 150,000, and Turkey 
225^000. Export availabilities in the area are estimated at about 500,000 
short tons divided: Iraq and Syria 225^000 tons each and Iran 50,000. This 
leaves a visible net deficit for 195^-55 of about 175,000 short tons for the 
Middle East, in contrast with net exports of i4-35,000 short tons for the 
preceding year. 

For the free countries of South, Southeast and Northeast Asia for 1955 
the total foodgrain deficit is estimated at 9.1 million short tons of wheat, 
wheat flour, barley, and rice distributed as follows: India 3*0, Ceylon 
0.6, Malaya O.7, the Philippines O.3, Indonesia 0.5^ and Japan h.O. On the 
other hand, rice s\irpluses within the area are estimated as follows: Burma 
2.3^ Thailand 1.5> Taiwan O.3, South Korea 0.2, Vietnam and Cambodia 0.2; 
leaving a net deficit for the area of k.2 million short tons. This contrasts 
with a net foodgrain deficit for the area of k million tons for the previous 
year. 

Total consumption of raw cotton in Middle East and free Asia coiintries 
in 1953-5^ is estimated at Q,k- million 500 pound bales. Cotton production 
totaled 7.8 million bales, of which 1.8 million were exported to countries 
outside the area. Imports from coxmtries beyond the area totaled 2.U 
million bales. On a per capita basis, raw cotton consumption in the area 
totaled about 5 pounds cmpared with about 27 pounds in the United States. 

Total consumption of leaf tobacco in the Middle East and free Asia 
countries in 1953-5^ is estimated roughly at 2 billion pounds. For 1953 
exports from the area totaled about 2I4-O million pounds, and imports into 
the area about 80 million. Of this total the United States supplied 69.5 
million poiands, largely flue-cured type leaf. The principal markets for 
United States tobacco in the area -axe hhe Philippines, Indonefsia, Jj^pan, 
Thailand, and Egypt. 



Per Capita Food Intake u p_ Soroewjaat : F'">nd cans nmirLi on per capita improved 
slightly throughout the region diiring 1953-1954, although the people of 
Japan,. Indonesia, Taiwan, Lebanon, and Jordan consumed slightly less than 
they did in the previous year. The people of India and Pakistan consumed 
200 calories per person per day more than they did in 1952-53 because cf 
very favorable crop growing conditions, but the daily intake of 1950 
calories is still low. 

The decline in price for many agricultural products during the past 
two years is renewing balance-of -payments difficulties in several of the 
countries of Asia and the Middle East, notably Turkey, Iran, Jordan, Israel, 
Pakistan, and Indonesia. Iran's problem will ease as royalties come in from 
the recently reopened Abadan oil refineries, but the lack of foreign exchange 
is likely to be a continuing problem with these countries because of their 
large import requirements for industrial development. The decline in export 
grain prices during 195^^ and the lack of demand even at the reduced prices, 
foreshadowing possible further price declines, tend to aggravate the balance- 
of -payments problem for Turkey and Thailand, and may bring Burma into major 
difficulties. These developments are also likely to affect adversely the 
foreign exchange positions of Cambodia, Vietnam, South Korea, and Taiwan, 
which must dejjend on rice exports for a considerable portion of their foreign 
exchange earnings. 

The Middle East and Asian countries are also having major difficulties 
in meeting the internal local currency costs of their economic development 
and social and educational programs. The people of the Middle East and Asia 
who are not needed on the land wsint productive non-farm employment and they 
also want better schools, better roads, better housing, and better communi- 
cations, and they want them now, not in some distant future, all of which is 
causing the affected free governments to draw upon their financial resources 
to the utmost, and to engage in deficit financing. Only time will tell 
whether progress in these fields keeps pace with the minimum needs of 800 
million people whose hopes and aspirations have been greatly encouraged by 
recent grants of political freedom. 

Middle East 

Sharp reduction of grain crops in Turkey resulted in a total output of 
crops in this area' for 195^-55 somewhat lower than for 1953-5^. Apart from 
the short grain crop, production of crops in the ai-ea for the ciurrent year 
was about as high or higher than a year earlier. The 195^ cotton crop 
amounted to about 2.75 million balps, or 10^ more than in 1953, as acreage 
was increased, especially in Egypt. Fruit, nut, and truck crops were genf^^-al" 
very good, although the Israeli citrus crop now being picked is perhaps 15 
percent smaller than last year. 



33 



Turkey has continued to enco\irage increased agricultural production, 
but extensive drought in 195^ so reduced the grain crops that it is importing 
wheat and feedgrains from the United States. Aside from grains Turkey pro- 
vides no prospects of significance as a market for agricultural products 
and will have substantial quantities of cotton, tobacco, nuts, and dried 
fruits for export. 

Probably more significant to United States agriciilture than exports 
to Turkey is the fact that the decline in the latter 's wheat production, 
from 8.8 million short tons in 1953 to about 6 million tons last year, may 
open markets in third countries to which about 960,000 tons of Turkish 
wheat was exported during the 1953-5^ crop year. Although Turkey will 
continue to be a net exporter of cotton, tobacco, and dried fruits and nuts, 
the problem of earning exchange which was already becoming progressively 
more serious will be accentuated greatly by the absence of grain exports. 

Egypt harvested substantially more cotton, wheat, and rice during 195^ 
than in 1953 • The cotton crop, which \is ually provides about 80 percent of 
the country's foreign exchange, is estimated at 1.6 million bales, and 
the wheat crop is considered the largest in 50 years. This adversely affects 
prospects for the sale of United States farm commodities in Egypt, because 
such sales consist mostly of wheat and flour. Egyptian imports of these 
declined from over $86 million in 1951-52 to only $20 million during the 
1953-5^ crop year. Abandonment of the Egyptian policy of mandatory minimum 
wheat acreage will probably result in lower production next year. It is not 
unlikely, therefore, that Egypt this crop year will import seme wheat, possibly 
the International Wheat Agreement quota, in anticipation of a shift in acreage 
from wheat to cotton. 

Syrian agricultural production in 195^ niay have exceeded that of 1953. 
If so, 195^4- would be Syria's best year in terms of aggregate volume. Grain 
suffered from heavy spring rains and flash floods but total production was 
about the same as in 1953; cotton production rose about 25 percent to perhaps 
275,000 bales, and the output of most other farm commodities increased slightly 
The country is primarily self-sufficient in essential agricultural products 
except sugar, and aside from raw sugar tends to import farm products from 
neighboring countries only. 

Although Lebanon's crop production in 193h reportedly reached a record 
high in terms of aggregate volume, the country will import perhaps a third of 
its agricultural requirements, especially wheat, wheat flour, and cotton, 
Lebanon is experiencing no difficulty in earning foreign exchange to pay for 
imports. Some wheat and flour are imported from the United States but Syria 
is Lebanon's largest supplier of wheat, and Canada has become the second 
largest; consequently, the United States supplied only 3 percent, about 7.5 
million dollars in value of Lebanon's total, agricultural imports during 195^. 



Iran is usually self-sufficient in agricultural products except for 
•-ea and sugar. The Iranian 195^ wheat production of 2*3 million tons is 
reportedly below earlier expectations, hut still ample to meet domestic 
consumption and larger than any postwar crop except for 1953- Nevertheless 
a poor crop in certain areas which normally produce a substantial surplus 
resulted in an embargo on wheat exports. The 195^ cotton and tobacco crops 
were smaller than in 1953- Settlement of the oil dispute is expected to 
result in substantial foreign exchange earnings, but uncommitted exchange 
is expected to be quite limited for perhaps three years. Little is expected 
to be spent on agricultural products. 

The Iraq agricultural economy is also of the self-sufficing type. The 
195^ wheat crop of 900^000 short tons^ is an increase of about 5 percent 
over the 1953 "bumper crop and about 350,000 tons more than the estimated 
annual consmption of perhaps 550,000 tons. The policy in recent years has 
been to add wheat in excess of annual requirements to stocks. Exports of 
dates and barley may be lower in 1955 as the result of somewhat smaller 
harvests . 

Israel ' s food supply position is generally the best since 19^9^ ^U-* 
the country produces only about half its food requirements. Citrus is the 
one farm commodity of which there is a significant quantity available for 
export. Israel's major problem is finding the means to finance development 
which would increase self-sufficiency and ability to earn foreign exchange, 
thereby reducing dependence upon friends abroad. With a 195^-55 food import 
budget of approximately million dollars, wheat will no doubt continue to 
be the largest agricxiltural import. 

Jordan had a very good 195^ wheat crop, which means a good year for 
agriculture since wheat is the primary crop. However, the country continues 
depierident upon foreign assistance even in the best yesirs. 

Increased purchasing power, as a result of oil development, has improved 
the quality and quantity of food purchases by Saudi Arabia and the Sheikhdoms 
of the Persian Gulf, traditionally dependent on imports for from 70 to 100 
percent of their rice, wheat, and flour, barley, sugar, canned vegetables and 
fruits, coffee and tea — supplied mainly by neighboring Arab states, India, 
the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States. 

In spite of rising world prices, the outlook for any appreciable increase 
in Yemen ' s coffee production is not favorable. Cultivation of ghat trees for 
their narcotic -bearing leaves continues to be substituted as a more remuner- 
ative crop. 



35 



South Asia 

The total production of foodgrains in India in 195^-55 is expected to 
"be moderately below the record 1953-5^ harvest which primarily resulted 
from except ionally>.favorable monsoon rains throughout almost q1 1 of the 
subcontinent in 1953- Because of drought followed by floods in north- 
eastern India and delayed rains in the north, the rice harvest is definitely 
smaller this season. Coarse grain production suffered from drought in 
northern and northwestern India, but lower yields in this area have been 
largely offset by higher yields in western India resulting from exceptionally 
favorable rains in that area. Current prospects are for a wheat crop as 
large or larger in the spring of 1955 because of excellent soil moisture 
conditions resulting from heavy rains near the end of the monsoon season. 

Despite India's extraordinary crops in 1953-5^^ which added 7 laillion 
tons of cereal grains to its previous year's output, imports continue. A 
total of 1 million short tons of rice was bought from Burma in 195^^ of 
which around 600,000 tons arrived in India before the end of 195^- Nearly 
750,000 tons of wheat were purchased in the latter half of 195^;» largely 
from Australia, but the bulk is to be delivered in 1955- India's foreign 
trade and payments position has gradually improved over the past two years 
to the point where no difficulty is faced in paying for essential imports 
from dollar as well as nondollar areas. 

The 195^-55 outtiurn of most food crops except wheat is expected to be 
somewhat lower this season. In order fully to meet consumer demand it will 
be necessary to continue the importation of large quantities of sugar. 
Cotton production is expected to be somewhat above the 1953-5^ production 
of k.6 million bales (^4-00 pounds). Although the need for cotton imports 
is gradually declining, the required grades and staple lengths not produced 
ia sufficient quantities in India will continue to be imported from the 
United States, Egypt, and East Africa during 1955- The current jute crop 
may total 3.6 million bales {hOO pounds) compared with 3-1 million last year. 
The 195^ outturn of tea, one of India's principal export crops, was definitely 
above the large 1953 harvest of 607 million pounds, and prices to producers 
were very favorable. The black pepper harvest may be slightly smaller for 
"195^. 

In Pakistan the 1953-5^ foodgrain harvests were among the best on 
record, but because of extensive floods in both East and West Pakistan, the 
prospects for 195^-55 harvests are still uncertain. Floods damaged or des- 
troyed hundreds of thousands of acres of rice, jute, and other crops, but 
increased soil moisture and silt deposits will increase yields in many areas- 
It now appears probaL)le that there will be some reduction in the harvests 
of rice and jute, and an increase in cotton, wheat, pulses, and oilseeds. 

.Pakistan is dependent upon jute, cotton, and a few other agricultural 
c^eimodities for its foreign exchange earnings. Lower world prices for most 
of these commodities which followed the Korean , War bocai have renewed that 
country's foreign exchange, problems . 



Imports for consumption are restricted to tne most ur.^ent necessities. 

-yy^ ii;roor-*:.s of e,g^-ic jl-cura3 co;nmocllties will probably be restricted 
largely to flue-cured tobacco^ cotton of staple lengths not produced in 
Pakistan and limited quantities of certain vegetable oils , However, 
prospective liarvests plus stocks on hand are expected to permit food 
consumption to be maintained near the level of recent years. 

In Ceylon the current food supply is so favorable that there is 
a surplus of rice, the principal food for most people, for export. This 
year's rice harvest is expected to be a record one for the Island and 
some ^70>000 tons will be imported from Communist China and Burma under 
long-term trade agreements with those countries . Ample supplies of im- 
ported flour and sugar and other foodstuffs are readily available. Hie 
present average Ceylonese diet of something in excess of 2,100 calories 
per person per day is sufficient for minimum nutritional requirements, but 
is considered to contain too high a percentage of starches. 

Ceylon must import considerable quantities of other agricioltural com- 
modities; wheat flour, largely imported from Australia, is second only to 
rice, but consumer demand for wheat flour products has declined since the 
rice supply situation improved. Only very limited sales of United States 
flour have been made to Ceylon in recent years, partly because Australia 
enjoys Commonwealth preference in its trade with Ceylon. In recent years 
the United States has been the principal supplier of imported tobacco to 
Ceylon, but a 1953 trade agreement with India providing for concessional 
rates of duty has appiarently increased that country's share of the Ceylon 
tobacco market at least partly at the expense of the American product. 
Largely because of higher prices for certain exports commodities, prin- 
cipally tea, Ceylon's foreign exchange position showed substantial improve- 
ment in 195^' 

The 195^ harvests in Nepal are expected to be below the levels of last 
season. Widespread floods during the past siammer resulted in considerable 
destruction and damage to crops. In consequence the United States Govern- 
ment supplied some food and other aid for the affected population. Normally, 
Nepal's foreign trade in agricultural, as well as other commodities, is 
negligible- Because of poor 1953 crops in Afghanistan the United States 
also supplied some foodgrain aid to that country in 195*+- As far as is known, 
195^ harvests were somewhere near normal. 

Southeast Asia 

Southeast Asia is the world's principal supplier of rice, rubber, 
copra and abaca. Production of these crops in 195^ about the same as 
for 1953 except for abaca, which f^ecl i ned s.l i ghtly. 



