Skip to main content

Full text of "World wheat prospects"

See other formats


Historic, archived document 



Do not assume content reflects current 
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. 



/ 

/ 

/ 



I 



UNITED STATES 
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 
LIBRARY 




Reserve 



Book number ■'••^ 

Ec752F 

WH no. 69-80 

1932 

531940 

spo 8— 7S71 



UNITED STATES DEPi\B'7MEWT 0? AGRICULTURE 
Bureau of .A^ricul*our.o,l Ecoaio nlcs 
V«aslii^i,;,ton 




WH-69 



WOIiD 'i'HlAT PROSPECTS 



During the pasit month there has bscn a iriarlcet increase in world ship- 
ments of wheat, accordin;^; to the Bureau of Agricultural EconOiaics. Total 
world shipments fell to an avera^^'s level of around 12 million bushels weekly 
during rc-cevnbcr, but for the week ended January IS they air.ounted to 17 million 
bushclr, and for the wee]: ended Januarj-- 23 they amounted to sli4;htly over 
19 million oushels. The marked increase has been dae to a rise in shipments 
from the Southern Hemisphere. Australian shipments began to increase rapidly 
late in December, and for the third week in January ar^iourted to over 
7,500,000 bushels. Argentine shipments showed some siuall increase in Dc;cember, 
but did not increa.se grea.tly until mid-January, 

ITneat prices in United States markets have shown little net chsr^ge 
since early Deceir.ber, but at Liverpool there has been some further decline. 
The diver^^ent movement of prices in ti:e Unit';'d States a-i'id Liverpool ..las re- 
sulted in May futures at Chicago closing at about 4 cents per bushel higher 
than Ma;;,' futures (United States exchange) at Liverpool on January 27. 
Ordinarily, Chicago futures are considerably below Liverpool. 

Liverpool prices remained fairly steady through December and up to mid- 
January, With the very h.,ovy shipments fro-,;i the Southern Hem.i sphere, however, 
prices weolcened, the -.iay future declining from a level of about 56 cents 
per bushel during the second week of January to 54 cents per busncl on January 



The present estimates of production aiid carry-over as of January 1 
indicate that the surplus available .lo.r . export and carry-over of Argentina 



WH-59 -2-^ 

find Australia combined is approximately 275 million bushels compared with 
322 million bushels last year. Tlie Argentine surplus is about the same as 
last year, being placed at 150 iuillion bushels compared with 158 million for 
1931, v/hile that of Australia is indicated to be 126 miillion bushels compared 
with 164 million in 1931. 

The total amount of wheat available for export cjid carry-over in the 
United States, Conoda, Argentina, and Australia, is estii/.ated at a total of 
970 million bushels as of January 1 compo.red V(/ith 961 million a year ago. 
Present indications are tna^t the exporting countries of the Daimbe Basin and 
Russia h'lve somewhat less wneat available for export th,?a: at this time a year 
ago, but as a rule their contribution to world exports during the period 
January to July is relatively smell. In the importing countries of Europe 
generally, remaining supplies of domestic wheat and stocks of imported wheat 
appear to be sm.all, though for the United Kingdom stocks are very large. 

The above cstimiatc of wheat available for export DUd carry-over includes 
for the United States a figu.re of 429 million bushels as of January 1, 1932, 
compare! v/ith 355 inillion a year earlier. The estimated total supply of wiicat 
available in the United States for the 1931-32 season, including carry-over 
from the preceding yea.r and the new crop, amounted to 1,211,000,000 ousncls. 
Allowing for a .cons-ornption of 635,000,000 bushels for food, feed and waste 
(compared with 651,000,000 bushels disappearance for these purposes lo.st year) 
caid 73,000,000 bushels to be used as seed, would leave 503,000,000 bushels 
ovailablc for export during the 1931-32 season ojad for carry-ov^-r into 
the following crop year, llet exports of wheat including flour from July 1 
to December 31 were opproxim.ately 74,000,000 bushels (of which, however, 
about 14,000,000 bushels is in store in Conada apparently awaiting s-Ie abroad), 
leaving a total of 429,000,000 bushels available in the United States as of 



WH-69 



-3- 



. Jaaaar;:^ 1 for czport and carry-over, coi'.pared with 355 million a year earlier. 
In order to arrive at the approximate exportable s^arplus of the United 
States as distinct from the n;;irpl:is available for export and carry-over, it 
is necessary to dcd'^ct an allo'.vru'ice for norinal cany-over. A "normal" 
mininrojn carry-over on farms and in the hai-^ds of the trade and millers is 
about 125 million cushels. Subtr?cting this would leave 304 million bushels 
nominally available for export during the remainder of the season compared 
with 230 million a j-ear earlier. Included in the fij^iirci of 304 million bushels 
nominally available for export, however, are the Stabilir^ation Corporation 
stocks. These are reported to nave been about 187 million bushels as of Decem- 
ber 31, including 29 million bushels of futures, but not including wheat 
alrepd^/ODld abroad but not yet shipped. Since the Stabilization Corporj.tion 
is committed to v/itliholdiug laost of its stocks from the market, such amounts 
as they may hold are not available for export dv.ring the curi-ent season. 

S owin i^:s and December J._ Cond ition of Winter IfVhe at and 5,ye Crops 

Winter wheat was sown this fall (1931) in the United States on 
38,682,000 acres, a reduction of 4,467,000 acres or 10.4 per cent from the sow- 
ings in th.e fall of 1930. Actu'sl sowings arc, therefore, slightly above 
sowings intended on August 1, when intentions to reduce sowings by 12.0 per 
cent were rcTOortcd. Decreased sowings ere shown for all parts of tne country, 
the reduction being 12.3 per cent for the Ivortn Central States, 12 per cent for 
the iVestcrn Stctcs, 6.1 per cent for the South Central, 5.1 per cent for the 
ITorth Atl.mtic end 1.5 per cent for tne Souti- >i.tl-.ntic . Heductions were 
greatest in the plains area from "iontm'.a to Oklcoiona, in the Ohio Valley 
States and in ¥a;"hington. This is the firct subst;.iiitirl change in acreage 
sown to winter wheat since th-e fall of 1928 when sowings fell by about equal 
amo-'ont from the high figure of 47,317,000 acres sown in 1927. The sov.ungs 
of 1927 had been cxceodLd only twice; in 1921 when they were 47 , 930,000 raid 
in the war yerr 1918, when they reached 51,485,000. The present acrec^^e sown 
is 39.2 per cent of the s^wn average of the preceding three years, 19^8-1930. 

Sowings in rruch of the hard red winter wheat area of t:;e central plains 
and in ma:.iy sections of tne Far '/Jestcrn a:-'-d the Eastern Stntes were made under 
unfavorable conditions of extreme dryness. As a result the crop in those 
sections got a late start and i-i soi.ie cases the wheat is still unsproiited, 
though lat- rains have helped in m?ny areas. Sowings in the soft red winter 
whea.t area of the. East ITorth Central States were made under alinost ideal 
conditions but tne uimsually warm weather of the last month has led to such 



')VH-69 -4- 

a heavy £.rowtli r.s to involve danger of k^vevc.e vrinter loss in case of sudden 
severe we-ather witliout adequate snow protection. 

The condition of v/inter wher.t on December 1, l£3l for the United States 
was reported at 79.4 per cent of normal, 6.9 points below the condition on 
Eecevaber 1, 1930 nnd about 3.8 points below the 10-year (1921-1930) overage 
condition on December 1, The condition this year is the lowest December 
condition since 1890 with the exception of 1917 and 1921. In other years 
with correspondingly low condition, vdnter loss of .acreage has been o.bove over- 
age. In general, condition w,as above .■iiv -.rr le in the principr.1 soft winter 
wheat area but below average in the reir;,:dnder of the country. 



ififheat Pri ces 

'ifheat prices rt the principal ^-'orld I'loxlce'ts chonged 'jerj little during 
the month of December. The small ch<?aiges tho.t were recorded were for the 
most part downwo.rd. Liverpool futures, in term.s of gold, were practicolly 
the sojne o,s the Chicago quotations on December 5. D\;.ring the remainder of the 
month, Chicago o.v^^raged from 1 to 2 cents under LiveriDool. On January 23, 
hov/ever, Chicago May futures closc;d at 58 cents which was 3 cents above the 
Liverpool close, 

M,cy futures nt Chicago trended .downv/ard during the first part of the, 
mionth re;j.Ghing r, low of 54-5/8 cents per bushel on DecoLiber 9 crid subsequently 
advancing to .59-1/8 cents on December 15. Declines daring the last half of 
the month brought M.ay futures at Chicago down to 55f cents on December 23. 
The closing price on December 31 v/o.s .56-7/s cents per bushel, '.lay futures 
at Kansas City end Minneapolis followed courses that were in general similar 
to those in Cnicr^'-;o, The low point for the month at Kansas City was 47-4- cents 
per DLishel on December 9, and at MinnecLpolis 63-5/8 cents on the same date. 
The high point at Kansas City was 51f cents on December 1. At Minneapolis 
the high point coj-ae on December 15 when May futures closed at- 67-7/8 to 68 
cents. During the first week oi January, Mroy futures at these markets register- 
ed small G,dyr';.iCes , Chicago closing o.t 57^^ - 5/8 01: Jonur.r;- 7. Konaas City 
closed at 50-l/S and Minneapolis at 68-3/8 on that date. At Winnipeg, May 
futures on the first of December closed at 55.9 - 56 cents per bushel. Declines 
during the first three weeks of December resulted in a low for the mont:i of 
49.3 cents on December 21. Subsequent advances brought May futures at fiis 
market to 53 cents on December 31 rjid 53,8 on Januaiy 6. At Liverpool there 
v;ere small fluctuations in May futures durin/;, December, but the close on 
December 31 of 57^^ ci:;nts per bushel was the sai^e as the closing price on 
December 1. A small advance during the first week of January resulted in M,-y 
futures closing at 58-3/8 cents or, January 7, 

Cash prices at the majority of the principal v/orld markets declined 
during the month of December. Prices at markets in cour.tries wncre a re- 
stricted trade policy is in effect did not follow the course of v;orld market 
prices. In some instc^ices prices o.t these markets .-.dvpaiced dur-Vv:g December, 
No. 2 Hr-rd Winter at K.-jisas' City for the week ended Dec em.ber 4 a'.-:raged 53.6 
cents per bushel :\s compared with, csi aver.age of 51 cents for the week ended 
December 31. On January 6 the cash close was 50-51 cents per bu'Vid. ITo.l 
Dark ll-.)r the rn Spring Minneapolis averaged 76.8 cents per bushel for tnc wcdc 
ended Dccemiber 4. A rapid decline during the following week resulted in an 
average of 72.9 cents for the week ended December 11 which was the week of 



Ym-69 




lowest average prices, Tlie lo'.v point in daily prices for this grade of wheat 
at Minneapolis was 57-7/3 cents o::currin(r,' on December 23 and 28. Cash close 
on Janiiary 5 was 59g - 72>t. 

All classes and grades at 5 rr.arhetG in tl'.e United States s.ver.'-i^;ed 

73 cents per bushel for t'he we'^]: ended December 4, advanced to aii average of 

74 cents for trie weelc ended December 11 and subseC[uentl,v declined to tne low 
average of 71 cents for the weeh ended December 31, 

No. 3 biaxiitoba Horthern at Winnipei_^ averaged 45.7 cents per bushel for 
the week ended December 4 as compared with an average of 41.6 cents for the 
weeh ended December 31. All sales of imported parcels a.t Liverpool averaged 
59.5 cents per busiiel for tne woeaC ended December 4 and declined during the 
month to an average of 57,5 cents per bashel for the week ended Decen.ber 24. 
No, 3 L'^e^iitoba Northena at Liverpool averaged Gl cents per' bushel during 
the first week of December ond declined to arx average of 60 cents during the 
week ended December 24. For th^. corresponding period in 1930 this class and 
grade of v.'heat averaged 70 cents per bushel. Rosafe wheat at Liverpool for 
the week ended Decembvjr 4 averaged 55 cents per b^ishel and declined to an 
average of 53 cents for the week ended December 24, Price advances v/ere 
recorded at Paris and Milan for domicstic w'iioat during the mionth of December. 
At Paris doxnestic wheat averaged $1.62 p^-r bushel during tne first and second 
v/eeks of DecembL.r, Subsequent advances brougat the price to an average of 
$1.65 for the week ended December 31.- At i'lilaai the advance was from an 
average of $1.44 for the first week of Decorber to an average of $1..52 during 
the last v;eek. Prices of domestic wheat a-t Berlin suffered a decline during 
the first part of December from $1,43 for the first v/ee-: to an a-verage of 
$1.38 for the second week of the month. The average for tne week ended 
December 31 was $1.40 per bushel. 



WH-69 



-6- 



xble 1.- Vfooat: Pi-icu per buslicl at spacii led niarkot? , October 
2, 1931 - January 8, 1932 



Oct. 



Nov 



Dec. 



Jan. 





ii-arisa.s 


Minne- 


: Winni- 


. BTienos 


: Liver- 


:Greo.t 










: City 


aiDolis 


: peg 


Aires 


pool 


: Britain 


Berlin 


Paris 


: Milan 


led 


: a/ 


\l 


• c/ 


ay 


e/ 












• Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


C en t s 


Cents 


I Cents 


; C t-n t T 


C en t s 


Cents 


2. . . 


: 43.3 : 


68.2 


40.1 • 


38.2 


; 55.3 


: 50. 5 


133 


: 165 


: 132 


9. . . 


: 41.7 : 


69.1 


3 9.. 8 


40. 5 


54.4 


55.2 


135 


: 165 


: 134 


16. ..- 


47.0 


71.4 


42. S 


: 44,5 


: 57.3 


I 59.7 


132 


: 157 


: 134 


23. . . 


47.8 : 


70.7 


46.7 


44. 8 


61.5 


64.0 ' 


135 


166 


: 138 


30. ..; 


52.4 : 


74.7 


49. 9 : 


46.7 


61.6 


: 66. 7 


141 


162 


141 


6. . . 


• 59.7 


32.6 


57.1 


51 . 2 


70. 9 


: 66,3 


147 


165 


141 


13. . . 


Gl.S : 


81.4 : 


54. 8 


51 . 5 


68.7 ! 


69.3 


144 


164 


: 146 


20. . . 


58.1 : 


78.1 


51. 5 ; 


50. 7 


65. 9 


68. 8 


' 146 


: 162 


. 144 


27. . .: 


54.1 . 


77.1 . 


47. 9 


46.4 


63.7 


65. 3 


144 


159 


143 


4. . . 


55 . 6 : 


76.8 


45.7 : 


41.6 • 


59.6 


59.1 ; 


143 


162 


• 144 


11. . . : 


52. 8 : 


72. 9 


43.7 


41. 6 ' 


59,1 


tT'O • 


138 


162 : 


144 


18. ..: 


53.4 : 


73.8 < 


42.7 : 


40.8 


55,7 


57.2 


137 


: 163 


146 


24. .. 


51.3 : 


73.2 


41.3 


42,4 : 


57.5 . 


55.7 


138 


166 . 


150 


31. . . : 


51.0 : 


74.1 : 


41.6 : 


42.9 


58.1 


: 54.7 


140 


166 


152 


8. . .: 


51.6 : 


74.2 ; 


43.1 


42.7 . 




: 54.3 


143 


168 




15. . . 


53.1 . 


77.3 


43.0 : 


41.9 






145 


166 


■ 155 


?P 


54.2 : 


78.8 : 


44.1 








146' 


• 169 : 


154 



Prices are averag'es of daily prices for weel's ending Tridoy except as follo^/irs: 
Great Britain prices of home grown wheat are averages for the week ending 
Saturday. Berlin, Paris, and Milan prices are Wednesdaj^ quotations. Prices at 
Winnipeg, Buenos Aires and Liverpool are converted to United States money at 
the current rates of exchajige beginning with the week ended September 25. Prices 
at Berlin, Paris and Milan are converted at the current rates beginning September 
2. 

a/ Ho. 2 Hard Winter, b/ ilo, 1 Dark ICorthern Spring, c/ Ho. 3 Manitoba L'orthern, 
d/ Near futures, e/ All sales of imported parcels, f/ Home grovm wxieat in 
England and Wales, .g/ Domestic, "Markischer" wheat 58-59 pounds per Winchester 
bashel. 



WK-.69 



-7- 



Table 



2.- Vfiieat: Weighted averr^e cash prices at stated markets 





:A11 classes 


In 0 


p 


No 


. 1 


IIo 


• 2 t ITo* 2 


'iifestern 


W e ek 


rand grades 




' -Lil U'."X 


:Dk.N. Spring i Amber Durum* Red Winter ! 


White 


ended 


: six markets 


Kans J 




I.linnet 


"ipo lis' 


Minneapolis* 


St. Louis ! 


Seattle a/ 




, 1 jOU 


1 jOI 


193C 


1 9''^l 


: 1930 


1931 


i 930 


1931 


1930 


1931 


1930 


1931 




: C en t s 


: Cents 


. uents: 


0 en t s 


: Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


•Cents 


Cents 


u c U • J 


: 77 


53 


: ro 


42 


: 85 


69 


80 


72 


: 90 


46 


. 76 


53 


lo 


: 75 


: 59 


I fO 


4^ 


: 82 


: 71 


: 78 


78 


: 88 


; 50 


■ 74 


. 54 




: 77 


: 59 ; 


r b 


48 


' 83 


71 


• 79 


80 


: 87 


52 


73 : 


59 


i.r\ 


: 75 


: 62 


r-i 


52 


81 


75 


: 78 


83 


: 87 


: 55 


: 76 , 


65 




: 71 


69 


71 ; 


60 


77 


: 83 


70 


93 


82 


53 


71 


. 75 


lo 


: 68 • 


72 


! b r 


62 


: 73 


81 


68 


91 


82 


. 65 . 


68 


74 




: 68 . 


67 


C Ci 

.68 ; 


58 


: 73 


■78 


68 : 


82 


: 83 : 


61 • 


68, : 


57 




: 73 


: 64 


: ; 


54 


78 : 


77 ; 


74 


; 80 


84 ; 


60 


: 70 ■ 


65 


Dec . 4 


^ '~7 

: 73 


o2 


71 : 


54 


: 78 


• 77 : 


75 


78 


. 84 


58 


70 


64 


11 


: r4 


62 


( d ; 


53 


: 79 


73 


76 


• 84 


: 85 


• 57 


58 : 


63 


1 ft 


: 73 


62 


r 1 


DO ' 


77 


74 


73 


82 ; 


81 


58 • 


66 


54 




: 72 : 


58 


r U : 


ol 


76 


• 73 


72 


84 


82 


• 57 


' 65 


64 




: 1931 


1932 


lyoi 




1931 


1932 


, XVO J. 




1 ZIO X. 


1 OTP 


X C70X 


• X rro<o 


t) an • 1 


: 71 


58 




51 


: 75 


: 74 


■ 72 


83 


81 " 


56 


: 65 


■ 55 


o 


: 71 


59 


69 


52 


: 75 


74 


72 


86 


78 


57 


: 66 • 


54 


15 


: 73 


: 61 


71 : 


53 


: 78 


77 


73 


: 86 


79 


56 


: 65 


64 


22 


: 72 


63 


69 


54 


77 


: 79 


73 


90 


: 80 


: 58 


66 




29 


: 71 




69 




. 76 




: 72 




76 




: 66 . 




Feb. 5 


: 71 




69 




75 




: 72 




: 78 




: 66 





a/ Weekly average of daily cash quotations basis IJo. 1 sacked 30 days delivery, 
Table 3.- Wheat: Closing prices of Ma;y' futures 



Date : 


Chicago j 


Kansas City" 


I/'iinneapolis 


Winnipeg a/ 


Liverpool a. 


''Buenos Aires 

U 






1930 : 


1931 • 


1930 


1931 


1930 


1931 


1930 


J-.S31_ 


1930 : 


1931 


1930 :1931 






Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


C en t s ; 


Cents 


: Cents 


Cents" 


Cents 


Cents: 


Cents 


Cents : Cents 


Oct. 


10: 


84 


54 


. 77 


47 : 


80 


: 61 


: 78 : 


53 


87: 


60 


c/ 


73:d/44 




17: 


84 


55 


77 


: 48 


: 79 


61 


78 


53 


83: 


61 


c/ 


70:d/45 




24: 


84 


51 < 


78 ; 


53 


' 79 


55 ; 


78 ; 


53 : 


84: 


63 




68:d/45 




31: 


83 


• 55 : 


75 


: 58 


: 78 


72 


76 


63 


85: 


69 




71:d/50 


Nov. 


7: 


80 


72 


: 74 


: 64 


76 • 


79 


74 ; 


57 


84: 


75 


:cy 


70:d/52 




14: 


74 


: 62 


59 


54 ; 


69 


69 


: 64 


59 : 


77: 


67 


c/ 


64:c/53 




21: 


81 


: 60 


74 < 


55 


76 


1 70 


. 70 


50 


79: 


67 


e/ 


52:c/50 




28: 


79 


: 56 


72 


: 49 . 


74 


• 65 


: 64 


5-i ; 


78: 


58 


e/ 


54:c/44 


Dec, 


5: 


81 


: 59 


74 


: 52 : 


75 


: 68 ' 


64 


: 55 


77: 


59 


•e/ 


63:c/44 




12: 


81 


: 55 


73 


: 49 


: 75 


: 65 


59 


52 


; 72: 


58 


e/ 


58:c/43 




19: 


81 


: 57 


: 73 


49 


75 


: 57 


: 56 • 


50 


67: 


58 




55:c/43 




26: 


81 


: 56 


: 73 


: 49 


: 76 


65 


: 55 


51 


fj 52: 


58 




48:c/43 




31: 


81 


57 


: 73 


: 50 


76 


; 68 . 


54 


53 . 


62: 


58 


e/ 


49:c/43 






1931 


:1932 


:1931 


1932 


1931 


1932 


1931 


•1932 ■ 


1931 : 


1932 


:1931 :1932 


Jan. 


9: 


S3 


57 


74 


: 49 ; 


77 


: 68 


: 56 


53 


63: 


57 


ej 


50:e/44 




16: 


82 


59 


74 


51 


77 


• 69 


55 : 


54 


52: 


55 ' 


oj 


48:e/42 
47:e/42 




23: 


82 


58 


: 74 


: 50 - 


77 


68 


57 


53 : 


61: 


55 


e/ 




30: 


82 




: 73 




76 




58 




61: 




e/ 47: 


Jeb. 


6: 


82 . 




: 73 




77 




62 : 




63: 




e/ 


47: 



a/^onversions October, 1931 to date o.t noon buying rate 
of day previous to other prices. c_/Febniary futures. d/D 
futures, f/ Decenber 29 price. 



01 exchange, 
ec ember futu 



b/Prices are 
res, e/MajTch 



VVH-69 



•C5- 



the. average -of the last five years. Tr.e r&latively Igjrge 
year accounts for the increase in production of -leed 



The_Wb.rld Whea t Situa tion in ^elMjm_tg_o:tnev_^Xns 'and Potatoes; 

The outstai^ding points in the feed grain situation, for 1930-31 are;: 
The total world crop of the three major feed grains was somewnat larger m 
1931 than for 193D, out consrderatly smaller than the average of the las:t 
five years/ The 1931 crop of lioth Parley -aiid oats '^as-_^s^.an;er Jonai^^ 
and smaller than 
crop of com this 
grains. 

• For Euro-oe 'the IS'Sl oraductioh of feed grains was about aver-age arid only 
sli-htly larger tlian the crop of 1930. In North America the crops ox oats sna 
har!ey were smaller in 1931 than in 1930. ^ The corn crop of 1931, :nowever was 
considerably larger tha.: that of the previous year and on a ^tonnage basxs the 
total^ production of the three feed '■grains ^was larger than triat of 1^30. btoc..s 
of oats and- barley in the United States on July 1 were about average, but above 
tnose of a year earlier. Corn stodcs on November 1 were considerably aoove 
those of a^year earlier. Stocks of barley and oats m Canada on ''^^^^ 
larger than those of a 'year before. Heavy exports have ^^^^^^^'i, ^ °f ^ . 

feed grains in Canada so tnat on Januarj^ 1, 1952 supplies were bolow those of 
a year before. 

■ Although the situation 'in Eu_fope as^regai^ds tnese three principal . feed 
graihc. appears to be about average^ the short crop of:r5^e and only average ■ 
supplies of potatoes has caused a shortage of animal feeds _in certain 
European countries. Tae rye situation in these countries ^^^^^.'^t;^ 
unfavorable this year as production is 124 million f ^^^^ ' ^!^°" "^^^.J^.f ^ 
153 million bushels below last ye.ar's production. Hye is us.d P™^Pf 
as a bread: grain, but the poor quality of this year s ^-°P f ^^^^^^^f^t". 
a relatively large percentage of the crop being-^used as feed ^^^/^.^f 
- The decrease in ryo supplies may be offset by the suostitution ox. wneat- and 
may lead to increased imoorts of wheat. Prices: of rye in many oi tne 
ContinSntal European co-oi.tries have been relatively higher ^^f^J^lf'J^^^' 
■ ■ - " :cL encourage a greater con- 



tending to discourage the consuiTiption of rye an 
sumption of wheat 



TO- 69 



-9- 



Tatle 4.- Rye: Prod^Jiction in specified countries, 1927-28 to 1.930-31 





Harvest yer.r 


Country 










1331-32 


1927-28 


1928-29 


1929-30 


1930-31 




> J- j UU<J 


. a- , 


X , Uvw 


1 nnn 

• X , UUvJ 


1 000 

» X , U J u 






Dusnexs 


U iXbllOX 0 


U J.bIiU X b 


. UU.oIlt.X b 


United Strtes ... 


Oo , 1 O-i 


'^±0 , OD 0 ! 


O'i , JtJ\J 


AR Q 


'Zp 7/1 p, 
0<o , I -O 


Canada 




X 'x , D X 0 


i-O , X ou 


pp m R 

■ CjCj , U X o 


• f-, ^pp 

» , 0*0*0 


Total 


I O , r OO 


c;'7 GO /I . 


AR Tin 

t:0 , X XU 


. 0 ( , oy f 


7R HAR 
00 , U D 0 


No rway 


DUD 




000 


00 D 


R'^R 
000 


Sweden 




XO , SOt: 


XO , oU J 


X 0 , uu 0 


1 p pnA 


Denmark 


XU ) OD^ 


y , boo 


XU , ftXX 


^o n R 

XU , 0 


. 0 , D OX 


iTetherloxids 


1 ARK 
XO , 'x oo 


. J- ' > 000 


. -'- 0 , ouu 


n A R9P 




BolV^iuin 


<&x } o J*± 


P's 1 i^A 

lOO , XOt: 


p? 1 (^p 

00 , XOO 


X 0 1 U *^ 


PI 


Luxemburg; 


'7K,A 


OOiC , 


AT A 

'xX D 




306 


TroJice 


OO J c?oo 


■^A ri7 Q • 
O^I , U ' y I 


OD , TrOO 




31 013 

OX y W X O 


Spain ; 


CO y OXO 


X D , 0 „ 0 




21 543 


18 512 


Italy 


o y cvo r 


D , 000 


n an q 


0 1 P7 


6 1 "5 

» LJ J X V 0 


Switzerlrxd 


1 823 


1 96? 


1 862 


1 ,484 


1 ,429 


Germany : 








302 31 2 


262 977 


Austria 




1 Q Qpn 


pn 0 97 


20 63^ 


; 18,322 


Czechoslovakia. . . : 






7? 1 P5 


70 373 


50,498 


Hungary : 




■^P RP7 




pp 406 


21 , 575 


Yugoslavia 




» 7 RP7 * 


8 P68 


7 825 


7', 614 


Greece 


X , >_ uo 


X , / OX ; 


1 "^AR 

X , '^rtO 


X 9 owu 


1 815 


Bulgaria : 


5 , 951 


8,067 


: 7,337 : 


12,520 


12,072 


Rumania 


9,323 


11,483 


13,2'65 : 


18,288 


: 15,747 


Poland " 


231,762 : 


240 , 545 : 


275,959 


273 , 923 


: 222,826 


Lithuania 


21,183 


18,752 : 


22 , 0'60 


25,177 


: 16,121 


Latvia ; 


10,138 


6,459 


9,503 


14,377 


: 6 , 456 


Estonia 


5 , 735 


: 5,537 


5,736 


: 8 , 384 


: 5,657 


Pinlaiid 


12,892 


: 10,999 


I0j_443 


14,104 


11,792 


Total 


308,029 


: 900,311 


, 934 , 842 


919,786 


; 756,590 


Ar(;5entina 


: 6,614 


: 8,976 


: 4,401 


: 4,724 


9,055 



Compiled from official reports received to JoJiuary 23, 1932. 



m-69 



-10- 



Table 5.- Potr.toes: Production in specified countries, 1927-1-931 



Country : 1927 : 192:8 : 192:9 : 1930: : 1931 

.. I : : _j; : P rel. 

: ■ 1,000 : 1,000' : ' 1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000 

• bushels : bushe ls : bushels : bushels : bushel s 

United States ■ 402,741 : ■ 465,350 : 329,134 : ■ 335,210 : 376,248 

Canada ...: 77,430 ; 83 ,658 : 66,'550 80,4 02 ; -8 7,175 

To tal : 480,171 ; 5 49,008 ; 5'95T6""84~"^ '^37612 ; ' ' 4-65^23 

Engla,nd and Wales: 114,053 : 131,1521 ~l'33',^~^ i02',405 ': ' 89,861 

Scotland : 29,829 : 38, '528 : 43,120 ': ' 32,107 : '26,133 

Northern Ireland : 39,462 : 43,088 : 41 ,,955 : 31,:974 : ' ' 

Irish Free State : 91, .212 : ' 83,863 : 112,'249 : 87,265 :' ' 

Norway 22,589.: 34,'933 : 33,.070 : 28,144 : 30,344 

Sweden 35,:832 : 62,746 : , 69,277 : 65,112 ' 51,440 

Denmarh : 20,746 : 43,056 : 39,388 : 35,170 :' 33,069 

Netherlands ■: , 92, .783 : 137,584 : ' 150,526 : 111,691 :' 94,496 

Belgium : 121,590 : 133,531 : 143,593 : 108,848 :' 101,580 

Luxeraburg : 5,233 : 6,237 : 3,804 : 5,876': 7,937 

Frpjice : 643, .997 : 413,875 : 597,l'i4 : 493,426 : ' ' 592,192 

Spain : 132,646 : 139,892 : 169,853 : 154,;438 : 124,162 

Portugal . : 11,427 : , 9,627 :' 12,669 : 20,.756 : 11,023 

Italy : 71,477 : 54,742 : ■73,771 71,794':' 55,262 

Switzerland 25,537 : 24,710 :' 30,497 : 21,679': 28,164 

Austria : 97 , 973 : 91,429 : 102,^993 : 97,483 : '86,865 

Germany : 1,379,716 :, 1,516, 373 : 1,472,568 : 1,730,596 : 1,611,797 

Czechoslova].^ia ..: 370,157 : 326,019 : 392,996 : 328,867 : 315,062 

Hungary : 73,666/:' 54,.03l : 79,570 : 67,661 ': 54,074 

Yugoslavia .,....: 37,063 : 31,312 :' 59,696 : 54,031 : ' 

Greece ....:: 1,219 : 1,215 : 1,285 : 1,740 : 

Malta : 1,051 : 1,048 :' 1,089 : 1,074 : 1,117 

Bulgaria : 1,388 : .775 : 1,621 : 3,085 : ' 2,865 

Rumania : 78,949 : 75,404 : 91,261 : ' 71,941 :a/ 87,302 

Poland : 933,655 : '1,016,339 : 1,156,592 : 1,135,455 : 1,208,113 

Lithuaaiia : 46,444 : 35,263 : 58,032 : 69,404 : 77,161 

Latvia : 26,358 : 11,539 : 39,674 : 40,568 : 40,410 

Estonia : 27,253 : 18,412 : 27,669 : 31,714 : 23,999 

Finland ; 27,852 : 25_,313 j 2_8^»S5;8_:_ 28, 856_: 2 5,621 

Total 25 Euro- : : ~ : : : 

pean countries: : : : •' 

reporting : : : : : 

1927-1931 : 4,-142,201 ; 4,40 2,589 : 4,978,757 : 4,850,151 : 'i,78o050 ^ 

Estimated Euro-: : : : : 

pean total : : : : : 

excl. Russia..: 4,611,000 : 4,562,000 : 5,194,000 : 5,025,000 : 

EstiiTiated world: : : : : 

total excl. : : : : : 

Rus sia & China: - 5,257, 000 ; 5,270,000 : 5,753.000 : 5,605_^00_: 

a/ Does not include potatoes grown with other crops which in 1930 amomited to 
5 million bushels. 



WK-59 



-11- 



The Wne at Situation in Ar^^entina a/ 

Crop conditions 



The wheat harvest in Arf^entina, for the 1331-32 crop, has U.een completed 
in the northern part of the cereal zone, is nearing completion in the central 
zone, and is ^.ettin^ veil under wry in the south. 

Gonditiona up to Noveraber 8 were, on the whole, considered very favor- 
able to the v.'hc'.t crop except for some areas in the territory of La Pajnpa, 
v/here more rainfall would have been beneficial. Cai ITovember 3 and 9, frosts 
occurred in the western and so'.itr:if/estern parts of the province of Buenos Aires 
end in irrach of the territory of La Pampa. Dama,_.;Q from these frosts was probably 
not as great as was first estimated, due to the fact that some localities had 
rain immediately following the frost. Until threnhin^" is completed, however, 
it will be impossible to say how inuch dar.iage was occasioned by these frosts, 

E:cco})t ior t'.ie fro<;t da"nain,'e in soae localities the wheat crop suffered 
but little from any otner factors until alraost harvest time. Rust, while re- 
ported in a few localities, was in no Vi/ay a serious menace thi^. season and 
the locusts which appeared in many sections of the provinces of Santa Fe' .a:id 
Cordob.a did little, if any, damage to the wlxoat. Hains in parts of Santa Fe 
and Cordoba just an harvc^st was to couiinence rnd also occurrin^; at tiiaes during 
the harvest period, doubtless reduced yields to a smo.ll degree but prooably 
had more afiect upon q.uality txian upon ^lua;itit,y 

Q,uality of 1951-32 wheat c rop 

Indications from early threshing returns point to a wheat crop of good 
quality. Generally, the wheat threshed to date has had a very high specific 
weight. In some portions of the province of Santa Fo' where coiabined harvedter- 
threshers were used it was officially reported (December 17) that due to haste 
in threshing in view of uiisottled weather soine dai^p -md unripe wheat was obtained. 
Reports from early threshings in the province of Cordoba indicate the wheat to 
be of good quality. Hot enough threshing has been done in the Soutn to obtain 
a good idea as to the qualit;;'' of wheat in that sectiorx. 

Crop estimates, surplus, etc. 

The first official estimate of the 193].-32 wheat crop, issued by the 
Argentine Ministry of Agriculture on December 4, 1931, w;\s 218,623,000 bushels. 
Some privr.te estimates run a little higner, - 220,000,000 bushels or possibly 
slightly more. 

With an official estim;'.te of a crrry-over of 15,472,000 bushels of old 
wheat on Jairaary 1, 1931 added to the official estimate of the 1930-31 crorj of 
235,960,000 bushels, the total sup-'ily for tne calendar yerr 1931 amo^uited to 
251,432,000 busncls. Deducting 93,000,000 bushels for sec-d and loccl con- 
suiTiption rnd ap'oroximate ly 130,0^0,000 bushels shipped to Decei.iber 1, 1931, 
the carry-over at txiat time was around 23,0j0,0u0 bushels. Totrl shipments of 
wheat for December, 1931 were cbcut 7,000,0w0 oushels, according to trade 

2./ Based on report of A^^.-ricul tural Commissioner G-. S. Ha';, Buenos Aires, 
Argentiiia, December 24, 1931. 



WH-69 



^12- 



reports, iGr.ving o. surplus of 21 laillioii bushels on Joiiuary 1, 1932* 

If the present crop turns out at around 220 million bushels ,md 92 
million bushels be deducted for seed and local consumption, the exportable 
surplus from this crop would be aro^and 128 million bushels. This surplus, 
with the carry-over from 1931 of about 20 million oushels points to nearly 
150 million bushels of wheat for export ond carry-over durin^j the corain;^ year. 
Exports for 1931 ond carry-over at the end of the yuar totaled about 158 
million bushels. 

Ordinarily, very little new-crop wheat is exported before Jpjiuary 1, 
but this year some 2,200,000 to 2,570,0j0 bushels wore shipped to December 
24. The exact c;Tiount of new-crop v/heat so far exported is very difficult to 
determine because some of it is being mixed with old, poor-quality wheat. 
This movement of new-crop wheat is in part responsible for a rather sudden 
advance in the freight market for December steamers. 

Prices and price tendencies 

Daily wheat prices reported by the Suenos Aires grain futures market dur- 
ing December have ranged from 4O4 - 42-7/8 cents per bushel with prices below 
42-7/8 cents on all but two days. Prices rose from 39-| cents on October 1 to 
51-f cents on ITovember 2, since which date there has been an almiost steady decline 
until on Deceraber 17 the price reported wo.s 4O4 cents. A subsequent advance 
brought futures to 42-7/8 cents on December 31. 

Australia 

Tlie v/heat crop is officia.lly estimated at 170,966,000 bushels according to 
the latest report of Agricultural Commissioner Paxton at Sydney, compared with 
212,629,000 bushels in 1930-31. 

Tlie current hoJ'vest has been delayed by rains during December in iTew 
South 'iYoles end Victoria '/rtiere nearly half ^f the crop is grown. As a result 
the quality in thos^ States has suffered considerably, .llie basis for ? A Q, 
v/heat for South Australia has been established at 51 pounds raid one-ha,lf ounce. 
Recent weather is reported to have been favorable. 

Tlie 1931-32 crop estimate includes 51,600,000 bushels in ITew Sotith Wales 
compared with 65,811,000 last year, 35,000,000 in Victoria compared with 
53,814,000 Ic.st year, 'i4, 500,000 in Soutn Australia compared with 54,872,000 
last year, 35,866,000 in Western Au;-.tralia compared with 52,891,000 last year; 
and a rougli estimate of 4,000,000 f^.r ether parts of Australia, comp^j-cd with 
5,240,000 last year. 

Tlie Danube Basin Wn eat Sit uati o n Duri ng D ecer.b er 1951 a/ 

Available information ir.dicates that the acreage seeded to winter wheat 
during the fall of 1931 in the Donube Basin was approximately equal to the 
19,753,000 acres harvested in 1951. 

Exports from Rumania continue relatively heavy, the total Rumonirai exports 
to December 31, 1931 being estimated at 32,800,000 "bushels. The continued 



-13- 

lien,vy movement of Rurnrnian v/her.t hr.s TDeen .?ji''ected to a very great extent "by 
low com prices. 

Tiie wliert-corn price rc.tio hr-.d been favorable for com consumption as 
v/heat prices liave beon supported by G-overnncnt intervention, and com prices 
hove been lov/, as r result of relatively large crops except in Hungary. Small 
foxmers in c^-ontrics v;liere ■.."lier.t ore /.d is often replaced by corn caices have 
consum^ed far more corn than tney v/ould under n.^rmal conditions, rnd increased 
q.u.-ntitics of wheat have been released for export, 

Jinrncial difficulties in .all of the Danube Basin countries ha.ve tended 
to force exiDorto to a ma:?:imu.m ojid to reduce iv.iports. As a consequence, '.vhcat 
exDorts have been increased above normal for co^ontries where the 1931 produc- 
tion of both •wheat cxid corn v/o.s good. In Hungary, however, an unsatisfactory 
corn crop has resulted in extensive feeding of v/neat to livestock, rnd com 
imports have been reduced to unimportant quantities, as o. result of the 
National baiil: prohibiting the use of foreign n.oney for purchasing corn. 

In &u;agary the exportable surplus for the current season appe.ars to be 
som.ewhat less thcii the estimate made earlier in the seo.son. The falling off 
of Hu:igarion exports ho.s been to p. very large degree the result of discontinuing 
po-yments of export premiui^is and the increased consumption of v;heo.t as feed 
for livestock, 

Exports fr^m the Drnube Basin during Cecem.ber were sm.all a.s a res'ult of 
the njrmvcJ. seasonal decline, the lo;/ prices of v;heat on v/orld m^arkets, the 
closir^' of navigation on the jDonube and Blo-ck Sea, and restrictive r,;e,asures 
tho.t ha,ve been in effect in ir.porting countries. 

Tlic h.'-tional banlis of European countries have developed clearing agree- 
ments which have for their purpose the facilitating of exports. 

There ho.ve been no new developm.ents in Government aid in individual coun- 
tries. There has been ci renewed o.ttem.pt, however, to obtain relief by merjis 
of inteniational cooperation. E:.e countries of southeastern Europe recently 
concluded a conference e,t Sofia, Bulgario., in which cooperation between the 
surplus producing countries of that territory was discussed. 

Mo.rkets 

'.Tkeat v-iarkotin^ activities in the Danube Basin from the middle of Hovem.ber 
to tl:e middle of December have h-.d the usual seo.sonal decline. The volumic of 
"marketir.,3 has been further decre^ised by curtailed export dema.nd, ond decreased 
hor.e consur.T.ption as a result of the general economic depression. 

The Bult-,o.rirji VJhert Monopoly established in the middle of October places 
the wheat trade of t'i.e co-'juitry ui'.der com.plete G-overnr;ient control. The G-ovorn- 
ment Bureau is now the only :^g-ency that con sell v/he,at for home consua.iption. 
The Govcnrment ' s soles for export continue to be made to exporters through the 

» ^ 

a/ Based on report of Assistojit Agricultural Coiimissioner J. Bemoxd G-ibbs, 
Belgrade, Yu.^oslo.via, Deceinber 21, 1931. 



WH-69 



^14- 



medium of local markets. 

The activity on Hungarian wheat markets tended to decline between ITovem- 
ber 15 to December 15, as a result of the fulfilling of ex-port contra.cts 
that were made during October and the first part of ICovember. Curtailed 
deliveries to me.rkets near the end of i\rovember resulted in higher prices, and 
a part of tne f^trmers who were holding their wheat for higher prices placed 
it on the ras.rket. However, the q.uantities delivered were not large aiid the 
wheat Was readily bought by mills. A majority of the farmers who were holding 
their wheat for higher prices have not sold, as t'hey expect better prices when 
the C?,echoslovalcian-HungariaxL commercial treaty is closed. 

'I'Theat markets in Rumania were relatively quiet from ITovember 15 to 
December 15. forced exports during the preceding months resulted in increased 
prices which tended to maintain arrivals at markets, but the volume of 
transactions was far below that for previo\is months. Home cons-junption has 
been reduced, as a result of the general economic depression, aiid a part of 
the past weeks arrivals at internal markets has been sent to sea- ports, where 
it has been stored, as exjoorters v;ould not buy at the increased prices. 

This situation is reflected in the following table, which shows an 
increase in registered arrivals at Brsila after ITovcmber 1, and a decrease in 
registered sales to exporters, as well as in the next table, which shows 
decreased prices after December 6, as a result of increased arrivals at ports 
£xnd reduced demands for export. 

Table 5.- '-vheat: Registered arrivals at Braila port and sales to exporters, 
semi-:nonthly , September to December 15, 1931 



Two weeks ending • Registered arrivals • Registered sales 



; Bushels : Buske ls 

Sept. 15 : 162,000 .: 57,000 

30 : 151,000 : 22,000 

Oct. 15 : 59,000 : 145,000 

31 : 37,000 : 150,000 

Uov. 15 : 59,000 : 108,000 

30 : 80,000 : 29,000 

Dec. 15 : 18,000 : 0 



Compiled as follows: Arrivals: September from "Argus", a Bucharest economic 
journal, o.nd beginning from October 1, from, daily official bulletins of the 
Braila G-rain Exchange. Soles: from "D^jiube Market end Shipping Report", a 
daily publication issued in G-alatz. 

The Yugosl,?virJi Privileged Export Company has discontinued its policy 
of accepting all flurntities of wheat from farmers, merchaiits, caid cooperatives. 
It permits them to sell directly to internal mulls at a ;orice equal to the 
Comrjcny's purchase price to farmers plus a 2 cents per bushel hraidling charge, 
and requires the m?.lls to p-^y the Company the difference between this price 
end the Compcuy's scheduled price to mills. The quoaitity of wheat hold by 
the Compcny prior to the adoption of f.^is policy was in excess of the' export- 
able surplus rnd the Com.oony v/ill continue to sell some wheat to mills. However, 
the bulk of the Com.prny ' s sales will be for export. 



-15- 



Price s 

The trend of prices on different markets in the Dcuiube Ba.sin daring the 
past four weeks wr.s ver;;,^ irregular. Bulsarirai ?nd Hura-nicai prices tended 
to follow v;orld narkets, Hrai^arini prices vrcre influenced by decreased supplies 
?.t nome end showed little relrtir,n with v/^^rld tendencies, v/hereas Yugoslavian 
wheat continued to sell at the Government's fixed price. 

In Bulg-ria, the G-over::uaent Bureau is now purchasing v/heat from fo.ruers 
at 67 cents per bushel a/ from which 70 per cent is paid in cash ejid 30 per 
cent in taxation bonds. 3-overnment ' s sales to exporters were made ct constcjit- 
ly decreasing prices from November 15 to December 2. From that date to the 
middle of December, prices re^-ioined on the sojne level. The Governi.ient bureau 
sells wheat to malls for hom.e consuiaption at 78 cents per bushel, 

a/ Price for 5t.8 pounds per bushel wheat, '.;ith no rye and. no foreign matter. 
For each additional kilogrr-;T. of hectoliter weight above 76, an adequate price 
incre-ase is m.ade ,-nd for additional foreign matter and rye, price deductions 
c.ve made. 



Table 7.- V.'heat: Price per bushel of comparable gro.des on principal 

Danube Basin markets, monthly, September and October, v/eekly, 
llovem.ber and first half of December 1931 a/ 



Period 


Bulgaria b/ 
prices at Bourgas 


Hungo.ry , pr i c e s 
:at Budapest c/ 


F:amani a , pr i c e s 
at Braila d/ 


Yugoslavia e/ 
prices at l!.Sa( 


'ifoek ended 

14 

21 

28 

1^0 V. averi'^e . . 

12 


Cents 


• Cents : 


Gents 


Cents 


55 : 
57 

u 

■LI 
f/ 
I! 

If 


: 45 

47 : 

55 
55 
60 
57 
65 

: 65 ; 


44 
45 

Kl ' 

h/ 51 
hy' 50 
: h/ 50 


: 84 
84 

84 
85 
84 
83 
84 
84 

: 84 


Compiled as follows: Bourgas prices from daily "market bulletii 


IS issued by 



Boui'gas B:>urse. B'adopest prices frcm "Pester Lloyd", a Budapest Econcmdc 
Journal; Braila prices from "Argus", a Bucharest Economics Journol; I'ovi-So.d 
prices from. "Trgovinslci Glo.snik" , a Belgrade ComumercicJ Journal, 
a/ Simple averages cf daily prices for comiparable ^.T-des in locrl currency end 
converted to U.S. Dolla.rs by using exchaaige rates on Zurich Exchange, vaotations 
of Hungarian Pengo on the Zurich Exchange eased oia l\ovem>ber 21. Fromi Hovem.ber 
21 the average November gold pengo exchange rate hr,s been used for conveiting 
Budapest wheat prices into dollars. Budapest wheat prices are quoted in ^'^Id 
pengo since August 1, 

b/ Best grade 61.4 pounds per bushel, 2 per cent foreign matter, 
c/ Lower Tisza 51.4-62.2 pounds per bushel, no foreign m.atter. In addition to 
the above i.;arket price the purchaser has to pay 48 cents per bushel representing 
tne vp,lue of the grain ticket, from which the fanr.er receives 29 cents. For 
wheat which is exported the 48 cents grain ticket expense is refunded by the 
Goven-unent. Continued - 



Ti'/H-69 



-15- 



Notes continued 



d/ Best grade, 61.4-52.2 pounds per bushel, 2 per cent foreign matter, the 
price includes 15 cents per bushel export preiaium. 

e/ Tisza 61.4 - 52.2 poa_nds per h-.snel, 2 per cent foreign matter until July 
5. From Jul3^ 6 forward Government Monopoly purchase price Tisza 62 po\;jids 
per bushel, 1 per cent foreign matter. 

On>:-nali of the price is paid in cash, one-fourth in G-overnment bonds 
payable one month after the purchase is made and one-fourth in bonds pa^^able 
three m.onths after the parchasing. 

f/ No transactions in 61.4 pounds per bushel wheat with 2 per cent foreign 
matter. Prices for 60.5 pounds per bushel wheat with 2 per cent foreign 
matter were: wedc ending October 31: 43 cents; llovember 7: 52 cents; .^Jovemoer 
14- 54 cents; November 21: 51 cents; November 28: 47 cents; ilovember average: 
51 cents; December 5: 41 cents; December 12: 41 cents. Prices from October 
19, when the Government Monopoly came into force refer only to scles made by 
the Government Bureau to exporters for immediate export, 
g/ No quotations for 61.4 Dounds per bushel. Prices for bO.5 pounds per 
bushel wheat during the week ended October 31 were: 44 cents; hovemoer r: -^8 
cents; November 14: 48 cents. 

V Refers to grade 51.8 pounds per bushel, 3 per cent loreign master as tner. 
were no registered transactions in wheat of 51.4 pounds per Dushel, 2 per cent 
foreign matter. The average for November- covers thus only the last two weeks 

of this month. . r- ^ .-r. r ^^^^.^a„ 

1/ No quotations for 61.4 pounds per bushel wheat. Tlie price for f'^^ ^ov^^^ 
per bushel wheat during the week ending December 5 was- 50 cents; darin^ the 
■week ending' December 12: the average ^as 49 cents. 

In Hungary, wheat prices increased materially from the: middle of Novem- 
ber to the middle of December, as a result: of light deliveries. r.ost_oi 
the remaining wheat stocks are being held in expectation oi nigner prices. 

Tneat prices in Rumania fluctuated continuously during- the past few^ 
weeks. Prices at Braila followed the tend'ency of the United S.a.es mar..ets 
we.iib. rxj.^ ^ . . . nrin^ of December wnicn was soon 

as tnere was a m^.terial increase at the oeg..nnin^ oi i^e^c ^ v-i ,-.spr 

followed by a decline. The present price level in R-oma^iia is much ni^ner 
thLn September and October prices. R^-aaiiar- wheat is stxll c.ieaper - .^^^at 
in any of the other Danube countries, but its present price 
to ?^nder exports u^aprofi table, a/ The quality of ,the remaxning wneat t^^ 
in Ruanania is low, end shipments abroad are sola primarily lor feudi.s li^estoCK. 

In Yugoslavia, the Privileged Export Compaaiy still main taa^ns the high 
Government price, and pays one-half of .the price m ^^^^^^^^^^f ^ / to 
in Government bonds. One-half of the aa^^ount paid m bonds ^^.^^^f 
cash within one month after the date of mrchase, and the ^^^t of t e 
three months from the date of parcnase. The present sales P^°^f ^ ^ 
Gompaaiy mai.es it possible for the Government to reduce tne bonds as ti.^y 
become due. 

I/'El^^^Ti^'i^^^^^^^^ neighboring 
G z echo si 0 valci a. 



1 



-17- 



■V inter v/he^.t s£edin :n:s for _th e 1952 _cr OjJ 

iinti.r -..iicat seediiii;^^ liava "bjor. co:apl3ted in dl L'a?rabc 3c.si:-. countrios 
and, it no.? r .)pec.rs tliat tnere will be no importojit I'eductions in the area of 
v/inter v/hor.t sov/n for- nr.rvcst in 1932. 'Iliis is especially true in countries 
Y/iiere frzi-iers h<?d rn opportunity to maiicet tlieir wheat at favorable prices* 

In j5uli-,-.ria fr.rners obtained relrtively ni^n prices from the G-overn- 
ment G-rain Parcnasi..^' Bureau. T'Jic laws and reg^ai-"'tions under v/hich the 
Bureau no';V oper-.tcs '^vill not be effective after July 1, 1932, but frrmcrs 
apparently believe that relief measures will be continued, jjnd .lave therefore 
not reduced their winter 3eodir:\;3. 

The ccndition c^f the Bulgarian crop is report-jd as satisfactory. 

In Hun;-::ary the v/inter wheat acreage does not usually ciiczi'X^ from one 
year to c^-ioth^r. ihanners neld their wneat tnis year -until prices increased, 
and D. lar^^ part of their surplus was lar.rKieted at relatively sr.tisf ^,ctory 
prices a/ in October, lloveiriber, cjid December. Therefore, th.ey have not re- 
duced their v/iriter wheat seedini^s this fall, in spite of cai official announce- 
mey.t to the effect tl'-at tlio grain ticket systeiTi \/ill be abclislied on July 1, 
1952. 

wher.t s jwn early in the se-'.son has steeled well and has developed 
satisfactorily. Late seedings nave been so'inevrh.at delryed in their development 
as a result of dry woather. Insect daiae^s have been of i.hnor inportaace, 

■.Tinter wheat seedin^^s in Ruinoiiia up to >Tovei:foer 7, totaled 4,295,000 
acres, as coupared ■.vith 4,791,000 acres sown to the sane date in 1950. Accord- 
ing to th.e Ruip.-^.niori Ministry of Agricalturc, ruif rworeble v/eather conditions 
and late ho,rveotinj^ of corn b/ were la.rt^ely responsible for lower seedin^s. 
Acreage reduction o-s a result of lov/ prices for this year's crop v/as not 
no ticeo.ble e::cept in Eesoo.rabia. The Huj^'.ani o.n "iinistry of A:i;^i'-'"hture has 
continued to ur^e fo.rr.ers to plant nore wheat. 

All available information indicrtes that winter ^7heat seedin^s in 
Yui^oslavia will not vo.r;' i.-.o.terially from tnis year's harvested acrec^-e. However, 
there ore no definite esti.-nates available -^nd there is considerable uncertainty 
regarding the influence of the relatively high G-overnment price that is being 
maintained during the current season. Tlie authorization permitting the high 
G-overnme;it price expires at the end of the current marketing yeo.r, and farmers 
c.TQ not assured of G-overnrient aid for the m.arketing of their 1932 crop. Tliis 
would tend to rirevent increase in acreage, and as Yugoslavian farmers are 
in the ho.bit of sov/ing about the same whea.t acreage yeex after year it is 
believed tho.t the acreage sown this year will not vary v.;ateriall„' from tiie 1931 
harvested acrea-^e. 



a/ 57 to 62 cents plus 29 cents from the ^ro.in ticket, i.e. iG to 91 cents 
per bushel for lirst class Tisza wheat. 

b/ riost 2.uj:ux-.io,' s wheat area is planted in corn-stubble. 



WK-S9 



-18- 



Dsveloprr.eiits i:i Goveriimen t rid 

Contin-aed dii'iiculfcies iix c :r/.iecticn v/itl:. 
ogricultvaTl products hos resulted in a renev/ed attempt in establishing co- 
operative effort bet^/een the agricultural countries of eastern ond^ southeastern 
Europe. Agriculturra representatives irora the co^uiitries of Buli^cxiix, 
Czechoslovaicia, Esthonia, nr.:::.^-xy, Polaz^d, ivur-.ania, end Yut^oslsvia net in 
conference at Sofia, 3ul-,aria frov.i Deccber 10 to 13. 

Tlvo conference opened v;ith a discussion -f the degree of cooperr.tion 
that has existed betT/een tne cou^itries since -the ;:ersrw conference, held m _ 
the fall of 1930, cx-d. of tne econ^nic problens of inaividaal countries tnat nrve 
prevented the dcvelopiient of the cooperative pro-ran recoi^uerided at that con- 
ference. Tlie conference discussed the absolute necessit:: of cooperation 
betv;een Suropean countries for the purpose cf in^provin^ the present ui^xavorcbxe 
econonic situation in the Suroporn asricultural countries of eastern ona 
southeastern Europe. 

^oe in-oortr^nce of establishing e-^ International jii;ricul tural Gredit_ 
Institution ;/a3 stressed, and .he estnblisnaent of preferential custon privileges 
by meons of co:u'£rci,oJL treaties v;as approved. 

Yorious -clief ^lans ^:/ere discussed, anong which was a proposed custuns 
union for the countries of southeastom Europe. The plan was proposed oy tne 
Ru^^ion hinister of Agriculture, but it was not included in the reco.;..endrticns 
of the conference. 

rm-.. c-.n-fe-eoce approvsd -11 tyues of cooperative efforts between ^, 
indiviooal c::untrics, but stressed- the inportance of considering the iniluence 
of such c.ouerrtion on tl.e other cou.:tries. It was reconnendea tnat ^oop.ra- 
tiDn between indivldaal countries worh towards the ui'dtea exiort of all t..e 
co"j.ntrie3, 

ITo definite intern-.tional cooperative plan was estrblished by the 
conference, but the proposals of the neeting , stoted that ^^^^i::^^^;^;^. 
. . 0.^3^^ conference in th. fall of 1S30 was tne oniy sux e ...e ns w..uco/ 

?he ;^rici;;.r.i countries of eastorn cu.d southeastern Europe could .ive 
effective relief to pgriculturai producers, a/ 

The only new developments in Governnent aid in individual j^J 
of the IDarmbe Basin have been in connection with the estcd)iisnnent o. cst^.s 
privileges through coDr^ercial treaties with inportin^ countries. 

The rrench-rtvi.-ri'u. Gonu.rcial Treaty supplement concluded on September 
35, iJ^wLr^u^mitted to the Erench Chamber of -Pities for ^^^^ 
about Decev^bur 10. It will become valid as soon as accuse... o 
are exch-iiged between the contracting co-ojitries. 



a/ The ^'^arsaw conference approved the establishing of intern 
agri cul turr 1 p ro cue t s . 



-tional )Ools of 



-19- 



Txio C-eri'.^r.n-Huii^r.riar. trec.ty has not oecA enforced becaase if opposition 
from certcin foreitai co^jaitries. The Gerr-.cai Goverranent now intends to under- 
taJce necessary steps at the Lent^e of Nations in, order that tne treaty nay 
become vrlid in Tebraary 1932 in spite r,f objections, 

Uei^otiations between Czechoslovakia and Hungar;;' still continue one. it 
is now thought that a satisfactory rv.,-;reenent 7/ill be re-chcd r-t an early date. 

Tne Ger.;irn-Rv.niani,?r- coiranercial treaty has been opposed end is in the 
sane position as the Gerr:.rjii-Hunt;ari?j:i treaty. It is hoped, however, tnat this 
treaty will also bccoi.^.e valid in Febrao.ry 1932. 

Thurc is no new inf jrriation available c jncernin^-,' the Gemrai-YugoslcO.v 
pref er-^ntiai treaty b-.it present diiiiculties in connection with the Gemc.n- 
Eunfaariori c::d Gcrnoji-Roj-icnian treaty indicr.tc thiat thie Yuj^oslav treat/ will 
not becov^c valid for sone tine. 

Details conccrnin-c th.e Bul^'arifn: Cereal I-.-onopoly are now available. 
The pirn in oporrtion is alnost identical with the Yugoslavian plon. 

Tne -Bult\:ari,-^:. Governi.Knt Grain Purchasi Bureau j:as the e:x:clusivc 
ri^dit of purchasinc^ v/heat frcv.i farners. It is the only source fron which nills 
of the couiitry era purchase v/hert, and is the only or^ar^ization fron which 
exporters ccn obtain wheat for delivery abrood. 

Tlie Bureru poys tnc farcers 57 cents per bushel for wh.e.at wei^^hint;;; 59 
pounds per bushel, vith no rye or otlier foreit^n natter, a/ Th-O Bureau pajy'S 
70 per cent of th.e purc'iase price in cash, oxid. 30 per cent in taxation bonds. 
Purchases are .-.ade throurh- the nedi'un of cocper.'^.tives .ai:d iierchaits who receive 
a coni'oission of 3 cents per b-ishel. The Bvireoju sells wheat directly to nills 
or cooper: tivcs for hone consuv^tion at 78 cents per bushel, wheat for export 
is either sent abroad by t'i^e Bureau itself, or sold by the Bureau to exporters 
for delivery abroad. Purcnases fron the Bureau by exporters for delivers^ 
abroad are nade on open narlcets, aiid exporters opero.te at their own risk. 

Tne H-u-.cnian Governnent continues to have difficulty in pnyin;^- export 
preniur.is. Iniomation available on Decenber 21, indicates that the Governnent 
had p?ad about $3,750,000 on export preniuns, or.d that preniuns poynents equal 
to about $1,620,000 were over due. 

The Yu^oslo.viaLi Privile^-od Export Conpany did not nake ony changes in its 
prograivi fron the middle of llovenber to the niddle of Decenber. 



a/ Deductions are nade for additionol per cents of foreign natter or r;;,'e ojid 
additions arc nade for each added kilogram in hectoliter weight. 



Til- 6 9 



Til + 4-,-,o4-T nn T-pr.prtl"" s-io'^m. some improve- 
StT,ti^-ticallY, tlie world v/liec.t si-taation iias r^c^i.ox^ t^.-u.v.i o 

n^ent E^io^eL tlcings of wheat during the 1S31-32 season to Deca;.fbor 1, 

Tsss'^v^e not ^.een as lar.e as those ox the corresponding perxod last season, 

;hen ;»t iiTinorts of wheat amounted to onlv 146,274,000 husnels. . Hussi.^ 

cio" h;iow ^hat of 1930, the low s^plies carried over in European cow ries, 

the\nodcrate .ort stocks on the Continent, ..nd tne low stoc:cs of ^^^^^ 

continental trade channels at the heginnin,- of the current f 

toward European supply of wheat helow that of last year In addition ..u.o^. 
^.s a ^.oor r'e crop this rear, which, in view of tne s..- 11 world crop o. r e 
Indicates thkt the conipetition of this grain with wheat is_ less x nan normal 
this -ear. However, Goverr.^iontal restrictions on imports n ve so_ ic.r proven 
a ver- efiective harrier and the" will undoubtedly play a laajor snar:3 in^^ 
regulltins European takings dviring "bhe couing year. Sonic modiiic.oion ox 
these harriers is prohahlo as tlio season procuresses. 

Continental net irajorts of wheat during the first five n;onths of the 
■oresent crop -^ear were quite low, a reflection of the effectiveness of ^overn- 
nental regulations which have heon set up to protect the doaostic proouc^rs froa 
A'lutted markets and low pricos during a season of normally nccv; .var.vetinoS. 
miero a real deficit exists, such reflations, however, may only postpone 
imports. 

T^-^Q is little hoT^e at "oresent for any fundamental change in the 
Governmental restricti ons\vhich protect iiie European producer and whicn nave- 
heen especially effective in keeping out imports during the season o. neavy 
dome s t i c marke t ing s . 

The carry-over of wheat from last year's crop s helow norm.:.l in 
-^racticnll- alTthe oontinental coujitries and in sane of the more imporoant 
Countries the crry-over was almost negligihle. Although f.:.rm marketings of 
w-'eat have "been fully normal, the trade has continually cor.iplamed o. snoru 
sup^Dlies. This indicates that supplies of grain in trade cnannols _ aiid m 
mills arc at a minimxi;u, as a result of the hrjid-to-mouth policy wnicn nas b^en 
carried on for some time. In addition, continental port stocas ..re mucn boio,; 
last yearns stocks, although present supplies are prohahly ahout normal. 

The short rye crop this year, not only in Europe hut in other coua^.tries, 
presents a serious siti^ation. The Berlin office estimate of the production of 
r-e in 19 continental coujitrics (Portug-al excepted) this yc~.r is 7a.,UJU,.JUU 
hushels, com-oared to 852,000,000 hushols produced lost year, and_olo,^00 JLJ 
hushels the average production for 1925-1929. The rye shortage is a^re-1 on. 
and larae -oroducers such as Germ,:..ny 3Jid Poland have already piu^cnasea 
siPuifiSaxit quantities froa l^ussi... Huaors of further purch sus .re ^numerous. 
V/ith rye scarce ..nd prices relatively high, there may he some suosuiou.ion of 

wheat or harley. 

I/' B^sod on ro*-^o"rTTf IsViTtlnt Agriculturrvl Commissioner Donald F. Christy, 
Bc-rlin, Gorm.any^, Decemher 23, 1931 supplemented hy cahlc January 7. 



'711-59 



-21- 



Tlia fc'cjd. grain situ<:,tion is also si£inif icant as tliu suppl;;,^ of fool grains 
in Continontal jlurop^an covjntrijs tiiis "oar is raucii "bolow noiraal, ?nd livestock 
n'OJ-foors \xp to this tir.io have sho'.vn a tondoncy to increaso, C-^rniany ' s potato 
crop of 1,512,077 hushols is dofi.nitol-; lov/ar than Gxpoctod a raonth a£;o, thus 
tending to r.:aicG the food (^T-ain shortaj,o moro serious. 

Continental crop estirr-tos 

Eerl in 

The estimate of the/ office for tlie Continental European v.'hoat crop for 
1^-31 "based on official ?jad oth^r dat;. is placed at 000,050 hv-shcls, compared 
with the 1930 production of 973,000,000 hushels in Gerar.ny a^id the av-ora,:^o 
prod\iction for tlie -^ears 1925-1930 of 976,009,000 "bushels. T.-.o Serlin office 
retains its estimate of 150,600,0^0 h'ashels for the IJol Geraan crop. The 
official estimate v;as 155,546,030 hiishels. 

In France tic official estimate is considered too hi-2,h hp the Berlin 
office. The estiaate v/as app-j:entl;p hased on prem5,tu.re information. Heliahle 
private estim.ates place the crop at not more than 25"^, 000,000 "bushels of v/hich 
10 per cent is unfit for milling,. 

In Spain the Consultative Committee on Agricultiore has recontl3'' issxied 
an ostim to of 134,528,000 bushels for the wheat crop. Tliore is, however, 
so..ae qxiestion as to tlie official capacitp of tlhs co;xLi tteo. Tlie Berlin office 
reta.ins its estimj,te of 130,800,000 "b\\shels. Production cstins^tes for other 
continental countries remahi practically,' the ssuTie as those reported in V/orld 
\vneat Prospects, Djce;.t>er 1., 1931. ITo definite data arc .t hand, uut prelimin- 
arp indications point tc.'a.rd increase over 1930 in the acreage sov/n this 
fall, 0 spec '.all;;,' in France , Ital^^ and G-orma^i^,'. This pear the pields in 
practically all coxmtries except Italp were "belov; averape. 

The latest fipures on imports to Oecemhjr 1 show onlp slig'htlp less 
hroLip,ht in than for the correspondin-r; period l"-,st ;'ear. Tnis is due largely 
to the sitva,tion in France, where imports to date this pear hax'o heen a"bout 
norm.al, whereas last pear tie imports were very small. ixOst other countries, 
such as Germany and Italy, shov; greatlp" reduced imports as co:.ipared \/ith the 
sar.ie period a year ago. J^s we expect prohaolc imports to bo somewhat Jarper 
than in 1930-31. If Govo.rnmont restrictions are moderated taldngs af tv^r the 
first of t-ie year may increase. Germany is in a j_;osition to increase takinps 
as importers nov; hold a goodly quantity- of export cortificates v;hich permit 
the import of v/heat at a redvucod duty. Up to D.:C ember t'nis year e^rports of 
v/hoat from Gcrman,3- iiave totalled 9,039,000 "bushels and reimports of v/hoat have 
aunomited to 4,997,000 "bushels, 1 javing a"bo-at 4,000,000 "bubh:)ls to "be imported 
at the reduced rate. 

Brief ILarket Review, first half of 1931-32. Continental Iluropoan \/heat 
prices dvjring the first half of the cxirrent season were largely under the 
influence of agrarian protectionism. The period of hoav/" domestic farmer 
mar.-jtings in practically every coiuitry fi^ilod to exert tlio visual price- 
depressing iiifluenco. There v/as, of coiirso, the vlsut-I ivorupt decline from old 
crop to nev; crop prices, hv.t even the latter remained quite high. From. Jn-gust 
on there "w.s a gradual tlxough vjisteady increase in new cro"; prices in Germany, 
Italy, Czechoslovoicia, ".:Td Jnistria, v;hile French quotations shov/ed a slightly 
downward trend, Tlie maintenance of high prices for tJio do.uostic product in all 



'■ffi-6S --22- 

V->e=e eoxuitries vjas made possil^le tlirougli the existence of an Import deficit 
v-^ch permitted the effectlTe application of protective t;-.rlffs and millinG 
^luotas! Domestic wl.eat prices U. Fr.xce, Italy, and C---? .t^^f^.^^f ^ 

f. ^ ■ r.^. or- ^^-ir^no-n nrio'-q "/"ivll--' Ozeciiosiovakiaii ar.a Austrian prices, 

rrL::t-^il?cra: mS! ^S:;?;^ ^r^nce, a.. Ital. .a.e ver, M.. i.port 
S^i^f^ and .illi:.. quotas. Czec.osloval.ia and ^^^f ^ -^-^^^^i^f 
tariffs. Tlie former, lio'.vever, l.as a system oi mono.^l^ i.uoxt contingents .s 
^en as a millin£ gu^ta, SimiL.r situations exist in otner com^tnes. 



TalDle 8. 



- Price -oer tr.sliel of daaestic v/lieat at specified markets, 



Jul:/ 



DecemlDer 16, 1931 



3ate ! 


Paris 


* Hi l?.n 


1S31 


- 

Gents 


- - • - — 
: Cents 


Jul;- 


2 : 


± ^ i. 


: a/ 134 




5 : 


167 


: " 130 


Sept. 


2 £/: 


168 


139 


Oct. 


7 : 


165 


: 134 


Oct. 


14 ! 


157 


: ■ 134 


Oct. 


21 


166 


138 


Oct. 


23 


152 


141 


llov. 


4 


: 165 


: 141 


ilov. 


11 


; 164 


: 145 


i'ToT. 


18 


; 162 


: 144 


Hov. 


25 


: 159 


: 143 


Dec . 


o 


: 162 


144 


Dec . 


9 


: 162 


; 144 


Dec . 


16 


; 153 


146 


Dec. 


23 


: lo5 


: 150 


Dec . 


30 


: 166 


: 152 



Berlin 
Gents 

172 

120 

131 

135 

132 

135 

141 

147 

144 

146 

144 

143 

138 

137 

153 

140 



Pra^.^^iio 
Gents 



Vi enna 



124 

116 

102 

110 

112 

114 

115 

115 

117 

117 

117 

117 

117 

117 

117 

117 



104 
97 
98 
100 
101 
107 
114 
117 
118 
118 
118 
119 
120 
115 
120 



Posen 
Cents 

84 
60 
65 
51 

63 



70 
70 
75 
77 
73 
76 



a/ ' From ¥o'veitfo e'r "on iTe-.7 Crop. 

y Prices converted at current rates of excli -nge 



be.f'inn.in{\ v/itl: tliis date. 



Durins tke second Half of July Continental .heat markets .ere affecte . 
V the fin,.ncial crisis in German;, and tHe resulting uncer..int re .r. n^ 
^tne economic and political situation in Burooo. .3 a ^'^'^^^-f'^^ 
t:.e Continent v/as ratker quiet. In Av^ust, a gradual_increv.se of 1^^^^^];^- 
occurred which continued through September. 



Tradi m 



jarlv 0cto"ber was 



durini^ 

rat-er slo-; ^hv t ^Iterincre^sed and developed a fair volu-e. Confidence in 
i r^rice l^Uel also appeared to incre.se during this period. Dunns .ov.mo.r. 
h Sev^i C ^Une^tal m^ikets reflected onl; p.rtiall: 

on the imerica^ side. Hoveniber and Deceuh^r tradim- ana import buym. remained 
relatively limited. 

P^rm offerings on the Continent were :.,enerall:- not :;Tessins this season. 
The tra^; V n complained of very slow m.rketin,s: too slow ^-^^^^^^^^^ 
^ existiny as a Result of very small stocks in_the ^^^^^'^^^ 
nVls. It is more than likely that trade complaints ^^^'-V^-'^^^^^^^^m the 
die lar.-el- to the scarcity of supplies in trade cna.nncis and mills and tne 



■.■/1I-59 



-23- 



restriction of imports as farmor inarl:ctings have appare'itly iDeen IUII3' up 
to nornial. Stocks with the trado and tlio r.iills have roraained small, and 
'oort stocks arc also modarato. 



Tahle 9.- Continental lluropean stocks of v/licat, middle of ITov ember 
cund the middle of Docomher, 1930 and 1931 





1930 


: 1^ 






Location 


lliddle 

» n '?' 


i-tiddle 
nf 


: Hiddle 
of 




~ Middle' ' 
of 






. Ppy.'. ... - 


• . . -^-^y.* . 




Dec . 




1, OCO "bushels 


1,000 bushels 


1,000 bushels 


1,CC0 bushels 


J-nt-.vorp (visilDle) . . 


5,540 


; 2,200 


2, 790 




2,830 


Piotterdam . 


5,050 . 


7,200 


4, 120 




4,740 


Serlin (v;hea,t and flour) 


1,500 


h/ 


. a/ 1,100 




b/ 


I-Iamh-jjTg ( rou£,Ii estimat^i ) 


550 ; 


460 


. ' 620 




830 


Bremen and Brake .... 


24 : 


12 


30 




26 


German farm stocks, total 


c/' 38,900 


. d/ 75,700 


: c/ 93,100 




' 79,400 


a^/ End of iToYemlDor. 












t) ^ ^Jnd of Oocemher. 













c/ Middle of October, 
d/ hiddle of hovembcr. 

■/orld shipments of \7hoat to the Continent a:id to all irurope, as v/ell 
as on order, are some'vhat smaller to date than last year, but considerably 
a-bOYo 1929-30. The Oanubian absolute share is three times as high as last 
season, but the Russian share is nov; somowI-Lat below l\.st year. (At the end 
of October, the Hv.ssi^ai v/as very r.uch above last year). The grov/ing 
conviction that pLUSsic-n v/heat exports v/ould not rcacli last .year's level has 
been an importcait factor in shapin,^, market sentiment on the Continent. 

Sentiment on the Continental v/heat markets has j;rad\ially improved as 
the season advanced. TIae redv.ced United States and C'-nadieji spring crops, 
the drastic curtailment of Southern Hemisphere acrc.,;ye, reduced Paissian. 
S'"Lipment3 toi^ethor v.lth the imfavor.yole progress of the procuring campaign 
t-ijre, and later the reduction in hmeric :n a'inter v/heat acre .ge as v."ell as 
I'jif c'-vorable reather in thj a'intcr r/heat sections played an important role. 
T-'iC -LUicertainty, however, regarding the price level and the confusion 
res^^lting from the abandon;.ient of the gold strjid ,rd by many coiuitries has 
develo-pod a cautious attitude on the part of the trade, 'fhe r; e and 
feodstrJTfs shortage on the Continent was also a market factor, especially during 
the latter part of the period i-indor reviea'. 

Germany 

Germ.:in net imports from Jul^' 1 to ITovanber 30, 1931 Iiave amounte.l to 
only 5,034,000 bushels as co;.ipared v/ith 15,983,000 bushels imported drjring 
the sam;e period last yer.r. vac 'onusually small net imports durin:: the first 
h.^lf of the c\.\rrent season ..re largely i resvilt of the hign import duty 



V/I-I-59 



-24- 



togotlicr v/ith the Gxports of G.3rman v/iicat v/itii tlio privologo of siilDsoquont 
rGimporta of foreign v;lioc.t ".t c. i-DlvLCod ccix-ti" T'\tc. 'IhosG oirports of G-orman 
\7lioo/a rcsiiltod in an oxport siu-plus in Soptorii"ber, OctoDOX" ^.nd HoYoinbor insto.'^.d 
of "tliG usvi"! import sui-pliis. It is pcssitlo fno-ug-li tlv'^.t tlio r;"G sc-^.rcity -./ill 
v;-.rr"jat l-rgcr imports of v/lio-.t. Imports of iDro-^.d grains ;rG cxpGctod to total 
aroxind 36,743,000 tushels tho majorit;:,' of v/hicli -.vill "bo v/h.G".t. 

Despite a largjr crop this 2'Gar, little if an;;' decroaso in German 
v/heat roquirGrAonts "bclov; tho sm-.ll takings of last j^oar seoiiis prdDatlc. The 
final official estimate places this yearns v;heat crop at 155,546,000 loiishols or 
16,000,000 hushels higher than in 1930 and even tiie Berlin offices estimate of 
150,600,000 "bxishels points to zn. increase of more 'than 11,000,000 hushels in 
domestic production. On tjie other h.ind, it miist he considered th.t the siippl;^ 
situation is adversely affected h^- Crermc^i T/heat exports ani "by the xums-aally 
small carry-over at the heginninc, of the season. There is also no opportunity 
during the present season for a replacement of v/heat hy r3'e as v'as the c:>se last 
3/ear. The compulsor.y use hy hahors of 5 per cent potato flotir v/ill have very 
little effect on v;heat consumption. Consequcntl;'', rec^Liiremcnts of foreign 
v;heat in Germany during the current season m-y he only slightly holo-./ those of 
last year in spite of the increase of tlie domestic crop. Tahings, hov^ever, 
v/ill he controlled hy the Goverimient ' s policy of restrictions. 

In viev/ of the large deficit of grains in Germ?.ny tnis ,:'ear, it seems 
certain that the Government vili he forced to modify some of their import 
restrictions. So far the &o^'"ernment has avoided svich changes hy oviying v/heat 
and rye directly from the Farm Board and from Russia. Tnis has aroused a great 
deal of criticism on the part of the trade and there is a great dead of 
agitation to permiit the ordinary trade channels to handle fiiture imports. The 
domestic milling quota on vhea.t vas fixed a,t 97 per cent for the vhole year but 
in viev; of the deterioration of the crop since the qiiota v/as estahlished, some 
change may he made after tlie first of the year. 

The GeiTiian v/heat marhct dv_ring Decemier experieixed lov/er prices than 
those prevailing in ITovemher. '..Iieat prices on December 16 v/ere 9 cents per 
hvishel lo"7er thma month earlier and business is generally c!_uiet. Hills 
continvie to complain of a slach flour trade and the i^sual seasonal pick-up 
in flov.r trade prior to Christmas is al'iost completely laching as a, result of 
the continued severe economhc depression. Business activity is very small due 
largely to the hand-to-mouth policy of the tro.de. The Goverrmient action to 
rediice the general price 1 evel, althoxi^j. not directly afiecting farmer's t^rain 
prices, rem.ains a factor of vuioertaint' and 'las considerr.hlo Influence on 
present market sentiment. .'.ppro 'C-iing holidays also tend to limit market 
activit;'' to ahsolv.to reciuirements. 



-25- 



Tatle 10.- Prices oi" doraestic v/heat and vje in Gcrnian", IToyomlDGr 4- 

DccGiiber 30, 1531 



Date 



Doc. 



Prices converted at current r -tos of exclicai^e . 
a/ V/lieat of average cviality of 57,9 poimds por "bxishol. 
'hj "I.Iarlcischer" v/heat of 53.3 - 59.0 povjids pjr "busliel, 
c/ ''I -arlci seller" rye of 55.9 - 56. 7 povjids per buslaei. 





^■^no.-.t 


Rye 


Har.ibvj:-3 


Breslau '-'J 


Berlin o/ 


Berlin 





Cents 


oonts 


Gents 


\j oxJ. u b 


A 




145 


147 






150 


145 


14-4 


■ -L XO 




; 151 




146 


X X 


25 


; 14-9 


14-4 


. 142 


118 


o 


149 


146 


143 


! 1 ^1 


9 


142 


140 


133 


115 


16 ; 


139 


139 


137 


115 


or; 


: 139 


140 


138 


115 


30 


143 


140 


140 


112 



G-ornan foreign trade in v.'hes,t a^'ain res^Altod in an export surpl:\s dxirin^' 
1'Tovcr.foer v/hich anoiintel to aliout 184,000 bushels (provisional data) as conVDared 
witli 376,000 busliels in October and a net import of 1,457,000 "bushels during 
ITovcmbcr last year. Germcui exports of vdieat in Hovanber v/ere 2,346,000 bushels 
whereas imports aino-antcd to 2,465,000 bushels. 

Exports of German '.v'lier.t and rye v/ith subsequent dv.t;' favored imports 
v;ill end v/ith the close of this year, but it is already apparent, that the 
syster; has v/orked favorably for German agriciiltural interests in rclievin;-^ the 
hOxme markets from excessive offers and at the saiue tim.o m.aintainin£; domestic 
prices above the level of v/orld prices. 

Stoc':s of v/heat and r.ye on German farms on Kovember 15 reveal that the 
rapid movement from farms hvs continued. The total decrease of farm stochs 
of v;heat v:o to llovomber 15 this .year .jno-jjitcd to 76,00'},,^00 bushels r.s comp /rel 
v/ith about 63,000,000 bushels drjrin^^ the corresponding period of last year. 
Durin^ the month endjd riovember 15, v/heat stocks on farms dccre'-.scd 18,700,000 
bushels compared v/it2i a d.,-cxine of only 13,00>j,000 bushels during the sar.ie 
period last year. Total v/heat stocks on f .ri.is Kovember 15 './ere only about 
3,300,000 bushels higher than at the sane time last ^ ear in spito of the .■'.uch 
larG;er crop tliis year. '.s already pointed out in our last report, the 
abnormally lov/ carry-over a:id the export activity arc chiefly responsible for 
this situation. 



German r;:e stochs on far/:s on r.'ovem.ber 15 v/erc considerably lov/er than 
last year, amofjiting to only 131,100,000 bxishels as compc-red -./ith 189,500,090 
bu. on the same date last :'ear. The difference oet'.voen tnis yevr's and last 
yep.r*s stocks is c onsiderabl" in excess of 



the difference bctv/cen the respective 



-26- 



cro^s T\o 1931 r-c crop is to^j.^:/ 40,000,000 iDusliels s-.llcr tti^jn that of 
iq3b -/lioror.s stoclcs of r^o on f:.rns 7.rc r.oout 58,400,000 WaoIs lov;er. _-.s 
tMs'diffcroncG h-.s roniained imaltcrcd tlirous'n tlio pr.st three nont.is it is 
o-o^-^rent that tlio cr.ri--ovor of r- e from last ::c-.r v/r.s nc^is^lc and t.iao 
n^ikotinss this year havG Dcen alnost entirely from the ne'-v crop. 



France 



The preliminarv estimate of the 1931 French crop is 269,532,0.)0 hushels 
com-^ared v/ith a final estimate ■'of 231,119,000 hushels for last year. In 
accordance with '.reliahle private estiinates, however, this j ear^s crop is placed 
at about 257,000,000 bushels of a lower test weight than is oixicially 
estimate>-^. Because of the very small carry-over from l-.st year the total 
domestic supplies for 1931-32 appear to he consideraT^ly mder average dom.os.ic 
req_-airements. 

As im^.orts to date have been so large,- lower imports may be expected 
for iiie remaWer of the current season. This is apparently conf ir.'7l64by tne 
fact that the milling quota for foreign wheat was reduced from 10 to oiXy 3 ^ 
per cent at the end of Kovember. The (luota will undoubtedly be mamtaine^au 
this low level as long as possible imder the strong protective sentiment now 
prevailing in France. To prevent the illegal use of foreign wheat new 
regulations v/ere issued by the Goverrjnent. ■ . 

The present situation on the French \^4ieat market may be described as 
aniet and inactive, particularl: in the case of foreign wheat. In order to 
eliminate the hand-to-mouth policy necessary xmder a 97 per cent domes oic 
millnig on Ota and to give millers an opportunity of talcinfj advanta-e oi 
favorable bii^-ing or.portimities, the French Governmeiit has issued a new decree. 
For tlie next 45 da-s millers ma- import 10 per cent ox their tocal require- 
ments but are not permitted to mill more than 3 per cent foreign wneat. Unless 
the milling quota is changed later on, the above decree will have littie 
effect on imports. 

Fluctuations on the domestic wheat market have been small. Towaras^^ 
the middle of December the tone became slightly firmer, but there is now li utle 
activit^r. millers are complaining of unsatisfactory flom- sale.^ and are 
therefore restricting their wheat purchases to cvjrrent requirements. 

I_tal:7 

S-pplies of domestic wheat for the current season in Italy are larger 
t^ian the-' were last year and thus the difference between local supplies and 
average domestic requirements is less this year. Tie snort corn crop, 
however, is stinvalating the takings of wheat. So far imports nave "^^^^^J^y 
small, imo^onting to only 5,800,000 bushels up to the ena of November comp,..red 
with 31,930,000 bushels dvjring the corresponding period last year. ine nie,n 
milling quota for domestic wheat during the first part of '^''-^^'''''^'tZlL^iors 
chiefl- responsible for those exceptionally small wheat imports.^ Importations 
were encouraged by the fact that a milling quota of 50 per_cent xor ^f^^ 
v;heat bccaiTie effective Jan-cu:.ry 1. A further revision requir mg onlj-^ .0 per 
cent domestic wheat became effective Februr^ry 1. ^t tne same ^'^^-^^^-^^ll^^ 
quota for soft wheat was reduced to 70 per cent. This is tne firs o cnang. 
in the milling quota for soft X7heat since July 2, 1931 wnen xhe Ipw hecamc 
effective reouiring the milling of 95 per cent all domestic wneao. 



7/II-69 



-27- 



Italian \7heat marlicts have remained rather qtuet as far as foreign 
v/heats are concerned, "biit a uoderate activit;- v;as na ■j'Luj.inod in domestic 
v/heat. Prices for dor.iestic v/heat hare shown a rising; tendeixj thro-u^-hout 
the month of Deceinoer. 

Hollaiid and Bel>c^i-am 

Import requirements of hoth Holland and Belciw'i iiave not differed 
materially from last "'ear. The domestic rop is sli;;:ntly hi.^her in hoth 
coxmtries this jear, out its outturn has comparatively little effect on 
wheat imports as it docs not cover more than one-forcrth of the total require- 
Eients. Dutch requirements of foreign v/heat this yea.r api^ear to te some\/hat 
less than last year v/hen 35,^1-00,000 hushels v/ere imported. The estahlish- 
iaent of a milling q-aota on domestic './heat may reduce requirements to a small 
eztent. Belgian requirements of foreign v;heat also appear to he sliglitly 
less than the 45,100,000 "bushels imported last year. 

Di.itch v/he.it marhets have heen comparatively inactive since the end 
of liovemher and the price level is lov/er tlxan during the preceding month. 
Recent rw.iors to the effect that Holland v/ould a.handon the gold stc^ndard 
ca:._sed some pick~up in ousiness, hiit on the v.'hole, tradin;^ has heen of a 
quiet character. 

Business continued moderate on the Belgian v;heat market throughout 
December, \.'ith little change in demand or prices, 

-V^istria 

'The Austrian v/heat crop for 1931 v;as only 9,384,000 "bushels as 
cor.pared v/lth 1.^,003, JOO oushels last 3^ear o.nd a 5-year avorage of 
11,574,000 "'oushels. Considering, hov/ever, the ciirrent rate of imports and 
the indirect restriction of imports throu^^h insufficient allotments of 
foreign cf.rrencies, imports are heing discovjraged. 

The Austrian wheat market contimied firr.i during Decemher as a result 
of small domestic supplies and the contiriu:.nce of currency difficulties, 
v/hich h^zipered imports. The C-overnaent has recently created a nev; hoard of 
control in the 1-inistry of Agriculture which examines all demc'.nds for 
foreign currency' for the importation ox grain and feed. Ouce a week this ho-/rd 
passes on the necessitj'- of imiports. Their recomjaondations are then presented 
to the i'Tational Bank which a].lots the importer whatever sui.i the circvmstancos 
permit. The "banics resoiu'ces are, of co-arse, the controlling factor, .-aistrian 
grain markets are smev/hat isol^.tod from general world market tendencies, and 
Tjriccs tend to fluctuate indopender.tl;,' of world markets. Fanners are reported 
to "be holding "back and are offering onl.y in the need of cash. 

C z 0 c ho s 1 0 vaki a 

A v/heat crop ahout 12,000,000 hushels less than that of last 3'-ear, 
tends to stin.ulate Czechoslovakian imports. Imports totaled 16,300,000 "bushels 
Ir-st 5' ear. 



V/H-6S 



-28- 



Th.e present system of fixing nonthly iraport contingents for foreign v/lieat 
under the provision that one carload of domestic v/lieat aiist Toe "bought v/ith 
evor3' four carloads of foreign v.hec^t, is heavily attac'.ced Irj those representing 
agricult-ojral interests. They deraand a cliange of the ratio to 1:2 or 1:3 in 
favor of domestic r/heat. Similar regulations are asked for in the case of 
foreign rye imports. 

The import contingent for January has not yet "been r.nnotin.ced as the 
market appears to he nell supplied at present. Activity on tlie ./heat itiarket 
is no",7 reduced owing to lack of huj'ing interest partly under the influence of 
a-pproaching holidays. The restriction of purchasing power is reflected "by 
lower v/heat prices, v/hereas r3'"e' lorices are somewhat hetter maintained as a 
res-ult of the supporting effect of purchases for the army. 

Poland 

The 1931 \7heat crop in Poland is ahout 10 per cent lower than that of 
last year, this decrease in v/heat production exceeds the e^qjort surplus of 
last season. The rye crop is also helow average. Tlie Polish Export Bureau 
has already heen forced to ''ov:j Russian rye in order to fulfill sales contracts 
to Czechoslovakia and it appe.^rs that further purchases are "being contemplated. 

Polish grain markets continued relatively firm in Novemloer and Decem.her, 
particviarly with respect to hree.d grains. 

Russian v/heat outlook 

The 1931 v/heat crop in Russia may definitely "be considered as a poor 
one. Although the yields of v/inter v/heat ;/ere fairly satisfactory, much of 
the spring v/heat acreage failed to malce a crop due principally to droi^ght. 
As a result, the earlier liarvested winter v/heat enahled the Rtissians to ship 
heavily during the first part of the 1931-32 season. Tlie winter wheat crop 
v/as apparently rapidly disposed of and as exports hecame more dependent upon 
spring v/heat, there v/as naturally a reduction, i'lot only v/as the yield of spring 
\7heat disappointing, "but the quality also appears to kavo "been helov/ average. 
Because of this, Russians v/ere compelled at times to either cancel contracts 
already?- made or to make an adjustment in prices as they v/cre unahlc to do'liver 
the quantities of the grades contracted for delivery. 