37 



In the 3 great rice exporting countries of Southeast Asia --Burma, 
Thailand, and Indochina total 195^-55 production is estimated at 1^ .it- 
million short tons, milled basis, compared with I5.I million last year, 
and 13.8 million tons prewar. Production is expected to drop significantly 
in Indochina in keeping with a smaller planted area. Droiight in Thailand 
resulted in a smaller harvested acreage and a drop in total production. 
With some increase in acreage in Burma , the 195^-55 crop is expected to be 
slightly higher than in the previous year. These 3 countries will have 
about h million short tons of rice for export, about 3.3 million from the 
195^-55 crop, and the balance as carry-over from previous crops. Some of 
this old crop rice has deteriorated to the extent that it can no longer be 
sold for food. Marketing difficulties encountered during the year resulted 
in an unusually large carry-over at the end of 195^' 

Burma and Thailand have up to 1 million tons more of rice to market 
abroad during 1955 than they actiially exported in 195^ • Recently, these 
countries have shown a willingness to accept lower prices in order to step 
up exports. Consequently, United States rice exporters will probably face 
more competition from this area than last year. In both countries, lower 
prices received for rice exports have meant less foreign exchange for imports 
and resultant tightening of import controls. 

The principal rice crop in Malaya will be harvested in April. Assuming 
average weather, production should be about the same as the hQ^,000 tons of 
the year before. Rice imports during 195^-55 are expected to approximate 
500,000 tons or about 20 percent more than the unusually low imports during 
the previoiis 12 months . 

In the Philippines rice production declined to 2.3 million short tons, 
milled basis, compared to the all-time record of 2.5 million tons a year 
earlier. Import requirements during 1955 are expected to be about 100,000 
tons. Because of the larger crop last year, rice was not imported. Pro- 
duction of corn is estimated at 91^^000 tons, about 17 percent above the 
previous year. No imports are contemplated. Production of sweet potatoes 
and cassava was increased somewhat this year. With a lifting of import 
controls and suspension of a 17 percent foreign exchange tax on wheat flour, 
it is expected that the full International Wheat Agreement quota of 260,000 
tons wheat equivalent will be imported. Sugar production is estimated at 
l.h million tons. This will provide adequate domestic sixpplies and permit 
fulfillment of export quotas. Production of copra has recovered from 1953; 
when output was reduced by typhoon damage, and exports are running signigi- 
cantly higher. Abaca production showed a further decline in 195^^ the de- . 
crease being attributed to low prices and disease damage. 

The balance-of -payments position of the Philippines appears to be some- 
what better than a year ago. An increased volume of exports more than made 
up for substantial declines in prices of major export products, while imports 
were maintained at about the same level as in the previous year. The United 
States' share in both exports and imports showed significajit declines in 
about the same proportions during 19^h, while trade with Japan and North- 
western Europe increased. 



3b 



In Indonesia production increases were registered for each of the 
major food crops. The 195^ rice harvest, now expected to be the largest 
on record, is estimated at 8.3 million tons, milled basis. Imports are 
expected to approximate 200,000 tons. Sugar production during 195^ in- 
creased by l6 percent to 79^^000 tons, and ejcports will probably increase 
accordingly. Production of copra is expected to be about the same as a 
year earlier. Coffee production is expected to be less than in 1953' 
Tobacco production is estimated at 1^0 million pounds, a major increase 
over last year, but still significantly below prewar. 

Both exports and imports declined in 195^^ and as a result of import 
controls imposed during the year, a favorable balance of trade may be 
registered for the year. Both export and import trade with the United States 
fell sharply, while trade with Asian countries increased somewliat. Japan 
replaced the United States as Indonesia's leading supplier. 

Northeast Asia 

In Japan production of the h major foodgrains (rice, wheat, common 
barley, and naked barley) was 10 percent above prewar and 15 percent more 
than in 1953- The Government has revised its 195^-55 food supply program 
to provide for increased consumption of -wheat and barley. Grain imports 
in the Japanese fiscal year April 195^ — March 1955 si's expected to be as 
follows: rice 1.1 million tons, wheat 2.5 million, and barley .8 million 
tons. Imports in the previous fiscal year were l.h million, 1.9 million 
and .85 million tons, respectively. Cotton imports are scheduled at about 
2.1 million bales, 16 percent less than the previous year. Production of 
soybeans is estimated to equal last year's crop, and imports are scheduled 
at 670,000 tons, of which the United States is expected to supply over 
500,000 tons. 

Implementation of the Japanese austerity program announced late in 
1953 bas resulted in a softening of prices and a slight reduction in" 
industrial activity. Exports increased sharply in 195^ and imports fell 
off after the heavy inflow of foodstuffs during the first half. The foreign 
exchange situation has improved somewhat; its future will depend on what 
measures will be taken to offset the expected decline in special dollar- 
earnings . 

Production of rice in Taiwan in 195^ is slightly above last year's 
all-time high of 1.8 million tons, milled basis, and a further increase is 
planned in the coming year. About 70,000 tons of milled rice were exported 
in 195^ compared to 65,000 tons in 1953- Some 300,000 tons are reported as 
available for export in 1955- Sugar production in I95U amoimted to 700,000 
tons — about one-third less than in I953 and exports are expected to decline 
accordingly. Food consumption continues at a relatively high level, 2,3^0 
calories per person per day and is exceeded in Asia only by the PhOippines. 



39 



In South Korea in 195^ a rice crop of 2 A million tons was indicated, 
slightly less than a year earlier, while production of other grains was 
somewhat greater than in the preceding year. Plans to export 135^000 tons 
of rice and import additional supplies of cheaper grains in 195^ did not 
materialize. Food plajis for 1955 provide for imports of 60, CXDO tons of 
relief grain, and an additional unspecified amotint of imports of the cheaper 
grains to replace equivalent amounts of Korean rice to be exported. The 
supply of rice from the 1953 and 195^ crops available for export is ex- 
pected to be at least 165,000 tons. 

Following the harvest of a record wheat crop in the early summer of 
195^^ Mainland China suffered the ravages of the heaviest flood in nearly 
a century. Chinese news releases claim that because of flood control works 
undertaken by the present Government and emergency action during the summer, 
less damage occurred than dtiring the great flood of 1931 • It seems likely, 
however, that over-all production of food, and particularly of rice, was less 
than in 1953. 

Distribution of foodstiiffs is controlled by the Government, and, despite 
a growing population, now estimated at 58O million, considerable quantities 
are exported to finance the importation of industrial equipment and raw 
materials. About 300,000 tons of rice were shipped to Ceylon in 195^ and 
35,000 tons to Japan. Japan also imported 120,000 tons of soybeans from 
China. Additional amounts of foodstuffs move in lanknown quantities to the 
Soviet bloc of countries. There are some indications that the government 
plans to maintain the level of exports during 195^-55 despite generally 
smaller supplies from production. 



WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFRICA 



The year 195^ ''^as the second successive one of favorable weather 
conditions in large parts of Africa south of the Sahara. Although the 
important peanut crop of French West Africa and the coffee crop of Angola 
are reported to be dovn as a result of insufficient rainfall, the region 
as a whole should have larger exportable surpluses of oilseeds and vege- 
table oils (other than peanuts), coffee, cocoa, rubber and cotton in 195^- 
55 than in 1953-5^' Several areas in British East Africa and South Africa, 
which normally are about self-sufficient in foodstuffs, have sizable 
quantities of corn and other foods for export during the 195^-55 season. 

Basic food supplies in the Union of South Africa , except in the case 
of wheat and beef, were more than adequate in 195^^ in contrast with short- 
ages in 1953 • Beef was seasonally short. South Africa usually requires 
about 30 million bushels of wheat annually, of which it produced in 195^ only 
about 17 million, slightly less than in 1953. However, it has an export 
surplus of corn of ^3 million bushels, after making adequate provision for 
reserve stocks. This is the resxilt of two favorable seasons, plus a recently 
established hybrid corn program. Fluid milk production is expected to be 
adequate this year to meet domestic demands . Butter and cheese production 
was in excess of requirements for the 1953-5^ season, and approximately 3-9 
and 2.3 million pounds, respectively, were exported. 

South Africa's citrus crop and exports, principally to the United 
Kingdom, were slightly less in 195^ than in 1953- Deciduous fruit exports 
showed a slight increase . Canned fruit exports increased 2k percent for 
the first 9 months of 195^- The kaffircorn crop was adequate in 1953-5^- 

Agricultural production in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland , 
established in October 1953 ^ has increased eightfold in value since 19 3^ ^ 
of which tobacco constitutes about half of the total- A moderate surplus 
of corn W£LS produced for the first time in 195^. There have been two favor- 
able seasons of rapidly increasing production of hybrid corn, gtiaranteed 
prices, and extended use of improved farm management and planning practices, 
including conservation. Official sources predict that supply and demand 
for corn will continue to be delicately balanced over the next few years 
because of increasing demand as a result of population increase and urban 
and industrial development. 

The Federation will continue to be a substantial importer of beef, 
dairy and other animal products, flour, and canned foods. It has been 
officially forecast that the Federation within 6 years will have an annual 



shortage of 123,000 head of cattle for slaughter, even if the presently 
planned expansion is effected. It is self-sufficient in pork, however, 
and recently began to export moderate quantities of high quality carcasses 
to Britain. A significant postwar development has been the steadily in- 
creasing production of peanuts, primarily for home consumption and, to 
some extent, for export. 

Basic food supplies in 195^ in Tanganyika , Kenya , and most other 
eastern areas of Africa, are above those of 1953, when several areas 
experienced shortages due to drought or floods. Kenya will have an esti- 
mated export surplus of corn of 30 million bushels, which will probably 
have to be exported at less than the domestic guaranteed price of $1.53 
per bushel. Tanganyika's corn marketings for 195^ are officially estimated 
at 21 million bushels compared with 9 million bushels in 1953- Beans, 
millet and grain sorghum are adequate for present needs in the region. 
Kenya lias resumed the export of butter to the United Kingdom. Increased 
marketings of cassava in Tanganyika are an indication of increased food 
supplies, since this root crop in many African areas sometimes remains un- 
harvested for as long as two years as a reserve against famine. 

Higher prices for coffee and moderate increases in production in 195^^ 
coupled with ending of British bulk purchase agreements for coffee at lower 
prices, are having a marked effect upon the economy of Tanganyika, Kenya 
and Uganda. The value of Kenya's coffee exports now constitute more than 
one-third of its total exports, replacing sisal as the principal export. 
Coffee is the second most important e3q)ort crop in Uganda, and also the 
second in Tanganyika after sisal. Preliminary indications are that there 
will be a moderate further increase in production of coffee in these countries 
in 19514-55 probably the largest crop on record. 

In Ethiopia 195^-55 harvests are expected to equal or exceed recent 
years, as rainfall has been more favorable than normal throughout much of 
the country. Despite the use of primitive agricultural methods, the ample 
land resources normally make possible the production of sufficient food to 
meet the people's needs, plus a surp^lus for export. The 1951^-55 harvest 
of coffee^ -the country's leading export, ie expected to be the largest on 
record and to total around 750 thousand bags. Due in large part to high 
prices received for coffee e:cports the country has a very favorable trade 
balance. In 1955^ as in the past, agricultiiral imports are expected to 
consist largely of cotton and sugar. 

Food production in the Belgian Congo is virtually enough to meet 
normal requirements, although the diet, as in most other African countries, 
is low in protein foods. The basic foods are cassava and bananas. Food 
imports are confined principally to flour, some livestock products and fish. 



chiefly for the limited European and urban populationo A^;ricultural e:q-:'orts 
consist mainly of paLn oil, palm kernels, cotton and coffee. French 'lest 
Africa , French Equatorial Africa , and An 5:0 la also produce nearl^'' all of the 
food the3r consume* An ola's chief export is coffee, and that of French 
Equatorial Africa is cotton. About four -fifths of the value of e:qDorts from 
French VJest Africa is derived from fats and oils, mostl^^ peanuts and peanut 
oil, and from coffee and cocoa » 

"l-ost of the agricultural export surpluses of the Belgian and French 
territories are taken by their mother covntries. Mor. - than half of Angola's 
coffee exports in 1953, however, went to the United ■'^^.ates. In the same 
year, the United States fiu-nished parctically all of Angola's floiu- imports, 
and the largest part of the Congo's. United States agricultural exports to 
French West and Equatorial Africa are very small. 

The British ijest African countries produce the basic food needs of their 
population, except for those urban and coastal areas with higher li\dng 
standards and increased income from cocoa, coffee, bananas, palm oil and 
kernels, and other tropical export commodities. 

The significantly larger imports since 19^0 by the Gold Coast of floiir, 
canned milk, canned meats, canned and dried fruit, confectionery, margarine 
and butter, are largely the result of increased income from, the rise in cocoa 
prices. In 1953, 26 percent of Gold Coast imports consisted of food, drink 
and tobacco, Nigeria's agricultural imports were muci- less significant per 
capita, partly because of the more diversified agricultural economy, and were 
limited chiefly to grain flour, fish, canned milk and confectionery and bakery 
products. In both countries there wei e .'Jso significcnt increases in imports 
of \anmanuf act Tired tobacco, and in the production of leaf tobacco in Nigeria, 

Cocoa now constitutes two-thirds of total e::ports of the Gold Coast, and 
more than one-tliird the value of total exports oL ?i;eria6 United States 
agricultural exports to these two countries are almost entirely limited to 
tobacco and flour. 

In Liberia the production of rice, the staple food' of the countr-r, has 
increased steadily from 2 million bag's in 1951 to over U,5 million bags in 
195U; imports in the corresponding period to supplement the diet dropped from 
Oc7 million to 0.1 million bags. The local consumpti^^n of rice has increased. 
Production of cassava, a hi^h starch food crop, grown for local consumption, 
increased slightly to 135,000 tons in 195U* Palm kernel production reached 
a new hi^li in 195^4, when some 18,000 tons were exj^Dorted, and is expected to 
increase considerably diu^ing the next 5 years, 

Liberia maintains a favorable balance of trade, rubber, the covmtr^'-'s 
chief export, reached an all-time high 195U of over 73 million pounds, most 
of which went to the United States, 



OCEAIIIA •• v^' 

Both Australia and New Zealand are making important adjustments in their 
agricultural production and marketing programs » 

Production : Australia ^ s agricultural output is expected to be about the 
same in 195 3 -5U as in 1952-55, with the exception of wheat. Because of droup^ht 
in New South Wales and Western Australia' the latest government estimate for 
wheat production is about 20 percent below last year's crop of 199 million 
bushels. Recent information indicates that carry-over stocks on December 1, 
195U may be about 92 million bushels compared with 38 million bushels on 
December 1, 1953. The wheat farmers have agreed overwhelmingljr to a new wheat 
price guarantee plan based on cost of production. The estimate for the 195U 
barley crop is" 29 million U, S. bushels. For oats the crop is estimated at 
35 million U.S. bushels. 