Shipments of Rtissian v/heat up to Kovemher 25, 1931, exceeded last yearns 
exports. Since then, hov/ever, shipments have fallen off rapidly. 

Exports of rye from Russia this year to date h.ve greatly exceeded those 
of a year ago and in fact are almost as high as the total amo-uiit shipped out 
dxiring the entire season of 1930-31. This v/as accomplished in spite of the 
fact that it was officially aimoimced that the rye acreage for harvest this 
year v/as a"bout 3 per cent "belov/ tha.t harvested in 1930. Yields of rye this 
year are not availahle hut in viev/ of the very favora"ble yields ohtainod in 
1930, and the disappointing outtv.rn of the yields this year on crops other 
than v/inter v/heat, it seems improha'ble that the 1931 rye yields should he 
approciahly highvjr than those of the previous year. The r; c crop, therefore, 
in 1931 is not expected to exceed that of 1930 and in view of the short wheat 
crop tills year one must speculate as to the amount of "bread grains availaole 
for domestic conswpti on. Last 3-oar apparent domestic utilization of wheat and 



\TH-69 



-29- 



x-je Tro.Ft aroxuid 39,000,000 to 44,000,000 sliort tons. 'Toll fovjidcd iTanors indicato 
tlic.t a vQTj critical situn.tion in tho I'ocd supjl;" is o::poctGd to occuir this 
v/intor. In Ticv; of the crop outturn and the hea-v-- shipments to date tliis v/ould 
not "be at all surprisin;;;^. 

ShipiAonts of "bo-rle?' and oats fron Pa-.ssia to date havj boon riuch "belo'.; a 
;'Gar ago, indicating that hero .also th>j 1531 crop has ooon oclo-/ th'.t of 1530. 

In loohing forward to 1S32, a yot'j si-;nificant factor is the arjn.o-'jjic oment 
of the Soviet autP-oritios that t}:cp intend to c oncontr -.t o on q^i ditp rather than 
qiiantitp. Gonsidorinp the poor pields experienced this pear and the 
difficulti is ■jncoun.tered i±i the proper operation and ."laintenance of entdpaent, 
tho ahovo .uuiO'ojn^eivi^nt has p--.rtlcul.:.r si_.nif icanc j. It v.'O'ald -.appear to mean 
first of all that past cr-np.ai^pns have not produced sticcessful results. J-s \ 
matter of fact, the actual fulf illraent of the so-called pl'n in man;" cases 
merelp meant that so rnan;j'" acres had "been covered "b;' the oper ,tors :;ho vero , 
plo\;inp, so'.vin^:, or liTvrvostinp. It -.Tas essentiall:\ c^n area spstem \:ith little 
attention pe.id to hov; -."/oil the operations r;ere coraplotod. It rera'.ins to he 
seen v/hether or not the Russir^jis c~.n shift their en.rgies from slipshod large 
scale methods to the more ardv.oas and. e:a?.cting v/orlc necessar if average yields 
anl the qualitp of the product are to he improved. In conjiection v;ith the 
ahove araiou-icement it also appears that a coiisiierahle increase in "teclixiic 
crops (crops for use in industries, such as cotton and flax) and vegetal; les 
is plan:aed. ho dovht the a^athorities feel -that more attei'.tion must he paid to 
the '.vorher's v/elfare if permanent advancement is to he accomplished and the 
Government is to siirvive. 

Sov.'ings of v/inter gradns this fall did not ecual the ^dr.ns and in fact 
are somev/hat helov/ the actual acreage sown last pea-r. The total -.viiater sccings 
plan for last :/e2r v/as 106, jO:-, 000 acres of v/hich oiUy 97,S00,000 acres -.vere 
planted. This pear tlie pl.m is 107,000,000 acres and up to hovember :20 onlp 
95,400,000 acres v/ere seeded. In considering timeliness of planting .:e find 
that last pear aheut 73,500,000 micros or 71.7 per cent cf the plan r/ere 
actuall;"- in the gro"und "bp the end of the noriAal .sowing period. This pe-i,c 
77,500,000 acres, or 7.2.4 per cent of the plan, a-ere scan up to tho soiree time. 
Later seedings are suc.ject to severe dai'nag'e and redxiced piel.'.s. Tlius sov.dngs 
are slightly more tim.el^" this pear hut the total acreage pra.iises to fall short 
of last pears final seedings. 

■".Iiat the spriiig so^rn acreage v.'ill he, cannot he predicted at this time. 
It appears, hoa'ever, that ohe Russians plcua onlp a 4.7 per cent increase in 
the total crop acreage in 1932. 'Tith the largest increase occurririg in the 
c.se of "toclmical" crops and vegeto.hlos. This would indicate that iZie spring 
wheat acreage v-ould noz differ greatly from that in 1931. Yields of crops 
are not predictahle at this time as everything depends upon next year's 
weather conditions. Inasmuch, hoa-cvcr, as a ccnsid 'rahle part of tlie sprin^g 
wheat acreage is beijig shix-ted to the semi-arid 'regdons of the Scuth-.d .st and 
3ast, the dan;jer cf a partial or complete crop f.-dlva-e becomes gre-.tor. 



;.'H-69 



-30- 



TaMc 11. - TTneat i-xludin flo'or: Experts from principal erporting 
countries, Octolier, lTovGm"ber ancT DccemlDer 1930 and 1931. 



Cou.utr3" 


[ OcU 


IToVi ■ ! 


Dec.- 




; 1330 


19r-l 


1930 


1931 


: 1930 


: 1931 ^a/ 




: 1,-X)0 


1,000 


: 1 ,000 ; 


1 ,000 


1,000 


: 1,000 




. uushcls 


Imshel s 


: Imshels 


: "busiicls : 


OUshcl S 


'ouslicls 


United St-.tcs , . 


12,355 


' 15,563 


: 8 , 701 


! 13,550': 


6,906 . 


10,911 


Canada 


33, -446 - 


21,438 


: 34,784 


: 29,596 


: 24,939 


: 12,094 


Argentina a/ . 


4,124 


5,572 


: 2,912 


5,364 


: 4,964 


: 7,462 


British India . , 


820 


,a/ 32 


371 


:a/ 8 


: 527 


0 


Australia 


3,553 


.a/6,844 


: 9,883 . 


.i/ 5,900 


: 9,054 


: 8,8&6 


Russia a/ . . . . 


18,280 ; 


12,608 


: 23,328 


: .7,056 


: 11,568 , 


: 4,360 


DanulDe & Bulg. a/ 


1,288 


, 9,200 


: 1,792 


; 6,224 


: 1 , 552 


: 5 , 712 


Total .... 


: 73.866 


: 71,257 


: 81,771 


: 68,198 


: 59 , 510 


: 49,395 



Compiled from official and trade sources, a/ Preliminary, 



Table 12. - United States; Imports and exports of wheat including flour. 

July 1 - December 31, 1950 end 1931. 







Item 


: J-oly 1, 1931 ■ 

: to 

. ~ Dec. 31, 1931* 


: July 1, 1930 

: to 

D^o a, 193Q. 


EXPORTS: 
TTheat 

Jlour 


in terms 


of wheat 


: 1,000 bushels 

: 58,643 
: 22 , 482 


: 1,000 uashels 

; 55,321 
: S3, 102 








: 81,125 


; 87,423 


DIPOHTS: 
'.heat 


(July - 
in tonus 


IJov em"ber ) 

of wheat ; 


: 7,0nO 
1 ■ 


: 9,838 
: 4 








: 7,001 : 


9,842 


IJBT SXPORTS: 
"iTlieat 

FlouJT in terr.is 


of wheat 


51 , 643 ; 
: 22,481 : 


45,483 
32,098 








74,124 


77,581 



Compiled from official sources. 



■7H-69 



-31- 



Tr,ble 13.-V/iiect including flour: Net imports into ropean coimtr ies , 
yec-r3 1929-L;0, 195C-:51 caid July 1 to Ir.test d;r.te 1931-32 



Country 



United Kingdom 

Belgium 

Pr cnc e ....... 

Netherlands . . 
Germany ...... 

Greece ....... 

Irish Free Sta 
S'/zitzerland . . 

Xi.U3 "til? iti « • « e o • 

Gzechoslovalcia 
Denmark . . 
Non'-'ay . . . 
Finland . . 
Sweden . . . 
Poland » . . 
Portugal . 
Latvia ... 
Estonia . . 
3po.in .... 



to 



Total 



1929-30 



IJillion 
bushels 



202 
43 
43 
20 
30 
61 
22 
18 
17 
18 
12 

6 

7 

. 7 
aA/ 
. 6 

2 

1 

5 



526 



1930-31 



-Jill ion 
bushels 

221 
84 ■ 
45 
45 
35 
30 
24- 
19 
18 
15 
15 
11 
G 



b/ 



582 



Compiled from official sources, 
a/ Less than 500,000 bushels, 
b/ ilet exToort. 



Prelim. 

estimate 
1931-32 



llillion 
b ushels 

200-210 
64-70 
42-46 
55-62 
31—33 
16-29 

16- 20 

17- 18 
16-17 
22-24 
10-12 

7-0 

5- 5 

6- 7 

2- 4 
1-2 
1-2 

3- 5 



'et imports reported 



'uly 1 to 



ov • 

Aug. 

Oct. 

Oct. 

r: ov . 

Oct. 

Sept. 

Oct. 

hov. 

Oct. 

Oct. 

Oct. 

hov. 

Oct. 

1 :0V. 

Oct. 

Sept. 
Sept. 
Sept, 
.-.ur. 



30 
31 
31 
31 
30 
31 
30 
31 
30 
31 
31 
51 
30 
51 
30 
31 
30 
30 
30 
31 



1930- 



Ilillion 
bushels 



100 
10 
16 
6 
17 
15 
5 
7 
9 
5 
•5 



0/ - 



1 
1 
1 



211 



1931-52 



Llillion 
bushels 



■u'H-69 -32- 

Ta'olc 14. - United States i E:roorts of v/hcat and. v/hcat including flo^jx. 

. "d-/ ;vcoks, 1930 and li'31. ■ 



Date 





1930 


■ 1931 


1930 ; 


1931 


1930 


: 1931 






1 , UUu 


1 , UUU 


I , UUU 


1 , u uo 


1 , UUU 


•.. 1 , cou 






uusnex s 


"busiicl s 


"barrel s 


"barrels 


"'oush.el s 


• "busliel s 


Jan. - June 






1 ^ > ' ^u 


A '-1 P 


, DO , tX-y 




July 4 — 


■AX)r\ 1 


12,937 • 


. • 13,502 


845 


731 


■ 18,009 


: 16,93 8 


Aic,. 3 - 


; A:ag.29 


. 14,057 


6,274 


; 887 


■ -551 


18,226 


8,863 


Sc"ot , 5 - 


•Oct. 3 


, Ox u 




, X , tjoO 




X c/ , X X D ■ 


. X X , .JO ^ 


Oct. 10 - 


Oct. 31 




n n Rpv 


o ^ o 


' . RPQ 


-' , X 0>J 


• "J J 'J-'- "J 


Week 


ended 














Nov. 7 




1,097 


: 2,773 


: 223 I 


141 


2,145 


: 3,435 


14 




517 


: 1,960 


: 1.j3 


: ■ 108 


: 1,283 : 


2,468 


21 


• • • 


81 9 


2 465 


1 6? 




1 58n 




28 


• « • 


99 , 


1,754 


; 257 


-100 


1,307 


: 2,22 4 


Dec. 5 


• • » 


1,214 


: 1 , 469 


105 


211. 


. .1,708 


2,461 


12 




555, . 


2,403 


121 


. ■ 146 


■ . 1^124 ■ 


: 3,089 


1^ 


* • • 


■ 373 


: . 1 , 631 


! 210 


162 


1,360 


: 2,39 2 


26 


• • • 


274 


641 


: 158 


183 


1,017 


: 1,501 


Jan, 2 


• • • 


238 : 


1,068 . 


166 


. ■ 85 . 


. - • 1 ,018 


: 1,468 



V.'licat includin/?- flour 



Comoilod from v/eekly report of Department of Coimnerce. 



Ta'bie'15. - V,lieat J.ncl Lading flour:. . Sliipnents from princip.al exporting regions, 

specified dates, 1930 and 1931.. 



Date 


: Argentina 


: Austr 


i a 


: ■ Dmube 


: Nort'ii Americr. 




: 1950 


: 1931 


: 1930 


: 1931 


: 1930 


: 1931 


: 1930 


: 1931 




: l,0'-'0 


1,000 


: 1,000 


1,000 


1 ,000 


1 ,0'0 


1 ,000 


1 ,000 




: buslicl s 




: Toushol 9 


;l;Ushelo. 


; bushels 


:"bnahcls: 


lu shel s 


"bushels 


Jan. - June 


: 62,012 


94,536 


: 38,500 


.105,648 


3,896 


: 4,408 


146,712 


155,8:2 


Jul;' 4- Aug. 1 


: 4,892: 


9,360 


: 6,320 


• 15,780 


408 


744 ; 


40,616 


27,048 


Aug. 8-Aug.29 


: 3,728: 


5 , 372 


: 4,812 


. 7,596 


1,368 


: 504 : 


40,528, 


23,3 S 


Sept.5-0ct. 3 


: 3,756. 


6,940 


: 5 , 460 


8,216 


4,312 


: 9,576 . 


45,552 


30,960 


0ct.l0-0ct.31 


: 4,124: 


5,572 


: 6,492 


: 6,844 


. 1,288 


: 9,200 


28, 680 


29,040 


'.Teck ended 


















Nov. 7 . . . . 


: 600: 


1,908 


: 1 , 848 


2,656 


528 : 


1 , 472 


9,240 


10,616 


14 ... . 


: 854. 


1 , 653 


: 1,724 


1,808 


; 632 


1,864 


6,336 


; 8 , 936 


21 .... 


: 544: 


1,360 


: 368 


1,112 


520 


: 848 


. 7,456 


7,024 


28 . « • • 


: 904: 


944 


: 1 , 000 


524 


112 


2,040 


5,360 


8,160 


Dec. 5 . . . 


: 924: 


668 


: 1,896 


992 


254 


: 1,024 


8,792: 


7,128 


12 . . . 


: 544: 


1,176 


: 1 , 848 


1,448 


568 


. 1,568 


5,264 


5,864 


19 . . . 


• 1,244: 


1,736 


' 2,180: 


. 1 , 528 . 


192 . 


: 1,568 : 


5,072: 


5, 032 


26 . . . : 


992: 


2 , 448 : 


2 , 200 ; 


3,364: 


216 


: 324 


4,960 


• 4,?5i 


Jan. 2 . . . 


1,260: 


1,434 


2,196: 


1,524- 


312 : 


728 : 


4,060: 


5,921 



Compiled from official and trade sources. 



xo.blo l6.-'.'he ^t including- Tlour: Ilovx.vant fran principcl 

cxi:ortiri£' co-'antri cs 







: -..:.-oorts as fy.vo-n bv 


I'Ticial 


scurcos 




Country 




: Total 




: July 1 to dat: 


■ sIio'.."n 




i Dato 






: 1923-29 !l9£9-L0 


: 1930-31 


: 19 29 -30 


: 19 30-31. 


1931-32 


— T- 





: 1,000 : 1,000 


: 1,000 


: 1,000 


: 1,000 < 


1,300 








rbusliols ibusliols 


: bus lie Is 


:bUEh^_l3. 


;busli3ls : 


busiicls. 




Unitod 3tL^t3s ... 




: 163, 637 :lo.:,242 


• 

: 131, 536 


1 

: 79,767 


: 31,190 


70,214 


: LIov . 50 






:422,732:134,213 


: 267 , 36o 


: 91,537 


: 142, 64 6: 


96,240 


: 3,ov. 30 


Argentina . . . . . . . 




: 227, 059: 161, 265: 120, 510 


: 59,508 


: 10,978- 


19,942 


: oopt. 30 


^aistralia ....... 




: 107, 7 35: 61,892:143,295 


: 14,03-7 


. 14,435: 


31,014 


: Sept. 30 






: : 7,330:110,909 











Zun.-L.ry 




: 25,653: 31,415: 18,425 


: 9,778 


! 5,131: 


5,572 


: Sept. 30 


Yug-osl^-vic ...... 


• • • 


: 7,919: 23,59,3: 4,930: 9,416 


: 3,054: 


6,738 


: S^pt. 30 


Hu:nr-nici 




1,653: 2,560: 14,792: 52 


3\_>2 


430 


: July 31 


— -jCit-- •••••ee* 




760: 96: 5,041 


: 11 


746 


1 , [•42 


: --aag . 31 


Brit is:; Indir-(L c; 


3) 


5,716: 6,7i;0 


: 10,197: 1,357 


4,842: 


954 


: Au^;. 31 


Total 


• • • 


: 9 60, 9 59 : 632,454 


.827,000:265,523 


; 263 ,412 : 


230,446 








! 3hi"'xi3nt3 as j-:,!"/. 


Ai by ci:2 


"rent tr^ 


-d, scare 


iOS 






Total 


•"7- 


;o::3 :;ndi 


. . . : 


July 1 ' 


:o tj'an. 2 






.1929-50:1930-31 
!(aov.) :(FrGl.) 


poc. 19 


[Dvc. 26 


J an. 2 

! 


1950-31 


J 19 31-32 






! 1,000 : 1,000 


! 1,000 


! 1,000 


1,000 : 


1,'jOO 


: 1,000 






busliols :buslaol_s_ 


blishcls 


! Q US -L 3 ' 


ijUsIa' Is : 


b'asa^ls 


:b us hols 


i. or til Air. one a c/ 


a • • 


317,243:367,768 


. 5^032 


: 4,754 


5,921: 


211j_935 


;174,3cJ5 


Canada, 4 inar'Ajts 


/ 


195,380:270,168 


1,611 


:' 1,979: 


^ ^ O u> • 


178,793 


:123,975 


Unitad 3t-:to3 . . . 


• • • 


149,758:132,27 6 


2,392 


l,a01 


1,458 : 


89,120 


: 81,127 


-.rgontina . . . . c . . 


• o e 


164,984:118,712 


T n rr 
X , / OO 


2,448' 


l,4o4: 


24,376 


: 40,570 


j.'i.l13 t XCv o • • B • • o 


. . , < 


64,375:144,512 


1,528 


5,364 


1,524: 


38,364 


: 53,292 


Russia qJ ....... 


• • • 


5,672: 92,520- 


1,328 


1,256: 


( to • 


72,056 


' 65,540 


Danubo L Bulr^.-ria 


/ 

?J 


18,384: 15,126 


1,568 


524 . 


728: 


10,720 


31,760 


Bi itish Iv.dia . . . 


• • • ! 


d/l,936 ; 5,8o8 ; 


0_ 




Oj 


5 , 632 


616 


Total qJ . , . 


ft s • ! 


572, oCO i"74-, -k.6" 


11,192 




9^679: 


363 , 584 


357,7 13 


Total European 
















sliipmonts zj ... 


• o • ! 


476,096:614,468! 


O , \^CKj \ 






311,064. 


262,750 


Total ox- -.uropoan 
















s hiioraonts a/ . . . 


• • e i 


158, 688:172, 600: 


5,504 • 






61,516: 


86,744 



a/ ErooiTiliall' 3 Corn Trade iTews. b/ ?crt 'Villirjn, Port Arthur, "/ancouver and 
Prince Piupert. c/ PlacA 3er. shipnents only. d/ Ket iriports 1929-30 \7er9 
1,847,893 bushels; for 1930-31 v;ere 420,099 bushels. Total or trade 

figures includes l.'ortli A'nerica as reported by BroorAi/.ll' s . 



COI'TSITTS PAGE 

1 - Smrj.ip.r^' 1 - 3 

2 - Snv/iiv,s and Decenber 1 ConaitiDn of Jint'ir v.'he-'t -"jid Rye Crops. .3-4 

3 - ■ihor.t Prices 4 - 7 

4 - TliO .'"orld ^.he-.t Situr.ticii in -Et.-1- tiori to otlier Crrains and Potatoes. 8 - 10 

5 - Tl'.o 'ii'.-iec t' Situation in Argentina, 11 - 12 

6 - Austr.-.lia 12 

7 - Tho D-imbe Basin •«neat Situation Durin^ December 1931 12 - 19 

8 - The C:)ntincntal Zaropecn .:i?.eat Ilarket Situation . . . . ' 20 - 29 

TA3LSS 

1 - v/lieat: Price per b-ashol at specified narl-ets, October 2, 1951- . 

J'.nuar7 8, 1932 6 

2 - V/iiCat: ^joiglattd average cash prices at stated inarlcets ....... 7 

3 - .'heat: Closing, prices of 'lir:/ futures '7 

4 - H^e: Production in specified cotuhcries, 1927-28 to 1950-31. ... 9 

5 - Pot^vtocs: Production in specified coui^trics, 1927-1931 10 

6 - /nc-t: H.;.f;^i3tcred arrivalc at Braila port end soles to exporters, 

scr l-L.or;thly , Septonber to Deceirfocr 15, 1931 14 

7 - Jlieat: Price joor bushel of covrparaole gr.o.des on principal Dojiube 

E,-,sin Lcarkets, monthly, Septenbor wid October, v/celcly iNOVerbcr 

o^id fir;it half of December 1931 15 

8 - Price per bushel of vdomestic wheat at specified markets 22 

9 - Continental Europern stocks of wheat, middle of il^vember and the 

cuddle of Decoviber, 1930 Cuid 1931 23 

10 - Prices of domestic wheat and- rye in Germany 25 

11 - ./heat includin^, flo\ir: Exports from principal exporting coun- 

tries, October, ITovembor and December 1930 and 1931 30 

12 - United Ste.tes: Imports oJid exports of v/heat includin,^- flour ... 30 

13 - iJhe-t ineludini^- flour: ITet imports into European countries ... 31 

14 - United States: Exports of wheat a:id wheat including flour, by weej:s. 52 

15 - .'rLieat includin,, flour: Shipments from principal exporting regions, 

specified drtes, i:50 a:ad 1931 32 

15 - .>dieat includin.^ flour: Movmnent from principal exporting co^jintries. 33 



vVH-70 



P 



Ul'IITED STATIiS EEPAHT:,.3:IT OF AaRICULTUSE 
Burerva of Agrlcul tur'al EconoTdcs / 
'//fi3hin_ ton / 



WORLD lV:^k7 PIiuSPECTS 




Av^alable supplies of v.-hcat in the principal e::porting countries s.s of 
Febraary 1 are cstiiiiated by the Bui-eau of Agricultural Economics to be nli^^iit- 
ly lens tha;'i on tiie same do.te the previous year. This, together with the fact 
that the surplus is ioore largely in the United Str.tes, where it is strongly 
held, £iid less in Ar^rentina and Arastralia, is tendinr, to improve the position 
of tne exporting countries in the world wher.t market. Indications also point 
to reduced stocks in the principal ir^porting countries of the Zuropecn Continent, 
although port stocks in the United Kin'-uom together with quantities aJTloat, 
are at a soi;:ewhat higher level than last year. Restrictions on the milli;ig of 
foreign wheat in botn Italy and France have been rela:x:3d during the past month. 
Prices in the different markets daring January and up to February 10 showed 
divergent tendencies but from the 10th to the loth of Febrij.ary there was a 
me,rked improvevaent of prices in almost all of the principal markets of tne world. 

Total shipments from the principal exporting countries of tHe world after 
having increased very rapidly during Jaiuiary to a high point of 19 million 
bushels for tne third w.-jek of the month, then ::eclined to only 14.2 laillion 
bushels for the last week of January, and for the first tv/o w^eks of Febraary 
amounted to 15.8 aiid 16,0 million bushels respectively. This compares with a 
level of about 17 million bushels weekly which pr(;vailed dir.ring most of 
SeptSuVoer, October, aaid ITovomber. Tine incrtsse during Jr-nuary was due to the 
beginning of thu new crop movement from the So^-thern Hemisohere. Shipments 
from Australia bcgexi to increase in r>;cei.'.ber and increased very shr,rply in 
January- to a high level of nearly 8 million bushels for the third week of that 



WH-70 



-2- 



rnontli, but tx.jrcafter declined to a level of aromid 4 to 5 rnilliori "busliels 
weekly. Ar^'cntine shipments, while ii'.criasin£, slightly dui-in^ Deceraber, showed 
no narlied iiicrervse until mi d- J ^miary . Shipments from ITorth America have 
continued at a level of around 5 million bushels m.onthly ever since the middle 
of December, while Russia and the Danube Sasin have exported vury little wheat 
in recent weeks. 

Vvith supplies apparently dwindling in the importing co-untries and with 
the surioluses in exporting countries apparently boine held in fairly strong 
hands, it a^o ears that more attention is bein,5 paid to the outlook for the 1932 
crop. ^Tlie pressure of the increased movomient from the Southern Hemisphere 
resulted in no narked wealcening of world prices a:id with the neaviest of tiie 
early movement alrep.di^' past, there appears to be less a;oprehension in the markets 
tnat the pressure of current supplies will cause price recessions. In 
consequence increasing attention is bein, given to new crop developments in 
the Northern Hemisphere .and to the factors which moy increase the bu;)'ing power 
of the importing countries and the holding power of the exporting countries. 

Whea t Price s 

Wheat urice movements showed divergent tendencies in the various world 
markets d-.iring J^iuary. At Liverpool o.nl Buenos Aires the trend was slightly 
downward from the first market dcys ox the month until the last two days when 
about hali of the month's losees were recovered. In horth Americm markets,^ 
on the otxicr hand, prices moved irregularly upv/ard, with tne result tiiat during 
the latter po.rt of th.^ month Chicago i-iay futures prices roiiged from 5 to 6 
cents per bushel above Liverpool. At Paris and lUlaai there was little change 
in domestic wheat urices durin^ Jamiary, but at Berlin a marked rise occurred, || 

During the first ten d^^^^s of Tebruary United States prices sag^^ed a^little 
while Liverpool prices remiained fairly steady, but from the lOtn to tne IStl:^ 
there was a marked improveiaent of whe ;t prices in which practically all of the ^ 
world mojrlcets shared. 

futures prices at the principal world ;narkets fluctuated within a fairly 
narrow rcnge iring January. At Chicago, Mr,y futures improved slightly during 
the first half of the month reaching a high closing level of 60-7/8 - 61 on 
Jrnuary 18. A slight decline during the latter half of the month resulted in 
the close of 5£-7/s - 59 on Juuuary 50. The close on Tebruary 9 w,-s 57-1/8 - I/-' 



WK-70 ' 



-3- 



y.vsj futures -t Xansr.s City ndvn;.icod slivfxitly duriiv: tlie first half of J-.nu,?.ry 
reac/xir^, c. ui'Ui point of o2j - o/ 3 on the 18th raid subs>-.qucr,tiy decliniii^- 
durin;^ the l,-,tt^r half of tlic .aorith ,-j^.d closinf- at 50^- on J cwxlxv ,30. The 
close -on TcloruaiT 9 was 49-l/8. At I/iinneapoli s i/iay futures closed at o^t on 
January -1, -dvcnced "'bGut 2 cer.ts durin.^ the next three days, then remained 
prrctically uriChaii-;ed ui'.til tnc mid-nonth advance which reached a hi_h of 
71x on tno IStn. A slight decline durin,,' the latter half of the month re- 
sulted in a close of G9-o/8 on the 30th. The close on :?ebrurry 9 was 67-3/8. 
At Winnipes, futures followed a course -irailar to that of United States 
markets except that the liigh point was rercned on tne 20th when 'Acy futures 
closed at 55 cents p^r bushel. Tiie- close on January 30 vas' 53.9 - 54. hay 
futures -t Liverpool adva-icod sli jlitly during the first, few days of January 
reaching a h.it^-h of 53-3/8 on the 7th, i^^id subsequently declined to a lo\.' of 
53-d/8 o-:\ thu 2&th, The close- cn the 30th was 55'^ and' on Jebraary 9 was 
56-3/3. At 3uencs Aires Febi-^aary futures followed th'e course of prices in 
ITorth --.nericrai inarkets except that the hii,'h point was reached on Jaiiuary 11, 
with a close of 42^ cents per bushel. The close on January 30, was 41 cents. 
March futures at trds market closed 'on 7ebr^aary 3 at 43-3/8 cents. 

Cash wheat prices at the principal United States markets improved slight- 
ly^ durin^ the month of January. ¥,o. 2 Hard'H'inter at Kansas City averaged 
515" cents on tne 4th of Jaiiuary, advanced during the first three weeks of the 
month, reacnlng a hi.:_,h avera^'e of 57.9 cents on January 20, and subsequently 
declining during the latter -half of the month to an average of 53.7 cents on 
the oOtn. ilo. 1 D&rk ilorthern S pring s.t Minneapolis opened the month with an 
average of 75'j cents. A net advance during 'the first tnree weeks resulted in 
an avercge of 30.3 cents per busnel on the 21st. A net decline during the 
remainder of tne month resulted in an average of 77.3 cents on the 30th. A 
further decline during the first part of February resulted in an average of 72.9 
cents Mer bushel on February 9. ilo. 2 Amber DuruJTi at Minneapolis advaiiced 
durin-- the first three weeics of the month reaching a high mid-month avcrf-e of 
94.5 on Jen^iary 20th, and siibsequently declining to a low average of 92.1 on 
the; 23th. The ave-rsg-e on the 30th, however, was 95.8. l^o. 2 Red Winter at 
St. Louis followed tne general course of prices for tne other classes and 
grades reaching a high daily averag'e of 59.5 on the 18th. The average for the 
30th v/as 55.5, about 1 cent under the average on the 4th. All classes and 
grades at six .ar.rkets averaged £3 cents per bushel for the week .ndod January 
1. A uniform adv<3nce during, the first tnree weeks ox the month resulted in aai 
average of 63 cents for the week ended January 22. There was a 2 cent per 
bushel decline in this average during the last week of January. At Winnipeg 
Ho. 3 Lvanitoba iTorthern averaged 43.1 cents for the week ended January 8 raid 
remained practically "onchanged duriiv the second week of January. Advances 
during the latter half of Januozy and early February resulted in on average 
of 45.2 cents per bushel for the week ended Fobruar;.' 5. At Buenos Aires near 
futures declined during the first week of January, advanced slightly during 
the second week and subsequently declined to an average of 40.6 cents per 
bushel f-.n the week ended February 5. Domestic wneat in J>ngland end '/Jrles 
remained pra ctically unchanged at aro'ond 54 cents per bushel during J.-i.uary. 
Domestic whcrt rt Berlin advanced uniformly during January from ^51. 43 to s5l.50 
pc-i- bushel. The average for the week ended Febraar;/ 5 was ^1.53. Domestic 
wheat at raris declined slightly daring the first Wcck of January, then ad- 
vanced to an aver.age of $1.70 for the week ended Jrnuaiy 22. SubseQuont 
declines resulted in cn average of .^1.68 for the week ended February 5 ct hi Ian, 
domestic wheat declined during J^uiuar^^ averaging $1,53 per bushel for the week 
ended J uiuary 29, but advanced to an average of $1.58 for the week ended 
February 5, 



WH-70 



_4- 



Table 1.- W'Lert: Price per bishel at specii'ied laarket^ 

1931 - Feoruary 12, 1932 



Noveinber 6 , 





'^■■"rnspiS • 


Minne— ; 


\f iiii, i— : 


Siieiios 1 


Liver- : 


G-rea.t : 








We ell : 


City : 


a onl '1 s * 

QJj^J W -L. .1. ■ 


I-' 6 


Aires : 


pool '• 


Bri tain: 


Berlin : 


Paris : 


Hi Ian 


ended 


a/' 


b/ 


c / 


d/ : 


e / 


/ 




h/ : 


i/ 




bents : 


'^ents 


Cents : 


U en L, s : 


C en t s ; 


0 -t- a 

u en L s 


C on f • 

u ^. 11 U S 


p -i-i j- e » 
w tr 11 U o ■ 


0 i" <^ 


i^iov. 6 . . . 


59, 7 : 


82 . 6 : 


57 .1 : 


bi , 2 . 


"7 r\ o • 


CD . o 




_L w « 


1 41 




bi • D : 


oi . 4 : 




Oi . D : 


od, r ; 


AQ 

o . o 


1 44 




140 


"ir\ 


O 1 i 

od, i ; 


1 8 . 1 : 


oi o b : 


oU . / . 


o o . , 


c o . o . 




162 : 


144 


2 / . . . 


54,1 : 


77.1 ; 


4(' 0 9 : 


A r A 


oo. ( . 


c o. o 


X • 


1 59 


143 


Dec . 4. . . 


53.6 : 


76.8 


45. • 


41 . 8 


Q c < 


. 1 


I 4-3 

Xt:0 




144 


11... 


52.8 • 


72. 9 


43 c 7 


41 . 6 ; 


O . i 


Ob, 


XO o 




1 ^4 


18. . . 


53,4 


73. 8 


42 .7 


40 . 8 


DO. ( 


0 ( • lO 


1 XO ( , 


1 n3 


146 


24. . . 


51.3 : 


73.2 


41.3 


42.4 


57 .5 


55,7 


. 138 


. 166 


150 


<-)i . . . 


ox » U I 






d? 9 


5R.1 


54,7 


: 140 


166 


153 


J an . S . . . 


51.6 


74.2 


43.1 


: 42.7 


: 57,9 


54.3 


143 


168 




15. . . 


: 53.1 


77.3 


43.0 


: 41.9 




53.7 


: 145 


: 136 


155 


22. . . 


: 54.2 


78,8 


: 44.1 


42.1 




: 54.0 


146 


170 


: 154 


29. . . 


: 51 . 5 ■ 


• 76.8 


: 44.1 


• 41.0 




, 53.2 


150 


lo9 


153 


Feb. • 5.,. 


: 53.7 


77.5 ■ 


: 45.2 


: 40.6 






: 156 


: 168 


: 153 


12. . . 














: 157 


: 172 


: 163 



Prices are a-vcratses of daily prices for weeks ending Friday except as follows: 
G-reat Britain prices of home grown wheat are averages ^"or the week ending 
Saturday. Berlin, Paris, and Milan Drices are Wednesda;- quotations. Prices at 
Winnipeg, Buenos Aires and Liverpool are converted to United States money at 
the current rates of exchani'e beginning with the weex. ended September 25. 
Prices at Berlin, Paris, a;nd i/dlan are converted at the current rates oeginning 

a/'lTo. 2 Ha,rd Winter, b/ ITo. 1 Dark ITor them Spring, c/ llo. 3 :/lanitoba i^orthern. 
d/ Hear futures, e/ All sales of im-oorted parcels, f/ hone gram w:.eat m 
England ajid Vi'ales. £/ Domestic, "KarLuscher" v/heat 56-59 poun.^s per Wincnester 
bushel, h/ Domestic v/heat of 57-58 pounds per Winchester busn<-^l. 
\J Domestic \>iheo,t. 



WH-70 



-5- 



Tatle 2,- '7heat: Aver,i^~ e inrice per bushel of parcels of specified 

descriptions c.i.f, at Liverpool, specified periods 1930-31 

to 1931-32 



Period 


Ijo, 3 !,:anitoba- 


Rosafe 


: 17 or them 








1930-31 


; 1931-32 


1 930-3 1 


1 931-32 




: C en t s 


Cents 






July 


: 108 


65 




57 


Aug < 


104 


: GO ■ ' 






Sept 


93 


: 58 




: 54 


Oct 


87 


: 59 


• Ofj 


S4 


Nov 


79 


68 J 






Dec 


75 


: 60 


DO 1 


54 


JaJi 


: 71 




■ DX 




V/eek ended : 










IJov, 6 


83 


70 ; 


80 ; 


66 


13 


£0 ; 


72 


78 ; 


66 


20 


75 


68 


70 


63 


27 ; 


79 


64 


74 ; 


59 


Dec, 4 : 


77 


61 


70 : 


55 


11 ; 


77 


61 


71 1 


53 


18 


: 73 : 


60 


69 J 


54 


25 


70 


60 


: 63 J 


53 


Jan, 1 ; 


G3 


59 


: 60 ; 


53 


8 


72 ! 


61 


63 : 


54 


15 






62 : 




22 


70 i 




60 : 




29 : 


70 : 




59 : 





Gonpiled froni Drooinhall ' s Daily Corn Trade Hews, 



WH-70 



-6- 



Table 3.- Wheat: Closin-^ prices of l/Iay futures at specified markets, 
I'overaber 7 - February 13, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



j^a i^e 


Cnicaj^o 


.Kansas City 


[ Minnea.polis 


] Winnirjcg a/ 


' Liverpoola/ 


: Buen 
i^ires 


OS 

b/ 




: 1930 


: 1931 


1930 


: 1931 


1930 


:1931 


:1930 


:1931 


:1930 


:1931 


. 1 bi^iO 


' 1931 




* n "h c 




C ©n t s 


: C en t s 


: 0 en t s 


. b exi t s 


: u cnt s 


. oents 


: oents 


L en 1 3 


. u e a 0 s 


: Gents 


I\i 0 Y . 7 


: 60 


: 72 


74 


: 64 


76 


: 7 9 


: 74 


: 67 


34 


: 75 


• c /70 


• d / 52 


14 


: 74 


62 


69 


: 54 


: 69 


69 


: 64 


59 


: 77 . 


. 67 


c/64 




21 


81 


: 60 


74 


: 55 


: 76 


: 70 


; 70 


60 


' 7 9 


67 


:e/62 


:c/50 


28 


: 79 


:, 56 


72 


: 49 


: 74 


65 


64 


54 


. 78 


. 58 


e/64 


: c/44 


Eec. 5 


81 


:, 59 


74 




: 75 


68 


: 64 


: 55 


77' 


■ 59 


: e/65 


:c/44 


12 • 


81 


!; 56 • 


73 


: 49 


r~ r 

( o 


• 65 


:: 59 


52 


: 72' ■ 


• 56 ■ 


:_e/58 ■ 


:c/43 


19 


: 81 


: • 57 


73 


49 


76 


67 


: 56 


: 50 


57' . 


58 ■ 


: e7-55 


:c/43 


26 : 


31 


:.. 55 : 


73 


49 


: 76 


: 66 


:' 55 


51 


:f/52 


■ 58 


:e/48 


:c/43 


31 : 


81 


:• 57 


73 


50 


76 


68 


54 


53 


: o2 ■ 


58 


e/49 • 


:c/43 




1931 


:1932 


1931 


1932 


:1931 


1932 


::1931 


1932 


1931 : 


1932 ■ 


1931 ■ 


:1932 


Jan. 9 : 


83 


57 


74 . 


■ 49 


77 : 


68 


56 


53 


63 


. 57 


.e/50 


:e/44 


16 


82 


59 


74 


51 


77 : 


69 


: 56 


54 : 


52 : 


. . 55 


:.e/48 


'.el 42 


23 : 


82 


: 58 : 


74 : 


50 


77 


68 


■ 57 


53 


61 : 


. 55 . 


ey47 


: ey42 


30 : 


82 


:' 59 : 


73 


50 




69 


\ 58 : 


54 


61 : 


55 . 


,e/47 


:e/42 


Feb. 6 : 


82 


:" 58 : 


73 : 


50 : 


77 


68 


!' 52 : 


55 • 


63 


55 . 


,e/47 


:e/43 


13 : 


83 




74 




77 : 




63 : 




64 : 




cy49 





a/ Conversions October, 1931 to date at noon bv^ying rate of exchange, 
b/ Prices are. of day previous to other prices. .. 
cj Februcry X"j.tures. 

d/ Deceraber iu.tures. ' ' ■ 

_e/ i:arch futures. ' . ■ . . 

f/ December 29 price. ■ ' ■ • 



i 



WH-70 -7- 

• 



Table 4.- Wheat: 'i'ei2,iite;l avtra£,e cash prices at stated markets , 
October 9 - February 12, 1330-31 and 1331-32 





All classes: 


Eo. 


2 : 


ITo . 


1 


: Ho. 




ric . 


2 : 


"Western 


'n e elc * 


C\ T\ (\ O* 




Hard 'iinter: 


Dk, IT. Spring 


: Amber 


Dunim: 


Red H'inter : 


f nite 




£i O « 


o t-.. lit 




KaiiSas City: 


i'r'^innearolis 


: rtiinneapolis: 


St. Louis : 


Seattle 


a/ 





1930 


: 1 951 : 






1930 : 


1931 


;1930 ; 


_1 931 . ; 


1330 : 


1931 : 


1930 : 


1331 




Cents 


: Cents: 


Cents: 


Cents: 


Cents: 


Cents 


: Cents : 


Cents 


Cents: 


Cents 


Gents: 


Cents 


UC L . 3 ; 


77 


• • 

: 53 ' 


75 


42 : 


85 ; 


69 


J ; 

: 30 : 


72 


\ 

90 : 


46 : 


76 




55 


ID 


75 


: 59 


73 : 


47 


82 : 


71 


: 7 c : 


78 : 


83 : 


50 


74 : 




54 




77 


: 59 ; 


( D 


, 


do . 


1 1 


: 1 J 


ou 


Q7 . 


•JCj 


( o 




59 


Ttn ■ 
ou : 


('O 


: be '. 


74 • 


52 • 


81 : 


75 


: 78 


8o 


: 87 : 


55 ; 


i o 




65 




71 


: 69 


71 




7 7 • 


^3 


70 • 


93 


82 : 


63 


71 ; 




76 


15 


G8 


: 72 




f\ '' ' 


f • 


O X 


68 • 


91 


82 : 


65 


68 




74 


20 : 


68 


: 67 


'JO 


^ P « 
<J Q , 




7R 


6R • 


82 


: 83 : 


61 • 


68 




67 


27 ; 


73 


: 64 


70 • 




7n 

( o 


77 


74 


80 


P4 • 


60 


70 




65 


Eec. 4 . 


73 


: 62 


71 ' 


54 


f o , 


77 

i f 


75 


73 


84 : 


58 


70 




64 


11 


74 


: 62 










• 76 


84 


: 85 : 


57 


: 63 




63 


18 


73 


: S2 


71 


53 


77 


74 


: 73 


: 82 


: 81 : 


58 


: 66 




64 


25 


: 72 


: 58 


70 


: 51 


76 


83 


: 72 


: 84 


: 82 : 


57 


: 65 




64 




:1331 


: 1332 


:1931 


:1332 


: 1931 


1932 


:1931 


:'l332'"' 


:1931 : 


1932 


:1931 


1952 




71 


: 58 


63 


51 


75 


7 


: 72 


: 83 


: 81 : 


56 


: 66 




65 


8 


: 71 


: 59 


: 63 


: 52 


: 75 


. 74 


: 72 


• 86 


: 78 : 


57 


: 65 




64 


15 


: 75 


: 61 


: 71 


: 53 


: 73 


: 77 


: 73 


: 65 


: 79 : 


55 


: 65 




64 


22 


: 72 


: 63 


: 53 


: 54 


: 77 


: 79 


: 73 


: 90 


: 80 


58 


: 66 




67 


29 


: 71 


: 51 


: 59 


: 51 


: 76 


: 77 


: 72 


: 85 


: 76 : 


55 


: 65 




64 


reb. 5 


: 71 




: 69 


: 54 


: 75 


: 78 


: 72 


: 85 


: 78 


57 


: 56 






12 


: 71 




: 69 




: 75 




: 73 




: 79 ; 




: 66 







a/ Weekly avera^^e of daily cash quotations basis ITo. 1 sac]:ed 50 days deliver^-. 



T iic United St at e_s_3ujT)lus as of Febr uary 1, 1932 

Any calculation of the current year's exfjortable surolus mast depend not onl;, 
upon estimates of ra'odu.:tion and carry-over, but also upon sjn estimate of the 
probable domestic utilization for t.e crop ./^ar. Lest year the total disappearajic^ 
of wheat including on allowaiice for a reduction in coni.'iercirl stocks of Hour 
(which Was very lari:;e last year) amounted to 731 million bushels includil^^• 77 
million bushels for seed and 654 million disappearance for food, feed and waste, 
(the latter includirig shipments of 3 nillion bushels to Alasjr.a, Hawaii and Porto 
Rico). Domestic disappearance l?„st year was unusually large because of heavy 
feeding of whea,t. Corn prices are lower this year as compared vith wheat, but the 
fact that wheat -iriccs theniselves are u^uch lower than in 1930-31 will tend to 
prevent tne feeding of wh^;at i rom being reduced much. Consequently, it seems 
likely that domestic disappearance for food, feed and loss /nay amoiint to about 

635 million bushels this year a^;ainst 654 million last year. This, it should be 
noted, is only a rc^ogh approximation. Seed requirem-^nts this year will probably 
be about 73 .nillion bushels. 



V/H-70 



-8- 



Using the pbovs fig^j.res for domestic utiliz.ation for the 1931-32 
season £iid a total supply of 1,21S million Dus.-els (which includes the carry- 
over not only of wheat grain hut .•:!lso coiruT.ercial flour stocks in terins of 
wheat) su-gests that the surplus for export and carry-over- as of Pehrnary 1 
is ap-oroximatelY 427 million hushels comoared with 357 million a yeaj" earlier. 
Allowing for a"ncrmf.l mini,mum" carry-over of 125 million oustiels would leave 
a surplus of 302 million "bushels svailahle for export as of Fehrusry 1 tnxs 
year compared v^/ith 227 million a year ago* 

It is to oe home in mind, of course, that this surplus nominally 
available for export i-s not all available in the current year. Such ajnounts 
as the Grain Stahilization Corporation is ccf.mitted to continue to nola on 
June 30 cm hardly he considered a part ,of tlie surplus ej/ailahle tor export 
durin:. the current season. Tnese supplies are not availchle lor export until 
disposed of hy the Grain Stahilization Corporation. Last year, it should be 
noted, the wneat carry-over not in tne hands of the Grain Stabilization 
Co-por;Hion was reduced to less then what has here been used as tne normal 
minimam". This was presumably due partly to arrangeiaents made by the u-ra-in 
Stabilization Cor-poration with millers for storage 'of their wneg.t, out ^^as also 
.due in part to the very abnormal relationship between casn prices oi wneat m 
the,la.tter part of the 1930-31 season and prices of futures for' the 1931 crop. 

It shoi;ld be noted that the^fig^ares given above are not computed on 
quite the saiae basis as those given in the last issue of V^orld ^^heat Prospects. 
The difference is that in the last issue the flour stocks tigures were not. 
included in the carry-over and hence in the total suoply oi wn-oat availaole lor 
the 1931-32 season, aaid also to the fact thaf shipments to Alaska, na:^aii 
end Porto Rico r.ave been included in domestic disappearance as tney are nov 
included in the usual statements of net exports. Detailed tigures oi supply, 
domestic utilization exports aaid surplus as of Pc-bruajry 1 are given m uie 
following table, ' 



T.able 5.- 'Tnert: Surplus of United States for ex])ort oxicl cr.rry-over as 

of S'ebru .ry 1, 19o0-ol end lSol-32 



Itera • 1 £30-31 


• 1931-32 


: Million 

Carry-over ('•licat anu. flour) : : 

In country clovr.tors and laills.... c./: 

Coinnercir.! stocks b/: 

In merchant ..aills end. elcvatois... c/ : 

Stor..d for otl.ers by r.era.ir'rLts : 


_bus/£els 

47 . 4 

: bO . 2 
: 109.3 
: 46.7 
: 14.7 

12,5 


: Hi 11 ion 


bushels 

31 .9 
30.5 
204.0 
: 21.8 
: 12.2 

: 18.4 


Ictal v/i". eat as grain : _ . 


290.8 


L 


318.8 


Flour (in t^rms of wheat) d/ : 


20.5 




: 6.9 




• 31_1._3___ 




: 325.7 




: 858.2 


! 


892.3 




1,169.5 ■ 




1 ,21S.0 


Domestic utilization: : 

Disappe-rcr-CG for food, feed and : 
Waste including shipments to Alaska, : 


73'l.3 


73.0 
635.0 




Surplus for export end cnrr^-ovcr : 


433.2 : 
81.2 


703.0 


708.0 
'510.0 
82.9 


Surplus for export rail cr.rr-— over , : : 


357.0 




427.1 



Compiled as xollows: 

a/ Based on returns to the bureou from crop re:jorters. 

b/ From Bradotreet' s visible supply 1899-19U0 to 1925-26; Bureau of ii^ri cultural 
Economics, 1927-^8 to 1931-32. 

c/ jDur^-u of tho Census fi.iures raised to represent all i.-erchant ihlls. 
d/ Fro.a Chicago Tally Trade Bulletin. 

ej Amount of &ecd used per acre from returns to the bureau from inQ.uiric-s sent 
to crop reporters, 

f/ From r ports of Porei.^n ."aid Domestic Commerce of the United States. 

'.'■iher.t Su rpluses of the Principal T/xporting Coun tri es 

As in the case of the Unitv.d States surplus, an^^ cr.lculation of surpluses 
for export ciid c,-rry«-over of the other orincipal exporting countries involves 
uncertainty due to a:\y inaccuracies which moy exist in the estimates of produc- 
tion, carrj^-ovor, e::ports "and the probable domestic -utilization of tiie crop. 
In r'Aditio"xi, if an attempt is made to .rrrive at tae surplus ox tne United States 
c?nd Coiiff^d-^, there is involved the uncertainty as to whether Canadicn grai"n 
stored in bond in the United States riid United States grain stored in bond in 
Cciio.da should be iucluded in addition to the surpluses derived for each of 
the two poultries separately, Ta.:in,, tne case of United States gx'ovm wheat 
rs -rxi cx.-;aple. If United States yfhe' t is shipped to Canada a^id stored 



WH-70 



-10- 



there, it iHr?;: or apv not have been included in the custoias flexures of exports. 
If v'heoX is consi^^ned from Dulut.i to Sufxalo bat ic stored in transit at 
some Canadieii nort, suc'i c?.s G-oderich, it presmaabl; would not be declared as 
an export. Consequently, when exports of United States t,rain from July 
through Ja^iuary ore subtracted irom the total surplus of United States grain 
as of July 1, such stocks nominally in route from Duluth to Buffalo v^^ould not 
be craong those subtracted and hence would be included in the figure of the 
surplus remaining in. the United States as of FeVrac/ry 1. Hence, adding such 
United States grain stored in Canada to the remaining surplus, of United States 
griiin would involve duplication. On the other hand, if tne wheat is shipped 
from Duluth ,?nd declared for e port, either to Canada or to some otner country 
via Canadc out stored temporarily in Canada, such grain should be added to 
the remaining surplus in the United States if one is to get at the total nnount 
of v/heat available for overseas shipment. ■ • ... 

A similar c[-j.c-stion, of :course, occurs in connection \:ith Canadian grain 
stored in the United States, it being impossible to be certain whether Canadieii 
grain stored £it Buffalo or some other United States market has or has not been , 
declared as a:i export from Ca.nada. In arriving at the fignires for the surplus 
for e.xjort and carry-over which follow, it has been assujned that tne least error 
will result if the United States grain in store in Canada and Ca^iadi.an grain 
in store in the United States are added to the remaining surpluses which are 
arrived s.t for es.ch co^ontry by subtra.cting net exports from their respective 
surpluses as of July 1 and A"agu.st 1. 

It should perhaps also be noted that th-ere i:.ay be some incompleteness in 
the customs fi.^ures for exports. This may occur through wheat bcin^ shipped 
from a United States port, such as I>nluth, in order to taJce advantage of 
storage space available in a Co/nadioai port. In such case, the shipper -may be 
uncertEiin as to the final destination of his grain, that is, whether it will 
finally be exported, or whether he will wish to return it to the United States. 
Under such circuinstances., the grain is likely to be consigiied from tiie United 
States port to some other United States port, such as Buffalo, a^d to be 
stored in transit lis the Canadian port. If the owner of the grain then decides 
to export thu wheat, he has the choice of shipping it on to Buffalo c^id out 
tiirough some United States port, or shipping it out througli Canada. I'l t.lie 
former case, it would be declared for export when it left Buffalo or ITow York. 
If, however, the destination of the grain were chpjiged and it were shipped 
out through Montreal, it seems distinctly doubtful whether the shipper would 
be likely ever to declare the grain for export, and hence the grain probably 
would not be included in the customs reports of United States exports. 

The total surplus of wheat available for export and carry-over in the 
United States, Cc-nada, Argentina, end Australia, computed as indicated above, 
as of February 1, rjnounted to 902 laillion bushels compared with 918 million 
a year previous. If to this is added United Kingdom port stocks and quantities 
of. wheat and flour reported afloat, the total surplus ar.ou:ats to 970 .nillion 
bushels as of February 1, 1932, against 973 million bushels a year previous. 



WH-70 



-1.1- 



It is si'jniiicx.t, 'iiowcver, th^;t ;nuca s>.v:ll-.r supplies r.pperx to be 
available in Art::entiaa, Australia, and Cr-.nada than were available a ;'ear 
earlier. Ti.p. Ar.-entine surplus is pla^ -1 at 122 laillioii bushels coiapared 
with l-^7 niilior. last year, while the Australian surplus is indicrted to be 
102 million cor.T^ared v.'ith 1-16, million ivvst year. Tue Canadian surplus is 
indicated to be 200 raillion busheJ.s coraor.red witn 236 million last ye?r. This 
gives a total for the three , countries (.:ct including Ganodian grain in store 
in the United States or United States .■ in in store in Canada) of 424 
million busnels cornered with 529 nil 11 on ..ushels £S of the sajne date last ye,?-r. 
■Tota.1 exports of these three countries for ,the months February to June inclusive 
of 1931 aiuounted to 263 iaillion bushels. The export of the s.ajiie ejnount of 
wheat from these countries during the montns February to June of this year 
would leave then with a remaining surplus on July 1 pi only 161 million bushels. 
Tnis ■./ould be 14 million busViels more than the amount which remained in Canada, 
alone on Jul; 1, 1931, while on the sa/ne .date Ar^zentina rnd Australia had 
surpluses of 61 million aiid 57 million b-ishels respectively. 

Table 6,- n'heat; Surplus for export and carry-over in the four principrl 
exportinf^ couritrics, United Kinf';dom port stocks, arid stocks 
afloat for United Kin^:dom, Continent .^nd orders, Ft^ibruary 1, 

1930-1932 



Feb. 1 



)ountr;^ or position 



United States, domiOstic fc];rain 

Canadian yrain 

Canada, domestic grain a/.. 

United States ^-;rain. 

Argentina c/ 

iiustradia e/ 

Total 

United riin^,dom port stocks: 

Wheat 

Flour (.-^.s wheat) 

Afloat for Uviitod Kin,;:;dom 

Afloat lor Continent 

Afloft for orders 

Total f/ 

3- rand total 



1930 


i 1931 


= 1932 


i!illion 


liillion 


: i/iillicn 


bus^ _el_3_ 


j-u^3]}el_s 


: bushels 


"350 


357 ' 


427 


36 


: 27 


22 


200 


236 


: by' 200 


8 


5 


: 29 


90 


147 


• d/' 122 


72 


146 


: 102 


756 


918 


: 902 


14 


IS 




1 


: 2 




11 ! 


11 




13 


! 14 




13 


12 




52. : 


55 




308 


973 : 


970 



.vi' 1 - Jrily 5] 
tion and net 



a/ Years 1930 and 1931; carry-over Jul;, 31 olus net exports, Febra 
b/ Carr;--over July 31, 1931, plus production, less domestic utiliz 
ey^ports, Au_uEt 1 - i-jovember 30 and total exports during December and January, 
£./ Carr;/-over, J anuar,'- 1 plus production, less domestic utilization end exports 
durinp January. • • 

d/ Ofiicial report a;.s of February 6. ■ 

^/ Car^^'-over Eecember 1 plus production les:3 domestic utilization and exports 
during- J a:'V.;.a.ry and Februar;^. 
f/ Broonhall's estiiiiate. 



WH-70 ■ -12- 



Table Cariada,: Distribution of the wheat cro;o, 1930-51 and 1931-32 



i tern 


1930-31 


1931-32 




• X J Www 


1 'Yh'I 




. UU.oIj.WJLo 


UU-fcxiUX S 


C f^VVr—ivc-T J^ilv 31 


111 nQK 


* -, — r-r "7 n ^ 

. , w 0<-< 


Prnductio'i • . . 




'^HA 1 x'i4. 


DoiTieTtlP ijt.i 1 i vr ti nn 




' / 1 PO nnn 

» cJ./ XC/^ J Www 




3Q7 7fi7 


't1 7 npp; 


l''''pt. ■ (^TTiO T h '-^ /h r- ' t, n"n rl flrmr"' 








PO 4^7 ♦ 


1 4 P36 


S CO t • . • ... 


^1 1 03 


16 Rl 6 


Oct. ... . 


33 41 f) 


21 407 






I 2 y ) 0 0 0 






: b/ 24,337 






b/ 10,965 






200,132 




;d/, 235,769 





a/ As ru ported in the Monthly Review o:c the Vifheat Situation, JanuEiry 26, 1932. 
b/ Total exports. 



c_/ As computed xrom carry-over on July 31, 1930 plus production, less domestic 
utilizc.tion end net exports, Au,3ust - January. 

d/ As computed from carry-over on July 31, 1931 plus net exports February- July. J 

■A-ustralia ^ 

The .Australian surplus rcmo.ining. on. February 1 for export and carr:^-ovwr 
appeared to be £,bout 102, million bushels, v/hich was about 44 million, less tnc-n th;-/. 
of a year erj-lier. Exports from Feoru;. :'"7 to November of 193.1 totaled o,bout 132 
million bushels which was about 30 million bushels more, than the indicated, surplu 
for export and carry-over on Februar;!/' 1, 1932, 



Table 3.- xlustrrJia: . Pistribution of . the. v;h.eat crop, 1930-31 caid 1931-32 





I tern 


: 1930-31 


: 1931-32 






: 1 ,000. bu-shels 




wv.iO bushels 


Carry-over, old crop, 








13,500 






: , . , 212,629 




, 170,966 






: 224,629 


184,466 


Domestic utiliZc?tion 




; a/ 52,000 




5iLt.000 


Surplus for export 




172,629 : 




132,466 


Exports 














9,054 : 


8,856 






: 17,858 


b/ 


21,652 


Balance, Feb. 1 




145,717 


101,958 



a/ As reported by A^^ricultural ComiiLissio..cr Paxbon. 
b/ Unofficial. 



'ira-70 



-13- 

Tlie V/lieat Situation in Argentina 3.J 



Crop conditions and estii'nates of production 

The harvesting and tareshin^ of Argentina's 1951-32 v/he-.t crop ii:ive 
"been -oracticall--^ corapleted in the ".Drovinces of Cordohf,, Santa Fe and Entre 
Hios and tlie territory'' of La Paapa. In tlie province of Buerios Aires, narvestm^ 
lias "been f i:iished and threshing- will soon iDe ended. Hie weather durinj tlie pa.st 
month was exceptionally- favorahle for harvesting, and threshin':,. There v/ore a 
few scattered showers the first week of Januar;' and li^^ht f^ener: 1 rains on 
Januarys 12 and JaiuL;.r,7 24 and 25, "bv.t these rains were not heav;- enovi^h to 
cause an interruption of an" importance in harvest and thras"iin,;^-. 

I'lo official estimate of the wheat crop has "bee/, issued since Decenber 4, 
1931, when the crop was placed at 213,623,000 "bus'iels. In view of the ^ood 
yields "bein^; obtained in nan;;' parts of the province of Suano s Aires, souie private 
estimates are now in e:xess of 220,000,000 "bushels, the figures rximiin;^ :s hi^h 
as 233,800,300 "bushels. Apparently the dana'^e occasioned by frosts on ITovci'iiber 
8 and 9 was not as severe as was anticipated earlier in the season, pJthou£;h 
there are, of course, saio localities where frost did reduce the yield consider- 
ably. On the whole, the cro- is considorel of ^ood qf^lit--, this bein{;i 
espocia-lly true of the wheat in the southern part of the cere^i.1 zone, corr...ionly 
spohen of as the Sahia Slanca section. The specific woi£;ht of much' of tha wheat 
t,':as season is e:::coptionall. hi.;,h. 

Surplus for export and carry-ov^r ~ 

rne Ministry of A^j,rici-.ltx-je in Argentina nas recently issued a report on 
the probable distribution of the 1932 crop. Conpc-,rabl'j fii^iijros .^re given for 
the 1931 crai. 



1931 



1, )00 bushels 1,000 bu.shcls 
. 15,472' 18,305' 
235,960 218,623 
251V432' " ■234,928' ' 

93,328 95,533 



Carry-over of old crop on Jc.n.l ., 
Frodviotion . . , . . . . . . 

Tot:..l supply . ..... 

Do.-iestic utilization 

Surplus for export /carry-over . . „ . 158 ,"ib4" " IsVjWs" 
ilxi^orts, Jan..l - Feb. 5 a/ 13,353 17,096 

Balance, iVb. 6 . 144,751 122,299 

_a/ Official report of exports during Zj>xi\>jxTj plus trade report of 
exports, Fobru^.ry 2-5. 

iDxport novcunts 

li'ev; wheat has boon movinc to the ports quite r.-pidl this season. 
Ordinsiril;;,-, little no'.7-crop wheat is exported in Doce.foor, b-at soac 2,000,000 to 
2,500,000 bushels v/ere shipped in Decenber, 1931. D-.\rin;^ th^ first tv/enty-one 
days of Jcjnuary this year 7,972,000 bushels (uiiof f icial ) were exported as conp-.red 
with 5,363,0 '0 b\ishels (unofiicial) for tlie sL.iil .r 3-v;^elc period l-.st y^car. 

C-over:uicnt control of ■_r-:.\xi fxitures m: rket 

The Argentine C-overn-aoiit issued a decree on J.j.ra.r-^ 26, 1932, placin^^' the 
Office of R-'oral 3conorny and St tistics, of tlio Ilinistry of ^.'.ericultujro , in contio 1 
of the {^rcdn^ futx.res marlcets in Euenos Aires and Rosario. 

Z.J Based on report of .i^ricultural Connission::r Cilonn 5. H^.y, Buenos .\ires, 
January 27, 1932. 



70 



-14- 



-lost of the Shanghai flcur ..ills liad rcsu .ed o-perations Id:/ ^ohvjB.Ty 12 
after a s^-iort criod of "'.2:oncral inactivity, according to a cabled report frrra 
A-ric^alti:rnl Coaaaissioncr Dawson at Slian£>iai. Little flour nas been moving out 
0-7 cii, cit r d to the disrtvotcd shi-o-in£ conditions. Iloxu' stocks arc ir.odcrate 
and -)ricGs have advanced slio.itl:/ as' a result of the dist^irhed condi ;icns ii>- 
fluencin^, the local laaricet. The flour exchange rcraains closed. 

Vor^^ little forcit^n co...iiViCrcio.l -heat has ocen dischara;ed at Shan£:hai 
hecause o/ the congestion o.t the wharfs. The currency situation with reference 
to th.- native oanlcs ..lakcs the transacting of husincss vcr^^ difficult a.na it is 
thou^-ht th-t the delivery of sonc foreign wheat ^vhich has hcen purchased :riay 
h.- hole hack hecaijsc of the uncertain conditions prevailing m Sxia.nghai. ^inc 
lack of business has rnadc it difficult to sec -rc Quotations for loroign wncat 
hut ^■^rices co^u-are closely v:ith those aaoted a month ago. rTo native wncat .xas 
arrived in Shanghai for some ti :e h ..t stocks of foreign wheat arc evidently 



svifficiexit to cover rcquircraents for the 



next 



i"cw wcckSi 



About 200,000 tons of Australian wheat has been purchased but no new 
buisiness is now being done. 

The ^lood Relief CoiTirnission wishes to sell further ojnomits of the wheat 
.purchased in ATierica for relief -ran^oscs. According to the original P^f ^ 
2,500,000 bushels of this wheat was to be sold to pcmit tne cxchar-gc oi otn-.r 
grains. 



Danub e _B asin .jllc^.Si tuat ioiL DilXi ng_Jamiai:i_ 



The most significaxxt facts relative to the wheat situation of the Danube 
3a sin a/re: 

(1) .ka estimated winter v/hoat acreage sown in the fall of 1931 of 17,674,000 
acres as follows: 



Country 



Bulgaria 
?jangary 
Suv:ania 
Yugoslavia 



'otal 



Official 
Estivnatc 
1930 
Acres 

2,843 
4,075 
7,870 
5,265. 

20,051 



Danube Basin Office 
Estimate 
1930 1931 
Acres Acres 



2,819 
4,186 
6,914 



2,814 
3,872 
5,987 
5,001 



19,333 



17,574 



These totals co:.narc with 19,333,000 acres seeded ^^^-^ ^^^^ cOO^^^res 
according to the estimate of the Danube Basin Office, .or -.-itn ^0,0.1 COO acr.s 
as °e-oo.tod b^^ the ilinistrics of Agriculf.re of the respective cou.ntr..cs. xne 
;:d;;u;n is ^e prmci^any to adverse weather conditions 

and December althou^ economic conditions have also exercised a minor depress- 

ing influence. 

a/ Eased on report of iiss'U Agricultural Coi.imissioner, J. Bernard Gibbs, 
Belgrade, Yugoslavia, Jan-J-ar^^ 21, 1932. 



H - 70 



The rcdv.cti.: 11 in c.croa^vc is least in Sulgarir. O-iid greatest in Rruaania. 

(3) S .- rcn-.l in^ctivit^ of loc£-J narlccts lies 'oocn prolon^jcd into Jairoar^^ as a 
conncqucnco r,i lev/ doncstic coiaswnpti n and languid c:ocrt demand as v/cll as 
small cclivcrics from farras on accoui-.t of ^ad condition of roads. 

(3) Prices r.'.avc remained ;practicall" unchanged iDocaasc lo'.v domestic r.nd crpcrt 
dcm-^nd v,'-s offset "by small deliveries from farms. 

(4) jT-.orts have fallen off on aceeunt tf seasonal in^ctivit- of n-rkcts 
offcctcd -o:; difficulties of river na-i£^ati-n, as ^7cll as on accoir^t of res^rric- 
ti :.s r.-l.-tivc to imports, in :,eneral, and to internati nal cxchan-c of c^orrai- 
cios. 

Markets and Prices 



^Iic -asv.-l holidry i:n-ctivit" of tlic D'nra>)e Bosin rhcat market; 



''olnxae 



transac- 



^^rolon ed frvm Dec r.fo-;r 15, 1951 to Janaar:' 11, 1032. Tkc 
ti-ns • 'as iiateriallr redacod 'because of fulfillmjat of cxoort contracts made 
earlier in the scascn, caxtaih.ir.at of arrivals due .to suspended nr/viicti n on 
the Donvioe and its tributaries, as v/ell rs to "bad conditi-ai of countr- roads, 
coupled -.".'ith reduced demand caused by the economic crisis. 

Prices cn Danube Basin m.arkets from the m.iddlc of December to the middle 
of Janu-a-2^ -./ere influenced by reduced demands from importing countries o nd by 
week local do. nnd for home consumption, the depressing effects of v;hich^7.-cro 
practierlly eouoterbar-necd by small arrivals to marlzets, interruption in ^ 
Danube F.iver no.vigati:-.n and by the expectation of revived eiroorts durin^^the 
spring months. I 



rices v/ere maintained, therefore, until about Joomary 11, 



;/hen a slight improvement, ^/hich was of short duration, hovover, ^as noticed 



Table 0. Price ^^or boishel for './heat of comparable grades on principal 
Danube" Basin m.arkcts, m-nthly October and November, vcekly 
for December and first half of Januarys 1931 - 1932 a/ 



r-eriod 

1931 

Oct 

Nov 

13©^^ wS** • 

12 

19 

26 

Dec. average. 
153.-' 

Jan. 2 

9 

16 



Bulaaria by 
price s at Bo ^urgas 

Cents ^ 

5V 
U 



il 



Hangary, prices 
Bud ape st c/ _ 



Cents 



Rur.iania, priced Yugoslavia e/ 
at_ Br ail a d/ 

Cents 



47 


45 : 


84 


57 


g/ 50 : 


84 


65 


il 


84 


65 


^ 


84 


66 


■■ a 


: 84 


66 


: ^ 


; 85 


65 


: h/ 


84 


65 


■ h/ 


: 85 


64 


: 


: 84 


63 


: 84 


market ballet ins isooed 


by the Bouxgs-s 



i2ric es__at_NQYi-Jl:'^d 
C ents 



Bo^orse. Budapest prices to December 31, 1 31 from "Pester Lloyd", a p-odap est 
economic journal, from Janua.ry 1, 1"52 from official daily biilletin of the 

(G-ontinued) 



■■;h - 70 -IS- 

Taole .-. Trice -or '.ushel for T/heat of comparalDle grades on princi-pal 
^•anuoe Basin ..larkots, aonthly Octo^oor and ITovcmJcr, vrsclcly 
for ^.ece-;oer and first half of Januarj^, I9':i - 1952 aj ( Contimie- ) 

3i^ds;.7^ a^^Ii^xchange. Eraila -ricos fro:n "Ar-as" , a B cn^^rc^t economc 
journal; ^-Qvi-Sad pricos from "Trr,ovinsl:i Glasnik" , a Bel -race comnercial 
joi;.rnpl . ' . 



I 



■•■/ Si-lc averages of dail- trices for co:A;:araol3 grades in local c . rrcnczr am 

converted toVitad States dolla-s oy asins exchani:o rates on Zurich i^xcnangc. 
Quotaoion of Iiu:-:arian Pongo on tho Zurich Exchange ceased on r!ovc:.:oer ol 
-^ron -'ovc ibor'21 the average November sold ^en:.o exchange raxe nas oecn astfid 
for co^iverting Budapest vhcat -:riccs into dollars. Budacest v/ncat prices are 
quoted in £old pcn^o since August 1. 

h/ Best i;rade 51.4 -ounds p^r Dusnel, 2 -er cent -orci^rn natter. 

cj Lo^er lisza ol.4 - S2.2 pouncls -^er h.shel, no foreign n.atter._ ^ 
the ahove ma^et price the ourehas.r has to ^^a;^ 48 cents -oor r^r 
scntins the value of the -rain ticket, from which the larraer recci^.-s cent s. 
For .T^eat vhich is e:coorted the 48 cent grain . ticket expense is rciundcd l^y 
the G-ovcrnment, 

d/ Best .^rade, 51.4 - 62.2 "oounds per V:.shel, 2 per cent foreisn natter, the 
-orice includes 15 cents per cushcl export ;eremram. 

c/ Tiszo 61.4 - 52.2 ^oounds -er hushel, 2 ^.er cent foreign matter until Ji;ly 5 . 
^ron Julv 6 forward Government Monopoly purchase price Tisza 6. _^^o ands p.r 
hushel' 1 -oer c^nt forei-n matter. One half of the price is paia in casn, 
o"e Joirth in Goverr^ent^onds -cyo^le 1 nonth after th^" purchase is made 
and one fo-urth in honds payaole 3 m.onths after the purcnasmg. 

f/ Ho transactions in 61.4 loounds per oushel wheat v;ith 2 per cent "reign r^tc: 
^ prices for 50.5 pounds per oushel .^heat .ith 5 per ^-^-^rl^.^i^^^jy ^^li 
Hovemcer average: 52 cents; -eek ending DecemlDer 5: 4l c.nts Dec moor 
cents; December 19; 40, cents ; Dec e:.ber 26, ^ cents;Decemocr ^^^f ^ 

V7.ek ending January 9; 42 cents; J^.n-ry IS; 45 cents. Prices irom 0 = ^°^^^ f 
-.hen the Government :,:ono-ooly eeme into force refer only .o sales maae oy the 
Goverm^nt Bureau to .exr^-ortcrs for immediate export. 

.7 Refers to -radc Sl^slpounds -er oushel, 3 per cent foreign matter as there 
^ w;;; no registered transactions in '-heat of 61.4 pounds .er^^nel . . c. 

cent foreign matter.. The average for Noveml^er covers tnus only .n. l.st ..vo 
\7eeks 'of this month.- _ , 

h/ Mo ouotctloas for 61.4 pon.d. .or tuohol v-.e.t. The -""^^.f^'j/^: ^ J^^'tto 
^ ^=r W.ol wheat durlns the v,.=ok onding Doccnbor 5 50 cuts a.^MStto 

.;ok ending Dceonfocr 12= the .Ter^io 48 oonts; ""^.^.^J^^^-'^f^^f^^^.^^fc 
46 oehto; -"ook ondlns Deeetfoor 26 : 47 cents; Bcconoer av....._e ^.8 ecnts, 
cndins January 9: « cents; end v,ook ondins JamiaiJ- lo:^ 4o cent.. 



..'K - 70 



-17- 



In Siil^" ^.rin, ;;hc C-o^' .rni.i. r.t Borcau piu-clir.sod -hcrt frora ip.riiicrs 
67 c-ntrj -.cr 'ouchcl y . Of this rice, 70 ■)er cent •..'a.G j^aid incr.sh, tho root 
in ta::<-:tion '^onds. Salos by the Go Vermont Bojro":.! to cxoort.,rs - 'ere rncdc at 
prices that iraorovod sli litly tovrards Janua.i'y 11, and decreased ac.ain on Jrnuary 
13. T-\C: C-0"'.:rn~iont Bureau =-:old "./heet to r.iille, for ho.ic co;':siai^i ■tiexi, r t 78 cents 
per hushc-1 . 

In Mun ary prices v/er.: srLstri.icd as a result of excc '.t iu ■ llj- e.irllde- 
livL;rieG frOiU far.ncis to :aarl;etc. Ec^inain \.'ith Dec^^focr 15 ■■iriccs c:dii':itcd 
a constant tho .i h vcr:/ slov/ jpv/ard tendency v-hich sto-rped on Janaar:/ 4. After 
that date pcssi; iis:n, result'.n^ fro:.! lack of cx ,ort de .and :-.:^d lo..' h.jmc consuup- 
tion, caueed prices to decline until ■ January 11, v/hcn spccalativc operations 
resulted in a sliaht iinprovonent v/hich v/as interrupted on Jenuary 13 aixl 14 and 
started a'ein on January 15. T.'iese fluctuations v/erc aseocirted '.'ith develop- 
n^nts in the '.".\ar Debt arohl .r.i. 

In Su.iania prices increased until tho heginnixia of J-enuary as a rcsLilt 
of reduced arrivals, when the depr ssin^ effects of inactive oicport nai-hets 
counterbalanced tho influence of ohe lack of arrivals and "orices v;crc maintained 
on a level. 

In Yu^-oslavia the Frivilu^;ed Export Com ;aiv' still maintains the hi'h 
Crovcrixient "orice and pays one half of tho 'iricc in cash and the other half in 
Govern.ient bonds. Under the plan one half of the axAount je.id in '^onds ney b c 
converted to cash -./ithin one month after the date of purchase ar^d the remainder 
v/ithin three months f rem t he date of -mrcliase. The sales price of first class 
Tisza "."heat to mills was $1.29 per bushel daring December and tlx first hrlf of 
Ja-nuary, and lo'.;cr grades v.-erc sold at aro"ueid ,$1.20. This corrcG":'onds to a flour 
price of about $3.19 per 100 pounds "jTor the v.'hitc gra.des. 

'Il-ik-H ^lea t Seedi nas for th e 19 52 Crop 

The acrea^;c of •./inter \/hcat seeded in the Danube Basin co^aiitries d"arir^- 
-h.e fall of 1951 is estimated at 17,674,000 rcrcs. This compares v/ith 1 9, 353,0 00 
acres pl'^nted in the fall of 1930, as estimated by tne Danube Basin Office, or 
'./ith 20,051,000 '"-.crcs as estim.ated by the vario . s Ilinistries of Apri crJL t ex o in 
Dr nub c c ou:e.t r i c s . 

"'inter wheat s3cdi;'.£;s in the fall of 1931 attained only ..-^1.-12 per cent 
of the area seeded in the fall of 1930, as cstrmatcd by the Danube Basin Offic, 
or 88.15 per cent of the 20,051,000 acres 1950 :/intcr v^heat so'7in2;s as cstin-jatcd 
by Iliniostries of Agric^xLt^u'c in Danube B.asin co^mtries. The acr( ae;e redaction 
is lar.e;ely the res"alt of ^Jjif avorablc "leather co. editions in Runriaia v.'hich rendered 
impossible further ■.-inter seeding inmost parts of -..he co~intry at the bcgirxin^ 
of December, • hereas in "norrr.al y^ars ■.■inter seeding: conti'.aies "UL'-til Christmr.s. 
The cconoi.iic situation played a li'mited part in the rodviction of the v; inter v/hc at 
ar.-a bccaasc Govcrn:".;ent aid granted to v/heat marketinp in all Danube countries 
except Hunpar;" ('./here the 1930 and 1931 corn crops ".""ero s-:-ort) increased the 
"orices of "./heat above that of corn, 

a/ Price for 59 eounds :;er ba.shel "..'heat, with no rye and forcipn leattcr. Ibr 
each additicnal kilo{;;r.?..i of hectoliter -.vciriit above 59 pounds ":er bushel, an 
adequate price increase is made and for additional foreign matter or rye, pric c 
deductio'ns are ma.de. 



i7E- 70 



-18- 



'.Thcct prices in Hun.;;;,-'.r-- v/erc rclo-t i\'cl7 Su'^.tisf .-ctorv ■thro:.i-"_lT.o"at the 
poriod d-T-ri r: vfliicli the Liall; of th; croo :7as nprk:etL;d. 



Tc^olc 10. 



]sti;.ir:tod ocrea c ■•^Ir.ntcd ia 



D-^.naDc Easin countries cor.;;;' red 







Foil 






D"~!.nu'Ov: E'^ sin 


Coivntr;/ 


Jail s-eodin/;^ 


Office csti- 




1931 


rr_atcs c.s p or 






Oct. 22, 1931 




l_,00g acr j_3_ 


1,000 acres 


Eul,2aria 


2,814 


2,819 


Huncarv 


. 3,872 


4,186 


Fauionia 


5,987 


6,914 


Yufjoslnvia 


5,001 


5,414 


D.anu'oG Easin 


• 17,674 


'• 19,333 



fai; 



1:'51 in S"DOCified 



til fall -lantin-":s in 1350. 



scedin- 1930 



Officirl cstira:'.t3s 
of Ministries 
0 f A-",ric-'alturc 



■ 1 .000 a cres 

2 , 843 
ay -^,075 
hj 7,870 
c/ 5,253 



20 , 051 



4 



Goimiled as follo'./s: 

1951 plantings estimated t)"/ Danulie Easin Office. Fall scedina in 1950: 
Those cstinated "by Danul)e Easin Office as per Cctolior 22, 1931, fron EanulDc 
Easin TJlioat Re-oort No. 11, p. 4, Taole 2. Official estimates: E-ol "aria 
from "E^allctin Ilonsuel dc Statistiquc" , pu'clijlicd "by the ELil^^arian Central 
Eurear-- of Statistics, issue of April 1931. Hungary: "Vetesck Mlasa", 
official crop re-oort of the Hungarian I.-Iinistry of AGricultvn-e, issues fron 
Juno 11 to iIovonl)or 13, 1931 and Danuto THiGat Reioort I-To. 11, Taole 2. (Sce 
footnote 1 to the -'rGsont tal)le). Ru\;ania: fron "S-olaitin Infonnativ" 
official puDlicction of the Ruaanian Ilinistry of A.";ric''jilture, issue of 
Dece.Aber 1, 1931 and issue of June 15, 1931, (Seo footnote 2 to the pres- 
ent ta'iolc,) Yu{-oslavia: from data putlishcd by the Statistical Division of 
the Yufcoslavian Ministry of Ai:;,Ticulture, in "Politiha" Eolprade Journal, of 
Novc!.il)cr 21, 1931, and Danusda '.heat Report lie. 11, Taole 2, (See footnote 
3 to the pres;nit tahlc.) 

a/ Ohtaincd "by deductions of an cstim.ated acrc.a.i:e for sprin^;; v/hcat of 
54,000 acres (Soo Danusda TJlicat Re;oort No. 11, Taolo 2.) from officially reported 
total planted v/hc.at acroaf;c of 4,129,000 acres. 

'oj Obtained hy deduction of the acreage for s:.rin^ wheat of o94,000 acres 
from "Euletin Inf ormativo" , June 15, 1931) fro:.i officially reported total planted 
v/heat acroa;c of 8,564,000 acres. 

cj Obtained by dcdviction of -an estimated acrcapc for s-^rii-.r^ -/heat of 
131,000 acres. (Seo Danusda TTncat Report No. 11, T?ble 2) from officially reported 
total lolanted wheat acreage of 5,394,000 acres. 



In the Balkan countries the pcas.^nts v/ho farm the laraer port of the 
arable lands arc not equipped to' Gnsa{tG in diversified famin;!' o^- ^ scrJ.c suffic- 
ient to materially affect the v/hcat acreage. 



V.'H - 70 



-19- 



In 3ul, r>.ria rct-'orns o"btair.od Vj the ITation^l Sank: of B'u_lc;aria fron over 
90 -.'cr cent of the national territory cho-; that the acreage of v/inter v/hcat 
planted in the fall of 1331 v/as 93 per cent of the cicroa£e seeded in the fall 
of 1930, i. e. atout 2,814,000 acres. 

V'inter v/hcat acrca;'^c, in 'Ranz^Tj , varies only s 11^1^-^17 fron one 'jobx to 
o.nothor. Adverse v/eather conditions are at present thoUt;;,:ht to have resulted 
in a cu-rtaili.iont of tho './i-.tcr v/hcat aci^af^e not c::cocdinr; 5 per cent. The 
acreage of '.'inter '.vhcat seeded in the fall of 1 51 is estiaated at 3,872,000 
acres. The condition of the v/inter -'acat is satisfactory, no inportor.t frost 
or insect c.aric.{jes were reported as yet, t ho ada, winter v/heat is not covered v;ith 
snov;. 

The acreafjc of v/intcr '.vhcat sor/n in E'anania in the fall of 1951, is 
placed provisionally "by the Danuhe Basin Office of the United States Dcpartrcit 
of AGriCTjltiirc at 5,987,000 acres, a/. This, if corpared v/ith 6,914,000 acres 
sov/n in the fall of 1930 (according to the Dannhe Basin Office) indicates a 
reduction of 13.4 per cent or if conparod v/ith 7,870,000 acres (accordin/^- to 
official estimates) indicates a rednctic;^ of 23.9 per cent. Trade sonrccs indi- 
co.to tnrt tho 1951-32 --'inter v;heat area ^_ocs not, at the r.ost, exceed 6 , 400,000 
acres. The condition of the crop is "Satisfactory". 

In Yu^'oslavia the acreage of v/inter wheat seeded in the fall of 1931 is 
placed at 5,001,000 acres as compared v/ith 5,414,000 acres sown in the fall of 
1930 (as estimated "by the Danuhc Basin Office) or v/ith 5,263,000 acres. (Offic- 
ial estinatc.) The reduction is about 5 per cent and is "based upon returns 
obtained "by an important ^rain firm from correspondents throu^^hout the entire 
countr7/. Other trade estim.ates rr.n^^e fron 5 to 12 per cent. The condition of 
the crop is satisfactory'', 

DcvcloTjncnts in Gove rnment Aid 

C-ovoriments in the Danuoe Basin continue their atten-^s to facilitate 
V7heat nsirkctinc, A project for marketing v/heat accordini;;; to a unifor/i ^olan hy 
Runania, Bulgaria and -.erha'DS Yugoslavia has been revived. This project contem- 
plates the utilization of cooperatives : the medium through V7 hi eh cereals v/ill 
be exported under the control and patrcnaigo of the respective Govcrnnents. It 
is prox^osed to hold an intcr-Balkan conference at Buchf-rcst in the nenr futnrc 
to consider practical details. Such a project ^7ill be opposed by the grain 
dealers many of v;hoa are foreigners representing French, Gerr.-.an, and other inter- 
ests, v/ho are fim.ly entrenched, particvlarly in. Eunania. The practical success 
of such a project is questionable. 

International trade agreements based on the principle of preferential 
tre.at.nent seeir. to have lost r.uich of their practical value because m.ost importing 
covnitries have placed restrictions upon exporting currency. To overcome this 
dif f ic-iolty , "clearing agreements" ha.vc b-en concluded that tend to lessen the 



a/ According to the Ririanian Ministry of Agriculture, 4,986,000 acres v/ere sown 
to v/intcr v/hcat up to November 30, 1931. This fi^jore is based on incomplete .end 
provisional returns received from county agricultural agents and from Chambers of 
Agriculture, The provisional estimate of cor office includes a 20 per cent addi- 
tion to the above estimate to cover v/hcat acreage in districts f ror. v/hich no re- 
ports vrerc received by the Ministry of Agriculture, 



v;h - 70 



-20- 



dan.-cr of adverse trade ^oalancos, and that do not in-olvc, rs a r^Jlc, the acV^l 
intcrchor-c of currencies or securities Dctuccn those countries that produce 
agric^altuJrl i^roducts and those that produce manufactured {..ocds. These "clearing 
rp-recv.ents" are tascd on the principle th«at all Inport-cxport transactions 1)0 
cleared t-rou h the National Bah^is of the t^ro contractiuG countries. T.iis is 
illustrpted h- the f ollov/iiv discusisicn of the a-rceacnt hotwecn iVistria and 
Huncarv ^7: .ich recentl7 aopcarcd in the "?c-tcr Llo^d" of Budapest. 

"The Hi^n-prian purchaser of Austrian rpods vjoys for the co/.sihnAont uith 
■oenr-o to the clcoring account, ^/hich the Han,:arian National Bank has opened for 
the^Austrian Hational Barl. which, in turn, accepts the specific pa;,nnent xor tte 
credit of the AJ-strian seller." 

"The Aastrian ^mrchaser of Eumsarian goods poys for the consigrmoit Trith 
schillings to the clerxing account, which the Austrian National Bank has opened 
for the Hungarian National Bank, which in t^orn acce^Dts the specific ppynent for 
tiio credit of the Hungarian seller." 

The anount of ^engos "oaid the "ungarian purchaser of Austrian goods, 
valued in schillings or vice versa, is colculated accordi-^ to exchange rates 

arroed :on D- the two National Banks. The ^strian seller can clar:: pa;;ncnt 

i-^ schilli--s'' for the .;oods he has consigned to an Hungarian purchaser only ^ _ 
when there are sufficient fu..ds to cover his clain in the clearing accoui^o wnich 
the Austrian Nrtional Bank has opened for the Hungaricui Nationa. Banir cna vice 
versa. 

"In tho cpso of .rain, the A-^strian National Bank opens for the Hungarian 
National Barlc^a special^'' Grain account' into v^hich i^strian schillings are pai^ 
h-r iP--^rters for the' H^a:igari an grain that they purchase. The Han^arian l.Xxo.^i 
Bai-ic nays chc Eun-arian exporter in pengo out in an^^ one nonth aa-^ not uay out 
nore Ihrn tie -.-n-chase ->rice of 15,555 short tons. (551,000 husnels of oO .c.-c.s. 
^IsZ; i;;uired that Austrian goods of the val .e of 16,535 snort tons ef gx^n 
be i:r.or.ed ^nto Hungary hut the Hungarian N^^tional Bank r.ay l°^:^''t^r!^':^f^l;" 
Natio'nal BaiiLc to T)laco to its credit any foreign currency tnat it n^y . c quirt, to 
cover the srle price of the grain exported." a/ 

Such an arrangement tends to ecjialize e:-:,orts and inyoorts hetween the 
two contracting countries. It is a modern form of harter tnat ^ ^^^^Jz^^^f ^ 
a develot)ment of exoorts although it.ic a remedy against com-ol eoS c essation of 
?oreI.n trade, provided that the economic organization of the_con racting coor. 
' tries is sufficiently different (industrial as opposed to ffi-^^'^'^^''^"^^^^ 
warrant a nomal exchange of goods. It lays stress upon the natural f onor^^ 
interdenendency of not too distant countries and reduces competition x rom txaose 
exJorUng countries whose import trade hears little or not reciprocal relatierv 
ship to- the country to which they export. 

Difficulties experienced hy Government relief organizations on account of , 
lack of capital continued during the period uii^^er review. 



sj Evidently this provision is made in order to huild the foreigr. credit cf 
tLo Hungaria; National Banlc and does not oenefit the Hungarian grain e^rporter 
exce-ot that he is not ooliged to wait for paytnent of his grain until tne val^c 
of th-^ goods cx:ported have oecn covered imports from Austria as is the case 
with othor Hungarian exporters. 



Mil-YU -•-■1- 

Ho detailed iniorrac.tion is availaolc conccrn'tn^^ t he coLmcrcial af.;roemcnts 
made by the BTalga.rian G-ovcrnrnent with Austria but nc^3'otir3tions are in progrocs for 
the concliision of a "clearing agrceriont" which deals largely v/ith the tobacco trade. 
The C-ovcrrjnt^nt Grain ?u.rcha3ing Bureau has co.itinocd ojr-rations under the provi-0 
sions of the recent law establiching a grain monopoly. 

The Hungarian- G-en.ian commercial treaty was published on Docenbcr 2 5, 1931. 
It provides for a 25 per cent redaction of the import customs tax on Hungarian 
vmoat ; the enforcement of this stipulation, hovvcvcr, has been suspended until the 
consent of the "most favored nations" shall have been obtained. 

Negotiations for a Czechoslov,3le-IIungarian commercial treaty still continue. 
Their concl-acion is hindered by political considerations. 

Hungary concluded the f irst "cleaning agreement" in the Danube Basin with 
Switzerland. This ajreement becaxae valid on December 1, The Agreement with Aus- 
tria caiiie into force on December 15. The agreements with Rumania and Italy are 
not yet in operation. 