The countrywide yields of apples, raisins and primes are expected to be 
average for the next crop, apricots slightly below, and pears and peaches 
above average. 

The production of whole milk, butter and cheese are all significantly 
above last year's level. Wool production in 195U was I3OO million pounds, 
slightly above the previous year. Butter is still the key dairy product, for 
Australia, using nearly two-thirds of total milk production, and the United 
Kingdom is the chief export market. 

The effect of the drought upon meat output in Australia is considered to 
be relatively minor. The effect in Nexir South Wales upon cattle is being 
avoided by moving stock to other pastures and by supplementary feeding. Sheep 
and lamb numbers have recovered from the disastrous drought years of l^h^-hlo 
The effect of drought upon meat output has been decreased by the increased 
acreage of improved pastures, higher carr3n.ng capacity, increased use of 
superphosphate and trace elements, and other improved farming practices, 
particularl3/- in Queensland and other eastern and southern parts of Australia, 

Trade Outlook ; Although the United Kingdom cancelled its b\ilk purchase 
meat agreement with Australia in 19^h) a minimum price agreement has been 
substituted which runs until September 30, 1967* This agreement provides that 
the United Kingdom will make a deficiency payment if the average price realized 
for Australian beef, mutton and lamb in Britain falls short of an agreed 
minimm percentage of the average price for the 195U-55 season. , . 

Australia has joined with Denmark and New Zealand in establishing a 
Butter Council in London to endeavor to increase the British consumption of 
butter in competition with the new brands and grades of margarine. The dairy . 
industry in Australia has been faced with high costs of production and 
decreased per capita domestic consumption. A loss of about 11 cents per pound 
has been inciirred on butter exports to the United Kingdom, which has been 
subsidized by the Australian Government. Australia has a new agreement with 
the British ilinistry of Food for dried fruit, which provides that the Ministry 



will pay the Australian Government for an^ deficiency between the realized 
price in Britain and the agreed support level, less certain shipping and 
handling charges. 

The demand and price for wool continued stron. through June IS^hi but 
the September auctions opened with prices 10-15 percent lower and fluctuated 
downward through mid-November, Since that time there has been a tendency "or 
prices to become firm. 

Production ; New Zealand's production, while tending slightly upwarc \n 
195U is beginning to show indications of reaching a temporary ceilinp, eat 
production in the 19$h-SS season is expected to show only a moderate increase . 
;ieat production in 1953-5U totaled 1,330 million pounds, compared Xijith the 
record total of 1,350 million in 1951-52. Beef production in the 1953 -5i| 
season increased to UlO million pounds from 360 million in 1952-53, with a 
corresponding increase in beef available for e:q)ort. Greater emphasis is 
being placed on chilled beef, particularly with the purpose of supplying hi-'h 
quality beef to the United Kingdom market throughout the year. Establishment 
of a price support scheme for New Zealand meat has been postponed. 

Butter production in 195U probably will be close to the kh^ million pounds 
produced in 19$3-6hf cheese production will probably be less than 2i4.0 million 
pounds compared with 2k6 million in 1953-5U. 

New Zealand's apple production in 19Sh-$S is estimated at 2,936,000 
'jushels which is sli^tly higher than the last 6~year average. Exports to the 
United Kingdom for the first 9 months of 195^^ were 380,000 bushels con^Dared 
with 360,000 for the same period of 1953. 

New Zealand is normally dependent on large imports of wheat, chiefly frorr^ 
rt-ustralia. Production in 195U-55 probably will be less than half the total 
annual requirements of 12 million bushels. There is a domestic guaranteed 
price to New Zealand growers of ''.'1.52 per bushel. 

Trade Outlook ; VJhile Denmark and Australia renewed their bulk dairy con- 
tract s~lHth~theTHited Kingdom at somewhat lower prices. New Zealand decided 
in .July 195^4 to cancel its contract. However, in September the New Zealand 
Oairy Products Commission announced for the 195^^-55 season reductions in the 
guaranteed prices to producers of butter and cheese to assist the industry 
in a transition to lower export prices and to place New Zealand in a better 
competitive position. This is the first reduction since the guarantee was 
announced 18 years ago. 

The future of New Zealand's butter production depends greatly upon its 
ability to deliver and sell in the United Kingdom -market in pri-'^ate channels 
in competition with Danish and Australian butter, as well a? in competition 
nth cheaper margarine. 



SITUATION BY GO: ilODITIES 



GRAINS 



Production ; '/Jorld grain production in 19^k~$^y although somewhat beloxir the 
preceding j'-ear's large outturn, remains on a hirh level, 'Jheat and corn 
production each were below the past two seasons but above both the prewar 
and postwar average, Tne est mates indicate a record barley crop, a rice 
crop 2 percent below the record of 1953-5^, and oats and rye crops larger 
than in 1953-5U. 

The reduction in the world wheat crop is primarily the result of smaller 
crops in the United States and Canada, Production in Europe is near the 
19^3-5^1 high level but the quality is poorer. The decrease in the world corn 
crop reflects a smAller United States crop. Conversely the 
record world barley crop this year may be largely attributed to a sharp 
increase in United States production. The rice crop is slightly below 1953- 
Sh in both the surplus -producing and major importing countries. 

Carry-in stocks of breadgrains into the 19^k-S^ season were larger than 
a year earlier. The beginning stocks in the k principal exporting countries 
were larger by about 16,5 million short tons. That substantial gain more 
than offset estimated declines in stocks in importing countries. Rice stocks 
also were larger than a year earlier. Coarse grains in the exporting coun- 
tries appear to have been about U,5 million short tons more than a year 
earlier. 

Supplies of bread and coarse grains in the exporting countries are ample 
to meet import requirements in deficit areas. Total import requirements of 
bread grains are e:q)ected to be somewhat larger than in 1953-5i-t and the 
requirements for coarse grains may be about the same, or slightly larger 
than a year ago. The export availabilities of rice continue at high levels; 
however, there is still an active demand for good-quality rice. 

Price Movements : Prices for grain which moved in international trade generally 
declined during the past season (July 1953-June 195U)» The maximum IWA price 
for wheat is .,>2,05 per bushel, and the minimum 01.55 per bushel, V/heat sales 
under the agreement are now near or below the mid-point of this range. Export 
rice prices changed little during the first half of 1953-5U but declined 
during the latter part; Burmese quotations declined from about $7.50 per 100 
pounds at the beginning of the season to 16.25 at the end. Prices of com and 
other feedgrains also declined somewhat, with Argentine corn being quoted c.i.f . 
Liverpool on February 1, 195U at the equivalent of :!^.98 per bushel and at 
s^l.75 or slightly lower toward the end of 1953-5U. Domestic prices in importing 
countries are generally determined by domestic price support measures and are 
not necessarily related to import prices. 



Br eadgjfalns t World wheat and rye production in 19514-55 is estirnated at 2h6 
million short tons, compared with the previous season's crop of 2^9 million 
short tons, and the postwar (l9li5-^9) average of 218 million* Rye usually 
accounts for less than one -fourth of the total breadgrain production but 
is important in the food supply of many areas, particularly Northern and 
Eastern Europe, 

Wheat ; The 195U-55 world wheat crop, estimated at 6,790 million bushels, is 
6 percent below 1953-5U, but is 13 and 16 percent, respectively, above the 
prewar and postwar average. Production in most major exporting countries is 
below 1953. Export availabilities in such countries, however, are at high 
levels because of large carry-overso Large crops a^^ain were harvested in 
most major importing areas but the quality of the crop, particularly in 
Europe, was poorer than usual, thus tending to increase import requirements. 
Also, stocks in some of the most important importing countries were relatively 
low at the beginning of the 195U-55 season. 

In Morth America , the largest siirplus producing area, the crop is down 
29 percent from 1953 o The United States and Canadian crops are 210 and 315 
million bushels, respectively, below 1953 • The Canadian crop is also of very 
poor quality, much of it destined to go into feed channels. The 195U-55 supply 
in the United States is the largest of record despite reduced production. The 
forecast for the 195U-55 South American crop of 360 million bushels is somewhat 
above the previous year but below the large 1952-53 crop« The Argentine crop 
is forecast at 260 million bushels, which would be ih percent above production 
last year. 

Production in Europe is estimated at 1,730 million bushels, about the 
same as last year. Adverse weather in Europe appears to liave affected the 
quality of the crop to a greater extent than the quantity, France reports 
a record crop of 386 million bushels and Spain's outturn of l80 million 
bushels is the largest since the Spanish Civil I'Jar, Conversely, the crops 
in VJestern Germany and especially Italy are below 1953 largely because har- 
vesting losses were heavyo Production in the Danube Basin is smaller than 
in 1953, mainly because of \mfavorable fall weather which interfered with 
seeding, a very late spring and drought in Yugoslavia during the 195U 
growing season. The Australian crop is expected to be somewhat below 1953-5U. 

Wheat Supplies Available for Export : The quantity of wheat available for 
export from the k principal surplus -producing countries (United States, 
Canada, Argentina, and Australia) are substantially larger in 195h-55 than 
the 68U million bushels exported by these countries in 1953-5Uo The record 
United States supply of 1,862 million bushels consists of a crop of 959 
million bushels and record carry-in stocks of 903 million bushels, Canadian 
supplies of 886 million bushels, although below the very high level of a 
year ago, are still more than ample to meet any foreseeable demand from 
importing areas, Australia had a large carry-over from the preceding season 
and Argentina's crop, together with the carry-over, provides adequate supplies 
to meet the probable export requirementso For the h major exporting countries 
combined, estimated supplies available for export during October, 195U-June, 
1955 and for carry-over into the next season totaled about 2 billion bushel?, 
about 1 percent greater than a year earlier, (See Table A) 



Import Requirements ; Total import requirements for wheat in 19^U-55 are 
expected to be somewhat above the previous season, largely because of the 
poor quality of the crop in .^e stern Europe, the world's major importing 
area, Asia, the second most important outlet for the world's wheat exports, 
reports another large crop. Turkey was a rather important exporter in 
1953-5U but will be on an import basis in 195U-55* France again has a sur- 
plus available for export but the supply includes a considerable quantity 
of low quality grain. 

Present indications point to an increase of at least 5 percent in the 
total exports of wheat in 195U-55^ thus arresting the downxfard trend in 
world exports since the record 1,066 million bvishel export in 19^1-52. 
United States exports may reach about 2^0 million bushels compared with 2l6 
Tiillion in 1953-514- and Canadian exports will probably remain near last 
season's level of 288 million bushels, 

Argentine's 195U-55 (July-June) exports mil probably reach at least 
100 million bushels. The 195h-55 crop of 260 million bushels^ would be 
s\ifficient to provide exports of this magnitude, taking into account the 
shipments made since July 19Sh from old crop wheats Australia's exports 
probably will be somewhat higher than the 71 million exported diiring 1953- 
$h (July-June), despite a smaller crop, as very large supplies of old-crop 
wheat are available for eiqport, (See Table B) 

Rye : The world's production of rye in 195U-55 is estimated at 1,520 million 
bushels compared with 1,U90 million in the previous year. The crop is about 
the same as the postwar average but is well below the prewar average. About 
95 percent of the crop is normally produced in the Soviet Union and Europe* 
European rye production, though widespread, shows greatest concentration in 
Central Europe, with Poland, Germany, and Czechoslovakia normally producing 
about 70 percent of the continental total. Virtually, all of the remainder 
is produced in Canada, the United States, Turkey, and Argentina, Rye is 
relatively unimportant in international trade, (See Table C) 

Coarse Grains : The bulk of the world's production of com, oats and barley, 
is used for feeding livestock. World production of coarse grains during 
195It-55 is estimated at 290 million short tons compared with the all-time 
record of 293 million in 1953-5U and the prewar average of 260 million tons* 

Corn is the most important coarse grain moving into export channels. 
The 195U-55 world production of 5.5 billion bushels, is about 230 million 
bushels below the previous crop, but 15 and h percent, respectively, above 
the prewar and postwar averages. The record production of about 6 billion 
bushels was produced in 19^8* United States production in 195ii-55 was 238 
million bushels below 1953-5U, thus accounting for virtually all of the 
decline in the vjorld crop. 

Total United States supplies of corn in 195U-55 of about 3,880 million 
bushels are approximately SOmillioii less than in 1953-5U but 3C0 r^illion c 
the 19U7-51 average. The aggregate supplies of all coarse grains in the 
United States is at a near-record level, Argentina -harvested <'v corn crop- of 



about 189 million bushels in the early months of 19Sh ~ the largest since 
19'47-U8, It is too early for any reliable indication of the size of the crop 
to be harvested in early 1955^ (See Table D ) 

International Trade in Feed G rains; Exports of feedgrains in 195U-5^ should 
be at least as large as in 1933"-^. The aggregate production of feedgrains 
in Viestern Europe, the world's largest importing area, is about 7 percent 
below 1953j which should increase the import requirements in that area. On 
the other hand, the requirements for barley in Asia, notably Japan and Korea, 
may not be as large as in 1953-5U« Export availabilities of feedgrains in 
surplus producing coujitries are fiilly adequate to meet import requirements, 
despite reduced availabilities of barley for export from Turkey, Iraq, and 
several other normally exporting countries. United States exports of barley 
(and sorghum grains) are expected to be well above the levels in 19^3-5U and 
corn exports should at least approximate ' the 100 million bushel level of 19^3- 
5U. Argentina's exports of corn in 195^-55 (July-June) should considerably 
exceed the ^2 million bushels in 1953~5U in view of the large exports since 
June 19Sh and the expected availabilities from the crop to be harvested in 
early 195^ c 

Rice; World 195U-55 rice production in the area outside Commvinist China, 
North Korea and the Soviet Union is forecast at 87o9 million short tons, in 
terms of milled rice, compared with 90 million tons in 1953-5Uj and the 
above-average production of 85 .3 million tons 2 years earlier. Such infor- 
mation as is available indicated that the Chinese crop was short because of 
floods in the 195U seasono 

The indicated decrease from 1953 -5U in the non-Communist area is almost 
entirely in the rice crops of Asia, as record harvests are in prospect in all 
other world areas, with the possible exception of Oceania, 

Production in the rice-surplus countries is expected to be slightly less 
than in 1953-5U» Declines in the harvests of Asia's exporting countries are 
partially offset by gains in the Western Hemisphere and Middle East, Rice 
production in the surplus areas of the I:iddle East - Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and 
Turkey, -- is considerably larger than in 1953 o (See Table E) 

Trade Outlook for Rice: The 195U world trade in rice exceeded that of 1953 
by at least 10 percent, even though exports xfere substantially less than 
total supplies available for export „ The volume shipped was the second 
largest since World War II, and considerably greater than anticipated earlier 
in the year. Relatively high prices and below average quality for much of 
the damaged rice offered for export were important factors in the withholding 
of purchases by some importing countries. On the other hand, long-term con- 
tracts in several exporting countries resulted in the exportation of larger 
volme s . 

, World exportable supplies of good-quality rice in 1955 show a moderate 
increase over the amount available at the beginning of 195U. The inability 
to export all 1953-5U surpluses at existing price levels resulted in large 
stocks, in addition to the new 195U-55 crop. Thus, e::portable supplies for 
shipment in 1955 will be larger than e>:ports in the preceding year. 



Availability oi better-quality rice in Burma is about the same as a year 
earlier. In Thailand^ the amount may be less than in 195U» Vietnam's rice 
harvest may result in average postwar . exports of around 200,000 tonsc Egypt, 
Iran and Iraq will have substantially large amoimts for exporto 

Part of the increase in export supplies in countries outside Asia is in 
carry-over stocks from the 1953-5U crops, since production of that season was 
not exported to the extent anticipated. The greatest increase in exportable 
supplies is in the bnited States, which had the largest carry-over in years 
and also a record crop o Brazil may have a larger crop than last year when 
yield per acre was low, 

- Exportable supplies from Europe may be slightly less than in 1953 though 
export supplies are estimated to be a record. The surplus in Egypt in 1955 
will increase sharply compared with the 3 preceding years, in line with the 
very large crop outturn, (See Table F) 



(TABLE A) _ . . 

UHEAT AND FLOUR: Exports by major exporting' countries. Averages 193U-38 
and; 19U5-U9y annual 1950-51 to 1953-5Uj jear beginning July lo 



Countries ] 


193l;-38 ! 
! average ; 


average • 


1950-51 ! 


'1951-52*1952-53 


! 1953-5U 


United States* o 

Australia, o . » . . ' 
Argentina, . „ . . , 

TcbO-la 0 • c 0 0 0 c 


Mllion : 
bushels ! 


Million 
bushels 


Million : 
bushels : 


Million- 
bushels 


.Million 
: bushels' 


. Million 
• bushels 


Il5 : 
: 175 ' 

106 

122 
: 101 


Ul6 
252 

83 

76 

61 • 


: 365 
221 
127 

: 103 
121 


U75 
3h7 
99 
30 

. 115 


: 317 
: 392 
: 99 
: 29 

: 15C 


: 216 
: 288 
: 71 
: 109 
■1/ 150 


= Sk9 


: 888 


: . 937 s 1;,066 


. 987 83U 



1/ Preliminaryc 



(TABLE B) ■ \l 

WHEAT AND FLOUR: World exports averages 193ii-38 and 19U5-i^9, 
annual 1950-51 to 1953-5U to specified geographic areas. 



Destination of World Exports 



Year 
Beginning 
July 1, 


: Europe 


'North Central 
, and South 
America 


: Asia 3/ ; Africa 


Tota] 


193ii-38 average 


'.% of : Quantity. 


.% of : Quantity 


% of : Quantity:^ of : Quantity 


Quan- 
tity 

■~5II9 


: total: 

: 73 : kOO 


: total : 


'lotal: : total: 
10 : 5U : 2 : 11 



Continued 



Continued o.. 
19ii5~^9 average 

1950- 51 , 

1951- 52 

1952- 53 

1953 »5Ii 2/ 

Include 



:> • t 9 « 



61 : 




-O 


55 : 


511 




50 : 


531 


16 


5U : 


531 


: 16 


50 s 


lil3 


: 15 



nil 
1U5 
171 
-3-51 
^28 



: 21 : 


190 




U8 ! 


888 


: 2U : 




: 6 : 


59 ! 


937 


: 27 : 


290 


: 7 : 


7h • 


! 1,066 


2U : 


2h0 


6 J 


62 


987 


% 29 : 


2h5 


: 6 : 


ii8 


! 83ii 



sn. prnonts to Oceania ^ 



r-eliminary 



(TABLIi "C) 

Br:EAL>Ca:BJS: World production, average and V^'^jS-hS , 

annual 1952-53 to 195h-55, by Continent or area. 



V J heat 

North America 
Europe 
USSR 
Asia 



« 4 o • • o o 



Africa 

South America 
Oceania 



• • • • 

O 9 « » 

«• « • « 

• • • 9 

• 004 



Estimated world total a 



Rye 

North America 
Europe 
USSR „ 
Asia 



O • C B • e D 



S • « * 9 0 » 

■'^-^ Ca ou«»»»»o»oo«e<,« ••OS 

South America 

Oceania o .» c » 



Estimated world total 



Total Wheat and Rye 



North America 
Europe , . = 
USSR ..... 
Asia e • o . • 
Africa o.. 
South America 
Oceania ,„.,,. 



Estimated world total 



: Average 
: 1935-39 


: Average 
: 19li5-U9 


: 1952-53 


: 1953-5^ 




• r'Ullion 
■ bushels 


•• Million 
' bushels 


: Million 
: bushels 


: Million 
: bushels 


: 'lillion 
: bushels 


J., uoo 

1,600 
I52UO 
1»U98 
1U3 
28x 
177 


l,i30l? 

= 1,265 
: 885 
= 1,525 
: 13h 
2&J 

: 183 


: l,6l40 

: 1,605 
: 173 
' 370 

: 20I1 


• ±, ouo 
: 1,725 

: 1,725 
: 193 
: 330 
: 20I4 


■ 1,730 
: 1,735 

: 205 
: 360 
: 170 


"■^7025 


5TBu0 


: 7,l4CO 


= 7,255 


• ^790 


51 
766 
885 

15 
1 • 

11 ■ 


35 
565 
895 

15 
1 

16 

2/ 


I4I ■ 

675 

: 28 

5I4 : 


hi 

635 
30 

1 

25 : 

2/ 


37 

685 

17 
33 


1,732 ; 


1,530 




1,190 ; 


1,520 


1,000 : 
shrt tons : 


1,000 
sh„ tons 


: 1,000 : 
Jsha tons : 


1,000 : 
sh. tons : 


1,000 
she tons 


314,092 : 
69,Ua8 : 
61,980 : 
U5,360 : 
2,888 : 
8,738 : 
5,310 ; 


148,530 
53,770 
51,610 
146,170 
14,0148 
8,338 
5,1490 


: 61,298 : 
: 68,100 : 
: 66,500 : 
J 148,9314 s 
: 5,218 : 
: 12,612 : 
6,120 : 


55,556 \ 
69,530 : 

59,250 : 

5,818 : 
10,600 : 
6.120 : 


39,706 
71,080 
60,000 
52,526 

6,178 1 
11,721; 1 

5,100 


229,2146 : 2l8;0i40 : 


268,900 : 


259,370 : 


2l;6,liOO 



2/ Preliminary estimates, 2/ Less than 500,000 bushels produced. 



(TABLE D) 



COARSECmiNS: ./orld production, average 1935-39 said 19kS-h9s> 
annual 1952-53 to 195^-55 by Continent, 



Continent 








• A '\7iP y*;^ CTf^ 








or 














• -'-7P'4~PP 


Area 






















• M-i T -1 rvrt 


• M-i 1 1 -1 nn 


• Vn T 1 T rin 




0 i ij LJ LUll 








*m Vine; Viol Q 


• UU.011CXO 


• Vm 1 q 1 c 




• U Uo iltrXo 


Barley 
















North America o . . 


» • • 0 « 0 


• 


: 332 


S^; i42U-' 


i 525 


511 


551 


Europe o. . 


e • A c c n 




: 666 


: 600 


: 805 


: 830 


: 805 




0 • 9 0 9 0 
















0 V • o • • 




' ( \J\J 




7R7 
1 0 1 


• (JZ4P 


8?fi 


Africa 


«•»••• 




\ T ?1 


: 107 

AXJ [ 






J-PU 


South AmPTTfA 


* • a « « « 


• 


:' "^fi 
' ^0 




fin 


op 


op 


Oceania •&ouo«oe»o 


• ••••• 


• 


= 13 


' 19 


: 39 


: hi 


: 38 


Estimated world 


4-^4- 

bOuai 






^^170 








Oats 
















North America ^ « ^ » 


• •«••{) 


• 


■ 1^3814 : 


. 1,720 


1,730 • 


1,627 : 


I9823 


Europe . o o . 


« 0 » » » 0 


e 


1,608 ■ 


1,293 : 


l,li02. ; 


1M3 • 


1,355 


USSR 






1,16^ : 


720 - : 














96 : 




111. , : 


113 : 


105 








23 ' 


20 : 


2h ■ 


-J— ' 

22 : 


23 


South America « , , » 






62 • 


57 ■ 


98 : 


77 . 


76 








27 : 


37 : 


58 : 


ll5 : 


38 


Estimated world 


tot al 


(5 " 


U,365 . : 


: 3.930 : 








\J\J± LIl 
















North America .0 • . « 


» • 0 0 • 


B ' 


2,U35 ' 


3,217. : 


3,i|83 : 


3,383 : 


3,16U 


Europe «c«*e*««««« 


9 0 0 • • 0 


• * 


695 : 


560 : 


U80 : 


650 : 


605 


US SR. : 0 9*0 99m ••-••.OriJ 


0 0 « • « 0 




170 s 


113 : 


- — ■ : 




— 


•A5I3. •co«*«**aer*e 




620 ; 


, 665 • 


725 : 


725-: 


720 


Ax ri C3. e9«*30»coeo 


0 * • x> • • 


* ' 


2^^ 'i 




^^0 '■ : 




pp^ 


South America 0 *. . « 


6 • c e • 0 


0 * 






'-1-PP 






Oceania oaeo**o*co 


• • 0 « • 0 


■> * 


fl : 
\j ' 


7 : 




P 


p 


Estimated world total 










^ 7^0 


^ Ii9n 








i,oco ! 


1,000 ! 


1,000 


1,000 


1,000 








sha tons [ 


sh, tons 


she tons 


sho tons 


sh, tons 


Total Barley, Oats & 


Corn 














North America o o, ^ 


9 0 0 • • e 


9 


98^292 : 


127,772 : 


137,80ii : 


133,020 : 


130, 98U 


EUt ope ««09&00 


£ * • P • • 


0 * 


61A72 : 


50,768 : 


55,192 : 


61,208 : 


57,9i;0 


USSR C9«*04*9aoc*0 


« • 0 C • • 


0 * 


33^600 : 


21,212 : 


27,360 : 


23,580 : 


26,980 








37,328 : 


36,572 : 


140,96a : 


h2,3lt0 : 


ill, 712 






0 * 


10,i|12 : 


10,308 : 


12, 9hi| : 


13,872 : 


13^208 


South America , , , , 


t • » « 0 9 


• • 


18,00U ' 


lii,78l; : 


16; 228 : 


17,07^? : 


17,616 


Oceania 909oo«no»* 






968 5 


l,2l|[i : 


2^00li : 


l,8l4li : 


1,660 


Estimated world 


total 


0 • 


259^880 : 


262,800 : 


292,560 : 


293,OiiO : 


290^,200 



1/ Preliminary 



52 



(TABLE E) 

RICE (in terms of milled) l/: Production by principal world areas 2/, 
averages 1935-36 to 1939-I;0 and 19kS-h6 to k9-^0, annual 1951-52 to 195U-55 



Area 



Average 
1935-36 

to 
1939-UO 



Average 
19ii5-ii6 

to 
19U9-50 



1951-52 



1952-53 



1953 -5U 3/ 



l95Ii-55 3/ 



ASIA : 

Rice Bowl: 
Burma 

Thailand 

Indochina, .... 

Total 

Other comtrie 

Total 

WESTERN HEHISPHER 



United States. 
Other comtries 
Total.,.. 

EUROPE 

AFRICA 

OCEANIA 

VJorld total 



5,778 
3,212 
U,823 



13,813 
56,U59 
70,272 



752 
1,530 
2,282 



"B02" 
1,687 

ai 



l^OCO short tons 



3,869 
ii,013 
3,987 
11,869 
55,39li 



67,263 



1,189 
3,131 
U,320 



2,68U 
71 



75,08U ; 75T07r 



U,577 
5,U0 
U,288 



h,878 
U,876 

U,389 

1U,275 •• lU,lii3 
56,U8[t : 61,931 



70,759 



1,53U 
3,513 
5, 0147 



1,099 
2,730 
7U 



79,709 



76^07U 



1,612 
3,598 



5,210 
l,2Ug" 
2,683 

^ 90 

85,30 5 



li,577 
6,060 
U,U89 
15,126 
65,061 
80,187 



1,760 
3,789 



1,283 
2,932 

9h 

9 0,0li5 



U,656 

5,695 
li,020 
1U,371 
63,029 
77,UOO 



2,069 
ii,037 
6,106 



1,311 
2,976 

86 

87,879 



l/ Converted from rough rice at 67 percent, 2/ Excluding Commianist China, 
North Korea, and the Soviet Union, 3/ Preliminary, 



.^3 



1 (in terns of milled): Exports from principal world a: 
average 1936-14.0 and I9I46-50, annual 1952-53, estimated 
19^kj and e:cport supplies, 1955 



Area : Average : 1^2 ; 1953 t 195Ii l/ • 1955 2/ 

I 1936-UO ; 19116':::^'"; I : J. 