The Austro-Kungarian agreement is considered to have been follov/ed by go od 
results. The exchange of goods between the two countries has increa.scd since 
December 1, and terms of pa^nncnt have also improved. It is reported that Austria 
ha.s covered its bread requirement almost exclusively w ith Hungarian v;heat since 
the middle of December, As indicated above, the Aiistro-Eungarian a.grccment f o ro- 
seos that a m^onthly ajiiount not exceeding the value of 16,535 short tons (551,00 0 
bushels of 60 -)oundg) shall bo paid to the Hungarian National Bank by the Austrian 
National BarHc in any foreign c^arrency v/anted by the Hungarian National Baiik. Quan- 
tities of cereals imported in excess of the above quota will be settled in acco rd- 
ancG with the usual methods of clearing that a,ijply to aay other commodities. The 
t:70 countries promise not to establish any unnecessary limitatiens in exports in 
addition to those foreseen by existing commercial treaties. The Hujigarian-Swl cs 
"clearing agreement", which became valid on December 1, docs not provide for any 
special mode of paym.ont for wheat, and therefore the quotas established by previoue 
agrcci.ients will be observed in the trade between the tv;o countries, and pajTncnt 
will be made in the same manner as that for other coi:im.oditics. Negotiations for 
the conclv.sion of similar treaties continue with several other countries. 

R'jmania has recently obtained from France the se:."ie privileges for wheat as 
those included in the French-Hungaria.n commercial trea.ty eu;pplement signed on 
September 25, 1931. a/ Negotiations for the conclusion of "clearing agreements" 
between Rumania and industrial or semi- industrial coiintries continue. To the 
first category belongs the Austro-Rumanian "clcering agrecm.ent" that was schcd- 
liLcd to bccom.c valid on January 15, 1932. In the second category is the Hurgap- 
iar^- Rumanian "clearing a.grccment", the general principles of which v/ere a.gxeed 
upon in December but ha\'c- not yet been put into opera.tion. 

The R-i!:.anian Government continued to have difficulty in paying export 
prom.ium.s. Inform.ation available on Ja.nuary 12 indica.tes tha,t prcieiure paymc nts 
equal to about $120,000 were over duo at that date. 

A "clearing agreement" h^s been concluded betv/een Yugoslavia and Austria on 
the samic general principles as those of the Auetro-Zungarian agreement, except that 
there is provided no special method of payment for wheat. This convention became 
valid on January 20, 1932 and it is believed that it '.7ill result in relatively im- 
portant e:cports of v/heat from Yugoslavia to Austria, in com.pctitien with Huiig:ir ian 
v/heat experts, b/. 

The Yugoslavian Privileged Export Compare continued to have difficulties in 
selling v/heat abroad, and ujvsold stocks in Czcchoslovakian ports ha.vc been i\:!duced 
by about 367,000 bxishcls only, since Decem.bor. cj 

a/ TJ'h - 68, December 19, 1931, page 19. b/ Hungary and Yugoslavia arc the only 
v;hcat surplus countries producing high grade wheat that have "clearing agrcem.en ts" 
with Austria. cJ They totalled on Januar;^^ 15, about 5,300,000 bushels. 



m-70 



-22^ 



The Continenta l Europea n •.7h3at Mar;^cet_ Si tiiat ion Duri n g Jan uar:/ a/ 

The situation on the Europear v/heat me,r.c-ts sho\/3 little change from a 
month ago. Statistically, there is reason to er.pect increased tahings and this 
has "been supported by recent changes in tlie Italian milling quota. On the other 
hand imports are heing hampered "by the present economic and political muddle in 
Europe. A settlement of the reparations and disarmament questions v;ould tend 
to improve continental trade. 

International political differences are again proving an almost insur- 
moujitaole barrier, and the internal political situation in Germany is fraught 
-vvith much uncertainty. 

It is now generally recognized, even officially, that stoclcs of bread 
grains in European countries are very low, but the resulting potential demand 
has 30 far been stifled by the protectionist ic attitude of the Governments as 
exemplified by high tariffs, domestic milling quotas cjnd foreign exchange re- 
strictions. V.'ith the bullc of the domestic crops now out of the way, some 
easing of the import rostrictions , such as has already occurred in Italy and 
France, may be expected. However, it m.ay be assumed that imports will continue 
to be restricted in accordance with the policy to maintain domestic prices aro-and 
their present l3vols. 

• ' Continental wheat marliets were rather quiet diu-ing the first part of ^ 
January as a resiilt of conflicting weather reports from the United^^Sti.tes winter 
v;heat bolt and ^uicertainty regarding the v/orld security raarhots. The reduction 
in world wheat shipments to Europe also aided in formulating marlcot opinion. 
During the second half of the month a livelier trade was carried on, with sizeable 
purchases of overseas v/hoat by Holland, Belgium and Italy. The movement was 
characterized by firmer prices, both in Europe and overseas. The recent reduc- 
tions in the Italian milling quota point to that country's need for both hard 
and soft wheats, with the probability that much of tne latter will be purchased 
from South America 



:,liile v/heat prices have not changed significantly since the end of 
December, a firm tone has been apparent in the largo im.porting comtries such as 
Italy, Germany and i^Yance. Pries in the first t-wo co^antrios have risen somewaat 
and this is tahcn as an indication of the lo\; domestic supplies. In the Central 
European countries, prices have been r^.ther \;erac and reports indicate that nand- 
to-mouth buyinp is the lule. In Czochoslovaicia end _-ustria tne allotment of 
foreign exchange has b.'on a serious deterrent, -.hile forcig^i currency allotments 
also exist in Germany, their effects on wheat imports has been, and is liKely to 
b^ of little im-oortance because a largo share of the imports will consist of 
wheat purchased tlirough the Doutscae G.treido-Handelsgesellschaf t for v.liich, as a 
Government agency, sufficient foreign currency ^n.ll be available. In addition to 
purchases from the Fara Board, the Deutsche Gctreide-Hcjidclsgcsellschaf t is aiso^ 



""Eased on" report of AsVistant .vgricultural Comi-nissioner Donald P. Christy, 
Berlin, Gemany, January 27, 1952 supplemented by cable Fobruar-y 6, 1^'52. 



-23- 



bolicved to licvo purcliasod c-acz±t z. of v/iiDC.t L.:icl otixcr £'r:.-ins £j from tho 
Rassicn C-ovcrimorit. If tliis is trao, G:rmc,:r'- lies alracdy prr.cticelly covered 
hor ninim-jun roquirciiic-nts of brc--d grc-ins. It is iio'.v belicvod tli::t foreign cur- 
roncy restrictions in Gen.irn;>' vill not be used to excluc.o '..'Iiew-t imports, clt'ioiigh 
it is entirely possible tlir.t suci: mee.svuces -..111 be used in the case of other im- 
ports > 

'.Vorld 3/iipme.r: 5 of v.vue.t to I^urope, .e.s -..-ell e,3 to the Goi"..t iiient, declined 
for the four \.'oelcs erded tlie :.-;iddl^ of Jenuery, but this decline -./e-s Icrgel;/ 
soasonc.l, c.s the period included the Christines and ^"ev/ Yoe.r holidays. It should 
bo noted thi,t during this period shipments to Z^arope hold up remarl-cably 'w-cll 
compered v;ith shir^mente du.i ing the corrospona i:ig period for tiie p...3t t\;o years. 
Shipments to the Continent, on the other hana, 3ho;;ed ev^n more of a seasone.l 
decrease tiian v/as tho case 1 -.st ye;.r, althougii tiiey e.re still above the shipments 
during the seme period two years --go. hussian shipm.ents iiave again been quite 
significant although thoy are much bolo\; the levels roaclied ee.rlier in tlie year. 

German farm stochs of -./he-.t for the middle of Janu. ry sho-..ed a further 
significant decline in available fr.rm supplies of both \,"heat end ryo. 2he middle 
of Decerfoer f-.rm stcclcg shoved a tremendous dccre..se in r'.vailable rye. In Ticv; 
of tile rel.-tivcly high ryo r;ricos this natur-.lly callzir,. for some o::pl-xation. 
Part of the heavy feeding may be attributed to tho existence of a considerable 
quantity.'- of low quality rye and also to the continuation of the hei.vy feeding 
practiced by the rye grov/ers last year, a ior.-.ctice which -.as forced upon them 
by tlio Governm,ont. V/ith tho installation of the now ']c.st Relief debtor protec- 
tion measures, v.hich have upset the creo.it ^/nd marketing situation, \;e may 
possibly find another reason for the reter.tion of large rye supplies by fe-rmors. 
For oxejiaple, the proceeds of an^'- rye sales -u'liich farmers maho to cooper etivcs 
or m^rciiants, are lihely to be applied to the ce,ncell..tion of previously con- 
tracted debts, 30 t.'ii.t the farm.: r is "xiable to purclvase feed grains, hath^r than 
experience a shortage of feed grains it appears that tlie f.'.rmers are retaining 
their home-gro\.ii gre.ins for feeding purposes. Zhe uiqto T)0S3ibility of the above 
action has, of course, had a psychologice-1 effect u^^on sales, as specific in- 
stances of sucli cases have ap-oarcntly not been numiurous. 

a/ Reported to be 3,674,000 buslicls of -..heat, 7,874,000 b-ashels of rye, 

4,593,000 bushels of barley and a sm^all quantity of cor::, but officie.l 
corj.'irmation of this has not yet been obtained. 



Tablo 11. -Price per busliel a' domestic v/lieat at speciiied n'ia,i-:cats , 
Jul/ 2, 1931 - February 3, 1952 



a/ Old cropo 

b/ Prices converted at current rate 



Date 


: Paris 


: Milan 


: Berlin 


: Prague 


: Vienna 


: Poznan 




: Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


.1951 














July 2 ..... 


: 191 


: 134 


: 172 


: a/ 124 


; 


: 84 


Au.g. 5 o . . . 0 


: 167 


: 130 


: 120 


: 116 


: 104 


: 60 


Sept. 2 b/ . 


1G8 


: 139 


: 131 


: 102 


: 97 


: 65 


Oct. 7 . o 0 . . 


165 


: 134 


155 


110 


: 98 


: 61 


lyovo 4 . . . 0 . 


165 


141 


147 


116 


114 


: 70 


Dec. 2 ..... 


162 


144 


143 


• . 117 


118 


76 


9 o..,. 


162 


144 


158 


117 


119 


75 


lo . . . o . ; 


163 


146 : 


137 


117 


120 


75 


23 . . c . . < 


166 


150 : 


158 : 


117 : 


119 


74 


50 


Ibo ; 


153 : 


140 


117 : 


120 : 





1932 : 














J an . 6 


168 




143 


115 : 


120 


75 


13 


166 : 


155 : 


145 : 


115 : 


lie : 




20 


170 : 


154 : 


146 : 


115 : 


118 : 




37 0 • 0 o • J 


169 : 


153 : 


150 : 


115 : 


118 ; 






168 : 


158 : 


156 


113 : 


lis : 





I 



s of exchange beginning v;ith this date. 



Crop Conditions 



The v;eather over almost tlie 
January and snow fall has bean very 
suffered little or no damage, but a 
loss. 



entij. u Continent has been uirasually mild durin; 
light, .-o-s a result, the fall sovni grain has 
severe cold spell might cause considerable 



■ Despite the reported increase in tie acreage of fall sovm grains in the 
more important v/heat producing countries, it is now considered -anlikely that 
production this coming year v/ill appreciably exceed that of 1931 if average 
gTOviing conditions prevail. Recent reports of fertilizer sales in German-/ shov; 
a sharp drop from last year and the same sitUc:-tion is believed to exist in other 
countries. Sales of fertilizer for the 1931 crop in all countries, for \/;iich 
data are available, sho\; a sharp decline from 1950, and this tendency \.lll un- 
doubtedly continue into the present crop year. The reduction in fertilizers 
used might under average growing conditions decrease yields by 5 to 10 per cent, 
v/hich is more than the acreage may be expected to increase. The chances, there- 
fore, are for a v/heat crop little if an;>- larvger than in 1931, provided average 
grov;ing conditions prevail. 

G-ormany 

h slight increase in the 1931 fall sov;--: acreage has taicen place in German^/' 
due ai^parently to the favorable v/eather prevailing at sowing time. TIio prelimi- 
nary official estimate places the incre: at 1.6 per cent for v/intcr v/iieat, 1.7 
per cent for v/intor rye, 1.5 per cent f^r winter barley. Dascd on those per- 
centage figures, tiio fall scv/n acreage is as follov;s: 



V7H-70 



Hs-rvostod Planted fall 

1951 1951 

1,000 ' 1,000 

V/intor vAicat ^ ....... . 4,635 . 4,742 

V/intor rye ... 10 , 609 10 ,795 

Vintar barloy .......... 561 563 , 



Yields rr.a-- Lo ai'foctjd, /iCv/DVor d'j a reducticn in tao use of fertilizer. 
A-pplication of tl-o recent East Ilelicf U'ocree has so undoraincd agricultural 
credit that the piarchase of fertilisers can scarcely Isj nado, , except on a cash 
■bcsis. This has caused a sharp drop in the use of artificial f ^■rtiliz:r3 . In 
the case of potasli, S3,le3 durinr; the seven nionths I.Iay-Dccom'bor 1901 dropped 
56 per cent compared ;/ith tiio sa;.,o TX}riod dm-in;:; the previous year, and similar 
developments in other fertilizers occurred. The Goverrrnent has just recently 
provided, through liens on t:,e ..,'ro-..'in(- crops, for the purchase of about 
,^6,000,000 v/orth of fertilizer. 

The agrarian press has been stressing the probability of a E5 to 35 per 
cent decrease in yields, but there is question whether so great a reduction 
would result fror. laclc of fertilizir in a single year. 

In Prussia the autuiren so-.;n crops at ti:e beginning of January- v/cre indi- 
cated to be generally satisfactory'' although soiiao mention was made of slight 
■>.-co.thor damage to v/jioat. The uirasuall-' mild weather during the first three 
weeks of Janu'.ry might prove liarmful should a sudden severe drop in temperature 
occur. 

F ranco 

The official estimate of the v/inter acreage in Pr.-nce is 12,894,000 acres, 
wliich is an increase of 10 per cent over last year. The trado believes this 
estimate is too lo'.;. The Prer.ch press raised the question of the probable 
surplus from the 1952 crop. 

F'rencli comm.ents on the condition of f^ll so".,'ings indicate tliat v;eather 
conditions have so f::.r been favorcble even tiiough somev:he-t colder weather v/as 
desired. Slight da/nage has occurred from insects. 

Italy 

A satisfactory condition of fall sowings is reported in Italy \:h3rQ tlio 
wcatlier has been generally favor^.ble for the growing cror.s. Local damage was 
caused by storms about the m.iddle of January, but uhis "..'as not particularly 
sori Ol-s . 

At the recent mooting of the Permanent Grain Committee it was stated that 
a slight increase occuriod in the acro^.go of i.-inter v.vieat plraitcd last fall. 
The acre:..ge plijited for harvest in 1932 is estimrted r.t 12,052,000 acres, com- 
pared •.;ith 11,941,000 acres for the prjvious y:--r, or an incrcj.sc of 0.8 per cent. 



■Jil-70 



-25- 



Au3 ti'la 

Accordin,j; to a.n official Austrian crop report :.s of tlie onl of Deceni"ber, 
crop conditions were somev;aat 'better tlion a niontn -^o. Compared v/iti". tl.e same 
tine Oi jOi~v o.go, liowevorj t'ne condition of v/inter r^^e is loss favorable, 'vMlo 
v;intor -.vheat is alDo-at eq-aal to l/^st year's condition. Toiapcr -tures durin;2, 
Dece/.ioer v;ere fl -act tux ting and tlie snov; cover was ro.tlier tiin, biit so far v^r;/ 
little d:avia{;;o lias occurred. ' • ■ 

C z e c lio s 1 0 valci a 

Reports on crop conditions in Czechoslovakia ',re not .avp.ilatle "but 
conditions there are tielievod to "bo similar to those ih „ustria and Germai?^. 

Sales of artificial fertilizers in Czechoslovakia d-arin/j; the 1930-31 
season v/ore much reduced compared to the previous year, and this tendency is 
e:>:pected to continue diuriiij the present crop ser.son. 

Bel^'ixu.i- 

A recent official report indicates that crop coiiditions are very 
favorahle, "but mention w .s also made of :i reduction^ in the use of selected seeds. 

Pol-nd 

Polish fall crops had a. r'-ther poor start v/ith low temper atures and 
excessive moisture imf avorahlo to pl-.nt development. 

a large decrease in the use of artifici'^A fertilizer also occurred in 
Pol'ind, compared v/ith the previous j'-ear. The calend ar ye-.r 1931 shov/ed a 
decrease of 4-5 per cent in nitrogenoua fertilizers, 40 per cent in the case of 
superphosphate and 25 per cent in the case of saltpeter, not./ithst :.nding 10 
per cent reduction in prices. It is impossible to judge fra-n the figures how 
much of this redvLction occ-urrcd during the fall months when t'lc v/intor crops 
to be harvested in 1932 were "being pliuitcd. It is roasonahle to suppose, hov/- 
ever, that a further consideraJjlc reduction in the use ox fertilizers will oecur 
during 1932. 

Lithv.ania 

Although the condition of v/heat cuiid rye in Lithu.■Jli^ is reported to "be 
average, the central statistical office indicates th.t crops /.re not entirely 
satisf '.ctory, ov/irig to unfavorable autiuin v/eather. H^-o, in particnJLar, is 
reported to shov/ a thin stand. Crops on v/cli-drained, s.'-:nd3- soil have sho-.m 
the best developm.ent. 

Russio. 

Procuring 3 

December and e:':,rly January developments of bhe gTain procuring canip\ign 
continued unsatisfactory and gave rise to consider able complaint on the p^rt 
of the Russian press and G-overiiaont officials. The procuring c:viipaign which, 



-27- 



according: to plans, should have been completed by the end of 1931, v;as only 
69*6 per cent completed by that time. Developments during the first half of 
January have continued imsatisf actory. Last year, hov/ever, procurings were 
also bactovard, amounting to only 91.3 per cent of the plan by January 1. It 
has been reported that the total amount of grain procured to January 1 this year 
v/as 3 per cent above that obtained by the same date a year ago. The most un- 
favorable conditions prevail in Uliraine, v;here total procurings were 3 jjer cent 
belov/ those of a year ago. On January 1, 1932, procurings for the total Union 
were about 90 per cent complete, v/hereas by January 15, procurings in Ukraine 
v/ere only 61.7 per cent complete. 

Little information is available regarding the procurings of individual 
crops, but it appears that wheat procurings are especially unsatisfactory. For 
the total Union wheat procurings were expected to constitute 40 per cent of all 
grains and in Ukraine 47 per cent. However, a report issued the latter part 
of December indicated that procurings of v/heat at that time amounted to only 
38 per cent of all grains and in Ukraine only 42 per cent. V/heat procurings 
in the Ukraine on January 15 were only 74 per cent comiplcte as compared with 
procurings of all grains which were 81.7 per cent complete. 

Shipments 

Grain shipments for the six months ended December 31, 1931, amounted to 
3,135,000 short tons comp)ared v/ith 3,509,000 short tons shipped during the 
corresponding period of the previous year, a decrease of 5.5 per cent. In 
absolute figures, the decline was largest in the case of barley where exports 
were 9,415,000 bushels or 27.4 per cent below those of tlio previous year. The 
large increase in rye sliipments is especially notable, exports of this crop 
reaching 15,983,000 bushels compared witii 7,559,000 bushels during the 
corresponding period of the previous year. 

Shipments of gra in thro ugh oOuth-Russiah ports 



July 1, 1930, to 
Doc. 51. 1930 
lj.h:'.QO. bu shels 



July 1, 1931, to 
Dec. 31. 1931 
1^00 bushels 



V.'hcat ....... 

Hye . . . . . 

iDcLi'lC'V 0 e ft • • • 

Oats 

Cora 



75,009 
7 , 559 

54,355 
5,720 

027 



56,652 
15,983 
24,940 
2,275 
1,890 



During the first tiiroo weeks of the present month shipments shcv.'cd a 
further decline of about 20 per cent fox- -11 grains and about 27 per cent 
in the case of v/heat as compared to December shipments. Exports during 
this period, however, were slightly above those of the corresponding period 
of last year. The following table sliown the shipments for the first three 
weeks of January with comparisons. 



■VK-70 



-26- 



First tliroo -./.zok; 
9.^ January 1951 
1,000 bushels 

'JTlieat ....... 1,£79 

P^^e ......... 1,071 

Barley ...... 3,165 

Oats ..CO... 1,715 

Corn ........ 669 



First tiiroo v/oc'-cs 
of_ Doc en"ber 1931 
l ,uOO "bushels 

3,105 
2,752 .. . 
1,626 
34 
1,185 



First throe -./ogIcs 
of Januar:/ 135 2 
1.000 bushels 

2,271 
1,264 
2,108 
441 
1,216 



Recent reports indicate that Russia has booked a fair amo-ant of tonnage 
for January and February loading. Much uncertainty exists as to v/hat part wheat 
v/ill play in these shipments, but it is believed most lilcely that the space vvill 
be used to fulfill old contracts for rye, barley and com. 

Crop con diti ons 

It has been reported by various parties coming out of Russia that the 
early December v^eather was very unseasonable. Apparently rainfall up to that 
time had been quite heavy and the ground was thoroughly soaked. The weather 
then turned suddenly cold and continued cold for ten days to two weeks, thus 
forming a coating of ice over most of the v;in.ter wheat territory. Al'ter tiie 
disap-oearance of this ice, the country was apparently well covered with snow. 
In Jan-oa-ry, however, warm weather melted the snow, following which, severe cold 
weather again covered the fields with ic : , The extent of the damage, of course, 
can not yet be determined, but it is certain th-u such weather is very detrimental 
to crop prospects. 



3;pr ing sowings 

The People's Commissariat of the hSSR has just annomiced the 1932 spring 
sowing plan. According to this plan, total spring acreage is expectoa to roach 
252,907,000 acres, compared v.-ith last year's area of 240,885,000 acres, or an 
increase of about 5 per cent. 

The latest revised figures for the spring acreage sown for harvest in 1951 
and the acreage planned for 1952 are as xOllov.'s: 

oovm for 1931 Plann ed, 1 932 Incroaso 

' 1.000 acres 3^,000 acres Por^ojit 



Vrnoat ...o,.. 63,505 64,740 ^ 

Oats 43,242 45,034 4 

Barley ...o.. 16,062 17,519 9 

The Fore ign Llarket s 



Gorma n;'/ 

The German wheat raarkots wore generally firmer during January. Altho-ogh 
the activity of the market scarcely v/ont beyond the covering of actual current 
requirements, there was a stocd^^ and almost uiiinterruptod rise in \jioat prices. 
As the quantities of wheat in trade chaT^.oT.s arc undoubtedly small, offars v/ere , 
readily absorbed, and anj' improvomont in domanc vas almost immediately reflected, 
in increased prices. In tlie last few days, the market was also supported by a < 



V/K-70 



-29- 



olic^T-t revival in I'lour st'l:?* E/o qiict; t ioi.s {,'onoiv.lly dlsplt/.'-od tlio sarao 
tendency' as v/heat pricos, bat as f:e ^overament is opposed to any rise ir. bread 
prices, they have irianipulatoO r;/e prices to s cie extent through sales oi' 
Government rye. Fluctuations or. the rye maricet, therefore, v;ere sanewhat wider, 
but quotations never Gixeeded ,>'-i'11 per biishel, which seems to be the level be- 
yond v/Iiich the Government does not v.lsh prices to [:o» 



Table 12. -Price per busl'ol of domestic v/heat and rye in Gemar^r, 



Doceinber 2, 1931 - February 



1952 



Date 



1951-32 

Dec o 2 . 

9 . 

1" . 

23 . 

50 . 

Jan. 5 . 

13 . 

20 . 

27 . 

Feb . 3 . 



Prices convertc 



b/ "hfeischer" 



Kamb-urf: 
Gont_s 

149 
142 
139 
159 
143 
145 
146 
147 

156 



V,aieat 

xjreslau a/'' 
Ge nts 

146 

140 
159 
140 
140 
145 
148 
149 
151 
156 



irrent rates of exchcngc 



jrlin b/ 



Gents 

143 
13G 
137 
136 
liO 
143 
145 
146 
150 
156 



a/ '/heat of averaro quality of 57,9 poixads per busl^el. 



Jx/c 



Berlin Cy 



Gents 

121 
115 
115 
115 
11£ 
113 
120 
119 
116 
119 



.vhest of 56 •3-59.0 pouiids per busholt 



"Iia,rKischor" rye of 55.9-55.7 pounds per bus/iel. 



During December net imports of v/h^at into Germarj;,' amounted to about one 
million bushels compared \7ith a not export of 164,000 biishols during; the pre- 
vious month and a net im.port of 1,003,000 bushels in Doc .moor 1950. During the 
first half of the current season, not imports of \7ii:at into Germai.y amounted to 
only 6 m.illion bushels comp-ared with 17 million bushels ax:ring the corresponding 
period of the previous year. This was the result of the issuance of i:r.port 
certificates for all v/lioat exports \rg to Januar;-/ 1, 1932. r.s a result, 10 m.il- 
lion bushels of v/heat v/oro exported during this period. This is p.atorially 
below the Goverrjnent' s expectations, due partly to the depreciation in the 
English pound and the currencies of the Scandinavian coia-tries . 

Stoclcs of wheat and r;^-e on German farr.:s have been declining miore rapidly 
t]ian a year ag'O, according to figures published by the G^-rman Agricultural 
Coujicil, as of January 15, 1932. The total decrease in farm stoclcs of wheat for 
the five months ended January 15, 1932 amounted to 101 million bushels. This 
is considerably larger than the disappearance in any of the last five years. 
Part of this m.ay bo accounted for by the increase in whe^.t c>rr)orts, \/hich v/ore 
10 million bushels larger than during the corresponding period of the previous 
year. Som.e increase is also apparent in farm use, but tl-.e bulk of the v/heat 



•■rJE-70 



-50- 



has boon placed in trade hfrads. As trr.do circl js liav . continiiallv comx;lainGd 
of ■ short offorinrs of ■..•Ii.irt, tiio o:Uy Gxpla.M^tlorx t.:i...t v/o can off jr is that 
the usual supplies in second hands have Loon groatl^'' depleted through the con- 
tinued hand-to-nouth 'buying'^ F..rm stoclcs of V/Iioat on ■Oocember 15 v/ere practical- 
ly the sai-ne as a yoj.'.r ago, in spite of tiic raucii Larger crop. 

There has also been a"n ■unusually heavy disappearance of rye, according to 
farm stock figxires in G-ernany as of January 15, 19S2. Disappearance to that date 
v/as 162,000,000 buslxels which is greater than in any of the past five years, ex- 
cept 1928-29, during whicii year the disappearance ^7as eicactly the same, but the 
crop v/as much larger that year. The total stoclcs cf rye on December 15, 1931 
v/ere at least 24,000,000 bushels lov/er thi.n on the corresponding date for any 
of the past five 5'-ears. The surprising feature of the rye situation is the 
apparent large farm usac:e to date,, indicating that the feeding of rye is at 
least equal to, or even greater that of last year, v/hen the Government 

practically compelled fermers to feed largo quantities of rye. The disappearajice 
of rye during the month ended December 15 is not quite so large as that of. the 
seme month in 1930, due to the fact that in 1950 largo deliveries of rye v/erc 
m.ade by farmers to the Deutsche Getreide-Kandolsgescllschaf t as a result of 
supporting lourchasos on the part of trie latter. 

France 

French wheat markets during January were relatively stable. A slight 
downv/ard movement of prices during the first twelve da^ s of the month was 
followed by several days of higher prices, after whic;i pi-ices v/ere again v/ealcer. 
The high milling percentage in force has stimulated inquiry from tiie South 
and Southv/est and even extended into som.e of the i'lorthern sections. The milling 
quota for domestic \/]ieat, ho\/ever, lias recently been lo'/zered to 80 per cent. 

Ital y 

The recently annoiniced reduction in the Italiai; ;ailling quota became 
effective February 1, 1932. r.t that tim.e the milling percentage for domestic 
hard wlxeats v/as reduced from 50 j^er cent to 20 per cent, and the ;nilling per- 
centage for domestic soft v/hoats from 95 per cent to VO pc-r cent. In antici- 
pation of this reduction, considerable quantities of foreign v/ heats, particular- 1 
ly Plates, have been purc-ias ed during recent v/eeks. | 

7/lioat imports have been very small so far during the curi-e?it season, \ 
and December imports smountod to only 5 million bushels compared v/ith 5.V 
million bushels during the previous December. Total imports from July - Deca.iber 
1931 am.ounted to only G.8 million bushels compared v/ith 3G.1 m.illion bushels 
for the corresponding period of 1930. 

Domestic v/heat prices have been higher as a result of th.e short dom.'-^stic 
supplies . 



\'R'-70 



-31- 



Holl-nd aii Bo].{;itU:i 

Tlie Dutch v/lieat marlicijs sl'iowed Gop.e inproveaont during January. Follo^Tinc 
tr.Q reLativel^' qiuet trade e:rperieiiced during-, tiie riolidAj-s, tnisiness rxtivity 
increased, v/it]i tae trade concentratin-:_, lar^'ely on nov/ Plates, \/iiicii are reported, 
to l:e or very cood. quality. There also a ;aod:rate activity in spot trans- 
actions wliich resulted in a naterial decline in Austerdar.i port stoc'cs. Prices 
h?v3 not chan£:;ed materially, "bxit are sone-;hat higher than at the end of last 
i.ionth. Belgian v7heat markets durin{, Jajiuary v/ere onl"^- nioderately active. 
Douiestic der.iand continues about normal and the laarhet sho\/3d a steady tone 
th'rou'jhout the month. 

0 z e c h 0 s 1 0 vah i a 

Vfiieat narl:ets in Czechoslovakia v/ere rather inactive in Janu ry. The 
market appears v;eil supplied and mills have shov;n iio interest in purchases 
"beyond ctirrent requirements. Prices have re;.iained practical i'y xuickanyed. 

The wheat import contingent for Jamiar^ has no-; Id eon released "by the 
hini stry of Agriculture. T.ie quiintitj' and the distrilution remain vjnchanyad, 
b-nt the ratio has been fixed at 1 : 2, t:i...t is, v/itli every tvo carl.oads of 
foreign v;heat one cari-oad of doiicstic v/heat m\~'it be purchasv^d c.y. This is a 
concession to the representatives of domestic agricultu-re, who h .ve insisted 
that sales of domestic v;heat v/ere ha::ipored by the heav]" iL:ports of foreign 
v/heat. The demand of these representatives to discontin^.o rye imports for 
one month has so far not been acted upon by the lii:-iister of Agriculture. 

Austria 

Austrian v;heat markets also shov/ed little activity since the first of 
the . ear. Hills have shov;n but little interest due to the slac!: flour trade. 
Purch ses of v/h^at, r/hich v/erc formerly stimrulated by fe.n-s of inflr^tioiL, 
liave nov; decreased and present offers appear sui'ficient to covjr the reduced 
■demand. The 'ligher gr:ide Hu. .^arian v/heat s .n-e in good do/..v.nd, duo to t:ic lac': 
of foreign curronc • for the pv.rch'ase of foreign v/heat s. 

T:ie rye market has recently sho-./n some v/oalaiess, .pp//rently in .'.uiti- 
cipatior. of ,1 reduction i : tic import duty- on rye. Hyc prices bare been above 
those for 'vhoat and a reduction in the dvity on rye is e:rpected in the ne:.r 
futaire. 

Polvnd 

As a result of tlie uiisatisf actory res-ilts of last yevr's crop, t^ie 
Polish grain markets b.?,ve co itinuel r:;l:itiveiy iir;/;. 

Sxports of v/heat and rye v/crc very small dvj-ing Dece. '.ber, -.m.oimting 
to only 38,600 bushels and 30,7:)0 bivshels respectively. It is no:.' runorod 
that imports of rye from. Hussi:. will be necessary before thj end of the 
se'-vson. 

a/ ThQ r?,tio was formerly four carlo -.ds of foreign to one of dom.estic. 



■.711-70 



-32- 



Ta"ble 13.- "/heat incli:.din.3 flour: lioyement fro:'.i principal export in;[, 

coimtries, 1923-2S to 1931-32 



Exports as given "b^ official sources 



Co"antr7 




> Total 


' Jvlj 1 to date shown 


D.te 




















. 1928-29 


• .1929-30: 


1930-31 


1929-30 


• 1:50-31 


: 1931-32 








; 1,900 


. 1,000 : 


1,000 : 


1, 000 


: 1, :oo 


: 1 , 0 0 








ihushels 


: bushels :b'ashels 


bushels 


•bushels 


: bushel s 




United States . . 


• 


. 153,637 


: 153,242: 


131,536 


. 92,195 


: 88,103 


: 82,315 


.Dec. 31 


Canada 




; 422,732 


: 184,213: 


267,365 


: 110,220 


: 167,564 


: 120, d27 


•Dec. 31 


Ar;53ntina ... 


• 


: 227,059 


: 161,265: 


120,510 


59,583 


. 10,973 


: 19,942 


.Sept. 30 


-'.ustralia .... 


* 


. 107,785 


: 61,892: 


143,295 


: 14, (Jo/ 


i4,4oD 




•Sept. 30 


Pais s i a 






7,330: 


110, 909 










liiui jary . . . . , 




, 23,658 


. 31,415* 


13,425 


8,252 


3, 638 


: 5,597 


•Oct. 31 






7,919 


. 23,593: 


4, 930 


9,416 


3,054 


: 6,738 


.Sept. 30 


HviS.iUXll'l 3^ ..... 




1,553 


2,560: 


14,792 


32 


332 


: 430 


:Jul7 31 


-LJ U'_X:_,L^x X • . * . o 




760 


96: 


5,041 


52 


1,370 


: 4,500 


Oct. 31 


Britisli India (L 


s) 


5,716 


6,798: 


10,19 7 


1,733 


6,019 


1 '^AT 

X , -.y _ J- 


Sept. 30 


Total . . 




"960,9'59 


~"6T3~2"','454*' 


~827",CO0* 


' 2'95V545 


29"5, 5"r3" 


:' "2'&8,'eYr 








Shipinents as 


fiiven b; 


' current 


trv.de so^ 


.ircos 








Total : 


V/eehs ended 




:J\ily 1 to Eeb.5 






. 1929-3 0 


1930-31: 
















(Rev. ) 


, (Prol.): 


Jan. 23 


. Jan. 30 


7eb. 5 


: 1930-31 








"■'1,000' 


1 i,000 : 


"■1,000""; 


1,000 




: 1,000 


i,.:o 






, bushels 


bushe 1 s : 


bushels 


bushels 


.bushels 


: bushels 


biishels 


J- 1 W X U — .L J- W 11 ^ X ,L O Cl< / 




317,248 


. 367, 768: 


5,456 


4,775 


; 5,802 


: 240,720 


'200,850 


Canada, 4 n:arkets 




T93,380 


. 2Y07I68 :' 


'~X,l-9"3' 


2, Ws' ' 


"' '2,T44 ■" 


:'T90","7"0'0' 


T34VS5'3 


United States . . 


• 


. 149,758 


« 132, 276 • 


2, 739 


1,327 


2,352 


: 94,374 


91,564 


-'irgontina .... 


• 


■ 164,984 


: 118,712: 


* 3",'85"6' 


"" " 47,'17'2 " 


r ■ 4721^' ' 


. 37V244 


' 5y, 059 


AListralia .... 


• 


. 64,376 


144,512: 


7,672: 


4, 000 


4,0 65 


: 61,100 


79,617 






5,672 


' 92,520: 


304 


384 


408 


: 74, 984. 


69,704 


Danube 5: Jiilgaria 




18,384 


. 15,128: 


1,272: 


448 


176 


: 10,960. 


34,272 


British India . . 




;d/ "1 9'^-. 


: 5,808: 


0: 


0 


0 


: 5,704 


515 


Total _e/ 




! 572,500 


I 744,448: 


13,560! 


13,780 


15,264 


: 430,712:4-1-?,118 


Total Eiiropean 


















shipir^ents a/ 




47 j, 096 


: 6].4,488: 


13,064: 10,136 




: 361, 624:341,776 


Total e x-Sur opi e an 


















shipments a/ 




133,683 


. 172, 600 : 


6,048: 4,000 




: 87,152 


112,216 



aj Broor.ilaall ' 3 Corn Tra,de ifews. by' Fort 'Tilliare, Port hrthv.r, V.;uico\iyer and 
Prince Pupert. c.J Blacl: Sea shipments onl^. d/ Hot imports 1929-30 were f 
1,847,893 bushels;^ for 1930-31 were 420,099 bushsls. qJ Total of tr:--do figures 
incliidos horth .Imerica as reported by Brooinliall* s. 



Tal)le 14 .- Unitei States: Exports ox v/iieat and v/heat including flour, 

v;ee;:s, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



Date ■ 
. : 


'./heat : 


"'lieat flo^ir : 


'i/lieat including: flour 












1931-32 




1,00'.) ' : 


1,000 : 


1,000 : 


1,000 : 


1,000 ■ 


1, 000 




TDuohels : 


liv.3heLs . 


"barrels : 


"barrels : 


lushels : 


lushels 


Jan, - Jiine : 


29,492 : 


22,473 


5,710 


4, 718 


56, 329: 


44, 643 


•July 4 - -iiTg'. 1: 


12, 337 


13,502 : 


345 : 


731 


18, 000: 


16, 938 


-v^-. 3 - An^.29, 


14,057 : 


6, 274 


387 ; 


551 


13,225: 


8, 863 


beot.b - Oct. 3; 


12,516 


8,997 : 


1,333 


547 


19, 116 


11,569 


Oct, 10 - Oct. 51: 


4,924 


10,827 . 


896 . 


529 


9,135 


13,313 


Nov. 7 - IIov.23: 




3, 952 


805 : 


514 


6,315 


11,369 


".Teek ended 














-Dec. 5 


1,214 


1,459 


105 


211 


1,708 


: 2,461 


12 


555 


2,403 


; 121 


146 


1 , 124 


3,089 


19 


373 


: 1,631 


210 


162 


: 1,360 


o q o 


25 


: 2/4 


641 


: 153 


■ i. ' *.J 


1,01-' 


i , b J 1 


J an . .-^ 


; 238 


1,058 


: 166 


: 35 


: 1,018 


1,453 


J-n. 9 


: 219 


: C80 


: 95 


: 102 


: 665 


; 1,359 


16 


: 188 


: 495 


: 128 


: 207 


: 790 


: 1,463 


23 


: 23 


: 2,08] 


: 145 


: 140 


705 


• p 739 


50 


: 532 


: 534 


: 154 


: 1.38 


: 1,256 


\ 1 , -.J 2 7 



Corapiled fro-n weekly report of Departrient of Coi.unerce. 



Table 15.- Vfneat including floi^jr: Shipments from principal exporting 

regions, specified dates, 1930-31 :nd 1931-32 



Date 


Arj^entin.a ' 


Australia ■ 


D.an"i\"b e 


Ilorth I'j". 


erica 




1930-31: 


1931-32: 


1930-31. 


1931-32: 


19 


30-31: 


1931-32 


1950-31: 


1931-32 




.1,000 


1,000 . 


1,000 : 


1,000 : 




000 : 


1, ODO 


1,000 : 


1,000 




."busLe Is. 


"bushels : 


"b\ishels : 


"bushe 1 s . 




.shels : 


"bushels 


"bushels : 


"bushels 


J an . - J"cine 


62,012: 


94,336: 


38,300: 


105, 648 




3,396: 


4,40G 


• 

146,712; 


155,832 


July 4- bs'ic.' 1 


4,892 


9,350- 


6,320: 


15, 730 




403: 


744- 


40,616; 


27,048 




: 3,728: 


5,372 


4,812: 


7,596 




l,368i 


504 


. 40,528: 


23,352 


Sept. 5- Oct. 3 


: 3,7.^": 


5,940. 


5,450: 


3,216 




4,312: 


9,576 


. 45,552: 


30,950 


Oct. 10- Oct. 31 


. 4,124. 


5,572 


6,492; 


6,84-1- 




1,283- 


9 , 200 


: 28,680: 


29 , 040 


Nov. 7- L:ov. 23 




5,864 


5 , 450 


5,900 




1, 792: 


6,224 


. 28,392: 


34,736 


"..'eelc ended 




















Dec . 5 


: 924 


668 


. 1,896 


992 




264: 


1,024 


. 8, 792* 


7,128 


12 


: 54-1- 


; 1,175 


1, 348 


. 1,443 




568 : 


1,563 


. 5,264: 


5,864 


19 


X , ^-^-^ 


: 1,736 


> 2,130 


. 1,523 




192: 


1,568 


. 5,072: 


5,032 


26 


: 992 


- 2, .-43 


. 2, 200 


. 3,354 




216: 


6.24 


. 4,950: 


1 070 
^> ~ ' 


Jan . 2 


1 1,250 


. 1,42-1 


. 2,195 


I 1,536 






723 


: 4,080: 


5,856 


Jan. 9 


: 963. 


: 1,500 


! 5,715 


• 3 , 464 




72': 


312 


: 5,472: 


5,448 


16 


; 2, 404 


r 2,743 


: 4,856 


. 6,512 




54: 


304 


: 5,544^ 


5,030 


23 


: 2,358 


: 3,856 


. 5,732 


7 '70 




16: 


1, 272 


: 6,280: 


5,455 


30 


: 3,524 


: 4,172 


: 5,4,16 


; 4, 000 




0; 


443 


. 6,992: 


4, 776 


Compiled from official and trade 


s cure 83 















m-70 



-7A~ 

Ta^ole 15.- United States: Imports and exports of wheat inc ludln^^j flov.r, 
Jul- 1 to Jami-^r- 31, 1330-31 and 1931-32 



1 1 ein 



B^CPOi^TS : 

'Jneat ......... 

Flotxr in terms of wheat 

Total . . . . . 



ILIPCITS: (July - Doc.) 

VTiec:t • 

Flour in terms of vhoat 

Total . . . ' 



ITST E.:CT'0RTS: 

V/heat ........ 

Flour in terms of wheat 



Total 

'c'oinioTred~f rom ofTfc ial s ourc e s . 



Jul 3^ 1, 1930 
to 

Jan_._ 31, 1_931_ 
'l, 000 "hus'heYs ' 



July 1, 1931 
to 

Jan. 31, _1 93_2_ 
1,000 I msheT s 



56,342 . 1 
35,176 : 


63,367 
25 , 841 


91,518 : 


89,208 


11,168 ■ : 

5 


7,805 
1 


11,173 ; 


7,306 


45,174 
35,171 


55,562 
25 , 840 


80,345 : 


81,402 



Table 17.- I'.heat including flour: Exports from principal ex,-,ortin.; 
covuntries, novetn'ber and Decemher 1930 and 1931 and 
January 1931 and 1932 



Count J 



ilOV. 



1950 _ 

'"■i,"oc^d" 

hiTshels 



United States . . . • 

C anada ^ 

Argentina '-'J > . • * 
British India . . . : 

Australia : 

Hxissia a/ • 
D.onuhe & Bulgaria a^'' : 

Total , . . ; 



3,701 
34,784 

2,912 
371 

9,883 
23,320 

1,792 



1,000 
hushols 



13,550 
29,596 
5,864 

2./ ^ 
a/5,900 
7,056 
6,22'. 



81,771 : 68,198 



Dec. 



193q__ 

" Y,'c>oo 

iDushels 

6,906 
24,959 

4,964 
527 

9 , 054 
11,5 66 

1,552 

' 59,510 



1931 
' T, 000" 
"bushels 

12, 100 
24,387 
7,452 
a,/ 0 
i£/8,856 
4,360 
5,712 

'".62.867 



Jc.n. 



193 1__ 

" iV.7o'o 

btishels 



5,731 
11,374 
9,264 
451 
17,858 
1,5':-'S 
152 



r ' '193^ a/ 

" Y/ooo 
husl-iels _ 

5,693 
8 , 834 
12,276 
0 

21,648 
2,656 
2,336 

54,64L' 



Com^ailed from offici.a and trade sorj:cos, 



Preliminary. 



7^-70 



-35- 



Tci"blG IS.- Vfiioat includirc flor.r: ITat inijorts into Europe ja 
covjitries, yoar.s lQ.29-3.0,, 1'" 50-31 c^'id July 1 to l-.tost 

date, 1231-32 









Pi'oliin. 


Hot 


iiaports r op or tod 


Country : 


1929-30 


: 1930-31 


0 stimatG 










- _ — .. '. . . .." 




" 


1931-32 


Jul'S 1 


to 


1930-31 


1931-32 




. . . . 
1 lillion 


:::iliion 


Killion 






- Million 


, - li 1 1 i on 




"busliols 


.■bushels 


, oushols 






"busliols 


,l)V.3llClS 


Unitoa -"-mydo;! .... 


202 




-.200-210 


Djc . 


31 . 


127 


145 


Italy . : 


4-3 


84 


34-70 


Oct. 


31 


24 


5 


BoIqivjU , , : 


.43 


. , 45 . 


.42-45 


ITov. 


30 


20 


O O 
^ 


France . • . . , , - . . 


20 


45 


. 55-62 


Oct, 


31 


8 


32 


lI&tliGrlands ; 


30 


35 


, 31-33 


, llov. 


30 


17 


14 




ol 


30 . 


. 13-29 


Djc. 


31 


17 


G 




22 


24 


. 16-20 


Oct. 


31 


7 


8 




IG 


19 




i'iOY . 


30 


9 


9 


5\7itzorl.arid 


17 


18 


17-18 


, Doc. 


31 • 


10 


13 




IS 


■ . 15. 


. ,16-17 


liov. 


33 


6 


: 7 


Ozoclioslovakia .... : 


12 


15 




ilOV. 


30 


o 




Doni-ia.rk ; 


8 


11 


10-12 


Dgc. 


31 . 


M 


11 




7 


3 


. 7-3 


D3C. 


31 


5 


5 




s 


5 


5-5 


HOT . 


30 


3 


3 




' 7 


5 


5-7 


Dec . 


31 


A 


3 . 


Poland : 


6 


i/' 

3 


2-4 


Doc. 
Sept. 


31 • 

30 


'o/ -2 

1 


5/ -1 

1 




o 


* o 


1-2 ; 


Sjpt. 


30 : 


1 


^-^ 


jstonia ......... 




1 


. 1-2 


i:oT. 


50 








5 


— / ' 


. 3-5 




31 






Total . . : 


528 . 


582 








271 , 


OO O 



Coapilod fron official soxircos. 
£/ Loss than 500,000 iDuohols. 

^ i'ot "rxport. 



0 



1 - S^jjinrifiry , . . . , . 1 

2 - '.7he\t Prices ■. . . 2 

3 - Tlie U-aited St-tes Surplus as of FelDrany 1, 1S32 7 

4 - 'i?ho- t Surpluses of tlie . ?rincip--l .^.'portin^i; Countries. ......... 9 

5 - Australia '. 

6 - The TfiiJ-t Situation .in Ar,-.;entina. 

7 - Sli-.iii^hai riour I/io.rlcet '.14 

8 - :.'iarkcts end Prices . . . , 15 

9 - '-Tintbi Vv'lieat Scediut^s for the 19o:.' Crop ■ . • ' 17 

10 - Dcvelo^ri.ieri.ts in G-ovornivient Aid 13 

11 - The Continental European Wheat Market Situation I/arin-;_, Jniuary. . 22 

12 - Crop Conditions. ' 24 

13 - Foreign '■.■.■.rkets 28 



TA3L2S ■ , ■ • 

1 - •'he t: Price per bushel at specified inarke-ts ........... 

2 - 'Jheat: Av..:;rage price per bushel of parcels of specified descrip- 

tions c.i.f. at Liverpool. ..... 

3 - -Vher.t: Closing prices of hay futures at suecified laarkets .... 

4 - vfiieat : Woiijited aver ago c,,ash prices stated inarlcets .' 

5 - '/fiicat: Surplus of United States for export and carry-ov.r as of 

February l, 1930-31 and 1931-32 

6 - i'l/heat: Surplus for export and co.rry-ovcr in the four princijoal 

exporting countries 

7 - C,-riada; Distribution of the whe.rt crop 

8 - Australia: Distribution of the wpxeat crop 

9 - Price per hashel for vmeo.t of co"u.;jar-Jple i_^r.ades on principal' 

Dcuiube Bf sin xuarkets 

10 - Vfce.-'t: '^tstiraatcd acreaoC planted in the fall of 1931 in specified 

Draiube 3;.sin countries. 

11 - Price per busnel of doinestic wheat '.t specified laarkets 

12 - Price per busltcl of domestic whe.r.t and rye in G-ermcaiy 

13 - fceat iricludin^ flour: i/Iovement from principol exporting countries 

14 - United. Strtes: Exports of wheat and wheat includint;^- flour, by weeks. 

15 - 'i'lfhe.at including flour: Shipments froin principal exuorting region.s. 

16 - United States: Imports and exports of wheat including flour . . . 

17 - '.ifher^.t including flour; Exports frova principal exporting countries 

18 - v/heat including, flour: Net imports into Suropcoii countries. . . . 




':r'-7i 



P 



miTZD st:.t:.s depahti-Isht of ag-rict'l? 

B-arca-.\ of Agricultural Sconoraics 
'.YaoIiiiKjt on 



■JORLI) V/lIDA'i^ PH0SPI:G'TS 




jlicr.t futiiro 



3 prices '.t tl:o pri.icipal world narl-otc stro;'.:£,thGnod 



considcra'bl^ duriir^ tiu lat';jr p-^.rt o£ Vo'bvv.avj iirA first j-o.rt of I-arch. 
During;, tlie wooL ondod "larcA IJ., Ao-.voV'jr, the dcclino in prices v;as froni 
1 to 3 conts por TDuahol. Lotn Livorpool and '/iimipc^ futnros prices, in 
tjr.:is of Unitoi St wtjs curr^xic^' wore at a'cOLit t'l^- s^vij lovcl as Chicago on 
■Larch 16 and tlio recent doclino thoso i.iarlcots was approiiiia .toly tlu sario 
ao tliat at Ghica3;o. Tais dcclino in futuros .priCv^s v;arj acco 'pa-iicd loy a 
riiarlcGd incr'^aso in v/orld sa.ip:.:cnts , Gspociall fr0::i tlv^ Soiitacrn Iljmi splx jr-j. 
Cash pricos at Unltjl Statjs lao.raots djclinoi durin;, t'.-.o first h-ilf of I.arcli. 
i^nis decline :a,",p lir.ve Id eon affected I'y tlio ■mrasually n.avy roccip'ts at ter.nintl 
markets during Fotriiary. 



increased .-naricodly during recent v.'GjIcs.. Sliip-ients for tl;e r/jjlc ended :iarch 12 
totalled 17,709,000 ousaels as coi^p^red with 15,e50,0j0 bushels for the 
corresponding v;och in Fehru.arp and 15,365,000 "bushels for tee corresponding 
v/ool: last pear. This incro ,so in shipments c. n he -.ccountv.d for in large 
part hy the heavy uiov .nt fro;:i Argentina a.r.6. Au.str dia. Tliore has also heer. a 
slight increase in ship-.ier.ts fro,j ITorth Aneric... Shipneats f ro i Russi.- 
continue to "be rel..tively lov/ as coapared \/ita last ye ,r. Total shi^-raents fro:n 
July 1 to h .rch 1'2 for the principal exporting corrabries ar.ovr.tel to 548 
million "bushels as cor.narjd with 539 r.iillion for the correspond ii g period 



Total shijp.aonts of whc.-t froa the prixicipal exporting covuitrius have 



Surpluses availalDle for e:c]oort and carr:/-over in tlie 4 principal 
exporting coxmtries, together v/itli United Kingdan port stoc"':s and o.uantities 
reported afloat, probalily amoujit to about 900 million tusliols as of Liarch 1, 
On Ilarcli 1, 1931, tliese surpluses totaled 930 million "busliols. In addition 
to these surpluses "being soinewhat smaller tiiis : ear, there is a Is^rg-^r 
percentage of the total in the United St'ites and Canada. th.an last pear. These 
facts tend to improve the position of ex'porting countries. If the riiovement of 
Vi/heat into consuming channels for the remainder of the ciirrent season is a,s 
much as that for the corresponding period last 3'ear, the world carr.3'--over of 
wheat v/ill prohahl^; ho somcv/hat smaller than it was last ' ee-v. In the United 
States, however, rough estii.iates siiggest that the carrp-ovor of wheat on 
July 1, 1932, might he somewhat larger than the 319 million h^ishels carried 
over from the 1930-31 season, 

Fall sowings of winter wheat in 10 of the principal wheat producing 
co-ujitries of IHurope, Russia excluded, are reported to he 97,7 per cent of the 
1931 acreage. Reports from Siissia indicate an increase of 9.7 per cent over 
the acreage sown last pear. In the United Steites the 3856812,0^0 acres reported 
sown diiring the fall of 1931 was only 89,6 per cent of the acreape sown the 
previoxis fall. The total vd.:iter wheat acreage for those covjitries reported 
to date appears to he 3.8 per cent luider the acreage in tnose countries a ;;o:.r 
earlier. 

Argentine v/heat being received in I>arope is reported to he exceptionally 
good o^imlitj'. Deliveries of ny:i crop wncat are h,.ing recei\''ed hp European 
m.erchants, and the trade is well pleased with its appearance. On the oasis 
of its high quality and its accept.ahility to the trad,, hrp^-ntine v/heat pric:.s 
are said to have advanced several cents and narro\;ed the spread existing bet.veen 



V.'H-71 -3- 

tlio old crop aiid Canadian spring; wlioat offGriiiQ;s. Stron:;^ c Oi ipoti ti on frora 
Arv^'ontino v/lieats is likoly to bo felt t-iis ; oar "b;,' Canadian spring and 
United Statos hard v/iiitor v/Iioats. T\70 samplGS of t'lo new crop ..aistralian 
\7lioat have ho^n tested hp Dr. D. H, Colar.an of the laillin^, haking and 
cheaical lahoratory of the Bureav. of Agricultural Aconoiaics. The one froin 
iTo'.v South "/ales graded United St:.tus Ho. 2 Soft ""lite, the other was fror.i 
5outh Austr.ali''- and -■raded United States ho. 1 Soft 'Aiite. 

The Italian milling; quota v/as expanded 10 per cent, Ilarch 21, to 
ad-.iit an ad;ni::ture of 50 per cent foreign soft vheat in north'jrn raills 
and 70 per cent in southern mills. Tiie French milling q^iot has hion 
chan_,ed to allow 35 per cent foreign wheat, effective harcn 21. 



« 



\7H-71 



TalDlo 1,- V/lioat: 



'/orld supply'', price and di sappoarancc, 1921-22 to 
1931-32 



Production 



1 oar 
— 


Uni tod 
Stato s 


' Canada 


' Ar/^^ontina 


'Australia 


, Suropo ; 
&J ; ot 


All 

10 r Td y 


■/or Id ','r 
due t i on 




i ii 1 li on 


_ . „^ 

. i ii 1 1 1 on 


- - - ~ - 

; .1 ii 1 1 i on 


1 1 111 r\ v'l 

, i ii 111 on 


^ ii 111 on: i i 


i 1 1 i on 


Ml 1 ix on 




TdusIic 1 s 


, t^isliols 


liiislicls 


. l)Ush.ols 


; iDusnjls; t" 


Lislio 1 3 


"bus^iol s 


'~']_— > 


QIC 

d io 


jjl 


, i 1/ i 




' 1 0 Q 0 


oio 


0 , i ^0 


1 O O o or? 


C) c o 
O bo 


41-0 J 


ii/D 


iuy 


1 , U4l.-'^.r 


bUb 


J , to J 


TOO':; o/i • 


^ O 


A >yA 

lL ( t-j: 


0 /I 0 
248 • 


Tor; 


i, 1^0 


bo b 


^ acy 
0 ,DD ( 


1924-25 : 


864- 


0 ., 0 


191 


165 


. 1,058 : 


610 


. 3,150 


1925-26 ; 


677 


395 


191 


115 


1,397 : 


613 


' 3,338 


Lzi^ O— iC /' : 


OO 1 




2o0 


ibi 


1 , 0 ; 


CA Q 

b'ld 


, o,4tyo 




0 




.00 2 


lib 


1 0 • 

1, I'o : 




0,0/0 






c; "7 




IbO 


1 , 1 u ; 


598 : 


3,999 


1929r-30 cy: 


813 : 


305 


163 


127 


, 1,450 : 


704 


3,562 


1 J J J— J ± c / . 


000 ; 


/I -Tl 


i^O D 


^i-j 


1 , «j bo • 


725 


3,813 


1^ jl— cy . 


Q Q 0 


OIJ4L- 


0 0 C 


± (O 


1 A 'ZQ • 

1 , 4irO 0 ; 


734 


3,769 




. ' 


" "sftnr" -q' 

kj u w 0 









Ico per 


■faushjl 




SMpr.aonts , 


accovjited 


Total 


Total 


BritTsli"' " 




3 H":i,rd' 




± X UUi 


X U X 


siipp \~J 






: 'fint^^'r at 




.i-L ' 1 0 0 1 Cij 1 


d / 




anc 0 




: Kansas Cit;', 
: woislitod 














: avor.a^o , 




-"•7."" " — . 

i ill lion ; 


ini 111 on 


i 1.11 ii on 


" : r."-, "-, ■ 

, bullion 


■ 








"busliols ; 


iDUSilols 


busliol s 


IdusiIoIs , 


Ooii. 0 s 


C ont s 


T Q oi on 
iy<v/i— iCti « 


Qj 




^ /I Q 0 

■D , 4L-0 A. 


1 Q''■^ 
0 , lyj 






120 


1 O O O O 'X < 

± J (o— J • 


n 

( . 


0 Q 0 


K 0 0 
(J , 0 (0 




loo 




113 










0 , D'ii 


Xk, 1 




105 


1924-25 : 


f/ ; 


349 


3,499 


000 


179 




135 






0 r; 


0 , by 


■J , 4!riO 


JL f\J 




1G3 


1926-27 : 


49 : 


279 


3,821 


3,481 . 


164 




135 


1927-23 ; 


5 


340 


4,020 


3,587 


154 




135 


1923-29 : 


tJ ■ 


433 


4,432 


3,816 • 


129 




112 


1929-30 c/: 


7 ; 


616 


4, 135 


3,626 : 


131 




120 


1930-31 c/: 


111 : 


559 


. 4,488 


3,847 : 


80 




76 


1931-32 c/' 




641 












slJ J::clvAi 


)s Paissia. 














"b / Zy.c liid^. 


js Rxissi:. c 


.;nd Onina. 













c/ Preliminary. 

d^'^ rJstiinatos of stoclis rovisod to represent ca-rrj-over in tAo 
and siippliGs available for o::port and cc.rry-ovor in Ar;;;ontina, 
Canada, tiio United ICinjda.i port stocAs and supplies afloat. 
0/ iTot availa"ble, 
fj Loss tAan 500,000 busliols. 



United St..tes 
Australia <,~nd 



\7H-71 



-5- 



Prices ^ 

There was a general improvement of wheat prices in the princip.il marlzets 
outside the United States during February, Ijoth cash and futures prices making; 
significant gains. In the United States, however, while there wi'.s some further 
i .iprovcment in the price of ruttires, c";.sh prices showed no significant change 
from levels prei^ailing in Januar;;, For some time past, prices in tlie United 
States have loeen unusually' high relative to Liverpool prices. Ithough prices 
of U.:ited States futures improved slightl;"' during Fehrur.r^', the rise of Liver- 
pool futures was somewhat greater, and even Chicago futures prices are not now 
as high relative to Liverpool as the:/ vi/ere dv.ring the latter part of January, 

The v/eighted average price of all classes and grades at 6 markets in the 
United States was 59.0 cents per "bushel for February comparel with 61.3 cents 
during the previous month. This decline, hov/ever, was due to a smialler pro- 
portion of sales of the higher priced wheats rather thin to a decline in the 
prices of the individual grades, .it Ivlimeapoli s, it is true that LTo. 1 Dark 
Northern Spring declined fro..i 77.0 cents in January to 75.6 cents in February 
and ho. E Amher Durura declined from 86.9 cents to 85.9 cents. However the 
avera'^e prices of some of the other grades of wheat increased slightly. At 
Kansas City, ITo, 2 Hard '/inter rose from an average of 52.5 cents in Jaraiary to 
53.8 cents in February, while at St. Louis, No. 2 Red V/inter advanced from 56.5 
cents to 57,5 cents, tut, on tlie other hand, LTo. 2 Dark Hard V/inter at h .nsas 
City aver./.ged lower in February than in January. Altogether, there was no 
significant change in the aver .ge level of the various individual grades of cas"- 
whoat in the United States mar.:ets until l.Iarch 14. 

Early in February, there was a small decline in the f\itures prices at 
the principal United States markets, I'xa;.'' fv'jires at Chicago declining from a 
close of 59-7/8 cents on the first to 57-1/6 cents on tae ninth. This was 
follov/ed "by an irregnilar rise in the following ten days which "brought closing 
prices to a high of 62-3/8 cents. At Liverpool, on the other hand, prices 
converted at current e::cha,nge rates, showed a fairly steady upward movement 
from early February through the 24th of that month, the rise "being from a lov; 
closing level of 55-1/4 cants on the sixth (compared with 56-1/8 cents on 
Fe"bruary 1) to 52 cents per hushel on the 24th. Su.t sequent ly, there w-s some 
recession in Liverpool prices and during the first eleven days of Iferch, hJay 
futures at that market averaged close to 60 cents per "bv.shel. During the last 
wee":-: of Fe"bruary and early Iiarch, price mo'-ements of v/heat in terms of British 
currency at Liverpool were qiiite different from the movement of prices 
converted to United States currency "because of a marked advance in the British 
e;cchan-_,e rate. The decline during the last week of Fe'oruary was much greater 
in terns of British ciirroncy and v/as continued during the first part of Iiarch. 

V/innipeg and Buenos Aires prices fluctuated much m.ore nearly in unison 
with Liverpool prices than with prices of Chicago futures. Thus, the closing 
prices of V/innipeg I.Iay futures on Fe"bruary 1 y;a,s 54. S cents per "bushel from 
v/hich they declined to 54.3 cents which was the lowest closing level of the 
month, and then rose to a high closing level of 50.9 cents per "biishel on the 24th. 
There followed a decline to 58,7 cents on Iiarch 1, after which there ':ja.s some 
strengthening. 



On the Continent of Jiiro.-c prices of domssoic v/Iie .t increased, aatex-i-ill-- 
di-.rin{:; F'eloriiar;^ and i.iost of tlie advances \/ere retained during^ early I.arch. 
At Berlin there was a rise froa 150 cents per "bv.shol for tlie v/eek of Janu^.ry 
29 to 161 cents for the v;ejh of Feloruarj 19, follov/ed V- a sli^^lit recession to 
153 cents per "biishol for tlie vieolz of jL.rch 10. ht Paris the rise v/as frora 
16G cents per "bushel for the v/oe': of Feoruar:; 5 to 17o cents for that of 
Fehru?.r7 2o, v;hilo in tho tv;o f ollov;in£;- \;Gehs the price v/as 1 cent per "bushel 
lov/er. at hilan prices of doniestio wheat rose from 1'53 cents per bv.shel for 
the weeh of Januar3'" 29 to 17C cento for the v;eeh of Fe"bruar;/ 26, t"ae latter 
qLiotation ■bein{5 continued for the tjo follo\7in^' '-/eehs. 

'The improvement in prices in the principal world marhets has 3.pparentlp 
heen associated vdth some rela:r.ation in ii.iport and millin-:-, restrictions on the 
Continent of .Hurope, together with a snail decline in v/orld shipments froa the 
levels v/hic.i they reached imaoaia.tely foliowinc the heginnin^ of the heavj' 
Doveiiient of new crop wheat from the Southern Hemisphcr:,. 



^-71 ^7- 

TalDle 2.- V>aicat: PriCv.- pur "busliol at specified. rnar::jts, DucciAor 4,1931 - 

.llarcli 11, 1932 



nnfl ">fl 


.Kansas . 


liinna- 


:'.''ini':i- 


jjwonos 


: "Liver- 


; G-roo/c 








Cit: 
Cents 


•apolis 

... .V. . . 

Conts 


: poo 

: Conts 


Airos 
C^nts 


•oool 
C on t s 


.Britain 
. Conts 


Liorlin 
G'-^nt s 


Pari s ; 
Go. '.ts 


I'ilan 
Conts 


Doc , 4 


53 . 6 


76.8 


: 45 . 7 


41.3 


5 9 . 6 


59.1 


143 


162 


14-4 


11 


5 *3 • 3 


72,9 


: 43 . 7 


41.6 


59,1 


56. 7 


138 


162 


1-44 


13 


53.4 


73.8 


42.7 


40.8 


55 . V 


57.2 


137 


lo3 


146 


24 


51.3 


73 . 2 


: 41.3 


42 . 4 


57.5 


55. 


138 


166 


150 


31 


51.0 : 


74. 1 


: 41. 6 


42. 9 


58.1 


54. 7 


140 


166 


153 


Jan. 8 


, 51.6 . 


74 . 2 


: 'hd . 1 


42 . 7 


5 1' . 9 


54.3 


14 o 


163 




15 


5-j. 1 


77.3 


: 43 . 0 


41.9 . 


50.7 


53. 7 


145 


166 


155 


O O 


54.2 


78.8 


: 44 . 1 


41 . 2 : 


54. 8 


54. 0 


■ 146 


170 


154 


29 


51.5 . 


76, 3 


: 4..1 ■ 


39. 9 


53. 7 


53.2 


150 


169 


153 


?0D . 5 


53.7 ; 


77.5 


45 . 2 


4-1. 7 


55 . V 


52.4 


156 


153 


158 


12 


51.3 : 


75.9 


: 4-5 . 2 


42. 7 ; 


58. 7 


51.4 


15 7 


172 


lo3 


19 


54.1 : 


ro»b 


\ 48 . 6 , 


45 . 7 ' 


62.4 


52. 4 


ioi 


i 1 5 


169 


26 . 


54.3 : 


77.3 


: 51.1 ' 


43.1 : 






. 159 


176 


, 172 


I lar . 4 


52.4 : 


75.4 


: 50.7 


47.3 






159 


175 


172 


11 


52.9 : 


75.5 


: 52.1 : 


43.2 






153 


175 


172 



Pric-js aru averages oi" daily prices for v/eol:s ondin;^ Jriday oizcopt as follo;;s: 
Groat Britain prices of no;.io crouii v;lioa,t .are avorayos for tne r/oek ending- Satnrda;. 
Borlin, P ris, and I.Iiltui prices are '.7ednesday quotr.tions. Prices at "Tirjiipos, 
BvLGiios ^'-iros :.,nd Liverpool are convortod to United St.ut^s ;ajncy 7.t the current 
rates of orclian^^^e boginnin^l^ v/it/i t^io v;oeIc ended Septemtor 25. Prices at Borlin, 
Paris -^iid L'iloji are converted at the current rates "bo{;;i:ii"in;_, o^pteiiber 2. 
a/ Ho, 2 Hard "/inter. \J Ho, 1 D:.>,rk ITortlurn Spri.n^. cy'' I'd, 3 Llanitoba ITortliorn 
d/ Hear futures, qJ All sales of iuiportod parcels, if Zo!ne--^ro'.";n ^jylieat in 
■Jn^lcuad and '.Tales, g/ Doniostic, 'I'.arkischer" v/keat 58-59 povjads pjr './'inchestor 
"busnel , 



Ta"ble 3.- vrneat: '.7ci^,Ilted a.verage casii price at stated raa,rl:ets, b^" 

v;ool:s, Decoaber— iarcli, 1930 and 1931 







-.11 classes 


Ho, 






0 , y ■ 


J. . 


0. 


0 


i.O 


0 


. "-'/o stern 


V/eelc 


■ and .';,rades 


Hard 


inter 


. D":.iI,Sprin^; 


A'.ibor 




.Red "," 


inter 


: '.Tnito 


ended 


six r.iarkets 


ICansas 


City 


i -innoapoli s : 


r.iiinoapolis 


.St, L 


oui 3 


: Seattle a/ 






1930 


1931 


.1930 


1931 ' 


.19_':5p 


Vl93l'"": 


l9'3b' ' 


:l' 


931' 


'1 ^ 30" 


ri9"3l 


ri9'3b"' 


.1931 ' 






Cents 


0 onts 


C t s : 


Con-ts 


. jonts 


':Cfoirts'.' 


Cents' 




onts 


Cents 


: C ent s 


: Cents 


: Conts 


D:;c. 


fy. 


73 


o >^ 


71 


' 54 ' 


"73 


■• " '"^'7 


" 75 ' 




73 ' 


34 


53 ' 


: " 70" 


64 " 




11 


74 


o2 


72 ; 


53 


. 79 


. 73 ; 


76 




34 


35 


: 57 : 


: 68 


: o3 




13 


73 


o2 


71 ; 


'J J 


77 


: 74 : 


73 




32 


31 


: 5B 


: 65 


o4 




25 


72 


53 


70 


51 


76 


: 73 ; 


72 




3-i 


n -) 


: 57 


; 65 


54 






1931 


1932 


1931 : 


1932 


,1931 


:1932 : 


1931 


:1932 


.1931 


; 1 9"3 2" 


:Y931 ' 


.1932 


Jan . 


1 


71 


53 


69 : 


V] 


75' 


' '74 ': 


" ' 72 " 




■33 ■ 


8l' 


:' 56 


: 66 


' 55' 




8 


71 


59 


69 ; 


52 


'/5 


: 74 : 


72 




86 


73 


: 57 


: 56 


64 




15 


73 


61 


71 : 


53 


. 78 


: 77 ; 


73 




36 


79 


; 56 


: 66 


. 64 






72 


63 


d9 ; 


54 


77 


: 79 : 


73 




90 


30 


: 53 


: 65 


57 




^9 


71 


61 


69 ; 


51 


75 


: 77 : 


72 




35 


76 


: 56 


; 56 


54 


P.-b. 


5 


71 


60 


69 : 


54 


75 


: 78 : 


72 




36 


7G 


57 


: 66 


o4 




12 


. 71 


57 


. 69 : 


52 


76 


: 76 : 


73 




34 


79 


: 56 


: 66 


51 




19 


71 


58 


69 : 


5-'- 


75 


: 77 : 


74 




36 


79 


: 53 


; 65 


53 




26 


. 71 


60 


70 : 


55 


. 75 


: 77 • 


73 




86 


30 


: 53 


: 65 


63 


- - :ir . 


/l 


71 


. 59 


. 70 : 


52 


75 


; 75 : 


71 




35 


73 


: 57 


: 66 


o3 




1 


71 


59 


. 70 : 


53 


: 75 


: 76 : 


71 




31 


79 


; 56 


: 66 






/ce.ilj- average of daily 


casli 


quota 


tions b 


;-.si s 


"'0 


. 1 sacked 


30 d 


ys delivery. 



'JiI-71 



-8- 



Hable 4.- V/lieat: Avora ,c prica por tusliel of parcjls of specified 
doscriptions, c.i.f. at Liverpool, specified 
periods, 1930-1932 



Period 


ijo. 3 lianltolDa northern | 


Ro safe 











I93Y-32' " : 


1930-31 ; 


.. - . . 
1931-32 






C ent s : 


Gents : 


Cents : 


G ent s 


July 




lUo 2 


00 . 


103 : 


57 






■ 104 ; 


oU . 


107 : 


55 


Se )t. 




913 ; 


Do : 


86 : 


54 


Oct. 


• • • « o . • < 


87 


C Q 

by 


82 ■ : 


54 






79 : 


DO ; 


76 : 


63 




* * 


75 . ; 




68 : 


54 






71 


do 
be 


61 • : 


52 


FelD. 




72 




63 ■ ! 






3elc ended ; 










Dec . 


4 ....... 


77 


61 


70 


55 






77 


bl 


. ■ 71 


53 






73 


bU 


69 


54 






70 


: 60 


: 63 


53 


Jan. 


1 ..... 


69 


; 59 


! 60 


: 53 






72 


: 61 


: 63 


: 54 








: 62 


; 62 


: 53 




22 ..... . 


; 70 


; 63 


: 60 


52 






: 70 


; 62 


; 5S 


1 51 


FelD. 




: 72 


: 61 


: 60 


: 52 






: 73 


: 61 


: 63 


: 53 








: 64 


: 64 • 


; 56 










; 64 





Conpiled irora Brooraliall's Daily Corn Trade ITows. 



vIK-71 



-9- 



TalDlG 5.- V/lieat: Closin 



pricos of Hay futures, s;; 
193 0 and 1931 



xifiod dates. 







Chicago 


'Kansas City 


'Ilinnea-iolis 


''■/innipGG' a/ 


'Liverpool 


Tin+.r. 


























:1930 


;1951 


:_1_9_30__ 


:_1931__ 


:j.930 


.1931 


:_1930__ 


._1931_ _ 


.1930 


:1951 






Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


.Cents 


, Cr:i l bs 


Gents 


.Cents 


i.^cn L.S 


:Cent 


Doc . 


5 


81 


: 59 


74 


52 


75 


; 68 


: 64 


55 


77 


: 59 




12 


81 


: 56 


73 


49 


76 


: 65 


, 59 


52 


7 ^ 


: 58 




19 


81 


: 57 


: 73 


49 


76 


: 67 


5 6 


; 50 


57 


: 58 




26 . 


81 


! 56 


73 


: 49 


76 


66 


55 


51 


qJo2 


: 58 




31 : 


81 


: 57 


73 


50 


76 


68 


: 54 


53 


62 


: 58 






1931 :1932 


.1931 


.1932 


:1931 


;1932 


.1931 


: 1932 


.1931 


: 1932 


Jan. 


9 : 


83 


: 57 


74 


• ■ • — 

49 




77 




68 




56 


— • - - 

; 53 


63 


: 57 




IS . 


82 


: 59 


74 


51 


77 


69 


56 


54 


52 


: 55 






82 


58 


74 


50 : 


77 


. 68 


57 


53 


. 61 


: 55 




30 : 


82 


59 


73 ; 


50 • 


76 


69 . 


58 


54 


61 


: 55 


Fel). 


6 : 


82 


. 58 . 


73 


50 


77 . 


68 


62 


. 55 


53 


: 55 




13 : 


83 


. 61 : 


74 


52 : 


77 


71 


63 


58 


64 


: 58 




20 : 


83 


32 


74 


53 


7 7 


70 


65 


59 


b7 


: 61 




27 : 


82 


62 • 


73 . 


53 : 


76 


70 : 


59 


60 


53 


: 61 


liar . 


5 : 


32 


62 


73 : 


53 


76 : 


70 : 


60 


61 


63 


: 59 




12 ; 


82 


61 • 


73 . 


52 


76 


70 i 


59 


60 : 


o2 


: 59 



Bug no s 



GntsrCcnts 



Conversions OctolDor, 1931 to date"~t noon bi\yins rate 'of' 'e' 
Prices are of day previous to other prices, 
^■-arch futxires. 
?obruar-' futures. 
Decei-aber 29 -orice. 



:c/ 63 

:'c^/ 58 

:oJ 55 

:'£/ 48 

'.cj 49 

:1931 

:cj 50 

icj 48 

:cj 47 

:cj 47 

:cj 47 

:Cj/ 49 

:c/ 52 

: 52 

: 49 

: 50 



,chan':e . 



;Cjnts 

:d/ 44 
:"d/ 43 
:'d/ 43 

:d/ 43 
;d/ 43 

:1932 

:c/ 44 
:cj 42 
:c/ 42 
:cj 42 
:c/ 43 
:cy 45 
icj 46 
: 49 
: 48 
: 49 



_Crop Condi ti_ons 

Heports to date indicate that the 1932 v/hoat area in Europe does not 
differ ^^Q^tly from the acroa.:je sov;n for u^.c past harvest. France, Italy, 
G-er.Tiany, and Poland have increased their sowing, v/hereas, Spain and Suinonia 
havG rodticod acreaso. Conditions in ^Jestern Burope :/.t the beginiiin-' of I.iarch 
were reported as favorable hut the low terripcratures which occurred in jlastern 
Europe when there was little or no snow protection have caused some anxiety 
r0;i;ardin;;;; the crops. 

The increase in acreage in Fr.'ince is nearly 10 per cent as conp:\,red -..-ith 
last year. Conditions thro\i^hout the winter appear to have been generally 
favorable althou^'h somo winter damaso has been reported. Some complaints of 
dr^rnoss were made b\it rains during' the ear] part of the rresent month should 
have relieved this condition. 



',^1-71 



-10- 



Conditions in Italy also ap-^oo/r to 'oe- satisfactory- on an area sli^^'htly 
larger tlian last year. 

A survey of conditions in Canada, "by F. Callandjr, Cliisf of the 
Division of Crop .ilstimatos, indicated a prospect of sCinc docreasj in v/heat 
acreage in Canada "below last year's record acreage of 26,115,000 acres. He 
stated that if there are a.iple . earl"' spring rains the general opinion is that 
acreage will "be only si ightl5^ reduced, "but if rains are deficient a heavj^ 
reduction seems proha"ble. 

The situation is very uncertain, esp ..ciaJ-ly in southern Saskatchewan and 
Alherta. Mr, Callander states that three thousand, farmers liave noved out of 
sout"nern Saskatchewan in the past two years, A 'large percentage of the farrAers 
in those two provinces are entirelj"- dependent on -ohe Government for seed. It 
is expected that over 6,000,000 hushols of seed will he distributed in 
Saskatchewan alone, or s^iifficient to seed ahout a fourth of last year's acreage. 
Seed wheat is to he furnished to farmers whjro necessary to seed up to tv/o- 
thirds of their cultivated area. Last year wheat in Saskatchewan occupied 
a."bout two-thirds of the total area in field crops. 

In Ilanitoba the 1931 wheat acreage is expected to he .maintained hut an 
inG:"easo in the percentage seeded to durtim is expected at the expense of hard 
spring wheat. There is some trend to mixed farming which m£;y pull t^e wheat 
acroa^o down slightly. The Governi'aent is loaning some seed wheat to the farmers 
of Kanitoha also. 

The importance of spring rains is being especially emphasized this 
season because of the drastic effect of last year's spring drought when the 
rains in April and llay wore uniisually light in the West, '/eather records 
indicate precipitation in Saskatchewan and Alb-^rta for the period September- 
February to have been not far from the average in past years and greater than 
la,st yc-ar. liv, Callander reports the general opinion, however, that soil 
moisture in southern Saskatchewan oiid Alberta is deficient. 

Russia 

The latest estimates avail-blo oii the sowings of winter wheat in Russi.a 
for harvest this year is 32,3 million acres, m incrGi'use of 2.9 million acres 
or 9,7 per cent over the previoxis season. Ihis estimate was received by cable 
from the Internation\l Institv.to of Agriculture February 16. The same report 
placed the r2'"e area at 54.8 million acres, a decrease of 4.4 million acres or 
6.4 per cent. Weather conditions in Russia during Jjjiuary and February were 
generall considered iraf avorable. iHrring the first and last weeks of January 
snow covering w:.s either loxiking or very sc"-rce throughout the southern regions 
of the Union. Temperatures diiring the latter part of Januar:, .and throxighotit 
most of ?cbru/.ry v/ore q^iite severe. Snowfall was reported n,round the middle 
of Febru ry and since l;hen the entire covaitry appears to have been covered, but 
all private reports indicr^.te that the crop dr-j-aage during December and January 
was very severe. Some mention of d^unage has also occiirred in the Russian press. 
The Berlin office of the Bureau of Agricultural Sconomics believes that the 
v;inter killing of wheat this year will be large. 



-11- 



TliG "plan" for tho sprin;,, sov/inj C--jnpo.i£;n in Husui.''. ells for t:ij 
saodinc,' of 54.7 million "cos of -v'noat .ac coraprirol -.vitli G2.S i.uliion acres 
sown in the spring ox 1931. 'The press i? filled v/ith propaganda vjrgin;'_, 
thorouc;h and tirael^ Treparatiou so as to insure oettor yields and avoid dela;' 
in sowings which v;as so detri:,ient^il to yields last year. Preparations Lip to 
Ivjarch 1 laffced "behind those to the saane time last year throLv;hout the Uraon 
as a whole. The preparations for tlie southern re£;ions of the Union which 
would he the first to start sov/infj are somewhat further advanced, hut even 
in the Ulcraine, North Caucasus and Crimea, preparations are nuch "behind last 
year. Developments of the worl: durin;; the ne:ct lev.' we3::s will liave a very 
important Dearin;j upon the final results of tue spring sowing campaign. 



Tahle 6.- V/licat: V/intor acreage iii specified coi'jitries, 1929-30 

to 193.2-33 

Harvest " ear 



Coimtry 



United States 
Canada a/ 
Total . 
Belgi\ij;a . . 
Franc e . . 
Spain . . . 
Italy . . . 
Germany . . 
Bulgaria . 
Hiimania . . 
Poland . . 



Litnxiania 



Finland . 

Total 
Algeria . 
Tunis . . 

Total 
India . . 

Total 



Hussia 



1929-30 

1,0D0 
acres 



43, 

±\> 

12, 

10, 

3, 



S, 
3. 



51, 



133, 



340 
835 
225 
Mo' 
956 
622 
794 
631 
o35 
130 
335 
345 
23 
317 
■795 
7^32 
i327 
9"73 
54"2" 



23 , 74G 



1930-31 

I, 000 
acres 

43,630 
1_,042 
" 44,T7'2 " 
"409" 
12,977 

II, 133 
11,730 

3,996 

5,875 
3,714 
381 
3_0 
54,_272" ' 
"4,"027"~ 
1,922_ 
5,"94"9_'" 
"31,654" 

'13 5V5T7~ " 
25, 172 



1931-32 

1 , 000 
acres 

43,149 
^560 
' 4 3', 7 0'9 



389 
11, 724 
11,245 
11,990 
4, 553 
2,819 
7,863 
5,344 
410 

547969 
~ ■3/535 
1,_927 
" 5', 462' 



136,321 



29,468 



1932-33 

1,000 
aci es 

33,632 
518 
■39, 200' 



38C 
12,894 
10,601 
12,031 
4,830 
2, 884 
CJ 5,594 
4,000 
376 
30 



53,678 

2,100 

"4V57Y' 
'e/33,745' 
' 13'l ,'l94 



32,337 



Percenta,_,e 
1932-33 is 
of 1931-32 

Per 

cent 

89.6 



99,7 
110.0 

94.3 
100.3 
104.9 
102.3 

71.1 
104.1 

91.7 

93.8 



97.7 
"■69".V 
1 09 .0 

■ sY.y 

'104.9' 
"9 6. "2 



109.7 



Compiled from official sotirces and' reports Vf the International Ins~titute of 
Agricul ttire. 

a/ Area sov/n up to October 31. h/ Total area. 

c/ Agricultural Attache* "liohael ...t Belgrade estiraates the winter acreage 
sown for the 1932 harvest at 5,987,000 -cres. 

_d/ Area sovni up to Decemher 15. Further so\7in,;,s have heen made since that d .te. 
ej Second estimate. 



-1.2- 



\Fneat Prospects in the United States 

'J7inter wheat 



The area seeded to v/int-r wheat for the 1952 croy C'xaoMntod to 38, 682,000 
acres, 10.4 per cent less than that seeded for the 1931 crop. The condition 
of the crop on Decernher 1 v/.as the lowest, with t\/o exceptions, in tl:e p:.st tv/o 
decades. Durino' the past ten years winter wheat seedinGS ahandoned- hof ore 
harvest have averaged ahoiit 12,6 per cent. Last ye-^.r onl"/ 5 per c.ont was 
ahandonod. Average ahandoninent, therefore, v/ould reduce the v;inter wheat area 
to he harvested ahoiit 18 per cent below that harvested in 1931. Average :/ield3 
on the redticed acreage would produce a v/inter wheat crop ar.io-anting to ahout 
500 million hushels, which would "be 287,000,000 hushels less than the production 
of the past season and 120,000,000 less than the average of the past five years. 

Reports "by States indica.te that, with average ahandoni'ient and average 
yields, the production would "be approxiiiiately 320,000,000 bushels of liard red 
winter wheat, 140,000,000 bushels of' soft red winter, and 40,000,000 bushels 
of white. This would produce a surpliis of hard red v;inter r.iore than siiJficient 
to offset the deficit in other winter wheats. 

The Departraent will report conditions as of April 1, and abandoriiucnt 
together v/ith conditions as of I'lay 1. 

Spring v/heat 

The area of spring wheat will, of course, be deternined by spring 
seeding conditions, as well as the ability or intentions of farmers to seed 
wheat. A report of the intentions to seed spring wheat will be issued by the 
Department I.Iarch 24. Spring seedings were reduced in 1931 and tlie area 
harvested amounted to oxilf 13,940,000 acres, the smallest since 1896. A 
spring wheat crop as large as th.'.t of 1930, when yields were abon.t average, 
would amotmt to about 250,000,000 bushels, malting the total 750,000,000. 
A rct-arn to 1930 'acroage v;ould, of course, be an addition of about 6,000,000 
acres to the area harvested in 1951. Difficulty in obtaining seed and depressed 
conditions gen..;rally may, of course, have a tendency to redvLCC acreage fro:vi •./hat 
it was in 1930, though some increase over the 1931 h;;,rvested acrcige is to bj 
e:cpected. 

A winter v/heat crop amovjiting to 500,000,000 bushels, plus 250, 00,), 000 
bushels of spring wheat, would produce 750,000,000 bus-i.;ls, still somewhat 
larger than the crop of 1925 -.-/hich ai'icontcd to only 677,000,000 bushels o: 
wheat . Should the feed grain production be about ■nori:ial so that there wouild 
be no unusual demand for wheat for food, the surplus from the new crop vo-jJ. d 
still amovait to about 100,000,000 b-ashels. A rodxicticn in yields below average 
and any abandonjaont greater than average would, of course, tend to reduce the 
production closer to a domestic b sis. 

Surpluses for llxport and OoA-ry-ov^-r 

•Small increases in the estimates of the whe.-t crops of Argentina and 
Australia make necessar:^ so-.ie revisions in the cstii.iates of tlie apparent 
siirpliises available in these coxmtrios for the 1932 crop mar:cctir^. ;-ear. Tliese 
changes, together with exports during February and a slight increase in the 
combined quantitijs afloat ar.d United llirigdom stocks, are -'oaken account of 



-13- 



i:i t'le followim. estiriiato of siimlusos. Surpluses availa"ble for errport and 
carry-over in tlie 4 princi'j)al exportin']; countriea, -'co"^<jtheT v/itli United 
Iviia/i'dora port stoclis and qu'Autities reported afloat c-.re indicated to be about 
900 nillion bushels as of Inarch 1, cor.ipared v/itli 930 million a I'ear earlier 
and 766 million on tiia corresponding^ date of 1930. 

The supplies of wheat this ;'ear are even r.iore heavily concentrated 
in llorth America than they were a year earlier. Ar-^^antina and Aiistralia are 
indicated to have a,vailabla only about 195 million bushels cor.nared with 
258 million list year. In 1930, the two Sout]iern Henisph-ere countries had 
on lir.rch 1, 143 million. ' 

Last year the exports of the 4 principal exportinc; coijitries included 
in these calculations amounted from Inarch to June inclusive to 244 million 
bushels, iYorld shipments thus far tliis season have follo\;od a course quite 
similar to that of last year, and have been at approxim..,te ly the same level. 
For the period, July to Llarch 4 diiring the current so^vson, thjj amounted to 
503 million bushels, compared with 492 million during the corresponding 
period of 1930-31. Last year, after averaging in the vicinity of 14 to 16 
million bushels per 'jeek from mid-January to tlie middle oi April, tl^ero vrts a.n 
increase in shipments during April and the average of total shipments for 
the last three months of tiie crop year was 16 million bushels weekly. 

Table 7.- V/heat: I.Iarch 1 surplus for ojcport and carry-over in 
the 4 principal exporting countries, Uxiitod Zingdom port 
stocks, and stocks afloat for United Kingdom, Continent 
and orders, 1930-1932 



Co-cu:itry or position ] 


1930 


1931 ; 

• 


1932 


:I-illion 


bushels 


; I ■ i 1 1 i on bushc 1 s : I.Ii 1 1 i on 


bushels 


United St .t-s, domestic gcs-in; 


' 343 


354 : 


400 


Cano.diaai grain : . 


32 


18 : 


15 


C?jiada, domestic grain r.J : 


192 : 


224 ; b^/ 


189 


United States grain: 


7 


5 : 


28 




73 ; 


130 : 


103 


lustrr.lia cj . : 


55 


128 : o/ 


86 


Total . 


YiY" 


'859""~ 


~~8~ " 


United Kingdo.a port stocks: 








Tneat ...... o .. : 


12 . 


12 






1 : 


1 ; 




Afloat for United Kin;;,dom : 


10 . 


16 : 




Afloat for Continent ; 


13 : 


24 : 






13 i 


13 : 




Total £/.... : 


49 




"■74""" 


Grand total . . . : 


""76G 


930 : 


""9'00" ■ 



a/ Years 193~0 and 1931; carry-ov.a- Juiy'lfl pYus' liet cYpoVtV," lAr^^^ 

b/ Carry-over July 31, 1931, plus production, less danestic utilization and net 

exports Augaist l-Lecembjr 31 cjid tot.:.l exports during J-nuCvry and February. 

c/ C:„rry-over, J.-iiauary 1 plus production, less domestic -L.tilizr^tion and exports 

d-jjTing January cjid ?obrua.ry, d/ Official report of ]:.rch 5. 

_o,/ The estimate of the 1931-52 \vhe,_.t production in Atistr aia h 3 been incveasod 

from 170,966,000 bushels to 175,008,000 bushels since tie compilation of Table 3 

appearing in ;riI-70, February 20, 1932. 

fj Broomhall's estimate. 