1_,000 short tons 

ASIA: : ': '{~- i T : 

Rice Bowl: : : : : : : 

Burma ,.: 3,268 : 1,07U : l,l462: 1,090: 1,650 :3/ 2,300 

Thailand : 1,14.60 : 960 : l,57l;- 1,^73= l,iiOO : 1,500 

Indochina,. : l^-6l6 : 12l| : 2U S: 213: 300 : 200 

Total.., ' T:3hk ■ ' 2,l5F~: 3,28l: TJW- 37^0 : UTW 

Other countries c :_1^^936_J 95 - 1^25 : 561|; 700 : 1,200 

Total • a^2b0 : 27 2^3^ 3T709: IJIHol 3, 850 • "TT^OO 

WESTERIJ in ISP HERE - i I ' 1 ] [ 

United States..,' 118 : l|8l : ' 902: 875= 700 : 1,250 

Brazil : l2 ■ I6I : 189 : 3: 20 : 230 

Other countries «■ h i ' 15'1 ■ Ihl- 185: 210 : 230^ 

Total.... r-' 207 • 793 • 1,232: 1,063 •■ 930 : 1,710 

EUROPE ; : : 1 — ~" 1 1 ] 

Italy ..: 168 : 91 : 30 Ij.: 268: 2I4O : 350 

Other countries.: 6j 10 : 98: 96: 80 : 130_ 

Total, : iTin 101~^ IW'' WT- 320 I JTSO 

AFRICA: : T" ] j 1 i 

Sgypt 138 : 27U : I8: 1: 20 : 320 

Other countries.: 17 : l5 : ^k- 5Uj 80 : 80_ 

Total . 155 r 2o9~^ 72: 5 51 100 : UOO 

AUSTRALIA : ........ : ITT" 31 : 27: 3 3: 30 : 20 

. World total. : 8_,831 :_ 3^U67 : i.UUi: '5",U30 : 7,800 

1/ Frelirainary estimate r, "Z/' Export supplies = J/ .:i.xcludes 306,000 of rice 

undar contract with India in 195U for shipment xn 1955. 



SUGAR 



The world production and consumption of sugar lias more th:m hept 
paOf: with increasing population and stocks are accumulatiug in spite 
of drastic restriction in production in Cuba. 

Production: World production of centrifugal cane and beet sugar for 
195^-55 is forecast at 39. 1 million short tons, raw value, 1.1 million 
tons below the '1O.2 million tons produced in 1953-5^. An outtujrn of this 
size will be the second largest on record and will exceed the prewar 
(1935-39) average of 28.5 million tons 'by 37 percent. World production 
of non- centrifugal sugar is ejq^ected to increase to almost 6.5 million 
Ghort tons during 195^-55, compared with 6.3 million tons during 1953-5^- 
This forecast is 21 percent above the prewar ( 1935-39) average of 
million tons. 

The forecast of cane sugar production for 195-^-55 is equal to the 
record 2h.O million tons produced in I95I-52. Beet sugar production is 
expected to be 8 percent less than the record l6.i+ million tons of 1953- 
^k. The decrease occurred in Europe as a result of adverse weather condition. 

Cons uiapt ion : Imports of the postwar period indicate that world sugar con- 
suidpt ion will be between 37 and 38 million tons. About 3 million tons of 
sugar were added to carry-over stocks during 1953-5^ and an additional 1 
million tons or more will be added during the 195^-55 season. This antici- 
pated increase of inventories should occur in the exporting countries '^f the 
world as importing nations continue to work off stocks accumulated prior to' 
the calendar year 195^^ primarily through special purchsises. 

The United States is again assured of more than adequate supplies of 
sugar for the consumption year 1955- Every major source of supply, domeptic 
or foreign, is in a position to fulfill its quota for the United States 
during the year. While it is expected that Cuba will restri«'t production 
in 1955 by 39^,000 tons or more, beginning carry-overs for the year in- 
creased by a like amount and availabilities for the coming year should 
approximate those of 195^- 

Inventories of sugar remain high in the United Kingdom and British 
Commonwealth as the exporting areas continue to expand production. Pro- 
duction within the French Union remains close to consumption levels while 
France endeavors to reduce excess inventories of sugar accumulated during 
1953-5^. In the Federal Republic of Germany sugar supplies now exceed 
domestic requirements and this former major importing area is reduced to j 
the necessity of reexporting sugar previously imported from Cuba. I 

Some relief to world siurpluses has been pi-ovided by India, which I 
\inexpectedly imported 850,000 tons of sugar during 195^' I 



55 



Outlook: World sugar surpluses in 1953-5^ Increased by about 3 million 
t^Hi7~ind the revitalized Internat.ional R.^gar Council was put to tne 
test in the stabilization of world free market prices wnich had declined 
e:i-.e«riily fx-^i the postwar peak of 8.05 cents in June 1951 to a postwar 
low of 3.05 cents in November 1953- Vigorous action by the Council during 
the first half of 195^ in lowering to a minim-um- the export quotas for the 
world free market, and voluntary withholding action by Cuba combined to 
stabilize world prices at or about 3-25 cents per pound from September 24, 
195lf until December. This price for sugar represents the minimum of the 
price range specified under the Agreement (3-25 - ^.35 cents per pound, 
fas, Cuban port). However, concurrent with upward revisions m the 
beet sigar production estimates for Europe, and the supply problems in- 
volved under the International Sugar Agreement, the world market price 
broke in mid-December 195^ and reached a level 10 cents or more under the 
3.25 minimum world price. 



Centrixu--al Sugar (ra^^ value): Froduction in specified 
areas, 'averages 1935-39 and 19lj5-Ii9, annual 1951-52 

to I95I4-55 1/ 2/ 



Area 



United States and 

Territories 

Cuba 

Philippines, Republic of 
United Kingdom and 

British Commonwealth , 

French Union 

Other North /jnerica .... 
Other ^festern Europe ... 
Eastern Eurooe including 

U«S«S#R9 ••••••••»•»•» 

Other Asia , ^ f 
Other South America ,,,, 
Other /frica , 



Total Production 



Averages : 


1951-52; 


1952-53; 


i953-5a : 


I95a-55l/ 


1213rii_J 


19a3-Ii9: 


1,000 : 
short : 
tons ; 


1,000 : 
short : 
tons ; 


1,000 . ; 
short : 
tons • 


1,000 ! 
short : 
tons : 


1,000 : 
short : 
tons : 


1,000 

short 
tons ■ 


3,951 i 
3,183 : 
1,058 : 


3,970 i 
5,897 : 
382 ; 


1j,360: 
7,96l4: 
1,076: 


U,392: 
a/5,687: 
l,13li: 


14/5,390: 
l,ai6! 


a, 889 

[./5,ooo 

i,ao5 


Ii,5hl ' 
l,38l4 

! 9i49 

: 2,760 


: a, 793 
: 1,006 
: 1,307 
: 2,i;58 


6,013- 
1,709" 
: 1,680 
! h,3hh 


6,2^0: 

i,a55- 

1,809 
: a,21)i 


6,5oa< 

2,203! 
: 1,909 
: 5,163 


. 6,697 
2,050 
. 2,028 

a,a3o 


i 5,686 
. 2,801 
t 1,^05 
t 307 


': 3,698 
: 736 
: 2,801 
: 37li 


5,795 
: 1,529 
: 3,h98 
: 38[i 


• 5,055 
: 2,092 
: 3,900 
: a31 


i 6,165 
: 1,967 
I ■ a, 286 

; aea 


: 5,720 

: 2,021 

: a,a25 


'1 28,525 


1 27,1422 


i 38,352 


'i 36,hl9 


': ao,233 


\ 39,155 



1/ Centrifugal STigar, as distinguished from non- centrifugal, includes cane 
and beet sugar produced by the centrifugal process, vrhich is the principal 
kind moving in international trade. 

2/ Years shown are for crop years; generally the harvesting season begins 
Tn the fall months of the years shown or in the early months of the f oJ.lowj ug 
year, except in certain cane-sugar-oroducing countries in the Southern Hemis- 
phere, such as Australia, Argentina, Mauritius, Union of iouth Africa, etc., 
where the season begins in May or June of the year shown, 
3 / Pr e liminary , 
17/ Restricted crop. 



FATS AMD OILS 



World supplies of fats and oils in 1955 sj:e expected to be somewhat 
below 195^ when record quantities were available from ciirrent production 
and carry- in stocks. Total production 195^ vas about in line with a 
year earlier. However, considerable stock liquidation took place in 195^^ 
particularly in the United States^ Argentina and the United Kingdom. More- 
over edible vegetable oils available for consumption in 1955 are expected 
to be somewhat less, mainly because of a sharp decline in the 195^ Medi- 
terranean olive crop. With these e exceptions,, the general prospects for 
fats and oils show little change in the pattern established in 1953 and 
earlier. 

The estimated world production of fats and oils in 195^^ including 
the oil equivalent of oilseeds and tree -crop materials grown and harvested 
in 195^> is just over 27 million short tons. This volijme indicates a new 
record, but the increase over 1953 and 1951 is too small to be significant. 
It is significant, however, that production in recent years has been about 
13 percent above prewar, holding per capita supplies at essentially the 
prewar level. This is especially apparent when the rapidly increased pro- 
duction of synthetic materials - with their consequent displacement of 
natural fats - is brought into the fats and oils pictiore. 

FATS AND OILS:. World, production by type, averages 
1935-39 and 19i^5-U9, annual 1951-5^ 

(1,000 short tons) 



: Average : 

Tj'pe : : 

:1935-39:19^5-^9 : 1951_:_1952_: 195 3 1/ :195^ 1/ 

Edible vegetable oils 7,050: 7,295: B,960: 8,285: ~^,920: 8,600 

Coconut and palm oils : 3,660: 2,985: 3,935: 3,785: 3,788: 3,985 

Industrial oils : 2,900: 3,010: 3,060: 3,253: 3,057: 3,105 

Animal fats : 9,030: 8,100: 9,760:10,000: 10,200:10,330 

Marine oils : 1,055: 595: 1,010: 985: 925: 1,020 

Total : 23,695: 21,985: 26, 725:26,318: 2S,390:27,0U0~ 

1/ Preliminary. : 



The production of fats and oils in a given calendar year, as estimated 
here, is to a large degree that which is available for consumption and trade 
in the following year. Thus, in addition to the animal fats and marine oils 
actually produced, the total figiire for any given year includes-less certain 
allowances for seed, feed, and food uses, as well as losses-the oil equiva- 
lent of the oilseed and tr^e-crop oil materials grown and harvested in the 
Northern hemisphere, and the oil equivalent of oilseed and tree crops grown 
in the southern hemisphere whose harvests normally begin before the close of 
the calendar year. 



^7 



Edible Vegetable Oils : Production of edible vegetable oils from raw materials 
produced in 195^ is expected to be about ^-i- percent less than the output from 
1953 crops, due largely to the sharp decline foreseen for olive oil. The out- 
standing feature of the 195^ olive crop is the very low output expected in 
Spain, where there was a killing freeze in February 195^^ followed by heavy 
snows in April, and a prolonged drou^it during the summer and fall. 

Cottonseed oil will be down from 1953 because of the I7 percent decrease 
in cottonseed production in the United States. The outtirrn of sunflower seed 
oil will be the smallest of any postwar year. Tba exceptionally small sun- 
flower seed crop in the Argentine — the smallest since 1937-38 — vas the dominat- 
ing factor although the decrease was offset somewhat by a substantial increase 
in Turkey's production. The most significant increase in the edible vegetable 
oil category will be in soybean oil. Soybean production was at an all-time 
high in 195^ as a result of a record crop in the United States and increase 
believed to have occurred in China-Manchuria. Oil from the 195^ peanut crop 
may be slightly higher than from the 1953 crop, in which case it woiHd be the 
largest output of record. The sharp decline in peanut production in the United 
States and French West Africa was offset by larger harvests in ArgentinsL; Brazil 
and Mexico and possible increases in India and Xhina. 

Coconut and Palm Oils : The outturn of oils in the palm group in 195^ increased 
from the previous year by possibly 5 percent. Coconut oil production was up 
substantially with the increase accounted for mainly by the Philippines and 
to a lesser extent by Malaya. Output in both Indonesia and Ceylon approxi- 
mated the 1953 level although early indications were that production in Ceylon 
would be down substantially. Although total production of palm oil was only 
slightly larger, a significant increase has occiirred in palm oil of edible type 
particularly in the Belgian Congo and Nigeria. Production in Indonesia probably 
continued at the 1953 level, but output in French West Africa and Malaya may 
have declined slightly. Palm kernel oil production appears to have been about 
the same as in 1953- 

Industrial Oils : Production of industrial oils from 195^ crops is expected to 
be up slightly from 1953- This is accounted for largely by the increase in pro- 
duction offls^seed and to a lesser degree, rapeseed. Larger harvests in Argen- 
tina, the United States and Canada were principally responsible for the expansion 
in flaxseed output. Considerable increase occurred in rapeseed production in 
China and Sweden but these increases were' partially offset by smaller crops in 
India and Japan. Castor production was possibly above the 1953 level, with the 
slight expansion in Brazil offset in part by the reduction in United States out- 
put. Tung oil outturn from 195^ nut production in the United States is expected 
to be less than one-third of the previous year while Argentine oil may be down 
one -fourth. 



Animal Fats : Production of animal fats in 19^h was up slightly from the 
preceding year due to moderate increases in butter (fat content), tallov 
and greases. Lard production remained about the same as the year before. 
While there was some fluctuation in production by countries, lard out- 
put by area showed no significant changes. 

Increased milk production in many countries with little or no gain 
in fluid consumption channeled more milk into butter manufactm-e, particu- 
larly in Western Einrope. The small rise in tallow and grease outturn 
resulted chiefly from slightly larger production in Canada, Mexico, Western 
Europe, and New Zealand. Apparent production of both lard and tallow and 
greases in the United States was about equal to that of 1953. Prospects 
are that world output of lard, tallow, and greases in 1955 will equal or 
slightly exceed 1954. 

Marine Oils : Marine oil ontput rose about 10 percent in 195^ with increases 
occurring in all 3 categories, namely whale oil, sperm oil, and fish oils. 
VJhile the larger outturn of whale oil in the Antarctic accounted for the 
increase in that commodity, sperm oil was up mainly because of reportedly 
heavy whaling off the cost of Peru. Fish oil production increased largely 
because of a record outturn of herring oil by Norway, the world's major 
producer. Present indications are that final United States production 
data will not differ greatly from the year before. 