7/H-71 



-14- 



Tlie Carry-over of V/lieat in iiie United States, Jul"' 1, 1932 



'Tlie availa"ble dat-i arc not G-uiTicient to provide tl\e iD^.sis for an 
accu.r:.te indication of carry-ovjr , tut roi;^:n estiuicates ' sv._,;;^est th■^t tlie 
carr3'-over of v/heat in tlie United otates on July 1, 1932 .vii lit "be larger than 
a year earlier. Tlie carry-over a,s of Julj 1, 1931 was estiaated to 'be aliout 
519 million 'ousliels of ;vheat. Since tli3 farm stoc.cs as oi J.Iarcli 1 are 
indicated to Toe 207 million "busliels wliicli is 46 million o\i,:.l.els greater than 
a year ago and the , vi sihle supply is somewhojt larger than a 7 ear ago, it seecr.s 
qtiite likely that the total carr;— over at the end of the season may he larger 
than at the end of the past season. In making this statement we are not 
overlooking the fact that conditions are such 'as to encor.rage the holding of 
larger stocks on farms, Lov; prices and a shortage of corn in so ie areas 
have contrihuted toward the liolding of v;heat for feedin'j. Conditions are such 
also as to encourage larger local milling, cmd uncertainties as to next year's 
crop will encourage some farmers to hold old wheat against the possihilit^ of 
a small crop of new v/heat. Feeding ojad m.illing hetween r.ow and the end of the 
year may tend to reduce the fcarm holdings more nearl-^' to those at the end of 
the past season. The ^^mo^^Jnt of wheat fed on farms producing wheat may e::ceed 
that of the past season when it amounted to ahoxit 15? million "bushels. 
Commercial mill grindings to date have fallen ahout 15 million hiishels "behind 
those of the corresponding period of a "ear ago. It is believed that custom 
mill grindings have heen incrc i.sed to some extent and that comiuercia-l mill 
grindings for the rem.ainder of the season are likely to he as large, if not 
larger than in the corresponding months 01 a year ago. Ihis expectation is 
hased in part upon Red Cross milling and in part iipon the assunption that it 
will he necessary to make up sor.io po.rt of the deficiency in grindings of the 
past fov; months. 



fable 8.- \7heat: Farm stocks and cor.imercial visible suppl^'' as 
of liarch 1, 1924-1932 



Year 



Farm stocks 
Liar. 1 
1, 000' Tu sheTs" 



C ommer c ial vi s ib 1 
.. supply 
Liar. 1 
■1,000 bus-ieis 



1924 
1925 
1926 
1927 
1928 
1929 
1930 
1931 
1932 



137,721 
112,095 
100,174 
130,274 
130,944 
151,396 
129,402 
161,442 
207,323 




72,914 
76,437 
48, 105 
56,2b2 
72^858 
125,377 
160, o74 
200,650 
216,282 



Division of Statistical and historical Research, 13tiroau of 
economics. 



..aricv.ltural 



Br^dstrccts visible sv.pply. 



^-71 



-15- 



Shan^ai flour mills operated irregularly dur^' n - Peliruary, according 
to a caMed rciDort from Agricultr^reJ Coroi-.ussioner Dav.'son at Siian.-hai. Some 
improvement v/as noted during the first part of March o.nd h; the 12th of the 
month :.iills rrcre o-ocrating aloout 75 -oer cent of the total capacity compared 
vith onl" 60 ^;cr cent at the Ijcjinning o_^ the month. The currency situation 
continues to hamper husincss especially ac the small mills. Ei_.ht cargoes 
of .Vastralian and three cargoes of Canadian v'heat arrived at Shanghai during 
Pchraary. T'^'o cargoes of Australian and three cargoes of Canadian v.'heat 
arrived" hetv/een March 1 and March 12. Ho .Vricrican v.lieat has hcen received 
cxccot the -.heat for Flood Relief Co. u.-.ission. ' 

Australian v/heat is exoccted to dominate the Shanghai market during the 
remainder of the season hecauso of its more favorahle price quotations. Fairly 
large ccL-iitinantB- were made previous to Fehruary 1 for shipment from Australia 
to Shanghai after April 1. The quality of the Australian wheat is high this 
season. ^ , ' 

Australian vhoat for llarch paid April shipment is quoted at 58 cents per 
hushel, Canadian ITo. 3 for April shipment at 62 cents per hushel and American 
'.Vostern Vrnitc and Western Hed at 65 cents per hushel. 

The export demand for Shanghai flour is good and with the ret^arn of 
normal conditions a large outward movement is expected. Prices advanced 
slightly during February hut at the close of the month had declined to the 
saj-ic level as at the hcginning. The flour exchange remains closed. 



- Lo- 



Ta'ole 9.- Japan: Imports ?-'.d exports of v/heat and v/heat 

flour, 1924 - 1931 





Imports 


Gal endar 








'.heo.t 


year 


.meat 


■.Vheat flour 


including 










f 1 o"CLr 


- — ■ 


Bushels 


Barrel 


Bushel s 


Bushel s 


1924 


25,976,564 


■ 93,472 


443,124 


26,419,688 


1925 


17,171,209 


51,691 


232 , 610 


17,403,819 


1926 


26,036,776 


82,493, 


3121,216 


26,407,992 


1927 


17,275,751 


226,239 


; 1,018,078 


18,293,829 


1928 


24, 349 , 680 


94,039 


, 423,178 


24,772,858 


1929 


26,966,506 


78,660 


353,970 


27,320,476 


1930 


: 17,776,399 


; 219,432 


987,442 


18,763,841 


1931 


: 26,543,153 


64, 541 


290,435 


. 26,833,588 




Expo rt s 


1924 




127,712 


574, 702 


574,702 


1925 


: Nd'' 


781,499 


3,516,744 


3,516,744 


1926 




1,151,410 


' 5,181,343 


5,181,343 


1927 


v/heat 


851,488 


3,831,695 


3,831,695 


1928 




1,613,829 


7,262,232 


7,262,232 


1929 


reported 


2,057,463 


9,303, 604 


9 , 303 , 604 


1930 




1,343,958 


6,070,310 


6,070,310 


1931 


• 


: 1,519,873 


: 6,839,449 


: 6,839,449 



Compiled from Annual Report of Forel ;n Trade of the Erapire of Japan. 



.■.^-:-7i 



-1/- 



Ta"ble 10.- \Tiieat and ITlour: Uniccd S r.tes ex?)orts to_ Ciiina 
(includirig Eori;^ Kong and K".7ant"aii^) and Japan 
(including Chosen), 1924 - 1931 





V/hcat 


Calendar ; 
year 


China 


Hong Kong : 


Kvvangtung 


Total 


Japan 
including 
Cho sen 




Eushel s 


Sushel s 


Bushels 


Bushels 


Bushel s 


1924 
1925 
1926 
1927 

1329 

1930 ; 

1931 

1932 


2,137,313 
390,732 
7^5,171 . 
303,346 
166,565 
1,124,583 
1,523,047 . 


0 
0 

13 

0 

5,998 
14,035 


66,666 
0 

o" 

12 ; 

0 

: 4,186 
0 


2,253,979 
390,732 . 
795,173 . 
303,3'}ll 
1 66 , 665 
. 1,134,857 
1,537,082 
12,216,391 


7,298,343 
3,572,900 
8,005,792 
4,104,919 
5, 600,033 
: 7,003,493 
: 6,403,136 
1,820,016 










VJheat Flour 




Barrels 


Barrels 


Barrels 


Barrels 


Barrels 


1924 
1925 
1926 
1927 
1928 
1929 
1930 
1931 
1932 


1,246,220 
220,061 
505,834 

: 507,737 
825,121 

: 1,174,678 
794,336 


1,000,508 
393,100 
436,273 
774.081 
937,520 
833,993 
: 857,541 


515,975 
. 285,769 
164,585 
128,101 
: 192,556 
• 905,318 
: 585,017 


2,762,703 
898,930 
1,106,692 
1,509,919 
. 1,955,297 
; 2,913,989 
; 2,236,894 
: 2,035,398 


122,826 
37,576 
18,515 
24,877 
54,002 
; 276,519 
I 68,475 
: 49 , 040 









Conpiled from Foreign Coi.jncrce and Navigation of the United Slates and Monthly 
Surnniar; of Foreign Cornriicrce of the United States, Dccomhcr 1031. 



Ta"blG 11.- Chino.: Iraports of vhcat and \.'hcat floiir, 

1924 - 1930 



il cndar 


TJhcat : 


'.Tn eat 


flour 


V.Tacat 
including; 

flour 




Bushel s 


3'\rrels 


Bushel 3 


Bushel s 


1924 


11,434,149 


4,474,415 


20,134,867 


31,569,016 


1925 


1,555,816 


1 , 913 , 585 


8,606,653 


10,162,449 




9 , <s36 , 396 


2 , -15, 050 


13,117,72b 


22 , 354, 122 


1927 


3,755,900 


2,601,819 


11,708,186 


15,464,086 


1923 


: 2,006,362 


• 4, 071 ,-363 


18 , 321 , 132 


: 20,32.7,994 


1929 


, 12,586,324 


: 8,119,249 


36,536, 620 


: 49 , 122 , 944 


1930 


6,138,311 


: 3,529,370 


15,882,165 


, 22 , 020 , 476 



Gomniled from Foreign Trade of China, Part I - Report and Alostract of 
Statistics. 

Danuhe Basi n ^iTheat Situation Duri n g re"bruary a/ 

Re\^orts current in the Danube Basin in late January and early February 
indicate a continued satisfactory confiition of winter seedings in spite of 
prolonged cold weather, which began on February 8 to 10. 

The cold weather was ima.iediately followed by snow which prevented damage from 
heavj- freezing. 

The effect of business depression was sharply felt on Danube Basin 
markets during the past mionth. The purchasing power of the uopulatims of 
Danubian comitries has decreased f"arther, and sales of flour by mills has 
reached an exceptionally low level. Curtailed exrports have cnntinued and 
total marketings during the latter part of January and first half of Febru- 
ary have been reduced belov/ the usual seasoral slump. 

Q-overnment aid to wheat growers continufts to ineet with considerable 
difficulty. In Bulgaria it is feared that the Government Monopoly will not 
be able to maintain a com-plete control over wheat sales at high prices for ■ 
internal consum.pt ion, and may have to resort to other means in order to 
secure funds for payment of losses on its sales for expert. 

In Hungary the Goverrjnent has not as yet paid the expert premiurns on 
wheat that was exported during the period in v/hich export preraii^un payments 
were to be made (Ju.ly 1 t» October 18, 1931), The ametunt due to exporters 
as premiums is between $874,500 and $1,049,400, and the withholding of this 
sujn from, the exporters operating funds continues to cause difficulty m 
finar.cing grain marketings. 

In R-':aTiania the G-overrjr.ent continues tc have difficulty in paj'-ing the 
aicounts due as premiums. On January 16 the Ministi*y of Agriciilture had paid 
$3,700,782 as e'xport premiums, but about $1,500,000 remains vuipaid.^ An 
attempt m.ade by the Ministry of Agriculture ta obtain a loan of $1,200,000 



a/ Based on re-ort of Assistant Agricul.t-aral Ccmirdssioner J. Bernard Giobs, 
Belgrade, Yugoslavia, February 20, 1952. 



V/H-71 



\ 



-IS- 



from the ilational 3a.nk: for ■)ayin;:; export ^remiuj.is has not as -et heen 
successful, vne Ministry has announced that no ^^roaiuri ^ia;.-raent Fill be made 
daring tne -.resent fiscal year on ex )orts made after "December 1. r^21 the 
date on -'hich the Hinistry advised against f^^rther e:c;orts. ' ' 

. nr. f^S°=la^^if t^^^c Privile,red Export Com-anj^ has not been able to maintain 
a coimlete Iono-,oly control over sales for internal consui.r,tion, and a ^rther 
chan:;e nas been made in the Cor.pany's internal sales policy. Under the loresent 
plan comnercxal^ mills are required to the Comu^ ' in advance, a -or^'ce o? 
?l.oO per oashei for wheat that it wishes to obtain. Up^n receipt of ^Dayment 
the Com-oany notxfxes a nearby cooperative or merchant to deliver" the wheat, 
^^r "bul'Li r '^^'^^^^'^ Company's purchase price of 86 cents 

s^ste '■'^'^i/' delivered to the mill. It is ho'oed that this 

rr.ntli i r -possible for the Company to regain its Monopoly control 
wuh he 'i "'^^^^ cover- a large part of its eVort losses 

With .ne profit ootamed by these operations. 

on \l^pf;fd the Yugoslavian Goverament is now considering' a tax 

th.Tt f ? " ^ securing funds to cover losses on v^heat 

that has already been e^cported. 

Table 12.~?rice per bushel for wheat of comparable grades at Buda^Dest 
and ..:ovi-Sad. monthly October- December , 1 "SI and weekly January 2 - 
FebruaiT 13, 1932 pJ 



Period 

~~r9'31~~ 

Oct. 
Fov, 
Dec . 

19rj2 



Jan. 2 

9 

16 
23 

oO 

Jan. average 
7eb. 6 

13 



Budapest, Hungary b/ 

Cents 

47 
57 
65 

65 
64 
63 
64 
56 
54 
64 



Fovi-Sad, Yugoslovia c/ 



Cents. 

84 
84 
84 

35 
84 
84 
85 
84 
84 
84 
84 



Pcnro. T^""^^ December 31, 1931 from "Pester Lloyd," a Buda:oest 

f'^i' i''"'' '^-"'^^^^ ^' from official daily bulletins of the 

~Saf JoSrnS^'^'- ^''^'^ "Trgovinsl^i Glasnilc," a Belgrade 

aj Simole averages of daily trices for com-oarable grades in local 
V^Tl ^°^^^^^t^<i to United States dollars hy using exchar:ge rates on 
or JovpT Sf • Hungarian Pengc on the Zurich Exchange ceased 

rlV: r r ^""^"^ November 21, the average November gold pengo exchange 

l7ir..LlTf ''^^^ for converting Budapest prices into dollars. Budapest wheat 
prices have been quoted in gold Pengo since August 1. 

^ Tisza, 61.4r-o2.2 pounds per ^rashol, foreig-n matter not 

exceeding 1 per cent. In a^^dition to the auove market lorice the purchaser has 
ll-'^^?, T Wnel, representing the value -of the grain ticket, from 

vrnich tne farmer receives 29 cents. For wheat that is exoorted the 48 cents 
Gram ticket expense is refunded by the Goverment. ^ ^ontinuod 



-.20- 



TaDle 12. -Price per 'ojshel for wlieo.t of com;para'ble grades at E^idapest 
and JIovi-S<?-d, monthly October- EecemlDer, 1931 end weekly Janiiary 2 - 

Feb.r.iary 13, 1932 a/ - Continued 

cj From July 6 forward C-overnnent Mcnc'joly purchase price; Tisza, 
62.2 pounds per "bushel, 1 per cent foreign matter. 

One-half of the price is paid in cash, one-fourth in G-ovcrment 
honds payable one month after the purchase is made and one-fourth in "bonds 
paya"ble three months after the date of purchase. 

Mark et Conditions 

Hungarian grain markets 7/ere very inactive from January 15 to the middle 
of J'e'oruary. The principal causes of inactivity v/ere I'^w export demiand, re- 
duced home consumption, depleted stocks, and the withholding of v/heat "by pro- 
ducers with the expectation of better -irices after the conclusion of the 
Czechoslovak-Hungarian commercial treaty a/, or in the spring months after 
stocks have been depleted. Offers have been limited except in the case of 
first grade Tisza wheat which is readily purchased by mills and exporters. 

. Budapest mills were reported to have about 56,^^00 barrels cf flom- on 
hand on February 14, and to have recently purchased ddl,CCO bushels cf v/heat 
from the "ITutura" from stocks of the 193C crop. Purchases by Budapest miills 
have been curtailed as a result of decreased consumption, v/hereas medium sized 
provincial mills buy readily, at prices exceeding the Budapest parity, becau.se 
offers in the larger provincial towns are limited. 

About 1,286,000 bushels of wheat is held in provincial warehouses des- 
tined for use by the Goverrment in connection with its prograj'n to su--ply food 
to the needy. 

Activity on Rumanian wheat markets has been curtailed a.s a result of 
uncertainty regarding ex^^Dort prem.iu..;3, reduced home consumption caused by 
economic distress and a greater than usual corn consvmpt ion, as well as shipp- 
ing difficulties resulting frcva snow storms and frozen rivers. 

The monopoly control by the Privileged Ex^oort Conoany of Yujoslavia wheat 
frr internal consmption has failed, as it is reported that the Company's 
sales to mills represent only a small part of the wheat that mills are actually 
receiving. The ■ Cr^3-a-)any has recently changed its policy regarding sales to 
mills, and it is hoped that the monopoly control can be regained. However, for 
the time being, m.ost of the sales to mills comprises vrheat that is "bcrtlegged" 
by cooperatives and merchants at prices far below the G-overrjnent ' s established 
sale price of .$1.20 per bushel.. 

The present situation makps it impossible to estimate wheat marketing 
ao.c-;xa ely in Y-'Ogeslavia. It is believed, however, that sales are at a veiy 
low level as a result of curtailed consxHirot ion caused by depressed business 
conditions, and the cons^amption of large amounts of low priced corn in place 
of vvheat. 

a/ According to information from trade sources, Czechoslovakia importers 
have already made transactions with Hungarian exporters for future delivery. 



There have "been -oracticallv no new sales for ex^.ort during the past months 
as the Privileged Export Com^jany is filling almost all of its exoort orders with 
existin^ stocks held at home and ahroad. 

Pric ob 

In Bul-;aria the Gcverrj-nent Bureau continues to purchase wheat from farmers 
at 67 cents'-oer hushel a,/ Of this ^rice, 7C per cent is paid in cash, and 30 
per cent in taxation honds. Prices for sales hy the Goverrjrnent Bureau to ex- 
porters were -oractically unchanged during the past month. The 0 vernment Bureau 
sells wheat tr. mills for home consumption under monopoly control at 78 cents 
per hi:-shel, a/ 

In Yugoslavia the Privileged Export Company continues to pay 86 cents h/ 
-oer bushel for first grade Tisza wheat. Sales of wheat of the same quality to 
mills for internal cons-umption are made at ^1»2C h/ per "bus.-el. 

Uinter ?hoa t_ Sc^dlnn3_j;or_ thc 1932 Crop 

The acrea-e of winter wheat seeded in the fall of 1^31 is estimated at 
17,67-5,000 acres. This compares with 20,151,000 acres ^he revised estimated 
acreage seeded in the fall of 193C, and the ^year average fall seeding of 
18,04-4,000 acres. 

I'ost of the red-;.ction in this year's acreage is due tr a smaller acreage 
for Rumania, which is largely the res^olt of adverse weather conditions at seed- 
ing time. 

In Bulgaria returns ohtained hy the Bulgarian National Barifc from over 90 
per cent of'the national territory show that the acreage of winter wheat planted 
in the fall of 1931 was 99 per cent of the acreage seeded in the fall of 1930. 
This indicates a planted area for harvest in 1932 of 2,815,000 acres. 

There is no new evidence availa^ole concerning the acreage of winter wheat 
sown in Hungary in the fall of 1931, and the "orevious estimate of 3,872,000 
acres has teen held. ^ 

On Pehruary 1 the Rvar.anian !Unistry of Azricvltva-e published a provisional 
fi,-are concerning winter wheat seedings in the fall ^f 1931. According tc this 
estimate 5,594,000 acres Tf winter v/heat had been sown oy the end of Decemher. 
Early official acreage estimates published hy the Rumanian Ministry of .\gricul- 
ture in 1930-31 were increased later in the season, therefore, it has not "been 
thought advisable t^-change the previous estimate of the Danube Basin Office of 
5,987,00C acres. 



'aj Price for 59 pounds uer bushel wheat, with no rye and foreig-n matter. 
Standard adjustments are made for wheat of different quality. 

b/ Prices for other grades are proportionally higher or lower depending 
on quality. 

cj The revised estimate of the- Danube Basin Office of 20,151,000 acres 
com-oares with 20,025,000 acres efficially re^oorted by the croo reporting organ- 
izations of the resvective Goverrjnents. 



::-7i 



lievelooments^ in G overnaGT.t Aid 

Governinents in the Danuoe Basin continue their attempts to facilitate 
wheat marketing, "but are limited hy lack of f^inds and their inahility to J 
enforce laws and re/jalat ions inroosei on grain dealers, exporters, and mills. 

Negotiations for the conclusion of clearing agreements continue, "but 
no re;ports of the closing of new agreements have heen received. 

The principle of preferential commercial treaties made more effective 
'b;,'' clearing agreements hetv/een Ifeti nal Barlcs, was supported in a conference 
called "b7 the "paneuropa- Union" , held at Budapest, on Fehruary 12 to 14. 
Former C-overrjaental Hinisters and foremost economists of Austria, Czecho- 
slovaliia, Hungary, Poland, Ru'iiania and Yugoslavia v/ere present a.t the con- 
ference. 

The conference passed the follov.'ing resolutions: 

(1) That the economic crisis cannot he remedied unless all Eurppean countries 
comhine into one large economic territory. The first step in this direction 
should he the creation of. a common customs territory including the six count- 
ries represented at the conference. 

(2) The conference is convinced that the conclusion of mutual preferential 
agreements hetween the ahcve mientioned six countries is the most urgent task 
of the present moment. Since the combined territory of these six countries is 
not sufficiently large to ahsorh their production, it is essential tloat cooper- 
ation \''ith other countries oe devolcoed in all tranches of industry and commerce 

(3) It is recouuaonded that progag:anda he made in favor of preferential 
treaties. 

(4) Ec-onomie cooperation "between the countries represented should "be encour- 
aged "by agreements relating to the exchange of foreign c-urrencies and trans- 
portation. Industrial concerns should he developed and the agricultural 
countries should cooperate in every possible way. 

(5) The conference sends the ah-^ve resolutions , to the EvTopean Co mittee of 
the Lea^: ,ue 0 f Nations and asks the su'Toort of the Goijmittee. 

H-ungary is now negotiating for clearing a{i;reements through National Banlcs 
with Bel gi-irai, Erance, Great Britain, Italy, ■ and Itumania. It is reported that 
the clearing agreements alreai;^'- in existence with A^'.stria and Switzerland 
have given satisfactory results. 

Negotiations with' Czechoslovakia still continue. The conclusion of this 
treaty is delayed "by opposition from the Czechoslovalcian Agrarian Party. Ho^ ^ 
ever, it is hoped that an agreement' v/ill he reached in the near future. 

Ne.-otiations are in pro^.ress with Italy for a preference in customs duty 
on 7 million bushels of Hungarian whea.t. The conclusion of this ag-reement has 
been dele^i'-ed by difficulties in the exchange of currencies, and is therefore 
dependent on the success of present negotiations' pertaining to the clearing 
a- 'reoa-icnts between the N-tional Barnes. It is hoped that these agreements v:ill 
be concl:.ded before the 1932-33 cro;p begins to move. 



..'H-71 



The Suinanicn G-cverment has recentl;;'' sent a re'pres';ntat ive froui the 
■[iriistr7 ^^f Cormnerce to Budapest and Vienna to ne;;ctiate fcr a. quick settle- 
ivient of the foi-cijjn exchanfje a„^reements bctv/een these ccuntries and Runania. 
The Govornaent has alsc requested ro-xrts from the G-overninental Ilinistries 
concerninf_^ the de:;;ree to v.rhich the curtailment in ira-ports "by Austria and 
Hun jar" has influenced Humania' s -orcduction and ex jort. It is hcped that 
the estahlishment of clearing,' a-;;:reements v/ill re.ned;;^ the -iresent unfavorable 
situation. Kr' ever, Rmania will have to acceot an even "balance with Austria, 
and a balance with Hungary \.hich will m.-ke it possible for Eon -arian ■ ex;oort s 
to Rumania to be a multiple of Rviuanian exocrts to Hun-;^ar;7. 

The Continental Euro ^.c an 'Theat "arket Situation During February ay' 



2uro-:ea.n wheat markets shov.'ed a distinctly firmer tendency d'oring Febru- 
ary and the rapid depletion '-if domestic stocks led to a substantial reduc'-icn 
in the Italian and French milling quotas. Further modification of existing 
import barriers are ejroected in the near future. Trade circles now believe 
that in 3-criuary this m.ay even taice the fonn of a reduction in the Luport duty 
on a s'.ecified contingent, similar to last year. 

In the princi-oal im-oortin^- ccuntries the relative scarcity of desirable 
domestic su-plies and the restrictions on the immortaticn cf foreign v-heat 
have led to a rise in -orices of domxestic wheat. Prices of foreign wheat have 
a,lsoi strengthened. As a result, some co^ontries, such as G-ermary, are nov; 
seeking means to prevent a corres ^'Onding rise in bread -prices. 

The up'.vard movement cf prices was attributed largely to the increased 
buying interest cn the Continent where purchases consisted mainly cf Austral- 
ians and riates with a fair share of North American \-.heat being taken. Baring 
the second half of the mionth French purchases cf overseas wheat v/ere particu- 
lo.rly large. In addition maniet opinion was favorably impressed by the pros- 
pective benefits to be derived from the passage of the Glass- Ste.agall bill. 

Shipments of v/heat to Continental Europe, as well as to the United Kingdom 
and on order, shewed about the --siial seasonal increase for the four v;eeks end- 
ed. Febr-iary 11, but weekly shipments early in February eased off a little. 
Russian axd Dan-^ibe shipments Mere notably smialler, and chartorings from these 
countries fcr the next several weeks are alsc reported to be quite lev/. Further 
purchases cf Russian rj^e (repcrtei to be S,5CC,CCC bushels)by the German G-overn- 
ment are reported to have occ^jirred as a resiilt of the ccntinucd hea'vy faim 
disappears.nce of rye. 

As a result cf increased buying on the part cf flour mills, continental 
■:^crt stocks declined considerably from the middle of Jaimary to the m.iddle of 
February. A similar decrease occurred last year. Sf^cks in tv/elve continental 
ports on Febriiary 1 amounted to 8,010, CCC bushels compared with 11,574, COC 
bushels at the sa.;ie time a year ago. 



aj Based on a re-jort cf Assistant Agricultural Corrmissioner Donald F. Christy, 
Berlin, Germany, February '6'o, 1932, suupleraented by cable Ilarch / , 1932. 



Te'ole 13. -Price per "bushel of domestic vrhe-xt at S' ocified markets, 

Julv 2, 1931 - llarcii 2, 1932 



Date ' 


Paris : 


Milan 




Berlin : 
_ .. • 


Prague : 


Vienna : 


Poznan 


1931 


Cpnts 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


- 

Cents 


July 2 


190 • 


134- = 


172 


124 • 





84 


Auj. 5 


167 '■ 


130 


120 


116 '• 


104 • 


60 


Se )t. 2 a/ 163 : 


139 ; 


131 : 


102 


97 


65 


Oct. 7 


165 


134 


135 


110 


98 


61 


llOY. -1 


165 : 


141 ; 


147 


116 : 


114 


70 


Dec. 2 


162 


'144 


143 


117 


118 


76 


9 . 


162 


' 144 • 


138 


117 


119 


75 


16 


163 


146 


: 137 


117 


120 


75 


23 


: 156 


150 


: 138 * 


117 


119 


: 74 


30 


166 


153 


140 


: 117 


: 120 





19^:2 














Jan, i 


168 ; 





: 143 


115 


120 


75 


13 


166 


155 • 


145 


: 115 


118 


75 


20 


■ 170 


154 


146 


115 


118 


75 


27 


169 


153 


150 


115 


118 


72 


reb. 3 


: 168 


: 158 


: 156 


: 113 


: 118 


: 72 


10 


: 172 


; 1-3 


: 157 


: 113 


: 116 


: 74 


17 


: 175 


: 169 


; 161 


: 114 


: 116 


: 73 


24 


176 


172 


: 159 


: 116 


116 




Har. 2 


: 175 


: 172 


: 159 


: 117 


: 119 




9 


: 175 


: 172 


: 158 









aj Prices converted at current rates of exchange "beginning \".'ith this date. 



:'H-7i 



-Co- 



Table 14.-V'iieat and wheat flonr shipments to the continent, 

1928-29 to 1931-52 



i'our weelcs : 1-28-20 1929-30 ' 19oO-L;l ' 19S1-52 
ended : : ? : 

• -RHS^iels : 1,000 bushels : 1,000 b ushel s : 1 ,000 bu shels 

Au^. 27 ,.0 ...: 52,000 : 14,550 : 25,600 14,080 

Sept. 24 : 52,960 : 14,240 : 28,160 : 16,560 

Oct. 22 .51,560 : 14,720 : 25,040 : 24,160 

Nov. 19 ..: 56,400 : 16,760 : 20,720 : 25,240 

Dec. 17 : 29,280 : 19,560 : 16,000 : 18,240 

Jan. 14 : 27,720 : 9,496 : 15,560 : 9,760 

Feb. 11 : 26.120 ; 14.760 : 17.440 ; 15.120 

.-.ug. 1 to : : ' : : 

Feb. 14 . o , , - . : 215,640 ; 105 ,596 : 144,520 ; 12 5.160 



j-bove shipments: s : ■: 

supplied by- : : : : 

Danube ........4 1,896 : 1,968 : 9,544 : 24,200 

Russia 8 : 1,112 : 13,104 : 8,200 

Over s eas 215,936 ; 90,615 ; 1 21.672 ; 92,760 



■Table 15.- ''heat and v/heat flour shipments to Europe, 1928-29 to 1931-52 



Four v/eel-s : 1928-29 * 1929-50 ' 1950-51 * 1951-52 
e nded : ; : t 

'• lyO OO bushels : 1,00 0 bu shels : 1,000 busiiels : 1,000 bushels 

Av^'. 27 : 47,160 : 45,600 : 50,480 : 46,120 

Sept. 24 : 50,800 : 41,320 : 54,080 : 52,800 

Oct. 22 .0 : 50,600 : 40,120 : 53, 000 : 50,840 

is'Ov. 19 ...c..: 59,560 : 50,120 : 58,160 : 50,040 

Dec. 17 : 55,200 : 50,160 : 37,560 : 55,880 

Jaji. 14 .. ; 52,960 : 27,720 : 50,560 : 53,800 

Feb. 11 .... c , : 60,44 0 ; 36, 960 ?_ 43.260 42,600 

.:.ug. 1 to : : : : 

Feb. 11 : 574.7 20 ; 252.00 0 5 27,00 0 ; 512,080 



-■-bove shipments : : : j 

supplied by- : : : : 

DanuT3e 1,896 : 15,000 : 10,528 : 33,224 

R-assia 8 : 2,048 : 60,520 : 71,272 

Oversea s . . . . ..; 57 2,816 ; 25 4,952 » 256. 152 ; 207,584 



■,7H-71 



Table 16. -Continental Enro'oean stocks of wheat, middle of J-.nuary 

and ^ebruai-y, 1951 and 1932 





1951 ' 


1952 












Location 


Middle of 


iliddlo of 


i.Iiddlo of 


Lliddle of 




Jan. 


i^eb. 


Jan» 


Feb. 




1,000 ljushels ; 


1,000 bushels 


1,000 bushels 


, 1,000 bushels 


Antwerp ! 










^VXOiUXty/ •••• 


1,250 : 




2,870 


1,550 


Rotterdam 


a/ 9,370 i 


6,250 


5,230 


1,800 


Berlin (wheat 










and f lo-ar ) . . . 


b/ 1,870 : 


c/ 1,410 


1 . b/ 1,470 


. qJ 1,250 


Kaatfourg ( rough • 












■620 ! 


, , 460 


9E0 


850 


Bremen and 




4 ! 


4 


: : 22 


! 12 . 


German farm 








stoclvs (total) 


d/ 64,0u0 


e/ 50,100 


! f/ 64,400 


: g/ 54,400 



a/ Error in last report herewith corrected. 

b/ Hud of January. 

c/ End of l<'ebruary. 

d/ iliddle of December 1930. 

ey IViiddle of JC/nuary 1951. 

f/ Middle of December 1931. . . 

gj Middle of January 1932. •■ 

Crop C o ndition s 

In \7estorn Europe including Germany, France, Belgiim, and Eolland as 
well as Italy, the \/inter has been quite favorable to fdl-sovm crops, and 
present x^rospects are good. In eastern Europe, on tlio , other liand, considerable 
damage to winter crops is already reported in Poland and Gzechoslovaitia. ^ov 
-.ustria has as yet reported no damage, but the.sovoro weather and lack of snov// 
lead one to e^xject some damage to show up later on. Certain parts of Spain 
and Portugal are suffering from drouf>rb, v/hich appe.^rs to have been most 
serious in the latter country, ilcports on t::.:' Scandin.vi^ and Baltic countrie 
are very mccgor, but conditions tlioro are not especially favorable. 

Geirnany 

The \/inter has in general been quite mild and dry. Jrjiuary weather v/as 
generally favorable and the condition of crops v/^-s reported as good. Around 
the middle of February, ho\/ever, a cold spell set in which may have c-used 
some damage to crops, as thcrj v/as little or no protective snow cover. Later 
in February snow falls occurred which relieved to som.e extent, anxiety regard- 
ing the crops. Althoiigh many sections of the coimtry are very dry, crops are 
not expected to suffer, provided the spring rainfall is nornal. 



7H-71 



r rc.nco 

Fracticr.lly 0,11 coinmcnts from Fr:-noo rogc-i-diiig fdl-sovm crops hcvc 
te-)n ft^vorable. i'''ollo\;ing the mild v/eathor esiperioiiced during the first part 
of the season, colder v/oather set in d'oi^iiig tlie latter half of January, and 
severe fi'eesing was reported in Pebruary. The colder ^/eatiier iias generally 
been regarded as favorable to the Gro2.-3, a3 it checked the growth which might 
otherwise have become too advanced, and, ii- addition, halte.. the activities of 
rodents and insects. It has been reported that the oats crops suffered some 
sligji'" damage from freezing. I'ield work in general is further advanced than at 
this time a ye^r a{:o. 

The official estimate of the 1931 fall-sown \;hoat published around the 
first of F'jbruary, placed this year's area at 12,894,000 acres, as compared 
with the final estimate of 11,724,000 acres sovm in 1950, and 12,956,000 acres 
sown in 1929. Crop conditions \nre officially placed at 74 at the begirjning 
of February; this means thoy are som.ewhere bot\;een good (80) and fairly good 
(60). Better conditions are reported in th.e northern and eastern regions. 
The trade is generally of the opinion that ^ho above crop conditions, and 
e.- ecially the acro-^-ge estimate, are too conservative. 

I taly 

Italia,n v/intor v/hoat acreage so-r.: f jr harvest in 1922 differs but little 
from that of a year ago. The area is no;.- officii' lly reported at 12,051,000 
acros, as compared with th.e 11,990,000 acres sown a year t^go, and 11,950,000 
acres actually harvested in 1951. 

Conditions of aut^jimi-sovm crops continue satisfactory, although the 
weather ',/as rather dry until about the middle of February. Lh.to reports in- 
dicate abundant r.-ius in tiio South, and sufficient sno\7fall in the center 
and north sections of the country. 

Austria 

■/oather conditions in January and j..br-aary \;ore not particularly favor- 
able to autumn-so^/n crops. There was - decided lack of sno\/ cover and temper.:.- 
turos frequently re^vChod low levels. 'Some dasnagc has been reported in latc- 
sovn v/intcr v/hcat and should th^o present v/e^.ther conditions continue, further 
damage m.ay bo cxpect>:^d. Tlie official crop condition figures at the end of 
J'.nu-.-ry shov/ a dctorior^.tion in the case of all fall-sown crops wiion comxpared 
to a m^onth ago. The end of January figures are repcr tod to be 2.7 for wheat, 
2.5 for rye and 2.4 for b-;rley, as compared v/ith 2.4, 2.4 and 2.5 respectively 
at the end of December. Compared with the same dato a yo^.r ago, v;heat and rye 
are in poorer condition, but barloy is slightly better. Fastur^js and m.eadows 
arc also showing the effects of insuf f ic-\ . nt rainf^.ll. 

Oz echoslo v.^kia 

-'^ report as of the m.iddle of Fob:u..ry crprossos considerable anxiety 
regarding the autujmi sov/n crops, in consequence of the recent freezing weather 
which lollov/cd thu- liiiseas enable mild we .tlv.r previously experienced. At the 
same time sufficient snow covv.'r was lacking. The full extent of the dcjnage, 
however, has not boon estimated. The Cnochoslovakian Government recently 



"7H-71 



-28- 



publishod its find crop ostimctc for 19^1, and the figures cro given telow 
with compc.risons : 

Fin:-il 1950 PrGl.^_1931 x^incl 19^1 

1.000 bush. 1,000 bush. 1,000 bush. 

■/heat ........ 50,605 -3.0,317 41,EE6 

Rye 70,373 50,498 54,643 



Barley 55.932 45,444 ,49,374 

Oats 90,100 82,693 64,595 

The estimates show an upward revision for all of the principal grains. 
The final estimate for wheat is now only 806,000 bushels above the estimate 
carried by this office since last Sop tomb -r. 

Poland 

Severe freezing has also boon experienced in Poland during February, 
which is believed to have caviscd considerable damage, as the Polish crops had ^ 
c poor 3t-:rt last fall and wore, therefore, less able to withstand the rigors ox 
^ 3-v,-r- -/inter. The low temperatures and lack of snow -cover have given rise 
to considorablo anxiety in Polish agricultural circles. The Poles arc _ especially 
concerned regarding the outcome of the rye crop, as this is almost entirely 
winter sovm. The damage to the v/lioat cop c^ui be made up to some extent 
increased sowings of spring v/heat. 

The most recent official estimate of the Polish authorities placed the 
1931 wheat crop at 80,835,000 bushels. The Berlin office of the Bureau of 
^e-ricultural Economics believes this figure to be too hign, as it presumes a 
yield vorv close to aver..go. The yields of who.t in all of the countries _ 
surrounding Poland, and especially in those sections of Germany, Czecnoslova.^ia, 
end the Baltic countries which border Poland,- ^/ere much below average m iyoi. 
The estimate of tho Borlin office of the Bure-.u of Agriculture^ Bconomics is 
76,794,000 bushels. 

Belgium 

Crop conditions continue favorable. Reports indicate that the weather 
has been dry and mild and tho plants well dovolopod. This has periTiitted iield 
worlc to bo carried on in a satisfactory manner. Some extension of tno spring 
oat acre-gc is now ST^oken of. On the oth-r hand, the use of fertilizers nas 
bean lL.rgely restricted to Thomas Phosphate (slag) and the purcnase of selcctoa 
seeds continues very baclcvard. 

Spain and Portugal 

•7inter crops in Spain are report-J to be about normal, although the 

e-ster-'i section has suffered from dryness. prolonged drought is reported m 

certain sections of Portugal, and tho situation there appc^rs to be r..thcr 
serious . 



a/ September, 1951. 



Pais s i:in Vfno : '.t S oc t i e n 



1951 production 

a'o official estimates are available regarding the actual production of 
crops in Russia during 1931. However, oi^r previous statements regarding the 
unsatisfactory crops harvested in im'portant regions of the Union find confirma- 
tion in recent statements appearing in the Soviet press. Soviet authorities 
now adi'.iit that tlie drought v/as rather severe in the south-eastern section of 
the Union. In addition severe losses at harvest time are reported. It has 
recently been stated that although the spring v/heat sowings in 1931 amounted 
to 91 i:'er cent of the plan, the gross production of tiiat crop v/as fully 40 
per cent below the plan. In the case of all grains an average j^ield of 11.2 
bushels (50 po-unds ) per acre is reported as compared with the 15.4 bushels 
assmed by tlie plan. Such figures, however, are 2iot especially useful as they 
combine too many crops under one figure. It \ras stated that these low yields 
could not be accounted for by the poor crop alone as "we die. not even harvest 
all the crop yielded" due to a poor organization of t^.e harvesting campaign. 
Losses from the latter in 1931 were quite severe in the case of both collective 
and State farms. Many collectives were said to have lost 15 to 20 per cent 
of their crop and in some cases a figure of 40 per cent \;as mentioned. 

Probably tho most strilcing confirmation of the 1031 drought is the recent- 
ly published decree announcing tiie granting of a GovGrrunent seed and food loan 
of 965,000 short tors. The official comment accompanying the announcement of 
the loan is as follows: 

"In consequence of th.e fact that the eastern regions of the U.S.S.R. 
suffered from drought last year, as a result of which a part of tiie collective 
and Soviet ft^rms of these regions cannot provide tho necessary quantity of seeds 
for the spring sowing campaign, and that f urtiierraore, in a number of cases tiiere 
are food shortag-es, a seed and food loan, to bo rotiirnod in autunn 1932, in kind, 
v/ithout interest, to the eictent of 966,000 short tons is to be granted, of which 
705, OuO short tons are for the collectives and 231,000 short tons for the State 
grain, seed and livestock farms". 

The distribution of the loan according to regions and crops is as follows 
(for collectives only, distribution for State farms not 3ti..ted) : 



I 



V/heat 
1,000 bush. 



Gats 
1,000 bush. 



Barley 
1,000 bush. 



Rye 
1,000 bush. 



Lower Volga 

Middle Volga 

Ural , . . 

Kasakstan 

Basiiiceeria . . . . , . . . . 
"'estern Siberia .... 
Tartar Republic .... 



905 
2,347 
2,528 
2,076 

512 
2,347 
18 



564 
2,144 
2,596 



1,580 
1,016 



564 
846 



301 



1,096 

967 



957 



193 
967 



10,751 



9,310 



301 



4,190 



In addition, the collectives are gr<-.;vntod 1,929,000 bushels of corn and 
51,000 short tons of sunflo-wer seed. 



:'H-7i 



-■30- 



Of the 966,000 short tons of whoat, oats, Toarloy arcl r.yo 108,000 sjiort 
tons are granted for alimentary pm-jposos, the inder apj^ai'caitly being 
destined for seeding purposes. 

As can bo seen from the above table our previous reports regarding the 
drought in the Volga I'ogion, Ural region, I[asa?3tan and v/estern Siberia are 
fully confirmed by the large part of the loan to be distributed in these regions. 
It should bo noted that the loan is to bo granted only \/hon local resources for 
building up seed funds are also usod. This statement v;as apparently prompted 
by the fear that otherwise the collectives would malce no effort to secure the 
necessary seeds from thoir ovm resources, but would rely entirely on the C-ovorn- 
ment. In order to judge the size and imp)OrtancG of the seed loan it may bo 
stated that the plan calls for the collectives throughout the Union to accimulate 
6,323,000 short tons of grain for use this spring as seed. The loan, therefore, 
aiTiounts to more than 11 per cent of the total seed rc-quiroments of the collectives. 

The loan decree contains no mention of the individual peasants. Of the 
total loan of 966,000 short tons the collective farms receive 705,000 and the 
State farms the balance, or 251,000 short tons. In spite of the rapid progress 
of collectivization the individual peasant farms still constitute a significant 
part of the total, and the question arises as to the amouiit of grain still held 
by the peasants. It is only reasonable to suppose that tiic individual poas^^nts 
sui'fered from the 1931 drought to about the s^me extent as did the collective 
and State farms. There is reason to believe, therefore, that the peasants will 
experience a shortage of seed this spring and some sliift in crop acreage may 
occur, dependent upon the Irind of seed available. This is substantiated by 
the fact reported in the Soviet press of the replacement in many localities of 
cereals, including wheJ-t, by seed of other crops in the process of assembling 
the seed supply required for sowing. 

P roc urings 

The procuring campaign has com.e to a practical standstill during tho past 
several -weeics v/ith the prociirements only about 90.5 per cent of the plan. The 
bacicwardnoss of procurings is due chiefly to tho unfavorable results obtained in 
the U.craine and the UriJ, Xasalcstan and vestern Region, i.iost of tiio other regions 
report tlieir plans practically complete. It is now extremely doubtful that the 
plan will be fully carried out. The granting of the previously mentioned seed 
loan to the south-eastern r regions of the Unior points to tho shortage of grain in 
this section, so that tiie Ural and Jasakstan regions cannot bo expected to con- 
tribute any further to the procuring campaign. In ^-ddition, the preparation for 
the approaching spring sowing co:r,paign will -undoubtodly divert much of the energy 
and attention of authorities from tho procuring progrrx'. Despite the failure to 
com.plete the plan, tho a^ithorities indicate that the total quantity of grain pro- 
cured this season is obout 6 per cent larger then that of the previous season. 

Pr eparation of sprinrc sov/ing campaign 

The attention of the G-overniTijnt is now centered on tho approaching spring 
sowing campaign. The press is filled viith propaganda urging thorough and timely 
preparation so as to insure better yields and avoid the delay in 30\/ings which 
was so detrimental to yields last year, .-is of February 10, preparations wore 
considerably behind tiiosc of a year ago. Only a third of tlvo collectives iiad 
decided \7hat their sov/ing plans should cell for, whereas at the corresponding 



■'^-71 



-31- 



tirno c. yo^.r ego such pl::>,ns Iicd "boon drram up by 62 per cent of tiiG colloctivo 
farms. Of tho total rmriber of tr.-xtors in need of ropr'.irs only 37 per cont hc.d. 
been ropr.irod by February 10 this ycr.r, as coinparcd with 57 per cent tho corre- 
sponding figure for 1931. The assembling or building up of local seed supplies 
has given rise to frequent complaints on tho part of tho press. To February 10 
only 39 por cent of the total seed requirements have boon assembled compared to 
60 por cent assembled at that ti:no a ^e^r ago. In addition., very little atten- 
tion lias boon given to the acquisition of sufficient feed stuffs to properly 
care for the draft animals during the rush of the spring \/orK:. As fully 70 
per cent of the spring v/ork of the collective farms is expected to be accomplished 
by draft animals, tho lev; level of stocks of feeds is quite serious. 

The prcpc,ration for the southern regions of the Union which \/ould be the 
first to start sowing are somewhat further advanced, but even in the Ulcraino, 
Korth Caucasus and Crimea preparations are much behind these of a year ago. 
Development of tlio v/ork during the next fe\/ weeks \;ill liave a very importrjit 
bearing upon the final results of tho spring sc.;ing crrnj^aign. 

The previously reported plan for the spring so^/ing campaign for the Union 
sjr.ounts to 252,907,000 acres, as compared v;ith 240,885,000 acres for the spring 
of 1931. The distribution of tho planned seodings by principal regions is as 
follows : 





Prel. 1931 sov/ings 


1932 plan 




1,000 acres 


l,00u acres 






43,949 




..o,o,. 20,309 


21,821 






18,056 


Middle Volga , . . . 


.0.,,,. 18,058 


16,557 




. . . 0 . o , 15 , 226 


15,901 






13,590 


Central Fertile Region 


17,685 


18,335 


Western Siberia 


....... 18,298 


19,397 



The recently announced "contraction" a/ plan for spring grains, oilseeds 
and legumes calls for a total of 138,900,000 acres to be contracted this spring- 
on collective farm.s and the holdings of the poor and middle class peasants of 
which 126,421,000 acres are to be gr^hn crops. The corrosr ending figures for 
last year are 143 and 131 million acres respectively. 



a/ Contraction refers to the purchase by tlie Govorniaent of grain standing in 

the field. Tho peasants and collectives \.ho contract their grain \mdcrtako 
to deliver from l/4 to l/3 of tho crop to the Gov eminent during the first three 
months follo'.ving tho harvest "-jid in return for this tliey receive advance pay- 
ments and minor privelogos. l;o contracts are made v/ith the peasants in better 
circumstances, tho so-called "Xulak", ;;ho deliver their produce in accordance 
with officially established quotas. State farm.s are also not included. 



•:/H-7i 



-32- 



A recent x^ross report quotes estinietes froia tiic Iijto'rni.tiore.l Institute 
of Agriculture r,s of the so-./in^s of -./inter ;;Ii:c,t in Russi:":- for he.rvest this 
yocr- c.t 32,338,000 ceres, an incrj..sj of 9.7 per cent as compared v/ith the 
latest available ostihiato of the so-./irgs in the f r'.ll of 19' 0. In vie-^; of tho 
fact thiat a reduction of tlie tot;.! acreage so'..n to aintjr crops tooh place in 
the f-.ll of 1931, this suggests a considcrahle decline in the 1931 fall sov/ingrs 
of rye and barley. In spite of s".ch an incre isc in the \.lnter v/heat acrec^e, 
the area harvested this 3'ear may not be as great as in 1931, if reports of 
severe winter Icill arc borne out by lator dcv-.lopments . 

Cond ition of fall-^so\'n i grain s 

Weather conditions in January and ?obru--ry v/ore generally considered un- 
favorable. During the first and lr,st v/ceivs of J-,nu..--ry sno'i; covering v/as either 
lacking- or ver;,- scarce throughout the southorii regions of tlie Union. Tempera- 
tures -during the Ic-tter part of January and througiiout roost of February v/ero 
quite severe. Sno\; fall was reported around the middle of February and since 
then the entire country appears to hcve been covered, but all our private contacts 
indicate that the croT: dcnng-c during December and January v/as very severe. Some 
mention of damage has also occurred in the Hussian press, \/hich in itself in- 
dicates that conditions are not at all satisfactory. It appears that the Steppe 
regions of the Ukraine and parts of Lorth Caucasus ii.ve been most severely ..f- 
fected. Tho Berlin office of the Bureau of Agric ".iltural Lconomics believes the 
v/inter 1-cill of wheat this year be very severe. 



Ivlarke t G ondi ti ons 

Germ any 

A very firm tendency "./as apparent on tiie German ■'./he:.t marhets during the 
latter p^.rt of January and the first three v/e :]vs of February \:ith prices rising 
almost continuously. It is nOM generally believed that an arrangement some-./h..t 
similar to that of 1" st year -/ill soon be introduced '•.//iicli will provide for 
reduction in the duty rate, applicable to a certain contingent of foreign wheat. 
This contingent v/ould be applied to those mills using foreign wheat. The import 
duty is expected to bo reduced to pi. 50 or less per bushel. 

Domestic ■w'heat markets have l.ieen modor.'.tely active during recent \/ecks , 
and th^ firm tone of tlie market "./as due, partly at least, to a temporary improve- 
ment in flour sales -..hicli compelled mills to replenish their -./he./.t stocks. 

^ Rye prices continued to fluctu-'.te around the se:ne level as last mionth as 
a result of the Government's •erico regul^.ting sr.les. The rye price in Berlin 
ranged from 195 to 200 ra.-...rks tliroughout the past month ./nd only twice did it 
exceed 200 marks per ton. Tho Deutsche Getreide Handolsge30llsc}iaf t has been 
offering Russian rye, not only in Bjrlin, but also in other Germ.an markets at 
comparatively lo'// prices. The supply of German rye is becoming more scarce as 
it is preferred by mills because of its better quality. During the middle of 
February, Government agencies purchased about 2,955,000 bushels of Russian rye 
and an additional purchase of 5,543,000 bushels of x'aissian rye from the stocks 
in HcjTiburg and Rotterdcin \,'as reported on February 25. This latter j-urchaso 
practically e:daau3ted tiie Russian stocks of r^^o at Hnnburg. 



V/TI-71 



-33- 



Fricos for clomostic ;/aor.t .".nd rye in Gormo-n;>- r,ro given in the follo'-.'ing 



tT.blo, 



T;-ble 17. -Germany: Price per busael of domestic \.-hc..t and rye at 
s pe c if i e d inar'lt e t s , «j anuc ry 5 -I I:-rc Ii £ , 1932 



jato 



1932 



Jani 



Feb. 



i'.iar . 



15 
20 

27 
3 
10 
17 
24 
2 



Hai'iiburg 



Gents 

145 
146 
147 

156 
157 
160 

154 

154 



vrncat 



Bresl:.u 2J 



145 
148 
149 
151 
156 
158 
164 
155 
165 



a/ V/'hoat of average quality of 57.9 poniids ;^c] 
b/ "M[:.rkischor" v/hoat 58.3 - 59.0 poimds p^r 
c/ "LlarkiisGher" rye of 55.9 - 56.7 pomids per 



Berlin b/ 



Cents 

143 
145 
146 
150 
156 
157 
161 
159 
159 



Rye 



Berlin c/ 



Winchester bushol. 
inches ter bushel, 
inches ter bushel. 



Cent; 

113 
120 
119 
118 
119 
117 
120 
117 
117 



i'et imports of \.'hGat and \;heat flour into Ger^nany during January 1932 
amounted to 1,609,000 bushels compared with net imports of 1,062,000 bushels in 
DoceinbGr 1931 and 1,936,000 bushels in Jo-nuary of last year. The gross imports 
of wheat amounting to 2,6M,000 bushels, included 2,091,000 bushels \;hich entered 
at the reduced duty r.'.te of 15 cents per bushel, on the basis of cortif ica,tes 
sho^.■ing a previous export of Gorrflan \/heat. The nimiber of these certificates is 
rapidly decreasing as they h:.vG not been issued on any exports since December 51, 
1931. Exports of German v.heat during January this ye: r are reported as 1,051,000 
bushels, but most of this is believed to have been exported during the last 
fev; days of December, as there is ah/ays a certain overlapping in the str.tistics. 

The decrease of \;hG.'.--t stocks on German fan.is did not continue at the 
rapid pace prevailing during the last fc'w' months of 1951. .xcording to figures 
published by the German Agricultur..l Council as of Janu^.ry 15, 1932, the total 
farm stocks of -./heat decreased by 9,994,000 bushels from the middle of December 
to the middle of January. This may bo compared with a decrease of 14,608,000 
bushels during the previous month of this season and 15,852,000 bushels the 
decrease during the period from December 15, 1930, to January 15, 1931. The 
slowing do'./n in the rate of disappearance is due partly to the tenranation of 
GeriTian ^;heat exports as -..'ell as a possible decline in \;heat consumption. Stocks 
of •.vheat on farms January 15, -./ere about 4,300,000 bushels higher than at the 
sair.e date a year ago. 

A similar development has occurred in the disappearance of rye stocks 
according to the farm stock figures of January 15, 1952. From r>ovember 15 to 
December 15, 1931, yrjQ stocks decreased by 24,644,00o bushels but during the 
following month ended January 15, 1932, the decrease amounted to only 16,936,000 
bushels. It appears that the feeding of rye has decreased to some extent compared 



':m-7i 



-34- 



witli earlier months of the present sei.son, "but even this v/ill not eliminate the 
r/e shortage. There is co nsiderahle difference of opinion, '..s to the German 
r^'e deficit for the current season. Prior to the latest pvjrchase of 
3,543,000 "bushels the trade estiraates of reqv.irenents ainomted to 15,800,000 - 
15,700,000 hushels for tiie remainder of the season, '7lie Ger;.ian Ai,ricult-u-ral 
Coiuicil, on the other hand, maintains that tne present rye stocks v;ill suffice 
for the remainder of the sea.son. The Conj.cil arrives at this conclv.sion hy 
comparing the present supply situation v/ith former years of comparatively poor 
rye crops. Ohjections to this view point are tased principally on the f3.ct 
that in 1926-27 and 1927-28 imports of other feed grains, sv_ch as h-.-rley and 
maize, v/ere much greater than they have "been during the present crop year. 
At the same time, the nwabar of livestock, especially hogs nov/ on hand, are 
mvich greater than during the j'cars used in the ahove comparison. It is oiir 
opinion that further suhstantio.l imports of rye must t?„he place if pricjs are 
to he kept down to present levels. As in the past, the hulk of pujrchases of 
foreign rye will prohahly he made hy G-overniiient agencies as in this w:-.y the 
price is more easily regulated. . 

France 

French wheat markets h wo shown a very firm tendency'" Irjring tlio past 
month with domestic prices in particiilar rising, slowl}' hut steadily. In view 
of the rising prices and decreased domestic supplies, the Govormient has 
deemed it necessar"- to redf.ce the domestic lailling quota. The following changes 
have taken place recentl;,^ in the milling qv.ota: On Janu^^ry 31 from 97 per 
cent to 90 per cent, on Fohruo^r;' 10 from 90 per cent to 85 per cent, on 
Fehruary 13, from 85 per cent to 80 per cent -nd on Fehruary 26 from 80 per 
cent to 75 per cent. It is interesting to note in this connection that the 
decrease in the domestic milling qiiota last year did not take pl-xco tuitil 
early in April thus indicating that supplies may ho even shorter than they wore 
a year ago. 

Changes in the domestic milling q^lot.. last year v/cre as follows: 



Novemher 1930 to April 15, 1931 90 per cent 



April 


15, 1931 


85 


It 


tt 


11 


18 


80 


Tf 


;i 


tt 


27 


75 


tt 


tf 


Jxuie 


16 


70 


tt 


it 


tt 


30 


75 


It 


;t 


July 


3 


80 


I» 


It 


n 


9 


85 


(1 


tt 


tt 


24 . 


90 


tt 


tt 


Novem"b 


er 25,1931 


toJanu£.ry 31,1932, 97 


ft 


It 



As a resiilt of the recent changes in the milling quota, thero hr.s been 
an actLvo husiness in foreign descriptions. Last week important purchases of 
ITorth American whe.ats, Plates and Danuhcs i.iostly near position occurred. 

In the past, however, the millin^ quota has had little rel:.tion to the 
amoimt of wheat imported. For oxaiiiplc, i:i July 1931 the quota required the 
use of 85 per cent domestic wheat, from Aug'ust through Octoher 90 per cent and 
from ITovcm-hcr 1931 through January 1932, 97 per cent dciestic wheat. Assuming 
an OvVorage utilization of 25,700,000 hushels per month( an naturally all of 
this will not ho milled), the highest possihle imports to Jan-oar?-" 31, 1932 



v;ould "bo aliov.t 13,000,000 'bv.sliols. Actvxolly tlio not injorts cLvTin^' this 
7-inontli i^oriod v/oro .aoout 44,000,000 tus'iols. Of 00^x3.3 sor.v,: ci this li.is 
-DTohcJolj 1)0011 storod Td^'- mills for use wlio.u tlu r.villin:,, qv.ota, is roducod, tut 
it G,p;;'OC.rs that oitlior thcro arc various ¥/a; s of r.voidin.;^ tlu ro:;,ul..\tions or 
olsc tho Govoriiraont lias po.'/or to sot asido tlio ro^ul.-ti Jiis v/honovor it soos fit, 

It,-ly 



Business on the Italian v/heat marlzets dpjrini, tho past sevorj.l weeks 
v/as qxii e active and prices continued to rise. T:ie strong incre'^se in 
dor.estic v/heat prices point tov/ard a scarcity?- of domestic supplies. Ital;;'-''s 
millinc; quota for foroi;<^n "bread \;'heat has "been increased, effective March 21, 
to 50 per cent of tlie total in ITorth and Central Ital-- enclusive of Latiuin 
and 70 per cent in otlier parts of tho country, frora 30 pur cent ■'•hich has been 
effective since the first of 7ehrv. .r.y. The quota for foreign durvja \7heci.t 
renains imch nged at 80 "er cent. 

As a res^.-.lt of the Fobr.v.rp reduction 01 tho millin;P quota, consideyahle 
"business v;as done in foreign v/hoats -jith njar I'latos and Australians rauch 
in deuand. Hussiau and ii'ortli Anorican v/heat v/ero r.lso iii demand at rising 
pricos . 

Holland and BelGi-^ij'^ 

Tho Ihitcli v/heat niarlcots were quite active durin_ [J'3"bruary and 
considorn-hle "business v/as carried on in all descriptions. Pricos in (jOnorod 
snov/ed an upv/ard tendency tnou{;-jj:. tlii rise v/o-s ver^-- slov/. - c onsider .."ble 
"business v/as done in near Plates "but Russians, lianitobas oiid Axistrali uis 
also v/ere sold, .■s.s a result 01 the incruo-sod activity-, stocks of v/ho:.t in 
HottordaxU shov/od a su"bstantial reduction and are nov lov/or th.in -t tlio saiic 
tine a year ago. 

Belgian v/hoat m:'.rl:ets contijiuod modoratol^r active. ...ill "bxu'ing has 
bcjn qv.ito rsgvilar and tr-.din:^ in j^ll descriptions h.is bo^n done at relotiv.ly 
good 'iricjs. 

C z echo si o valci a o.J 

Tlic •.vha'^.t mar :ets in C 2 echo Slovakia v;ero inactiv. durin . ':he first h If 
of Jo"bru.Lry. Aarkjt suppli ;S -.vero more than s-officijnt to nojt roquironnits, 

■i •■•-s a rosult tho tone of tno market v;;t.s •.7oak. Since t-io middle of ?ohru-,ry, 
krvovor, the market v/as ■:iorc o.ctivo ojid prices of "both v;ho:.t -xnd rye have sliov/n 

rising tondcnc;;. 

Tho im^...ort contingent for J.um .ry v/as rvot used up, imports in that 
nonth amorjiting to only 1,34-8,0.0 "bushels as co pared v/ith 2,524,000 bushels 
imported during Jocembor. As ;a.t no co::tiu:;ont h .s b:_. a-i fi..-.od for Fobrvv..ry, 
and it is possible th. .t uh5 c.vtin ent ..:ay bo p..3sod alto_,ether for this month. 
-•'■A .^o'^>:'^"tl;i Jocon to fi:: tho imports from nov; on according to 

a/ After the report vas typed v;o received -./ord th, ,t t":. import contingent 
of v.'hoat for February v/as 919,000 busliels to bo used on tho basis of 1 ton 
domostic to each I-I/4 tons foreign. 



^^1-71 



-3o- 



requiromonts , ^.lt:ioi\';,Li just v/lii.t is l:lc•.•^lit "b^^ this st'.tjraont is not 
yot clear. It s^-ci.ts TO'iSOiicJbl ^ to supposo, Iior/ovjr, tli-,t tL-.";ro v/ill "be sono 
claangG in th.u Czoclioslovr.kiai-' ir.iport rcqiiiruraunto. 

.'iustria 

Business on the Aiistrian v/hcat m ,rl:ots during ..lOst of iOhru -r;^ continued 
limited, "b^it in the l:;,st fov; days sonic improvement has hoen noted. Better 
■bi;;;'ing on the p;^rt of the mills is reported as a result of the improvement 
in tho flour sales. 

On Fel)ruar:y 12 the Government increased the import 6.\vty on \7ho"-.t Toy 
1 gold crov/n to 11 gold crovnas and :,t tho same time reduced the im.port duty 
on rye "by 2 gold crov;ns, in order to hrins r;'c quot:-tions hclov; those for whe-.at. 
To date, hov/cver, the prices h-,ve not reacted in the manner desired "by the 
Governiiicnt . Rye is cxc^edingl- scarce, and as imports of r2^c are severely 
hampered "by exchange regailations, prices ma^ "be eiqpected to continue at present 
levels. 

Poland 

The weak tone apparent on the Polish grain markets towr.rd the end of 
January and early in Pe"bruar\ was attri'buted largely to the cessation of 
Xmrchases for military requirements, as well as a decrease in the sr.pporting 
purchases of Government agencies, .'^s a result of the reduced price level, 
inqv.iry improved somewhat and the tone is now firmer. 

It has "been pointed out that domestic supplies are insufficient f-or 
the season's requirements. This fact, together with the present prohihition 
on foreign grain imports is o;;pected to result in a price rise later on. 



^-71 



-•37 



Table 18.-'\7heot including flour: Ilovoment from principal exporting 

countries, 1928-^9 and ISol-'JZ 



Country 



United States 
Canada 

Argentina .... 
Aus tralia .... 
Hungary ...... 

Yugoslavia . . . 
Rumania ...... 

Bulgaria ..... 

British India (L - 
Total 



rtli iunerica a/ . . . 
Canada, 4 markets b/ 

United States 

' Argentina .......... 

strafia ... ....... 

^.ussia c/ 

Danube d- Bulgaria c/ 
British India ...... 

Total e/ 

Total European 

shipments a/ ..... 
" : tal ex-2urcpear. 
3 hiijm ents a/ 



jcrts as given by official sources 



1. V' Oc. J- 

U2b-?9 ;19^9 -on 

l,OuC : 1,000 
bushels ; bus he Is 

153, 6C7 : 155, 242 
422,732:184,213 
227,059 :lbl,255 
107,705: 61,892 
25,658: 31,415 
7,919: 23,593 
l,:-55: 2,550 
7 60: 96 
5,716 : 6,796 
9 60, 9 69': 624, 074 

Shipra-j nts 

Total 



; Ju ly 1 to dat e s ho'.vn 



1930-31 :1929-:50 :19 30-51 



1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000 
bushuls :bu3hels :bi"!shel3 



131,536 : 10 6 
267,265:117 
120,510: 85 
143,295: 18,393 
18,425: 11,175 
,075 
438 
70 
, 735 



4,930: 16 
14,792: 

5,041: 
10,197 ; 1 



,268: 93,635 
,477 : 17 8, 9 58 
,218: 18,401 
27,856 
6,222 
5,072 
10,488 
1,503 
6,019 



716,091:356,847 :; 



1931-32: 



Datt 



1,000 : 
bushels ; 

9 0,451: Jan. 31 

131,592: Jan. 31 

30,092 :1.cv. 30 

, 45,039 :i->ov. 30 

' 10,411: Dec. 31 

10,082 :i:ov. 30 

30,171:1.0V. 30 

5,869 :i:ov. 30 

l,241:Sept. 30 



354,946 : 



1929-30 : 1930-31 
(Rev. ) :(Prel. ) 



1,000 : 1,000 
bushels : bushel; 



317,248: 557,768 : 
193,580 :270,168 
1 49,7 53 : 152, 27 6 



164,964:118,712 
54,57 5:144,512 
5,672: 92,520 
18,584: 15,128 

d /l,936: 5.80 8 



i 7 2, 5 00 ; 744, 448 



47A,096 :614,488 
138,668 .'l72,600 



as .given by_ 

'.Veeirs 



currunt trad.e sources 



Fob. 20 'Fob 



1,000 
bushels 



5,672 



1,077 
2,064 



4,544 
400 
0 

0 



14,05 6 



9,968 

4,776 



27 



1,000 
bushels 



1,261 

e':'2 



; 4,455 



5,174 
4,901 
112 

O rr «-j 

0 



14,856 



iuar 



1,000 
bushels 



1 , ^159 
1,476 



6 , 3;;5 
4,876 

136 
166 

0 



15,970 



July 1 to i.Iar. 5 



1930-31 '1931-32 



1,000 : 1,000 
bushels :bushel3 



262. 064:220,6 20 
196,316:141,001 
98,225: 99,33 9 



54,460: 76,619 

77,520: 99,659 

60,384: 70,512 

11,432: 34,960 

5 .728: 616 



491,588:503,186 
397,952:372,156 
99,576 il28,472 



a/ Broomhall's Gorn Trade Ne-.vs. b/ I'ort '"illiam, Port Arthur, Vancouver and 
Prince Rupert. c/ Blacl-c Sea shipments only. d/ ilet imports 1929-50 \.-Dre 
1,847,895 bushels; for 1930-31 v;ere 420,099 bushels. e/ Total of trade 
figures includes iTorth ijnorica as ropcrted by Eroo'.niiall ' s « 



I 



TablQ 19.- United State: 

■by 



-39- 

!; nzports of v/liaat and v;h.ej 
v/Goks, 1930-31 nnd 1931-32 



incliidin^ flour, 



Date 




'.7he:.,t 


; '.7iie:it flour 


.''/i'ioat including flour 




:' ■ 1930-^]' 


1931-32 ■ 


' lVjO-31 


. 1931-32 


. 1930-31 


1931-32 




: 1,000 


: 1,000 


; 1,000 


. 1,000 


, 1, 000 


, 1,000 


- 


: "bushels 


: 1)11 she Is 
'. 


: liarrels 


• Toarrels 


. "bu.shcls 


"'oushels 


Jan - June 


: 

: 29,492 


: 22,473 


: 5,710 


4,713 


. 56,329 


44, 648 


July 4- Aug. 1 


• 12,937 


• 13,502 


845 


731 


. 18,009 


16,938 


Auj.S-Au-. 29 


: 14,057 


• 6,274 


: 887 


\ 551 


18,226 


3,863 


S3i;t.6-0ct. 3 


12,616 


; 8,997 


1,383 


547 


19,116 


11,559 


0ct.l0-0ct.31 


4,924 


; .10,827 


896 


529 


9, 155 


13,313 


l^ov.7-ITov. 28 


J 5 o 


: 8,952 


805 


514 


6,315 


. 11,369 


Doc. 5~ Jan. 2 


2, 654 


: 7,212 


760 


787 


6,227 


10,911 


'7c ok ended 














Jan. 9 . , . 


219 


: 880 


95 


1 02 


G d5 


1,359 


16 ... • 


, 188 


; 495 


X -J (J 




7'^0 


1, 468 


23 .... : 


' 23 


: 2,081 . 










30 . , . 


5 i2 


: ' 584 


154 ■ 


158 


1,256 ' 


1,327 


Fe^o. 6 . . . . 


63 


1, 793 , 


102 


119 


542 


2,352 


13 ... . 


4 


: 1,342 : 




165 


577 


2,118 


20 ... : 


19 


: 917 ■ 


104 


o/l A 


508 


2,084 


27 ... I 


1 


; 340 


179 - 


111 


842 


862 



oo:'.r:iled from v/eekly report of Dexjartmont of Oormnerc^ 



Table 20.- \Taeat including flour: Shiprnonts froia principal eizporting 





regions, specified 


dates. 


193 >il a; 


.d 1931 


-32 




Date • 


Argentine'. : 


Austr^o 


lia 


: Dc:.nv 


.be : 


I'i"orth .Ui 


erica 


1930-31: 


1931-32: 


T930-iri'; 


19 o 1-32 


: 19 30-31 :_1 : 


31-32. 


1930-31; 


1931-32 




1, OOO' 


1,000 ; 


1,000 : 


1,000 


1 1,'.) id ' ":'l. 


boo 


iVooo' "7 


i,':.oo" 




iDUshels: 


"bush-ols ; 


bushel s : "bushel s 


:busj.i3ls:l3v 


.sh e 1 s : bushel s J bu she 1 s 


Jan. - June : 


62,012; 


94,336: 


38,500:105,648 


: 3,396: 


4,408: 


146,712: 


155,832 


JuljA 4- Iiv^. 1 : 


4,8 92: 


9,360: 


6,320: 


15,780 


403: 


744; 


40,616: 


27,048 


I\xi(£. 8 ~;,ai3.29 : 


3, 723: 


5,372: 


4,812: 


7,596 


. 1,368: 


504i 


40,523: 


23,352 


Sept. 5 -Oct. 3 : 


3,756: 


6,940: 


5,460; 


8,216 


4,312: 


9,576: 


45, 552 J 


30,960 


Oct.lO-Oct. 31 : 


4, 124; 


5,572: 


5,492: 


6,844 


• 1 , 28 3 ; 


9,200: 


28,680-. 


29,040 


ITov. 7-nov. 23 : 


2,912: 


5,864: 


5,460: 


5,900 


1, 792: 


6,224; 


J S 2 • 


34,736 


Dec. 5-Jan. 2 ; 


4,954: 


7,452: 


10,320: 


3,856 


X ^ 1^.' 5 ii-f • 


5,712; 


23, 163: 


28, 152 


".'eok ended : 


















Jan. 9 .... : 


968: 


1,500; 


3,716; 


3,464 


72: 


312: 


5,472: 


5,443 


16 . . . . : 




2,748: 


4,856. 


6,512 


64- 


304; 


5,544; 


5,080 


23 . . ; 


2,368. 


3,85;..: 


3, 732; 


7,672 


15: 


1,2/2; 


6,230: 


5,456 


30 .... J 


3,524: 


4, 172; 


5,415: 


4, 000 


0; 


448: 


6,992; 


4, 776 


FSo. 6 .... . 


3,604. 


.'. '"'I ;"> • 


4,516: 


4, 656 


98: 


176: 


4,496; 


5, 768 


13 .... ; 


4,392: 


4,020; 


4,000: 


5 , 72i: 


160: 


283: 


6,504: 


5,240 


20 . . . : 


4,292; 


4,232; 


4,608: 


4,544" 


tj : 


0: 


5,040: 


5,672 


27 . . . . : 


4,236: 


5,174: 


4,788: 


4,901: 


135: 


232: 


4, 720: 


4,437 


Compiled fron oi 


'ficial and trade 


3 ourc e 0 


• 











-3S- 



Table SL-Vilieat including flour: IcOt imports into "Clurcpeaii countries 
1929-30, 19o0-31 and July 1 to latest d^te, 1931-52 



Country 



1929-jO 



1930-31 











• July 


~l""to 


.1930-31 


19 31— 52 




:IIilliun 


,Iii Hi on 


:IIillion 






illillion 


Hill ion 




: "bus ho Is 


; bushels 


:bushels 






[bushels 


.bushels 


United Kingdom 


: 202 


. 221 


:200-210 


Jan. 


31 


: 142 


: 155 




: 45 


: 84 


- 54-70 


', 1; ov . 


30 


: 33 


! 6 


^ '3 1 X "UJTi tAVftO ooo«»»o««*oc •• 


: 43 


45 


. 42-45 


Doc i 


31 


24 


26 


Franco , . . , . « . , . . 


: 20 


45 


: 55-62 


Jec. 


31 


14 


40 


i\'otIiGr lands c . . , 


30 


35 


: 51-33 


• Dec . 


31 


: 19 


16 


G-eiTnaiiy 


61 


50 


. 18-29 


Dec . 


31 


: 17 


6 


Greece 




24 


. 16-20 


Dec . 


51 


11 


12 


Irish Free State 


18 • 


19 




Doc . 


31 


10 


11 


3"./itzerland . , 


17 • 


13 


17-18 


Jan, 


31 


12 


14 


.-xustria ................... 


18 ' 


15 • 


16-17 


Dec . 


31 


7 


9 


Chechoslovakia 


12 ; 


15 : 


22-24 


Dec . 


31 


11 


12 


Donmai'I^ ..................o 


0 


11 • 


10-12 


J an • 


31 


6 


12 


iTor.;ay 


7 : 


8 • 


7-8 


Dec < 


31 


5 


5 


Finland 


6 ; 


5 


5-5 


Dec. 


31 


3 


3 


Sweden • 


7 ; 


5 : 


5-7 • 




51 


4 


4 


Poland 




b/ -4 ! 




Jan. 


51 




b/ -1 


Port~a{;;al 


6 ! 


3 : 


2-4 . 


l.ov. 


30 : 


1 


1 




2 : 


2 : 


1-2 


iiOV. 


30 


1 ' 


s/ 




1 ; 


1 : 


1-2 


1; 0"/ . 


50 


1 : 


a/ 


Spain : 


5 ; 


a/b/ : 


3-5 


1". OV . 


50 : 


^ . 


a/ 




528 : 


582 : 






319 ; 


331 



Prel. 

estimate: 



Net imports reported 



ComT)iled from official sources, 
a/ Less than 500,000 busliels. 
by I'.ct export. 



711-71 



Ta"bl9 23.- United Stat^js: Iraports and exports of ^vliec'-t incliidin;3; 



flour, July 1,1S30 to 


i'e'h rv3.r3^ 


28,1931 and July 1,1931 to 




Peloru-ar;;, 


;?;, 1952 




— 





July 1, 1930 


July 1, 1931 


Itera 


- 


to 


to 






Fe'b. 28, 1931 


Feb. 29, 1932 




: 


1, 000' tusliels : 


1,000 iDushels 




m 

9 








I 


56, 757 : 


67,793 


^lo^^r in terms of wlieat 




39,548 


. 30,006 


Total 


I 


""'V6",305" 


97,809 


liaPOl^rS, (July - Jan. ) 








'..^.leat 


• 


12,554 


9,073 


Flour in terras of wneat- 


v. - 


D 


i 


lOtai 




12,659' ■ " : • ■ - 


, 9',0T4 




• 






Vrneat 


• 
• 


44, 103 


58,720 


Flour in terras of wlieat 




39,543 


30,005 


, Total 


• 

• 
• 


83 , 645 


; 88,725 



Cornpile'd from official sources. 



Talkie 25.- 'I^ieat including flour: .d]:rports from principal e^qiorting 
. covjitries, DecemlDer 1930 and 1931, January, Fel3ruar;A 1931 and 1932 



Country 


Dec . 




Jan , 


■ Feb'. 


__"T950'_^ 






A^. 


. 1932 




1,000 


; 1,000 ; 


1,000 : 1,000 


. 1,000 


1, 000 




bushels 


: bushels; 


bur:;hels : bushels 


bushel s 


> bushels 


'United States ... 


6,903 


: 12,100 : 


5,731: 8,137 


3,717 


: 7,396 


Canada = . . • • . . 


24,939 


: 24,33 7 : 


11,374: 10,.9o5 


12,163 


6,633 


Ar,3e;. i.tina 


4,377 


: a/7,452 ; 


10, 948: a/12,276 


. 17,614 


17,553 


British India • • . 


527 


:a/ 0 : 


461: a/ 0 


281 


0 


Alls trail a. ..... 


9,054 


.a/8,856 : 


17,858:^21,548 


17, 734 


I 19,829 


Russia a/ .... . 


11,563 


■ 4,560 : 


1,536: 2,656 


5,800 


1,080 


Damfoe and Bulg, 


1,552 


; 5,712 : 


152: 2,336 


384 


696 


Total .... 


59,423 


: 62,867 : 


48,053: 58,018 


57, 693 


53,272 



Coriipiled from official and trade sourc3s. 
a_/ Preliminary. 



"/I-I-71 



1 

4 
5 

r 

o 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 



ownjiiar:/ , . . , ... 

Crop Conditions ..=... , . , , 

"lieat Prospects in tl.e I'nited Str.-tos = . , , n, . 
Sv.rplusGs for I'lxport -and Cc,rr;--over ...... . 

Carr' -over oi" '."j/ss/g in tl^e Unite! Status July 1, 1.-33 
Sliaivjliai ?iour iiar"-;ot . . ........... 

Danxil^e Lasin Tneat Situation l^l.lrinG; Febraar, , , . . . 
'.■inter 'Tneat Seedin^s Tor tlie 1332 crop . , , , , . , 

Developiiients in C-overment Aid = , o . 

The Continental Airopo.an '.'/lioat llarket Situation I^arirv 
Fe"bruar^- . , 



]. - 3 
5-6 
0 - 11 
12 

12 - 13 
14 
15 

21 

o o 



12 - Jiussiw^n i/;lijat Section . 

13 - I-ar.cet Conditions . . . 



3 (-^ 
36 



10 
11 
12 

13 
14 
15 



17 
13 
19 

;20 

21 

op 



tar::ot s 
S'3 jcii" 



tilG 



0.1 



t of corTi^aralDlo •'vrrados ...:t 



"Tnoat: V/orld supply, price and di sappear.ance 
'.Iieat; Price per loiisliel at specified marLcets 
Tieat: 'Veijhted avcr-._,e cash price at stated 
■'.neat: hvera;;^e price per oxishel of parcels oi 

descriptions, c.i.f. .t Liverpool , , 

V/lijat: ClosLnj prices of Irv futures ...... 

'.Xf.cat' 'Tinter acrea;'v;e in specified coxuitries . . . , 
"'.neat: Ilarcli 1 surplv.s for export and carry-over in 

4 principal erportin.:^' coinitries . 
■J.ieat: Farm stocks and coni'iorcial visible supply as 

n;.rcli 1, 1924 - 1932 . . o . , 

Japan: Imports and onports of v/heat and v/hjat flour 
.".■lieat orA flovn-: United States c:q)orts to China . , 
China: Imports of 
Price per hiishel for "."h>. 

Bxidapest and ITovi-S_,.d 
Price per "biishcl of do:.i^stic .'heat 

l/hoat and v/heat flo-.r s'dp:v,cnts to the Continent .... 
V.lieat and -./heat flo .r shipi.ionts to Huropo 
Continental .l.xropean stochs of "/"neat, m.'.ddle of Janu.'.ry 

and Fchruary 1931 Mid 1932 

G-ermanj'': Price per hr.shcl of domestic -./heat .aid rye .t 

specified markets, January. .6-I:Iarch 2, 1032 

'.'.'iiGat inclii.dinc flour: -■.ovcment from principal o:cportin; 

countries, 1928-29 and 1931-32 . . 
United States: jX -orts of v.'heat and 

hy -./eoks, 1030-31 n.nd 1031-32 . . ........... 

Tno,:.i.t inc ludi n.;j; flo^ar: Shipinonts from principal crcportinc; 

re^i'ions, specified d..tes, 1930-31 and 1931-32 ...... 

"Tneat includini, flour: Hot i..iports into Juropoaii coiUitrics, 

1929-30, 1930-31 .and July 1 to latest d .to, 1931-32 . . . 
U.iitod States: Imports and er-cports of -./he .t includin . 

flour, July 1, 1030 to Fobn'ury 20, 1931 a.nd Jul,-- 1,1031 

to February 29,1932 ... • . ... 

"'/"heat including flour; Z:c orts fro/, principal ezportin;:^ 

countries, December 1930 .and 1931, J j^-'ms-.ti' , Febra:.ry 

1931 and 1932 



. - 1 sp e c i f i ed in .r k e t s 



ho'.t incl.-.din_^ i'lour. 



4 
7 
7 

8 
9 
11 

13 

14 
16 
17 
18 

19 
24 
25 
25 

26 

33 



38 
38 



40 



40 




UinT2D ST.".T~S Di;PiJlTi:3KT OF AGHICUL11.113 
BiireavL of Agricultural Economics 
V/asiiingt on 




L I B '1 *\ R 



Apri 



1 



V/OHLD ;VIEAT PROSPECTS 



1' ';/ Ajjriou 



Summary 



Evidence of poor condition of the winter wheat crop in the United States 
is of ovitstanding importance in the wheat situation. Serious damage to winter 
wheat has teen reported in man}' parts of the United States, particiilarl^/- in the 
winter wheat regions of the ^reat Plains where drought and soil hlo\in.ng have 
heen serious. The condition of the crop as of April 1 is reported to "be 75.3 
per cent of normal compared v/ith a 10-year average of 80,9 per cent. Tliis on 
the redu.ced acreage indicates a crop of only 453 million compared v;ith last 
year's winter wheat production of 787 million. 

A winter wheat crop of 458 million bushels together with an average 
prod'.iction of spring wheat would result in a total crop for the United St:;tcs 
of only about 700 million bushels. Tnis is less than indic-ted domestic 
utilization of the past two ~ oars of about 730 million bushels. Because of the 
short corn crop of 1930 and low v/hoat prices, feeding has been unusually heavy 
in the past two years. At present levels of wheat prices and of acreage, total 
utilization in the United States would v.sually amount to about 650 million 
bushels yearly. 

Early indications, ho-./ever, su;-:,gest that spring wheat yields in some 
regions, at least, may be below average, therefore the average spring wheat 
yields used in the above calculations are not to bo counted on. Spring wheat 
yields show a close relationsliip to fall precipitation and weather conditions 
from April to Jul^'. Last fall there was continued dry weather throughout some 
of th^ spring v/heat area and this points to low yields ujiless there is generous 
rainfall in these areas d\rring the spring months. Since farmers have expressed 



intontions to seed a sprin- r/laoat area lars^r than uas harvested last "O'.r, 
except in the event of very adverse v/oather conditions in the next f ev/ months, 
the spring '.vhcat crop is likely to he larger than the 105 nillion hiishcls 
harvested in 1931. 

Altogether, indications are that the total supply of v/heat in the United 
States dxiring the 1932-33 crop year ■Jill he much smaller than supplies have heen 
drxxinz the current season. The carry-over may he somewhat larger, perhaps hy 
20 to 50 million hushels. L reduction of the v/heat crop froa the 892 million 
hushels -reduced in 1931 to aro^ird 700 million would far more than couiter- 
halance the increase in carry-over and res-alt in total supplies of ahout 150 
million hushels less than have heen available in the 1931-32 season. 

Presumahly there mil he a large amount of v;heat in the United States 
v/hich can he exported during the remainder of this and next season. Neverthe- 
less -oresent indications as to the winter -jheat crop appear to give assur.mce 
that tliare will he no forced selling of v^isat in the export market due to lack 
of storage space, and foreign huyers -.7111 not he assured of a considerable 
Yolxme of exports from the United States regardless of prices. 

Rirthermore, with the first quarter of 1932 passed ai'.d the heaviest of 
the new crop movement from the Soi-.thern Hemisphere out of the way, importing 
coimtries appear to be more interested in obtaining su, 'olios fro,: United 
States and Canada to help fill out their import requirements. There are, of 
course, plentiful supplies in the United States and Canada from which any 
import requirements which are not filled hy Southern Hemisphere shipments 
during the next three months can he met. The vital question is, wh:-t prices 
must he paid in order to obtain the required si^gplies from l.orth America. 

^orld wheat shipments, after having risen to a high level in January 
under the influence of rapidly mo^onting exports fro.u Argentina and Austr:Aia, 



WH-72 

declined to a sli^'htly lower level during- February as a result xjrimarily of 
the decline in the v/hcat movement from Austr .lia. There follov;ed another 
rise in the level of shipinonts as Argentine shipments rose to the hi .ghost level 
of the season, h\it world shipuients again declined dm'ing the latter part of 
March, as the peak of the movement from Ar^'entina stihsided. 

There is some ovidonce that Liverpool prices, and to a lesser extent 
United States prices, also have reacted to the flxictuating level of world 
shipments. As shipments increased during January, prices at Liverpool 
weakened somewhat, hut then strengthened again shortly after the decline in 
shipments to lov/er levels* in Fehruary. The strengthening of prices was 
followed, however, by a later decline which set in at about the time v/orld 
shipments reached their Llarch pear: of nearly 18 million bushels during one week 
of that month. Early in April prices again moved up\mrd following the decline 
of world shipments to 14 million bushels for the last v/eek of L'arch, 

United States wheat prices continue to be well above a normal export 
basis. Tlie relationship betv/een United States and world prices appears to be 
dependent largely upon the prospect for supplies of wheat in the United States 
which will be available to the regular grain trade, that is, prospects for 
total supplies minus stocks retained by the Grain Stabilization Corporation. 

Supplies of old crop wheat available in the principal exporting countries 
arc estimated to be a little smaller th,an they were a year ago. New crop 
prospects in the Northern Hemisphere are on the whole somewhat poorer than 
last .'/ear, the acreage in the United States having been materially reduced and 
its condition being poor, v/hile in v/cstern Europe crop prospects are generally 
favorable, and in eastern Europe generally unfavorable new crop conditions 
have been reported. 



\7Iieat Acreaiije , and Croj) Conditions 

The estimates of the winter wheat aGi'ea:ie in the 17 coimtries for'v/hich 
reports are availahle total 164,0 raillion acres against 1G3»8 million acres 
in t.ie same comitries last ;;ear. The decrease in the United States is more 
than offset "by increases in India and Russia wliere the largest increases have 
ta.lcen place. In India the increase is 2,7 million acres, while in Russia the 
increase is 3.23 million acres. In Airopean countries otlicr than Russia the 
acreage remains ahout the sosiie as last ^'oar, increases in some countries Ijeing 
offset "by decreases in others. 

The condition of the winter wheat crop in the United States on April 1 
was reported at 75.8 per cent of normal compared with 88* 8 .per cent on April 1 
1931 and indicated a crop of ahout 458,000,000 "bushels compared with 
787,000,000 bushels harvested in 1931. The actual outttirn of the crop this 
year may vary considora"bly from this carlj'' estimate depen'.lin;^' upon whether 
the effects of future v/cathor up to harvest time prove to he more or less 
favorable than the avoraso for past years. The April 1 condition indicated 
an ahandoruncnt of nearly 14 per cent compared with the 10-yoar average of 
12 per cent. 

Conditions in the Prairie Provinces of Canada, particularly in regard 
to the supply of moisture available, are "better than at the beginning of 
either of tlie past two seasons although it continues to be ver^^ dry in some 
parts. On May 11 the Dominion Bureau of Statistics will issue a report on 
intentions to plant spring whes.t ■vhich accounts for about 96 per cent of the 
total wheat acreage. 

Official reports are available thus far for only 4 Ziuropean covmtries, 
Germany, Poland, Austria and Sv/itzerland each of v;hich report conditions 
belov; last year and i-Aso below average. Unfavorable reports have also been 
received from the Danubian co\mtries. Conditions in the southern and -..'estern 
Stiropean countries, however, are more favorable. 

In 'France the condition of the v/inter crop is reported as favorable in 
.most districts. Tlie recent coldr-r v/eather which has been accompanied by 
occ /.sional rains and snov; m'cij delay spring seeding but the spring acreage 
represents only a small part of the total wheat area. Prospects for the nev; 
crop in Italj^ are also reported as favorable but backward. About average 
winter kill v/as reported in the Balkan countries and tne crop appears in 
favorable condition but the seeding of the spring crop is somev/hat delayed. 

Conditions in the Danube, liowever, are less favorable. One estimate 
places the v.'inter killing in Rumania as high as 12 per cent on an acreage 
somewhat below last year. Tne outlook for the new crop in K\ms3.rj is reported 
as xmfavorable. 

The area seeded to -.-/inter v/heat in Russia was reported at 32,337,000 
acres, an increase of about 3,310,000 acres as compared with last year. 
Severe lov/ temperatures in Januar,;, when a large part of the grain area was 
without sno-.7 cover, are thought to have caused large winter kill. The spring 
sov/ing plan provided for an increase in the v.'heat acreage but difficulties 
are being ex/Derienced and in some regions there is a tendency to substitute 
other grains for wheat. 



■■/II- 7 2 



-5- 



Reporbs fro.a ITortli Arrica indicate an ir.i]...rov3;ncnt in crop conditions. 
Algjria and Tunis Iiave increased the acreage but estimates are njt available 
for riorocco or Sgypt. 

A la,T{^e acreage v/as sov/n in India but corditions havo been less favorable 
tlian last year. Tlie first estimate of the pr odiiction i;i the P^uijab v/as 
125,000,000 bushels, a decrease of 10,000,000 bushels from the corresponding 
estimate for 1931. '-^Vade reports are no-;/ anticipating, a total Indian crop 
about equal to last year v/hen 347,000,000 bushels -.vere harvested. The first 
official estimate of the total prodxiction v/ill be issued the latter part of the 
present month. 