Import Requirements : Import demand for fats and oils is expected to remain 
strong throughout 1955- The normally deficit countries of Western Europe 
provide the greatest market, and requirements will be expanded by Spain's 
import needs following the drastic cutback in olive oil supplies. Increased 
quantities of soybeans will be taken by Japan and Formosa and tallow pur- 
chases will reamin heavy. Continued imports are in prospect for Argentina 
where successive years of short sunflower seed crops created an edible oil 
deficit beginning in 195^+' Chile and other countries formerly dependent 
on Argentina for supplementary supplies must now turn to the United States 
and elsewhere to cover deficits. 



While India's oilseed crops have been good, exportable supplies have 
been limited by expanding home consumption. On the other hand, carry-over 
stocks of peanuts are reported to be the largest in recent years and 
shippers hope that at least a portion of any new export allotments will be 
in the form of peanuts rather than peanut oil alone. Neighboring Pakistan 
needs additional quantities of fats and oils from overseas sources. 



Trade Outlook: Export sales from the United States in recent months have 
been at record levels and are expected to ramain nearly as large during 1955- 



59 



Soybean exports will probably reach a new peak, and the high rate of 
cottonseed oil exports established in 195^ should continue as long as 
stocks are available . . , 

Sharply decreased United States trade is in prospect only in the 
case of linseed oil where the Commodity Credit Corporation virtually 
liquidated its large holdings through export channels during 195^' 
Some export sales during 1955 vill be implemented by the Agriculture 
Trade and Development Act of 195^ and limited aid programs. However, 
the great bulk of United States exports wi3-l consist of commercial 
dollar transactions. 

With some tightening of world supplies through stock reductions 
and a continued strong import demand, world prices of fats and oils 
should hold firm around late 195^+ levels until new crops are harvested. 
Individual items can be expected to depart from the general trend within 
the limits of interchangeability but relative price stabilitj'- would appear 
to be in store based on the Outlook for supply and markets. 



FRUITS 



^PP^^^ and Pears : The preliminary estimate cf the 195^ North American 
and Western European apple crop is 380 million bushels, compared vith 
330 million bushels in 1953- Unharvested apples in the northern portion 
of the United States and Canada were damaged by hurricanes in the fall 
of 195'+. A portion of these damaged apples was salvaged for processing 
or for immediate sale. 

In Europe, the crop of dessert and cooking apples is expected to 
total 265 million bushels, which will be the largest crop on record. 
The quality of the European apple crop was lowered by excessive rains. 
The pear crop, currently estim.ated at 110 million bushels compared with 
120 million last year, is smaller both in North America and Western 
Europe. 

There is a good demand for apples and pears in the European markets. 
However, the United Kingdom, which is a large market for North American 
apples, has not issued any license for pears from dollar areas and issued 
licenses only for $280,000 for the purchase of apples grown in the United 
States . 

Citrus Fruit: The United States early and mid- season orange production is 
estimated at 7I million boxes, which is 7 percent above last season and 
36 percent above the 10-year average (1943-I952). The orange crop in 6 
Mediterranean countries --Spain, Italy, Israel, Algeria, Tunisia, and French 
Morocco--is the smallest in the past 5 years. The orange and tangerine 
crop in these countries is estimated to be 70 million boxes, which is 20 
percent below that of last year. In Spain, the citrus trees are making a 
slow recovery from the devastating freeze of last February. In other 
countries there was damage to the fruit by early cold weather and only 
French Itorocco shows an increase in production. 

The lemon crop in the producing countries of Spain and Italy is esti- 
mated at 9 million boxes, which is I.5 million boxes less than that of 
last season. The United States crop at lk.6 million boxes is about 10 
percent less than that of the previous season. 

The demand for citrus fruit is rapidly increasing as consumer income 
in Europe expands further. Some countries have made more liberal allow- 
ances for dollar purchases of citrus fruit. However, the United Kingdom, 
one of the more important markets, as yet has not permitted imports of 
fresh citrus fruit from the United States 195^-55 crop. It is expected 
that there will be an increased demand for citrus fruit in the European 
markets this winter and spring. 

Raisins : The pack of raisins In the leading world-producing countries 
is estimatediat 1.8 million short tons, which is about 10 percent belcv 
that of last season. The demand for di'led fruits should ahfoi-b the 
smaller-than-usual available supplies this seapon. 



61 



POTATOES im PULSES 



Potatoes : Potatoes comprise the most important vegetable crop from the 
standpoint of tonnage and importance in the diet in the European and 
North American countries. In Exirope many potatoes are used for live- 
stock feed and for industrial purposes. 

Tlie Western European potato crop is estimated at k percent above 
the crop of last season. The crop in most countries was harvested 
under unfavorable conditions. It is below average in quality and it 
is likely that storage losses will be above average this winter. How- 
ever, supplies probably will be adequate to meet all European food 
requirements. The North American potato crop is smaller than the large 
crop of last season. The Canadian crop is slightly below normal needs 
for the country and they are likely to become a net importer rather than 
a net exporter this season. There is an increased demand for United States 
potatoes in Canada, but there is little or no trade between North American 
and European countries. 

There are no available estimates on planted acreage in the Southern 
Hemisphere countries . 

Pulses : The 195^ bean, pea, and garbanzo crops in the Northern Hemisphere 
are estimated to be k, 3, and 13 percent, respectively, larger than in 1953^ 
while lentils show no change. No composite world estimate has been made of 
the quantity of these crops produced in 195^- 55^ l^ut the above percentage 
increase applied to the 1953 estimates give totals of 120 million bags of 
beans, 20 million bags of peas (exclusive of China), 6 million bags of 
lentils, and 13 million bags of garbanzos (exclusive of India and Pakistan). 
China alone has produced as much as 60 million bags of peas, and India and 
Pakistan as much as 115 million bags of garbanzos in recent years. 

The quality of the bean and pea crops has been damaged this year in 
several areas, due to unfavorable harvest weather. Indications are that 
the usable supply may be less than a year ago. Most of the repoirted damage 
to beans occurred in Northern Europe, in North America, mostly eastern 
United States and Canada, and in certain areas of Central America. No 
extensive damage has been reported in Southern Europe, where most European 
beans are produced. 

The pea crop was damaged in the larger producing areas of Western Europe 
and western United States. The reduced supply of both beans and peas, 
particularly of peas and white and red kidney beans, is reflected in ad- 
vancing prices. In the United States, prices of peas have advanced materi- 
ally since the 195^ harvest began, and the demand for expoarts has been un- 
usually strong. Prices of Great Northeni and pea. beans are from 25 cents 
to 75 cents per hundred pounds higher than the> level in early harvest time; 



_jrices of white beans in Europe have advanced as much as 75 cents to 
:iil.00 per hundred pounds in the past several months. 

The bean and pea harvest in the early calendar months of 195^ in 
the Southern Hemisphere countries x/as slightly larger than in the 
previous year. The increase, however, was mostly a reflection of the 
estimate from Brazil which is the largest producing country in that 
Hemisphere. Most of the countries in the Southern Hemisphere producing 
small quantities of beans indicated about a normal harvest in 195^- 

No garbanzo production has been reported in the Southern Hemisphere, 
and only Argentina and Chile report any appreciable production of lentils. 
The combined 195^ harvest of lentils in Argentina and Chile of 1.1 millior 
bags was 17 percent larger than the previous year. 

Foreign inquiry in the United States for exports of peas began early 
this season and has been stronger than usual. The outlook for bean ex- 
ports, while not as optimistic as in recent years, when Mexico was taking, 
large quantities of pinto beans, is still good. 

The principal export market, Cuba, gives promise of taking a maximum 
quantity and consumption has been increasing in several European countries . 
The European market would absorb about double the recent level ol' imports 
(3.5 mill bags) if consumption were to return to prewar levels in all 
countries and domestic production were to be maintained at present levels. 



IJEATS 



Livestock Population: The world's total livestock population 
continues to increase. Both cattle and sheep were riore numerous at the 
beginning- of the year, but for cattle the rate appeared to be tapering 
off. Hog numbers decreased during 1953, but reversed the previous 
trend in 1954 in many important countries notably in the United States, 
Canada, and ester n Lurope. 

Production ; Meat production in 1954 vras 3 percent larger than in 
tiie previous year, and was 23 percent above the 1946-50 average., It 
was 22 -percent higher.than prewar (1936-40), The per capita outturn 
is about equal to prewar and about 10 percent greater than the 1946-50 
average, I.Iost of the increased meat production in 1954 occurred in 
North America and ITestern Europe, Production declined further in South 
America and increased slightly in Oceania and the Union of South Africa. 

Prospects are that meat production in most of the major areas in 
1955 will equal or slightly exceed 1954» The traditional surplus meat 
producing countries, Nevr Zealand, /lustralia, the Netherlands, Denmark, 
France, Canada, Ireland, Argentina and Uruguay v/ill produce more meat 
in 1955 as a result of increased numbers of hogs for m.ost VJestern 
European Countries and increased number of cattle for South iimerica 
and Oceania, The deficit countries, the United Eingdan, Western 
Germany, Belgium, Italy, Greece, Cuba, Central America, Caribbean 
Islands and the Union of South Africa will continue to be deficit areas 
and their importation of meat v/ill depend upon their economic condition, 

Consvimption and Trade ; Consumption in 1954 continued at relatively"'- 
high T evels in North iiraerica, Australia and the Middle Ijast, but declined 
in a number of South American countries. Consumption in Nev/ Zealand 
continued to decrease, as a result of high prices, even though pro- 
duction continued large. 

The United Kingdom is the principal import market, taking 70 
percent of the meat entering world trade. Meat imports in 1954 into 
the United Kingdom were 7 percent less than in 1953 and 24 percent 
belwr the 1938 level. The heaviest reduction was in mutton and lamb, 
but beef and bacon also declined. On the other hand receipts of fat 
cattle were more than double the ccmparable 1953 figure. Despite 
decoiitrol, which vms expected to bring about an increase in the 
importation of meat, increased horr.e production coupled with large 
stocks and increased receipts of fat cattle, had discouraged the 
expected lar{ e imports of meat from abroad. 

As a result of subsidy paym.ents and price supports, hog production 
and slaughter in the United ICingdom. have established high levels each 
year. Hog slaughter during 1954 vras estimated to be 25 percent greater 
than during 1953 a nd a moderate increase is expected in 1955, 

The export of pork products, in 1953 and 1954, especially of hams, 
increased substantially frcm Poland to \j'estern iiurope and the 
United States, 



lEAT i V.'ORID PRODUCTION, BY COi'ITniLi\ITS OR 
AREAS, AVLRAGES 1934-38 AiTO 1946-50, 
Am\UAL 1952-1954 l/ 



Area 
or 



Averages Annua 1 Annual 



Continent 1934-58 1946-50 1952 1955 1954 

nil. Lbs . Mil. Lbs . Mil. Lbs . Mil. Lbs , Mil. Lbs . 

North America 18,600 25,800 26,600 28,200 29,300 

Europe 28,800 20,200 26,900 28,000 28,900 

USSR 2/ 7, 100 3/ 3/ 5/^ z/ 

South America 8,400 10,100 9,900 9,400 9,600 

South Africa 670 920 930 1,000 800 

Oceania 3,200 3,300 3,600 3,800 3,800 

Middle East 4/ 1,100 3/l,200 ^/l,400 3/l,3C0 Vl.300 



Total 5/ 68,000 67,000 77,400 80,400 82,700 



l/ Carcass neat excludes offal, lard, rabbit and poultry meat. 

2/ Prewar territory. 

3/ /"iStiitates included in the total, 

4/ Includes Egypt, Turkey, Iraq and Iran. 

5/ Total for 41 countries vjhich produce around 93 percent of the world 
output, exclusive of China. 



MILK AlID DAIRY PRODUCTS 



65 



Production ; iiilk production in 1954 has been estimated to "be 
slightly above the estiniated production of 523 billion pounds for 1953o 
I'ost of the production was in North America and V/estern Europe, which 
together account for two-thirds of the world's production* 

Kill: production in Forth America was about 3 percent above 1953, 
but in many European countries, including Denmark, "ij'estern Germany and 
the Netherlands, production was slightly less; in the United Kingdom 
it was woll maintained. The slight increase in Australian production 
was not enough to offset the decline in milk output in New Zealand and 
Oceania's production is below that of the preceding year. 

Prospects for 1955 indicate that milk production T/ill be slightly 
larger than in 1954 in most of the major dairjz-ing areas. In the United 
States the production in 1955 is expected to be about the same as the 
124 billion pounds estimated for 1954 although production per coat is 
likely to be greater. 

The total cattle population in 15 l.estern European countries 
increased by 8,7 percent over prewar with milk covs.'-s at 11,3 percent 
more than the preivar numbers, Ililk production per dairy cow increased 
from 4,488 pounds in the prei/var period to 5,2 80 pounds in the past ■ 
year, an increase of 17,6 percent. 

Consumption and Trade ; The per capita consumption of milk and 
dairy products in the world as a vrhole has not changed materially in 
the past few years, but the dovrnward trend of prices has encouraged 
increased consumption of butter and cheese both in North America and 
1/vestern Europe and the prospects are for greater consumer purchases 
in 1955, In general, the consumption of milk and dairy products in 
most l.estern European Countries is still far below the prewar level, 
because of the decline in butter consumption. Stocks of dairy products 
in terns of v;hole milk increased during 1954, 

International trade in butter and cheese was greater in 1954 than 
in 1953, The rise in butter exports took place frcm Continental Europe 
and Argent im, but Commonwealth Countries accounted for much of the 
expansion in cheese exports. The United Kingdom, although to a lesser 
degree, has remained the largest m.arket for butter and cheese. The 
emergence of the Soviet Union and other countries of Eastern Europe 
as substantial importers has somewhat changed the established pattern 
in the marketing of butter. The Soviet Union received shipments of 
butter totaling about 90 million pounds both in 1953 and in 1954, It 
is expected that the Soviet Union will continue to be an important 
factor, influencing the marketing of butter as well as beef. France 
has a surplus of butter v/hich it is attempting to move into export 
marlfflts under an export subsidy arrangement. 