In the Southern Hemisphere preparations are no;/ soing forv/ard for the 
seeding of the 1932-33 crop. V/oathor conditions in both Australia and Argentina 
favor an acreage larger than last year v;hen substantial reliictions occurred in 
bot'i countries. 

llevj Crop_Pro_spects i_n the United 3_tates 

IHvidcnco of poor condition of •.vinter v/h.3:.t in the G-roat Plains area 
has been of outstanding importance in the '.vheat sitmtion. The condition of 
the crop for the entire United States as of April 1 is reported to be 75.8 
per cent of normal compared ■;;ith a 10-yoar average of 80.9 per cent. Tlie 
official estimate of the crop, indicated by April 1 conditions, is 458 million 
bxishcls. This v/ould be an average yield on the area planted of approxima,tely 
11.8 bushels per acre. Although April 1 conditions cannot be considered an 
exact indicator of the final outturn of the crop, it is significs.nt that in 
the past twenty-two years there has been no instance v/hen an April 1 condition 
of less than 80 per cent has not been followed by an avera-ge yield of less than 
14 bushels per acre on the arua sov/n. This compares with a yield of over 
18 bushels per acre on last year's sov/n area. 

winter v/heat crop of 458 million bushels together with avor^ge pro- 
duction of spring v/heat v/ov.ld result in a total crop for the ^nitod States of 
only about 700 million bushels, T'his is less than domestic utilization during 
1930-31 and less than the probable utilization for the current season. In 
1930-31 domestic utilisation amounted to 728 million busviels and about the 
s'-^me amount v/ill be used during the current season. These o^ncLmts are Inrger 
than usual, hov/ever, because of heavy feeding. Ordinarily domestic utilization 
in the United States amouits to abovit 500 million bushels used for food, 
75 million for seed at present acreage levels and 40 to 50 million bushels for 
feed. The amount used for feed, hov/ever, is greater than visual when v/heat 
prices are lov/, especially if they are lov/ relative to f<j^;d grains as has been 
the case in the past t'.vo years. 

Such indications as are available s'ug'gest, however, that spring v/heat 
yields, in some regions at least, may be below average. Spring wheat yields 
shov/ a close relationship to fall precipitation and v/eather conditions from 
April to Jiily. Last fall there was continued dry weather throughout some of 
the spring v/heat area, and this points to lov/ yields unless there is generous 
rainfall in tnese areas during the spring months. Over most of the spring 
v/hcat area fall precipitation v;as about average, but subsoil moisture may be 
d :f icicnt bec vuse of the very dry v;eather last spring and summer. 



-6- 



V/itii tente.tive indications pointinii,, to a carry-ov^r of -.vlieat in tlie 
United States a little larger than tliat of last year, present indications are 
tliat the total supply of v/hsat availalole in t/,3 United States during the 
1932-33 crop year v/ill he rauch sraaller than s'.:-pplies 'la-zo 'tween d'arin:^' the 
cxiTrent year, llarch 1 stocks on fe-rnis, in interior elevators and niills, and 
comercial stocks totalled 45 million busliels larger than those of last year. 
Consequently unless smaller nill stocks or lar;2er exports in the last four 
months of the sea.son counterhalance these, the carry-over will oe larger. 
3ven if the carry-over shovJ.d he as much as 20 to 50 million oushel s larger 
than last year, a reduction of the v;heat crop from 892 million to 700 million 
hushels '70uld far more than counterhalance this and make total supplies around 
150 million hxishels smaller than during- the current season. 

There \7ill ho an ahiijidanco of v/heat availahlo in the United States for 
domestic recniiremDnts, of co-orso, and due to the large c "-rry-over, the United 
States v/il_ prosunably have a lar.ge amotuit of r/hoat uhich can ho e>;ported next 
season, i'^evertholess, present indications as tc the "./inter v/heat crop appear 
to give assurance that there \/ill he no forced selliU;-; of wheat in the export 
market due to lack of stora^^e space. 

The price at which importing countries can ohtain the surplus of the 
United States and Canada is apparently largely dependent upon the outlool^ for 
the nev/ crop in those oo-antries. This appears to he particularly true in the 
case of supplies from the United States. Throughout the greater part of the 
current season United States prices have heon higher than they arc ordinarily, 
relative to Liverpool. Indeed, during January- Hay fut-ares at Chicago rose 
ahove the price of ITa;' futures at Liverpool and contin\,.ed ahcve Liverpool 
prices fairly steadily xintil almost the middle of llarch. In Ilarch, however, a 
djcline of prices in the U-ited States set in, -which carried Chicago prices 
dov/mvard more rapidly than Liverpool prices, and durin;-;: the latter part of 
March and early April, Hay futures at Chicago v/ere lov/er than the corresponding 
futxires at Liverpool. The April report of the Crop Reporting Board -.vas 
follov/ed hy a more rapid rise of prices in the United States t.-i:i,n at Liverpool 
and on April 11 liay futures at Chicago had again risen ahov^ Liverpool futures. 
Apparently the ovidonco of a short crop of winter wheat i.i the Ui.itcd States 
has strengthened the domestic wheat in the United States h^^ decreasing the 
likelihood of there heing y^ressure upon holders of whcrot to export. 

\7orld Trade and Surj^luses 

V/orld v/heat shipments, after having risen to a hig>. level in Jariu:iry 
under the influence of rapidly mounting oxj;)orts from Argentina and Australia, 
declined to a slightl;^ lov;er level during February "s a result primarily of 
the decline in the v/heat i.iovement from Australia. There follov/oci anotlier 
increase as Argentine shipments rose to the highest level of the season, hut 
v/orld shipments again declined during the latter part of l&'.rch, as the peak of 
t]ie movement from Arg>jntina suhsidjd. 

T/'crc is some evidence th.at Liverpool prices, and to a lesser extent 
United States prices also, have reacted to the fluctuating le-vcl of v/orld 
shipments. As shipments i-icrcasod during January, prices at Liverpool weakened 
somewhat, hut then strengthened ae:'.in shortly after the decline of shipments 
to lov/cr levels in February . The strengthening' of pric.js \/a3, ho;/ever, follo-.-ed 
hy a later decline which sot in at about the time v/orld shipments reached their 
Llarch peak of nearly 13 million bushels during one ./eek of that month. -larly 



■ 1x1— I 



in April pricos again raovGcL up'.vard follov/in:^ the dccliiiG of shipmontn to 14 
i'liillion "bushels for tho last v/ook of luarch. 

Australian shipments havu had a narked dovrnv/ard trend over since the latter 
part of January, but Argentine shipments coritinued upv/ard xmtil llarch, "/hen in 
each of tv/o -.reelcs slijhtly over 7 million "bushels ".vere ship-ped . Since tlien Hi ere 
has "been a sharp decline, v/hich s'j^gests that the po:".l: of the Arr^-;entine movement 
is past and that a dov/nv/ard trend may "be expected in the next fe-.v months. Kean- 
v/hile North American shipinents have varied "but little from an avera^'e of slightly 
over 5 million "bushels -.veekly, eJ:cept durin.^ late Fe"'jru:try and K.irch, v/hen they 
declined "by ahou.t 1 million "bushels ".Teekly, Late in I'arch, hov;ever, there v;as a 
rapid rise in North American shipments coincident uith the decline of Argentine 
shipments. 

Supplies of v/heat availa"ble for export and carry-over, as of April 1 in 
tho 4 principal ercporting covjitries, United States, Canada, Argentina and 
Australia, together ..dth qioantities afloat and United I'Cingdom port stocks, are 
estimated to "be somev/hat smaller than a year e.-rlior, amounting to -ihout 330 
million bushels compared with 863 million as of April 1, 1931. Quantities afloat 
and port stocks are some'./hat larger than a year ago, as are also supplies of 
United States grain. 3ach of the other exporting countries, hov/ever, is estimated 
to have smaller surpluses than a year ago. Tnc total for Argentina and Austr^.lia 
combined amounts to 151 million bushels compared with 226 million a 3"ear earlier, 
while the Canadian surplus is indicated to be about 175 million bushels or 
35 million less than on .'-pril 1, 1931. 

Table 1.- V/lieat: Supplies available for export and carry-over in the 
4 principal eicporting countries. United Kingdom port stocks, and 
stocks afloat for United Kingdom, Continent and orders, 

April 1, 1930-1932 



Goxui^r^' or position 




Apx^i r 






" 19"30' 


1931 


1932 




:Million busn. 


Million bii.sh. 


Million bus"n. 


United States, domestic grain . . . 


: 338 


351 : 




392 


Canadian .^rain . . , 


: 25 : 


12 




11 






208 


b/ 


175 






5 




28 






116 




(86) 




. : 56 


110 




65 


Total . . . 


, : 67"0 


8D2 


: 757 


United IZingdom port stocks: 














12 
1 


' ) 

■ ) 


15 






14 


) 




Afloat for Continent . . . . . 


. : 15 


21 


) 


59 






13 


: ) 




Total . . . 




3T 










863 


831 



_a/ Years 1950' and 1931; carT'^J-oTor~J^IlJ 

b^/ Carry-over July 31, 1931, plus production, less domestic utilization and 
net exports -".ugust 1-December 31 and total exports January - I.Iarch. 
cj' Carry-over January 1 pl\is prodi-^ction less domestic utilization and exports 
during January - Harch. d/Official report of exportable surplus as of I.iirch 5 
less trade report of experts ilarch 6 - J.pril 2. 



sullies of dome = -tlo crai:-. in the United Statos available i or e.cport and 
;arr-0T3r* .re indicated to De approximately 392 million bushels as of .pri 1 
?^is" -ear compared vn th 351 million last year. This is a row;h estimate hased 
!r asrlonte- ' e tim",to of 400 million bushels from vMch estimate the 8 million, 
Z^^s exported durin,.arohhas subtraetel eSl^stoL ; 

!f :fr:::r3l"Sr::nrnra;aU:ri:!^-i:frc;;"i :n far., in intenor . 

:iev tors ird mUls and co.nmeroial stocks totalled 45 million bushels larger i 
?,i°n a "4 ear ieJ. Last -ear stocks of wheat stored and omiea by mills | 
wfre :all smaU due to~ the abnormal relationship between near and distant , 
fitur^s but "stocks of Wheat stored by mills for others were unusually large. , 
:m «e expected this year to have somewlmt larger stocks of o-e* *-/ » 
but the amount which they have in store for others will presumably prove to oe 
smaller than last year. Hence total ndll 

those of a year ago. Furthermore, it seems ^^^^J ^"'^^ ^l,':^^^. K^e : 
the remainder of the ourrait season may be somewhat larger than uurin^ .ae ^ 
cfrresooaiding period of 1: st season because the abnorn^l - f;°-'-f °^ ^ 

last year tended to resrit in reducing flo--", stocks to a minimum .t .ne .nd 
of the year, thus reducing srlndings during '.he lat.ar p.Jt oi .he year 
a sutnorraal level. 

Seeding Conditions_iji j:)jiJi^^^ 

Conditions in Canada prior to seeding seem to ^oe only slightl:^ more 
favorable than in the two preceding years. Rainfall at ^^^"^ ,^.^3 
stations in the prairie provinces has heon more plonxif al ^^^^'^t^^^^ 
of ■-o-^il this year than in either of the two preceding years yitn the exception 
of th~e rbgion Irow^d Calgary .here no rainfall has hoen J f sh'ould 

this early in the month may 1 less eflective than tnat Ir.^r on hut it snoui 
hel-D to provide soil moisture for the germination of xhe seeds. On -^^^^^f 
W, lemperat^ores so far in April have heen lower than in ^J-^-^-J^- 
seasons. Should this cooler weather continue it would retard tue 

e^son and increase the lihelihood of damage from heat ^-J^l^^^^J^^""''' 
later on. Pall precipitation was not far from average, hut tne ^rou.id m 
the winter was reported to he dry. 

Pric 0 3 

Y/heat ^oricos at the ::rincipal world markets declined during March. Cash 
-iric-s -^t some of t^^e protected markets of importing countries, nowover 
^^g-; L; d ::::e impro^.tm..t d^ing the month. Futures ^^^^^"^^^^^^ 
qtahle durin- the fn rst two weeks of Ilcrch, hut during tnu latter part they 
d ^ Ld SSe decline was arrested near the end of the month -^^^-^ 
on the 31st at most of the principal world markets was from 2 to . cent. ahov. 
the low point for the r.onth. 

At Chicago, Llay futures closed on the Ist of Ilarch at 613. - 3/8 cents. 
The high point ior the month cc^e on Hare h 5 when lla^ Tso^/flt/S The 
611-- _ 5/8. the low point C:u-.ie on March 26 with a close of 52-3/4 - V^' ^J^^ 
oi^e o( ^he 31st was 54-1/8. The movement of 

and Minneapolis was similar to that at Chicago, e.x^t tnat ^^^"^ f 
the decline during the month was somewhat larger, u^ln:^lpeg li^y futures 



TI-72 



-9- 



closGd at 53.7 to 58.0 cents in terns of Uiij tod otates curreac:y on March 1, 
readied r, high point of 60. o to 60.7 on M.-rch 10, and <:.. lo-;/ of 53.2 to 53.3 
on ".Larch 28, and closed at ^^-S-J. on I;Iarch 31. hivarpool Lla; fi.itures follov/ed 
a course siniih-^r to that at 'Tinnipeg, as did jlaj^ futures at , Buenos Aires. On 
Llarch 1 Liverpool Llay futures closed at about Ocie-half cent under Cliicago, 
whereas, on i.Iarch 31 the close of 56-1/4 cents at Liverpool ./ s atout S-l/S 
cents ahov.e Chica^'o. 

C.:.sh prices at the princip:i,l •■.vorld markets declined v/ith futures Wo. 2 
Hard './'inter at Kansas City nveraged 52.4 cents for tiie week ended Ivlarch 4, as 
co:.r:?-red with 46.6 cents for the week ended I'l.irch 25. An improvement during 
the ivoek ended April 1 resulted in an average for that v/eek of 47.7 cents per 
"bushel. No. 1 Dark Northern Spring at llinneapolis registered sir.iilar declines 
diirinj^ tlie nontu of lljirch, Lv.t instead of improving durin'_, tne v;oek ended April 
1, continued to decline, averaging 66.4 cents for the wee'.z e.s compared with 
75.4 cents per bushel for the v;eek ended ilarc'i 4. No, G I.ianitoba Northern xt 
'.7i4inipeg declined from an average of 50.7 cents for the weak ended Ilarch 4 as 
compared with 46,9 cents for the week ended April 1, Near futures at Buenos 
Aires followed a course during' March similar to that of the cash prices at 
the above mentioned markets. At all of thesj four markets there was a slight 
improvement during the second week of Ilarch and for Nansas City ar.d 'Jiiinipeg 
slight improvement d'oring the last week. At Buenos Aires and liinneapoli s, 
however, prices continued to decline through the remainder of the month. At 
the majority of continental markets casn prices tended to improve dxiring Karch. 
Domestic wheat at Berlin averaged (;'1.59 for the week ended Karch 4, after a 
1 cent decline dui'ing the following week, prices advanced at that market to 
an average of .)l,b6 for the week ended April 1. At Paris domestic v/heat 
averaged vl.75 for the tv/o v/eeks ended liarch 11, and advanced drndng the 
remainder of the month to an average of vpl,83 for tlio week ended April 1. At 
I'lilan casii prices declined from an average of )l.72 for the t'/o weeks ended 
Harch 11 to an average of ,^1.57 for the week ended 'ipril 1, 

Tne declines whicli occurred at most of the principal world marliets 
dviring I.'.arch v/erc associated :7ith relatively jieavy shipments of wheat from 
the Southern Hemisphere, an increase in the official estim.r'.te of the 1931-32 
wheat crop in Argentina and uiiusually heav^ receipts at the primary hard winter 
\7heat markets of the United States. The advances './iiic/i occurred at some cf 
the protected import markets can be accounted for in some degree by the 
depleted stocks of v;heat for milling at thopo m/irkets. 



- 10 - 



Table 2.-'Jheat: 7/eigh.ted average cash pi'ices per bushel 
at statoc. markets, January 1-April 1, 1932 





:A11 classes 


: IJo. 2 


: i'lo. 1 ■ 


: l!o 


O 


: 


: V/estem 




:a,nd grades 


:Hard Winter 


:Dli.iT. Spring 


: Amber 


Djrum 


:F.ed "Vinter 


: v/hite 


en d pd 


:six_ markets 


.Kansas City 


stlinneapolig 


: Minneapolis 


: St. Louis 


: Seattle a/ 


- 








ly 32 


;1931 


: 1932 


• 1931 


: ly 


: 1931 






: 19 32 






, Gents 


uentis 


. oents 


'Cents 


: oejits 


!C_eirts 


; Geii-ts 


; Cents 


: ;_.ents 


^ents 


: Cents 


Jan* 1 




; o)o 


by ; 


OX 




/4 


r 2 


\ o o 


bl 


OO 


6c 


: CO 




71 




by ; 




0 


n A 


'n o 




/ b 


I o / 


66 




1 ^ 


' o 


en 


f X ' 


Do 




r-j rf 

(7 


lo 


t 66 


/y 


rr ' 

Oc 


6 c 






i ri 


oo 


" Q 


04 ' 


77 


"3 


73 


90 


GO 


Ob 


to 


C 1 


tfi^ */ 


71 


Al 


by ; 


OX 


( O 


{ ( 


( £j 


oO 


I b 


OO : 


6c 




Feb . 5 


, 71 


60 : 


69 : 


54 ; 


75 : 


78 


72 


86 


78 


57 : 


66 


64 




. 71 


57 • 


69 : 


52 : 


7b • 


76 • 


73 


84 


79 


56 ! 


66 


61 


19 


71 . 


58 : 


69 : 


54 : 


75 


•77 : 


74 


• 86 : 


79 


58 : 


CO , 


63 


26 


71 


60 : 


70 : 


55 : 


75 : 


77 : 


73 


86 ! 


80 • 


58 : 


to . 


65 


Mar . 4 


71 : 


59 : 


70 : 


52 : 


75 : 


75 : 


71 


85 : 


78 : 


57 : 


66 : 


63 


11 


71 < 


59 : 


70 : 


53 ■ 


75 : 


76 : 


71 ! 


81 : 


79 : 


56 : 


66 ; 


63 


18; 


71 : 


56 : 


70 : 


52 : 


76 : 


73 : 


72 ; 


79 : 


78 : 


55 : 


66 ; 


60 


25 


72 


56 : 


71 : 


47 : 


77 ! 


67 : 


72 : 


74 : 


79 : 


52 : 


66 : 




Apr,!! Ij 


74 




72 : 




79 : 




73 : 




79 : 




0 / ' 





average of dail; 



cash quotations basis i-Io. 1 sacked 50 days delivery. 



Table 3. -./heat: Closing prices per bushel of May futures 
at stated rnarlcets, January 9-April 2, 1932 



Date 



Chicago:© 



Ko-nsas City 



Minneapolis 





:1951 


:1932 


'1931 


:1932 


:1931 


:1932 


:1931 


:1932 


:19 31 


:1932 


:1931 


:1952 






;Cents 


: Gent 3 


•Gents 


[Cents 


[Cents 


:Cents 


jCents 


iCents 


[Cents 


; Cents 


•Cents 


: Cents 


-J an. 


9 


. 83 


: 57 


74 


. 49 


77 


: 68 


56 


: 53 


63 


: 57 


:c/50 


:c/44 




16 


: 82 


: 59 


74 


51 


77 


69 


• 56 


54 


: 62 


: 55 


c/48 


:c/42 




23 


. 82 


. 58 


74 


50 


77 


68 


57 . 


53 


61 


55 


c/47 


:g/42 




30 


82 


. 59 


73 


50 


76 


69 


58 


54 


61 


, 55 


c/47 


:c/42 


Feb. 


6 


82 


. 58 


73 


50 


77 


68 


62 


55 


63 


55 


c/47 


:c/43 




13. 


83 


61 


74 


52 


77 


71 ! 


63 


58 : 


64 


58 


c/49 


:c/45 




20 


83 < 


62 ! 


74 . 


53 


77 


70 : 


65 . 


59 ! 


67 


61 : 


c/52 


:cJAo 




27 < 


82 


62 ' 


73 : 


53 : 


76 : 


70 : 


59 : 


60 : 


55 


61 ! 


52 


: 49 


Mar • 


5: 


82 


62 ' 


73 ; 


53 : 


76 : 


70 : 


60 ! 


61 : 


63 ! 


59 : 


49 


: 48 




12 


82 • 


51 : 


73 i 


52 ! 


75 • 


70 ! 


59 : 


60 ! 


62 : 


59 : 


50 


: 49 




19 : 


82 


54 : 


73 . 


46 ; 


7 6 ! 


62 : 


59 : 


54 : 


62 ! 


55 : 


46 


: 47 




26 < 


82 


53 : 


73 : 


45 : 


76 ! 


57 ; 


57 : 


53 : 


61 : 


d/56 : 


45 


:o/46 


Apr. 


2- 


83 . 




74 




d/77 : 




d/57 : 




u/61 : 




d/46 





iVinnipeg a/ 



Liverpool 

/ 

ay 



Buenos 
Aires b- 



a/ Conversions October 1931 to date at 

b/ Prices are of day previous to other 

c/ March futures. 

d/ Pr e v i ous Th ur s da*? ' s pr ice. 

e/ Previous V/ednesda^-' s price. 



noon buying 
prices . 



r 1 e of 0 >:c h ang e . 



vm-72 



- 11 - 



Table 4.-',/'heat: Price per bushel at specif iod marl-iets , 
January 6-April 8, 1932 



V/eelc 


• Kan 1^ a 


• Mi TTDP — 


: V/ i nn i — 


■ Ri]'^Ti n 


; Iiiver~ 


: Great 


'Berlin 


' Paris 


' Milan 


ended 


• C i t V 

• a/ 


• aT n 1 1 '5 

• b/ 


G / 


• Aires 

• d/ 


■ pool 
e / 


• Bi'itain 


: e/ 


■ / 

: £/ 


• / 

; k/ 




; Cents 


; Gents 


. Gents 


! Gents 


. Cents 


: Cents 


! Cents 


: Gents 


! Cent 3 


Jan« 8 


51.6 


; 74.2 


: 43.1 


42.7 


57 .9 


; 54.3 


! 143 


168 




15 


53.1 


77.3 


43.0 


41.9 


50 .7 


. 53.7 


145 


166 


: 155 


22 


54.2 


78.8 


44. 1 


41. ? 


54.6 


. 54,0 


146 


: " 170 


: 154 


29 ! 


51.5 


75.8 


44 . 1 


"59 .9 


53.7 


: 53.2 


150 


169 


153 


Feb. 5 


53.7 


77 . 6 


45.2 


41.7 


55.7 


52.4 


156 


168 


! ' 158 


12: 


51.9 


75.9 


45.2 


42.7 : 


58.7 


51.4 . 


157 


172 


• 153 


19 ' 


54-1 








A?. 4 


5? .4 - 


1 61 

X U J- 


175 


1 69 


26: 


54.6 


77.3 : 


51.1 


. 48.1 : 


53.3 


53. 6 , 


159 


. 176 


172 


Liar. 4: 


52.4 


75.4 : 


50.7 : 


47.8 : 




55.4 : 


159 


175 


172 


11: 


52.9 • 


75.5 


52.1 . 


48.2 : 




59.3 


158 


175 


172 


16: 


51.6 : 


73.1 : 


49..9 : 


48.1 : 




59.1 . 


163 


178 


170 


25: 


46.6 : 


67.1 


46.5 : 


46.0 : 






161" : 


179 


170 


Apr . 1 : 


47.7 : 


66.4 : 


46.9 : 


45.8 : 






166' 


183 


. 167 


8: 


















168 



Prices are averages of daily prices for weeks ending Friday except' as f ollov/s : 
Great Britain prices of hoine grov/n wheat are averages for the v/eek 
ending Saturday. Berlin, Paris, and Milan prices are '.Vednesday quota- 
tions. Prices at "Vinnipeg, Buenos Aires and Liverpool are converted 
to United States money at the current rates of e::change beginning with 
the week ended September 26. Prices at Berlin, Paris and Lilian are 
converted at the current rates beginning September 2. 

a/ Y.o, 2 Hard "/inter. 

b/ i'iO. 1 Dark ^lorthern Spring. 

c/ uo, 3 Manitoba Northern. 

d/ i\ear futures. 

qJ All sales of imx-^orted parcels. 

f/ ?Iome grown wheat in Ilngland and './ales. 

Domestic, "Markischer" wheat 58-69 pounds per Winchester bushel. 



m-72 



- 12 - 



Table S.-Whoat: Avorago price per tusliel of parcels of specified 
descriptions c. i, f. at Liverpool, specified "Dcriods, 
1930-31 to 1931-32 



Period 


rio. 3 Ilanitoba I\Iorthern 


Rosafe 


: 1930-31 


: 1931-32 


1930-31 










: Oents 


t W Oil u O 




■ pen ts 


July 


• • • 




: 108 


: 63 


: 103 


: . 57 


Aug. 


• • • 




I 104 


60 


^ 07 




Sept. 


• « 




: 93 • 


! -58 




' , 54 


Oct. 


• • 0 




87 


59 

t kJ ■J 


8? 


• . 54 


J; OV . 


• • • 




79 




76 


• A"^ 


Dec . 


• s • 




75 


60 




• Pi4 


Jan. 


• • 0 




71 


• • 6? < 


61 ' 


> ^? 

> ■ «J<i 


Feb. 


• e a 




72 

1 A-/ 




A"^ < 


! «JO 


Mar. 


0 0 • 




■ 71 




AT 




Week: 












Jan. 


1 




Ok? ( 




AH 


i DO 




8 






AT • 


oo 


O'i 




15 






AP- • 

Dii ■ 1 


A'' < 


XjO 




22 




70 


A"^ • 

DO : 


AD ■ 






29 


• t*oo»»«« ! 


70 ; 


• .62 . , : 


59 ! 


51 


Feb. 


5 


• •••oo««» ! 


79 . 


AT • 

OX. \ 


Afl • 






12 




73 : 


61 : 


63 ! 


53 




19 


• ••««o«a« ! 




54 : 


64 : 


56 




26 


• ••••0«Q« ] 




67 : 


64 : 


59 


Mar. 


4 


• •••Q«««a i 


71 J 


67 : 


62 : 


58 




11 


• ••••n««* 


71 : 




62 : 






18 




73 : 




62 : 






25 




71 ! 




60 : 




Apr. 


1 




68 ! 




59 J 





Compiled from Broomliall's Dairy Com Trade Kev/s. 



The Wlioat S ituation in Arg:entina during; M arcli a/ 

FrodTiction estimate s 

The second official estimate of the Argentine v/Iieat crop of 1931-32, 
released i.Iarch 5, 1932, placed the crop ct 225,924,000 bushels as compared v/ith 
the first estimate (December 4, 1931) of 218,623,000 bushels. This second 
estimate is considered by some to bo a little lov;. The quality of the 1931-32 4 
crop is exceptionally good. 

Chartcrin.g:, freigiit rates, etc. 

There was a lull the first v/eclc in March in chartering for future grain 
shipments. Since that time, chartering v/as qiiito active up to the Easter 
holidays vmich commenced on March 24. Little change has occurred in 0. c. rato3« 

a/ Bised on report of Glenn 3. Ray, :.gricuitural Commissioner, Buenos Aires, 
Argentina. March 29, 1932. 



•^-72 



- 13 - 



■Jhoat sooms to bo coming to tlio ports in largo voluiTio and is in good demand in 
Suropo bocauso of its oxccllont quality this season. Duo to its high quality, 
Argontino wheat at present is able to oompoto on lavorablo terms v/ith wheat from 
other parts of the v/orld. 

Th e whea t crop fo r 193 3-G5 

Preparation of groimd for the noxt crop is being carried on quite active- 
ly in most sections of the v/licat zone. Rr.infall in rebrv.ary and -in March, to 
date, has been well above average, thus enabling plowing to bo carried on 
advantageously. In a few localities the corn harvest has been earlier than 
usual and this woric has interfered to some extent, but not seriously, with the 
preparation of. ground for the next vAieat crop. In a fov; places some varieties 
of v/heat, such as Kanred and Lin Calel, have been planted, but seeding is not 
at all general as yet. 

• I>ur um Prospects in the United Stat es 
M ovement of 1951 crop 

Present indications are that there is little, if any, d^irura remaining in 
the producing ■ regions beyond the requirements of the semolina millers and 
Xolanting requirements, in spite of the fact that heavy carry-over at the be- 
ginning of the season brought the total supply up to about 38,742,000 bushels 
vvhich is about average domestic utilization for all purposes. Takings of 
semolina millers in the J.Iinneapolis-Duluth region from July 1 through December 
1931, reached 7,346,000 bushels, which is sliglitly in excess of the 7,538,000 
bushels used in the same period last year. Semolina requ.irements from. January 
to Jime last year were 5,852,000 bushels. 

Cargo shijomcnts out of Duluth and Superior, from v/hich the bulk of the 
requirements of Hastern users and of exports are talcen, reached only 4,750,000 
bushels in the eight months July-February, comp.-red v;ith 21,799,000 bushels a 
year earlier. Sliipments of anber durum, part of which is required by eastern 
brealcfast food concerns and similar users, readied only 2,019,000 bushels com- 
pered with 3,401,000 in t]ie s^^me period last year. Shipments of mixed durum 
and durum subclasses were only 2,575,000 bushels com.pared with 15,391,000 
bushels a year earlier. A large jjart of the siiipments of these tv/o classes 
usually goes into export channels. Red durum shipments were only 156,000 bushels 
compared with 3,007,000 bushels a year earlier. 

Differences in area seeded in the coming year as indicated by reports of 
farmers' intentions to plant would not result in any great difference in the 
amount of durum reserved for seed from the amount used a year ag'O. 

Visible supplies at Duluth on I.Iarch 1 and at public elevators in 
Minneapolis on the Saturday nearest the first of the month were only 9,206,000 
bushels compared with 17,557,000 bushels a year earlier. 

The balance of durum unaccounted for as of March 1 is about 14,000,000 
bushels compared with about 35,000,000 bushels a year earlier. Of these amounts 
in both years some part had been consumed prior to March 1 for purposes other 
than grinding into flour and semolina and for breakfast foods. Some is used 
for prepared livestock and chicken feeds, especially red durum. Small amounts 



V/H-72 



- 14 - 



I 



get mixed with bread wheats. Srnall araounts, ^^P^^^^l^^^^^^^-^"^ '^^^^^^^ 
south Of the Dal.otas, are also sent directl, to Kansas Gaty f^^,^,^^' ^° J^^^^^^^^ 
similar milling centers and thus would not arrpear m the dxstrxoation items 
shovn. above. Annual domestic utilization of durun in-ways ^^^^^^^^ T^lt s^^^^ 
mentioned above, together with errors of estimate, nave ran^,ed xn -^^^^^"^ 
years from about 6 million bushels in 19E5-26 to about o7 million m 1930 ol. 

Table 5. -Supply and distribution of durum wheat in the United States, 
July to February, 1950-31 and 1931-32 



Item 


• 1930-31 • 


1931-32 


SUPPLY 


• 1.000 : 

a kJ IX. O X J. %y • 


1,000 
bvtshels 


StoGlcs July 1 , 
On farms and counxiry mixis cina oxovduuxo ^/ 
Commercial stocl^.s, Llinneapolis and Duluth b/ .o = ..« 


. 12,270 : 
10,375 : 
. ..: 66.979 : 


3,607 
16,740 

22.873 


Total supply . . . . 0 • 0 . . . . 0 . . 0 . . 


0 - . : 89.624 


43.220 






DISTEiSUTIOW 






Moxmt groimd 

July-Dec • c/ ..... = o = . o .» .•. = ■>"«''••••••''• ' 

( Janr-Peb . ) d/ ^ , .... c ........ ^ • 

Cargo shipments out of Duluth-Superior, July-i^'o^. ej 


. 0 . : 7 , 338 
(2,284) 
21,799 
. (5,800) 


: 7 , 346 
: (2,267) 
: 4,750 
: (5,800) 


Visible supply, Minneapolis and Duluth, i.iar. lb/ ... 


»..: 17.557 


: 9.208 




: 29.591 




34.046 


: 13.629 





)ompiled as l'ollov;s : 

a/ Based on returns to the Bureau from crop roportero. 

y Daily Commercial Record and Llimeapolis Daily Marlcet f^^l^' 

Minneapolis figures are public elevator stocl.s on tne .aturday 
nearest the first of the month. . 
c/ United States Department of Commerce; Foodstuffs 'Round the .^orla, 

d/ Fofl950-3i^f igures are one-third of the total for the six month 

period January- Juiie, and for 1931-32 estimate assuming c on- 
• option bears the kme relation to consuir.ption the preceding 

si- months as in that period of the preceding year, 
e/ Licensed inspections of durum viieat cargoes. 

1/ laicludes amounts already used for feeds ,° ^'''^ J^^l^^^ 
balances for use for all purposes the remainder of t..e s.^son, 

loss, etc. 



Grade an d 3u'oclas3_qf_^c,ojjits. 

Total inspections of durum ^i^oat receipts at -|^f t^l^^'Jj^re 
superior in the ei^.t months ended February ^^^^'/fi^J^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^I^ 
only 8,429,000 bushels, (estimated on the basis of 1,^00 ^^^^nols to ^Le car^ 
compark with 40,203,000 bushels last year when ^-^^f if J ;7f,^^?f ":7tho| 
ro-oresented about 80 per cent of the total inspections .t ^^^^^^ 
se;son. Receipts have fallen off both at L.innoapolis ..no. .aluoh oup.rior du 



\m-7z 



- 15 - 



tho big roduction is at Duluth-Supcrior, v/hcre inspected rocoipts for the eight 
months ondod with robruary woro only 2,330,000 bushels coinparcd with 26,819,000 
bushels in tho corrosponding period last year. 

The quality of the 1931 dunrn crop appears to have been excellent. Of 
the duruin receipts, including mixed durum, inspected at llinneapolis and Duluth- 
Superior from July 1, 1931 through rebruary 1932, 53 per cent v/ere subclass 
ajTiber, v/hich is a higher percentage of amber than in any of the preceding seven 
years, and ajpparently the highest at least since 1919-20. Last year inspections 
of amber durum comprised 43 per cent of the total. I.Iixed durum so far this year 
comprised less than 33 jjer cent of the total comioared with over 39 per cent 
last year. Red durujp. inspections were less than 9 per cent of the total com- 
paroc with 12 per cent a year earlier. Subclass duroi'n inspections were between 
5 and 6 per cent of the total in both periods. 

In grade also, the receipts from the 1931 crop Iiave been running better 
than averjge but not so fOod as the unusually higli grades of the 1930 crop. 3o 
far t/iis season tho first two grades included 71 per cent of the total receipts 
compared \7ith nearly 82 per cent last year and an avera[;e of about 61 per cent 
in the procedinr; ten years, xhe first three grades included 90 per cent so far 
tills year compared with 93 per cent last year and an averaf;e of 80 per cent. 
Receipts of Grade 1 were not large, being onlj 11 per cent of the total compared 
with nearly 22 per cent last yet.r and an average of 17 per cent. 

Foreign demand 

Hxport demand for the current crop has been light in spite of the roduc*- . 
ti on in the Canadian durum crop and the apparent moderate size of the Italian 
and Nortii ..frica:i durum crops. Total duriun imports by Italy from July through 
December 1931 ajiiountod to only 2,561,000 busiaels comi:;arod v;ith 13,899,000 bushels 
in the same period the preceding year, and im.ports from rTorth iimerica, partly 
from the United States and partly from Canada, amounted to only 1,778,000 bushels 
compared with 10,046,000 bushels a year earlier, fallings from Russia were only 
535,000 bushels compared with 5,488,000 a year earlier. 

Total durum, imports into Prance, includinj.^ grain for reexport from July 1, 
1931, through January 1932, aiiounted to 7,347,000 bushels compared witii 7,579,000 
bushels a year earlier, and taxings from Ivorth America were 1,914,000 bushels 
compared v;ith 1,650,000 bushels a year earlier. 

The falling off in Italian imports is partly explained by increases in 
the Italian import duty on \/heat, and restrictio?is on the amount of foreign 
duruiTi allowed in manufacture of diu-oin products, as './ell as the high price of 
ilorth iunerican durtims relative to bread wheats. The dvity on wheat in Italy was 
increased effective August 19, 1931 to 75 paper lire per quintal, then equivalent 
to 107.37 cents per bushel, com.pared to the former duty of 16.5 gold lire, equiva- 
lent to 86.67 cents a bushel. The drastic milling restrictions on use of foreign 
durum which probably limited Italian imports early in tlie season have been gra.du- 
ally reduced until since January they have x^rocably been shuttinf: out little if 
any dviru-.i L.iportation. Beginning July 2, 1^31, only 5 per cent of foreign durum 
v.-as permitted in duram milling; by Ilovomber 1 tho percentage w'as increased to 
25 per cent, then to 50 per cent by January 1, 1932 and SO per cent by February 1. 
A further increase is annoujicea to ta,I-ce effect April 26 which raises the percent- 
age to 90 for northern Italy excluding Latium and to 85 for the remainder of the 
country. These reductions may be reflected in increased takings as soon as the 
Groat Lalces are open to navigation. 



- 16 - 



Tatle 7.- Italy: Imports of diirwa wheat countries, July-December, 

■ 1929-1931 



Co"UJitry from 
wMch im^Dorted 



Germany 

Soviet Hussia . . 
Argentina . . . , 

Canada aj . , 
United States aj 
Other countries 

Total . . . 



1929 



■r - Dec , 
Susheis 

0 



■ 3,821 
5,111,696 
830,179 
177, 103 



6, 122, 79^ 



1930 _ 
July - Dec. 
Bushels 

0 

3,487,861 
193,160 
8,365,407 
1,684,902 
169,864 

13,899, 194 



1931 

Julj^ - Dec. 
Bushels • 

37 

532,521 
120,040 
1,468,374 
309,489 
130,182 



2,560,643 



Comi^iled from Statistica del Gomi-aercio Speciale di Importazione e di Esportazione. 
a/ luuch United States durum is exported through Canada and/ fisted in reports of 
imoortinff countries as ori.'^^inet iny in Canada. 



Tahle 8.- Prance J 



Imports of dururn v/heat "by coxuitries, July-January, 
1929-30 to 1931-32 



Commerce Special 



Co-untry 


1929-30 


1930-31 


1931-32 
Tuly-Jan. 


: 1930-31 


• 193l-5_2 

, July-Jan. 


July- Jan, 


, July- Jan. 


, July- J an. 




Bushels 


' Bushels 


Bushels 


Bushels 


Bushels 


United States a/ 


102,466 


; 244,773 


228,499 


294,942 


156,813 


Canada _a/. . . . < 


74, 141 


• 1,119,654 


• 1,573,236 


. 1,365,445 


1,757,403 


Australia . . . . . 


y 


b/ 


y 


b/ 


b? 


Soviet Russia . . 


1/ 


.V 


i/ 






^i.l^ci'ia 


2,001,758 


3,396,730 


1,530,558 


3,895,304 • 


1,541,805 


Tuni s ! 


2,774,041 


1,832,570 


2,611,150 


1,833,621 : 


2,667,595 


llorocco 


309,467 


27,400 


098, 992 


27,400 


893,793 


Belgi-uTi 


c^/ 605 




1/ 


b/ 




Arcontine Republic 


'cj 368 


. c'/ 4,593 




21,153 • 


oj' 6 , 540 


Other cotuitries . . 


^' 6,355 . 


d/l35,623 


d/ 219,773 


_d/ 141,609 • 


d/ 323,474 




5,269,703 


6,761,479 - 


7,062,208 . 


7,579,474 


7,347,428 



Commerce General 



Couipiled from Statistique I.IensuGlle du Commerce Sxterie-'or de la France. 

a/ i.-uch United States dun^m wheat is exported through Canada and is listed in 

reports of importing countries as originating in Canada, 

b_/ If any, included in other countries. 

oj January only. 

d/ Other countries obtained by subtraction. 



- 17 - 



Prices 

The short domestic s'tipply of dunim wheat has "been reflected in high 
prices of that class as compared with other wlieats all season, '/ei^ted aver- 
age monthly prices of A'o. 2 timber at liinneapolis from AU£,a;.st through March 
iiave ranged from 4 cents a ousliel more -tiian rio. 1 Korthern Spring in, September 
to over 12 cents more in January. The price of i.'o. 2 Durum, which in the past 
has usually been more neL'rIy in line witli tite average price for the durum crop 
as a \;hole, has also been from 4 to 7 cents above the price of Y.o, 1 Horthem 
Spring in the months December through February, but for I.'arch it dropped to 8 
cents belov/. Last year the v/eighted average aimual price of i^o. 2 Durum at 
Minneapolis averaged betv/een 9 and 10 cents below j'.o. 1 Northern Spring. 

Prices of red durum on a pound basis sro cheaper relative to barley than 
they v;ere last year, but are less fc,vora,ble than last year in comparison to 
corn and oats. Last year red durum prices were considerably la;er in compi^-rison 
Y/ith all feed grains than they had been in any of the preceding six years. 

Now crop prospects 

Planting intentions reported by farmers in the diirurn region indicate that 
about tiie same area uill be sown this year as last. In the absence of heavy 
abandonment, this \/ould result in an increase in duri.ira acreage Iiarvested above 
tliat harvested a year ago when there was a heavy abandomnent. The probability 
of higher yields on this year's acreage gives a prospect of considerable in- 
crease in durui'n production over the unusually short crop of 1931. Part of the 
increase in crop will probably be offset by a decrease in carry-over. 

Sarly reports from foreign countries indicate some prospect of an in- 
crease in competition from foreign durum in the coming season, coming mostly 
from Canada, although it is too early for any very reliable infoimation. In 
February sentiment ainong farmers in Kanitoba seemed to be in favor of planting 
increased acreage to durum at the expense of hard rod spring, .-.t that tim.e 
AO. 3 Durum basis Port ■./illiam-Port Artiiur was selling at 13 to 14 cents more 
than i'lo. 3 ilanitoba I'orthern Spring. I lore recently, the premium has fallen 
to about 10 cents for the v/eelr ended March 26, whicli is about t?io same as the 
premium prevailing in April last year. Grades 1 and 2 duruin that week: wore 
selling at 20 and 16 cents above corresponding grades of ilanitoba Northern the 
wcelc ended March 26. Average yields on an increased acreage might result in a 
1932 crop about double the small 19S1 harvest, \/hiCxi no\; appears to have been 
about 8,000,000 bushels. 

In Italy where wheat is nearly all fall sown, the reported acreage sown 
last fall for the 1932 harvest was reduced in Sicil^v' \/horc an important part of 
the durum crop is grown, and ^■/here no^.riy the whole acreage apix^rs to be durum. 
This reduction was groat enougli to more than offset increases in seme other 
departments i/hore durum is grov/n, indicating the probability of a slight net 
decrease in Italian durum acreage, or at least no m.-.tcrial increase. Yields 
of durom in Italy last year appear to have boon a little above average. 

In IMbrth xU'rica it is too carljT for ony very definite indication of 
acreage. The so\/ing season is long; if poor v/oathor is experienced in the fall, 
sowing may be delayed but not necessarily contracted, so all early reports of 
acreage are subject to v/ide revision. Present reports indicate an increase in 



t:/h-72 - 18 - 



.ovn. -wheat .croago in Korth Afrio. ,,hioh is mostly dur.-n Soco 
mont in grovme ^--^^^^-^-^J^'^^l^^^^flJlro oarly report of 

^^r'^^l^^^ S::^Snrr:e:S; reports .ro. .ssistc^t 
Agricultural Goomisslonor L. 3. Hallory. 

: Th<Lj3oniinen^^ ^Icroh a £ 

^^v.tiTi'^T^til nin-oTioan marl<;ot3 during llarch 
Import tro.do in wheat on bie oontxn„ntal especially 
v;as loss aetiye than during the previous month. '^J^'^l^ {.^^,1 ,,,^ess 
,uiet during the latter P"*^ °"-„"°f,:- ,;.;t;d^"odu; d 1 hesitant attitude 
o^iibitod by A^Borioe^ mar' ots f^-fj^^ ''Set business during Itorch, takings 
among continental ^";P"*=rs. f '^^H" ^^H,,^ to about e^ual those for the 
pe^i^od :? arrocerchLges^n milling quotas and other import 

restrictions favor incrcasod imports.. 

AS a result of declining ^-Pf f^' ^--"diiylh^oS^it 
countries of the Continent o«ept I aly ^-^.^^^-^roU "W^l" °f 
in Italy domestic whoat prices v,ea].„hed slightly around ^^^^ 
duo largely to liberal f..rm ofiorings. In ' as «ell as to 

prices have reacted slightly to tho woaxnoss /^^^governniental 

ie approaehlng Easter =-"*^f t *,tLs on the G ntinen? havo shov™ 

ro=!trictions, the movomGiits of doracstic prioos ua o ^ 
fitt" or no relation to prico movements on o.pert mar.ets. 

™r:/-=:^rf:r.:rs^rg Sir:: S-S; ~« 

countries may be suraraarizod as folloi,;s! 

reclining stecl.s and decreased f ^^SS of d^ostio^^^^^^^ 

-St^rs^e^ :^nd^:rs^ , 

^^IlSloSurJSnr^u^Sr::! l-el^re.ing probabiXi. 
v/hoat crop hcs r.lror.dy ooon sola r.nd ^^-^ ^^^^ ^ strongthon- 

suicide of tho S^/odish financior Kr^uger uc-u 
effect upon commodity mcrkots. 



Berlin, Germany, n-.rcli 23 o.nd supplemented by c.ll., ..prii 



TT^n^i^T^^^gricultur^a Commissio-ncr I)oncld F. Christy, 



V/K-72 



- 19 - 



Tcblo 9.- Prico por bushel of domestic v/iioct c.t specified mr.ricots, 

July 2, 1931-iIcrch 30, 1932 



Dcito 


Pnr is 


r.Iilcin 


Berl in 


, Prc-guo 


Vicnnd * 


Poznnn 




Ceri't s 


Gouts 


! Gents 


Gents 


> Cents 


Cents 


1931 ! 














July 2 


190 


134 


17? 


a/l2A 




84 


Aug • 5 • 0 • • • 


157 

J- U 1 


130 


IPG 


116 


104 


50 


Sent . ■ ? b / . 


X '-J 


139 


131 

X O X 


10? 

X W flj 


97 


55 




X O »J 






110 

X XVJ 


9 R 


51 

C X 


i\vjv» Mr ••••• 


X O tJ 


X'd: X 


1 /17 


1 1 A 

X XD 


114- 


70 


i^/wO • tj • • • • • 


xD 






117 

X X 1 


1 1 R 




X (Lj 














U % " • e • • t 


XDO 






X XtJ 


1 PO 




Feb. 3 


158 


158 


155 


113 


: 118 


72 


10 


172 


163 


I 157 


113 


: 116 


74 




17 5 


1 59 


1 Al 

X f? X 


1 14 

X X ir 


115 

, X X t^) 


73 


24 . 


176 


; 172 


159 


116 


115 


73 


Mar. 2 


175 


172 


! 159 


117 


119 


74 


9 


175 


172 


159 


119 


121 


74 


15 


179 


170 


! 163 


: 119 


123 : 




23 ..... 


: 179 


: 170 


161 


119 


124 




50 


183 


167 


166 


119 


123 





r/ Old crop. 

b/ Beginning at this date conversions are made at current rates of exchange. 



Shipments of v/hcat to the Continent and England oxliibitod a rising 
tendency during the four v/oelcs ended about the middle oi Llarch. This rise 
can no longer be called seasonal but should bo looked upon as characteristic 
of the necessity for larger imports from now on. Shipments from Russia and 
the Danube Basin have not played a siraif icant part. Except for a picic up 
around the m.iddlo of January, Russiciii shipments have been small ever since 
last December. 

In addition to the previous purchases of rye made by the Gorman 
Government, an additional 1,772 000. bushels have recently been ^jurchased, 
consisting principally of South American rye and a little from Russia. 



WH-72 



- 20 - 



Table 10.- Wheat and wheat flour shipments to the Continent, 

1928-29 to 1931-32 



Four weeks : : ■ ■ : • 

■ endin.? : 1928-29 . 1929-50 . 1930-31 . 1931-32 



: 1,000 bu s hels ; 1.000 bu shels; 1,000 bushels ; 1,000 bushels 



Aug. 27 : 32,000 : 14,360 ; 25,600 : 14,080 

Sept. 24 , : 32,950 ; 14,340 : 28,160 : ■ 18,560 

Oct. 22 ; 31,360 ; 14,720 ; 23,040 ; 24,160 

Nov. 19 .: 36,400 : 16,760 ; 20,720 : 25,240 

Dec. 17 : 29,280 : 19,3o0 : 16,000 ; 18,240, 

Jan. 14 : 27,720 ; 9,496 : 13,560 ; 9,760 

Feb. 11 : 26,120 : 14,760 : 17,440 ; .15,120 

Mar. 11 : 26,64 0 ; 16,560 : 19,240 ; 17,000 

Aug. 1 to ; : : . : 

Mar. 11 : 242,480 : 120,056' ; 163,760 ; -142,160 

Above shipments; : ; ' ' : ' • 

supplied by -:• : : : 

Lajiube : 2,000 : • 12,512 : 10,016 : 24,784 

Russia : 8 : 1,408 : 13,592 ; 8,240 

Overseas : 240,472 ; 106,156 : 140,152 : 109,136 



Table 11.- Vfheat and wheat flour shipnients to iurope, 1928-29 

to 1931-32 



Four weeks ; 1928-29 • 1929-30 = 1930-31 ' 1931-32 

ending : ; i_ '• 

; 1,000 b ushels ; 1.000 bu s hels ; 1.000 bushels : 1.000 bushels 



Aug. 27 ; 47,160 : 45,600 ; 50,480 : 46,120 

Sept. 24 : 50,300 : 41,320 : 54,080 ; 52,800 

Oct. 22 ; 50,600 : 40,120 : 53,080 ; 50,840 

Nov. 19 : 59,550 ; 50,120 : 58,160 : 50,040 

Dec. 17 : 53,200 : 30,160 ; 37,560 : 35,880 

Jaj^. 14 : 52,960 : 27,720 ; 50,360 : 53,800 

Feb. .11 : 60,440 : 36,960 ; 45,280 ; 42,600 

Mar. 11 : 60,120 ; 32,720 ; 45,200 : 46,560_ 

Aug. 1 to ; ; ; : 

Mar. 11 : 454,840 : 234,720 ____3J9j'^2?- J 

Above shipments; ; ; • 

sup'olied by- ; : . : : 

Danube : 2,000 ; 15,688 ; 10,800 ; 53,808 

Russia ; 8 : 2,480 : 85,664 : 72,016 

Overseas : 452,852 ; 256,552 : 275,755 : 252,816 



'wH-72 - 21 - 

The con tinental Euro i;eLm defi_cit_e stij nate for 19 countries 

The deficit estimate for 19 co-ontries is now placed at 300,000,000 to 
3b5,000,000 bushels as compared with actual net imports of 344,000,000 
bushels in 1920-31 and 301,000,000 bushels imported in 1929-30. Monthly 
average net imports to the end of February were 25,900,000 bushels for 
1931-32 compared to 27,200,000 bushels the monthly averace for tne same 
period durin^ the previous season. Monthly average net imports from March 
1 to June 30 tnis year are expected to reach 31,500,000 bushels as ae;ainst 
an avers:se of 31,700,000 bushels durin^^ the saiTie period of 1931. 



Table 12.- Continental European stocks of wheat, the middle of 
February and March, 1951 and 1952 



Location ; 


: 1 


331 


: 1932 


Middle of 
Feb. 


Middle of 
Mar. 


Middle of 
Feb. 


: Middle of 
Mar. 


Antwerp (visible) 

Berlin (vvheat and 
flour) 

Hair.burg (rough 

estimate) 

Bremen and Brake . . . 

G e r man f arm s t o ck s . . 

German "Second Hand" 


1,000 

bushel s 


1,000 
: bushels 


1,000 

bushels 


1,000 

bushels 


6,250 

a/ 1 , 410 : 

460 
4 : 
c/ 50,100 : 


480 
4 , 040 

b/ 1 , 530 

460 
6 

35,000 


1,650 : 
1,800 

aj 1,290 

830 
12 : 
cJ 54,400 


870 
1,430 

730 
8 

d/' 40 , 500 
f/27,100 



a/ End of February, 
b/ End of March. 
cj Middle of January, 
d/ Middle of February. 

e/ In Warehouses and flour mills (wheat and flour); these totals are said to 
include 90 per cent of the second hand stocks actually existing, and therefore 
m-jst contain most of the Berlin, Hainburg and Bremcn-Bralce data, 
f/ March 1. 



Section on Cr op Conditions 

Conditions in the western continental European co^untries continue general- 
ly favorable although continued lack of inoisture and fluctuating temperatures 
have brought complaints of some crop daniage. So far, however, damage appears 
to be more or less local and confined largely to the higher lands. In the 
eastern countries, hov/ever, including Austria, Czechoslovalcia and Poland, 
reports continue unfavorable and further indications of winter damage have 
been received. Recent snows and rains have relieved the drought conditions 
in Italy, but conditions in Spain are apparently not satisfactory. 



WH-72 



- 22 



Tiie winter darnage is expected to reduce next year's rye crop as 
practically all of the rye is winter sown. In view of tl.is year's rye 
shortage, the possibility of another short crop is causing officials con- 
siderable anxiety. 

The winter has been unusually dry over a large part of the Continent. 
Past experience has shown, however, that in G-errnany and France, at least 
dry winters are not detrimental to crop yields. Rainfall is essential, 
however, when the crops resume i^-rowth this spring. 

Germany 

Lurin^i the greater -cart of the winter, v/eather conditions were regarded 
as favorable to auturan-sov/n crops, but the past several weeks, with fluctuat- 
ing temperatures and insufficient snow-ccver, have given rise to some 
apprehension. Although the official crop condition report for Prussia, as 
of March 1, showed little change from the previous month, recent unofficial 
reports contain numerous comments regarding winter dai'oage. For several weeks 
the weather nas been generally dry with above normal temperatures prevailing 
during the day. At night, however, temperatures have freq;aently fallen to 
dangerous levels, especially when the lack of snow is considered. 

Precipitation continues much below normal. vVnile this should not have 
any marked effect upon the plants, it will be necessary to -have at least 
norm.al rainfall as soon as the plajits res-ome growth. Field work has been 
retarded by tne cold dry weather. 

Sales of potash- and nitrogen improved" during Februai^^ and were even 
reported to be larger than during the sane time last year'j but sales of lime 
continue at the low levels of the previous months. Secent heavy sales of 
fertilizers are expected to alleviate, to some extent at least, the ill effects 
which were expected on the basis of eaxlier reports. 



Austria. 



Tlie official Austrian crop report as of the end of February shows clear- 
ly the unfavorable effects of low temperatures and insufficient snow cover. 
All autumn-sown- crops deteriorated as comparGd with the iprevious montn. V/inter 
wheat has apparently suffered the most damage and complete withering of the 
plants Was reported from some sections. Rye plantings arc showing a very 
thin stand. Condition figures still indicate all crops to be slightly above 
average, but considerably below conditions prevailing at the same time a year 
ago, and it now appears that winter damage will .).o rather extensive. Cold 
winds have blown a.way the soil covering and exposed the plant roots in som.e 
cases, and the lack of moisture is also considered to be detrimental iznless 
soon relieved. 

Reports during the first half of Ivlarch continue to emphasize tne above- 
mentioned conditions, and dajnage to late-sown fields is particularly stressed. 
While heavy snowfalls were experienced in so^r^e parts of tne cc-jaitr^;^ , the^ 
chief grain-producing regions arc still devoid of snow cover. Field work rias 
been delayed and the late thawing of the soil ma^' cause serious delay in sowing. 



WH-72 



- 23 - 



C z e cho s 1 0 valci a 

Reports on Czechoslovakia have been rather meager, but it appe-ars that 
the crops have suffered from the cold weather arid lack of snov/ cover, as 
have the crops in the neighborirg countries of Poland, Hungary and Austria, 
in all of which considerable winter damage has been reported. 

Poland 

The unfavorable condition of Polish winter grains, which v/as reported 
last month, hr.s been further confirmed by, recent reports which indicate that 
as a result of severe frosts and insufficient snow cover severe damage has 
occurred. It is now rumoured that, even v/ith feivorable weather from novY on, 
the outturn of this year's winter crops would be below tha,t of a year ago, 
and there is considerable a^ixiety with regard to the outcome of the lye crop. 

Eelgi'cun : ■ 

Winter crops in Belgium have apparently come through in good condition 
and sov/ings of spring oats have already been reported. 

F ranee . ' . 

As in the case of Germany, recent reports from France have for the first 
time this winter hinted at the mfavorable effects of the cold dry weather. 
Most of these complaints nave been more or less local and the situation for 
the CQ-ontry as a v'hole may still be regarded as satisf a^ctory . v/iieat nas 
suffered the least of all and most of the replanting is expected to occur in 
oats. The vigorous condition of the plants prior to the recent period of 
freezing and thawing will tend to minim.ize the prospective damage. The lack of 
moisture is causin;^ some anxiety .for crops on light soils. 

Spring work, which was well adv?jiced at the beginning of March, experienc- 
ed some dels^' do.ring the first part of the month, due to tne cold, dry weather. 
The latest reports, however, indica-te that conditions have again become more 
favorable to field work. 

I taly 

Crop conditions in Italy at the beginning of March were reported favor- 
able, but drought was causing some anxiety, particula.rly in the northern part 
of the co-ontry. Despite the protecting snow cover, some frost d.ai"aage occurred 
during the first ten days of March, oarticularly on late sovm fields. During 
this time a,buiiaaJit snowfalls in northern Italy cand rains in the South relieved 
the anxiety regarding drcaght. The central part, however, is still in need 
of further rains. 

Spring sowing is beginning- and cii increase in the corn and spring wheat 
•a.creage is expected to talce' place as a. result of the reduction in the sugar- 
beet, hemp aaid flojc seed acreage. 



WH-72 



- 24- 



Russian wheat section 
ProcurinBS 

Total procurings of grain from the beginning of the season to I/iarch 1 
ajTiounted to 91.2 per cent oi the amount planned. The program was baclc'/ard 
in Ukraine, Kasal^stan, and the Ural region. It is very improbable that the 
plan will be fully -executed, as the cajnpaign can now be regarded as practical- 
ly finished. 

Uo figures are available on the amount of grain actually procured this 
year, but it was recently stated that total procurings to March 1 were 5.3 
per cent above those at the same time last year, at which time, however, 
definite fig-ures were also lacking. Recent unofficial reports from other 
sources have indicated that actual procurings are little, if sny, greater 
than last year. In view of the slowness of procurings this year we are inclined 
to doubt that total quantities procured are much, if aaiy, above a year ago, 
despite the larger plan. 

Sowing campaig n • ■ 

Preparations for the spring sowing campaign continue unfavorable. _ ¥hile 
the figures show an increase over those of a month ago, it is evident that^ 
the present rate will not permit the preparatory work to be completed^in time 
for sowing. Snould this materialize, seeding will be late, aaad tnis m turn 
might well lead to reduced yields. 

The assem.bling of seed, which is the most important phase of the pre- 
parations for spring sowing, is particularly unfavorable. The q.uajitity of 
seed actually assembled is below that assembled a year ago, and considerably 
below Government "plans. According to plans, those regions which will oe tne 
first to sow were to have finished the assembly of their seeds by ivlarcn 10. 
With the exception of Crimea all the other regions (Ukraine, Horth Caucasus, 
Lower Volga and Middle Asia) were considerably behind plans on March 10- -l-^^ 
these regions the assembly of seed was from 55 to 80 per cent complete. Of 
those regions which sow later, Kasakstan and the Urals report tne lowest 
percentage of seed already assembled, 18.6 and 24.7 per cent respectively, as 
compared with 47.2 and 71.1 per cent the corresponding figures for last^yeo,r. 
This is undoubtedly a reflection of the serious effects of the drought m 
these regions last year. 

Recent reports indicate that in order to stimulate the local organiza- 
tions in charge of the assembly of seed funds, the Government has talcen 
recourse to drastic measures. These include the withholding of tne seed loan 
from those localities or farms which are believed to have failed to mobilize ^ 
their full seed resources. Such a measure was provided for by t.-.e Government 
at the time the granting of the seed loon was announced. 



Recent reports also indicate that some regions are making a dovvnward 
revision in the planned acreage, as well cs in the quwitity of seed to De 
used per hectare. Such action is no doubt the result of the short crops 
harvested in 1931. The press has also been criticizing the tendency to replace 
wheat by other less valuable crops, a tendency which is aue to tne scarcity 



I 



WH-72 



- 25 - 



of whoo.t in mr.ny sections. 

Sowin^'^ has already cohiinenced in Middle Asia, Trans- Caucasus and the 
Maikop re;^lon of North Caucasus, but has been del-ayed by unfavorable weather 
in Crimea. Severe floods were reported in the Kuban district, an importroiit 
wheat re.^ion of Horth Caucasus a,round the middle of March, due to the rapid 
raeltintV of snow and ab-andant rains in the mountains. Sowing was postponed 
and thousands of acres of fall-sown crops were endangered. 

G-rain shipment s 

Shipir.ents of Russian grain from the south- Russian ports durin- the 
four weeks ended March 16 were very moderate and even below those of the 
preceding; four weeks. The decline was due to the fallln^-off of the wheat, 
barley and corn shipments, while rye and oats increased considerably as com- 
pared with the previous four week period, but still remained on a relatively 
low level. TotaJ. shipments since the bef-;innint2; of the season to March 10 
(through south- Russian ports) amounted to 3,645,600 short tons as compared 
with 4,123,000 snort tons shipped out durin.j the corresponding period last 
year. Tlie distribution of the crops was as follows: 

July 1, 1930 to July 1, 1931 to 

March 18. 1931 March 16, 1932 

1,000 bushels 1,000 bu shels 



Wheat c-5,682 70,863 

Rye ' 9,472 20,743 

Barley 44,974 30,166 

Oats 9,624 3,520 

Corn 1,929 5,665 



Market Section 

G £ rmany 

Trading on German domestic wheat markets during recent weeks has been 
slow and prices have remained quite steac^^y, except for a small rise about the 
middle of March. This ma^' be attributed in part to the tuicertainty regarding 
the results of the presidential election, as well as to doubt regarding the 
Government's regulations for v/heat imports. The. recently published sta,tistics 
on second-hand grain stocks have further promoted a cautious attitude on the 
part of buyers, as the stocks were somewhat larger than was anticipated. The 
market was weak as a result of the approaching Easter holidays and a weakening 
of the flour trade. 

German trade in foreign wheat c^ontinues very q.uiet, due largely to the 
fact that the Government has not yet announced its intentions regarding a 
forei^gn wheat Q.uota. 



WH-72 



- 26 - 



the German rye market continues steady under the influence of the price 
manipulating policy of the Government. I>aring the past few days the Deutsche 
Getreide Kandelsgesellschaft has purchased 1,772,000 bushels of South American 
and Russian rye, which brings its purchases for the present season up to 
about 20,000,000 bushels. 

Prices for domestic wheat and rye in Germany are shown in the followin.- 

table: 



Table 13.- Germany: Price per bushel of domestic wheat and rye at 
specified markets, February 3 - March 30, 1932 





Date 


Wheat 


Eye 






Breslau a/ 


Berlin b/ ' 


Berlin c/ 






Hajnburj;^ 






Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


1932 












17 eb. 


3 


156 


156 


156 


119 




10 


157 


158 


157 


: 117 




17 


160 


164 


151 


; 120 




24 


164 


165 ! 


159 


117 


Mar. 


2 


154 


165 


159 


117 




9 


164 


165 


159 : 


117 




16 


164 


165 1 


153 


119 




23 


163 


162 


; 161 : 


118 




30 


: 164 : 


166 


166 : 


120 



a/ Wheat of avera.ge quality of 57.9 pounds per Winchester bushel, 
b/ "I.Iarkischer" wheat 58.5 - 59.0 pounds per Winchester bushel, 
c/ "Markischer" rye of 55.9 - 56.7 pounds per Vifinchester bushel. 



ITet imports of wheat auid wheat flour into Gemany during February this 
year amounted to 2,414,000 bushels as compared v;ith net imports of 1,609,000 
bushels in January and 1,644,000 bushtls in February last year. 

Estimates of grain stocks in mills and warehouses were recently p-ablished 
for the first time by the Reich Statistical Office. These figures were 
collected as of the end of February. They do not include grain in transit, 
but do include grain in barges and cars which are alongside the mills or 
warehouses. It is expected that these figures will appear monthly from now on. 
Flour stocks in bakers hrjids are also omitted from the estimates. Tne Government 
apparently hoped to obtain a complete census, but the statistics as published 
for Februa.ry 1, included only a.bout 90 per cent of the storage facilities. 
It sho-old be noted that there is some duplication between the German farm 
stocks and the newly published second-hand stocks. The farm stocks include 
all grain owned by the farmer, whether on his farm or in storage elsewhere. 
Apparently no distinction is made as to o'Amership of second-hand stocks, and, 
therefore, they include a certain amount of lombarded grain and other grain 
which may be held for farmers. The amount of the duplication is unloiown, 
but the German Agric-ol tural Co^oiicil indicates that the quantity of lombarded 
grain is rather small. Figures of German second-hand stocks as of the end 
of February are as follows. 



WH-72 



- 27 - 



To.ble 14.- Germany: S .:cond hand stocks of ~^ralr\ as of the end of 

Februrry, 1932 



I tem 



Wheat . 
Rye 

Oat .., 

Barley 



Wheat flour 
Hye flour . , 



Domes tic 


Duty 


: Duty 


; To tal 




pcaid 


: unpai d 




1,000 


1,0 jO 


: 1,0.30 


: 1,000 


bushel s 


bushels 


: bud' els 


bushel s 


16,057 


: 2,645 


1,176 


19,878 


7 , 354 : 


984 : 


5,276 ; 


14,094 


8,887 : 


. 35 ; 


48 : 


8,970 


5,S7S : 


1,010 


1,332 : 


8,221 


Barrels ; 


Barrels 


Barrels 


Barrels 


1 , 575 


90 


2 : 


1 , 567 


6o4 


18 : 


1 


683 



There has been considera.ble controversy in both private and official 
sources regarding Germany's grain req.uirements for the remainder of the season. 
Tnis nas bej.i promoted lar.^cly by the publication of the second-hcaid stoclcs 
fig^arcs '.7hich are said to be larger than was generally expected. Some 
authorities v'ould consider the present supi^ly sirfficient for five and one-half 
months, out this would moan a tremendous reduction in consumption, as com- 
pared with pi-evious j'-ears. Conservative sources now estimate that an 
additional 7,000,000 bushels of wheat mast be imported before the new crop 
is available. liost of tnese estimates, however, overlook the necesiuty of 
maintaining at least one month's carry-over at the end of the season. The 
Berlin office of the Bureau believes requirements up to July 1 will necessitate 
the importation of at least 7,000,000 bushels with further imports ncccssrjry 
during July. 

The r^'e situr.tion appears even less favorable. Total stocks of rye 
and rye flour in second hands are estim-^tcd at about 17,700,000 bushels. 
In addition, the Deutsche Getreide Hondelsgesellschejt now owns about 
12,000,000 bushels not yet imported. Farm stocks on March 1, after allowing 
for a normal decrease from the middle of February on, were about 53,700,000 
bushels. The total qua:itity of rye available, tnorefore, on March 1 is 
estimated at about 63,000,000 bushels. This quantity is scarcely sufficient 
for hum?.n consumption between now £uid A\i; ust 1. As con'cid.- rabl e quc'ntitics 
of rye arc bcinv^ fed this year, it seems likely tra.t further imjorts of 
rye mst be made. 

France 

French domestic wheat markets were quite firm during the period under 
review and prices rose steadily. The milling quota for foreig-n wheat was 
increased to 30 per cent th*.- middle of March to 35 per cent on i/larch 2o, 
40 per Cv^nt on i.iarch 27 ai'.d -to 45 per cent on April 1. It should be noted 
that at no time last year did the milling quota for forc;igTi wheat c:-:ceed 
30 per cent. 



WH-72 



- 28 - 



I taly 

Itrlian v/neat markets have not been especially "".ctive during recent 
weeks. Tiie previqias steady rise in domestic prices ended early in liojrch, 
and there has since been a slight decline, due partly to the announcement 
of further changes in the milling percentage for foreign wheat. After April 
26 mills producing flour from soft wheat mry use 60 per cent foreign vviie.-^t 
in northern and central Italy, with the exception of the province of Latiujn. 
Tor Latium and southern Italy, including the islands, the percentage of 
foreii-^Ti soft wheat has been fized at 85 per cent. The percentage for durum 
v/heats is changed to 90 per cent' for northern Italy and 85 per cent for 
southern. In spite of the changes in the miilling quota, business in 
foreign wheats has continiied rather slow. 

Eelgiiom and Hollan d ' 

rnjLtch wheat mai'kets have generally been less active during March than 
in the ]preceding m.onth. The undertone of the market, however, has continued 
steady and a vaoderate business was carried on in Plates and Australians, 
with some hard winters and Manitobas also being handled. 

Business on the Belgian wheat markets was only moderate, but prices 
were steady. Buyers have lately appeared reluctant to commit themselves. 

Czechosloval'^ia 

Czechosloval-cian wheat markets displayed considerable firmness during 
the period under review and the rise in prices which occurred at the beginning 
of March has been maintained. The firmness of the domestic markets may be 
partially attributed to a sharp reduction in the wheat import contingent. 
Under pressure from agricultural interests, the contingent was set at 
919,000 bushels for February and 1,653,000 bushels for March. In addition 
to this a contingent of 67,000 barrels of wheat flour for the two months 
together was established. For the March v;heat contingent one car. of domestic 
wheat must be purchased for each two cars of foreign wheat imported. 

Austria 

Austrian wheat markets have shown a firm tendency during most of March. 
Lomestic v'heat prices have risen steadily and millers have recently shov/n 
particular interest in the higher grade wheats. Business in foreign wheat 
continues very limited due to the difficulties in obtaining adequate allot- 
ments of foreign exchange. 

Rye supplies are becoming scarce, and this is reflected in higher prices 
and a limited turnover, 

Poland 

An improvement in activity on the Polish grain m.arKets during March 
Was accompanied by slowly rising domestic prices. 



WH-72 



- 29 - 



/ 

Jam stocks of a'i'ain in Poland are considerably lower than a year a^o, 
accordint,- to fieures recently published by the Central Union of Afc;ricultural 
Associations. 

Thp Chinese Vfheat and Flour Markets 



The Shanghai flour market has recentl.y shown some improvement. Prices 
have advanced and both Yangtze Valley and north China merchants have been 
buying quite freely, according to a cabled report from Agricultural 
Commissioner Pawson at Shanghai. There has been little interest in foreign 
wh'='at since the latter part of January but the renewed activit;^^ in the 
flour market and the unfavorable outlook for the native crop are tending 
to renew interest, 

Plour mills at Shanghai have continued to operate at near normal out- 
put for some time and stocks of foreign v/heat are considered sufficient for 
requirements durine, the next two and a half months. Mills at Tsinan and 
Tsingtao had practically ceased operating until recently v^hen the receipt 
of wheat from^ Australia enabled themi to resume mailing on a small scale, 

Turing March about 60,000 tons of wheat arrived at Shanghai from 
Australia, 30,000 tons from Canada and 7,500 tons from Argentina. Abovit 
150,000 tons are still due to arrive from Australia and about ?0,000 tons from 
Canada. I^o interest is being shown in American wheat at present prices. 

Prices c.i.f. Shanghai on April 12 were: Australian in bags for April, 
May and J-jjie delivery 58 cents per bushel, Canadian in bulk 60 cents per 
bushel arid v^estern white and w^^stern red 64 cents per bushel. 

The present outlook is for a smaller wheat crop in north China this 
year owin*^ to the reduction in acreage and the dry winter weather. Rain- 
fall has also been short in central China and favorable weather to harvest 
tim.e is needed to insure an average crop. 

A coiimunication dated ilarch 16 to Mr. Pawson from Consul Kason at 
Harbin quoted a Russian newspap-^r to the effect that Exportehleb, a Soviet 
organization, had purchased 700,000 Russian ooods of wheat and flour (about 
421,000 bushels if all v/heat) at Harbin for shipment to the Soviet Union. 
The alleged transaction was difficult to confirm by the Consulate but 
reports p<^-rsist that the Soviets are m.aking large purchases in Harbin. 



Danulse Basin VAie a^_S_U3 1 i 0£ Dij^^ 

The outstanding features of tl.e -:7heat situation in the Danuhe Basin 
from the middle of Fel)ruar- to the middle of liirch were: 

(1) The estimated area of winter v;heat sovm in thu Banuhe Basin 
totals ahout 17,675,000 acres. Condition of the crops in Sunania and 
Yip-'oslavia continue satisfactory, hut in Ilunfi-ary and Bulgaria 
conditions are poorer. The H^mgarian crop is reported to have 
suffered q^oite materially from insufficient snow covering ind neavy 
freezes during the past month. The same conditions prevailed in 
Bulgaria, hut the dainage was less entensive. 

(2) There ma-r he a ftirthcr increase in the total exports from the 
Danuhe Basil, for the year July 1, 1931 to June 30, 1932. Total pro- 
hahle exTDorts are now forecast at 80,390,000 hushels, as compared 
vrith the%revlou3 estimate of 73,421,000 hushels. The increase is 
due to higher -orohahle exports from Btilgari which results irom 
increased export prices, and prohahle reduction in home consumption 

, as a result of the Government's high monopoly price for internal saleo. 

(3) Deliveries to markets have declined as a result of unfavorable 
weather that has resu.lted in reduced activity in hoth river and land 
traffic. 

(4) Prices im-oroved somewhat during late Fehruary and early ir--rch 
hecause of higher price tendencies on world markets, relatively 
favorahle outlook for spring exports, curtailed market deliveries, and 
depleted stocks in the c-se of Himgary and .Rumania. 

(5) -Yugoslavian and Hungarian wheat that has heen stored in 
• Austria and Czechoslovakia was marketed in important quantities. 

(G) A favorahle outlook is developing for marketing wheat in central 
and southern Europe during the spring months. Stocks in these sections 
of Europe have hecn depleted. The present unfavorable imancia-. ^ 
•conditions in these countries, which necessitates the importation o. 
goods f rom coujitries in which the importing co-antrios can^pay lOi tne 
-oods in commodities sent to the exporting coujitry will give the_J3anube 
Basin a decided advantage over countries that do not make large impor oS 
of industrial products from central and southern Europe. 

(7) Continued efforts for promoting" exports, have resulted in the 
conclusion of additional clearing agreements between national ban.cs 
and a renewed effort to develop international wheat pool^ among the 
countries of the Danube Basin, and in the conclusion oi an export 
agreement" betv;oen Himg:.ry and Italy. 

y ' Based Vep^ft ^f Assist^^t •::;Ei^\£lt^ J." B^^lr^rf^ Gibbs , 

Belgrade, Yugoslavia, ii^rch 21, 1S32. 



\YIi-72 



-31- 



Danubo Basin Markets and Pricos 

l'Iarl:ats 

Activity on Danute Basin markets during the past inontli has been curtailed 
as a resvJt of shipping dif a'icalties caused "by sever freezes, small home con- 
suiiv^tion due to decreased du_ in-o power, and in the case of Hiijigary and Runania 
to depleted stocks. There was some improvement, however, at the middle of 
March v;hen navigation r/as reopened and demands for export wheat increased. 

In Bulgaria, the Goven"urient Bureau is the only agency that can sell wheat. 
Sales to mills for hone cons^''JTotion are made directly "by the Bureau, whereas 
wheat for export is sold "by the Bureau to exporters with the underst anding that 
they must export the wheat v/ithin twent^'^-one da^^s after the date of purchise. 
Sales "by the Bureau for the past months have "been curtailed as a result of ship- 
ping difficulties caiised h;- freei^es, and reduced consumption due to decreased 
biiying pov/er, and the G-overnir.ent* s high monox>oly price of 78 cents per oushel. 

In Hungary provincial laills have been active biiyers for wheat of standard 
grades, whereas high grade Tisza wheat was much in derrand "by exporters and 
Biidapest iiiills. Eo-.;ever, offers for all qualities have oeen small, because 
farmers expect to sell their existing stocks at better prices during April, Hay 
and June, It nov; appears that central and southern European countries have 
practically exhausted their local supply. 

Budapest mills do not purchase standard grades of v;heat in volume, 
because they are primarily'- engaged in grinding wheat for the G-ovcrniient to be 
tised in the GoverniTient Relief Action. 

Host of the v/heat piirchased by Hungari ui :.iills during the past month was 
o"btained from the "future", and represents Government stocks from the 1930 crop. 
The flour prodv,ced from 'this wheat cannot be readily sold 'h'j mills, as a large 
part of the consumption is supplied by flour furnishoi through Government 
Relief action, liills expect to market flour produced from the wheat they have 
purchased from the "Futura" after JIarch 15, -when the Relief Action v.dll end. 
Provincial mills, in contrast to Budapest mills, have been active buyers and 
i mport^.nt quantities of \7heat have been shipped from Budapest to provincial 
stations. Such shipments :,re very unusual in Himga-ry. 

In R-umania continued cold weather and snow storms Iiave resvlted in the 
interruption of navigation and of land traffic, deliveries have been small and 
All v/heat arriving on markets has been readily bought by mills. Prices liave 
been relatively high, and p-uj?chases for export have been practically confined 
to q-aantities that could be sold in Czechoslovakia. 

In Y-ugoslavia, the Privileged Export Company has continued to operate 
under the plan that has been in force luring the past months. Actual purchases 
by the Company d-oring the past month have been curtailed as a resiilt of 
decreased exports and the Compajiy's inability to maintain a laonopoly control 
over internal sales. 



fH-72 



-32- 



Frices 

Firmer tendency on continental ir^rkets, the admitting of larger 
quantities of foreign wheat ty Ei:iropean importing countries, and its result- 
ing influence on demand for Danube wheat, combined with small stocks and 
curtailed deliveries in the case of Hungary and Rumania have resulted in 
higher prices on all Danube markets. 

In Bulgaria the Government Bureau continued to purchase wheat from 
farmers at 67 cents per bushel, a/ Of this price, 70 per cent is paid in cash, 
and 30 per c^nt in taxation bonds.. The G-overnment Bureau sells wheat to mills 
for home consumption under monopoly control at 78 cents per bushel, a/ 
Prices for cales by the G-overnment Bureau to exporters declined iinmediately 
after the middle of February but improved on February 19 and have increased 
steadily since that date. 

In Hungary prices began to increase on February 17, and continued to 
rise with insignificant fluctuations until the middle of March. 

The' prices paid for high grade small grain Tisza VYheat with high gluten 
content attained as much as 72 to 73 cents per bushel, b/ 

Rumanian prices also increased after February 16, and after having 
reached a maximium of 51 cents c/ at Braila on March 1, were maintained at the 
same level until the middle of March. 

In Yugoslavia the monopoly price for purchases from farmers by the 
Privileged Export Company of 84 cents per bushel for first grade Tisza wheat 
has been maintained. Vfheat of the sa)Tie quality is sold to mills for internal 
consumption a.t $1.20 per bushel. 



a/ Price for 59 pounds per bushel wheat, with no rye and foreign matter. 

Standard adjustments are made for wheat of different quality, 
b/ Plus 48 cents grain ticket. 

c/ Price for 61 pounds per bushel, 2 per cent foreign matter. 



WH-72 -33- 

Table 15.- Price per bushel for wheat of comparable ^.ra-des at Budapest 
and Novi-Sad, monthly December 1931 and January 1932, weekly 
February 6 - March 12, 1932 a/ 



Period : Budapest, H-ungary : Novi Sad, Yugoslavia 
b/ : c/ 

: Cents : Cents 

1951 : : 

I'ec : 65 : 84 

1932 : : 

Jan. : 64 : 84 

Week end'^.d : : 

Feb, 6 : 64 : 84 

13 : 62 : 84 

20 : 63 : 84 

27 : 65 : 84 

Mar. 5 : 66 : 84 

-2 : 68 : 84 



Budapest prices December 1931 from "Pester Lloyd", a Budapest economic 
journal; from January 1, 1932 from official daily bulletins of the Budapest 
Grain Exchange. Hovl Sad prices from "Trgovinski Glasnik" , a Belgrade 
corrimerclal journal. 

a/ Simple averages of daily prices for comparable grades in local currency 
and converted to United States dollars by using exchange rates on the Zurich 
Exchange. <t'J-0 tc tions of Hungarian Pengo on the Zurich Exchange ceased on 
November 21. Prom Novemiber 21, the average November gold pengo exchange rate 
has been used for converting Budapest prices into dollars. Budapest wheat 
prices have been quoted in gold pengo since August 1. 

b/ Lower Tisza, 61.4 - 62.2 pounds per bushel, foreign m.atter not exceeding 
1 per cent. In. addition to the above market price the purchaser has to pay 
48 cents per bushel, representing the value of the grain ticket,' from which 
the farmer receives 29 cents. Por wheat that is exported the 43 cents grain 
ticket expense is refunded by the Government. 

c/ From July 6 forward Governmient monopoly purchase price; Tisza 52.2 pounds 
per bushel, 1 per cent foreign matter. One-half of the price is paid in 
cash, one-fourth in Government bonds payable one month after the purchase 'is 
made and one-fourth in bonis payable three m.onths after the date of purchase. 

■ii inter wheat seeding fo r the 1932 crop 

The acreage of winter wheat seeded in the fall of 1951 is estimated 
at 17,675,000 acres, as com.pared with 20,151,000 acres, the revised estimated 
acreage seeded in the fall of 1930, and the 5-year average fall seeding of 
18,043,000 acres. 

Most of the reduction in this year's acreage is due to a smaller acreage 
for F-iajnomia, which is largely the result of adverse weather at seeding time. 

The condition of winter wheat is still satisfactory, except in the case 
of Hungary, where heavy freezes have occurred. 



WH-72 ■ -34- 

The condition of winter whep.t in Bult^aria was still reported as satis- 
factory on February 21, however, damad'eG' from heavy freezes were reported in 
restricted areas, and it was feared that such daiae^eCes would becovae extensive 
if cold weather continued. ' ■ . 



According to an official Hungarian crop report : issued by the Hun^iarian 
Ministry of 1^,'ricul bure on- March 13, winter wheat, especially late sown winter 
wheat, was beint, dama&ed as a result of prolouejed dry, cold weather, and 
inadequate snow covering. The damage was general, and in many districts especial- 
ly in Trensdanubia and in the northeastern co-'untries, the plants have already 
turned yellow. The exact extent of the damage cannot as yet be estimated.. 

Reports received from Rumania on February 25 indicated that . the condition 
of the aaiT:iaiiian crop remains good. The plants made a satisfactory growth in the 
fall and have had ample snow covering throughout the entire winter. 

The condition of the Yugoslavian crop remains good. The plants tvere well 
protected by snow until the middle of I-'arch, and the weather since that date has 
been relatively mild. 

Table 16.- Wheat: Estimated acreage planted in "the fall of 1931 in 
specified Danube Basin countries, with com.parisons 







: Fall seedin 


- 1930 






: Average 


Panube Basin 


•.Official esti^ 




Country 


winter v/heat 


Office estimates mates of 


: Fall seeding 




: acreage 


revised as of 


: Ministries of 


: 1931 




1925-1929 


Feb. 20, 1932 


: Agriculture 






: 1,000 acres 


1,000 acres 


: 1,000 acres 


1,000 acres 


Bulgaria 


2,624 


2,819 


: 2,937 


2,814 


Hungary 


, 3,823 


4,055 


4,058 


3,872 


Rumania 


7,055 


7,863 


7 , 865 


5,967 


Yugoslavia 


a/ 4 , 542 


5,414 


:b/ 5,263 


5,001 


Tanube Basin : 


18,044 


20,151 


: . 20,121 : 


17,674 



Compiled as follows: 1931 plantings estimated by Panube Basin Office. Fall 
seedings in 1930, estimates by Danube Basin Office revised as of February 1, 
1932. Official estimates: Bulgaria: from "Bulletin Mensuel de Stati stiq.ue" , 
published by the Bulgarian Central Bureau of Statistics, issue of January 1932; 
Hungary: "Magyar Statsztikai Szemle" , official monthly publication of the 
Hungarian Bureau of Statistics, issue of December 1931. Rumar.ia: from 
"Statistica Agricola Sviprafetele Insainantate" , official statistical publication 
of the Ruraanian Ministry of Agriculture, issue of 1931. Yugoslavia: from data 
published by the Statistical Division of the Yugoslavian Ministry of Agriciilturc, 
in "Politiha", Belgrade journal, issue of November 21, 1931. Five year averages, 
official figures published by Ministries of Agriculture or Directions of 
Statistics. 

a/ Planted winter wheat acreage in Yr.goslavia in 1925: estim.ated by increasing the 
harvesting acreage by 2.34 per cent which was the percentage of abandonment 
for all wheat in 1925. The planted winter wheat acreage for 1929 was estimated 
from the planted acreage of all wheat by deducting 185,000 acres as the probable 
spring wheat area. • 

b/ Obtained by deducting an estim^ated acreage for spring v/heat of 131,000 acres 
from the officially reported total planted wheat acreage of 5,394,000 acres. 



TO- 7 2 



-35- 



Developments in Governrnent A_id 



Gover.nment aid to v/lieat {stovJcvg continues to be a feature in the Danube 
Basin v;heat situation. Dif f icvilties in connection v/ith price supporting methods 
continue, clearing agreements betaeejji National Banks to facilitate exports in 
spite of financial difficulties are ■fcccoming more general, ne^;7 commercial 
treaties are being made, and an increasing amount of attention is being paid 
to the development of an internation.-);';. '.vhoat pool. 

T.:e proposals of the Pan Europe conference held at Budapest on February' 
12 to 14 have been approved by P.uropean pov/ers, and at present, negotations for 
the develop;p.ent of the proposals of this co:iference are in progress between 
important Eviropean countries. The conference stressed the fact that the most 
iirgent need v/as the immediate conclusion of mutual preferential tre-.ties bet.^eon 
Austria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Rmiania, and Yugoslavia. 'The conclusion 
of these preferential treaties would enable the agricultural covmtrios included 
in the above group to market a large part of thoir agricultural surpluses under 
special custom privileges in the industrial covjitrics included in the group. The 
industrial countries would enjoy the same privileges for the products that they 
have for o:cport to the agricultural countries. The qiiantity of both agricultural 
and industrial products that could be exported from one country into another 
under the preferential treaties will be established by means of import qiiotas. 

The creation of a wheat marketing pool to incliade Hungary, Rumania, and 
Yugoslavia is again being considered. On liarch 11, the Hungarian Ilinister of 
Agricxilture made an annoujic cmont to newspapers that a conference will bo hold 
at Belgrade at the end of Ilarch in which agriculUiral exports from the above 
mentioned countries would discuss the possibility of marketing the 1952 crop 
for these countries in a coi.'uuon pool. a/ 




In Bulgaria the Governnont Grain piorch.ising Bureau has continued operating 
vjidor the provisions of the L.-.W a October 12, 1931 which established Government 
monopoly control of the country's grain trade. Wlieat is purchased from farmers 
by'' the Bureau at 67 cents per bushel f.o.b. Varna or Bourgas(a farm price of 
about 62 cents per bushel), and is resold to mills s.t 73 cents per bushel. The 
profit from such sales is used to cover losses on v/heat sold for export. 

Tlie Bureau is at present having difficulties in maintaining an effective 
monopoly control over sales to mills, and it is feared that other means will 
have to be employed in order to secure fimds to cover export losses. 

In Hungary the Governrnent 's failure to pay export premivjns on wheat that 
v/as exported ..between July 1 to October 18, 1931 is still causing considera')le 
concjrn among exporters. Ki'j^^^'arian exporters ••.-•ere required to increase the price 
paid to farmers to the extent of the 17 cents per bushel export premium, and 
it is believed by Govcrnjiient officials that this rule was not alw.ays adhered to. 
Therefore, the Government has delayed the p -.yment of premiums until the extent 

£/ Yugo Slav liewspap er s reproduced the above statement, and" ot the same time 
expressed their belief that suc>. a pool would Ivxvo ample chances for success 
in securing good prices for Danube v/hoat, because most of the European importing 
countries arc involved in financial difficulties that necessitate restrictions 
in imports against paj/ment in foreign currency. Therefore, Ihey will not be 
in a position to import Transatlantic v/hcat and will have to buy in Danube 
countries where they co.n export other products in exchange for -./heat. 




V/H-72 "36- 



of sucli practices can "be definitely determined. It has been reported that the 
Government ^vill only pay the part of the export preraiwa that has actually heen 
delivered to the farmer. 

A fi;j>ther reason for the delay in the paynent of export premiiuns has heai I 
that the SDecial fvjid from v/hich the premiwas v/ere to he paid has been 
termoorarily emiDloyed for "Government Relief Action" a/ to ^ the needy. The total 
amount ^sed in the Relief J.ction to date is estimated at ;?4,372,500, and o, this 
amount ahout ;;^1,049,400 was from money that was to he used as export premiura 
payments. 

On March 7 Hunsary concluded an "export agreement" with Italy which 
provides for arran^'ements thet will prohahly stimulate the exchanse of commodities 
hetween the two countries. The seographical draw-hack of the distance oetween 
Hungary and Italy will he remedied hy adjustments in railway rates which can Toe 
readjusted as often as it is'necessary to defeat the competition from exporters 
in nei.-''hhorirK$ countries. These adjustments will he proposed and carried out ^ 
hv a Tariff Council comx^osed of representatives from the two countries. Provisiom 
arp m^de for the immediate transfer of bills of lading covering goods being 
shi-o-oed from one of the coimtries into the otner. This is done for the purpose 
of facilitating rapidity in which credit can he obtained to cover shipments. ^ 
The e-change of cominodities between the two countries will be lurther stimui.teu 
bv meo,PS of "ex-oort credits". It is expected that a Joint Stock Compar^-_ will b. 
created that will maintain residence in both countries. This Company, ^itn 
the aid of other credit institutions, will grant credits to exporters at 
favorable terms. The exact methods of granting sucn credits as well as tne 
limits of the credits wil.l be established at a later date. It has been reported 
that the new agreement will provide for the importatio i of 7,349,000 busheJ s 
of hiuigarian wheat into Italy. 