66 



The rise in vrarld milk production in 1954 vr&s reflected in an 
increase in butter output to a total of 8,8 billion pounds « In 1953 
about 8o5 billion pounds v/ere produced compared vath a prewar 
(1934-38) outturn of 9,6 billion. The expansion was minly in Uorth 
TUraerica and Lurope, since in both Australia and liew Zealand production 
was only slightly abo\e 1953, Exports of butter and cheese by Australia 
and Nev^r Zealand have been heavier in 1954 than in 1953, vrith increasing 
amounts of New Zealand butter going to Soviet Russia, Czechoslovakia 
and ".restern Germany^ The well maintained level of butter production 
has taken place in the face of increasing competition from margarine, 
the output of which increased from less than 3 billion pounds in 1938 
to nearly 5 billion in 1953 in a group of 11 countries for which data 
are available. Cheese production in 1954 in the principal countries 
of the world v;as 5,0 billion pounds, slightly more than in the previous 
year. The increased production was registered mostly in the United 
States, There has been little change in cheese production in other 
countries although in the United Kingdom the record output was more 
than double that of 1938. 

In nearly all countries the importance of milk and its products 
in the income of farmers is reflected in the various measures of 
control v>;hich the Governments have adopted in respect to prices, 
marketing and trade. In seme cases, controls have taken the form of 
actual determination of producer prices as in the United Kingdom. In 
others, purchases at fixed support price of certain milk products have 
the effect of keeping producer milk prices at the desired level. Other 
measures include the quantitative regulation of imports, sometimes by 
state-controlled monopolies, import duties and the storage under 
Government control or by official agencies of quantities of butter in 
the flush season for resale later in the yearo 



Milk: -iorld 


Id Ik Production, Average 1954-3 £ 


5, Annual 


1950-54, 


by 








Cent inent 


or Area 








Area 




:Average 












or 




:1934"38 












C ont inent 






: 1950 


: 1951 : 


1952 


: 1953 


: 1954 






Mil . lbs , 


J lil,, lbs , 


^'iil.lbs ^ 


Ililo lbs c 


iiil. lbs. 


Mil. lbs 


llorth America 




132,000 


152,000 


151,000 


150,000 


157,000 


162,000 


Vifestern Burope 




170,000 


176,000 


180,000 


179,000 


191,000 


192,000 


Eastern Eur ope 




130,000 


97,000 


97,000 


96,000 


96,000 


96,000 


Idddle East 


) 














Far East 


) 


30,000 


30,000 


30,000 


30,000 


30,000 


30,000 


North Africa 


) 














South America 




13,000 


17,000 


16,000 


18,000 


20,000 


21,000 


South Africa 




4,000 


4,000 


4,000 


4,000 


4, 500 


4^500 


Oceania 




22,000 


23,300 


22,400 


23,200 


24,200 


23,700 


World Total 


501,000 


499,300 


500,400 


500,200 


522,700 


529,200 



COFFEE 



Production ; World production of green coffee for the marketing year 
195^~55 is forecast at kl.S million bags of 132. 276 t>ounds each, compared 
with U1.7 million bags in the previous season and the prewar average of 
^1.6 million hags. 

Of the total 195^55 production, an estimated 33.7 million hags will 
he available for export, or slightly less than the 33-2 million bags of 
last season. Decreased output in Brazil and Asia again have been offset 
by increases in other -oroducing areas. World exportable production 
appears adequate to meet world import requirements during 195^~55 at 
lower average prices than in the preceding year. 

In Brazil, following the frost of July 1953. total production for 
195^-55 declined to an estimated 18.0 million bags, or almost 1.2 million 
bags less than in 1952-53- However, as a result of the current decline 
in United States takings, eX|jorts from Brazil have declined to a postwar 
low since estrly spring. Coffee stocks in Brazil on September 30 reached 
an estimated 10.1 million bags, compared \«7ith less than 6.8 million bags 
on September 3O1 1953* 

Record crops are forecast for most producing areas of North America, 
Africa, and South America (excluding Brazil and Venezuela). The high 
price of coffee has either stabilized or induced a decline in the domes- 
tic consumotion of most of the producing countries. Thus, current in- 
creases in total production represent effective increases in production 
for export only. 

Consumption ; A substantial decline in world exports is anticipated 
for l95'+~55' World importing nations purchased beyond average domestic 
requirements during 1953*"5^ and accumvilated stocks v^fere subsequently 
depleted during the summer in lieu of imports at normal levels. Con- 
sumption has declined as a result of consumer resistance to high -prices. 
The decline has been intensified through the increased usage of soluble 
coffee, coffee substitutes and other beverages. 

Outlook ; The outlook for increased coffee supDlies appears very 
favorable . l-Jith current world coffee production exceeding current world 
requirements, world coffee reserves for the first time in many years 
should expand during l95'+~55« Higher prices since World War II have 
induced substantial increases in acreages and trees in most coffee pro- 
ducing areas of the world. These acreages and trees have begun to pro- 
duce and the coffee from them will continue to widen the gap between 
requirements and supply in the future. Improved cultural practices have 
increased yield on existing acreages in many producing areas. The frost- 
blighted trees in Parana,, Brazil are recovering from the effects of the 
July 1953 frost and should be in production by 1956. 



Production ; World production of cacao beans in is expected 

to be about 1,782 million pounds compared 'ATlth 1,587 million produced in 
1953~5^ and the pre\far average of 1,580 million pounds. 

Production in Africa of 1,100 million pounds accounted for 62 per- 
cent jf world supply and was 83 million pounds above 1953-5^, but did 
not reach the 1,136 million pounds produced in 1952-53. Each of the 
principal producing countries of Africa with the exception of the French 
Cetmeroons and Equatorial Africa showed significant increases. Central 
and South America supplied 37 percent of v/orld requirements. In these 
countries the 195^-55 production surpassed 1952-53 and 1953-5^ produc- 
tion by 30 and 20 percent respectively. There were no decreases in any 
of the major producing areas, and significant increases appeared in 
Brazil, Ecuador and the Dominican Republic. 

Consumption ; The United States, the world's largest consiomer of 
cacao beans, imported 390 million pounds of cacao in the first 9 months 
of 195H compared with kGO million for the first 9 m.onths of 1953* The 
decline was partially compensated by the increased quantity of cacao 
products imported. Chocolated confectionery accounts for between 50 and 
60 percent of the total annual use of cacao beans and products. Recent 
use of butter as an extender of cocoa butter may effect future United 
States imports of cacao products. The use of cacao beans has been esti- 
mated 5 to 10 percent lower in the first half of 195^ compared to the 
first half of 1953- 

Outlook : The long term outlook for cacao will be affected by prog- 
ress in the control of serious plant diseases and pests. In many coun- 
tries the cacao improvement program for the immediate future is concer.tra- 
ted on disease and pest control looking to increasing yield per unit of 
area and improving quality rather than in making extensive new rilantings. 
In the French Cameroons and Ivory Coast effective methods of controlling 
capsid insect and -nod rot disease have been established and improved 
methods of fermenting and drying cacao beans have been developed. In 
the Gold Coast the results of the "swllen shoot" disease have been dev- 
astating. Experiments with "systemic insecticides" have proven uneuc*- 
cessful and so far the only effective method of eradicating the disease 
is by cutting out infected trees. The acceptance by the African farmer 
of new cultural methods will determine the degree of progress in improv- 
ing quality and increasing yield per tree. 

The Nigerian Government has recently amended its tax lavrs relating 
to cacao. The export duty nov; stands at 10 percent ad valorem when the 
value does not exceed I1I5O per ton with an additional one -tenth of 1 per- 
cent for every i or part of a L exceeding ijl50 tirovided the amount of 
duty does not exceed 20 percent of the value. 



TEA 



Production : World tea -oroduction in 1953 • excluding China, the 
Soviet Union, and French Indochina, is estimated to be 1,27^ million 
pounds, Just 1.5 percent below 1952 production. NecessaiT- information 
for making a 195^ fo-recast of production is not yet available. 

Prospects for the 195^-55 India tea crop are not likely to be so 
favorable as was earlier expected. Recent floods in Northern India have 
greatly handicapped the tea industry by disrupting comra\inication and 
delaying marketing. The Indian tea industry since 1939 has surprisingly 
increased production by about 50 percent without increasing acreage. 
The tea industry recognizes that without a high yield its economy will 
be shattered. High loroduction costs for tea necessitate obtaining high 
yields in order to compete on the world markets. 

Exports ; Exports from the principal -oroducing countries are regu- 
lated under the International Tea Agreement to which India, Ceylon, In- 
donesia and Pakistan are parties. For the year 195^^55 export is 
fixed at 135 tjercent of the standard quota by which India is entitled to 
exoort kfO million pounds, Indonesia 23^ million pounds, Pakistan ^7 
lion and Ceylon 339 million -oounds. 

Consumption ; The United Kingdom is the greatest market for black 
tea in the world and buys about 5OO million -Dounds annually. The barom- 
eter of Britain's tea situation is the stocks in the bonded warehouses. 
At the end of July 195^ stocks dropped to 75 million pounds or less than 
g weeks' supply. With blenders and packers competing for supplies, ajid 
vdth high coffee prices, the market for tea has been strong. 

United States imports in the first 9 months of 195^ amounted to 
93 million iDounds compared to 83 million pounds in 1953* Of this, 
37 percent came from Ceylon, 33 percent from India, I3 percent from 
Indonesia, and k percent each from Japan and Taiwan. Increased United 
States Imports in 195^ probably are due to the high nrices of the com- 
neting beverages and the stepped-up sales campaigns of the tea industry. 



COTTON 



At the beginning of the 195^55 cotton season stocks of United State 
cotton had risen nearly U.O million bales above a year earlier while 
stocks in foreign countries decreased by I.3 million bales. Stocks on 
August 1, I95^t In nearly all foreign countries, both importing and ex- 
porting, v;ere near the minimTim needed for efficient mill operations. 
United States stocks of S.S million bales account for about 70 percent 
of all stocks held in exporting countries and about Ug Dercent of the 
v'orld total. 



70 



Production ! V.orld cotton production in is ejqDected to total 

about 36,1 nillion bales, which would be 1«8 nillion bales below the record 37.^ 
million bales, produced in 1953 ' ThP reduction in the current season is due 
entirely to the drastic curtailment qf production in the United States which 
was acconrplished by means of apreage restrictions and marketing quotas. Cotton 
production in the United States from the crop will total 13 c, 6 million 

bales, 2,9 million bales less than in the previous year. Production in foreign 
countries ijicreased by 1,2 million baler, mostly in the exporting countries, 

: Consuraption ; 'iJorld cotton consumption for tlie -(/ear 1^^14.-55 is expected 
to equal or sli{^htl3'- exceed the record level of 35.0 million bales consuined 
in 1953-5U. This rate of utilization brings consmuption in line with produc- 
tion in 195U-55 for the first time since 1950 when aggregate consujnption 
exceeded production by a considerable mar^^in^ Since world consriinption in the 
current season is e:cpected to nearly equal production, cotton stocks carried 
over on August 1, 1955, will again approxiiaate the 195^1 figure of 19.8 million 
bales. 

Stocks ; Durinp the early part of the 1953-5U crop year, when prices of 
foreivTi growths were below prices of United States cotton, foreirn exporting 
countries raoved their current crops, and in so:ie instances larj.e reserve stocks, 
into trade channels thus displacing united States e:cports to some extent. On 
August 1, 19$hf United States carry-in stocks of upland cotton plus the current 
crop and expected imports provide a supply more than 25 percent above the 
"normal" supply as defined by law. For this: ..reason,. .e2;is.ting leg islation requires 
that cotton acreage restrictions and marketing quo.ta^ continued in 1955. A 
marketing quota for upland cotton of 10 million bal^^s and a national acreage 
allotment of 18,113,000 acres has been proclaimed Xpr tjie 1955 cotton crpp. 

Prices t In the early morithis of I^5if'"c'ot't;oji 'prices, outside ^tlie United- 
States vjere still- belovr prices of Ini'teH States cotton of comparable quality. 
This sitijation was due lar^el-'^ to sharp reductions in prices of cotton in 
several foreign countries, notacl^'- Egyi^t end Brazil, where large stocks of 
cotton from previous crops had accuinulated. By early fall of 1951', however, 
most of the surplus foreign stocks had been sold and prices of most foreign 
growths had risen to levels equal to, and in some instances, above prices of 
United States cotton. Cotton prices in the United States fluctuated less than 
have the prices for foreign growths. During the current season they have been 
above those of a year earlier v±th maximum monthly variations on the 10 spot 
markets for i.iiddling l5/l6 inch holding witliin a ran^e of one cent per poujid. 
At the present time (December 195U) the spot prices for United States cotton in 
the United States are at about the same level as prices for foreign growths of 
comparable quality in foreign spot markets. 



71 



COTTON: World production, consumption, and exports average 1935^36 to 1939~^0» 
annual 1951-52 to 195^-55. W principal regions 

(in thousands of bales of 500 pounds gross weight) 



PTOfiiipl'.i nn 

other Western : 


Average 


Annual 


1939-^0 


1951-52 


[ 1952-53 


; 1953-54 


; 195^55 1/ 


13.1^9 ? 

3.085 i 
l2,U6g ! 
ll+7 : 
2.gU0 : 


15.1^9 

^.519 . 
12,759 . 
228 
3.05^+ 


I 15*139 
i '+,131 

! 12,67^ 

255 

^ 3,526 


i l6,U65 

1 

i ^,097 
5 lU,oi5 

: 323 
! 3.004 


: 13.569 

: 4,994 
: 14.115 

: 338 
t 3.058 


Tnt.al Wnrlfi < 


■^1 fi8Q 


35.709 


; 35.725 


t 37.90U < 


36.074 


Consuniption • 
Other Western : 


6.932 i 

J/ I.UOO : 
3/ 11 , 800 : 
3/ 8.300 : 
3/ 100 


4 
« 

t 
1 

9.196 ? 

2,3^^ i 
12,658 J 

7,955 ; 
Uio 


t 

1 1 

1 

9,^61 't 

2.355 : 
13,529 : 
7. 708 : 

; U50 


8.581 ? 

2,4l6 ; 
l4,810 : 
8,618 : 
: 485 








' 32.563 


: 33.503 


I 34,910 


. , — , 


Exnort a 

Other Western 
Hemisphere 


: 5.589 

! 1.7^6 
: 3.272 
: 2 
: 2,638 


: 5.711 

; 1,726 

: 2,5Ul 
i 21 
: 2.181 


s 3.181 

i 1.992 
: 3.318 
: 26 
; 3.064 


i 3.914 

5 3,139 
; 3,127 
: 29 
t 3.027 








Total World 


: 13.2U7 


: 12,180 


; 11,581 


i 13.236 





1/ Preliminary. 