Negotiations between Hungary and Czechoslovakia still continue, and it is 
now believed that the opposition from the agrarian party in Chechoslovakia 
be overcome, and a comi"aercial treaty favorable for Ihmgarian wheat importers 
will bo established. Czechoslovakian importers have already obtained special 
authorization from the Government to import specific quantities of Hungarian 
wheat, and 45,900 bushels of high grade hard Tisza wheat was iraportea during 
the second v/eek in March. 

r/ ■ "The^G'^el^Tent'YeTiVf AcTf oF"c"o'r^^ "ti ^ s of b r oad 

cereals from t^roducers at the market price of about 57 cents per bushel, plus 
28.6 cents grain ticket coupon. These bread cereals were then grovna for 
resale to the poor at the purchase price less the value of the gram ^^^'^^t 
co-upon of 28.6 cents. This reduces the price of flour to the poorer population 
at the rate of %.55 per barrel, because dealers have to purchase wneat at tne 
mark.et price plus the entire grain ticket of 48 cents per bushel, ine quant it., 
■vheat and rye to he used by the Government in this action was ^fl^^^f non «Lrtf 
fall of 1931 at 44,000 short tons, the estimate was later raised to 110,000 snoriii 
tons, but present information indicates that more th:.n 110,000 short_tons have 
alroad- been used. The Relief Action expired on March 15. In addition to tnis 
ty-oe of relief, the Govorni-aent distributed wheat for seeding in the norxnern 
regions of llvnQO.vy, where freezes and insects ruined the 1931 crop. 



'7K-72 



-37- 



Tlie H-ungarian Fational Bank concluded i?::o additional clearing agreements 
during the first half of I.Iarch. The Hungarian-Italian clearing agreement v/as 
signed on Llarch 5, 1932. The agreement has "been made in accordance \/ith the 
principles followed in establishing cleiring agreements that laave "been 
recently put into force, and v/ill provide for the ci-'xrencj' exchange needed for 
carr.ying out the Hungariaii-Italian "export agreement". The French-Hungarian 
clearing agTeoment "became valid on March 12. This clearing agruement permits 
the Himgarian National Bank to dispose of 15 per cent of its claims v/ith the 
French National Bank, that result from exports from Hungary' into France, hy 
means other than the importation of an equal quantity of merchandise from 
France. Tliis proportion v/ill "be increased to 25 per cent as soon as existing 
debts ov/ed in France "by Hxmgarian importers have been paid. 

Negotiations for a clearing agreement bet\;een Germany and Htingary have 
"been concluded. It is expected that the formalities connected -yitn the 
approving and signing of this agreement will not delay its enforcement. 

The Huiigaria,n -"Ministry of Agriculture is at present considering a project 
which is destined to reduce the 1933 vheat acreage by more than 247,000 acres, 
(about 6 per cent) Hungary has had to import corn during the last two years, 
and it is proposed that about one-half of the reduction in vmeat acreage bo 
planted in corn and the remainder be devoted to the production of beer baric; , 
oats, beans, lentils, potatoes, poppy seeds, alfalfa and clover seed, flax, 
and ncmp. 

In Rumania the ^-inistry of --gricr.l ture is reported to have a bill \ind3r 
preparation, which provides for the aboli sh'iijnt of the '.vheat export premiiu.a. 
The bill also includes measures that v/ill make it possible for the Government 
to collect a larger percent?,ge of the bread tax. The bill v/ill be sent to 
the High Legislative Goimcil in the near future. The amount of impaid export 
premiums due to H\-unanian e.'vporters is still estimated i,t about .'pi, 500, 000. 
Representatives of the Rumanian Liinistry of Go;;i;-nerce, continue their negotiati ons 
for the conclusion of a clearing agreement v/ith Austria and Hungary. Tliere 
are hopes that an agreement will soon be reached v/ith Austria, v/hereas the 
success of negotiations v/ith Hungary is somev/hat doiibtfvil. 

The Yugoslavian Government acting through the Privileged Export Company 
has been unable to maintain a monopoly control over internal v/he -.t sales of 
the country, and a nev/ lav/ has been introduced into Parliament v/hich, if 
passed, v/ill result in important changes in the operations of the Privileged 
E:rport Company. The proposed lav/ provides for the abolishing of monopoly 
control over the internal sale of v/heat, and rye, but specifies that the export 
and import trade of all kinds of v/heat, rye, and v;heat flov-r shall continue 
to be the exclusive right of the State. The price to be p-,id by the 
Privileged iiixport Company for v;he t purchased for export by the Company for 
the account of the State snail be fixed by the liinistry of Commerce and 
Industry in agreement v/ith the Ministries of Finance and Agriculture. A 



part of tlie purchase price, not to oxcecd 50 per cent of the total, may be 
paid in CTOverni'aent bonds of a definite teria. Sucli bonds r.ia,y be used 
im.iediately for tlie payment of taxes. 

The law fiirther provides for a special, tax on raills which shall be in 
proportion with the grinding; capacity of the mill, but in no case shall the 
ta3: G::ceed 14 cents per bushel pf grinding capa-city. Kills are to be required 
to pay a tax for their full grinding capacity regardless of the actual output 
of the Liill. The only way mills can avoid paying the tax is to forfeit their 
right to produce flour. 

If the price to be paid by the Privileged Export Coi.ipan;;^ is established 
at 76 cents per bushel, and the Company' s purchases are confined to pujrchases 
for export, it is believed that internal sales prices to aills v/ill be 
stabilized at S7 cents per bushel. Therefore, cash purchases from farmers 
would be made on this basis as compared with purchases for delivery to the 
Privileged Export Company at 7G cents per bushel paid loartly in bonds that 
can be used imi'aediately for paying taxes or eventually converted to cash. 



WH-72 



-39- 



Table 17.- United Sta.tes: Imports and exports of wheat including flour, 
July 1, 1931 to April 2, 1932 with comparisons 



• 


July 1, 19o0 


Jul.}- 1, 1931 


Item : 


to 


to 


L 


iviai . o o , j_ .^o ± 


A-n-p p 1 Q'Xp 


• 


ljUUU DUSnei.-> 


X 5 u'ju uusneib 


EXPORTS' 








57,721 


73,712 


Flour in terms of wheat . . . : 


42 , 954 


' 32 , 726 




100,675 


166,438 

■ 


IMPORTS: (July - Peb.) : 








13,659 


9,849 


Flour in terms of wheat . . . : 


5 


1 




13,664 


9,850 


NET EXPORTS: : 








44,062 


63,863 


Flour in terv:is of wheat . . . : 


42,949 


32,725 




S7,011 


96,588 



Compiled from official sources. 



Table 18.- V/heat includins^ flour: Exports from principal exporting coun- 
tries, January - March, 1931 and 1;32 



Country 


Jan. : 


Feb. 


Mar. 


1931 


1932 • 


1931 • 


1932 


1931 


1932 a/ 


Uni ted States . . . . : 
Argentina 

Danube 5; Bul^. a/ 


1,000 : 
bushels 

5,731 
11,374 
10 , 946 
461 
17 , 858 
1 , 536 
: 152 


1,000 : 
bushels 

8,137 
10,965 : 
s/l2,276 : 
a/ 0 
: a/2 1,6 48 
: 2,656 
: 2,336 


1,000 : 
bushels 

3,717 
12,163 
17,614 
281 
17,734 
: 5,800 
384 


1,000 

bashels 

7,995 
: 11,417 
a;'l7,612 
•a/ 0 
a^x9,804 
: 1,080 
664 


1,000 
: bushels ; 

4,757 
15,418 
13,411 

328 : 
17,684 
: 6,984 
904 


1,000 
bushels 

• 7 , 992 
8,568 
28,974 
0 

: 21,263 
: 912 
: 1,120 


: 48,053 


: 58,018 


57,6 93 


: 58,572 


. 59,486 


: 68,629 



Compiled from official and trade sources . a/ Preliminary. 



WH-72 



-40-' 



Table 19.- United States: E:cports of wheat and wheat including flour, 

by weeks, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



Eate 


: feeat 


'■/heat flour 


: wheat including: flour 


• 1 93n '^i 


. X z)0 L — O 


J. JOVJ — 0± 


X w o X — o o 


■ -1- J O w — X 


X >J'~J J. — O/O 






i , (JUL) 


AAA 

, UUU 


• . 1 ATiA 


1 , UvJU 


1 AAA 
1 , UUU 




bushel s 


bushel 3 


: b'arrels 


■ barrels 


bushels 


• r> 1 -> L". 1 

Dusneis 


iTn 1 v 4— AnP" "1 


ltd , yo ^ 


13 , 502 




: I'oi 


Q AAQ 
X O , UU J 


1 xb , yoc) 




"1/1 A r;'7 




oo'y 


• OOX 


X O , D 


O J OAO 


Ser)t. 5-Oct. 3 


, D X O 


Q QO'7 


1 f ooo 




> X .^^ , X XD 


XX, >jn J 


Oct. 10-0ct.3l 




xU , OO ( 


D OP. 

c Jo 




J , XO u; 


XO , (JXO 


ITov. 7-NOV.28 


, Oo<d 




QA c; 


OX'i 


P A 
C , Oa. >J 


X X } O C 3 


Dp'^. 5— iTan . 2 




1 fC'ic, ' 




1 C / 


A AP A 


XU , -JX X 


Jpn. 9— Jap. 30 










O , t:X D 


1 A J C 
















Fob. 6 


A '7 . 
O O 1 


± , 1 yo 


"i AA 


X li? 






1 3 


A 


1 /I A 




lt?o 


K-^! A 


p lis 

o , X L O 


20 ' 


10, 


917 


104 : 


■ 244 


508 


• 2,064 


27 


1 


340 : 


179 


111 


: 842 


862 


Mar. 5 


90 : 


945 


124 


■ 113 . 


673- 


• 1,476 


12 


157 


726 : 


105 


132 


655 ; 


1,346 


19 


197 


778 


97 


53 


6 53 


1,027 


26 : 


470 : 


1,135 


143 : 


95 


1,142 


1,':"72 


Apr. 2 : 


195 


1,877 


82 


105 


578 


: 2,371 



Compiled from weekly report of Department of Commerce. 

Table 20.- Vfheat including flour: Shipments from principal exporting 
regions, specified dates, 1930-31 and 1931-32 









Argentina : 


Australia 


Tanube 


llorth America 




Dat^. 




1930-31 


1931-32 


1930-31: 


1931-32 


:1930-31 


1931-32 


•1930-31: 


1931-32 








1,000 . 


1,000 


1,000 


1,000 


• 1,000 


1,000 


1,000 : 


1,000 








bushels 


bushels: 


bushels 


bushels 


bushels 


bu-shels 


: bushel s : 


bushels 


July 


4- Aug. 


1 : 


4,892 


9,360 • 


6,320 


15,780 


408 


744 


40,616: 


27,048 


AiJ.g. 


8- Aug. 


29 


3,728 ; 


5,372 


4,8?l2 


7 , 596 


• 1,368 


504 


40,528: 


23,352 


Sept 


. 5-Oct. 


3 : 


3,756 • 


6 , 940 


5,460 


8,216 


4,312 


9,576 


45,552: 


30 , 960 


Oct. 


10-Oct. 


31 


4,124 


5,572 . 


6,492 ■. 


6,844 


. 1,288 


9,200 


: 28,680: 


29,040 


Nov . 


7-i\"ov.23 


• 2,912 


5, 854 


5 , 460 


5 , 900 


1,792 


6,224 


28,392: 


54,736 




5- J an . 


2 


: 4,964 : 


7,452 


10,320 


: 8,856 


1,552 • 


5,712 


28,168: 


28,152 


Jan.. 


9- J an . 


30 


9,264 


12,276 


17,720 


: 21,648 


: 152 


2,336 


24,288: 


20 , 560 


W 


eek ended 


















Feb. 


6 




3,604 


4,212 


4,516 


4,656 


88 


176 . 


4,496: 


5,:'68 




13 




: 4,392 


4,020 


4,000 


5,728 


: 160 


: 288 


6,504: 


5,240 




20 




: 4,292 


4,252 


4,606 


4 , 544 


0 


: 0 


: 5,040: 


5,673 




27 




• 4; 236 


5,148 


4,788 


: 4,901 


156 


232 


4,720: 


4,437 


Mar. 


5 




4,296 


• 6,344 


: 3,024 


: 4,8"6 


176 


144 


. 5,080: 


4,536 




12 




. 3,168 


: 7,108 


5,504 


: 5 , 120 


: 160 


328 


4,600: 


4,626 




19 




3 , 348 


: 7,016 


: 5,256 


4 , SCO 


16 


: 72 . 


4,728: 


3,665 




26 




: 3,304 


4,352 


: 5,096 


: 3,020 


352 


: 176 


4,400: 


5,552 


Apr. 


A 

C . • • . 




3,104 


4,154 


5,004 


3 , 927 


200 


400 


: 4,184: 


6,114 



Compiled from official and trade sources, 



m-72 



-41- 



la'ble 21.- ^Theat incl;.diag flour: Movement from orinciToal exporting 

countries, specified ■oeriods 



: Ex-Qo rts as given 'by official sources : 

Country : Tota l July 1 to dat e shown ; X)ate 

; 1_1 9.. 8 - 29: 192 9-30; 1930- 31: 1929-30 : 1}:.3C-31 : 1931-32: - 

: 1,000 : 1;000 : 1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000 : 
• "bushels : "bushels : "bushel s ; "bushels : bushels : hushel s: 



United States : 163,687: 153,242: 131,536: 115,802: -97,5i32: 98,446:rel3. 29 

Canada : 422,732; 184,213; 267,265: 126, 372 :' 191 , 121 ; 143,009 :FelD. 29 

Argentina : 227,059: 161,265: 120,510: 121,986: 51,838; 72,ll8:FeTD. 29 

Australia ; 107,785: 61,892: 143,295: 22,870: 36,906: 54,350:Dec. 31 

Russia : : 7,380: 110,909; : : 

Hungary , : 23,658: 31,415: 18,425: 12,111; 6,657: 10, 869; Jan. 31 

Yugoslavia : 7,91^: 23,593: 4,930: 18,362; 5,084: ll,272:Dec. 31 

R^anania : 1,553: 2,560: 14,792: 498; 11,358: 31,575:Dec. 31 

B^olgaria : 760: 96: 5,041: 70: 1,503; 5,369:Nov. 30 

British India (LS:S) . : 5,716: 5,798: 10.197; 1.733; 6.019: l,24 1;Sept 30 

I Total ; 960,969; 632,454; 827,000; 419,804; 408 , 038 ; 428 , 749 ; 

; Shiprn ents as ;?;iven "by cu rrent tra de sources 

: T otal" : , , Y/eeks ending ;July 1 to Ayr, 2 

: 1929-30; 1930-31: Mar. 19: Mar. 26: Apr. 2; 1930-31 : 19 31r-32 

; (Rev.)- : (P'r e l. ) ; ^ . 

: 1,000 ; r,000 : 1,000 ; 1,000 : 1,000 ; 1,000 : 1,000 

; "bushels : "bushels : "bushels ; "bushels : oushels: "bushels: "bushels 



jlorth A-.ierica a/ :_317,248 : 367 ,768; 3,665 ^ _ 5,552^ 6,114-! 279,976^240,637' 

Canada, 4 markets V ; 193,380; 270,168: 1,387 7" l76677~ 27918'r~201 , 434 : i487obT 

United States ; 149,758 ; 132.27 6; 1,027 ; 1 , 772 ; 2,371; 102,886:106,441 

Argentina : 164,934; 118,712; 7,016 ; '4,352r""^^4i 67,884: 99,422 

Australia : 64,375; 1^x4.512; 4, .320 ; 3,020 ; 3,927; 98,180:116,019 

Russia cy : 5,572; ;^2.520; 254 : .200: 224; 65,376: 71,288 

Danube & Bulgaria cy ; 13,384: 15,128; 72 ; 176; 400; 12,160; 35,880 

British ladia : d/ 1,9 35: 5,808; 0 ; _ 0; 0; 5,728; 616 

^^tal e/ ; 572,6 0 0; 744,448; 15.337 : 13, -300; 14,819; 550, 304; 565, 862 

Total Euro-Jcan : ; : '• ] ; r~ 

shipaents a/ : 476,096: 614,488: 11,712 : : : 440,712:421,680 

Total ex-Euro oean : ; : : ; . ' . ' 

shipnents a/ .... : 133,688: 172,500: 4,576 : ': 117 ,248; 144, 984 



a/ BroorrJiall' s Corn Trade ITows. 

b/ Tort l^rilliam. Port Arthur, Vancouver and Prince Ruoert. 

c/ Black Sea shipments only. 

d/ ITet inports 1929-30 were 1,847,893 bushels; for 1930-31 were 420,099 bushels. 

ej Total of trade figjres includes North America as reported by BrooiTihall' s. 



•^-72 



-42- 



Table 22i-V/heat including flour: Uet imports into lluropean countries, 
1929-50, 1930-31 and July 1 to latest date 1931-32 



Country 



United Kingdom 

Italy 

ISslgiu]Ti . . , o . . . 

France 

Jie the r lands . . . 

Germany 

Greece 

Irish Free State 
Switzerland 
^^us tria ...... 

CzechoslovaKia 
Denmark . 
Norway , . 
Finland . 
Sweden . . 
Poland . . 
Portugal 
Latvia .. 
Estonia . 
Spain . . . 



Total 



1929-30 


1930 




Prelimi- 
nary 


h'et imports 


reported 


:estimate 
1931-32 


July 


1 to 


• 1930 


-''-''1 


1951-32 


Million 


• Million 


Million 






! Million 


~ 

Million 


bushels 


bushels 


bushels 






bushels 


bushels 


202 




221 


220-230 


Feb . 


tf.9 




153 


172 


43 




84 


44-55 


Dec. 


31 




59 


8 


43 




45 


40-44 


Doc . 


31 




24 


26 


20 




45 


: 59-70 


Jan. 


31 




18 ■ 


42 


. 30 . 




35 


30-32 


Dec . 


31 




19 • 


16 


61 




30 


18-26 


Feb . 


29 




21 


iu 


22 




24 


16-20 


Dec . 


31 ' 




11 


12 


■ Iff 




19 


18-19 


Jan. 


31 




12 . 


12 


17 




16 


17-18 


Feb. 


29 




13 


15 


IS 




15 


. 15-17 


Dec. 


31 




7 


9 


;■ 12 




15 


22—24 


Dec . 


31 




11 


12 


8 




11 


• 15-16 


Jan. 


51 




6 


12 


7 




8 


7-8 


Feb. 


29 




6 . 


7 


6 




5 ' 


5-6 


Dec . 


51 




5 


3 


7 




5 


1 6-7 


Feb . 


29 




4 


4 






-4 




J an. 


51 




-2 


b/ -1 


6 




5 


2-4 


Dec . 


31 




1 


1 


2 




2 


: 1-2 


Dec . 


31 




1 


a/ 


1 




1 


1-2 


Jan. 


31 




1 


i/ 


5 


' a/b/ 




2-4 


Dec . 


51 


' a/b/ 




a/ 


528 


' 582 


' 560-590 




348 


350 



Compiled from official sources, 
a/ Less than 500,000 bushels. 
^ Fet exports. 



0 



^^«H-72 COillENTS PAGE 

1 - Summary i _ ^ 

2 - iVheat Acreage and Crop Conditions 4 _ 5 

3 - I'lew Crop Prospects in the United States 5 - 6 

4 - World Trade and Surpluses 6 - 8 

5 - Seeding; Conditions in Canada \ . 8 

6 - Prices g _ 12 

7 - The Wheat Situation in Argentina 12 - 13 

8 - Du.rijjri Prospects 13 _ I8 

9 - Continental Europe * .... 18 - 25 

10 - Market Section ' 25 _ 29 

11 - C hinese Wheat and Elour Markets ,. 29 

12 - Danu"be Basin '(Vheat Situation 20 - 38 

TABLES 

1 - .Theat: Supplies available for export and carry-over in the 4 

principal exporting countries, etc 7 

2 - Fiieat: Weighted average cash prices per bushel at stated markets 10 

3 - '/riieat: Closing prices per bushel of May futures at stated markets 10 

4 - Vfoeat: Price per bushel at specified markets 11 

5 - 'ifiieat: Avera.ge price per bushel of parcels of sppcified 

descriptions 12 

6 - Supply and distribution of durojn wheat in the United States . . 14 

7 - Italy: Imports of durum wheat 16 

8 - France: Imports of durum whr^at 16 

9 - Price per bushel of domestic wheat 19 

10 - ;fheat and wheat flour shipm.ents to the Continent 20 

11 - Wheat and wheat flour shipments to Europe 20 

12 - Continental European stocks of wheat, the middle of Eeb. & Mar. 21 

13 - G-ermany: Price per bushel of domestic wheat and rye 26 

14 - Germany: Second hand stocks of grain as of the end of Eebruary. 27 

15 - Price per bushel for wheat of comparable grades at Budapest 

and i'lovi-Sad 33 

16 - Wheat: Estimated acreage planted in the fall of 1931 in specified 

Danube Basin countries 34 

17 - United Ste^tes: Imports and ex]oorts of wheat incl-ading flour . . 39 

18 - Wheat including flour: Exports from, principal exporting covjitries 39 

19 - United States: Exports of wheat and wheat including flour ... 40 

20 - ifheat including flour: Shipments from principal exporting regions 40 

21 - iifheat including flour: Movement from principal exporting countries 41 

22 - Wheat including flour: Net imports into E'jiropean countries. , . 42 



WH-73 



IWITED STA^S LZ?ilRT":El™ OF AGEI CULTURE 
Bureau of Agricultural Economics 
Washington 



WOULD 'inmAT PHOSPECTS 





i XT g 1 -.„.i.oUi.:-i'^ 01 Agricnltare 
lay ■ 24,1932 



^ JUN 15 1332 



L I B R r- 



B t. O E t V *■ 



SuiTjnary 



Early indications sue-i:est the likelihood of a sonewhat smaller vmeat 
crop in the tlorthern Hemisphere outside Russia aiid China and a slightly 
smaller carry-over, so that wheat supplies during the surmner of 1932 appear 
lihely to be less burdensome than they were last year. Hot only are the 
Carry-over and the IJorthern Hemisphere crop o'litside Russia and China likely 
to be Siiialler than last year, but it appears that smaller supplies are to 
be expected from Russia. 

Crop conditions as of about the first of Lla;/ indicate that there will 
be a smaller v/inter wheat crop in the Horthern Hemisphere outside Russia and 
China thaii there was last year. Tlie outstanding reduction as compared with 
last year is in the winter wheat crop of the United States which is now 
fo recast at 441 million bushels compared with last year's production of 767 
million. Tliis reduction of nearly 350 million jushels in the United States 
winter wheat crop would much more than offset the increase in the spring 
wheat crops of the United States and Canada which would result if spring 
wheat yields in these countries should be about average this year instead 
of low as they vvere last year. In India some decrease in the total v/heat 
production is indicated by the latest production estimates. In Europe winter 
v/heat acreage as now reported is less than last j <" ar despite increases in 
France, Italy and G-ermany, and early condition reports su^^eEt that for 
Europe as a whole the condition of the crop is somew'.iat poorer than it was 
a year ago. 



'A'H-73 -2- 

The new crop year is near enougn at hand so that fnirly definite indica- 
tions o,re availahle as to the size of the carry-over into the new ye;,r, 
and some eorly indications are available as to the production of winter 
wheat. A large carry-over out of the current yeror is assured for ti:c world 
outside Russia, although it is likely that there will be soiae reduction 
corapored with the carry-over as of July 1, 1931. The great "bulk of this 
Carry-over will be in two exporting countries, the United States ;uid Cano.da. 

As a result of the very small yields harvested in 1931 ^nd delayed 
secdings this year, Russia appears likely to be a smaller factor in the world 
wheat market during the 1932-33 season tnan in either the 1930-31 or the 
1931-32 season. Tiie shortage of supplies in Russia seems likely to prevent 
large exports being made from the early harvest of the winter wheat re.^ions, 
ciid it is only these regions which are readily accessible from seaports. 

Ever since early January wheat prices at Chicago and Liverpool have 
been fluctuating within a rather narrow range, Wiay futures at both markets 
seldom going above 60 cents per bushel aiid seldom much below 55 cents. 
During this period, however, Liverpool prices have held their gr,o~.md better 
than Chicago j.)rices. Thu.s during January c?jid February L/iay f utures at C^icc^o 
averaged about 2 cents per bushel above Liverpool compared with 1 cent 
below in April and more thj>2i 2 cents per bushel lower on Ihy 16. Tiie greater 
strength of the Liverpool market maj^ be attributed, on the one hand, to a 
more direct effect upon that market of improved continental buying riid of 
the prospect of decrec.sing Southern Kemi sphere supplies, and, o;i tne other 
hand, to a lesT direct effect of the increase of currently avo.ilable supplies 
in the United States maikets. Somewhat less than 100 million bushels of 
Cash wheat are now being withheld by the Grain Stabilizrtion Corporation 
from the United States market compo.red with about 155 million bushels of 



WH-73 



-3- 



unsold each v.'hen.t hoidin^js .^s of Jobru'-r,)' 1, br;e redaction being ciaito 
largely d-'^e to the 40 million buon>:lt^ wnica hnve been .nade available to 
the Rod Cross. 

A continuation of present price trends would pirce Ojiicago prices 
in a more normal relationship to Liverpool, Cxiicat^'o {.■•rices ordinarily being 
10 or more cents per biishei uiidcr Liver;)Ool at times when the United States 
can export freely. During the current season, hov/evcr, coj^siderabl : exports 
have been made at narrower margins, po.rtly because United States wherts have 
been sellinf;^ at higher prices in the Liverpool marlcet than have certain 
other wueats deliverable on the Liverpool lutures contrrcts. 

Crop P rospects 

The '.^dicat acreage for the 1S32 hai-vest in the 22 countries of the 
northern Hemisphere for which estimates arc available is 163,712,000 acres 
as compared with 171,462,000 acres for the 1931 harvest -.vhich represented 
about 82 per cent of the estikiated total whert acrerge of tiie IITorthcrn 
Hemisphere exclusive of Russia and China. 

The condition of ti.e wi?ater wheat crop in the United States on 1 
was 75,1 per cent of normal v/hich indicr'ted a probable production of 
440,781,000 bu:diels as compo.rwd .vith 458,000,000 bushels indicated by the 
April 1 condition, and 787,455,000 bushels harvested in 1931. The acreage 
remaining for harvest is estimated at 32,277,0j0 acres -as compared with 
41,009,000 acres harvested in 1931. 

Tne spring wheat area which Craiadia-: f-rmers are ]/l;-'Xining to seed, 
together with winter wheat acreage, is signix iccattly below the acrer.'^e 
h.arvestod a year ago, but 2''ields elual to the long-time averr^e on the reduced 
acreage would give a harvest about 125 i!villio:-i bushels larger than the small 
1931 crop. Er.rly conditions nave been generally favorable altho-jgh tne 
season is late,- v/hich increases the danger from her.t in sum.-ier otA from early 
frosts. 

Tne Canadi,an spring wheat p,crea&e indic;-,ted by reports of fai-mers in- 
tentions to plant as of May 1 is 21,672,000 acres, a decr.rse ox 882,000 
acres from the final spring wheat esti'^ate for 1931. Last year a correspond- 
ing report of intended spring wheat acreage of 22,153,000 acres was 1,930,000 
acres below that harvested the preceding year; the first estimate after seeding 
was 23,370,000 acres, rnd the final estimate for spring wheat acrc-.ge adjusted 
in a-Cordr:ice with census data w.as 25,554,0:0 ,-cres. Four per cent of the 
fall sown acrerge is reported ab-.ndoned, leo.ving 496,500 acres for no.rvest 
compared •vith 560,445 acres in 1931. '3lie condition of the fall sosm grain 
on May 1 was about aver;,ge. 



-4- 



Seeding and early rro\'.'inr_- conditions in Canada liave been favorable this 
year through May 10 but seeding has been dela^^ed. Dry, moderately warm 
weather the first ten da:, s in Msy permitted rapid progress in field ?/ork, 
^ and operations which were rrrach retarded by cold, rainy^ weather the latter 
part of April are nov- advancing. The official report states chat by May 1 
spring seeding Vv'as about 23 per cent completed in Saskatchewan compared 
with 54 per cent in 1931 and 61 per cent in 1330. In Alberta, 17 per cent 
Was reported completed by i>Iay 1 this year comp^.rsd .'.'ith 55 per cent in 1931 
and 64^per cent in 1930. In Manitoba 52 per cent was completed this year 
as against 79 in 1931 e^id 75 in 1930. Moisture has been aiapl^ ^or the early 
growth of the plants. Hainfall in April was above average in both 
Saskatchewan and Alberta, m^^ch of it coming the latter part of tne month 
providing reserves of surface moisture for germination. Rainfall at four 
representative stations in Saskatchewan averaged about 1.2 inches this April 
compared with^only 0.1 inch a year ago aaid a 26-year average of 0.9 inches. 
In Alberta rainfall at thrte stations averaged nearly 2.1 Inches compared 
with 0.5 inch last year and an average of 0.8 inches. The first ten days 
of May have been drier than the corresponding period last May, which month 
was mausually dry, but surpluses in April more thm nalce up for the current 
May deficiency. Tlie moisture of the surface soil with lack of winds have 
so fax resulted in no appreciable soil drifting which harmed the crop the 
past two years. 



Temperatures the first ten davs of May have averaged slightly above 
those a year earlier when the month as a :Whole was slightly warmer than average. 
The v;armer weather is especially welcome since cool weather in April had 
retarded growth. 

Tlie winter wheat acreage in EuroiDC (aside from Russia) as now re- 
ported is below last year, ffr-nce, Italy and Germany nave seeded larger 
areas but decreases have occurred in other countries, principally in the 
Danube Basin. Dr^j'-ness which v/as experienced over most of France during the 
past winter was replaced by a period of rains towa^rd the end of March and 
the beginning of April. As a result of the cool waather and the prolonged 
ra.ins, some apprehension was bein^i expressed, but crop prospects now appear 
favorable, although the season is somewhat late and drier weather is urgent- 
ly needed. The weather in Italy has been too cool but crop conditions are 
still generally satisfactory. Official reports as of Ikiy 1^ from G-ermany, 
Czechoslovakia, Austria and Poland indicate an improvement over April 1. 
Conditions in Germany, Czechoslovakia ajid Austria, however, are less favor- 
,able than at the sai'ao time la.st yea.r, but in Poland are about the sajne a.s . 
last yea.r. Private reports from PolaJid are rather pessimistic. In R-jj-nania 
a;ad Yugoslavia the crops are generally sa.tisf actory but less frvor-^ble 
conditions are reported in Hungary and Bulgaria. 

T"he spring wheat a,reaw in Russia sown up to May 5 is reported at 
22,900,000 acres as compared with 25,700,000 acres sown up to the same date 
in 1931 and 30 , 400,0u0 acres in 1930. In 1S30 , 53 per cent, and in 1931, 
41 per cent of thu final spring wheat area had been sovm by Mr^^ 5. The 
total "plan" for the 1932 spring wheat acreage is 64,700,000 acres. Jreq.uent 



Wli-73 



-5- 



showers were reported throughout the E-aropean section of U.S.S.R. diring 
the first week of Vicy , Cold weather with nit^ht frosts were experienced 
in the Ural, Middle Volga and eastern ojid western Siberia. 

Preliminary forecasts' of the production in the three Iv'orth Africa.n 
countries total 73,721,000 bushels as compared with 69,186,000 bushels 
ha.rvested in 1951. Larger crops a,re forecast in Algeria ajid Tunis but a 
smaller harvest is expected in Morocco. 

In India where the area was increased from 31,582,000 to 33,907,000 
acres, some decrease in production seems likely. Tiie first official 
forecasi: of the 1932 wheat production in that country is 347,648,000 bushels 
as compared with 346,789,000 bushels, the corresponding es titrate of the 1931 
crop. Since this estimate was released the estimate of the production in 
the Pmija.b, which is the most important producing State, has been reduced 
more thcJi 7,000,000 bushels. 

Conditions in Australia ajid Argentina are m.ore favorable for seeding 
uhaai last spring a.nd some increase in acreage is expected. A rough a-pproxi- 
mation of the acreage in Australia, as forwo,rded by the Interna.tional 
Institute of Agriculture, is 15,500,000 acres as compared with 14,500,000 
acres last year. Agricultural Coiiunissioner Ray a.t Buenos Aires reported 
tha.t weather conditions in Argentina, hove permitted the preparp.tion of a. 
good area for v/heat. In the Bohia Blanca section it is reported that 
conditions ha.ve been more favorable for plowing thaji for several years 'pa.st. 
Seeding wa,s general in the Horth at the end of April and some varieties 
were being seeded in the South. 



Table 1.- V/heat: VJinter acreage in specified countries, 1930-31 

to 1932-33 



Crop and: cotm try , ,. - ' 


1930-31 


• 1931-32 


1932-33 


Wheat : 


1,000 c.cres 


1,000 acres 




1,000 acres 




■ 39,509 


: 41,009 




32 ,277 




24,893 


: 25,115 




25,158 




64,407 


f;7 1?^ 


: 57 . 445 




409 


389 




o oo 




25 


23 






France . 


■ ,12,977 


: 11,724 




12,894 




- 11 . 133 


: 11,245 




10,601 


I taly 


11,780 


: 11,995 




12,034 


Swi tzerland . . . . .,. . . . . ; i ■ 


121 


125 




125 




3,996 


: 4,653 




4,880 




4,155 


: ■ 4,058 




, 3,872 




5,212 


: 5,263 


•d/ 


5,001- 




2,979 


2,937 




2,955 




6,873 


: 6,154 ; 




5,595 




3,714 ■ 


4 , 494 




3,848 




■ 381 , : 


410 




376 




30 : 


. 32 : 




30 


Total (14) ..: 


63,785 : 


63,502 • 


• .62,621 




4,028 


3 , 615 ■ 




3,723 




2,957 : 


2,477 ■ . 




2,545 




1,903 : 


1,977 : 




2,274 




38 : 


18 




6 




8,926 : 


8,087 : 


8,548 




30,468 : 


31,582 : 




33,907 




1,253 : 


1,168 : 




1,191 




31,721 : 


32,750 : 


35,0 98 




168,839 


171,463 : 


163,712 


Estimated Northern : 










Hemisphere total winter : 










and spring acreage excl.: 










Russia and China : 


213,800 : 


210,100 : 






Russia ( f/ 


23,367 : 


29,172 : 




32 , 33 i' 


( £/■ : 


57,123 : 


62,899 







Compiled from official sources except as otherwise noted, 
a/ Winter area for harvest, 
b/ Total winter and spring area. 

c/ '/ifinter area remaining for harvest plus intentions to plant spring wheat, 
d/ Estimated in the Belgrade office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 
%j Third estimate, 
f/ Winter area. 
gj. Spring area. 

h/ Spring area sown up to May 5 was reported at 22,900,000 acres. In 1930 
53 per cent and in 1931, 41 per cent of the total spring area was sown "by 
May 5. 



WH-73 



-7- 



'ifheat Price s 

Cash prices of most classes of wheat in the United States averaged a 
little higher during April than in March, This represented some strength- 
ening of cash prices relative to futures, as futures showed virtually no 
change in their average level. Prices both in the United States and at 
Liverpool strengthened during early April following reports of serious 
damage to winter wheat in the United States. During the latter part of 
April there v/as a decline which vvas nearly as great as the previous rise. 
The decline was coincident with a sharp upswing in the total shipments from 
exporting countries, ■ 

Although cash ririces of wheat at principal markets averaged a little 
higher in April than in March, the United States average farm price as of 
the 15 of the month ;vas slightly lower, being 43,1 cents per oushel compared 
with 44,2 cents for Mo.rch, The average price of all classes and grades of 
wheat at 6 mariccts was 60,1 cents per bjshel in April compared with 57.8 
cents lor the previous month. I.iost classes of wheat also cveraged slightly 
higher in April, ITo. 2 Hard V/inter at Kansas City anu No. 2 Rod v/inter at 
St, Louis being approximately 2 cents higher said llo, 1 Dark Northern Sj^ring 
at Minneo.polis 1 cent per bushel higher. No. 2 Anber Durum at Minneapolis, 
however, declined from aii average of 78.4 cents for Mf^rch to 71.5 cents per 
bushel for April. 

Cash i^rices at the principal domiestic markets aiid in ottier exporting 
co"untries advanced during the early part of Api'il and subsequently declined. 
No. 5 Manitoba Northern at Winnipeg adv:mced from an average of 45.9 cents 
a bushel for the week ended April 1 to 51.1 for the week ended April 15, 
EUid for the week ended Miay 6 averaged 47.9 cents, Tlie course of prices of 
near futiires at Buenos Aires was similar to that at Winnipeg ond the average 
for the week ended May 6 was 47.4 cents per bushel. Domestic who,at at 
Berlin advcjnced during April raid the first two weeks of May, averaging $1.78 
on May 11. Prices of domestic whe^>t in Paris declined from. $1,84 to ^1.79 
during April b-jt during the first two weeks of May advanced to an averrge 
of $1.82. , Domestic wheat -t Milon averrgcd $1.57 on March 30, sli.^t 
o.dvajices during April resulted in a price of $1.71 for April 27. The average 
for Mcy. 11 was $1,75. The recent advances in prj.ces of domestic wheat in 
these importing markets cr<n be attributed in large part to relatively 
light stocks, 

, A comp,arison of -daily chans^-e-s in the prices of futures at Chicago and 
Liverpool discloses a .general tendency during recent weeks for the Liverpool 
market to len,d Chicago, in the upswings of prices and for Chicago to lead 
Liverpool iw the downswings. Meanwhile,; Chico^^o prices have declined relative 
to Liverpool. The rel-.tivo -decline at C}:icago- has been greater for nerr than 
for distent futures. Tims during J curaary and February, May i'utures at- Chicago 
averaged r-bout 2 cents per bushel .above Liverpool covr.pared with 1 cent -below 
in April and more thoji 3 cen:ts below on Mc^^ 11., vhil.c September futur es 
averaged 1,4 cents below Liverpool October futures in I'Qhxv.ra-y compared -.vith 
1.1 :cents below in April ?uid 2.5 cents below ■.>n Mr.y .11. The ^l^rerter strength 
of the Liverpool marlce-t mo^' be attributed, on the one hand, to a more direct 
effect of improved continental buying and the prospect of decreasing Southern 
Hemisphere su-iplies upon that market, and, on the other hand to the increase 
cf curr-3ntly available supplies on tht United States market. 



WH-73 



Table 2.- 



Whca,t: Closing pr:ces of M:'.y fut'ires at stated markets, 
J'etruary 6 to May 7, 1931 o.d 1G32 



Liverpool ay- 



Buenos 
Aires b/ 
1931 , :1932 




a/ Conver 
b/ Prices 
Thursday ' 



sions October 1931 to d 
are. of day previous to 
s price, e/ Previous W 



ate at noon buying ra,te 
othc3r prices _c/ Mrrch i 
ednesdoy's price. 



0 f exchange . 
utures. d/ Previous 



T.able 3.- V/heat: Weighted average cash prices at stated markets , 
' January 1 to May 6, 1931 and 1932 



Feb. 



Mar. 



Apr. 





All classes 


11 0, 


2 


■ No 


. 1 


: No. 


2 : 


No 


. 2 : 


: Western 






and grades 


Hard Winter 


Dk.N. 


SpriiTg/jriber Durum: Rjd W 


: nter 


white 




i 


six Fuaricets 


.Kansas 


C i ty : Minnea-DO lis 


Minnce 


•oolis : 


St J Louis 


Seattle 


a/ 




]. '.'-^1 




193l" : 


1932 


1931 


: 1 932 


: 1 931 : 


1932 ; 


1931 


:1932 


1931 :1932 








; Cents: 


Ocnt'_ 


.■1 J- „ 

^ "A u 




: Cenxj} : 


Cents: 




: Cents. 


Cents .'Cents 


1 


:~ ?l'"' 




. 69 ; 




75 




: 72 : 


S3 


'j j 


55 


66 : 


65 


O 


71 


59 


69 • 




75 


; 74 


: 72 : 


65 : 




: 57 : 


66 : 


64 


15 


73 


" 61 


' 71 ; 




78 


: 77 


- y 

: f o : 


86 : 


7fi 


: 56 : 


66 : 


64 


22 




. £3 


69 : 


54 


77 


• 79 


: 73 : 


90 : 


GO 


: 58 : 


56 : 


67 


29 


71 


cl 


5S : 


51 , 


76 


• 77 


: 72 : 


85 : 


75 


: 56 : 


66 : 


64 


5 


71 


60 


69 r 


5'^- ■ 


■75 


78 


. 72 : 


66 : 


73 


: 57 : 


65 : 


64 


12 


71 


57 


69 : 


52 : 


76 


76 


. 73 : 


64 : 


79 


: 56 : 


66 : 


61 


19 : 


71 • 


58 


69 : 


54 ; 


75 


77 


■ 74 : 


86 : 


79 


• 58 ; 


66 : 


63 


26 


71 


60 ; 


70 : 


55 : 


75 


77 


73 : 


86 : 


80 


56 : 


66 : 


63 


4 


71 


59 : 


70 : 


52 : 


75 : 


75 : 


71 : 


85 : 


78 


57 : 


66 : 


63 


11 : 


71 ; 


59 : 


70 ; 


53 : 


75 


76 


71 : 


81 : 


79 


56 : 


66 : 


63 


18 : 


; 71 < 


58 : 


70 : 


52 : 


76' : 


73 


72 : 


79 : 


78 


55 : 


66 : 


60 


25 : 


72 


56 : 


71 : 


47 : 


77 


67 


72 : 


74 : 


79 


52 : 


66 : 


57 


1 


74 


57 : 


■72 : 


48 : 


79 


66 


73 : 


72 : 


79 : 


52 : 


67 : 


58 


8 . 


74 


58 : 


73 : 


51 : 


79 : 


72 : 


72 : 


75 : 


80 : 


56 : 


68 : 


62 


15 ; 


75 


62 : 


74 : 


55 : 


80 : 


75 : 


75 : 


75 : 


80 : 


58 : 


68 : 


67 


22 ; 


7 4 . 


61 : 


73 : 


54 : 


80 : 


73 : 


74 : 


73 : 


CO : 


57 : 


69 : 


63 


23 


75 


60 : 


73 : 


52 : 


60 : 


73 : 


73 : 


66 : 


79 : 


56 : 


69 :• 


67 


'6 . 


76 . 


57 : 


73 : 


51 : 


82 : 


69 : 


76 : 


65 : 


SO : 


53 : 


69 : 





a/ Weekly averoge of daily cash quotations ba: 



4s No. 1 sacked 30 d.n^^'s delivery, 



WH-7 



-9- 



T'^.ble 4,- Wheat: Averat-;e price per bushel of parcels of specified 
descriptions c.i.f. at Liverpool, specified periods, 
1930-31 and 1931-32 



Period 


Ho. 3 Manitoba 
: Northern 


Ho safe 


1930-31 


1931-32 


: 1930-31 


1931-32 




Cents 


Cents 


: Cents • 


Cents 


July 


108 


63 ■ 


: 103 


: 57 


A.''ij^ • • 


104 


: 50 


107 


55 


Sept : 


93 


: 58 


86 


54 


Oct : 


87 • 


59 


82 


54 . 


Nov : 


79 


68 


76 : 


■ 53 


Dec 


75 


: 60 


68 


54 


J a:i 


71 


62 


61 


52 


Peb 


72 


: 54 


63 


55 


Mar 


71 


■ 56 


61 


: 57 


Apr 


72 ; 




' 64 




Week ended 










Feb. 5 


72 


61 


■ 60 


52 


12 ■ 


73 


: 61 


: 63 


53 


19 : 




64 


64 


56 


25 : 




: 67 


64 


: 59 


Mar. 4 


71 


67 


62 


58 


11 


71 


69 


62 


: 59 


, 18 


73 


: 57 


: 62 


58 


25 • 


71 


63 


: 60 


55 


Apr. 1 


63 


64 


59 


55 


8 


68 


65 


61 


55 


15 


71 


65 


64 ■ 


58 


22 


75 




67 




29 


71 




: 66 





Compiled from Broorahall's Daily Corn Trade News. 



ffH-73 



-10- 



Ta'cle 5.- Wheat: Price per bushel at specified markets, j'e'braar^ 5, ♦ 

1932 - May' s, 1932 



Week : 
ended. ; 


Ilt-'iis a.s 
C i tv 
a/ 


i'liiuie— 

Co ' W J L O « 


i xx ji i — • 

"DP;"' 

c 


Ti-i T p Pi q , 

i I* e s ' 

d/ 


yj \j \j s. 
.■ ' I 

Q 1 ■ ; 


G-reat : 

f/ • 


Serl in* 




Ivi i 1 an 




Lea bs 


Cents 


Gents 


'^nts . 


Gents 


Cents 


Cents 


G ents 


Cents 


Feb. 5 


53. / 


77 . 6 


: 45 . 2 • 


41 . 7 


' ' 55.7 : 


52.4 


156 


: lo8 


: loo 




51. 9 


75.9 


: 45.2 


42.7 


58.7 : 


1 1 A 

51 .4 


157 


1 ?2 


: loo 




o4. 1 


76. 6 


48.6 


: . 45 . 7 




: t;2.4 


: 161 


1 1 o 


169 


26 . . 


54. 8 


: 77.3 


: 51.1 


48. 1 


o6.6 ' 


Ovi. 6 


1^^9 


1 /'O 


1 1 '"TO 


Mar . 4 . . 


52. 4 


75.4 


50.7 


47 . 6 


62. 8 


5d.4 : 


ICO- 

159 




i /<o 


11 . . 


52 . 9 


75.5 


52.1 


: 48.2 


d8.4 : 


59.3 , 


158 


: 1 




18 .. 


51.5 • 


75.1 


- 49.9 


43.1 


: • 61.5 


: 59.1 


153 


: 178 


: 170 


25 . . 


: 4o.b 


67.1 


45.5 


: 45 . 0 


: 30.7 


: 59. 3 


Ibi 




. 1 (^U 


Apr. 1 ... 


-17.7 


: 66.4 


: 45.9 


: 45.8 


56 . 9 


: 61.6 ■ 


: 166 ■■ 


• •183- 


: 167 


8 .. 


: 51.1 ■ 


■ 71.9 


: 48.8 


: 46.9 


: 65.0 


60.8 


: ■167' 


•184' 


168 


15 .. 


54 . 6 


: 74.9 


: 51.1 


■ 48.0 


■ 55.1 


: 59.9- 


■ 169- • 


• -133 • 


: 167 


22 .. 


54.2 '■ 


: 73.2 


: 50.5 


: 48.3 




: 60,5 ■ 


169- • 


■ 1 33 • 


: 169 


29 .. 


: 69.5 ■ 


72.6 


' 48. 5 


47.5 




58.9 


170 


179 


171 


May 6 . . 


51.1 ■ 


68.9 


: 47.9 


47.4 






177 


182 


: 173 


13 . . 














: 178 


: • 182 


175 



Prices are averages of daily prices for weeks ending Friday except as 
follows: G-reat Britain prices of horae cjrown wheat are averages for. the week 
ending Saturday. ;Berlin, Paris, and I'lilan prices are Vtfednssday. g.uotations. 
Prices at Winnipeg, Buenos Aires and Liverpool are converted to United States 
money at the current rates of exchange beginning with the week ended September 
25. Prices at Berlin, Paris and uiilan are converted at the current ra.tes 
beginning Septeir.ber 2, . . 

a/ ilo. 2 Hard Winter ■ b/ ilo. 1 Dark northern Spring. 

_c/ iTo. 3 I'-anitoba ITorthern. d/ Hear futures. 

e/ All S£,les of imported parcels. 

f/ Home grown wheat in England at'id Wales. 

^/ Domestic. 



WH-73 



Surplus for Ex p ort a:id Carry-over 

SeiTiainint; supplies of wheat available for ex."nort or carry-over in 
the principal exporting countries are nearly as lar^e as those of a year ago. 
Supplies in the United States, Canada, Ar^^entina a:-d Australia, toe.ether 
with United Kin^jdoia port stocks a.nd ^uaaitities afloat, are estimo,ted c.t 
about 780 million bushels as of lua;,' 1 compared with 79S million a year 
earlier, Tnese estimates are of course subject to error through errors 
in txie production estimates on which they are based, but no very material 
chaiiges seem possible except in the case of supplies available in Southern 
Hemisphere countries. In addition to the countries included in the above 
total, Russia and the countries of the lower Daaiube 3asin need to be 
considered. Russian exports durini^ iviay oxia June of la-st year amo'onted to 
a little over 5 million bushels, v/hilc present indications are tnat some 
net imports may be necessary tnis year. In the surplus producing countries 
of the Danube Sasin indicrtibns also point to siaaller supplies then a year 
ago, the reduction apparently ainountin;^, to about 5 million busnels. Unless 
estimates for the Southern HeiTiisphere are significantly in error, totaJ 
exportable supplies are below txiose of a year ago. 

Although no com.prenensive figures of supplies in the principal import- 
ing coui'.tries o.re s.vailable, indic?.tions point to trieir bein^ at a low level. 
In the United Kiusdom port stocks are a.t a level higher than usual, but port 
stocks in the United Kingdom are aJwrys small relative to the rate of 
consumption, so that the high level of stocks does not indicate the likeli- 
hood of any great curtailment of imports into that country. On the Continent 
of Surope, on the other hand, especially in Germany, stocks of wheat appea^r 
to be very low raid to indicate that substaiitial purchases are to be 
expected, especiaJly if easier financing can be arrrn:-,ed. 

Viforld shipments during the past four months have averaged 15.8 
million bushels weekly, seldom dropping as low as 14 million end seldom 
risin^^ as high as 18 million. During la.te April rnd early Ifcy, however, 
there v/as a mc-jrked rise in the level of shipip.ents. I'or the first V7eek of 
May the;' totaled 20 million 'bushels, which was the largest shipment for 
any v;eek during the current crop year. This rise is somewhat similar to 
the one which took place in May of laf-t year following temiporaxy reductions 
in import restrictions similo.r to the reductions which hrve been made 
this year. Last year total shipments during I'iay and June avera,ged 17,7 
million bushels weekly compared v/ith 14.8 million weekly during the previous 
four months. 



WH-73 



-12- 



Taole 6.- wheat: Su] plies avail xole for export ai-d carr-'-over 

in tile four pi incip.al expr-rtin£.,couiitries,. United Zin^dom 
pert stocks, £nd stocks ailoat for United Irinu;doir., 
Continent ar.c. orders, l.irj- 1, ISoO - 1S32 



Conntr^^ or position 



../ 1 



United States, domestic grain 
Caiiadian gra .n 
Coiiada, domestic grain a/ . . 

United States grair ., 

Argentina c/ ,, 

Austrolia Cj' 

Total , 

United Kingdom port stock? : . . . 

V/keat , 

Flour (as vvkeat) 

Afloat for United ICingdom .... 

Afloat for Continent 

Afloat for orders 

Total 

G-rand total 



1350 


' . 1931 


• 1932 


Million 
bnsnels 


nillion 
: 'cnshels 


: Llillion , 
: ■ bushels 


351 

18 
172 •-. . 
5 

57 

51 


545 
: . 3 
: 202 
: 6 : 
95 
90 


: 391 
: 5 

:b/ 157 
P 27 

64- 

d/ 55 


6 34 


741 


710 


8 : 
2 : 
10 ■ : 
17 : 

8 


9 
1 
14 

24 : 
10 ' : 


( 

(56 
( 


-■to : 


58 : 


70 


67 9 : 


799 : 


7 80 



a/ Yeo.rs 1930 or.d 1931; ^arrj^-over July 31 plus net exports, May 1 - Jul^ 31. 
b/ Carry-over July 31, ]951; plus production, less domestic utilization 
and net exports Aagust - I'ebru.-F^j^^ and total exports karck pnd April, 
c/ Carr;--over J cnuary 1 plus production less domestic utilization ai'^d exports 
durin:-^ JrJi-.uars^ - April. 

d/ Tile official estimate of production used in this compilation is 
180,000,000 bushels. Agricultural Commissioner Pcjctcn believes this estim.ate 
is too low. 



VH-73 



The ''out inon"^al EurO,')jc.n \,lvjat .x.rl-;Gt Situation Durinj ..pril a/ 

Piu'chaccs 01 foroi;:-!! v/'tOct h, tli.^ various ccntiiu.ijt:..! IJuro'.poaiv cjun'jrios 
\7c-ro of fair volu.-ac , dur in.:; ty.o r.onth o. .-;pril, v/it]-^. :he laoat >,.ct i -/c iDu/iri^ 
occurring in north-v/cstorn .'^uroyo a::d Ital;". C-n!.iu.l L\iro ;c rvi^na:' n^d rathar 
cuict durin/; the second hali gf the :,ionth, v/itji tra.. o::c..._:tion ol Cor;aan;,' , v.'h'^ro 
dut;^--frcc iniportatio:;. of la.^d v/ho^.t \:'a3 o^riuibtcd. '.iJi'ad., Ojiaio) inclines 
toward tht. "belief th.:t, 'jGchaico-ll;; , at least, a el.-.tivel favoraole marhet 
v.fill prevail durin,; the st e:L t.'.iis eoason hec.UuCe cl '-ho aopai' :-n!:r_ lar_:a- 
rcquircments of i/aportin^j countries. 'This oelief, he\."ev^r assuin^-S that crop 
prospects for 1932 \/ill be ahout av.ra^'O. 

-■.t tho lV2inr.•in,^. of ..pril contin...nt..l ;r,urop^an marh^ts \.'._;ru "luatl^/ 
influenced "b^'' the uncertainty I'C^ardin'j the I-'o.rm ^oai'd'a \/hoat polic;, . It xias 
feared that sales v/ould oc made in such voltu-.ie and at such prices as weuld 
depress tho market. Lat^-r, liov/cvar, ohserv^rs heccvriv. cenvinCv-d tha': t]ie ?arm 
Board vas not .-ead^' emharh on such a polic/, an opi den v/hich v;as strengthened 
h; the European press intorvie:/ v/ith the President oi the Grain Stabilisation 
Corporation, v/he inaic^t^d that the otabilizatiOii Corpor,;..t iOxi vould r-ot pursue 
an active sales policy oxccpt on a cash eaeis. The Grain Stabilization 
Corporation is no\7 pledged !:o a polic;^ of sellin.,^ not racre thrji 5,0e0,000 bushels 
per month except directly to lorciyn Gov^;ri:iVie.:its . ja/rij stj.:,-ulas \.'aG also 
received iror .\.pji'ts indicating considerable ii.iport ne^ds :in Franc^ aiid Ital^ . 
These reooi'ts -.vrc strenj-jthencd by the repeat^'d l.'.;erin;' of do/iestic milling 
cuotas in th^s^ tv/o cou -tri.s. ..hil.. it h^-.s o, en previously pcinL^-d ou'. that 
iir .;entinG wheat v/as oi v^ry satisf actcy cualit^ -^his ;,ear, some complaints 
v/ere re"istercd duriny *._.ril, and it was stcted that Trance purc;iased larycr 
lo s of hard wintar \/h^at beCo.uSv; oi the unsatief ^.ctory cu..li..: of I-arusso and 
Rosafi rcceiv.-d. further favorable marlLet ic.ctor, in th^. opiniori of the 
continc-atal trade, v;as the permission to i.-yort, provisio.iall at least, 
1,800,000 bush-.;ls of V/hoL.t into S cin. Phis announcement was cCCGmpcniv^d bj, 
tne comment th .t the prohibit - on oi \;heat i;.y:0:'ts into Spain v/hich had existed 
foe some time v;as temporaeilj^ set ;side. lAirteier re orts on active bookinys of 
.■-ustealian \;hoat by the Far Ee.st, and the unfavorable dv^volopmcnt of the winter 
wheat crop in ';-he United States tended to bolst.r m.arket o -)inion. On the other 
hand, some tr-r.de observers still consid„r the stecks of v/hert held by ^-ho ?arn 
Board to be of sufficient s i yrm :' iccence to laryely offset 'he abovi^ mentioned 
f.'vorablc factors. In addition, 'die, consider the economic conditions in 
important consex'iin{:-; count'iiec are such as te leav<-. little e.ope for substantial 
improvement in demand ior soi^e time to come. 

P-'icee for dom-vstic \.'hcats on th^.. Continent moved yerei-elly upw:.rd, 
which \.-as to bo oxpocted as a result oi th^ furth-.i reduction of domestic 
supplies. Prices of overseas wheats wi continental markets g...nerall;, moved in 
lino wifii overseas m.arkets, that is, tho.^ rose so :cv;h:.t du:._'in ; the first half of 
April rnd rec^jded the l.:.st hi.ll of the m.onth. 

The stocks situation on the Continv^nt oi Suropc mc y be considered quite 
fcvorable. V/hoat stoc!:s ar^ v^r;, lo.; r.lmost ever^^'.liere and exert littla or no 
weight on the market. There wer-^ declines from the middle of Larch to the 
middle of ..pril at a co.isiderablc number of stora.;o points, includin;; Germcji 
second hcuid stocks, and stocks ior all importcent ports were bel-.v; those of a 
month ago . 

a/ Based o'ri report of '.'ss'is't ant ".J^ViViatm--al "Co;^inissioner Donald 'f. Christy, 
Berlin, German^,i:a;^ 3, and supplemented b;, cable, i:ay 12. 



uTI-73 



-14- 



Shiprnents of vine at tc the Cont inent 

Shi-onents of \vbaat to the Continent have recentl- increased, though if 
HjuTO-oe is ta^cen as a-vhole (including: not onl^^ the Continent, _ hut also England 
and shinments on order) some deciin. has occurred. Both Hussian and Damhe 
shi^^ments remained mite suall. ..ryent.ne and .n^stralian shipments nave also 
s^o^no a considerable decrease in recent v/eeks, as comparea wita previous v7es...o 
h^t ^hose from North .merica increased^ From the he^inning'oi^.ne season 

to eejTl - /.oril Viis -ear, shipments to all of Europe are ahout /,2v0,0l0 .. 
hushel3%elo.. last y^ar, out ahout 88,000,000 hushels ahove 1529"30. In tne 
case of the Continent, the situatio.. is somev/hat less favorahle. Shipments oo 
the Continent ior the same perioa this ;-ear are 20,800,000 bushels helow lasu 
-ear and only 24, 000, uOO ahove 1929-30., 

Tahle v.- Price -oer hushel of domestic wheat at specified markets, 

Jvl:; 2, 1931 - Kay 11, 1932 



Date 



1931 
July 2 

Aug* 5 

Sept. 2 a/ 

Oct , 7 " 

IJov. 4 

Dec. 2 

1932 
Jc^'n. 



Feh. 
Mar . 

is.pr , 



May 



o 
2 
2 
5 
13 
20 
27 
4 
11 



Paris 

Cents 
" 190' 
IS 7 
153 
165 
ISO 
lu2 

ise 

138 
170 
184 
183 
133 

I7y 

182 
132 



Milan 

Cents 
134 ■ 
150 
159 
134 
141 
144 



158 
172 
1S8 
IS? 
169 
171 
173 
175 



j3crlin ] 


r.r ague 


Vienna * 


poznan 


Cents 5 


C ent s : 


Cents : 


Ce^lts 


"l 7 2' ' : 


"124 t 




'84' " 


' 120 : 


116 ; 


104 : 


60 


: 131 ; 


102 : 


9 7 : 


55 


135 : 


110 : 


98 : 


51 


147 : 


lis 


114 : 


70 


143 : 


117 I 


118 : 


7b 


143 


115 : 


120 


75 


156 


113 : 


118 


; 72 


1 59 


117 : 


119 


: 74 


15? 


; 119 


125 


: 81 


]59 


: 119 


127 




159 


: 119 


129 




170 


: lis 


: 130 




177 


; 119 


: 131 




170 


: 119 


: 131 





"a/" "he'girjifn'j "at thir 



• date" convJraibVis "al-e nic^ie at "cur'i'cnt rates of ■c^^han^. 



prices per hushei of cortine^ital_ vAeat 



Paris 

Berlin 

Kiltoa 

pr ague 

Vienna 

Poznan 



End of J;Iarch 
Cento • 

182 
1G3 

153, 
119 
125 
78 



Middle of f-^-l 
Cents 

181 
169 

171 
119 
130 



End of ..pril 
Ce'nt D ■ 

180 
176 
174 

119 
132 



-15- 



Talile S.- CoiitirjG.ital iiluropeaii stocl.s of wheat, tLo ;aiddle of March 
and r.iiddle of i-Toril 1931 and 19 32 



Location 



Antv/e rp ( v i s ih 1 e ) 
Rotterdam 

Berlin (v/heat and flour 
Hamhurg (rough est ir': ate 
Bremen and Brocke 
German farm stocks 
German "Second Hand" 
Stochs e/ 



1931 

Middle 

of 
March 
i, OOO' huGhels 



a/ 



430 
4, 040 
1, 530 

460 

36,000 



■ ■ " " Id dale 
of 
April 
i , OOO' on she; 



h/ 



1932 



Middle 

of 
Mt.rch 
1 , O'L' J "b -a she Is 



1,S30 
2,610 

1 , 440 
510; 
0: 

20,500: 



c/ 



Middle 

of 
ii.pr il 
r,'OuO"hushels 





870 . 




700 


1, 


450 . 




1,300 


1, 


340 . 


V 


1,450 




V30 . 




1,100 




8 . 




11 


40, 


500 




28, 500 


••7, 


100 : 


d 


23,900 



c/ Middle of i'etiruar^,'' 



a/ End 'of Mar'ch. "' h/ 'E"nd or i-pri. 

d/ Kiddle of March. e- In warehousos snd flour mills (vdieot and flour): 
these totals are estimated to inclade 95 per cent oi the second hand stocks 
actually existing, and therefore must contain most ^oi the Eerlir^Hamhurg, and 



Breyaen-Brake data. 



darch 1. 



g/ ^.prii 1. 



Tahle 9.- \rneat and v/heat flour 


shipm.ents to th 


e Continent, 


stated 


periods, 1926-29 to 1951-22 






Four weeks ended \ 1928-29 


; 1929-30 J 


1930-31 


[ 1931-32 


~ fl,'006"¥usheTs" 


T,66d l)U3heis:l 


, L'OO husheis 


, 1, 000 oushels 




14,360 : 


25, 600 


14,080 




14,240 : 


28, 160 


: 18,560 




14,720 : 


23,040 


24,160 




16,760 : 


20,720 


25,240 




19,560 I 


15,000 


18,240 


Jan. 14 27,720 


9,495 : 


13, 560 


9,760 


Feh. 11 . : 26,120 


14,760 : 


17,440 


15,120 


Ear. 11 23,540 


16 , 360 : 


19,240 


17,000 




15,520 : 


16,520 


17,550 


-.ug. 1 to -pr. 8 . . . ; 265,200 


'■'T35, 5"76 ' ■ 


I'OO", 06C) " ' . 


T5'9', Y2 d 


Liove shipments supplied : 








"by - : 










13,456 : 


10,840 


25,520 




2,296 : 


14,712 


8,580 




: 119,rj24 i 


154,528 


125,520 



-16- 

Tatle 10.- 'Tneat and whet.t flour shipments 

1928-29 to 19:1-32 



;o Europe, stated periods, 



Four vreeks 
ended 



1928-29 ; l£21'-30 \ 1930-51 
iVuOd "bushel s : l^o'o"o %slie 1 s ; 1 , 000^ .'^'^l^.l.^l?. 



xhove 



Aug. 


• 27 . . . . .. . 


47,160 


: 45,600 : 


50,480. 


Sept . 


24: • o • • o 


50,800 


' : 41,520 : 


51-, 030 


Oct. 


22 n • • • o 


50,600 


: 40,120 I 


5o, OdO 


Nov. 


19 .... , 


; 59,560 


50,120 


58 , 150 


Dec. 


1? 


: 53,200 


: 30,160 : 


37, 560 


■Jan. 


14 ..... . 


: 52,960 


: 27,720 ; 


30,360 


Fe"b. 


11 . o . . . 


I 60,440 


: 36,960 : 


43,280 


Mar. ■ 


1 1_ • « • • • 


: 60,120 


: 32,720 : 


43,200 


Apr . 




: 51,720 


31,360 : 


53,640 


LUQ . 


1 to i«.pr. 3 


: " ^ 4867560 




' 408V840 


shipments supplied 








Danuhe .... 


I 2,128 


16,632 : 


11,524 




: 8 


: 4,344 : 


89,960 


Overseas . . . 


: 484, 'i24 


: 295,104 : 


307,256 






Section on 


Crop Conditions 





1931-32 
1,000 l)us_hel£ 

46,120 
52,8l0 
50, S^.O 
50, 040 
35,880 
33,800 
42,600 
46,550 
45^080 

' '"4"01 , 72*0 



34, 544 
72,856 
294,320 



Almost the entire western and central part oi Europe except France has 
experienced a severe \Yinter drought. Rainfall recorded at all of the principal 
stations in Germany, Austria, Czechoslovakia and Polsiid, v.dth the exception of 
Lemberg, has "been considerahly below normal for the six months ended Ilarch 31, 
1932. The droLi.^-jht has apparently oeen most severe over most of Germany, ^ 
exclusive of East Prussia, in the province of Upper Austria, in the provinces 
_of Bohemia, Moravia and Silesia in Czechoslovakia and in the southern and 
"western sections of Poland. Tables showing rainf all _durin.3 'he past six months 
to.gether v/ith the normals are presented on the following pages. 

As a further chock upon the effects of the droupit and the 'condition in 
v/hich the crop survived the v/inter a 1500 mile automobile trip was made by 
Mr. , Christy through certain sections of Germejiy, Poland, Czechoslovakia and 
..ustria. The following comments, are based on observations made diuring the above 
trio. Throughout the sections traversed the effects. of the drought were 
apparent. It should oq noted, ho\7ever, that the trip v/as presumably through 
the sections suffering the most damage so that conditions were probably bel ow 
the average of other sections of the countries visited. The poorest coiiditions 
v/ere observed in the northern part of Upper Austria where the st'and of winter 
grain was poor and the soil extremely liard and dry, but conditions also 
appeared unfavorable in west-^rn Czechoslovakia, eastern Germany azid southern 
Poland. 

uliile \;e havo no comparable observations for previous years with v.'hich to 
compare this year's observations, it appears that there was considerable winter 
kill, v/hich in many cases caused poor stands. In only a few cases, hov.rever, 
did the fields appear sufficiently daitiaged to cause their abandonzTient . The 



-rr- 



GXuCnt of total aTDandonmen': is dillicult to dGtorininc as some o.f the poor 
field raav have been ploughed up prior to the time of observation. Duo to 
the unfavorable economic conditions prevailing, it appea-'s that many fields, 
v/hich rai::ht ordinarily' be reseedcd, v/ill be permitted to produce whatever 
they can. 

In addition tc the lar.ge number of poor stands the ;rr.in in many cases 
appeared to be too yellov; in color. This is attributed to tv;o factors, first,, 
the severe winter drou'ht, and second, the largo decrease in the use of 
fertilizer. Tb.e first of these factors, the drought, can be, at least 
partially, offset by more abimdant rain during the next t'.;o months. The 
second factor, hov;ever, is bound to cause some reduction in yield, especiallj?- 
since planta do not utilise all of the fertilizers available during dry years. 

In addition to the winter drought tae oprinj is two or three weeks late 
and plantings of s])ring grains have '^een correspondingly delayed. Should 
the above four coimtries experience a dry si^inmer, as has been freely predicted 
for G^:.rmany, the supply of feed grains and forage v/ould undoubtedly be greatly 
reduced, although the-ef?.cct upon broad grain production v/ould be problematical, 
especially if there is nearly normal rainfall during Liay and June. 



In general it may be said that prospects for v;int>:,r -grains this ;,ear 
in the four countries visited are considerably below prospects at the same time 
a ;,ear ago, and uiiless the ;5:owing season from now on is extremely favorable. 



yields of winter \."heat and rye vxq expect'::d to be belo\.' those of 19S1. 



German^'- 



■T::e official crop condition report as of April 1, clearly reflects the 
uniavorable weather experienced luring the past several months. Since ..pril 1, 
conditions have improved. The condition of ea.ch of the three principal winter 



grains on I.Iay 1 v;as a'-:ove average ajid above Hay 1, 1931. The following t£;ble 
he Hay 



Shows the Ha:, 1, 19 32, condition ""i-i 



;ith com/par isons , 



Winter wheat 
^/i'intor rye 
Winter barley 



?• 1932 

2 . S 
2.6 
2.8 



-oril 19i2 



3.1 



;.i 



December 1931 May 1931 April 1931 



2.7 
2.7 
2.6 



2.9 
3.0 
2.9 



3.0 
3.0 
2.9 



2 - good, 



average , 



4 - -oocr. 



The most favorable conditions are apparently ij'. the district of Baden as 
well as in parfc or' northern and western Germany. Official comments indicate 
that :he extent of the frost damage has not 3-et been determined. 



^■-uthdrit ies are now becoming disturbed over the possible effects of the 
past winter's drovight, especially as a dry summer has also been predicted, a/ 

a,/ The long rongV wcather~fore"c'rVter\~i)Y.' '^^^ for 'soma 'tiine 

past published predictions of a dry suinmer on the basis of the relation 01 rain- 
fall to sun spots. His studies are given serious consideration. 



-18- 



Russian sprinr; sov/ing campaign 

The early figures available on the developments of the current spring 
sowing campaign compare favorahl;^ v/ith those of last year, hut the spring is 
again late in the southern sections of the Union and conditions are not at all 
satisfactory. Total sov/ings on May 5 amounted to 53,500,000 acres as compared 
-with 60,800,000 acres in 1931 and 93,000,000 acres in 1930, V/ith the hulk of 
sov/ings put in so late, there is a strong possihility that spring grain yields 
v/ill again he disappointing. Late sowings are certainly more suhject to the 
vagaries of Russian summer v/eather than those put in at a more seasonable date. 

The Russian press playc-d up the early comipletion of sov/ings in Crimea 
hut this actually has little significance as spring wheat is grov/n only to a 
very limited extent, most ol the spring acreage consisting of feed grains. 

Some localities of southern Ukraine have also completed the sowings of 
esirly grain crops hut the Ulcraine as a Vi/hole is still very hackv/ard. In ITorth 
Caucasus imfavorahle weather interrupted sowings prior to i:Lpril 15, on which 
date the acreage seeded v;as somewhat above that of a „^ear ago. 

±. comparison of sowings this ;,ear v/ith last, however, is somewhat mis- 
leading as the 1931 spring sowing campaign r;as itself very back\^'ard and the 
late soY/ings at that ti,_:e are generally regarded as being responsible for the 
poor yields obtamed in the South Eastern section of the Union last year. As 
a matter of fact the optimuin sov/ing period has already been passed in tlie 
regions of Middle Volga, Uorth Caucasus and Crimea, although v/ith the late spring, 
seedings during the later part of April may prove satisfactory-. The delay in 
sov/ings this year becomes clearly apparent if compared with those in 1930, when 
conditions were considered favorable. Total sowings on Kay 1 this year v/ere 
fully 43,800,000 acres beliind those on the same date in 1930. The following 
table shov;s the development of sowings during the past three years. 

So\;irigsof all crops to May?" 1 



Total Union 
Ukraine 

Horth Caucasus 

The unfavorable situation also prevails in the case of v/heat sovv'lngs, v/hich 
are greatly- hehind those of 1930 in all the early sov/ing regions, and even 
somewhat behind last year in the im.portant regions of Ukraine and North Caucasus. 
In regions which so\/ at a somewhat later date, conditions appear to be not far 
different from those of 1930. Total wheat so\/ings to ilay 1 are somewhat behind 
those to the same date a ^^ear ago btit far belov/ sowin;;o to May 1, 1950. 



1930 1931 1952 

1,000 acres 1,000 acres ^ 1,000 acre_s 

80,334 33,754 37,006 

11,381 



7,336 7,366 



V.-H-73 



-19- 



Sov/iiiSD of Dpring v/h^aat to 1 



1921 



19'32 



1,000 acres 



1,000 ;^cren 



North Caucasus 
Lov/er Volga a/ 
Middle Vol.^a a/ 



Ulcr ai ne 



Total Union 



3, 70S 
3,936 
2,604 
1,843 
16,121 



2,070 
2,980 
2,675 
2,120 

15, ::93 



a/ Includes Ropu^olic oi' Volga Germans 



Sowings of spring T.-ho at are particularly- baclc.vard in the Tjt:raine and North 
Caucasus where so'./ings arc oven below those of a 2'ear ago. Sov/ings in the Lower 
and Middle Volga regions are soinev/hat above a .year ago bvt far belo\/ the 1950 
sowings . 

To afford the most favorable growing conditions, so-.-ings in the North 
Caucasus and Lov/er Volga regions should be completed by April 20 and in the Middle 
Volga and iTicraine by May 1. 

Contrary to the late spring e:cpGrienced in the southern section of the 
Union, the spring is expected to be two or three v.'QoYs earlier than, usual in 
western Siberia and an early spring is also reported in eastern Siberia, V/liite 
Russia and the northern rejion. 

As usurl, the Soviet Press is cii;phasizing the early completio:- of sov/ings 
and everything is being done to stimulate tlie enthusiasm of the workers. In 
some cases the propagc.nd<- has apparently over reached its marh and, in their 
efforts to begin field operations at an early date, many collectives are reported 
to have broken do".'n their tractors by attempting to work in deep mud. Reports 
indicate that draft animals, have also been overworked. In addition, the ratio 
of gasoline utilization per acre was also -reatly increased and recently," the 
press has issued -oTrnings against such liasty and efficient sowing. It is again 
apparent that the desire to complete so\/ings in t]ie short period available _a/ 
has led to sli;os]iod methods. 

According to reports there is a lara'C increase in the number of tr.-Ctors 
and in machine trc.ctor stations, the latter having incro;:>3ed from 158 in 1930 
to 1400 in 1931 and .^100 in 19':.2. These str.tions arc expected to sow 66 million 
acres this year compared with 44 millior. in 1931 and 3.7 million in 1930. These 
figures should bo used -.-ith reservation, however, as there is considerable doubt 
concerning the u.scfullncss of man^; oi the tractors. It is well knov/n that 

' Russia has for some tira:. rc-oxported many of the xJiierican and German tractors 
which shu bought,, leaving the poorl;,- constructed Russian tractors for use in 
the couatry. These foreign tractors have been shipped out unaor Russian trade 

■ marks and sold at a less in order to build up a market for Russian machinery. 

' _a/ The f avorablV "sVwfng'~porTod'\i^^ tor; to i if teen days as the 

ground dries out extremely fast ai:d becomes unfavorable for seeding. Fields 
often change from deep mud to dryaicss -.-ithin three to five days. 



■:h-73 -20- 

TliG shcirc of tho Soviet Stc.to fra-mo in this year's pL.nting operations has 
also incroasGd but tl^G situition is at prcjscnt unfavorable. The reorgajiizat j on a/ 
of the farms v/hich was to have been conplotecL \-j Janu^ar;;,' 20 is still going on. "~ 
This naturally has handicapped sov'ing operations. Tho poor cuality of tr;:.ctor i 
repairs and tho' shortage of gasoline -viras reported early in Arri], during a 
meeting of the Grain .Trust Administration. It v/as also stated that mimy sections 
v/ero experiencing a shortage of labor, but this is probably due to lack of 
efficiency rather than an actual deficit of niimbers. Tractor repairs were re- 
ported completed on April 15 in ITorth Caucasus, Lower Volga, Crimea and Kasakstan, 
but for the Union as .a whole repairs were only 86.3 per cent complete at that time. 

Reports as of April 15 indicate that tlie collectives at that time had 
obtained only 85 per cent oi their total seed requirements. Failure to obtain 
complete seed requirements viras attributed partly to lack of suitable transportation. 
A report dated April 22 indicated that 97 per cent oi all seeds had been shipped 
to the different regions which were to receive Gover:mient help, but apparently 
these seeds were slow in arriving at their destination. This is particularly 
true in the case of thosjuregions receiving the bul': of the seed loan. In 



v/estern^iberia, Middl0#iWlga and Kasakstan only 3t, 30, and 47 per cent respect- 



rnSil 

ively 0ljll^hQ seed allotted had been received by At^ril 22. 
Condition of winter grain 



Reports are almost entirely lacking on the condition of winter sov/n grains 
at present,. Judging from January and February weather conditions there is a 
strong possibility of winter damage. 

Russian grain shipmiCnts 

Shipments through South Russian ports are continuing at low levels atid 
exports of all crops except corn are even below those of the previous four v/eeks. 
Total shipments through Soutn Hussian ports v/ero as lollov/s; 

July 1, 1931 to July 1, 11'7j0 to 

April 2 0, 1932 April 22, 1931 

In thousand bushels 

.V/hcat 71,664 83,075 

Rye 23,292 11,255 

Barley 31,365 46,550 

Oats 4,044 9,624 

Corn 7,031 2,C24 

It is now apparent that wheat shipments during the 1931-52 season v/ill 
not exceed 80 per cent of tho 1930-31 ship -ents , 

_a/ Cutting down the sTzV'of tVe' TndYH^iial f"arm^^ the personal 

responsibility, of the managers and foremen. As previously iiicntioned, this 
indicates an ad;aission of the failvu-e of extremely large scale farming. 



i 



Ilarket Section 

^x'hG long oxpoctod rcgulatio.ir. on foroign whett imoortn and the milling 
T3ercGntacG v;Gre finally anr.ouncod by tho acvorn.Tiont on April 2S and are 
effGctlve beginning i.ay 1, 1922. Accordin- to the nev/ docroe the . import diity 
on foreign wheat is reduced from v.l.o2 per bushel to ,].17 per nushel for a 
cuantity ecualling lb per cent ol the total wheat (foreign and domestic )nilled 
hy German mills using' foro igri wheat dia-inr; the period April 1, 1930 to June 50, 
1930. This reduction of the v/hcat duty is valid until Juiie 30, 19o2. 

By another decree the railling regulations previously existing have heen 
confir.ned hutthe VO per cent domestic nilling quota, formerly permitted only 
holders oi export cert ii ioates , has nov; been extended to those mills using v/heat 
imported under the new duty regulations. 

AS the wheat milled during the second ruarter of 1930 cy mills using 
foreign v;heat is estim.ated at 26,700,000 hushels, the amomt that can be milled 
this May and June is only 15 per cent of the above or 3,356,000 bushels. 

In addition, however, about 2,600,000 bushels of F.rva Board vmcst is 
still available which under previous agreonents between millers and the Deutsche 
Getreide Handelsgcsellschait must constitute at least half of the foreign wheat 
milled but not more than 10 per cent of tire total millings both domestic and 
foreign. It appears from t>e above that about 5,400, 0()0 to 6,GC0,000 bushels ^ 
of foreign wheat ./ill be utilized under the new reg-alations. Jrado circles view 
this as too low and are alre.:.dy talking abo.it a further reduction in the dom.es tic 
milling cuota., 

The duty reduction of 45 cents per bushel seems at first sight quite 
irr.p..rtant, but it should not be forgotten that a dut;; of ,1.-2 was seldom paid 
for wheat. Kills have heretoiore used foreign wheat piirchased on the basis of 
the wheat exchange system and this v;hoat averaged aboiit ;;pl.l7 - ',pl.30 per bushel 
for dut^ ajid exoort certif :jcato. Wb.eat imported at the reduced rate -'ill 
therefore be but little che^aper than foreign wheat previously, used. For 
piirchases of hard winter v;heat from the Gcvernirient stocks, a refund of 13 cents 
per bushel will be granted to place this v/hcat on the sa^ne price level as newly 
imp 0 r t e d \7he at . 

The import contingent was apparently fixed in such a \;a; as not to exert 
a depressing influence -on the hoi:io narhet. J-.s a matte-r oi fL.ct the trade consider 
the possible imports, imder the nov/ re.galrt ions so inadequate that prices have 
recently shov/n a sharp rise. Part of this rise, ho\/over, must bo attributed to 
the withholding of inquir:^ dtiring recent weeks in arit icipation of the casing 
of import restrictions. 

By decree effective April 13, 19Z2, the Government issued now reg-alations 
for the adr.-iission of duty fret, feed \/heat for poultry'. On the basis of the 
poultry census of December 1, 19.jl, every farmer wi].j receive on recuost, 
permission to buy 5.5 pounds of imported, duty free, eosinized feed wheat per 
hen. Importation and distribution of the whe;.t \.ill not be centralized \/ith 
the D.G.H. but will bo made through ordinary trade channels. i-iS a resiilt of 



-22- 



this now regulation noc.rly 3,000,000 buoliGls have alrcc.dy 'boGn purchased Idj 
inporters in Bclgiujn and Kollcnd, Plat.^3 being considered as the cheapest 
and most siiitahlo wheat in the market at the present time. Farmer inquiry 
for this wheat has not been as great as expected due pcj-tly to rush of spring 
'vork at this time. 



Table 11.- Germ-any: Price per bu.shel of domestic wheat end rye 
at specified markets, March IS - May 11, 1932 



Date 






\7hoat 




Rye 


[ Hamburg 


: 


Breslau a/ 


] Berlin b/ 


Berlin c/ 




Cents 




Cents 


; Cents 


Cents 


1932 




: 








Mar. 15 


1S4 


; 


155 


: 163 : 119 


23 t 165 


Q 


162 


: 161 : 118 


30 


: 154 


• 


166 


i 165 : 120 


Apr. 6 


155 




169 


: 15? : 121 


13 


159 




169 


169 : 120 


20 : 


171 


i 


174 


i 169 


120 


27 ; 


175 




176 


5 175 : 


120 


May 4 


178 




181 


: 177 ; 120 


11 : 


184 




182 


178 : 


125 



Price converted at current rates of~oxcharige . 

a/ Y/hi^at of average quality of 57,9 pounds per V/inchester bushel, 
"b/ "M|3.rkischcr" v/heat 58.3 - 59.0 po\uids per V/inchostcr bushel, 
c/ "Markischor" rye of 55.9 - 55.7 pounds per V/inchester bushel. 

Net imports of wheat and wheat flo-ijr into Germcjiy during March amounted 
to 1,427,000 bushels as compared -.;ith net ir.iports of 2,414,000 in February 
and 1,245,000 biishols in March last year. 

In th^ rauan tiiae, estiruate of g:: '.in stocks in mills and v/arohouses 
(so called second hand stocks) have been piublished for a second tii\:e. The 
figures are given in a slightly different v;ay from the first survci^" in that 
small mills belo\7 li short tons daily capacity-' and small v/arxjhouses bolov/ 
551 short tons storage capacity rre omitted. Figvires as of March 31 were 
as follows: 



\7hct.t 



Domestic 13,746 
Foreign, duty unpaid 2,094 
Foreign, duty paid 2, Ol'l 



R^-o Oats B:!rloy 
1 , 000 bushc 1 s 
6,275 6,001 3,706 



5,169 
1,530 



48 



1,075 
671 



•,/hoa.t Flour f?ye Flour 
1,000 barrels 



1,338 
1 
3 



552 
0 
3 



On the basis of the February results and considering the stocks not 
included in the second survey,-, the follo\/D ng comparable figures representing 
abotit 95 per ocirt of total quantities in mills and waroliouscs are published: 



-£3- 



German >jtoc 


ks of Graii'i and 


Grain Flour in 


Mills and Warehouses 








Do:i.es tie 


and foreign 




i'oreign 






iJuCj/- paid 




ur.paid 








1932 










Feb, 


Mar. ■ ■ ■■ 


Feb. 


Mar , 




,00.0 bus:iel3 


18,820 


16,553 


1,165 


2,094 


I'Qieat i'lour 


" barrels 


■ ],6o6 


1,461 




1 




" bv-Shels 


8,854 


9,511 


5,508 


5,169 


Rye flour 


" barrels 


683 


625 


1 


0 


Oats 


" bushels 


9,053 


6,313 


48 


48 


Barley 


" bushel a' 


6,S26 


4,800 


1,318 


1,075 



It vi'ill be seen froui tVie above tablo that second hand stocks of domestic 
and dutj paid foreign wheat have decreased 2,257,000 bushels dnrinc; March and 
flour stocks decreased at the same ti.-^.e 207,000 barrels. This decrease is not 
unexpected s* millers have been hesitatin;; to buy up wheat in view of the 
expected chani-e in i ..port res':^:'.latio.i and have been drawing on their own stocks 
to a f;jreater extent that at other tiries. This tondonc7 is also apparent in 
the comparative!" low import figures for March as well as in the slov/er decline 
in fd.rm stocks of wheat. 

Stcond ha:id stocks ol rye, domestic and foreign duty paid, 3ho\7 an 
increase of 657,000 bushels whereas foreign rye duty mipaid shov/s a decline of 
339,000 bushels. Accordinf^ to tradj estimates about 1,200,000 bu.shels of 
foreign r2'"o, ov/nod by the L*. i>. l-I. but not yet imported, are iiot included. It 
sliOTild be noted, that farm stocks of rye .have doorc.ccd considerably less than 
IcxSt year durin;'.; the period middle Fcbruo.r^, to middle March, and disappearance 
has also been slower v;hcn compared with t^iO preceding month. It appeal's that 
less rye is bein.-^ fed at prusent by farmjrs, and to that extent at least the 
r;X' sittu--tion becomes mor.-. iavoraclv;, althou^"-. t'lerc still remajns a 
considerable deficit. 1>he siaaller than usual decliiie in farm stocks is partly 
Oxfsjt by a net import in Mcrch of 2,086,000 bushels. 

Frrnce 



There has been vt.ry little activity on the French wheat markets during 
most of April, prices hav>-' been fluctuating in very narrow limits, and are at 

.Coent on about the same li..vel as towai-d the end of last month. 'Avo revisions 
Ox the milling ■,_uota were made since our last report, the percentage of foreign 
v/hcat being revised to 40 oer cent on March 27 axid to 45 per cent on April 2, 
]''32. 

T^omcstic markets have been comparative].y ';^uiet recently, both on account 
01 small offers of farmers and little buyiiig -interest on the part of the 
millers. The reserved attitude oi millers is cttributed to unsatisfactory floiJ.r 
sales. ■ 



I 



m-7d 



-:24- 



Business in foreign. whor.ts is also /rather quiet at the present time, 
although arrivals dur in.;- April contihuecf af high' levels thus forecasting 
sizable ir:;poi'ts this :;.oijth. 

nc.lj 

Italian wheat markets were only no do rat el;;- active during the month of 
April. Domestic ^vheat prices shov.'od a rising tendency and have no;v reached 
the level of early March. A further improvement in doaicstic prices is expected 
as the season progresses and domestic stocks decrease. The milling quota 
was again changed hy Government decree effective April 25, 1932. In the. case 
of soft v/heat for the production of flour and semolina the percentage of 
foreign wheats was raised to 60 per cent for northern and central Italy with 
the exception of the province of Latium. For Latium, southern Italy and the 
islands the quota of foreign soft wheats v/as raised to 85 per cent. This 
time the quota for foreign Uurum wheats was also changed and now amounts to 
90 per coxit foreign duriim for northern and central Italy excluding Latium and 
85 per cent for the other districts, 

BelgiujTi and Holland 

The Dutch wheat markets have been fairly active during the month of April. 
The tone of the market has been steady to firm and a fair am.ount of business 
v;as done mostly in Plates and Australian. After the rndddle of the month 
considerable activity developed in connection with the new German feed v/heat 
action. According to trade reports, nearly 3,000,000 bushels of Plate wheat 
have been bought in Dutch and Belgian markets for Germc^n. accoujit. 

A firm tone prevailed on the Belgian markets during the period under 
reviev;, with good inquiry for all descriptions, but particularly Plates. 
Trading becrine very active recently in spot and near Plates as a result of 
favorable prices. Antwerp also had a good sliare in the purchases of feed wheat 
for Germany. 

Czechoslovakia 

A quiet tendency prevailed on Czec]i.oslovakian wheat m.arkcts during the 
period under leview. Prices for domestic wheat remained unchanged throughout 
the mont;i of April, but activity' v;as small and buyers showed a very reserved 
attitude. Business in rye was r.lso small as millers are complaining of slow 
flour scles. 

The import contingent of v;heat for April was fixed at 1,500,000 bushels 
provisioiially, in addi.tiorL to a wheat flour coiitingent of 45,000 barrels. 
\7ith each four carloads of imported foreign whert one carlord of domestic 
wheat T'lust bo purchased. 



;k-73 



For the first tiniG figures ^ic.ve boon publicliGd "b^^ the Agrarir.n Institute 
on f:^rr.in stocks on Czcchoslovr.lvian fcrms. ^hosc figtiros r.re based on returns 
froi.-i about 1,000 largo farms. Accordin^i to this survcj tho follouing unsold 
grain stocks v/oro availablo (in per cent of last ^'oar's stocks) at the 
beginning of 195P. Actual ciiantitios arc not ^ivon. 







Uhcat 


R:-e 


I3..rle7 


Oats 


Bohemia, 


Moravi.a, Silesia 


97 


44 


138 


110 


Slovakia 


, KarpathiTu 










Ruthenia 




23 


29 


56 


51 



It appears from the above that r^, c stocics throughout "Lhe country are 
at lov/ levels and stocks of all grains are lov; in Slovakia and Karpathian 
Ruthenia where a severe drouth v/as experienced, last j"ear. 

Austria 

Austrian v/heat markets \/ere generally" inactive during the month of 
April, Prices lor domestic v/lieats showed a rising tendencv throughout the 
month alt!iou{h this movem.eiit \;as slow and the increases s'nall. riour sales 
continue slow and this is reflected in the cuiet tendenc'' cf the v/heat market. 

Considerable uncertainty on the rye mai'ket \;a.s caused by persistent 
rui.!ors about a further decrease of the import dut^ for rye and buyers hesitated 
to make covmnitments in expectation of a lower price level. Hewever, nothing 
definite . has as yet appeared regarding a change in the rye duty. 

?_uland 

Grain markets in Poland have been firmer during the period under review. 
Offers were rather small a:':d prices for v/heat and particularly rye have risen. 
Tho Govemiient is of the opinion that rye stocks are sufficient to cover 
requirements for the remainder of the crop year and tliat no rc-imports of rye 
are no-cessar^ this year. The wish, ho\;evor, ma^ be farther to the thought 
as the 1931 rye crop was at least 10 per cent below average. 



•7H-73 

^anube B asin V/lieat durir^g- March and .-xDril a/ 

The outstanding features of the v/heat situc-tion in the Danube Basin 
from the middle of IJarch to the rdddla of ^:pril v/ere : 

(1) l^o change in the estimated area of winter r/heat sov/n. 

(2) continued satisf actor"/ condition of the crops in Runania 
and Yugoslavia, hut less favorable conditions in Hvjigary and Bulgaria. 
[I'he Huiigarian crop is' reported to have suffered quite materially 
from insufficient snov/ covering and heavy freezing during the past 
month. The same conditions prevailed in Bulgaria, but the aamag-e 

was less intensive. Imandations also destroyed s^i acreage of v;inter 
v'heat largc-r than usual in all janube Basin co-antries. It is 
believed that- abandon:T)ent due to both floods axid frost v/ill not 
ezcoed 5 to 5 per cent. , _ • 

(3) There may be no spring v/heat seedings. The continued 
cold v/eathor follov.'cd by general inundations in Bessarabia, Eurnania, 
which normally "or educes most of the spring \:he^.t in the Danube 
Basin, made spring wheat sowing impossible, xho practical absence 
of spring v/heat seeding is not lilcely to seriously ^influence ^tno 

19 32" v/heat crop, hov/evor, as spring v/heat acreage does not, as 
a rule, exceed 10 per cent of all wheat in the Danube Basin. 

(A) Further inc:ease in the total exports from the DanuDo 
Basin for the year July 1, 1931 to Jmie 30, 1932. Total Pjobablo 
e>r3orts are now forecast by the Dairabe Basin office at o3, 500,000 
■ bushels, as compared with its previous estimate ox 80,690,000 busnels. 
The increase is due to higher "orobablo exports from Bulgaria, -./men 
result from increased export prices, and reduction in homo con- 
sumption as a result of the general crisis and tn-^ Government's 
high monopoly price for internal sales of wheat ana v/neat l±0ur. 
Inf oimation has been received from Rumania that \/heat exports oy 
sea increased materially td'ter the middle of xlpril. It is bc- 
lievod by the Danube Basin office that Ruj'aaniaJi wheat exports 
durino- iroril \/ill reach as much as 1,500,000 bushels instead of 
600,000 bushels wreviously estimated. It is thought that exports ^ 
hcvo increased as a result of a recently adopted bill ^.nlcn aoolisn- 
ed the payment of exoort "zrcmiuins on viieat. This bill ^/ill not be 
put into force ^jntil 10 days ^f tor it has bom published. ..uring 
this 10 day period reporters can dispose of existing stoclcs n-^-id 
inside the cov;ntry. 

(5) Buda-oest mills are reported to hold 450,000 barrels 
of unsold flour' in storo,ge. S^^les of who::.t flour within Hungary 
itself have been small, -./horeas sales of flour to ..ustria auring 
March were twice as large as sales of wheat (grain) and v/ore a 
multiple of flour s..les during previous months ir. 1932. ^This, 
combined witla the existence of an ..ustro-Himgcrirji clearing 
agreement, mav influence -onfavorably the marlcctii-.g of ^miericcji 
wheat and flour in .uistria during the rom.v.indcr of tne crop year. 

(6) Movement of grain from farms to m'-ri-ots have been 
small on account of floods and because of the rusn in spring worlc 
v/hicli has been delayed from four to six v/eclcs. 

(7) Relatively high internal prices caused by depleted 
stoclcs in Hungary and R^ania and by the activities of the Govem^nont 
v/hoat purchas ing a genc ies_in Bulgaria and lUgosla via. _ _ 

i/"BZsed on report of .l^sistant Agricultural Gommission.r 0. -ornard Gibbs, 
Belgrade, Yugoslavia, .-.pril 21, 1932. 



(8) Important clicui.^cs havo boon mc.do i:i Gov:-rm;nt Kclicf 
Organizations, cxcopt in 3ulg:ria. In Bulgaria, the Govornmont 
Bureau continued to oporato alonr tlM' s^^itio linos as d^orinf; tlic 
proceding month. 

Danulj 0 3as in I.Iarlcc - 1 s and Pr i c o s 

Ila rkots 

Activity on Danube Basin i.iarlccts during lato I..I:.rcli and early April 
v;cro curtailed as a result of shipping dif I'icultios caused by heavy rains 
and floods. Farmers \/orG also occupied \;ith sprir-g seeding and delivered 
only suiall quantities to markets. 

In Bulgaria, tlio G-ovorment Bureau is tlic only agency v/hicli can soil 
wheat. Sales to mills for home consujnption are made' directly by the Bureau, 
whereas wheat for export is sold by tiie Bureau to exporters with the xxader- 
standing that they miist export the wiieat within 21 days after the date of 
purchase. Sales by the Bureau for the past months have been curtailed as a 
result of reduced consuription due to decreased buying power, and the Govern- 
ment's high monopoly price of 78 cents per bushel, therefore, tlie Government 
Bureau is more actively engaged in sales for export. 

In H-ungary, transactions are unusually small, chiefly on account of 
greatly reduced local demand for flour that has caused mills to restrict their 
wheat purchases. Budapest mills are reported to hold as much as 450,000 
barrels of unsold flour in tlieir private warehouses. 0:i the other iiand, 
deliveries from farms v/ere also very small beoauso farincrs speculated for 
better prices, having boon informed that m.arlco table surpluses in tiie country 
are dopletod. 

'.Tneat transactions in Riynania have boon unimportai^^t during the period 
in roviev/. v;]ioat c onstmi^tion is greatly reduced and extensively supplemented 
by corn as human food. Practically no purchases v/ere made for export because 
internal prices cxco3dod the world parity, and export prcmiims have been 
abolished. Deliveries to marlcots \;cre also very small, principally as a 
result of transportation difficulties, duo to floods and also to depleted 
stocks on farms. 

In Yugoslavia tjio internal trade in wheat bocair.o free on April 1. The 
quantity of troais act ions did not fulfill earlier expectations, however, as 
ship-nents from farms to markets wore being hindered by floods and rush in 
field \7ork. 

Prices 

The course of prices in Danube Basin countries from the middle of March 
to the middle of April was determined by local conditions more than by the 
influence of world market prices. The price trend on important foreign markets 
v/as followed only by Bulgarian Exchanges during tiio ontlre period in review. 

In Bulgaria the Government Bureau contimicd to purchase wheat from 
farmers at ^7 cents per btxshol. a/ Of this price, 70 per cent is paid in cash, 

a/ Price for 59 poujids per bushel v.-iaeat, v/itli no r^-e and foreign m.attcr. 
Standard adjustments are made for wheat of different quality. 



WI-I-73 



end 30 p:;T cent in taxation bonds., The G-ovorniiient Jureau soils -.vhoat to Kills 
for noma ccns-onption under t'-onopoly control at 78 coirts per "bushel. Prices 
for sales by the aov:;rn:.-iont Bureau to exporters decreased ^juitil tho beginning 
of April and pic:ied up .-cain during th. first half cf npril, thus follo-ing 
tho tendency on -.;orld marlcets, v.-hich v/as to-be c:jrocctod because the Govorni:nen-t 
Bureau adjusts its sales prices to exporters to -..'orid Liarlat prices. 



Tabl.; 1£. -Price per bushol for -./hc-t of ccmparablo gr^-des at Budapest and 
Hori-3r.d, by inonths, Jrjiu^ry-I.Iarch and by v.-eel-cs,' I.Iarch 5-.oril 16, 19 C 2 a/ 



' Period ■ 





• 

[ Budapest, Hungary b/ 


l\"cvi-Sad, Yugoslavia c/ 






: Cents ; 


Cents 
















64 








! . 04 


Weolc ended 














: 84 








: 84 








: 85 








: 83 








: 63 








: 66 . 








: 64 








: 63 



Budapest prices froin the offic.iL-1 daily bulletins of t^io Budapest Grain Bx- 
change; l'ovi-3ad prices froni " I'rgovinslvi Glasnik" , a Belgrade ConiTiorcial 
j ournal . 

a/ Sirexilc averages cf daily prices for comparable grades in local currency 
and converted to United States dollars by using e::change rates on tlie 
Zurich Bxchange. ;,uotations of Hujigarian pengo on tlie Zurich Exchange 
ceased on 'iTcvember 21. The avera£:;e Bovember gold pengo exchange rate 
has been used for converting Budapest prices into, dollars . Budapest v/heat 
prices laave been (quoted in gold pengo since August 1. 

b/ Lower Tissa, 61.4-62.2 pounds per bushel, fcreig'i inarter not exceeding 
1 per cent. In addition to the above marhet ^rrice the purchaser has to 
pay 46 cents per bushel, representing tiie value of the grain ticlcet, from 
.v.'hich the farmer receives 29 cents. i''or wiieat that is exported the 48 
cents grain ticlcet expense is refunded by the Goveriirnent. 

c/ Until April 1 Government i-'onopoly price Tisza 62 po-jiids per V/irchestcr 

bushol, 1 per cent foreign matter, from Ax-^ril 1, free trade v/as reopened, 
aiid pricos refer to transactions on the i\ovi-3ad exchange. 

Kuiagarian prices v;ore subject to a continuous do^.T-v/ard tendency from 
the middle of Ilarch to the m.iddle of April. The prices cpaoted in Table 12 
referred, hov/ovor, only zo the usual grades of v/iieat sol., at Budapest. Such 
v/heat is practically out of demand as Budapest mills have important stocks 
of 'unsold flour on hand. Prices for special qualities of small grain, hard, 
Tisza red winter wheat v/ero, in contrast to usual grades, sold at unchanged 
prices that attained as high as 69 cents per bushel on provincial stations, 
or 7 6 cents per bushel in Budapest parit^r. 



WH-73 



Prices in Ru'najiia increased- nt^teri^J-lv from tlie iniclale of Ilarcii to 
April 7. Later they declined somev/hat \rat remained still higher than they were 
ct the middle of I.Iarch. ^-igher prices \/ere due to depleted stocI:s within the 
country combined with siiipping difficulties caused by floods and rains o 

In Yugoslavia free trade v/as reestablished on April 1 and, ./ith it tne 
free formation of prices. Prices declined continuously from the begirir.ing 
to the middle of April probably as c;, result of small home consumption of wheat 
bread determined by the still relatively liigh i:irice of \;h3at and the high 
milling tax prescribed by the nev/ Cereal Ivlarlccting Act. 

'.Vir;ter " /heat Seeding f or t he 195" C rop 

The acreage of winter' wheat seeded in tho fall of 1931 is estimated at 
17,675,000 acres, as compared v/ith 20,151,000 acres, the revised estimated 
acreage seeded in tho fc^ll of 1950, and the 5-yoar average fall seeding of 
10,043,000 acres. 

host of th: reoLucticn in this year's acreage is due to a smallor acre- 
age for Paoinania, v.hich is largely tho result of adverse weatxicr at seeding 
t irao . 

There is no now evidence concerning tiie acroag;e of vanter v/hcat sovrn in 
Danube Basin countries in tho fall of 1951, except in Bulgaria v/hero the 
liinistr;;,/ of Agriculture announces an acreage of 2,955,000 acres a/ as com- 
pared with 2,614,000 acres estimated by the Danube Bf.sin office. This, however, 
is a preliminary estiroatc, and tlio provious estimate by the Danube B^isin office 
has boon retained until mtorc conclusive information is available. 

The condition of winter v/heat in the G2:tire Basin was reported to be 
satisf actdr^v', except in Hungary \7hore the dry and cold winds, combined with tlio 
absence of snow-cover and tho Ic.tc spring iiavo delayed the usual grov/tli. 

Bulletin JJonsuel do 3t. tisiiiquc, issue of Janu-ry 1932. 



Table 13.-.;int:r whoat: 

1930 and 


re.. 30v.Ti. in the DanuJoc Basin in tho f.;,ll of 
1931, and average 1925-1929 


Country'- ' 


pall seeding 
" 1931 a/ 


: Fall se..di"ng 1950 ; 


Average 
1925-1929 
offici-l 


:As estimated : official ' 
:by the Danube : ostimates = 
: Basin office : 


Bulg<:.ria : 

Hungary : 

Rumania 

Yugoslavia • 

ju 0 1 « • • • « • '. 


1,000 acres 


: 1,000 acr_s : 1,000 acres 


l,00u acres 


2,814 

5,987 
5,001 


: 2,819 i '2,937 : 
: 4,058 : '4,056 : 
: 7,863 : 7,863 : 
: 5,414 : b/ 5,26 5 


■ -2,624 
3,625 
7,055 
4,542 


17,674 


: 20,154 : 20,121 


18,044 


a/ Estimated by t/ 


.0 Danube Basin office of t/xO Bureau of Agricultural Ilconom- 



ics. 

b/ Obtained by deducting cui estimated acreage for spring v/heat of 131,000 acres 
from t:io officially reported total acro--ge of 5,394,000 acres. 



"'/H-73 



-30- 



Abandorrapnt _in_ " "ii t Oj^VTIk) 

Destruction of v/intc-r v/lioat by frost end floods is reported from c-11 
Danube comitries. 'flio e:;tont of danagos as reported by private sources is 
app ar e n t ly oxaggo rated. 

Abandoiraent due to frost is officially reported only in Hungary. A 
review of frost damages from IS 24 to 1930 shows that the largest abandonment 
attributed to frost, which occurred in 1929 was only 87,000 

v/ith a planted winter v;he at acreage of 5,735,000 acres. Total abandonment in 
winter wheat acreage in the entire Basin caused by all raisfort-ones does not 
usually exceed 3 to 5 per cent. 

Inaring the winter snow fall was abundant, particularly in the mountains 
The sudden warm spell, after April 1, has resulted in melting of snov; in the 
mountains and on the fields, and all rivers in the Danube Basin have ovor- 
flov/ed. The situation iias been aggravated by heavy rainfa.ll during the first 
half of April. Important areas were' inundated, but tiic exact extent of the 
dainago is not yot Icnovm. The water level in most rivers has attained, or 
slightly surpassed, the 1925 level. It is therefore probable that the abandon 
ment due to floods will be about the scjuo as in 1926. 

The following table shows abandoiimont due to floods in Hungary and tota 
abandoixrient in YugoslaviCv from 1924 to 1950. 



Table M.-wTioat: Abandomont in Hungary and Yugoslavia, annual 1924 to 1930 





Kunf:;ary 


: Yugoslavia 


Harvest 
year 


Winter 
wheat 
acreage 
planted 


■ Abandon- 
ment in 

winter 

■ wheat 

' due to 
floods 


; Abandon- 
: ment due 
, to floods 
in per 
cont of 
planted 
ac rcage 


' All wheat 
' acreage 
• planted 


: Total 
; abandon- 
; ment in 
: all v.noat 


: Total 
: abandon- 
: ment in 
: per cent 
: of the 
; planted 
. acrea^:e 




1,000 


: 1,000 ' 


Per 


1,000 


1,000 


Per 




acres 


: acres 


cent 


acres 


acres 


cent 


1924 


3 , 500 


: 49.4 ; 


1.4 


4,421 


17 7 


: 4.0 


19 25 : 


3,540 


2.2 : 


0.1 


4,410 


103 


2.3 


1926 ...o.: 


5,704 


59.5 ! 


1.1 


4,443 : 


264 


5.9 


1927 • 


4,001 


1.5 ! 


b/ 


4,629 • 


109 


£.4 


1928 ...o. 


4,131 


0.5 : 




4,746 : 


64 


1.3 


1929 


■3,735 


0.2 : 


b,/ : 


5,310 : 


96 : 


1.8 


1930 


4,155 - 


0.2 : 


0/ 


o , 3oO ; 


119 ; 


2.2 



Compiled as follows: 

Hungary: Hungarian Statistical Yjarboolcs. Yugoslavia: "Supv^rficie 
productive ot lo Rondement dcs Plantos Gultivecs", official crop 
sunT.iary . 

a/ 'vVintor v/iicat acreage and abandonment due to floods alone not available, 
by Less than one- tenth of one por cent. 



■"•H-73 



Tho Bulgcrir.n v/intor v;hor.t crop is rcportGd to Iir.vc sufforod rathor 
importP-nt frost damagos. I'hoir oxto2it lies not yot bcon ostiiuatod. i>;0 inl'orma- 
tion is available concerning destruction by flooas in Eulg^aria. 

In Hungary, v/intor \/iioat, C3poci.-ll7 late sovm •./inter wheat suffered 
ranch I'rom the cold, dry v.-eathcr combined ^/ith insufficient sno\; cov:.r raid 
hard \;ind3 in sorno districts. The exact d.i'.ragc uy froets lu.s not yet been 
estimated officially. The Danube Basin office estii-iates th-t frost a..mages 
v/ill not exceed 2 p^r cent. The inundation of the Tissr and L'aros I'.iv'-ers 
destroyed important ar;,..s under wheat. The extent of tl.e damag-e has not yet 
been officially reported, but the water level in the e-bove itc- ntioned rivers 
being about the sej-no as in 1926, it is probable that flood dnnage v/ill not 
materially differ from that in 1926, i. o. 39,500 acres or 1.1 p:r cent of 
the planted v/inter \;Iieat acreag-o. 

Frost dimages in HujTiania v/ere lees important thai in Bulgaria and 
Hungary-. The fields -./ere covered \ixth sufficient snow end dernr^ges from 
freezing and thav/ing have, thus far, been reported frai: only a few counties 
in :v:oldavia« Flood demages have been important i:^. Transylva^iia and Bessarabia, 
ilost of the -./inter wheat acrca^;e in Rumcnia is outside of these t-./o regions, 
however. 

Yugoslavian fields wore also covered v/ith sufficient sno:/, and frost 
dcjTiages have not exceeded their normal oxto::.t. Bxtensivc areas have been in- 
undated by several important rivers and it is thought ch:^.t the acrca^-e 
destroyed by floods "./ill exceed some-./hat that ruined in 1926. Total e.b::adon- 
raent in 1926 in all -./heat erno-onted to 264,000 e-crcs or 6 per cent of the 
pi: n ted acreage. 

3nring • . /heat seeding for harvest in 1932 

Host of the spring wheat in the Danube Das in is produced in Dcssare^bia, 
Eurnania. The long winter followed by floods in that area has thus far pre- 
vented the seeding of spring wheat e^id it is believed that practically no 
spring v/heat //ill be scve: tliis year in P.-um/nia and very little in other 
D . naub o c ou:i t r i :■ s . 

The absence of 3pri::g wher.t is not liicely to seriously influence the 
1952 -./heat production, ho-./ever, because spring -./ho^.t acreage does not, as a 
rule, exceed 10 per cent of all \/hoat in the Danube Das in. a/ 



a/ It is reported tn .t more barley and com will be pl-urted this ye/..r, to 
replace the deficiency in spring wheat. 



. ccrnpc.ro d -.-.-ith ail"'-.,iio.'."t , :,iin-dc.l 1924 to 1931 











-nujo Sasin 




RTJumnia 








V/liea 


-I. 


, 

Spring, 


v/heat ! 


Spring 


Year 










•;7Aeat 






wheat 










in percent- ; 






in percent- 








• 


All 


Dprixig . 










ft 




,age of. all ; 




age of all 








: 




. v/Iieat ; 






v/heat 






1,000 


: 


1,000 


■ ' Per 


1,000 


! 1,000 


Per 






acres 




acres 


ce'nt 


acres 


; acres 


cent 


19 £4 


« • 


1,433 


• 
• 


18,372 


7.8 • 


1,207 


: 7,838 


! 15.4 


1925 


e • 


1,147 




18,698 


■ 5.1 


920' 


: 8,156 


! 11.3 


1926 




890 




19,039 


4.7 


617 


: 8,222 


7.5 


1927 


• • 


887 




19,014 


4.7 


546 


5 7,655 


I 6.4 


1928 


• • 


872 




19,559 


: 4.4 


: 642 


: 7,923 


1 8.1 


1929 


• • 


1,127 




18,777 


: 6.0 


534 


: 6,764 


9.4 


1930 . 


• • 


932 




20 , 139 


4.6 


! 678 


; 7,551 


: 9.0 


1931 


• • 


964 




21,115 


: 4.5 


: 702 


: 8,565 


: 8.2 



Compiled as follows: 

Bulj^aria ; 1924 to 1929 inclnsive: from Statistique i-^£:.ricole de la 
Bulgarie. 1930: All y/heat from B-ulletin I.Iensuel de Statistique, Vol. X-X, 
ITo. 9, and spring-v/heat from data Detained from, txie Ivational- Banlz of 
Bulgaria. 1931: from Danusda "wlieat Hoport h"o. 15, February 1932, page 2, 
Table 1. 

Hungary ; 1924 to 1950 inclusive: fro"m Hungarian Statistical Yearbooks 
for the years 1924 to 1930. 1931: from. Danusda 'Tneat Report Ho. 15, 
Febriiary 1932, page 2, Table 1. 

Rumania ; 1924 to 1930 inclusive: fram Statistica Agricola, Part I. 
1931: from, Danusda ■'•neat Report Ho. 15, February 1932, page 2, Table 1. 
YufTOslavia: Spring wheat 1924, 1925, 1929 and 1930: approximation 
based on normal ioroportion of spring wheat in all v/heat. All v/heat from 
"Superficies Prodx;ctives ot Ic Rendomont dos Plexites Gultivoos", issue of 
1950. Spring v;hoat and all v/hoat 19 25 to 19 28: from "Superficies 
Productives ot lo Rendoment dos Plai'ites Gultivoos". 1931: from Danusda 
'7hoat Report Ho. 15, February, 1932, page 2, Table 1. 

Devo lopmonts in G qv;o rumen t Aid 

The Rui-nanian and Yugoslavian Government aid systems have vindergono im- 
portant changes during the period under reviov;, and tho roplacomont of the 
Htnigo.rian grain ticl^ot system by a moro general relief has been enacted. Tho 
readjustment of farm relief in the above countries v/ill ^probably bo follov;cd 
by a reform of Government aid in Bulgaria. Those roior.-is have become necessary 
largely on acco^mt of tho Government's inability in Danube Basin countries to ^ 
maintain an effective control over the milling and internal trade of wheat. 

negotiations for comi-norcial troa-cies based' on tno open preference system 
and for clearing agreeinents destined to enable their enforcement have been con- 
tim-wOd aaid have resulted in the ratification of tho Germcn-H^mgarian comm:rcial 
treaty by the Gorman Govominent and in the conclusion of Gorman-Hvrxgcrian end 
Bulgarian-Swiss clG?ring. agroomcnts. 



A first stop tov/ard coix.ion ncrl^otinc of r^ri cultural products in tlic 
thrcG Balfcir. countries of tlio teabo Basin lias bco:! ■--.ado by Icrgc Govorrxicnt 
controlled agricultural cooporativos in Bulgaria, Z^ur.ania and Yugoslavia. 
ThcsG coo-oorativGS have engaged to inior.n oacli ctlier daily of their sales 
prices in order to no.intcin their 'ffors on the sane level. They also propose 
to nal^c purchases of foreign products and r.achine3 in coixion. 

^he follov;ing gives en abstr.xt of the changes in Governi-.ient aid, as 
conpared ;;ith the discarded systems, and a short account of dcvelcpDonts m 
cc:n;icrcial treaty and clearing agreement negotiations. 

In Bulfraria tho Governrient Grain Farchasing Bureau has continued to 
operate under^the provisions of the 1:^; of October 12, 1931 v/hich^establisncd 
Goverrxiont monopoly control of the count ly's grain trade, w'heat is purcnascd 
from f amors by the Bureau at 67 cents per bushel f . o. b. Var:ia or Bourgas 
(a farr.i price of about 6E cents per bushel), and is resold to mills at 76 cai ts 
per bushel. The profit from such sales is used to cover losses on wheat sold 
for e::port. 

The Bureau is at present having difficulties in m^ntaining an effective 
monopoly control over sales to mills, a/ and it is fei.rod that other m.cans v/ill 
have to be emxlcyed in order to secure funds to cover cxp-rrt losses. 

The Bulgarian Government has succeeded in concluding c- clearing^ c-grcemont 
v/ith S-aitzorland which v/ill enable Bulg:.rian exporters to cnchangc their agri- 
cultural products against S^.viss industrial ccrxicditios. 

In Hungary the present grain ticlcet system provides for a consumption 
tax of 47.5 cents on each bushel of v/hoat, lyo or m.aslin sold for homo con-^ 
sumption a/ and for a milling tc^: of 11.9 cents per bushel cf wheat or maslin 
that is ground by commercial mills. Only farmers are exempted from the payiment 
of these taxes. Prom the 4-7.6 cents cashed on each btishel of wheat b/^rye or 
maslin, the Government pays 26.6 cents to the farmer, v.nereas the residual 
19.0 cents and the 11.9 cents milling tax are turned over to the benefit of a 
"Cereal Harlteting Fimd" . All expenses cf the relief system are paid out of tnis 
fund and out cf appropriations obtained from tlie Goverrjmont. The outstanding 
expenses are refund cf the consumption tax and milling tax on exported wheat, 
rye, m.aslin or flour; export premiums cf 15.7 cents per bushel of v.^ioat, rye, 
maslin or equivalent on flour exported betwoju July 20 and October 18, 1952; 
payment cf the land ta:: c'largcd to the so-called "dwarf "-farmers . 

This system proved to be unsatisfactory, because it promoted the produc- 
tion of bread-cereals and also resulted in losses to th:; Government on acco-jnt 

of the evasio ns of consum-ption and m il linr tax, c/ There fore a now system 

a/ 14.3 cents in cash and 14.3 cents in t9c:-crcdit. If nc more taxes are on 

record against the farmer, the entire 28.5 cents is refimded in cash, 
b/ This cons'xipticn tax is paid by the purchaser of -/heat (provided he is not 
a farm.or), in the form cf a "grain-ticket" which is purchased in post 
offices and Gcvornment tobacco stores, etc. The farmer receives the 
"coupon" cf the grain ticket, for which he receives from the Government 
the refund in tax-credit and / or cash, 
c/ The Febr^aary official ror.ort by the Hun^-arian Ministry cf i-'inance stated tnat 
the i^resert shortage in" tlie grain ticket fu:id v/hicli will have to bo paid oy 
special Govenojment appropriation was 705, 000. This represents the ac- 
cumulated shortage from tlio operation in both 1930-31 and 1931-3E. ^^^^^^ 
generally believed that this shortage will reach ,^5,247,000 to -,,6,122,^00 
before Ju::e 30, 1952. 



WH-7o 



providing for r.cro gonoral relief cvnd a tiglitor ccrtrol cf r/.ills tc to put 
into fcrcG beginning v;itn Jur- 1, 1032, , lies been outlined and publislied in 
tno Official Gazette on Jo^-il 10. . 

The new system consists in the Goyerni'nent paying the farmer's land tax 
for 1932-33. The. expenses will be covered 07 a single milling tax, the rate 
of which will be 59.5 cents v;hich is equal to the present 47.6 cents grain 
ticlvet plus the 11.9 cents milling tax. The Govenoraent will refund to farmers 
the milling ta:: on cereals grouna for their o\m consunption on the basis of 
certificates issued to them by the rao.yoralties of their comiiiunities. To ^ ensure 
a tight control over mills, a supervisor will be located in each large mill. 

It is expected, that this system will result in a s'arplus of milling 
taxes over outlays, of about ;A, 574, 000 which is in addition to an allov;ance 
of v-2,098,600 made for maximum possible leeJcago in the milling tax incomes. 
Tho'siirpluo from the milling tax will bo used for the promotion of mariccting 
all agricultural products. 

The Hungarian Government has not yet paid the export prcmiu-ii on wheat 
that was exported between July 20 to October 16, 1931. Itogariah exporters 
v/erc required to increase the price paid to farmers to the extent of the ^16.7 
cents export promiuiTi, and it is believed by Govon^mont officials that this 
rule was not always adiiored to. At present auditors 01 the I.linistry of x- in» ce 
arc at work to determine the extent of such practices -nd many abuses havo^ 
already been detected. According to statements published in newspapers, the 
GovorriTiont \;ill only pay the part of the er.port prjmium that has actually 
been delivered to tho farmer. 

The German-Hungarian commercial treaty v/Jiicli was published on December 
18, 1931, and v/hich secures 25 per cent reduction in tho customs tax^ior 
Hujigarian wheat witho^it sjiy restriction in the quantity that may be imported, 
will soon become valid. Germany has persuaded Russia and ..rgentina, who have 
boon opposed to this treaty, to withdraw their opposition. Tho enactment of 
the ratification by tho Hungarian Farliaiicnt is no'v in progress. A Gernian- 
Hungarian clearing agreement, to enable tho practical oi:forcoment of this 
treaty was signed on April 14. 

The enactment by tho French Senate and Hung.:-ri:'/n p:,rliam:-nt of the 
French-Hungarirji comi7iercial treaty siipplement v.iiich provides^ for a 50 per cent 
reduction in tho import custom duty for H^ongaricn viieat to tho extent cf 10 
per cent of the total qucjitity of \.-hoat imported into ^'ranco from foroig-n 
countries, is no\/ in progress. 

The Austro-Hungarian comj-ncrcial treaty will expire on June 30, 1932. It 
has been annomicod by tho Austrian Government that the present treaty will bo 
replaced by a nc\; treaty based on the open preference system.. 

The text of the Czechoslovak-Hungarian trc.^ty is reported to have been 
agreed upon, but difficulties ^/ith the clearing agreement still prevent its 
conclusion. 

A Bolgian-Huiagarian clearing agreement v.t.s sigi^ed at the end of Llarcn, 
v;hich is also valid for Luxembourg. This c-grocmont includes the usual pro- 
visions of clearing agreements. 

In Rume^aia the House of Representatives and the Senate have adopted a 
bill that definitely abolishes tho -..-h-oat export premium. A d.i-y 01 lu ^..5.0 



•■7H-73 

cftor tho publicr.ticn of tlio lav; hr.s boon grcr.tcd to clo..r stocks purchcsod for 
c::.-ort. .u't^r this dolay hc-s olap^sod no lyicr^ oiiport prov-iiii:.! clcims v/ill be cccopt- 
cd^ The brcad-tJ.:c, Ijvioc. in co:ir.octic:n ::ith tho r.QOlisIici c;:pcrt pror::iu-.i L.ct, 
v;ill bo rotc-iiiod long cnGUgl'i' to cncblo the Govormcnt to licuid:-.-to tac etill un- 
paid o::i:crt proi.iiu:.i3 . ' Thi^ brcr.d-tar. C"Ounts to 0.27 cents per pound on white 
brcc-d, r.nd 0.14 cents per poui-.d on dark. broad. 

- - Tho oi'iGunt ci" ..tho-mipc.id ..enport .proninr/.s is ostiuK-tod, at about -2,400,000 
f ro:-i v.hicA . about „.l, 560, 000 represent prer.irx.i3 on -..'lie at exportec. before nocciber 1, 
1951. -^h.e i-Iinistr/'- Gf Agriculture tried' to Gocuro a- loan iron tic iraficncl Bank 
\,lth v/hieh to- pav the enport prcniuiViS.. This., loan .v^-as nc.t..cbtcinod,.. .hov/ever,, and 
it is ncv; reported thj.t the hinistry ef I''in:.nce docidod 'to use .^600, 000 fror.i the 
"ij'und J" 01 tiio Hunanian stabiiizati&n- loan, .^a portion, .ci' -..hich has recently been 
made availo-blo. Tho non-pajinent of tiio pro:,-;im"i has caused considerable concern 
csMng v;-heat enpcrters.' B'raila' o::portors' arc rep'crtcd to consider the idea of a 
general grain cnportors' strike, should tro Gcvernj.ient not pay- t'lr: preni"X.is in a 
near future'. Th.e .activity of local grain dealers is paralized by lack of capital, 
wiiich is oggrsavated by tlio non-payi-.icnt of the pro-.-uui.iS, v.hile tho' -Eralla Agency cf 
cji ir;:pcrtant for.?ign ccnc'ern has recoived instructions f r'o-.n It's h'oad office to 
prepare to licpaidato its 'ousiness in Ru;noa:ia, should tho pi-onims' not be paid in 
ViiQ near future. ' ' • ' ' • ' 

• Tiio Austro-Huj-.ianian cori-iorcial treaty v;ill enpire' on Jivr.Q 30, 19 3:3. It has 
boon arjiouncod by tlio Austrian C-ovcrment, that 'the present treaty will be re- 
placed by a ncv; treaty based on the open preference systcir.. ' ' . ' ' 

The Rui'.ianian Ooverru.ient has concluded negotiations for a clet.-.ring agreor.ient 
v;ith Austria. It is cicpected that the agree:ucnt ;7ill seen beccrio valid. 

Negotiations for the conclusion of a :-iui:iania-n-3v;i3S clearing agreement are 
at present in progress. ,. ■■ . 

The Yugoslavian CrOvemiTient actrng through the Privileged .Enport Cor.ipan^' has 
boon unr.blo to .naintain a rvcnqpcly ■ control ever the intor:;al .gale .of v;hcat aa-d ryo* 
This has resulted in heavy losses 'to thq Gcvorninont . To rer.ictiy . this .situation, 
a lav; -.vas published on .-.pril 5, 1&32, v;hich -.provides for the abolishi.K-nt cf nonopo- 
ly control over the i:itornal' sale of vhcat and rye, but specifics "that tho expert 
and import trade of all kinds of- v.-hoat, 'rye c'.nd •v;he.O'.t f.lc-nr sh..ll continue to be 
the exclusive right cf the State. The la-.; established a fix assessment to bo paid 
by cc;.:nercial mills in proportion to fcieir total grinding .c'.pacity .\/ithcut regard 
to t/ieir actual outirat. Small villcu-e GU3tci:;s mills v.lth n-. ■..xro than t-.;o stones 
do not pay this assessment. ' The irate of this assessment', for the entire m.onth cf 
April 1932 is 58 cents per bushel of grinding capc^ity, for mills having a total 
dailv grindin-r- ca-caoity of from 37 to 276 bushels, i- r r„ tote.l 'daily grindirg 
capacity cf from 367 to 3,674 bushDls, the assossm-jnt is gradually decreaseu from 
48 to 36 cents per bushel cf grinding capacity. Tno inccr-.e from tnis tax will oe 
used to cover losses that the Privileged Exijort Gom.-;any m.ay have in. corniection 
v;ith exports. The Qom-oany \;ill buy vnoat of all origins at a urdfcrm price of 77 
cents per bushel.' cj One half of the purchase price will be paic m cas.i anc. tno 
rcr.-.ainder in bonds of fixed i.vaturity. Tho Com.p-ony is required to_ liquidate all 
its Gngagei.ionts contracted on the basis of the former 1:;;; before Jeccmber 31, 1932. 
'Vheat received from farmers by cooperatives or other agents cf tho Com.pany "xider^ 
the former lav;, and v;hiGh has not yet been delivered to the Ccmiparj^', will bo paid 
at t'lG new price of 77 cents. Farmers v-hc do not v;::. t to accept this price for 
their '..-heat arc all-c-.;ed to tck:e it back. 

The xiustro-Yugcslavian commercial treaty will expire on Juno 30, 1932 aaid 
will be replacod by an open preferential tre.:.ty. ..ustria lias also recalled its 
clearing agrecm.ent" v;ith Yugoslavia. Kegotiaticns for tho conclusion of a new 
agreer:ont are scheduled for tho :-:iddlc cf April. 

a/ The standard grades for \;hich 77 cents can be paid varies bet\;een v/heat h.ving 
62 po-xids per bushel and 1 per cent admixture, and wh.eat -..-itl. 56 pounds per 
bushel. and 4 per cent foreig:i m:atter. 



WH-73 



-36- 



Table 16.- Wheat, including flour: Net imports into European 
countries, 1929-30, 1930-31 and July 1 to latest date 

1931-32 



Country 


; 

: 1929-30 


1930-31 


pre 1 in. : 

estimate 


Net import 


s reported 




; ; 




1931-32 


uly 


1 to 


1930-31 


1931-32 




:I.Iillion: 


Million; 


Million ' 






Million; 


Million 




rhushels 


bushels 


bus he Is 






bushels : 


bus hels 


TTnited ringdon . . 


: 

: 202 


" ' " " 

E21 


200-210 ; 


r.'ar. 


31 




171 




192 






84 


■ 37-44 


Mar. 


31 




57 




15 


■Belgiun . 


: 43 


45 


42-44 


Jan. 


31 




26 




29 






45 , 


66-73 


Feb. 


29 




21 




46 






35 


31-33 


Mar. 


31 




27 




24 






30 


22-26 


' Mar. 


31 




22 




12 






24 


22-26 


' .jan . 


31 




13 




13 


Irish i^ree vState 




19 




Feb. 


29 




13 




13 






18 


19-21 


T'ar. 


31 




15 




17 






15 


16-17 


' Feb. 


29 




10 




11 


Czechoslovakia . . 




15 


22-24 


Feb. 


29 




11 




14 






11 


15-18 


• Feb. 


29 




7 




13 






: 8 • 


8-9 


• r'^ir. 


31 




6 




7 


Finland 


: 6 


: 5 


4-5 


; Feb , 


29. 




4 




3 






: 5 


: 6-6 


: Mar. 


31 




5 




5 




:a/b/ 


:b/ - 4 


0-2 


F'ar. 


31 




- 3 




- 2 


Portugal 


: 6 


: 3 


2-4 


• Feb. 


29 




Q 




1 






: 2 


1-2 


Jan. 


31 




1 




1 








1-1 


Feb. 


29 




1 


a/ 








;a/b/ ^ 


: 4-7 


Jan. 


31 


•B/b/ 


'1/ 






328 


: 582 








■ 


508 




414 



Comioiled from official sources. 
a_/ Less than 500,000 bushels. 
h/ Net export. 



-37- 



■Tatle 17.- Unitod States: Imports and exports of v/heat including 
Hoar, stated periods 1930-31 and 1951-52 

"Jul:/ 



lter.i 



SX?Ci-?TS : 

Vi/liG at 

Flour in terms of v;heat 
Total . 
Ii,:?OHTS: (July - Mar - ) 

Y/lae at 

Floiir in terras of v;heat 

Total . 

JTET EXPOrtTS: 

V"ne at 

Flour in ter;.is of v;heat 

Total . 



■ luif 1, ■ i9^:a 

to 

__Apr_._3£,_19_32 

1 /JOG* lius ■iGljj 

32,651 
55,334 

"ir[,~9Gjr__ 

10,573 
1 



tc 



: May___2^J_9_31 _ 
" l", COO bushels 

Gl,907 
47,051 



10,_5w;4 

72,078 

25,333 



107,411 



108,968 
14,361 



14,856 



47 , 046 
47,_^56_ 

94,102 



Cor.voilGd from o'ifir^ial 'sources. 



Table 16.- ':!he 



it including; flour: Exports from principal exporting 
countries,' February - April, 1931 and 19p2 



Counti ^• 



United States . 
Canada .... 
..rgentina . . . 
British India . 
Australia . . . 

Russia a/ ■ 

DanrJDe oTSulgaria a/ 



Total . . 



Feb . 



J.231 _ 

" 1 ;ooo ' 

bushels 



1932 



1,000 

bushels 



7,995 



3,717 : 
12,163 : 11,417 
17,614 :a/iy,612 
231 :a/b/ 173 
17,734 :£A"y,804 
5,c00 : 1,080 
504 : 534 

57,693 : 53,745 



liar . 



^.pr. 



1931__ : 19_32 : 
T,000 T"i,oooV 
biish.els: bushels: 

4, 757: 3,554: 
15, 410 : 11,737: 
13, 411: a/29, 055: 
326 :V 0: 
17,684: a/21,230: 
912: 
1,12.- 



6,984: 
59 j 436: 



709: 



1931 

'"iVooo 

bushels 



7,106 
5,148 

17,609 
517 

20,254 
1 , 040 
1 , 1 3_5 

53, 590 



"ComprTc d ■Fi'o^~:Ti~i~i~cjid* ' t r "xLo "s our ccc. 
a/ Proli-r ■ -i .ry . , 
"b/ Sea trade onl;". 



a/ 



193^ 



1 , 000 

bush, els 

10,987 
8,653 
19,361 
0 

13,989 
376 
___1,104_ 

54,460 



-.38- 



Table 19 - United States: "Exports of wheat and wheat including 
flour, by weeks, 1930-51 and 1931-32 



— • - 

Date 


v/heat 


"heaT 


flour 


TVheat including flour 





1930-31 


•""1931-32 


~T930-31~' 


~Trr3T~:>2'~ 


1930-31 


1931-32 




1,000 


• 1,000 


1 , 000 


1,000 


1,000 


1, 000 




bus he Is 


bushels 


"'~;...rr^ls 


>>( rrol^ 


bushels 


bushels 


July 4- Jan. 2 


49 , 720 


■ 55,764 


5,576 


3, 659 


77,028 


72,963 


Feb. 6- reb.27 


87 


4,392 


507 


629 


2,469 


7,396 


Week ended , 














Mex . 5 


90 


■ 945 


124 • 


113 


673 


1,476 


12 


157 


726 


: 106 


132 


: 655 


1 , 346 


19 


197 


778 


9 7 


53 


653 


1,027 


26 


470 


1,335 


143 


; 93 


1,142 


1, 772 


Apr. 2 


193 


1,877 


82 


105 


578 


2,371 


9 


136 


1,743 


103 


88 


620 


.2, 157 


16 


239 


2, 704 


165 


209 


1,015 


5,686 


23 


? --1 




143 


■ 129 


3,293 


2,971 


• 30 


514 


2, 041 


. 136 


28 


1 , 153 


2,173 


May 7 


1 , 189 


1, 730 


106 


31 


1,687 ; 


1,876 



Compiled from "weekly report of Department of Commerce. 



Table 20.- 'vheat including flour; Shipments from principal ex- 
porting regions, specified dates, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



Date 


Argentina ■ • 


Australia 


: Danube 


: T'^crth America 


1«530-31 


1951-32 


1930-31 


1931-32 


1930-31 


1931-32 


■1930-31 


1931-3;-: 




1,000 
bushels 


1,000 : 
bushels- 


1,000 

bushels 


1,000 

bushels 


1, 000 
bushels 


: 1,000 
rbushels 


1,000 

bushels 


• 1,000 
bushels 


July 4-jan. 2 


24,376 


• 40,560- 


38,864 


53,192 


10 , 720 


31,960 


211,936 


: 173,288 


Feb. 6 -Feb. 27 


16,524 


' 17,612 




19,804 


384 


664 


20, 760 


21,095 


Week ended 














Mar. 5 


4,29 6 


6 , 544 


3,024 


4,876 


' , 176 


144 


5,080 


4,536 


Ife 


3,168 


7,108 


5 , 304 


5,120 


160: 


. 528 


, 4,600 


4 , 736 


19 


3,348 


7,016 


5 , 256 


4,320 


: 16 


, .72 


4,728 


4,040 


26 


3 , 804 


4,352 


5,096: 


3, 020 


352- 


176 


4,400 


5,520 


Apr. 2 


3 , 104 : 


4,236 


5 , 004 : 


3 , 044 


200 


400 


• . 4,184: 


6,096 


c 


3,456. 


5,080 


3,840 


. 3,936 


. 256 


88. 


3,864: 


4,856 


16 ....... 


4, 672 


4,528 


3, 756- 


3,144 


: 616 


208 


5,032: 


7 , 304 


23 . 


3, 712 


: 4,432 


5,604 


3,176 


64 


320 


4,432 


7,520 


30 




5,321 


3, 784 


3 , 733 


: 200 


488 


7,520 


7 , 626 


May 7 


3,740 


4,435 


4,224- 


5,481 


216' 


592 


10,624 


8,962 



Compiled from official and trade sources. 



-39- 



Table 21. 



Fheat including flour: l.Tovenent from principal export- 
ing countries, stated poriods 



Country- 



United States 
Canada . . . 
Argentina 
Australia 
Russia ... 
Hungary . . 
Yugoslavia 
Rumania . . 
Bulgaria . 
British India (Lfrs) 
Total 



North America b/ 



Total 



shipments as given by current trcide sources 
T'ectks ending 



United stf 

Argentina 

Australia 



Danube &, '^ulgaria d/ 



Total f/ 

Total Eur'ope^.m ship- : 

iiients b/ 

Total ex-European 



• 




r]xports ; 


s given 


by official sources 






Total 




: . July 1 to date shown 






tin op o n 


; ly .2y -ou 


: 19oO-ol 


: 1929 -30 :1930-51 : 1931-32 


Date 


: X , UUU 


: 1,000 


: 1,000 


1,000 : 


1,000 : 1,000 






' L)usne±s 


: bushels 


: bushels 


:bushels : 


bushels ;bushels 






. XuO , oo / 


; XOO , C-iC 


: 131 , coo 


•123,124: 


: 

102,309 : 107, 000 


liar. 


31 




. 1 Q . 1 O 1 T 
: ICS ir , dlCi 


: 2o7 , 265 


146 , 488 : 


212, 688:163,459 


Apr. 


30 




O ^ PC 

101,265 


\ 1^0, 510 


142, 829 : 


82, 858:11^,878 


Apr. 


50 


. -LW f , rOD 


^ T O r> <"» 

: ol,b92 


: 143 , 295 


29,476 : 


54,769: 73,P72 


Jan. 


51 






: ilO, 909 ; 










: 23,61;8 


«-'X J XiJ 




12,111: 


6,657: 10,8fi9 


Jan. 


31 


: 7,919 


23,593 


: 4,930: 


19,767: 


5,156: 11, ere 


Jan . 


31 


: 1,653: 


2,560 


: 14,792: 


^98: 


11,356; 32,731 


Dec. 


31 


: 760: 


96 


: 5,041: 


72: 


1,592: 7,320: 


Jan. 


31 


: 5,716: 


6 , 798 


: 10,197: 


5,61P: 


8, 4 79; a/2, 268: 


Feb. 


29 




632,464 


•827, 000: 


477,984: 


485,866:520,395: 





July 1 to may 7 



1929-30 


: 1930-31 










(Rev. ) 


: (Prol. ) 


Apr. 23 


'.Apr. 30 ; 


ray 7 '1930-51 


\ 1931-32 


1,000 


: 1,000 


1,000 


; 1,000 ; 


1,000 ; 1,000 


• 1,000 


bushels 


; bushels: 


bushe Is 


: bushels : 


bushels:bushcl3 


:bushels 


317,248 


:367, 768; 


7,520 


: 7,626; 


8,y62;511,448 


; 277,340 


19 3, "380 


:270,168: 


4, 770 


: 2,893; 


5,589:227,908 


: T64,383 


l-x9,758 


:132,276: 


2,971 


• 2,173; 


1,876:111,485 


. 119,856 


i64,9~84 


: 118, 712: 


4,432" 


5,321: 


4,435; 67,736 


• 125,300 


64,376 


1-.4,512: 


3,176 


3, 733; 


5,481:119,388 


135,506 


5,672 


: 92,520: 


224 


0: 


0; 88,456; 


71,664 


18,384 


15,128: 


320. 


488; 


5?2; 13,512 


37,576 


e/1,936 


5,808; 


0; 


0; 


0; 5,728; 


616 


572,600 


7-4 , 448 : 


~ 15', 672: 


17,168; 


19,470:626,268; 




'•±76,096; 


614,488: 


12,600; 


o , / *o ; 


— ; 503, 400: 


486,572 


138,6881 


172,600: 


3,776 ; 


2,340: 


— ; 141, 760: 


168,084 



a/ see Tr-do only, Broomhall't, Corn Trade'News", oT port William, Port 

Arti.ur, Vancouver and Prince Rupert, d/ Black sea shipments only. a ' Net 
imports 1929-30 wore 1,847,8-^3 bucholsT for 1930-31 wore 420,099 bush^Ts. 
!_/ Total of trade figures includes Novhh Am.r.i.-a as repovtad by Brooinhall ' s . 



v7H-7o 



CCHTZIITS 



PAG3 



1 


- 




1 - 


■7 




- 




2 - 


6 


3 


- 




7 - 


10 


/I 


- 




11 - 


12 


5 




Gihe QvontiiieiitGl •EijrDpean.rWhent- Market Situr^tion DuriiTG A^ril. 


13 




6 


- 




14 - 


16 


7 


- 


Sv.ctir3i-i 0... Cr>:-j CDViditions'. 


15 - 


20 


8 


- 


;.--.rl:Gt ;Sectioi':.. . - . -i-- . _ . . .... . .' • . . . . 


.el - 


25 


9 


- 


D:rLube Basin v.heat daring iiorch. onci April . . . .■ ..-.^ ^ 


26 - 


27 


10 


- 


Dcr.v.be Basin- ^.arkets- ojid Prices. . •—. ... ..• •■ 


•27 - 


29 


11 


- 


i:'inter'"V::.oat Seeding for the .1932 'Crop. '» • 


•oc 








Au-..^i.a.ji^u.ej.x 1/ 'vi^ioer i'lii^pt 


oIj - 


oi 


13 




Sprinii-'--'ivSeat scedin. for harvest, in 1952. ........ ■.- •. 


31" ■- 


•32 


14 




Developments in Sdvernnent Aid. . . . . . 


r.p. 


TO 


TABLES • " ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ . ■ ■ ' ■ \ ■ . , • • . . ■ • 






"1 




■ •n:; t:- ■ irrter 'acrea.^e i.;Li specified countries ■. . • . ■. • . . . 


5 




p 




■ 'Whe.-t:' .ClDsiii^- pri'ces of Hay -futures- at stated markets. ; 






•x 
o 




.?lie.: t:.'.. v. eiu,ht£d- averr.-j'e cash prices at str ted aiarkets ' .1 • . . 


S 




'± 




v;lie,'. t: Av:.ra,-;e price per. bushel 'of parcels of specif led 










, descriptions c.i.f. at Liverpool, specified pcrio'^s . . . . 


•o 




o 






10 




D 




•.ihcat: • Supplies available for export and carry -.over -in the 










four ■ principal exporting,; c rantries, United Ki-nti'dc.iu. port stocks & 








stocks afloat -for United Kinjdo;i, Continent and orders . . 


12 








Price per bush-el of d'jnie.stic v/heat. .at specif ied '!:ia,rkets' .' . . 


' 14 




o 
O 




Continent:! -Europe.a-i stocJ-s of wheat, the middle of' Harch, 












' ' 15, 




y 




-'he.at end v/heat flour shipi.ients to the Continent, stated' 












'l5 




10 




-heat and whe.at flour shipraents. to Europe, stated periods . . 


15. 




ii 




. Grenaany: Price per bo.shel-of d;')i'ie3tic ^Uieat and' rye at ' ' _ 










specified iriarxets, ilarch 16 -'i'-xvy 11, -1952 ..... . '•■ • ... 






\z 




Price p^r bushel .for 'vheat f of .'corapafo.bl-t t^'rades 'at Budapest, 










l:hvi-Ss.d, by months . . . ■. . . . ■ 






13 




■'/inter v/hea'b: Area--sown ih the Drjnube Ba,si-n in the fall of 












■> -"1 




l-l- 




vJheat : AbaJndpn'aent ..in Hunyary on-d YUoOsLovia. . '. . ". .. . . . 


30 




15 




Sprii.^, \7heat: Acreno'e 'plriited Jin Da;iube Basin .?,nd in H!uiiinih, 










•■ co-.'.'.pare-d v.ltli; all -vheat, o-'.nual ■ 1924 to 1931. . . . '.' . . '." 


32 




16 




T-'roat, including fl^ur:. Net- i: -ports into Europer'U countries .. 


. 36 




17 




Unite6. States: Irapor.ts piid.exports of '/heat including flour, 












37 




IS 




'..'heat i-icluding flour: ExjDorts fron principal expcrting 












37 




19 




United States: Exports of v/her.t a:id v/hcat i'ncluding flour, 












35 




20 




..'heat including flour: Shipmerits 'fror.! principal exporting 












28 




21 




./hert including flour: ■•■oveaient frora principal exoorting 












39 





^ .-^ Bureau of Agrictilt\i-ral ii]conomios 

' ^ ' Washinc^tbn 

V/OHI.D \TO:iiiVT PROSPj]CT3 
Summary 



L I B R ' 

r< k£ G .c i V i ^' 



After a promising improvement during the first three weeks of Mav the 
wheat market mot with a reversal and declined rapidl;^ during the last week of May 
and dvjring earl^" Jime. The decline was apparently the result of a combination 
of factors. Associated v/ith the decline were the favorable outlook for the spring 
wheat crops of the U:iit3d Stn.tos and Canada, a general weakness of speculative 
markets which v/as shared by most comi-aodit ies and securities alike, the prospect 
of an increased carry-over in the United States as the new crop comes to market, 
and the tendency for European countries to ti;_,Iiten their restrictions on imports 
in anticipation of the harvest of their ovm new crops of v/hoat. 

For the world as a whole, smaller wheat supplies cxe in prospect for the 
next few months than v/erc available during the corresponding period of last year. 
It novif seems likely that proauctior. of wheat in t.\c northern Hemisphere ( excl'ading 
Russia aaad China) will bo about 200 million bushels smaller than that of last 
2"ear, and that the July 1 carry-over in the principal exporting countries 
together with the United Kingdom, port stocks and '.iicjitities afloat v/ill be 
sm.aller than those of last year by about 15 million bushels. 

Tne United States is about to enter the new crop ;ear with the prospect 
of a winter wheat crop about ',577 million bushels smaller than that of last 2"ear. 
partially off cott in^'^; this decror.so will bo an ir-croasc of about 40 million 
bushels in the July 1 carry-over, and cji increase of an undetermined rmount in 
the spring wheat crop. The v/intor wh^^at crop is nov; esti.',.ated at -.11 million 
bushels ojid the carry-over of domestic v/hoat in the United States as of July 1 
appears likely to bo about 360 million bushels c.mparod vath 31S million last year. 



Lc-Dt ycr.r's crop of all spring wheat in the United States totalled only 
105 million liushols duo to cxtrGmcly lov; yields and heavy ahandonmont of spring 
v;hoat. This year the Juno 1 condition of all spring \7heo.t is reported as 84.5 
per cent of normal compcjrod v/ith a condition of 67.9 per cent a year ago and a 
lO-year average condition of 86.8 per cent. In the past, how-Gvor, the June 1 
condition of spring wheat in the United States has given very little indication 
of the suhsequent yield so that ahout the best tho.t can be said at the present 
time is that the spring wheat crop of 1932 is likely to have a much more nearly 
average yield than that of last year. Average yields this yero- would result 
in a spring wheat crop of about 250 million bushels or nearly 150 million 
bushels larger than was produced in 1931. Assuming, then, that spring wheat 
yields are likely to be about average, present indications would suggest thc± 
total wheat supplies of the United States for the 193£-33 crop ycrx may be about 
200 million bushels smaller than those of the past year. 

In Canada, where the great bulk of the crop is spring v/heat, the general 
situation is quite similar to that in the spring wheat area of the United States. 
The condition of all wheat cs of May 31 in Canada is reported to be 93 per cent 
of the long-time average, but in Canada, as in the United States, the spring 
wheat condition as of May 31 has, in the past twenty years, given no significrjit 
indication of the subseqvient yield of the crop. Taking into account v/oather 
conditions to date, however, it seems reasonable to assuiao that Crjiadian yields 
may be slightly above average and that the total crop in tliat country may amount 
to somewhere in the vicinity of 475 million bushels compared with 304 million 
harvested in 1951. In the event of a yield in Can--;.da and the United States 
such as suggested r.bove, the total North American crop would be approximately 
100 million bushels smaller than that of 1931. 



;VH-74 



-3- 



In Evxope, as well as in ITorth America, there are indications of a 
somewhat smaller prodv.ction of wheat than that of la^t year. For some time past 
there have "been indications of a smaller production in the surplus producing 
countries of the Danube Basin. Acreage is apparently somev/hat smaller for Eiirope 
as a whole, and recent reports indicate that early June v/eather has "been distinctly 
mif avorable for the crops of v;estern Europe. Cold wet weather will have a 
tendency to reduce the final yield and postpone harvest. 

Altogether prospects are that v/orld wncat supplies available dm-ing the 
surnjner and fall months will be distintly smaller than they were during the 
corresponding period of last year. In addition to a smaller carry-over and a 
smaller- crop in the Northern Hemisphere outside Prussia and China, there are 
indicatior; pointing to a smaller volume ol shipments irOi:i Russia during the 
summer and fall months. 

Prices^ 

Cash prices of most wheat in the United States averaged lower during Hay 
than in the preceding month. Through the first three v;eeks of May, prices rose 
slightly from the low level they had reached iato in April but in the last few 
da2?-s of May and the first three days of J-ane there was a drastic decline v/hich 
brought prices to the lowest level readied since last October. Future prices 
at Liverpool showed an upward movojmont durin;;; t..j north of May, and 

declined diAring the la?t few days of May and the first x.eeh of June. The rise 
of futures prices at Chicago shortly af-;-er the m.iddle of May was much greater 
than the rise at Liverpool, as was also tno subsacuont decline. Jul^^ futures 
on June 4 at Liverpool v;ere 5 cents above Chicago compared with a spread of 
2 cents on I Taj' 7, 

The United States average farm price as of May 15 was 42.4 cents per 
bushel compared with 4«5.1 cents a montn previous ard 59.9 for May 1931. At 
Minneapolis, No, 1 Darlc Northern Spring an I No, 2 A:'.:ber Dur-am declined from 
averages of 73.2 and 71. .5 cents per bushel respectively in April to 71.7 and 
67,5 cents per buchel for May. At Ct. Lciis, No. 2 Pod Winter declined from 
57.0 to 55. S cents per bushel. At Kansas City, on the other hand. No. 2 Hard 
V/int'-^r was slightly higher, averaging 53.3 cents in May compared with 53.2 
cents in the pre\;-ious month. 

Cash prices at the principal United States markets advanced during the 
first three v/eeks of May, making an especially rapid advance in the latter 
part of the third week, and then reaching a high point early in the fourth week. 



1^-74 



-4- 



Lator in the fourth v;eek of Kay and during the first v/eck of June there was a 
rapid decline. ITo. 2 Hard Winter at Kansas City advanced from an average of 
51 cents for the v/oek ended May 6 to 57 cents for the v/cok ended May 27 and 
subsequently declined to 53 cents for the v/eek ended Jui'.e 3. llo. 1 Dark 
Northern Spring advanced from 59 to 74 cents during May and declined to an 
average of 69 cents for the v/eek ended June 3. Other classes and grades of 
wheat followed a similar course. All classes and grades at 6 markets advaiaced 
from 57 cents for the week ended May 6 to 64 cents for the week ended May 27, 
and siihsequently declined to an average of 59 cents for the week ended June 3. 

The decline in wheat prices during the last few. days of May and early 
part of June v/as apparently the rosalt of a comhination of unfavorable factors. 
Associated with the decline were the favorable outlook for the spring v/heat 
crops of the United States and Canada, a general weakness of speculative 
markets which vms shared by commodities and securities alike, the prospect of 
an increased carry-over in the United States as the nev; crop comes to m.arket, 
and the tendency for European countries to tighten their restrictions on 
i'-aports in anticipation of the harvest ol their own new crops of v/heat. The 
accumulating evidence that the United States carrji^-over will be larger than the 
record carry-over of last jccx and the prospect that a larger proportion of the 
carry-over will be in the hands of the trade than was expected earlier in the 
season, ho.ve had a tendency to weaken the United Strtes market for the past 
three or four months. This has tended especially to v/ecJcen the cash market 
in the United States, but also to weaken Chicago Futures relative to Liverpool. 
This reflects the prospective shortness of the v/inter wheat crop as v/ell as 
the fact -chat the Grain Stabilization Corporation still holds sufficient v/heat 
to be an important factor in the market, especially the export market. 

The new v/heat crop will start moving to market v/ithin the next few days 
but probably will not move in volume until the first tv/o weeks of July. The ^ 
earliest movem.ent v/ill be from Texas and Oklahoma... Ov/ing to the short crop in 
those States this year and the low level of v/heat prices, the earlier movement 
will probably be below average. 

Reports of stocks of all grain in store at southv/ect markets indicate 
that storage space in terminal elevators will be adequate to hcaidle the 
anticipated movement without congestion. In recent years when there was 
congestion at terminal markets cash prices v/ce relatively lov/er than futures. 

At Winnipeg, ITo. 3 Manitoba Northern advanced from an average of 47.9 
cents for the first \/eek of May to 49.9 cents for the v;eek ended May 27, At 
the Liverpool market ITo. 3 Manitoba Northern advanced about 1 cent per bushel 
during the first three weekj of May, averaging 62 cents for the week ended 
May 20. Rosafe advanced from 55 bo 60 cents during the same period. 

ITcar futures at Suenos Aires during May advanced from 47.7 cents to 
an average of 50.1 cunts. Domestic wheat at Berlin advamced during the 
first three v/ecks of May and dropped off sharply dvjring the last week of the 
month. At Paris domestic wheat advanced from cj. average of r;.1.82 for the v/eck 
ended May 6 to an average of ,;>1.87 for the week ended June 3. Milan prices 
of domestic v/heat advrn.ced 2 cents during the first week of May, then declined 
11 cents per bushel during the following four v/eeks, averaging $1.64 for the 
v/eek ended Jime 3. The strength in dom.estic v/heat -or: cos in these markets during 
t'^e ear]y ^art of May can bo attributed in part to shortage of supplies and slow 
fra-m m.arketin-3. The decline in Italy was affected by changes in milling quota ^ 
and by declines in prices of foreign v/hcats, M 



WH-74 



-5- 



Table 1. -Wheat: Price per bushel at specified markets, Mar. 4, 1932- 

June 10, 1932 





Kansas : 


Minne- 


:".'Vinni- : 


Buenos 


Vifeek : 


City : 


apolis 


: peg : 


Aires 


ended : 


a/ : 




: _c/ : 
• * 







C e nt s : 


Gents 


: Cents : 


Cents 


Mar. 4. . . : 


52.4 


75.4 


• ' 

: 50.7 : 


47.8 


11. . . : 


52,9 


75.5 


: 52,1 ■ 


48. <i 


18.. .: 


51.6 


73.1 


^i9.9 ; 


4o . 1 


25. . . . 


46.6 


67.1 


: 46.5 


46.0 


Apr. 1... 


47.7 


; 66.4 


: 46,9 


40 . c5 


8. . . 


. 51.1 


; 71.9 


: 48 » 8 


; 46.9 


15. . . 


: 54.6 


74.9 


: 51.1 


48.0 


22. . . 


: 54.2 


: 73.2 


50 . 6 


; ^8.3 


29. . . 


: 52.3 


: 72.6 


: 48.5 


: 47.5 


May 6 . . . 


: 51.1 


: 68.9 


: 47,9 


: 47o4 


13 ... 


: 52.5 


: 69 ,4 


: 49.1 


: 48,3 


20 ... 




: 71.0 


: 49.5 


: 50.0 


27 ... 


: 56.6 


: 74.3 


: 49.9 


: 50.1 


June 3 . . . 


: 53.1 


: 69,0 


: 48.8 


: 50.4 


10. . . 


: 47.5 


: 64.8 


: 43.0 


: 48.1 



Liver- 
pool 



C ents 

62.8 
68.4 
61.5 
60.7 
58.9 
65.0 
65.1 
62,9 
62.1 
60.7 
61.2 
63.7 



reat : 








Britain: 


Berlin : 


ir^driC • 




f/ : 


. z/. • 




B/ 


Cents : 


Cento . 


O v-» ♦ 

Oents . 




55,4 : 


159 ; 


T OR 


1 7P 

JL f fcj 


59.3 : 


159 ; 


X f D . 


1 7P 

J- { CJ 


59,1 : 


163 . 


X l\) • 


1 70 

_L r W 


o9.9 


iDl . 




1 70 


61,6 


166 . 


XoO 


' 1 F)7 


60 ,8 


lo / 


■ XC't 




59.9 


16 J 




1 (^7 


GO. 5 


; 169 


i XcO 




, 58.9 


: 170 


: 179 


: 171 


59.8 


: ' 177 


: 182 


: 173 


59.8. 


: 178 


: 182 


: 175 


60.7. 


: 179 


: 184 


: 174 


61.8 


: 17l' 


: 186 


: 170 




: 173 


: 187 


: 164 



Prir^es are averages of daily prices for weeks ending Friday except as 
follov7s: Great Britain prices of home grown wheat are averages for the week 
ending Saturday. Berlin, Paris, and Milan prices are Wednesday quotations. 
Prices at Y/innipeg, Buenos Aires and Liverpool are converted to. United States 
money at the current rates of exchange beginning with the week ended September 
25. Prices at Berlin, Paris and Milan are converted at the current rates 
beginning September 2, 

a./ No, 2 Hard Vv inter, 

b/ No. 1 Dark Northern Spring. 

qJ No. 3 Miinitoba Northern, 

d/ Near futures, 

ej All sales of imported parcels, 

f/ Home grown wheat in England and 'Vales. 

g/ Domestic, 



7]H-74 



-5- 



Table 2.-VIhetLt: Average price per bushel of parcels of specified 
description c.i.f, at Liverpool, specified periods 1930-1932 



i eri 00. 


:No<, 3 Manitoba Nortliern 


: Rosafe 


: 1930-31 


: 193i.-32 ■ 


: . 1930-31 


: 1931-32 




Gents 


Csnts 


: , Cents 


: Cents 






: . ecT 


:. 103. 


: ' 57 






' 60 


: ' 1C7 


: ■' 55 






:': 58 


:. 86 


: ' 54 


Oct 




: 59 


: 82 


: ■ 54 






: - . 68 


: 76, 


: ■ 63 






: . 60 


: 68 


■ 54 • 






; . 62 


61 


: ■ 52 






64 


63. . ■ . 


55 






66 


61' 


■ ■ 57 






. G5 


64 ; 


• • 57 








"65 




y/eek ended 








i 






67 ; 


62 : 


58 ■ 






.69 : 


62 : 


• 59 






67 ; 


; 62 : 


• • -58 






63 


; 60 


• • 55 






. .■ 64 : 


59 : 


■ ■ 55 






. ' . 65 : 


61 : 


• -56 


15 




, ' ■ 65 : 


g4 : 


58 






65 : 


67 : 


58 






63 : 


bo : 


57. 


May 6 




61 : 


63 : 


56 






62 : 


66- : 


59 






62 


65 ' : 


6C 








63 : 










61 : 





Compiled from Broorahall's Daily Corn Trade News. 



Table 3.-V/heat: \/eighted average cash prices at stated markets, by weeks, 

xMar. 4- Jut- 3 10, 1931 and 1932 





All classes 


No. 2 


Hard 


:No. 1 


Dk. 


: No. 2 


: No. 2 


: V/estern 


Week : 


and grcides ' 


Winter 


: No. Spring 


: Ambe r 


Durum 


:Red Winter 


: '.vhite 


ended . 


6 markets 


Kansas City 


:Minneapolis 


: Minneapolis 


: St, Louis 


: Secittle a/ 




1931 


1932 


1931 


1952 


1931 


1952 


1931 


:1932 


1931 


:1932 


:1931 


1932 




Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


Cents 


•Cents 


; Cents 


•Cents 


:Cehts' 


: Cents 


; Cents 


Mar. 4 


71 


5Q 


70 


: 52 


75 


75 


71 


: 85 


78 


: 57 • 


: 66 


: 63 


11 


71 


59 


> 70 


53 


75 


• 76 


71 


• 81 


79 


: ■ 56 ■ 


: 66 


. 63 


18 


71 


58 


70 


52 


76 


73 


72 


79 


78 


> 55 


66 


: 60 


25 


. 72 


56 


• 71 


: 47 


77 


: 67 


72 


: 74 


79 




: 66 


: 57 


Apr. 1 


: 74 


57 


72 


: 48 


: 79 


66 


75 


72 


79 


. 52 


67 


58 


8 


74 


58 


75 


51 


79 


72 


72 


75 


80 


: 56 


: 68 


63 


15 


75 


. 62 


: 74 


: 55 , 


30 


. 75 


: 75 


76 


80 


. 58 


: 68 


67 


22 


: 74 


61 


73 


54 


80 


: 73 


. 74 


73 


80 


57 


; 69 


68 


29 


75 


60 


73 


52 


80 


■ 73 


73 


; 66 


79 


56 


69 


67 


May 5 


76 


57 . 


73 


51 


82 


69 


76 


65 


80 


53 


69 . 


66 


13 


. 76 • 


58 


73 


52 . 


84 


69 • 


75 


68 : 


SO 


54 


• 70 : 


66 


20 


75 


61 


: 73 


53 


31 


71 


77 : 


68 : 


82 


55 , 


70 : 


65 


27 


• 75 


64 


73 . 


57 : 


81 


74 : 


77 


69 : 


79 


58 . 


70 : 


65 


June 3 


; 71 


: 59 


73 


53 


75 


69 : 


69 


64 : 


76 : 


54 : 


62 ; 


60 


10 


. 68 


55 


73 


48 


75 : 


65 : 


62 • 


56 : 


74 ■ 


50 : 


58 : 





a/ Weekly average of daily cash quotc-.tions basis No, 1 sacked 30 days delivery. 



Table 4. -Wheat." Closing prices of July futures, specified dates, 

1931 cjid 1932 



Date 


1 Chic 


aPO 


: Kansas 
: City 


[Minneapolis [ 


vVinnipeg-. 


; Liverpool 
4 a/ 


: Buenos 

Aii'es b/ 


:1931 : 


1932 


: 1931 


ay3_2_ 




^932_^ 


1931 


_|_1932 


:1931 


:1932 


:193i 


:1932 




:Centt:-: 


Cents 


:C^irts 


: Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents : 


Cents 


: Cent 


3 : Cents 


: Cents 


:Cent.-; 


: Cents 


Fob. 6 


I • 

: 57 : 


59 


: 61 


; 50 


: 73 


: ; 

: 67 : 


6'' 


; 

: 56 


: 65 


: 57 


: 


; _ 


13 


: 69 : 


62 


: 63 


: 53 


: 73 


: 70 : 


65 


: 59 


: 65 


: 60 


; _ 


; 


20 


68 : 


53 


: 62 


: 5^x 


: 72 


: 69 : 


65 


: 60 


: 67 


: 63 


• _ 


• _ 


27 


: 64 : 


63 


: 58 


: 55 


: 68 


: 69 : 


61 


: 61 


: . 65 


: 63. 


:c_/ 52 


: c/49 


Mar.i: 


. 64 : 


63 


58 


:. 55 


; 69 


: 69 : 


61 


: 62 


: 64 


61 


:_c/ 40 


: C;''48 


12 


63 : 


63 


. 


• 54 


68 


69 : 


cO 


: 61 


: 64 


: 61 


:c/ 50 


: _c/49 


19 


62 : 


56 


56 


; 48 


68; 


• 62 : 


60 


: 56 


: 64 


: 58 


:c/ 40 


: d/-i7 


26 


60 : 


55 


53 


47 . 


67 


58 : 


59 


: , ■ 55 


: 63 


:e/57 


:d/ 47 


:d/f/46 


Apr . 2; 


63 : 


59 • 


56 


51 . 


e/68 : 


63 : 


e/58 


: 58 


:e/63 


• 59 


: 0^/48 


:d/ 48 


9: 


63 : 


59 : 


56 : 


51 : 


72 . 


63 : 


62 


: 58 


: 64 


61 


:d/ 48 


: d/ 48 


16: 


65 : 


62 : 


58 : 




73 i 


65 : 


65 


: 59 


: 69 


62 


:d/ 51 


:d/ 49 


23: 


60 : 


59 : 


53 : 


52 : 


72 : 


63 : 


60 


: 58 


: 66 


60 


:d/ 49 


:d/ 48 


50: 


64 : 


58 : 


. 57 : 


51 : 


74 : 


62 : 


63 


; 56 


: 66 . 


58 


:d/ 49 


d/ 48 


May 7: 


64 : 


57 : 


57 : 


51 : 


72 : 


61 : 


63 


: 56 


: 68 : 


59 


:d/ 48 


d/ 47 


14: 


60 : 


55 : 


54 : 


50 : 


70 : 


60 : 


61 


56 


: 66 : 


59 


:d/ 48- 


50 


21: 


59 : 


on : 


52 : 


55 : 


68 : 


64 : 


59 


56 


: . 64 ; 


61 


:d/ 48: 


50 


28: 


60 : 


59 : 


54 : 


54 : 


68 : 


63 : 


60 


56 


: 63 : 


62 


:"£/ 46. 


50 


June4: 


59 : 


54 : 


53 : 


-±8 : 


66 : 


59 : 


63 . 


50 


: 65 : 


59 


:£/ 49: 


50 


11: 


58 : 


51 : 


52 : 


46 : 


67 : 


55 : 


62 ; 


48 


: 63 : 

4 • 


54 : 


47: 


45 



a/ Conversions in 1932 o.t noon buying rc^te of e^cehcinge, 1931 at pur. 

b/ Prices are of day previous to other prices, 

c/ May futures, 

d/ June fatui'es. 

e/ Previous Thursday's price, , ^ . ■ 

f/ Previous v7cdnesday's price. 

_g/ August futures. 



-8- 



Table S.-vVhe-it; World supply, price ^nd disuppe .Jc-ince , 1921-22 

to 1931-32 



Producti on 



Year 




: United 










All 


other. 


V/orld 






• States 


: C'_.nada 


: Argentina 


:ii.ustrcilia 


: Europe a/ 




b/ 


produc- 




















tion b/ 






: Million 


: Million 


: Million 


: Million 


: Million 




Million 


Million 


1921-22 




: bushels 


: bushels 


: bushels 


: bushels 


: bushels 




bushels 


bushels 


* • • 


: S19 


: 301 


: 191 


: 129 


: ~i , 22~ 




515 


5,177 


1922-23 


• • 


: 847 


: 400 


: . 196 


: 109 






607 


3,203 


1923-24 


• • • 


: 760 


: 474 


: . 248 


: 125 


: 1,257 




655 


3,519 


1924-25 


• • • 


840 


: 262 


: 191 


: 165 


; 1,058 ■ 




610 


3,126 


1925-26 


• • • 


: 669 


395 


: 191 


: 115 


: 1,397 . 




613 


3,380 


1926-27 




834 


: 407 


: ' 230 


: 161 


: 1,216 






648 


3,496 


1927-28 


• • • 


875 


: 480 


: ■ 282 


: 118 


: 1,275 




641 


3,671 


1928-29 


• • • 


926 


567 


: 349 


: 160 


: 1,410 




599 


4,011 


1929-30 c/. 


813 


: 305 


: 163 


: 127 


: 1,450 . 






703 


. 3,561 


1930-31 




858 


421 


I 232 


: 213 


: 1,362 






726 


. 3,812 


1931-32 0/.: 


892 


304 


226 


: 180 


: 1,442 




724 


3,768 








Stocks 






: jiver age 


price per bushel 






Shipments: 


accounted 


: Totul 


: Total 








: No, 


2 Hard 






from 


for 


supply 


: disup- 


: British pur- 


: Winter tit 






Russia : 


Jul3r 1, 




: pe^ ranee 


: eels (simple 


.•Kiunsas City 








1 






: avero^ge 


) 


: (weighted 




















: average) 






Million : 


Million 


Million 


Million 
















bushels : 


bushels i 


bushels 


bushels 


: Cents 




; Cents 


1921-22 


• • • • 


e/ : 


309 : 


3,466 


3,194 










120 


1922-23 


• • • 1 


7 : 


292 : 


3,502 : 


3,190 


: 136 






113 


1923-24 


• • • 4 


21 : 


312 : 


3,852 J 


5,503 : 


121 






1C5 


1924-25 


• • • 1 


1/ : 


349 : 


3,475 


3,198 


179 






135 


1925-26 


• « • • 


27 ; 


277 : 


3 , 684 : 


3,405 ; 


170 






163 


1926-27 


• • • • 


49 : 


279 : 


3,824 : 


3,484 : 


164 






135 


1927-28 


• • • a 


5 : 


340 : 


4,016 : 


3 , 583 : 


154 








135 1 


1928-29 




U : 


433 : 


4,^44 : 


3,828 ; 


129 






112 ^ 


1929-30i 




7 : 


616 : 


4 , 184 : 


3,625 : 


131 








120 


1930-31 


c/.: 


111 : 


559 : 


4,482 : 


3,852 : 


80 








76 ^ 


1931-32 


c/.: 


g/ 72 : 


(630) : 


4,470 : 















^a/ Excludes Russia, 

b/ Excludes Russia -and China, 

c/ Prel minary . 

d/ Estimates of stocks represents carry-over in tlie United States and 



supplies available for export and Ccirry-over in ^o-gcntina, Australia 
and Canada, the United Kingdom port stocks and supplies aflocit. 

e/ Not available. 

f/ Less than 500,000 bushels. 

_g/ To June 4, 1932. 



-9- 



V/orld Carri'--over Prospects 

At present, it appears that the acco'Oi.ted for s\rnplies of wheat as of 
July 1 including carrj--ovcr in the United Steites and Canada as of that date, 
remaining exportahle surpluses in Argentina and Australia, United Kincdom 
port stocks, and quantities afloat, will he somev/hat sraaller than they \vere a 
^^ear earlier. The reduction, as indicated h^ the accompanying tahle, may 
amount to ahout 15 million hushels. The final figures for the. 'carry-over in 
the ahove positions, will depend in part upon the consumption of wheat hetv/een 
now and July 1. It will also depend upon the exact position of certain stocks, 
that is upon how much of the supplies now in exportin- countries will reraain 
there, and how much will have heen forwarded to positions in Europe where it is 
not included in the available data concerning stocks. 

In the United States the carry-over of domestic vmeat as of Jaly 1 may 
he from 6 to 7 per cent larger than that of a year earlier whereas wc3id carry- 
over this year may he from 2 to / per cent smaller than last year. 

Supplies availahle for export and carry-over in the United States on 
June 1 were ahout 40 million hushels ahove tnose of a ear earlier. If exports 
during June are average, the carry-over will prohahly he around 360 million 
hushels. This figiire includes an estimate of 10 million hushels held hy mills 
for others. This item, amounting to ahout 20 millior hushels, was included 
in the 319 million hushel carr;^-over of July 1, 1931 hut was not incladed in 
the carr3'"-over of previous years. 

In Canada it seems likely that there will he a considerahle reduction 
in the ouantities of Canadian grov.Ti wheat remaining in that comitry as of 
July 1. The apparent erportahle surplus in Canada as of June 1 amounted to 
151 million hushels this year as compared with 170 million last yetr. June 
exports last year reduced the latter figure to 148 million as of July 1 and it 
seems likely that June exports this year will reduce remaining supplies to 
ahout 130 million hushels. 

It is not expected that there will he very much change in the amount of 
Canadian wheat stored in the United States or of United States wheat stored in 
Canada. It is likely, however, that there will ho some reduction in stocks of 
United States grown wheat in Canada. Last year they were \uiusually high hecause 
of scanty storage space in the United States, and vdth loss pressure on storage 
space in evidence this year, it is expected that less United States grown wheat 
will ho stored in Canada. 

Argentina and Australia also appear likely to have much smaller remaining 
exportahle su'.^plios on July 1 this year than last year. Remaining supplies as 
of J^mc 1 in Argentina air.ounted to 52 million hushels compared with 74 million 
a year earlier, and it seems likely that July 1 supplies may amount to ahout ^ 
38 million hushels this year compared v/ith 57 million last year. In Australia, 
the June 1 surplus availahle for export is 37 million hushels when calculated 
from the latest Commonv;oalth estimate of 180 million hushels for the 1932 crop. 
This compares with 74 million hushels as of J\mQ 1 last year. M;:king some 
allowance for a possihle underesti late of the Australian crop, it would seem tha. 
the remaining s-orplus as of July 1 may amount to ahout 35 million hushels this 
year compared with 55 million last year. 



;7H-74 



-10- 



If an allowancG is made for Unitod Kingdom port stoc^:s and quantitiGs 
afloat of 60 million "bushels compared v/itli 5C million "buahols in those positions 
Jxily 1 last -JQ^x , a total of 540 million "bushels as of July 1 this year is 
arrived at, compared virith 556 million hushols on the corresponding date and for 
the corresponding positions last year. A ta"bular comparison of these figures is 
shov/n in the accompanying table. 



Tahle 6.- Wheat carry-over, July 1, 1931 and 1932 



Position 
- - .~ 


— - — . 

; 1931 


; Forecast 
: 1932 




2 Mi 1 1 "ion "bnj^hpl 


s;I.Iillion hushels 


Waited States; 


• 
• 




Domestic . . . . . . „ 


o : a/ 319 


: a/ 360 




6 


: 5 


Canada; 










: 130 






: 12 


Argentina . o . . , . . 


. 0 ; 57 


: 38 


Australia 


. . : 55 


; 35 


United Kingdom: 












Afloat to: 


• 




United Kingdom . . . 


. „ : 19 


; ( 60 








Orders 


, : 13 




Total . 


, . .: 656 


; 640 


d^T Includes 20 milliora 


• • 

"busTTels^Vf v:/hVaT'¥torcX^'in mills for 


"others July 1, 1951 and 


an estimate of 10 million bushels for 


July 1, 1952. The United States carry-over 


as previously 



published as an item of world carry-over did not include wheat 
stored in mills for others. 



Crop Prospects 

The preliminary forecasts of acreage and production in the countries for 
which such information is availa'blo and the reports on crop conditions in other 
coujitries indicate a 1952-33 wheat crop in the Northern Hemisphere (excluding 
Russia and China) of a"'oout 200 million "bushels smaller than that of last year. 

The acreage as far as reported "by 24 comitrios is 167,320,000 acres 
as compared v/ith 175,244,000. acres in the same countries last ycajr when this 
totd represented 84 per cent of the total ITorthorn Hemisphere wheat area 
exclusive of Russia and China. The principal areas (excluding Russia and China) 
not included in these totals are fhe spring v/hoat areas of the Unitod States. 



\VH-74 



-u- 



In tho United States a v/intor wheat crop of 410,659,000 tushols v;as 
indicated li^" the Juno 1 condition. This is 30,000,000 "bushels loss .than 
indicated on May 1. ■I'he decrease occurred principally in Nebraska, Kansas, 
and Oklahoma, v/here the prospect ive yield v/as further reduced Dy continued 
deficient moistu-re, temperatures above avora;;o, and the damage from Hessian 
fly. A crop of 410,669,000 buchels would be 48 per cent less than the record 
crop of 787,465,000 bushels in 1931 and 25 per cent less than the average 
rjonual production of 548,632,000 bushels for the 5-yoar period, 1924 to 1928. 
Tho condition of spring wheat on June 1 is reported at 84.5 per cent of normal, 
which is about 2 per cent below tho lO-j^-ear (1919-1928) average condition of 
85,8 per cent. No report of production indicated bj' condition is made until 
July 1. 

In Canada, reports of the condition as of May 31 together \/ith reports 
of v/eathor conditions since that time suggest that the crop may be between 450 
and 500 million bushels. 

The condition of all wheat in Canada as of May 31 is officially placed at 
93 per cent of a long-time average yield of 17.1 bushels to tho acre compared 
with 81 per cent at that time a year ago. A yield of 15.4 bushels to tlie acre 
on an acreage equal to that intended would give a harvest of 413 million 
bushels; on an acreage erual to that of 1931 it would give 428 million bushels. 
Conditions wore reported to be bettor than in 1931 in Saskatchewan and Mr^iitoba . 
cjid above average in Alberta. 

Arrple rainfall tho f irst v/ook in Jun.o improved tho outlook and on 
Juno 7 conditions v;erc officially reported to be good in Saskatchewan and 
Manitoba to excellent in Alberta. Some cut\/orm end v/ireworn damage v;as reported 
in Saskatchewan and Alberta and grasshoppers wore reported hatching in Manitoba. 
Reductions in yield caused by cutv/orms in Saskatchewm in tho four years 1927 
to 1930 ri-jTiged from 0.23 per cent in 1928 to 3.83 per cent in 1930, reductions 
from wiroworms ranged from 1.59 per cent in 1923 to 1.86 in 1927, Similar 
reports are not available to help indicate possible grasshopper drjuagc. 

Reports of weather through Juno 7 also indicate about average conditions 
in Saskatchev/aii and considerably bettor than average condi':ions in Alberta, 
Rainfall in Saskatchewan was ligh-^. in May, offset by heavy rainfall the first 
week in June. In Alberta rainfall was heavy both in May and early June. 
Tem.poratures on the whole were a little above average in May tending to over- 
come the handicap of late seeding. 

Clement, Curtis rjad Company csti.aate a 2 per cent increase in acreage oi 
spring v/heat in the Canadian Prairie Provinces as against a probable decrease 
of 3,5 per cent indicated by reports of farmers' intentions. 

Yields ecual to the long-time average in Saskatchewan and Manitoba 
and 23 bushels in Alberta, (which is ec_ual to the average of yields for all 
3'ears beginning with 1905 in v/hich the yield was above the long-time average 
of 18 bushels) would give a harvest of 477 million bushels on an acreage equal 
to intentions, or 493 million bushels on an acrea e equal to that of 1951. 



\VH-74 "12- ^ . 

Improved conditions were noted i.n raan:-of tile European coimtries during May. 
France has increased wheat acreage , and the official condition report as of May 1 
v;as somev/hat higher than a year ago. Germany also reported a larger acreage and ^ 
"better condition as of June 1. Unusual cold weather v/as general in both ' 
countries during the first week in Jxme , delaying the normal crop developments. 
If present weather conditions continue, harvests will he delayed in both countries. 
The crop in Italy is hackvrard hut promising. Conditions in central Europe are 
Improving follov/ing recent "rains . Agricultural Mtache' Michael at Belgrade 
estimated a decrease of 25 per cent in the crop in the , Danube countries. 

The official estimate of the 1932 harvest in India has been reduced from 
347,648,000 bushels to 340,928,000 bushels. The final estimate of the 1931 
harvest v/as 347,387,000 bushels. 

The area sown to spring wheat in Russia up to June 5 was 52,100,000 acres 
against 59,600,000 acres to June 5, 1931. The completion of the"plan" now 
seems unlikely. | 

The v/inter wheat crop in China is reported to be about the same as last year. 

World Trade and Carry-over Prospects 



i 



\7orld shipments of v/hoat, after having increased rapidly during April, 
reached a peak for the first v,-eek of May of 20 million bushels. Then followed a,, 
decline similar to the preceding rise with shipi'ents falling to a low point of 
13,6 million bushels for the last v;eek of Hay, This low point was about the 
same as the temporary low reached late in March, but was much above the previous 
low point reached the last v/eek of December when only 10,2 million bushels were 
shipped. Following the low point for the week ended May 28 there was an increase 
in shipments for the t\'/o following weeks, and for the v/eek ended June 11 total 
v/orld shipments amounted to 15 million bushels. 

In recent weeks Worth American shipments have been comprising a larger 
part of the total than they did in the months from January to March. Argentine 
shipments have been declining fairly consistently since they reached their peak 
of about 7 million bushels v/eekly early in March, and iujring the latter part of 
May and early June were averaging only about 3 million bushels weekly. Australian 
shipments, though they reached heir peak in January, have been declining less 
rapidly, and average close to 4 million bushels dviring May and early June. North 
American shipments, after rising from a low level of about 4 million bushels 
weekly in March to a peak of 9,G million for the second v/eok of Hay, have more 
recently boon averaging 7.5 million bushels weekly, and hence have constituted 
aboiit one-half of the total world shipments. 

With dwindling Southern Hemisphere sup:liGS and small prospects for early 
resumption of Russian shipments in volumo, it seems likely that North American 
shipments will continue to constitute a major portion of the total diiring the 
next few months. The total volume of shipments, however, will depend considerably 
upon the outturn of harvest in European importing countries and upon how early or^ 
late the harvest of the crops may be. 



V/H-74 



-13- 



Tho Cont in ontoJ European "Vjieat Market Situation During .May a/ 

Takings of overseas wheat by continental European countries during May 
v/ero again of fair volume and at times business reached a point of considor- 
a,blQ activity. No particularly significant^ buying movement developed, as 
purchases v/ere limited largely to immediate- needs. In the opinion of the con- 
tinental trade there have beon no fundamental changes in the wheat situation 
during the past month. 

During the first part of May, continental European wheat markets v/ore 
influenced by the reported improvement in crop conditions in the northv/estem 
part of the United States. On the other hand, publication of the nev/ import 
regulations in Germany and the permission to import v/heat into Spain both 
had a stimulating effect which resulted in increased takings of wheat, particu- 
larly Argentine and Australian descriptions. The general lack of confidence 
among speculative interests was later shovm by the fact that reports of crop 
deterioration in the United Statos and the purchase of v/heat by the Soviet 
Government had little or no effect on the market. Around the middle of the 
month more active buying was reported in Spain and Portugal and Gorman pur- 
chases of feed wheat also picked up. The market was later more quiet landcr the 
influence of holidays and the favorable reports on the Canadian spring wheat 
crop practically offset the unfavorable prospects for the United States winter 
wheat c:.-op. Continued unfavorable reports from the United States brought about 
a somev/hat firmer tone during the last few days and a pick up in purchases of 
overseas wheat occurred. 

Prices for domestic wheat in the continental markets wore generally un- 
changed although prices in Franco and Poland have been firmer during the past 
.several days. Prices of overseas v;heat on the Continent are slightly higher 
than at the beginning of the month, but have not follov/ed, to the full extent, 
the improvement sho\m on overseas markets. 

Stocks of wheat in the 12 principal continental ports on May 15 were 
7,165,000 bushels as compared to 6,944,000 bushels on April 30, but were 
lower than a year o.[;o. Both the farm and secondhand stocks in Germany showed 
a substantial decrease during the period ended May 1. Stocks in general cannot 
be considered burdensome and it appears that flour mill and baker's stocks in 
several of the coxmtries are belov; normal. 