2/ Includes the U. S.S.H. 

3/ 1934^35/1938-39 averages from World Fiber Survey, FAO, Washington 1947, 



Export Outlook ; The outlook for Unite,d States cotton e::ports for the 
current season continue's favorable. For 195^4-55 season throO'ih November the 
New lork Cotton ixhange estiinates that e:rports of cotton from the United 
States totaled 1,020,000 bales, 19 percent above the off icia^ir' eicport figure 
of 860,000 bales to the sa*^ie date last season. 

With prices of United States cotton at levels competitive xrith foreign 
grouths of sirailar quality, de-nrnd for United States cotton in roajor importing 
countries has been stron,/ since the be^innin^ of the 195U-55 s.eason. The total 
export movement for the entire 195U-55 season is e:5>ected' to exceed the ip53-5U 
movevfient of 2><'9 '.nillion bales b;^'" 20 percent, ... • ' 

Net cotton importing co^ontries of the Free World accounted for 11,3 
million bales or 88 percent of the 1953-5U world cotton import trade of nearly 
13 .0 million bales. Stocks of cotton in 'lost of these countries on August 1, 
195Uj aver£;ed less than 1^ months' mill requirements, which is considered to 
be about as low as stocks can be allowed to decline mthout jeopardizing 
efficiency of mill operations. 

Gold and dollar reserves in Western Tiiropean countries are reported to be 
substantially h.i her than a "^'^ear a lo, but so .iewhrt loxxer in the major cotton 
importing countries of Asia, At the present time there are no restrictions on 
imports of United States cotton into a number of countries including Canada, 
India, Uestem Germany, United Kin:-dom, Svjeden, Switzerland, and for all 
practical purposes, Bel.' ium and the Netherlands, On tlie other l:iand, continuing 
dollar e::c lan^e-problefiis in certain Asian ■ countries threaten some curtailment 
of imports from. the United States. This problem notwithstanding^, exports from 
the United States in 195U-55 are expected to exceed 1953-5U e>:ports- b-"- roughly 
'three-qv.arters to a million bales. 



73 



• 1.0 PL ■ 

ohcop i'Omij'bcrs : The world total of 84l million hc£.d of she op in 195^ 
Wc-s 12 percont greater than the 1936-^0 average, Except in i\iorth -anerica 
sheep num'bers increased in most important producing areas in 1953. Favor- 
able retxirns to producers for wool and a strong demand for mutton and lamt 
in recent years have favored expansion in most important sheep areas. 

The important sheep producing countries showing increases in sheep 
numbers in I953 end probable increases in 195^ include -^-.ustralia, --i.rgentina, 
India, the Union of ;iouth ^frica, and Kew Zealand, Gains also were register- 
ed in Uruguay and the United Kingdom, Numbers changed little in Spain and 
probably were slightly lower in the USSR at the beginning of 195^. 

..ool - i.^roduction ; I'/orld production of wool in 195^ set a new record 
of 4,430 million po\inds, greasy basis, 12 percent above the 193^-^0 average 
production. On a clean basis the 1954 out-out will be about 2,555 million 
pounds, .^orld consumption in 1953 was estimated at around 2,600 million 
pounds. ..ith the exception of Canada, the United States, and Western 
Germany, wool production has increased above prewar levels,. The principal 
wool consuming countries indica.te lower consumption in 1954 compared with 
the previous year. The output in both -...ustralia and Uruguay is at record 
levels, while output in the Union of South ^.frica is near record^ V/ool 
production will show an increase in 1954 in Europe and ^-sia as a result 
of the increased numbers of sheep. Output in USSR is likely to shnw a 
■decline. 

Consumption and Trade : Prices of wool declined during September, 
October and iMovember, as compared v/ith the same period of 1953« '-^^^ 
2iustralian wool auctions in September 1954 opened 10 to 15 percent lower 
than a year earlier and fluctuated down\i/ard to mid-iiovember , The dewnward 
trend was partially due to the waterside strikes in the United Kingdom s^nd 
Australia, By late mid-December prices shov;ed a strong tendency to become 
firm. 

It appears that adequate su|)plies of wool will be available to meet 
the expected moderate increase in consumption next year. Three of the 
major uncertainties of the present depressed woel situation relate to the 
probable level ef spinning activity in the United States, the Japanese 
foreign exchange position and the extent of Hussian buying, ^jnerican wool 
cons-umption in the first nine months of 1954 was only three-four chs of the 
rate of the same period in 1953. while Japanese imports up to July showed 
a drop of 30 percent compared with 1953- 

-Production and consumption of wool in 1954-55 e-^e not greatly eut of 
balance, xhe 1954 'Output appears to be 50 million pounds, clean basis, 
in excess of consumption e The increasing rvailability of sther fibers 
(man-made) and the gradual increase of world w«>ol production v/ould appear 
to make available adequate supplies of apparel fiber, at reasonable prices, 
for an expanding v;orld population. 



7h 



livOOL: Estimated V/'-'rld Production, Greasy Basis, 
averages 1936-40 and 1946-50, 
iinnual 1952 to 195^, 
"by Continents or ^reas. 















(/) cr (-) 


jirea or Continent: 


iiVerai2;es 




Annual 




19^54 





1936-40 


194.6-50 


1552 _ 


1553 


_ 1954 


1936-40 




Mil.l-bs. 


Mil. lbs. 


Mil .i'bs . 


Mil.llDs, 


Mil. lbs. 


Percent 


iviurth. xunerica 


452 


309 


287 


293 


295 


-3^.7 


-Ciiirope 


488 


426 


495 


503 


510 


/ ^.5 




310 


312 


400 


4oo 


390 


/25.8 


ASia 


344 


356 


399 


402 


4o6 


/I8.0 


South America 


: 639 


733 


728 


732 


728 


/13.9 


Africa 


: 337 


282 


3^6 


352 


364 


/ 8.0 


Oceania _ 


: 1,366_ 


1,432 


1.699 


1,669 _ 


1,21^ 




'ictal 


3,930 


3,850 


4,350 


4,360 


4,430 


/12.5 



POULTAY rJH j EGGS 

Production : a fairly general increase in the production of eggs in the 
principal producing countries has been associated with the increase in poultry 
numbers, which has been small, and more importantly with improved, methods of 
production. Production of eggs in the principal egg producing countries, 
excluding ^astern Europe and the USSR in 195^ was estimated to be 135 billion 
eggs, 4 percent greater thcJi in the preceding year and approximately 50 per- 
cent above prewar. 

In an increasing n\amber of countries, poultry, meat and eggs are making 
a substantial contribution to the improvement of diets. Only limited informa- 
tion is yet available on this important segment of world agriculture. 

Co nsumption and Trade ; World trade in shell eggs has not fully reflected 
the decline in United Kingdom imports, largely because of a very marked in- 
crease in imports by Ivestern Germany whose takings since 1951 have exceeded 
these of the British. ^Vorld exports in 1954, the highest in postwar years, 
were ^nly 10 percent less than in 1938, a rise in experts fvcm Denrarxk and 
the Netherlands partly offsetting a decline in those fr(m the Balkan and 
Baltic countries tc .western Germany, The increase in egg pre ducticn and 
trade in 195^ b.as been acci mpanied by a Icwer level cf prices. 



r >.nlion pounds 
World oute P^o ^^^/^eaK period ^^.^g areas, 

t-eauced t» "!J^3.e "before the ^^^^ 

P^"^ ^<= tbe pr^'^^^^ t^f^tured goods. 

Pakistan t^^c ^lanuf actui 

ConsuitgiiSE' . exporter oi J country- larger 

Tn India tne ^ con-oi^ mim°^ «r-cent ^as snipt' Qgrmany, 

large- ^.If^ XZO mil'^^'^^e^ countries, S^^^es "f^^^creases 
compared v^h 2 A^^^ *\^;S^e.t. U-^f^ sre^f^,^,ao« *e 

^-rance, Exports ^° ^^e Unitea 

6 percent. J^^ ^,,ose to ^^f .esult 

^^c^ ^"^^^^"^ ,...d .ro» .---/or 

purchasirjg-^ ."ll/ferent 

liquidation' ; ^ in a dxfl , ^ome of 

expects* *° till requirs^- j^^^ ^^^°iXti^e wrP°«^ 

.-o^ of B«r»pean .ute ^d»strx,,, ^^^^ ..t. 

, -S^"--— ^^^^ 



76 



- 2 - 

Prices of jute held faii-ly steady during the early part of 195^ in 
spite of government forecasts of restricted acreages in producing countries. 
Prices, however, began to show signs of strengthening when first shipments 
of new-crop jute were slow in entering the market. 

Hard Fibers Production : World production of the 3 principal hard fibers - 
abaca, sisal, and henequen - reached a total of l,38o million pounds in 
1953 compared with 1,377 million in 1952 and a prewar average of 1,1^1 
million pounds. Total production for 195^ is expected to remain high. 

Abaca output in 1953 >fas only 282 million pounds. Production in 195^ 
continues the declining trend of several years. The retarding effect of 
mosaic disease in the Philippines is now the principal factor in reduced 
output, although the Central American crop is also declining. Henequen 
production fell to 23^ million pounds in 1953 after a steady decline tlirough 
the years from the wartime average of 293 million pounds. The downward trend 
is principally in Mexico, but Cuban production has also declined in the past 
two years. Crops of the current year are expected to show a slight increase 
in Cuba but a decrease of possibly 10 percent in Mexico. 

Sisal production on the other hand continued a steady increase. Output 
was 86h million pounds in 1953 compared with an early postwar average of 552 
million pounds, a wartime average of 512 and a prewar average of 507 million 
pounds. British East Africa, the greatest producer, led with production of 
U57 million pounds compared with kkj million in 1952. Brazil, second in 
importance, held steady, but Angola and Mozambique increased their output by 
ik and 6 million pounds, respectively. 

Prices: Prices of all three fibers have declined quite steadily in the New 
York market since the price break in 1951. A slight strengthening early in 
195^ was followed by a continuation of the downward trend. As of September 
195^'- the landed New. York price of Mexican henequen was quoted at about 83 
percent of the average 1953 price, British East African sisal No. 1 at Qk 
percent, and Philippine Manila I, Davao, at 70 percent. 

The United States is the principal market for Philippine exports Df 
abaca, and Mexican and Cuban exports of henequen. British East African 
sisal is destined principally for the United Kingdom with the United States 
ranking second. The United States also received sizeable qixantities of 
sisal from Haiti, Brazil, Mozambique, and Indonesia. 



.1, 



TOBACCO 



77 



Production ; V^orld production of tobacco in 19Sh totaled al ov't 1 = 9 bil- 
lion pounds. This was k percent hi:;her than the 1953 world ovtpnt and 7 
percent greater than the 19h7"5l average. Production of cigarette t3rpes 
(except Oriental) was up substantially, 'i'orld production of fluer-Qured leaf — 
the principal type entering xjorld trade — was up 175 iriillion pounds xvith 
larger supplies available in Southern Rhodesia, Canada^ Japan and China, There 
was another large crop in India, wSouthern Rhodesia, Canada and India are 
important competitors of the United States in world export trade. 

Stocks : Total world stocks of tobacco are believed to have increased 
somewhat d^jring 19$h* Larger supplies were made available in a number of the 
important producing countries. In a number of the larger importing countries 
some stock rebuilding occurred. 

Consumption : Indications are that an increase in world tobacco consump- 
tion occurred in 19$h» In most countries cigarette output continued upwards 
and more than offset the continuing decline in consumption of most other 
tobacco products. The net increase in overall tobacco consumption took place 
primarily as a result of generally improved economic conditions, and further 
increases in the adult population. It is believed that. on a per capita basis 
there was little or no upx-jard movement, however, in consumption levels. 

Outlook for 19^h-S$ i Tobacco consumption, although usually considered 
to be relatively inelastic, is responsive to : adjustments in economic activity. 
The economic outlook for 195U-55 is for generally favorable conditions in 
most of the world. The indices of industrial production in Western Europe 
are at high levels. This is the area to which 75 to 80 percent of United States 
exports of tobacco is shipped. International trading relations of most of 
these countries have shora much improvement in the past year or soj Gold and 
dollar reserves are generally larger than they have been in recent years* 
Several countries during 195U liberalized their restrictions on tobacco imports 
from the dollar area* In view of this liberalization and the prospective 
upward trend in consumption, demand for United States tobaccos should increase 
somewhat in 195U-55o 

United States Exports t For the calendar year 195u, exports from the 
United States are estimated at 5 percent below the 1953 total of 519 million 
pounds. The 1953 figure was augmented somewhat by large exports to the 
United Kingdom in the spring of the jear which normally would have m.oved out 
in the fall of 1952, S^cports during the 195U-55 marketing season may be 
between 7 and 10 percent larger than those in 1953-5U> which amounted to about 
h60 million pounds (export weight). The movement of leaf under the Agricul- 
tural Trade Development and Assistance Act, Public Law USO, 83rd Congress, is 
expected to aid materially in increasing the movement. Some stock rebuilding 
ir foreign countries probably x^ill take place during 195U-55* 



Tobacco: Production by continents, averages 1935-39 and 
19h7-5l, annual 1953 and 195U, farm sales 
weight 1 / 



Continent i 


5 1935-39 

! Average ! 


t 19U7-51 • 

! Average 


. 1953 


195ii JJ 




rdllion 
Pounds 


Million 
Pounds 


Million 
.Pounds 


Million 
Pounds 


North America 


1,685 


: 2,Ij.60 


2,iiU5 


: 2,618 


South America 


: 308 


: 382 


1476 


il72 


Europe (including 
U.S.S.R.) 


1,181 


• 1,218 


:l,2[i7 


1,2U8 


Africa 


! 127 


256 


: 320 


316 


Asia (excluding 

U.S.S.R.) 3 / 


: 3,183 


: 2,931 


^2,966 


i 3,089 


Oceania 


7 


: 9 


11 


: 12 


TO PAL 


6,[i91 


: 7,256 


7,U65 


> 7,755 



1 / Calendar year basis, 2 / Preliminary, 3 / Excludes lianchuria. 




1022218681 



NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL LI8RARV 




1022218681 



i