Wlieat and Flour Shipment s to the Co ntinent 

World shipments of -./heat and flour to the Continent, during the first 
three weeks of May, showed some improvement over the corresponding period of 
the previous month, and those to Eiiropo including the United Kingdom, the Con- 
tinent and "on order" have shov/n a considerable pick-up. The largest increase 
was in shipments from Atlantic North America ajid Australia while those from 
Argentina declined. Danubian shipments were relatively insignificant and for 
the past several weeks Russia has shipped nothing except a small quantity of 
corn. EstimatCjd requiromonts for the Continent during the remiainder of this 
season point toward a pick-up in shipm.onts in the near futxoro. 

a/ Based on report of Assistant Agricultural Comiiaiss ioner Donald F. Christy, 
Berlin, Germany, May 26, 1932 and supplemented by cable, June 7. 



-14' 



Tabic 7,-Pricc per bushol of . domes tic v;hoat at specif iod marlcots, 

July 2, 1931- Jujic 1, 1932 



Date 


Paris 


: Mila^i 


: Berlin 


! Prague 


! Vienna ; 


Poznan 




' Gouts 


: Cents 


: Gents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


1931 














July 2 . . 


: 190 


! 134 


! 172 


: 124 


1 


84 


Aug. 5 . . 


t 167 


150 


: 120 


! 116 


I 104 


60 


Sept. 2 a/' 


168 


! 139 


! 131 


! 102 


97 


65 


Oct. 7 


165 


\ 134 


: 135 


: 110 


! 98 


61 


Nov. 4 ..; 


165 


! 141 


I 147 


: 116 


! 114 


i 70 


Doc . 2 . . ! 


162 


! 144 


: , 143 


117 


! 118 


76 


1932 ! 














Jan. 6 . . ' 


168 


1 


143 


! 115 


; 120 


! 75 


Fob. 3 ..! 


168 


158 


156^ 


! 113 


118 


72 


Mar. 2 . . : 


175 : 


172 


! 159 


: 117 


: 119 


: 74 


Apr. 6 


184 ! 


168 


1 167 


: 119 


I 125 


i 81 


May 4 . . ; 


182 


173 


177 . 


119 


: 131 


: 09 


11 


182 


: 175 


178 : 119 


! 131 




IG : 


184 


174 


179 


! 119 


: 131 




25 ..! 


186 


: 170 


: 171 


! 117 






JiJOiG 1 . . ; 


187 


164 


173 


115 







a/ Beginning at this date convorsions are made at current rates of exchange. 



Table 8. -Price per bushel of continental -./heat, specified dates, 1932 



Position • End of April * Middle of May * End of May 



: Cents : Cents : Cents 

• B • 

Paris 180 :' 182 : 185 

Berlin : 176 : 179 : 175 

Milcji : 174 : • 175 : 166 

Prr^o . o : 119 ., : 119 : 115 

Vienna : 132 : 132 : 133 

Poznan : : 



V/H-74 



-15- 



TaTD]e 9.- Cont incntal European stoclrs of v/heat, , tlie iniddle of April 

and middle ol Llay- 1931 and 19 3<; 



1931" ; ' ' 1952 



Location 


."Middle 
:of Apr. 


: "Middle : Middle ; 
: of May : of Apr. 

: 1,000 1,000 
> Dushel.s J "bushels : 


Middle 
of May 


Berlin (uheat and flour) ..... 
Kamtog (rough estimate ) : 

German farms stocks . . • 

German "second hatid" stocks e/. . . : 


. 1,000 
, "bushels 


1,000 
"bushels 


1,530 
2,610 
a/l,440 
510 

0 

C/'So,5 00 : . 


530 : 700 
: 2,020 • 1,300 
•"b/ 1,3(J0 :a/l,450 
520 : i,lLC 
0 : 11 
d/l2,800 :c/2B,500 
: f /25,000 


; 460 
940 
ih/ 1,170 
: 1,290 
: 510 
!d/l8,200 
g'/22,000 



a/p End of Aprif. T/'Snd of May. Middle" o'i"MarchT '"" d^T^iddle of Apr'il. 

_e^: In warehouses and flour mills (wheat and flour); these totals are estimated 
to include 95 per cent of the second hand stocks actually existing, and therefore 
m.ust contain most of the Berlin, Ramhurg and Pre men -Brake data, 
f/ April 1. g/ Hay 1, 



Table 10.- ■';;iieat and wheat flour shipments to the Cont inent, stated 
periods, 1928-29 to 1931-32 



J'ciii' v/eeks ended 


; 1928-29 


* 1929-30 


\ 1930-31 


1951-32 




: 1,000 "bushels 


: 1,000 "bushels 


: 1,000 bushels 


: 1,000 bushels 


Aug, 27 


: 32,000 


• 14,360 


: 25,300 


: 14,080 




: 32,960 


: 14,240 


: 23,160 


: 18,560 




31,360 


i 14,V20 


' 23,040 


: 24,160 




26 , 400 


: 16,760 


: 20,720 


' 25,240 






: 19,360 


: 16 , 000 


: 18,240 




27,720 


9,496 


: 13,550 


9,750 


Fe"b. 11 ' 


26,120 


14, 760 


: 17,440 


15,120 




26,540 


16,360 


: 19,240 . 


17,000 




22, 720 : 


15,520 


15,320 : 


17,560 


May 5 : 


19,840 ; 


15,000 


27,600 : 


20,350 




32,080 : 


20,520 


34,760 : 


18,960 


Aug. 1 to June 3: 


317,920 : 


16lV096 ~ 


"242','44*C" 


199';040 ■ ' 


A'bove shipments ; 


















supplied "by - ; 










Dynu"be j 


2,520 : 


14,392 : 


12,752 : 


27,864 


Hussia : 


8 : 


5,272 : 


15,992 : 


3,580 


Overseas ; 


315,392 : 




213,696 : 


162,496 



-16- 



TalDle 11.- V/heat and v/heat floixr shipments to Exirope, stated periods, 

1928-29 to 1931-32 



Four weeks ended 


1926-29 


[ -1929-30 

• ^ 


1 9 tj 0** t^l 

• , „ 


1 9 31—«5f^ 




: 1, 000 bushels 


: 1,000 "bushels 


: 1, 000 bushels 




1,000 bushels 


in rr P7 


' 47,160 


: 45,600 


: 50,480 


46,120 


c;e,-n+ 9/1 


• 50,800 


: 41,320 


: 54,080 


; 52,800 




' 50,600 


: 40,120 


' 53,080 


; 50,840 


TJnv 1 Q 


• 59,550 


: 30,120 


: 58,160 


: 50,040 


"DPf 1 7 


: 53,200 


: 30,160 


: 37,560 


3o,8o0 


Jan, 14 . , , . . 


> ^JC , *7 D vj 


> P7 vpn 


• 0 1.^ , o u 




Fel). 11 . . , . , 




Q C n 

' ,?D ,3 00 


I f doi) 


> /I p A no 

! ^/C , D UU 


Mar .11,.,,. 


60,120 


; 32,720 


: 43,200 


; 46,560 


JA.U1 , O . . 0 , , 


51, 720 


31, 550 


; 38,640 


; 43,080 


T,/rn-.r P, 


42, 680 


25, 520 


: 45,920 


49, 400 




55,120 


37, 580 


: 61,480 


: 49,960 


Aug. 1 to Jiine 3 ; 


584, SbT) 3 


580,280 


516,240 


501,1380" 


Atove shipments ; 










supplied "b;-- : 










Danuhe . . . . : 


2,520 : 


17,568 : 


13,536 


36,888 


Russia . . , . : 


8 : 


5,664 s 


95,5 72 : 


73,080 


Overseas , , , : 


581,832 : 


357,048 : 


407,032 : 


391,112 



Crop Conditions 



Over a large part of central Europe the drought conditions which prevailed 
during the past winter and early spring continued into the third week of I.Iaj. 
Except for the eastern part of Poland and the extreme eastern part of Csechos- 
lovalcia, these two countries, together with Austria, have received much below 
normal rainfall during May which, coupled with the deficiency of moisture exper- 
ienced during the preceding months, is considered very luif avorable , especially 
for spring sovm crops. In western Europe, on the other hand, especially France 
and Germaiiy rainfall was above normal during April, This excess of rain 
continued throughout roost of France during the first three weeks of May but 
rainfall during this period in Germany was somewhat below normal except in east 
Prussia and the Black Forest Region. 

Germany 

The unfavorable weather prevailing during the first part of April v;as 
rc'-^laced by more favorable conditions during the latter part of the month and the 
official crop condition report, as of May 1, shov/ed a marked improvement in c rops 
as compared with the previous months. 



-17- 



Crop coiiditions on Jv^no 1, 1932, with comparisons v/ere as follovi/s; 

^i^^L L'_^i?i April 1, 1952 ^Bll±.\2^^ Juno 1, 19 52 

V/inter wheat 2,9 3.2 2.8 2.6 

Winter rye 3.0 5.1 • 2.S 2.5 

Winter Parley - 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 

The earl;- sovm crops are axipai'entlj'" in a relatively hettor condition than 
the later sov/n crops which are still somewhat backward, \7cather conditions driring 
Ma; v/ere generally favorable to crop grovirth over most of the country. Rainfall 
during the firsf three weeks of May, hov/ever, v/as "below normal except in east 
Prussia and the Black Forest. As a result, sprii^g sown crops in many localities 
are showing the effects of lack of moisture, hut due to the local character of the 
rainfall, other sections have fine crop prospects. A very warm spell of weather 
aroimd the middle of the month was especially beneficial to those crops which had 
previously received si.ifficient moisture. 

Contrary to previous expectations and in spite of the unfavorable v/eather 
conditions, which prevailed during February and March, the amount of reploughing 
because of winter kill is officially reported to be below that of last year. The 
acreage abandonment in per cent of the total acreage planted has been officially 
reported as follows; 

Winter wheat Winter rye Winter barley 

per cent Per cent per cent 

1928 2.8 3.5 3.7 

1929 6.3 , . l..e 18.3 

1930 0.2 0.1 .0.2 

1931 3.8 3.0 3.5 

1932 1.0 0.5 ■ 0.5 



In spite of tlie apparent low abandonment this year, it is felt that winter 
crops suffered more damage than the above figures indicate. Wliile the winter 
killing was not severe enough to cause the abcn.donment of large areas, it did 
greatly reduce the stand in maiiy fields. It is felt that some of these fields 
would have been replanted in normal times but due to uhe unfavorable economic 
conditions, farmers are replanting only the absolute minimwn. The possibility 
of thin st^.nds , together with reduced use of fertilizers will tend to reduce 
yields although the growing weather from nov/ on is of course the controlling factor. 

The extent of the reduction in the use of fertilizers in Germany is clca.rly 
shown by recently published figures. According to those data the consuniption of 
artificial fertilizers during the nine months ended March 31, this year, was 
from 14 to 32 per cent loss than the corresponding period a year ago, depending 
upon the variety. Since the 1931 consujnption v/as itself rather lev/, the 
present figures appear very unfavorable in comparison with those of tv/o years ago. 



lVlI-74 



-18- 



Austria 



^reotlv r f Official crop report c.s of V.c.j 1, fall sovm cro-os i...:rovod 

fZ^^ follov/iii5- tatlc presents the Hay 1 condition'./ith' 

comparisons (2 = Dottor than average, 3 = average, 4 = lo-;.r than average ) 

EBL1*-12IL ^^'^il 1' 13^2 Maj 1, 1932 



V/inter v/hoat 2.7 



3.1 2.8 



Spring wheat 2.5 - 5.1 

Winter rye 2^8 

Spring rye 2.8 

Winter "barloj^ 2.8 

Spring harley 2.5 
Oats 



2.9 2.6 
2.4 

2.9 2.8 
2.4 

2.5 - 2.5 



In contrast to the apparent improvement shown hy condition f igoiros, 
wea.ner conditions and comiaonts, both official and private, indicate that c-ops 
..re not at all satisfactory. Except toward the end of April crops made little 
or no ^ growth due to the cold weather and lack of moisture. The warm weather 
experienced toward the end of April i...proved conditions to some extent, but 
spring sowings were not completed till the first part of i:ay. 

n A ■ ^^^-i!? ^''"'^ ^^""^^ rainfall continued far below normal 

fbn noJt n i^-""' ^'"^"'^^ '''-^ reported from soil blowing due to strong winds in 
^°^^h^^^^°r^/oction of Lower Austria. Complaints of dr^-ness were frecucnt 
..nd unless normal rainfall is secured from now on the harvest will be disappointin 

Czeclx)sl 0 valci a 

4.V V ^f°li^«^-^^ry estimates recently published indicate a slight incrersc in 
the wheat rjid rye oxireage, but a c'.ocrcr.se in barley and sugar boots. 

Czechoslovakia: Wieat acrej.ge, 1931 and 1932. 

C^OP 1931 a/ 1932 b/ 

Acres Acres 



Winter wheat i^9Sl 2,967 

Spring wheat 93 ^09 

Total \^heat ~' 2,076" 

Winter rye ' 2,417 2,448" 

Spring rye 73 70 

Total rye ~2,T90~' Z,~51^' 

Winter barley Is" ]^ 

Spring barley __L' "{l^ 1,734 

Total barley L l'~Z^iL_'_ 17750~ 

~2,042 ^276'56"" 

Sugar beets ' 451 403 

D./ Acreage harvested. b/ Preliminary, 



-],9- 



Kost of the country axpsrienced a d.^ficiency of rainfall during April and 
the first three weeks -of May wiiich further decreased the already low supply of 
soil moisture. The Lack of rainfall has affected nearly ?.ll sections except the 
extreme eastern part of the country aiid the sudden spell of hot weather etperienced 
aro'Lind the 21 of May v/as of more harm than good. 

Poland 

Crop conditions in Poland the middle of April showed some improvement as 
compared with the previous month and are now reported to ho ahout average. As 
in the case of Austri-^, however, tlie condition figures are not helieved to he 
entiroLy representative, duo to thin stands and tne decreased consumption of 
fertilizers of which the condition figures do not appear to take sufficient 
account. It is helieved that many fields which would normally he replanted will 
he permitted to remain this year because of th2 u^ifcvorahle economic conditions. 
The following tahle shows the April condition fig'ares with comparisons, when 
5 equals excellent, 1 poor: 

Middle of April Middle of I.Iarch Middle of Ap ril 
Y93I 1952 li?2_ 

Winter \7heat 3.0 2.8 3.0 

2.9 2,9 3.1 



Winter rye 
Winter horloy 3.0 



2.9 



Ahandonment is now officially ostimatod at 2.8 per cent for winter wheat, 
3.4- per cent for v/intcr rye and 1.3 per cent for winter harley. 

The lack of rainfall during the first three weeks of May coupled with the 
deficiency experienced during the past winter and spring is causing some 
apprehension rogardim: the possihlc outcome of the crop. The host conditions 
are apparently in the eastern part of the State where rainfall has hccn more 
or less normal. 



Fr anc e 

ThC' cool weather which prevailed during April coi-tinued throughout t:io 
first three weeks of May except for a short period around May 20, v/hen^a warm 
dry spell occurred. Otooq are now heginning to show the effects of this unfavor- 
ahle weather and there arc many complaints regarding the unsatisfactory condition 
of oats. Ap-oarentl- much of the difficulty with the oats crops is due to the 
unsatisfactory seed used. 'Zaeat has so far shown good grovrfch hut certain well 
informed authorities indicate tJiat unless there is a change to warm dry weather, 
the crop will go mostly to straw. With the largo increase in acreage, however, pro- 
duction promises to he somewhat above that of last year. 

Italy 

The unseasonably cold v/eather experienced in .-.pril and the first part 
cf May delayed all crops from 10 to 14 days. Toward the middle of May, however, 
weather became much xjoxmoT and crops developed more favorably, hut crops are 
still later than usual and favorable weather is needed from now on. 



¥H~74 



-20- 



Thc l;Ost condi-jiono prevail In Douthorn It-alj v/here rains hr.ve boon 
atundaut, buf sorac d^^jnago from strong hot vinds was reported in Sicily. Rcporto 
for the northern part of the coimtr;^ aro; 1 enc favorable, . the late sown crops 
"being the least satisfactory. 

Belgium 

Cold weather and night frosts retarded the growth of crops during ..pril. 
As a result the growth of winter crops was short and the spring crops wore 
slovvT in sprouting. 

Despite a recent improvement in demand for artificial" fertilizers, a 
decrease in consumption is expected as^ compared v/ith a year ago. 

S\7it zerland. ' . 

Cold weather and frequent night frosts during the first half of April 
delayed crops hut the warm weather during the second part of the month provided 
more favorable growing conditions. Late sovm crops, however, showed^poor 
growth, cxLd. were more or less damaged during. the winter. The following table 
shows the condition of winter crops as of Hay 1 in per cent of the 10-yoar 
average. 

'32 ■ May 1, 1931 





May 1_,__1£32 


April 1, 


Winter wheat 


' 92 


90 


Spelt 


94 


92 


Winter rye 


97 


94 


Mixed grain 


94 


92 


Winter barley 


93 


93 


Oats (spring) 


98. 





92 
96 
91 
95 
93 
96 



Lithtiani 



Condition of winter crops in Lithucaiia appears to be somewhat better 
than a year a^o according to the official report as of the beginning oi i..ay. 
Condition of spring sowings also appears to be favorable. 

Sv.'eden 

The sprir^ was earlier then usual in Sweden this year and sowings 
com-oleted at an early date. Weather conditions during May wore favorable and 
x)rcsent "orospects are good. Latest reports indicate aii increase of abou. . 
ver cent" in the winter wheat acreage this year but the winter rye acreage was 
reduced by about 7 per cent. In addition it is reported that aoout 148,000 
acroa of spring wheat were plrjited tnis year. 

Denmajrk 

RoTjorts from Denmark indicate that crop conditions are favorable. 



\m-74 



-21- 



Hussic 

_3j?r_ing _sov.'ing c_cunpaign 

'j-'hc inprovGd progress of sov;in{^s, as compared v/ith 1931, which was 
apparent prior to llcj 1, hrs sinco that time, suffered a setback, and total 
sowings on Llajr 20 this year \;ero 4,475,000 acres IdoIow those of the samu time 
a year ago. Although sowings during the third 5-day period of May v;ero 
exceptionally large this year, they wore not sufficient to offset the unfavorahl 
progress of sowings during the first ten days of the month, so tiiat so\/in-:s on 
May 20 amounted to only 135,389,000 acres, com-oared mth 139,854,(00 acres last 
year and 139,747,000 acres on the snne date in 1930. 

The decreased acreage of all grains sown hy May 20 this year is due 
largely to the extremely -unsatisfactory progress of sowings in Ul^rainc and the 
central fertile Region, but sowings in most other regions ere also behind a 
year ago. On May 20 sowings of all crops in Ul<:raine \.-ere 31 per cent belo\' thos 
of the corresponding date in 1951 and 42 per cent below the comparable data for 
1930. .-.s spring acrea. :o in Ulcraino constitutes a ver:, inportrnt part of the 
total, the situation there is causing apprehension on the part of Soviet 
officials. Although this year's spring v;hcat ploj-i for Ulcraino has been 
considerably reduc;;d, the region is considered a very important one, especially 
in regard to exports. Its proxirity to ports and its largo ac:ea e of barley 
and oats places it ajnong thy more important e:c;ort producing regions of tho 
Union. The following tabulation shows the total sowings on May 20 during the 
past three years for the Union and for important region; 





May 20, 1930 


May 20, 1931 


May 20, 193; 




1,000 acres 


1,0C0 acres 


1,000 acres 


Ukraine 


40,547 


34,290 


23, 662 


North Caucasus 


19,009 


16,6 72 


15,881 


Central Fertile 


13,170 


11,233 


9,177 


Lower Volga, 


10,297 


11,960 


10,336 


Middle Volga 


12,251 


15, 029 


14,443 


Ural 


5,024 


6,294 


4,772 


V/e stern 


2,639 


852 


3,333 


Moscow 


4,922 


3,096 


4, 784 










Total Union 


139,747 


139,364 


135,389 



Tno individual peasant farmers cxt reported to be ,-rcatly behind with 
their sowings, ajid they are apparently shorwing reluctance" to cajc-ry out the 
Government plan. A tendency to sow only enough for their ovm needs has been 
reported in the central Fertile Regions, and this is no doubt characteristic 

rogionsjl^^^ Union, a/ Reports Irom Ulcraine indicate 
In this connection The 'recent l:tipul"at~i~nVTF Wr"GVv7;rnn^ 
the^sale of agricultural products on thJ open market, by collectives and 
individual peasants, and anaiouncing a considerable reduction in the procuring 
plan for this coming campaign should bo noted. 



-22- 



thct tlie acute shortage of grr.in ccuscd pcc.santc to concuraG grr.in set r.sido for 
seod r.nd this hc.s resulted in the unf r-vorchle sov/ing progress reported there. 



Since the acrc.:.Q;e cultivated li'j the individual peasants still comprises 
ahout one-fifth of the total spring acreage of the Union, su.ch a development is 
of the greatest importcjicG. On May 15 this ^ear, only 21.2 per cent of the 
30\7ing plan for individual peasants had ocen completed, as compared with 
33.i- per cent completed at the srone time a jc;.r rgo. Plans for the collectives 
and Soviet State farms were 48,4 per cent and 52 per cent complete on Ha-- 15 this 
year. 



Spring v/heat sowings v/ere at first even more haciaTard thrn other crops, 
hut have recently picked up, and sowings on I.iay 20 this year amounted to 
44,184,000 acres, comprred v/ith 43,700,000 acres on the same date a year ago, 
and 37,193,000 acres in 1930. As in the case of total sowings, hov/evcr, Uicraine , 
is greatl3^ hehind, the spring wheat Cjcreage so\m there to date "being only about 
half that so\m at the corresponding time in 1901. The following tahle 
represents the development of spring wheat sowings in the c>acf producing regions 
of the Union for the past three years; 

May 20, 1950 Ma y 20, 1951 May 20, 1952 

^'SP^^S-'^I?!. I_i000 acrc-s_ 

Ukraine 8,159 5,622 2,875 

North Caucasus 5,419 5,108 5,150 

Lower Volga 6,160 7,611 7,722 

Middle Volga 5,864 5,871 o./ 5,771 

Kasakstrji 2,456 4,253. 4,188 
Western and eastern 

Siberia 2,730 5,896 

Ural region _ _ ^ _ -j028 _ _ 3, 104___ 

Total union 3Y,y93" ■~43V700'~'"' 44,184 

a/ Reported at 7,843,000 acres on May 15 this yec^r hut since revised 
~to 6,507,000 acres for that date. 

Although the present level of v/heat sowings apperrs favorable when compared 
to prevjous years, it should be borne in mind that a large share of the acreage 
was planted after the expiration of the optimum sowing dates. Thus, for 
example, combined wheat sowings in the Uicraine, North Caucasus, lUddlc Volga 
and Lower Volga amovjitcd to about 22 nillion r.croc on May 15. Of this, however, 
less thaA 8,600,000 acres v;ere sovai diiring what is normall;" regarded as the 
optium sov/ing period for these regions. 

On the other hand, v/hcat sov/ings in v/estcrn Siberir. are much furth-r 
advanced than in either of the last two yecjrs. This development must bo i 
considered a favorable factor, as tnis region contained almost 20 per cent 
of the spring wheat acre a.:' c in 1931. 



rH-74 



-23- 



The following; tatle presents the sowings of Parley and oats with compara- 
tive data for previous ^^ears. T'^ie to-'.al sorrir^s for the Union lor these crops 
separately are not avallaole for I'JoO hut a coapariso>i of individuel regions 
shows the 1952 sowings to be niuch helow those of ooth 1930 and 1931. Oats 
sowings are especially haclcvard this year. 



Tahle 12.- Sowings of bprle^ and oats to May 20, 1930, 1931 and 1932 





: 19'30' 


: 1931 





"rs~32" ■ 





Region 


Be rTey 














: and Oats 


; Barley 




Oats 


: Barley 


Oats 




:1,6(J0 acres 


. 1 , O'OO acres 




L-'OO acres . 


T,'00""6 acres : 


~\P^'jO acres 


Ulcraine 


13,000 


5 6,817 




4,055 


5, 792 


3,128 


North Caucasus 


: 3,158 


I 1,840 




937 


1,866 


755 


Central Fertile 


: 4,784 


: 358 




3,637 


368 


2,770 


lioscov; 


2,585 






1,740 


79 


2,288 


Ural : 


i' 


138 




1,500 


148 


403 


Hi jninovgorod 


a/ 


292 




2,614 


324 


2,340 


Total Union : 




T2,'16'7 




23,647 


12,054 


19,884 


a/ -i^ata lacking. 



Russian grain shipments 



Shipments through South Russian ports, with the exception of a small 
movement of corn, came to a complete standstill during the four weeks ended 
May 25. Total grain exports through South Russian ports from the heginning 
of the season to May 25 amoi:i:.ted to 3,850,500 short tons, com.pared with 
4, 542,700 sliort tons exported during the corresponding period a year ago. 
The distribution of these shipments hy crops is given helov/: 



July 1 to 
Jmie _30,1931 

1,000 
"bushels 



Jul 2/ 1 to 
^i^il 1951 
1,000 
hushels 



July 1 to 
May 25, 19^ 

1,000 
"bushels 



Wheat 
Rye 

Barley 

Oats 

Corn 



93,743 
15,783 
47,756 
11,395 
2,024 



92,736 
14,593 
47 , 440 
10,148 
2,024 



71,564 
23,392 
31,355 
4, 044 
7.720 



During the first week of Ma:, Russia wr^s reported as purchasing wheat 
for shipment to the Far East. It was stated that the Russian grain trade 
organization had bought ahout 1,500,000 "bushels of Canadian and 255,000 bushels 
of Australian wheat, and further purchases have a-oparcntly taken place since 
then for May and June deliver^'. Since this delivery is too late for seeding 
purposes, it appears that the purchases are to be used for feeding the Red 
Array in the Far Eastern Regions. This should not occasion too m.uch siirpriso, 
however, as the Far Eastern sections of the Union do not norm.ally produce 



sufficient grain, and it is f^ihiplor to ship c^ain tnero fro_n other countries 
than to attempt to transport it from the surplus producing regions oi^the 
western part of the Soviet Union, These purchases, Lov/over, do illustrate 
the transportation difficulties of the, Union, and, in addition, enphcsize tne 
political tension existing in the Far East at the present tirae. 

Tahle 12.- Gcrmcny: Price per bushel of domestic '-^h-^-.t and r:--e 
at specified markets, L'larc;: IG - .Juno 1, 193 2 



Date 



Harahur; 



Ereslau o/! Berlin h/ 



Ber] in 



Cents : 


Cents : 


Cents : 


Cents 


165 : 


169 : 


167 • 


121 


169 ; 


169 : 


169 : 


120 


171 : 


174 i 


169 : 


120 


175 : 


176 : 


173 : 


120 


178 : 


181 : 


177 : 


120 


184 : 


182 . 1 


178 ; 


■ 125 


183 : 


182 


179 : 


124 


181 : 


170 


: 171 : 


118 


177 I 


171 


: 173 s 


118 



iOr . 6 : 

13 ; 

20 : 

27 : 

llo-j 4 : 

11 : 

18 : 

25 : 

June 1 : 

TFic"e'"onv¥i^d "aTTiir^^ "of excha"nt5e. ^ ^ 

a/ -^^flieat of average quality of 57.9 pomids per Winchester ousnel. 

b/ "IT&rlcischer" wheat 58.3 - 59.0 pounds per \7inchester hushel. 

c/ "Ilferkischer" rve of 55.9 - 5S.7 pounds per Winchester bushel. 



Markets 



Germany 

Gorman wheat prices oxhihited a rising tendenc:" during the f 
May OS a result of the new milling regulations which were considered ino.daoua.e 
?;^h: trade, hut the firmness ..^st also he attributed to f^^^^^^f 
reouiremeaats as buyers were hesitant to co..mb themselves ^^"^"^^^^ 

Biisiness in foreign wheat continues insignificant as re,?ula.ions co not pcrmi 
the piirchase of aiiy considerrblc quantities. 



r25- 



Figuros on a^&in stocks in mills and v/arehouscs in Germany representing 
a"bout 95 per cent of the total second hand stocks have "been published for the 
end of ATDril and other recent dates and are as follows: 



Domestic and Foreign 
duty paid 



Foreign 
duty unpaid 





FelD. 29 


Mar. 31 


Apr . 30 


Foh. 29 


Mar. 31 


Apr . 




1,000 


1 , 000 


1 , COO 


1 , 000 


1,000 


1,000 




■bushels 


"bushels 


hushcls 


"bushels 


hushels 


"bushels 


\'i,Tieat 


18,820 


15,586 


13,026 


1,165 


2,094 


2,914 


Rye 


8,854 


9,539 


8,559 


5,508 


5,169 


6,114 


Oats 


9,053 


5,882 


5,234 


48 


48 


48 


Barley 


6,926 


4,832 


■ 3,307 


1,318 


1,079 


919 


l;Vhoat flour 


1,568 


1,463 


1,407 


2 


1 


3 


P.3''e flour 


583 


627 


667 


1 


0 


7 



It can "be seen from the a'bove tahlc that second hand stocks have decreased 
compared v/ith the preceding mouth and there has "been conGidera"ble speculation 
lately as to the prohahle roquiremcntc of wheat during the remainder of this 
season. ;■ et iin^^orts of wheat and wheat flour into Germany during April 
amounted to ahout 1,323,000 tushels coirparod with 1,427, COO "bushels in March 
and 1,690,000 "Duchcls in April of last year. Tsk ing into account the change in 
farm stocks, second hand stocks, imports a^id oxports, the apparent disappearance 
during March a-id April this yoar^ arrouj-.ted to ahout 27,600,000 hushels or an 
average of 13,800,000 "bushel s^y^A-C^rt air: sharo of this, however, was composed 
of spring wheat for seeding so that average utiliJ:ation during the next three 
months should bo somewhat loss than this. The trade estimates present monthly 
consumption at from 11,800,000 to 12,500,000 oushols, hut the Governm.ent 
estimates that consumption will he som.ev/hat loss tha:i this. The Berlin office 
is inclined to take the trade's estimate on this and feel that consumption will 
overage around 12,000,000 "Dushels of wheat per month. This means that Germany 
will re:uire about 52,000,000 hushols of whec.t hetv/een May 1 and August 15, 
v;hcn the new crop should "begin to come on the market. Total stocks of \7heat 
and flour, except tho30 in hak.-'rs' hands, wore estimated at around 1,042,000 
short tons on May 1. The actual second hand stocks totaled 676,000 short tons 
and the farm stocks as of April 15 wero converted to a May 1 hasis "by su"b- 
tracting a half month's rocuirements or uhout 6,000,000 bushels. This places 
the farm stocks on May 1 at ahout 12,200,000 s'nort tons. 

In order to mout recuiroment s , therefore, it would ho necessary for 
Germany to import arour.d 7,000,000 "buch-^ls of wheat hetwocn May 1 end August 15. 
Im-oort regulations peradt the importation o:: ahout 6,600,000 "bushels, so that 
requirement's appear to have "bc^n taken ci.r>j of. This methodof figuring, hov/evcr, 
assumes the er.t?ro utlli:^ation of all stocks, so that farmers and the t rade 
would ontur the nov/ crop year v/nth no v.hrat on haiid. This, of course, is an 
impossible sxtuation as at least three week;? and ordincTily not less- than one 
month's su'cply should be on hand at a?! tiraec. Should disappearance from 
May 1 to Aug-st 15 continue at the rate cf 12,000,000 bushels per month, it 
aopcars that the Government will re uiro cdu?tional im.ports of grain after 
July 1 amounting to 3,700,000 to 7,300,000 bushels in order to permit of even 



-26- 



D. minim-um carr^-over into the new crop year. It is certain, hov/evc-r, that tho 
Government will hold imports as low as possible. 

The situation regarding the rye supply is sorLOv/hat similar. Farm stocks 
of rye on Apri], 15, 1932, ^jvcrc 31,700,000 laushels which would he reduced to 
ahout 24,000,000 bushels hy the 1st of Hay assuming somcv/hat loss than normal 
disappearance. Second hand stocks of rye on May 1 totaled ahout 18,000,000 
bushels so that the totol stocks of rye and flour available May 1st this year 
\/ere about 42,000,000 bushels. As the new crop will not be available before i 
about August 1, it will be necessary" to provide for at least throe months supply. I 
In past years the consumption of rye for broad has averaged about 440,000 short ' 
tons per month, and the utilizo-tion for feed purposes has fluctuated in accordance 
with the size of the rye crop. Even should bread consumption decrease to 
386,000 short tons per month, the rocuiremcnts for Hay, June and July would total 
1,157,000 short tons, which is approximately the c.mount on hrjid May 1. Lgc.ln, 
however, this asspjnes the entire utilization of all stocks and permits no 
feeding of rye to livestock. It appears, therefore, that f-urther imports of 
rye will bo necessary before the nov/ crop becomes available. Any further imports 
will no doubt be taken care of through the Getreide-Handelsgesellschaft . 

France 



French v/heat markets showed a firmer tendency during May and during the 
past v/eok vi/ere much stronger. The slightly v/eaker prices during the latter prrt 
of April were immediately strengthened by the lowering of the foreign milling 
quota from 45 to 40 per cent. Prices during May were stronger due to the small 
farm offers and the apparent low stocks on hand, and the resulting steady rise in 
prices was follov/cd by an increr.se of the foreign milling cuota to 45 per cent, m 
As soon as the Forth African crop is available, however, we may expect to see ■ 
the milling quota again lowered. Business in foreign wheat v/as rather slow fl 
during the first part of May as a result of the cautious attitude of millers, ■ 
but some improvement appeared toward the latter part of the month. " 

Italy 

Italian wheat m^arkets were relatively active during May and a firm tendency 
was exl-iibited on home markets as a result of the practical exliaustion of domestic, 
stocks. This resulted in another increase in the foreign milling quota. By a 
decree of May 23, 1932, the percentage of foreign soft wheat, permitted in 
milling, was raised to 75 per cent for northern Italy and 95 per cent for 
southern Italy. In the case of the islands of Sicily and Sardinia, mills are not 
required to use any domestic soft wheat. Under the same decree mills in 
northern Italy are permitted to use 95 per cent of foreign hard wheat. For 
southern Italy, Latiujii and the island of Sardinia the quota for foreign hard 
wheat is now 90 per cent and for the island of Sicily 85 per cent. 

i 

Business in foreign wheat continues active with a preference being shown 
for Manitobas and Hard Winters, although Plates are also finding a good sale. 



\VH-74 



-27- 



Belgixim and Holland •, ^ _ 

There v/as moderate activity on the Dutch whoat markets during the period 
under review and prices were generally s to adv. Business consisted mainly of 
Plates and tlorth American descriptions, hut some Australian was also handled. 

Dutch farmers are now advocating an increase of the domestic wheat quota 
from the present 25 per cor.t to 4.0 per cent. It ' is don"bWul that this agitation 
will succeed, although the reported large increase in whoat acreage this year is 
a factor in favor of the farmers' demands. ' ' ' ■ 

Belgian markets were generally firm during the past month and there v;as 
considerahle "business in Hard V/inters and Plates around the middle of May, 
hut activity has recently heen reduced. 

Czechoslovakia . " ■ 



Czechoslovakian. whoat markets were cuict during May and .prices were 
generally stahle though a slight weakening occurred toward the end of the month. 
Rye prices have also weakened lately as a result of increased offers. 

Pending a decision regarding the establishment of a Goverrment -grain 
m.onopoly, the new import contingent for wheat has net heen announced, hut the 
association of millers estimates tne roruiremonts of ahout 3,700,000 hushels 
for the period May 1 to July 31. 

Austria 



Austrian wheat markets wore generally inactive during May. The critical 
stage of political and financial dovclopmonts almost paralyzed business, and 
activity was li.-dtod to indispensable current requirements. Prices showed very 
little change during the month. 

Poland 

Polish grain markets were somewhat firmer during the period under 
review with prices for both wheat and rye moving upv/ard. The trade considers . 
present rye supplies insufficient to. cover requirements. 



WH-74 -28- 

da:mtibe basi!? wheat dupjitg april .u^d my a/ 

The outstanding feat^ores of the wheat sit-uation in the Danuhe Basin 
from the middle of April to the mi:.dle of Hay were: 

(1) ITo change in the estimated area of winter wheat sown, 

(2) An approximate abandonment in the planted area of winter wh^-^at of from 
3 to 5 per cent as a result of floods and freezes. 

(3) A spring wheat area consideraMy "below normal, largely as a result of 
repeated floods in eastern R-uxaania, where about 60 per cent of the spring 
wheat is normally produced. 

(4) A slight iiiiprovement in the growing condition of wheat. However, the 
crop continues ahout three weeks late. The plants are very short, and an 
abundance of moisture is needed to ensure a good crop. Therefore, the outlook 
is very uncertain. 

(5) Continued small deliveries of old wheat from farms to markets as a result 
of delayed field work, and -uncertainty regarding the probable size of the 1932 
crop. 

(6) Increased sales for export made by Government organizations in Hungary and 
Yugoslavia, largely from stocks stored outside of the Danube Basin. 

(?) !Jo important new developments in government aid. However, government 
agencies are actively engaged in dsvelor^ing new relief systems that have been 
recently put into force. 

l-^ZTTTS AlID PRICES 

Low transactions on internal '-larkets in Ru-mnia continued from the middle 
of April to the middle of May, as a result of small arrivals caused by rush spring: 
work", and floods that interfered with traffic. However, the Braila luarket was g 
acre active di:iring the second half of April than dioring previous months because 
of an i-iprove rient in export trade. ^ 



^ Based on report of Asst. Agr icul tui^al Cor^-dssioner J. Bernard Gibbs, 
Belgrade, Yugoslavia, ;'ay 21, 1932. 



WH-74 



In Yugoslavia tlio internal trade in -raeat 'bec3sae free on A.pril 1. An 
active demand for wheat has oeen ha:d since the middle of Airil, tut farmers arc 
holding existing stocks ^ontil reliable inforration regarding the size of the 
1933 crop is , availa'ble. 

Prices; 

The trends of rheat prices in Individual coimtries of the Danuhe Easin 
during the past month. were unsettled. The effects of improved demand for 
export, and small deliveries to rfarkets were often compensated "by small home 
consumption. 

In Bulgaria, the Government Bureau continued to purchase wheat from 
farmers at 57 cents per "bushel, a,^ Of this price, 70 per cent is paid in - 
cash, and 30 per cent in taxation bonds. The Government Bureau sells wheat 
to mills for home consumption under Mono"ool7 control at 78 cents per hushel. 
Prices for ^'hcat sold to exDortors for im-r^ediate exports did not vary material- 
ly, and on the nhole thoy follorred the trend of United States prices. 

In Huns-ary, prices shov/ed a material decline from April 5 to May 15, 
in suite of "better export trade, curtailed market deliveries, and the existence 
of very insignificant stocks. This decline is due to decreased home consuiraution, 
and the fact that mills have withdrawn from the m.arket in order to der^ress 
prices hefore making their usual spring purchases of old wh-rat for use in 
mixing with vheat from the nev' crop. 

Wheat prices in Rumania tended to increase still further, as a resi^It of 
increased deiT,and, pri-iiarily for wheat to fill April and May export contracts. 

In Yugoslavia, prices at Uovi-Sad durin? the ^ast month for 61 po^jnds 
per "bushel Tisza wheat with 2 per cent foreign m.atter fluctuated around S5 cents 
per "bus'nel, whereas South .Ser"bian producers will not sell wheat, of lower 
quality, at prices "below 72 cents per "bushel. 



Price- for 59 pounds per hushel wheat, with no rye and no foreign matter 
Standard adjustments are made for wheat of different quality. 



111-74 



-30- 



Table 14.- Price per bushel for rheat of compara'ble grades at 
Budapest and ITovi-Sad, monthly, January-April and'^cekly 

April 2-May 14,' 1932 a/ 

Novi-Sad, 
Yugoslavia . c/ 
Cents 

84 
84 
83 



65 
64 
63 
63 

64 
64 

64 

65 



Budapest prices from the official daily iDulletins of the Budapest Grain Exchange; 
Kovi-Sad prices from the official daily bulletins of the Novi-Sad Grain Exchange, 
a/ Simple averages of daily prices for compara'ble grades in local currency and 
converted to United States money "by using exch3.nge rates on the Z-orich Exchange. 
Quotations of H-ujr^garian Pengo on the' ''Zurich Exchange ceased on November 21. The 
average November 'gold pengo exchange rate has been used for converting Budapest 
prices to cents, Budapest .v'heat prices have heen quoted in gold pengo since 
Augus t 1 , 

h/ Lorer Tisza, 61.4-62.2 pounds per bushel, foreign matter not exceeding 1 .per 
cent. In addition to the ahove market ;price the, p-orchaser has to pay 48 cents 
per bushel, representing the value of 'the grain ' ticket, from T»'hich the farmer 
receives 29 cents. For wheat that is exported the 48 cent grain ticket expense 
is refunded by the Government. 

c/ ■ Uhtir'Ar'ril 1, 1932 Govern.-neilt Monopoly- plir chase Thrice Tisza 62 -Ddiunds per ' 
"bushel, 1 per cent foreign matter; from April free trade vras reopened and prices 
refer to transactions on the Wovi-Sad' Grain Exchange for 61.4 -oounds per bushel, 
2 per cent foreign matter Eacka-Tisza wheat. 



Period 

1932 

Jan," . . . . . . . . ^ 

Feh. '. . . .'..*'.'/ 

Mar , . . 

leek ended 

Apr, 2 / 
9 o * 

15 
23 
30 
Average 

May 7 ... .■.'■■ 
14 " * * * 

Coo 



x-maeest, 

Cents, 

64, 
. ,64 , 
67 



66 
66 
65 
65 
63 
65 

63 
'59 



WH-74 



-61- 



Develo-pments . in C-overmTiont_A id 

There have "been no ner" developments in government aic. c'-^oring the past 
month, "but government organizations have "been actively engaged in putting 
measures into operation that have "been recently esta'blished. 

Additional clearing agreements have "been closed, in orf'er to ena"ble 
the carrying out of existing commercial treaties. 

In Bulgaria the government Grain Purchasing Bureau has continued to 
operate under the provisions of the Law of Octo"ber 12, 1931, which esta'blished 
government monopoly control of the country's grain trade. Wheat is purchased 
from farmers "by the Bureau at 67 cents per bushel ' f.o.b. "Varna or Boixrgas (a 
farm price of a"bout 62 cents per "bushel), and is resold to mills at 78 cents 
per "bushel. The profit from such sales is used to cover losses on wheat sold 
for export. 

It has "been reported that the Bxxlgarian Council of Ministers has 
ap^^ointed a special co'-nmission which shall "begin negotiations at Sofia on 
May 25 with a German delegation for the p-iJLrpose of concluding a German- 
Bulgarian commercial treaty. 

In Hungary the grain- ticket system is to "be a"bolished as of July 1, 
1932. Losses to May 1, incurred "by fne Hungarian Government in connection 
with the grain ticket system for the years 1930-31 and 1931-32 amounted to 
nearly $5,000,000. In addition to this, the government lost about $3,000,000 
in connection with grain stabilization purchases. 

A new relief system is to be put into effect in Hungary on July 1, 1932, 
The new system simply consists in the government paying the farmer's Land Tax 
for 1932-33. The expenses will be covered by a single milling tax, the rate of 
which will be 59.5 cents per bushel, which is equal to the -oresent 47.6 cent 
grain ticket plus the 11.9 cents milling tax. The government will refiond to 
farmers the milling tax on cereals ground for their own consumption, on the 
basis of certificates issued to them, by the mayoralties of their communities. 

A decree recently issued by the Hungarian Government provides fnat grain 
tickets that will not have been used by June 30, 1932, may be used in paying 
taxes, or may be presented for redemption in cash until August 31, 1932. Fneat 
from the 1931 crop that is destined for export, and which has not been exported 
by June 30, shall be declared before June 20, and must be exported before August 
31, 1932. 

Negotiations for organizing the 1932 Hungarian export campaign are now 
in progress between marketing experts and government officials. A plan sub- 
mitted by exports provides for the creation of a coop'^rative company in which the 
Government, banks, grain exporters, and farmers would be members. This company 
wo'old be required to grade cereals that are destined for exrjort, and to only 
export high grade cereals. It is hoped th?t such erading and handling of the 
exportable surpluses by a single company will res-alt in easier selling and better 
prices. The government will consider this nlan in the near future. 



Tim- 74 



-32- 



Ncgotiations concerning the pajnr.ent of export premiums that the Hungarian 
government has "been ielaying for several months have "been concluded. Exporters 
of rheat, rye and maslin will receive an export premium of 11.9 cents per "bushel 
(hasis of 60 po"'>ind "bushel) instead of 16.7 cents, as agreed upon "between exporters 
and the G-overnment controlled "S;''ndicate of Hungarian Cereal Ejrporters." The 
total of export premims on the 11.9 cents "basis amounts, to. $699^600. It will "be 
paid in foiar instal'nents . 

The recently concluded (Jerman-Hungarian corrmercial treatj'", "became valid 
on April 20, 1932. It states that H^angarian goods can "be imported into Germany 
without limitation in quantity. Imports into Germany.- from all other countries 
are su"bject to import quotas, therefore, competition with Hungarian products is 
limited. As a first result of this agreement, 294,000 "bushels of wheat were 
sold to Germany at the "beginning of May. 

In Rumania export premi^oms on wheat and wheat flour were aholished as 
of April 22, 1932. On April 22 the Rumanian Ministry of Agr i col ture. requested 
Rumanian exporters to declare i^'ithin three days all quantities of wheat destined 
to "be exported, that were "bought for export hefore the Export Premium Act was 
a"bolished. 

There is no new information concerning the liquidation of unpaid export 
premiums. The total amount of unpaid premiums is estimated at $2,400,000 and 
of this amount a"bout $1,560,000 represent premiums on wheat e:cported "before 
Decera"ber 1, 1931. It is "believed that pajmient ^^ill "be extended over a long 
period, and that they will "be made in prorortion with the income from the "bread- 
tax, a/ 

The Yugoslavian Privileged Export Company continues to op-^rate ■'onder the 
new law that was put into effect on April 5, 1932. 

The com-?any pays 77 cents per "bushel for ^^heat for export, "but one half 
of the -orice is paid in honds that can "be used immediately for paying taxes or 
he redeemed in cash at a future date, sometime hefore Decemher 31, 1932. This 
action on the part of the governm.ent has resulted in the stahilization of prices 
for wheat sold for internal consumption at around 65 cents per bushel. 

Actual puTchasps by the Privileged Exrort Company during the past month 
have heen of minor importance, "because prices for wheat to "be used for internal 
Consump'tion have "been satisfactory, and Governm.ent purchases for sta"bilization 
meas-'ores have not heen necessary. Furthermore, the exporta"ble surplus has "been 
reduced to ahout 5,500,000 hushels, and the Government is not willing to export 
additional im-ortant q-ijiantities xmtil the 1932 crop has heen definitely forecast, 
and it is known that it will "be large enough to cover home requirem.ents for 1932-3c 



The "bread-tax, levied in connection with the abolished Export Premium Act 
will he retained long enough to enable the Governnent to liquidate the still 
unpaid export premium.s. This bread-tax amo^ants to 0.27 cents per pound of whi 
bread, and 0.14 cents per pound of dark bread. 



M-74 



-33- 



The nev' Yugoslavian lav/ -provides for a fixed assessment to "be paid "by 
comraercial mills in proportion, to their total grinding capacity • regardless 
of their actiial output. Small village customs mills ?;ith not more than tvo 
stones do not have to pajr this assessment. The rate of the monthly assessm.ent 
for the months of May and June 1932 has'heen set at 70 dinars per quintal (34 
cents per "bushel) of grinding? capacity, for mills having a- total daily grinding 
capacity of from 10 to 20 quintals (37 to 73 "bushels); fae. assessment increases 
from 73.3 to 100 dinars per quintal (35 to 48 cents per'tushel) for mills rith 
a daily grinding capacity ranging oetveen 21 and 100 quintals (77 to 367 loushels); 
and the assessment is gradtxally decreased from 100 to 75 dinars (48 to 36 cents 
per hushel) for mills vith. grinding capacities "betreen 100 to 1000 quintals 
(367 to 3674 hushels). . ' ' 

The Austro-Yugoslavian comrr:Orcial treaty will expire on June 30, 1932. 
A ncv; Austro-Yugoslav clearing agreement vas signed on April 21. It replaces 
the former agreement that ras canceled on April 20. The ne^' agreement does 
not include changes that v-in affect the rheat trade. 

A Yugoslav- S^riss clearing agreement- v.'as concluded during the first half 
of May. The French-Yugo si avian preferential treaty that was signed last year, 
"becam.e valid on Uay 8, 1952. The 'French Government will refund to Yugoslavian 
exporters 30 per cent of the customs duty paid on a quantity of v,heat equal 
to ten per cent of actual total ivheat imports into; France. As a compensation, 
Yugoslavia rill decrease the customs tax on several commodities imported from 
France, such as champagne, lace and other French -Droducts. 



TalDle 15.- WHEAT INCLUDING FLOUR: Exports from principal exporting 
countries, March, April, and i'^ay, 1931 and 1932 



Co-'ontry 


March 


■'A-oril 


: May 


1931 


: 1932 


1931 


: 1932 


1931 


: a/1932 _ 




1,000 
hushelj_ 


1,000 ' 
hushej-S; : 


1,000 
• hushelj. 


1 , 000 : 
t)ushel s ; 


1,000 
hushels. 


1,000 
hushel_s 


United States 

Canada 

Argentina 

British India 

Australia 

Russia a/ 

Dana"be & Bulgaria a/. . . 


4,757 
15,418 
13,411 
328 
17, 584 
6,984 
904 


8,554 • 
11,787 
a/29,056 
h/ 215 
Gy'2l,2B0 
912 
1,120 


7,106 
6,148 

17, 609 
317 

20,234 
1,040 
1,135 


11,885 • 
8 , 653 
a/l9,408 
.a,/ 0 
;a/l3,992 
375 

: 1,104 


10,114 
31,687 

21 , 001 
302 

16,028 
4,350 
760 


9,058 
21 , 824 
13,873 
0 

18,745 

0 

1,312 


Total 


: 59,485 


72,924 


• 53,590 


55,428 


84,252 


63,812 



Compiled from official and trade sources, a/ Preliminary"! Sea Trade only. 



1I7H-74 



-'54- 



Table 16- Yfheat, including flour: Het imports into Suropean countries, 
1929-30, 1930-31 and July' to latest date'l931-32 



Country- 


.'1929-30 


— — — 

: 1930-31 


: Prelim. 

: estimate 


-•■ — 

: JuT^'T 


— — 

to 


inrports 
JJ30-31 


re"Oor ted 
; 1931-32 




: Million 


: Million 


: Million 






: Mill lion 


: Million 




:^sliels 


• "bushel s 


; ."bush 


el^ 






: bu- 


shel s 


: bushel^ 


United Kingdom. . . . 




; 221 


: 220 


-230 


: Apr . 


30 




188 


: 209 






: 84 


: 29- 


-33 


: A^or . 


30 




64 


: 17 






45 


: 42- 


-44 


: Feb. 


29 




29 


: 31 






: 45 


: 68- 


-75 


; Mar , 


31 




26 


: 51 






: 35 


: 31- 


-33 


: Arr. 


30 




30 


: 26 






: 30 


: 22- 


-26 


: Apr . 


30 






: 13 






24 


24- 


-28 


: Mar . 


31 




17 


: 18 


Irish Free State 




19 






: Mar , 


31 




lb 


: 15 






18 


19- 


-21 


Apr . 


30 




lb 


: 18 






15 . 


16- 


-17 


Mar . 


31 




11 


: 12 






15 : 


22- 


-24 


Mar. 


31 




11 


: 16 






11 : 


17- 


-18 ; 


Apr. 


30 




9 


15 






8 : 


8- 


•9 : 


Apr . 


30 




7 


8 






5 : 


4- 


-5 : 


Mar . 


31 : 




4 1 


3 






5 : 


6- 


6 : 


Apr. 


30 . 




5 . 


6 




..:a./y : 


y - 4 : 


0- 


2 : 


Mer . 


31 : 




- 3 : 


- 2 






3 : 


3- 


5 : 


Mar . 


31 : 


2 : 


2 






2 : 


1- 


2 : 


Feb. 


29 : 




2 : 


1 






1 : 


1- 


1 : 


Mar . 


31 : 




1 : 


- 4 






a/^ : 


4- 


7 


Feb. 


29 : 










582 : 






458 : 


459 



Compiled from official sources. J/^ Less than 500,000 bushels, b/ Net export. 



TO- 74 



-35- 



Tatle 17- mTIT"ED STATSS: Exports of wh.-at and rheat including flour, 

iDv weeks, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



Date 


: Whe&.t 


: ^J^lieat 


fj.our 


: ^eat including: floxir 


: : 1930-31 


: 1931-32 


: 1930-31 


t 1931-32 


: 1930-31 


: 1931-32 




: 1 , 000 


: 1 , 000 


: 1 , 000 


: 1 , 000 


! 1 , 000 


: 1,000 




: "bushel s 


! "bushels 


: "carrel s 


: "barrels 


I "bushels 


: hushel s 


J-uly4-Jan, 2 


' 49,720 


: 55,754 


: 5,576 


: 3,659 


77,028 


: 72,963 


FelD. 5-Fe'b.27 


87 


: 4,392 


! 507 


629 


2,469 


7,396 


Mar . 5- Apr . 2 


914 


5, 661. 


470 


496 


3,123 


7,992 


Week ended 














Apr. 9 


136 


1 , 743 


103 


88 : 


620 


2,157 


16 : 


239 ; 


2 , 704' 


165 


209 : 


1,015 


3,686 


23 • 


2,621 : 


2,365 


143 • 


129 : 


3,295 


2 ,971 


oU ; 


514 ; 


2,041 : 


136 


28 J 


1,153 


2,173 


May 7 : 


1,189 ! 


1,730 • 


106 ■ 


31 : 


1 , 687 


1,876 


14 : 


1,202 : 


1,797 : 


95 : 


52 : 


1,648 


2,041 


21 : 


482 : 


2,478 : 


229 ; 


59 : 


1,558 


2, 755 


28 : 


599 : 


1,142 : 


81 : 


52 : 


980 ' 


1,386 


Jiane 4 : 


4,038 : 


1,059 : 


239 : 


68 : 


5,161 


1,379 



Compiled from weekly report of Der^artment of Commerce, 



Ta'cle 18- WHEAT INCLTjDING 510IIR: Shipments from principal exporting 

regions, specified dates, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



Date 


; Ar,<^entina 


Australia 


Danuhe 


Horth Ai'nerica 


' 1930-31 :193].-32 


a23.0::32. 


,1931- '32 




:193i:^ 


1930-31 


.1931-32 




1,000 : 1,000 


1,000 


1,000 


1,000 


• 1,000 


1,000 


1,000 




' jjashel_s: hus'hel^s 


hush e Is, 


"bushel^ 


tushels_ 


: hushel s 


"bushels^ 


tushejl s 


July 4- Jan. 2 


24,376: 40,560 


38,864 


53,192 


10,720 


31,960 


211 ,.936. 


173,288 


Pe"b. 6-Fel3.27 


16,524: 17,612 


17,912 


19,804, 


384 


664 


20, 760 


21,096 


Mar. 5- Apr. 2 


17,720: 29,056 


23, 684 


21,280 


904 


1,120 


22,992 


24,928 


Week ended 
















Apr, 9 


3,456: 5,080 


3,840 


3,936" 


256 


88 


3,864; 


4, 856 


16 


4,672: 4,528 


3, 755. 


3 , 144 


616 


208 


5,032 


7,304 


23 


3,712: 4,432. 


5, 604 


3,176' 


54 


320 


4,432 


7,520 


30 


4,272: 5,358; 


3, 784; 


3,736- 


200 


488 


7,520 


7,680 


May 7 


3,740: 4,452, 


4,224 


5,472- 


216 


592 


10,624. 


8, 856 


14 - 


3,800: 3,836- 


5,288 


4 , 340 


128 


312 


8, 728 


9,720 


21 


5,384: 3,544: 


2,732 


4,744 


176 


168 


10,208; 


6,384 


28 


3,980: 2,041 


2, 812 


4,189 


240 


240 


5, 880 


6,561 


J^ane 4 


4,512: 2,994 


3,872 


3,022 


336 


80 


9, 728 


8,356 



Compiled from official and trade sources. 



WH-74 



-36- 



TalDle 19- ITH'HlAT IITCLITDD^C- FLOUR: Movement from principal exporting 
countries, 1938-29.-19 51-32 



Co"UJntry 



JJJ2:8,£9YK29^^ 



Date 



• l' , QOO :'^l",-000 T"l , 000 • : ' 1 , 000 

■ : •■■ : : : 
United States :1&3, 687:153,242:131,535:130,562 

Canada . . : 422, 732: 184, 213: 267, 265:,145, 488 

Argentina : 227, 059 : 161 , 265: 120, 510: 151 , 384 

Australia :107,,785: 51,892:143,295: 36,394 

Russia : : 

Hungarj^ ,: 23,. 6 58; 

Yugoslavia : 7,. 91 9: 

Riomania : 1 ,.553: 

Bulgaria , : 760: 

British India (L&S): 5,716: 



7,380:110,909: 
31,415: 18,425: 14,069 
23,593: 4,930:. 20,154 

2,560: 14,792:' 695 
96: 5,041: 72 

6,793: 10,197: 3,915 



To tal : 9 50 , 9 69 ; 632 , 454 : 827 , 000: 503 , 734 



i , UUU 


1 , uu'j : 








Dusneis. 






iUr , \~JLO 


IIP RA? • 


Apl » 


30 


212,688 


163,459:- 


Apr, 


30 


103, 860 


129 ,y ^'b; 


f.iay 


'XI 
ox. 


7P ROC 


94,984: 


Fel), 


29 


8,030 


11,214: 


Mar . 


31 


5,164 


12,193: 


Fet. 


29 


11,626 


33, 318: 


Jan , 


31 


1 , 592 


7,320: 


Jan. 


31 


8,807 


.a/2,483: 


Mar . 


31 


533, 758 


; 573, 834: 



Shipments as given_Jcy^ c^Jjrrent trade so^urces 



Jlotal- 



Jeeks ending. 



July 1 to June 4 



1929-30 
jKevJ,, 


1930-31' 


¥.a^i 21 




June_4:1930-31„ 


...,.19-31'-32 


1,000 ' 

Dushel s 


1,000 : 1,000 


1,000 

^"^?^sls. 


1,000 : 1,000 
8^355j,346,9?.2 


1,000 

"bushel s 


317,247 


■367,728: 6,384 


„6^561^ 


jm.m 


193,380 
149,758. 


270,168: 6,066: 4,799 
132.276: 2 , 755: . 1 .386. 


5,122: 256,188 
1,379:124,779 


187,55-8 ■ 
1.1.28,326 


164,984 
54,376 
5, 672 
18,384 

^/l,936 


118,712 
144,512 
92,520 
, 15,128 
5,803 


3,544: 2,041 
4,744: 4,189 
.0': 0 
168: 240 
0: 0 


. 2,994:105,412 
3,022:13^,092 
0: 92,158 
; 80: 14,392 
; 0: 5,723 


135,779 
151,795 
71 , 664 
38,376 

616 


572,600 


, 744,448 


14,840: 13,031: 14,452:698,784 


'705, 539 


476,096 
138, 688 


614,488 
172,600 


12,912: 5,182 
2,456: 1,802 


: 5,273:579,200 
: 1,239:160,912 


547,599 
181,393 . 



ITorth ilmerica h/... 
Canada, 4 market sc/ 

United States , 

Argentina 

Australia 

Russia d/ . . 

DanulDe & Bui gar ie^^ 
British India 7. 

Total fj 

Total European 

shipments 
Total ex- European 

shipments h/ . . . , 

Sea''TraZrTnl7r~"'^^ £j William,; 

Port Arth-ux, Vancouver and Prince Rupert. , d/ Black Sea shipments only. ' 

VlTet imports 1929-30 were 1,847,893 iDushels; for 1930-31 were 420,099 ^ 
iDushels. -f/- 'Total of trad.e figi:res induces Horth America as reported V. 
Broomiiall ' s. 



WH-74 



-37 



Taole 20- UNITED STATES: Im-oort? anc exports of wh-at including flo^or, 

s-oecified periods 



Item 



EXPORTS: 

Tfheat 

Flo 'or in terms of Wieat 

■Total 

IIvffORTS: (July- April) 

Iheat 

FloiJT in terms of vrheat. 

Total 

NET EXPORTS: 

iVheat 

Flour in terms of wheat 



Conrpiled from official sources, 



: July 1, 1930 

: to : 


July 1, 1931 
to 

May_3]„,_i9^^2 




l^GO "bushel^ 


: 65,205 
. : 50,083 


90,298 
•36 , 543 


. : 115,289 


! 125,941 


. : 15,640 
• • o 


I 11,358 
: 1 


.: 16,545 


I 11,359 


48,566 
.: 50,078 


1 78,930 
35,542 


98^544 


114,572 



- 0 - 



WT-74 



1- -' Smnmar; 
2 - Prices 



Ti3LES 



1-3 
3-4 
9-10 
10 - 12 
12 



3, - . \yo.:rld- Carry-over Prospects ° * * * ' 

4 - Crop Prospects ....... - • • 

5 - World (Trade and Carr^-over Prospects . .. . » • 

6 - The Cohtinerital .Eu_ropeari \VhG.at Market Situation During Hay . 13 

7 - V.Oieat and Flour Shipments to the Continent ........ oa 

8 - Crop Conditions ......... ^ . 

9 - Markets. . . . . : • • • • 

10 - Danuhe' 3asin ITneat Durimi April and May. 

11 - Markets and'-Pr ices 

12 - Deirelplpments in Government Aid . .............. • 



24 - 27 

28 

28 - 29 

31 - 33 



5 



1 - Vfeeat: Price per;l)\ishel at specified markets, March 4, 1952- 

June 10, 1932 .'.**' 

2 - l^'heat: Average price per hushel of parcels of specified , 

description c.i.f. at .Liverpool, specif ied periods .... 

3 - \^eat: ueiglited average cash prices at stated market s,hy v/eeks, 

-March 4 - June 10, 1931 axid 1932 ...... ° 

4 _ - ..meat: Closing prices of July futures, specified dates,. ... 

5 - Wheat: World supply, price and disappearance, 1921-22 to ^ 

1931-32 .... 

6 - . Wlieat carry-over, July 1, 1931 and 1932, ..... ^ 

7 - Price per hushel of dom.estic '//heat at specified markets, 

July 2, 1931 - June 1, 1932 .... 

8 - Price per bushel of continental v/heat, specified dates,. . . 14 

9 - Continental European stocks of wheat, the middle of ^^pril 

and middle of May 1931 and 19 32 

10 - Wheat and v/heat flour shipments to the Continent, stated 

periods, 1926-29 to 1931-32 . .... 

11 - Wlieat and wheat flotir shipments to Europe, stated periods . . lb 

12 - Sowings of "barley and oats to May 20, 1930,1931 and 1932 . . . 

13 - Germany: Price per hushel of domestic wheat and rye at 

specified markets, March 16 - Juno 1, 1932 

14 - Price per "bushel for wheat of comparahle grades at 

Budapest and Novi-Sad, monthly, January -x.pril and weekly 
April 2 - May 14, 1932 

15 - Y/lieat including flour: Exports from principal exporting 

countries, March, April and May 1931 and 1932 ...... 

16 - \fceat including flour: Net imports into European countries, 

1929-30, 1930-31 and July to latest date 1931-32 ..... 

17 - United States: Exports of wheat and wheat iiicluding flour, 

"by v;eeks, 1930-51 and 1931-32 

18 - Wheat including flour: Shipments from principal exporting 

regions, specified dates, 1950-51 and IS 1-32 

19 - Yifheat^including flour: Movement 'from principal exporting 

countries, 1928-29 - 1931-32 . 

20 - United States: Imports and exports of whet.t including flcur, 

specified periods . 



10 

14 
14 

15 

15 
16 
£3 

24 

30 
33 
34 
35 
35 
36 
37 



UNITED STATES DEPA2TI/J:NT OE AGRICULTURE 
Bureau of Agricultural Economics 
Washiiagton 



LIBRARY 



R !.- c rr f V D 



WH-75 




WORLD WHEAT FRO SPSS TS 



Sumraa ry 



Crop developments during June were apparently the primary cause of " 
the decline in wheat prices v/hich occurred during that month. In llorth 
America the spring wheat crops of the United States and Canada continued to 
develop favorably. By the end of June it had become the general opinion 
of the trade that the total wheat crop of Canada would be between 450,000,000 
and 500,000,000 bushels, and that the United States spring wheat crop would 
be well above 250,000,000. In addition, the whetit crops of western L'urope 
have progressed favorably, and while the European crops as a whole are late, 
indications are that total taJcings of Ai.;erican wheat by Europe may be 
somewhat smaller than had previously seemed likely. 

It now appears that the wheat crop of the Horthern Hemisphere outside 
Russia and China is likely to be about the same as that of 1931, Official 
and ^unofficial forecasts for 32 countries, which produce over 90 per cent 
of the total for the Northern Hemisphere, excluding Russia and China, 
indicate a crop of about 3,080,000,000 bushels compared with 3,073,000,000 
bushels of last year, r-'any of the figures included in this total are of 
course tentative. Most of the estimates are based on conditions as of July 
1 or earlier, rnd in the case of spring wheat tne final outturn is usually 
largely dependent upon weather conditions during July. 

There has been no significant chaiige in th*; indications as to carrj^- 
over July 1 for the world as a whole, although new estimates of he;xvy 
feeding of whea.t in the United States together with estimates of foreign 



WH-75 " -2- . 

stocks suggest that our last inonth's forecrLst of the United States carry-over 
may bo a little higli, and any revision in the United States carry-over v/ould 
correspondingly reduce the estimated world total. Final figures for the 
United States carry-over will not be available until about August 1, v/hen 
compilations of mill stocks will be available. 

Information from Russia indicates that tha.t country is likely to 
export less wheat during the next few months than in the corresponding months 
of 1931. The short supplies of wheat from Ibassia resulting from last year's 
spring wheat crop seem likely to result in more of the winter wheat crop 
being retained thoji was the case last year, aiid spring wheat acreage reported 
sov/n up to June 20, which '.vas practically the end of the sowing season, 
points to a reduction of about 6 per cent in the total wheat area of the 
country. 

Altogether wheat supplies available for the world, outside Russia rjid 

China, during the next six months appear likely to be a little sm-aller than 

those of last year. The European harvest, however, is reported to be later 

than it was a year ago, and this fact will tend to strengthen the deraojid 

for North American wheat within the next two months. ^ 

/' 

In the United States, the total wheat crop is now forecast at 
737,000,000 bushels. Such a crop would be the smallest produced since 1925 
when the production was estimated at 559,000,000 bushels. The United States 
ordinarily consumes about 500,000,000 bushels of wheat for flour and 
semolina. In addition to this about 75,000,000 bushels is used for seed at 
present acreage levels, and varying amounts are used for feed. Prior to 
1930 about 40,000,000 to 50,000,000 bushels appeared to be the average 
aJ-noui-it of wheat fed or wasted yearly, but it is estimr.ted that from the 1930 
crop 159,000,000 bushels and from the 1931 crop 184,0u0,000 bushels of wheat 



WH-75 



were fed to livestock "bv ijrowers. This hoav;/ feeding is the result partly 
of low wheat prices and partly of the short corn crop of 1930. While it 
is not expected that with lar^jer corn crops as irruch v/hOcat will be fed to 
livestock, it nevertheless seems likely that around 100,000,000 bushels is 
likely to be fed yearly as long as the price of v/heat continues at levels 
about as low as those of the past year. This would metm a total UrJ-ted States 
consumption of about 675,000,000 bushels , yearly , a fig-ure little below the 
present estimate of the 1932 crop. 

Crop Prospe cts 

Official and unoffici?J forecasts of the 1932 wheat production in 32 
countries total 3,083,000,000 bushels as compared with 3,072,042,000, bushels 
in the same couaitries last year when they produced 93 per cent of the estimat- 
ed Northern Hemisphere wheat crop and 82 per cent of the world total exclud- 
ing Russia and China. 

The indicated production of all wheat in the United States is 
756,971,000 bushels as compared with 894,204,000 bushels in 1931. Last year 
the v/inter wheat crop was \xnusually large and the spring crop -unusually small. 
This 'year the reverse situation exists. The spring wheat crop, however, is 
still subject to change depending lai'gely upon weather conditions during 
July a-nd early August. The production of winter vmeat is indicated at 
431,762,000 bushels and spring wheat at 305,209,000 bushels against 
789,462,000 and 104,742,000 bushels, respectively in 1931. 

Conditions in the wheat regions of Canada still indicate a crop of 
somewhere between 450,000,000 and 500,000,000 bushels. Until the official 
•seeded acreage estimate is reported in August, that factor will continue to 
be .an importaiit element of uncertainty in the size of the crop. The 
Dominion Bureau of Statistics reports the condition as of June 30 at 99 
per cent of a long time averaee. A yield equal to 99 per cent of the long- 
time averc^:;:e yield or 16.9 bushels to the acre would give a crop of- 
425,000,000 bushels on the intended acreage, or 440,000,000 bushels on an 
a.creage equal to last year, Y/eather conditions appear to have been favorable 
in June and early July, In Saskatchewan J-uns rainfall at importojit stations 
in the Vfneat Belt was enough above normal to offset the I.icy deficiency and 
rainfall the first six days of July was over half the normal ainount for all 
J"uly, Temperatures in June a.veraged above nonnal and may have had a somewhat 
detrimiental effect on the crop, but the first of July they were much below 
normal. In Alberta rainfall at important stations in June was slit,x:tly below 
normal but there had been ample fells earlier in the season and also the 
first wee.< in July. Tempero.tures in that province have not been hign, and 
conditioT.s generally are above average. I-iost wheat is now reported to be 
enough advanced to withstand attacks of grassixoppers. Wheat stem maggots raid 
web v/orms are present ar.d in Mmitoba sligi^t infections of black stem rust 
and leaf rust are reported. Local hail damage is also mentioned. 



WH-75 



-4-, 



Official estimates are available for 9 European countries. Of the 
4 countries of the lower Danube Basin, 3, Bulgaria, H-ungary and Rumania, 
have issued official estimates. These estimates total 218,438,000 bushels 
compared with the 1931 total of 269,043,000. In Yugoslavia private 
estimates indicate a crop of around 70,000,000 biishels. Hence, the total 
crop of the 4 Danubian countries is indicated to be about 288,000,000 
bushels compared with 368,000,000 last year. 

Of the 19 remaining countries of continental Europe, excluding Russia, 
only 5, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Netherlands and Spain, have issued official 
estimates. In Belgium the new crop is estimated to be 13,926,000 bushels 
compared with 13,817,000 bushels last year. The German estimate is for a 
crop of 183,423,000 bushels against 155,546,000 bushels in 1931. Greece 
is estimated to have a crop of 18,372,000 bushels compared with 12,199,000 
bushels; Netherlands a crop of 13,742,000 against 6,761,000; and Spain a 
crop of 161,671,000 compared with 134,427,000 bushels in 1931. The first 
official forecast of the production in Germany is 133 , -i2j3.., 000 bushels, an 
increase of 28,000,000 bushels over 1931 and 47,000.000 bushels over the 
average production during the years 1927-1931. A crop well above last 
year is also expected in France.* Trade estimates ronge from 290 ,000 ,000 
to 330,000,000 bushels as compared with last year's official estimate of 
269,532,000 bushels. The Berlin office of the Bureau of Agricultural 
Economics estimates a crop of about 305,000,000 bushels. The estimate of 
the Berlin office of the Bureaii of Agricultural Economics for the 19 
.continental European countries, other than the 4 of the lower Daiiube Basin, 
is for a crop of 1,120,000,000 bushels which, added to the indicated 
production . in the lower Danube Basin, indicates a total production for the 
23 countries of QontinentalvSirope, excluding Russia, of 1,408,000,000 
bushels compared with 1,402,652,000 bushels harvested in these countries 
last year, , . ■ . 

Tiie wheat harvest was almost finished in Sicily by the end of June 
and was progressing rapidly in the southern section of continentcal Italy. 
Preliminary reports from these regions indicate yields even above last 
year, when the outturn was above a.verage, Wheat prospects for the couiatr;:,'' 
as a whole are somewhat less favorable, although a satisfactory crop is 
expected. The trade is generally optimistic ,. but the Italian Minister 
of Agriculture recently expressed himself more conservatively than tne . 
trade on the basis of . the unfavorable weather previously experienced.. 
Latest reports announced less favorable weather in. northern Italy, witn 
lodging of grain from heavy rains, wind and hail. Rust damage is said to 
be greater than previously expected. An interesting feature is the shift 
from soft to hard wheat which occurred in the South this year, where an 
increase of fully 25 per cent in hard wheat is said to have tpjcen place 
at the expense of soft whea.t, . ■ 



WH-75 



-5- 



The hot, sultry weather prevailing in the c-^Miitries of the Danuhe 
Basin during the first ten da^'s of July was verj- -.favorable to the wheat 
crop. Ripening was too rapid and the cars are not v/ell filled^ Iiaportant 
dpjnat^e froiTi rust, hail and insect pests is reported throu/;:hout the Basin. 
Estimates of production r?jige froni about one-fifth to one- third less than 
last year when the 4 countries harvested a crop of 368,000,000 bushels. 

The combined harvest in the 3 North African countries, Algeria, 
Morocco and Tunis, is expected to be about the sprac as in 1931. The esti- 
iHcate of the crop in India has not been chcn^ed durin.o the past laonth a.nd 
remains at 340,928,000 bushels as compared with 347,387,000 bashels a 
year ago. 

The total 1932 wheat area in Russia is 85,939,000 acres compared v/ith 
91,933,000 acres in 1931, or a reduction of 6.5 per cent on the basis of 
preliminary reports up to June 20. The spring acreage sown up to June 20 
was 53.6 million acres as compared with 62,5 million acres sown up to the 
corresponding date in 1931 and a final 1931 spring wheat area of 52.9 
million acres. 



WH-75 _g_ 

Tabic 1.- Wheat: Production in specified cou::trics, 1928-29 to 1332-33 



Country 



United States 

Canada 

Mexico 

Total, 3 countries .:, 

Continental Europe : . ,-: 

ITorway v? 

Sweden : 

Denmark . , : 

Netherlands : 

Selgium • 



1928-29 



1,000 

bushels 
926,130 
566,726 

-^-1^.031 



JL_^5 0o,&37 



vr,, 798 

: 18,331 

:. 12,214 

: 7,336 

: 17,215 

'^roiice : 281,285 

Spain : 122,640 



7,546 
228,598 
, 4,474 
141,593 
12,917 
52,861 
13,085 
59,219 
6,327 
2,499 
1,037 
998 



990,973 



Portugal 

Italy 

Switzerland 

Germany 

Austria ; . . . . 

Czechoslovakia .... 

Greece 

Polcuid 

Lithumia 

Latvia 

Lstonia 

Finland 

Totavl 19 coun. ., 

Bulgaria 

H-onsary 

R'omania, 

Yu^^oslavia 

Total 4 countries 

Tot-al 23 countries : 1,358.17^^ 
IJorth Africa: : 

Morocco : 24, 749 

Algeria : 30,339 

T'^iis : 13,705 

Total 3 countries: 68,79 3 
Asia: : 

India : 290,864 

Japan : 30,812 

Chosen : 

Total 3 countries: 



49,153 
99,211 
115,544 
.103,294 



367,202 



8, 595 



330,271 



Totol 32 coui itries: 3,261 .126 



1929-30 



1,000 

bv.shel s 
812,573 
304,520 
11,353 



1, 128,426 



750 
19,011 
11,772 
5,457 
13,225 
337,252 
154,245 
10,636 
260,125 
4,372 
123,062 
11,559 
52,902 
11,-434 
65,862 
9,329 
2,336 
1,260 

764_ 

1.095 ,363 



33,195 
74,985 
99,753 
94,999 



302.9 32 



1.398.29 5 



31,754 
33,307 



77,380 



320,751 
30,496 
8,320 



359.547 



2,963^648 



1930_31 



1,000 
bughcls 

853,160 
. 420 , 672 
11.446 



1,2.90,278 



720 
20,819 
10,216 
6,055 
13,236 
228,105 
146,700 
13,816 
210,071 
3,601 
139,217 
12,008 
50,606 
9,709 
82,321 
11; 527 
4,062 
1,635 
1.210 



965.434 



57,317 
84,339 
130,771 
80.32 6 



352,753 



1.518.1 87 



21,302 
32,442 
10.59 8 



390,843 
29,537 
3.985 



429,365 



3,101.972 



1931-52 



1,000 
bushels 
894,204 
304,144 
16.226 



1, 214.574 



592 
18,047 
10,053 
6,761 
13,817 
269,632 
134,427 
12,999 
247,935 
4,551 
155,546 
9,3,84 
41,232 
12,199 
83,220 
8,340 
3,388 
1,736 
1 .161 



1,034.850 



61,195 
72,553 
135,295 
98.789 



367.832 
1,-102.652 ' 



29,684 
25,539 
13,953 



69.186 



347,387 
30,892 
3.341 



386.520 



3.j073^P_42_ 



1932-33 



1,000 
bushels 

736,971 
a/(475,000) 
9.06 4 



1,221.035 



(21,600) 

15,742 
13,926 
(305,000) 
161,671 
(14,300) 
(242,000) 

183,423 

(47,000) 
18,372 

(72,000) 
(9,200) 



1.139 



b/ 1,120. OOP 



55,902 
66,505 
98,031 
c/ (70.000) 



288,438 



1,408.438 



d/ (23,000) 
29,983 
e/ 17,269 



70.252 



340,928 
34,533 
8 .304 



533.755 



5 , 0b5.000 



Compiled from official sources and reports of the International Institute 
of Agriculture except as otherwise noted, 
a/ Based on v«ea,ther and on condition Jiuie 30. b/ Total production in 19 countries 
estimated by the Berlin office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Estimates 
for individual countries given in parenthesis are also by the Berlin office. 
cj Rough estimate based on information from the Belgrade office of the Bureau of 
Agricultural Economics, d/ Estimated by Asst. Agricultural Commissioner i.iallory. 
o/ Semi-official. 



WH-75 



-1- 



Whoat Pric es 

Both c.'^3h a,nd future prices at the principal v/orld markets declined 
during June, During the last week of June, hov/ever, there v/as a sli;:^ht 
inprovement in futures prices. In the United States the decline v/as 
associated with reports- of favorable development of tlio sprin^-. wheat crop 
in the United States and Canada and the movement of new crop hard winter 
v/hcat in the Southwest. Since the middle of Ju:ie, prices have fl\ictuated 
within a narrow rriigc aiTd have shown no marked trend. Wiaeat testing 
above average in ^jrotein advanced in price at Kansas City during the last 
week of June -aiid the first t.vo weeks of July because of the competition 
of mill bia;^'ing for high protein wheat. 

July futures at Chicago v;ere 54 cents per bushel on June 4 and 
declined to 48 cents on July 8. At Liverpool the decline in July futures 
was greater thaxi that at Chicatjo during this period. On J-cuie 4 Liverpool 
y/as 5 cents above Chicago, whereas, on July 2, only 2 cents above and on 
July 8, 3 cents above. 

ITo. 2 Hard 1/Vinter at Konsas City averaged 53.1 cents per bushel for 
the week ended June 3 and declined to an avemge of 42.6 for the v/eek 
ended June 24. Subsequent advmces resulted in an average of 44.9 for the 
week ended July 8. ITo. 1 Dark Northern Spring at Minneapolis followed 
a similar source during the same period a,nd averaged 65.2 for the week 
ended July 8. l^o. 3 Manitoba Northern at Winnipeg likewise declined during 
Jxine aiid advanced slightly during the first week of July. Buenos Aires 
near futures declined during the first three weeks of Juno and advrnced 
slightly during the last week to a:i average of 46.4 cents for tne week 
ended July 1. Domestic wheat at Berlin declined rapidly during the first 
two weeks of Jiuie, then strengthened because of active mill buying raid 
small offerings during the next two weeks, but c^'ain declined rapidly 
during the first week of July. Domestic wheat at Pnris declined during 
Jione, largely' as a result of the offerings of new crop wheat from Northern 
Africa and prospects of a large crop in France. Th^re was some slight 
improvement in prices during the first v/eek of July. Prices of domestic' 
wheat at Milan declined only slightly during Ju:ie, because of relatively 
heaver mill buying. During the first week of July when the nev; crop 
began moving in southern Italy, prices declined materially. 



WH-75 ■ -8- 



Table 2.- Wheat: Weighted average casn prices at stated markets 





Week : 

ended 


All classes: No,2 : No. 1 : 
aaxd grades :Hard Winter: Dk.lJ. Spring: 
six markets :Kans8.s City : Minneapolis: 


Ho. 2 : 

AmlDer Dunara: 
Minneapolis : 


No . 2 : 

Red Winter : 
St. Louis 


Western 
white 
Seattle a/ 






1931 : 


1932 : 


1931 : 


1932 :1931 : 


1932 : 


1931 : 


1932 : 


1931 : 


1932 


1931 ; 


1932 






■ C en t s ; 


Cents: 


Gents 


Cents: Cents: 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents : 


Cents: 


^nts_: 


Cents 


Apr. 

June 


17 ) 


76 : 
: 68 


62 : 
55 : 


74 
73 


57 : 84 - 
48 : 75 


75 
65 


77 
: 62 


: 76 
: 56 


80 : 
74 : 


58 
50 


: 68 
: 58 


68 
: 56 


J une 




r 71 
: 64 


• 54 : 


74 


46 : 80 


63 


: 65 


: 57 


: 82 : 


49 


: 57 


: 54 




: 49 : 


60 
49 


. 43 : 71 


: 61 


63 


: 55 


: 74 : 


47 


: 56 


: 54 


July 


1 


• 52 


: 49 : 


43 : 72 


: 62 


: 60 


: 55 


: 57 : 


47 


: 57 


: 53 




• 48 


: 47 : 


45 


: ■ 45 : 69 


: 65 


: 68 


: 54 


: 50 : 


48 


: 62 























a/ Weekly average of daily cash quotations basis No. 1 sacked 30 days delivery, 
b/ High and low for period. (Apr. IS-June 17) 1932. (Apr. 20-June 19) 1931. 



Table 3.- Wheat: Closing prices of July futures 



Date 



Apr. 18) 

June 17) 

June 18 .... 

25 

July 1 

8 



Chicago 



1931 



Cents 

65 
57 

58 
58 
56 
52 



1932 



Cents 



61 
48 

48 
49 
e/48 
48 



Ko,nsas City 



1931 :1932 



Cents: Cents 



58 
50 
52 
50 



56 
42 

44 
42 



43 :e/41 
43 : 42 



Minneapolis 



"Winnipeg 
a/ 



Liverpool : Buenos 
a/ :Aires b/ 



1931 : 


1932 : 


1931 


:1932 • 


1931 


C en t s : 


Cents 


Cents 


: C en t s 


Cents 


74 


66 : 


66 


: 50 


68 


60 : 


54 


: 59 


: 45 


59 


66 


53 


. 61 


: 46 


61 


66 


. 53 


: 62 


: 47 


: 61 


64 


:e/52 


: 61 


:e/46 


:e/59 


59 


: 54 


: 57 


: 47 


: 57 



1952 :1931 ;1932 



;ents :Cents:Cents 



52 : 50 

52 : 46 

50 :d/46 

51 :d/48 
e/50 :d/48 

51 :d/46 



a/ Conversions in 1932, at noon bu^ving rate of exchange, ly31, at par. 
b/ Prices are of day previous to other prices. 

II High aiid low for period. (Apr. 18-June 17) 1932. (Apr. 20-Jmie 19) 1931. 
d/ August futures, 
e/ Friday's price. 



50 
45 

45 
47 
46 
46 



Table 4.- \Tiieat: Average price per bushel of parcels of specified 
description, c.i.ft at Liverpool, specified periods, 

19ol-1952 



Period 



Ho. 3 Manitoba 
ilor thorn 



1931 



J an. 
Feb. 
Mar . 
Apr. 

Ivlay 
June 



Week ended 



Apr, 



June 



July 



15 
22 
29 

5 
13 
20 
27 

3 
10 
17 
24 

T 



Cents 
71 
72 
71 
72 
69 
67 

68 
68 
71 
75 
71 
70 
70 
71 
66 
66 
67 
65 
68 
67 



Rosaf e 



1 932 


1931 


Cents 




Cent: 






61 


64 










61 


65 




64 












61 


64 






65 




61 






64 


D<J 






DO 




DO 


oi 




C O 


62 




: bo 


62 




: 65 


62 




63 


61 




61 


55 




: 62 






: 61 






: 62 






: 60 



1952 



Cents 
52 
55 
57 
57 



55 
56 
58 
58 
57 
56 
59 
60 
60 
60 
56 



Compiled from Brooraiiall's Corn Trade ITews. 

Table 5.- Vfneat: Price per bushel at specified markets, May 6, 1932- 

July 8, 1932 





: Kansas : 


Minne- : 


V;inni- 


Bueno s : 


Liver- : 


Oreat 








Week 


: City : 


aioolis: 


peg 


Aires : 


pool 


Britain: 


Berlin 


Ps.ris : 


Milan 


ended 


: a/ : 




c/ : 


d/ : 


e/ : 


i/ : 


g/ : 


g/ 


g/ 




: Cents : 


Cents 


Cents : 


Cents 


Cents, ; 


Cents 


Cents : 


Cents ; 


Cents 


May 6 . . 


: 51.1 


63.9 : 


47.9 . 


47.4 


60.7 : 


59.8 : 


177 : 


182 : 


173 


13 .. 


: 52.5 


69.4 


49.1 


• 48.3 


61.2 : 


59.8 : 


178 


182 


175 


20 .. 


: 53.2 


• 71.0 


49.5 


: 50.0 


. 60.6 ■ 


60.7 


179 


184 


174 


27 .. 


: 56.6 


74.3 


: 49.9 


50.1 


61.8 


51.8 


: 171 


185 ; 


170 


June 3 . . 


: 55.1 


: 69.0 


: 48.8 


: 50.4 


: 60.9 


61.8 


173 


187 


164 


10 .. 


: 47.5 


: 64.8 


: 43.0 


: 48.1 


: 54.6 ; 


63.2 


: 158 


184 


: 161 


17 ,. 


: 45.9 


: 63.4 


: 42.4 


: 45.5 




52.7 


: 151 


: 179 


: 150 


24 .. 


: 42.5 


: 61.1 


: 41.6 


: 46.2 






: 153 


: 177 


: 162 


July 1 .. 


: 42.8 


: 61.9 


: 41.6 


: 46.4 






: 162 


: 179 




8 . . 


: 44.9 


: 65.2 


: 42.4 








: 152 


• 181 


: 147 



Prices are averaees of daily prices for weeks ending Friday except as follows: 
Great Britain prices of home grom wheat are averages for the week ending Saturday. 
Berlin, Paris, and Milan prices are Wednesday/ quotations. Prices at Winnipeg, 
Buenos Aires and Liverpool are converted to United States money at the current 
ratws of exchaiige beginning with the week ended September 25. Prices at Berlin, 
Paris and Milan are converted at tne current rates beginning September 19^1. 
a/ llo. 2 Hard Winter, b/ ITo. 1 Dark northern Spring, c/ No. 3 Manitoba Northern, 
d/ IToar futures, c/ All sales of imported parcels, f/ Home grovm wheat in 
Englaiid and VJ3l.cs. Domestic. 



.-10- 



Protein Prerrdtun 



Preiniums for protein in v/heat testing 11*5 or 'better have lieen increas- 
ing at Kansas City and MiniLeapolis during June and the first part of Julj» 
Millers have Doen huyinc; now crop hard winter wheat at Kansas City .-rather 
freely this year and payiny, substantial preniiuiris for protein. Thes:e relative- 
ly high protein premiuriis diiring the early part oi the hard v/inter wl^eat- -mar- 
keting period may he accoimted for in part hy the ahsence of old whe.at of- 
suitahl;.? protein content for millin.;;- and also "by the, stiall crop of hard win- - • 
ter wheat this year, ks usual the early shipments of hard winter v/heat have ■ • 
shov/n a vride range ir. protein content, hut the qu.antit^'' of new wheat testing- ■ 
high in protein is reported to he smaller than for the corresponding, period 
last year. It is prohahle, therefor e^ that lontil the spring wheat crop he- 
comes available for milling purposes that millers will have, to depend on the 
limited supplies of high protein wheat in the carry-over of old wheat and 
from the short crop of hard v-inter wheat, \ . , : ■■ 

The spring wheat crop is reported to. he in excellent condition .and the 
production for this year, based on conditions as of July 1, is foreoas.i to 
he 305,000,000 bushols which is considerably ahove the short- crop of .last 
year and vrcll ahove the average production of spring wheat. There a,T.Q no in- 
dications as yet as to the protein content of the new. spring v;heat crop, but 
if it is average in protein content spring vi'heat millers will have adecuate, . 
supplies of spring wheat of satisfactory protein content, and will, there- . . 
fore, need to depend less than last year on the supplies of protein, from the 
hard winter wheat crop.- . . ; . . . . 

Farmers in the hard ?/inter wheat section v/ho hc.ve reason to think thD-t 
their v/heat will tost 11.5 per cent protein or more should havo their v/heat 
tested and attempt to secure the premium for their protein v/hilo these pre- 
mnums are availahle. 

Movement and Storage of the . Hard. -Winter V.'hoat Crop • 



The movement ox the 1922 hard winter wheat crop is now -.v/c 11. under v;ay. 
The peak in the movemiOnt of the hard vdnter wheat crop, usually comes d\iring 
the second v/eok of July. This year the earliest movement of the crop .was. 
somevv'hat earlier than the average. The first car of r;ev; wheat having heen 
reported on June 2, which was about a week or ton days' earlier, than the first 
car moved last: year. This year's- crop' hc'gan mbvin;.: ixi' volurae during the 
last v/eek of June and the movement was' rclativbly' heavy during, the first v/eek 
of July. It is too early to estimate the' peak of this _ y^'ar's movement, hut 
it is proba.blc that it v/ill come somotim.c- during the first two v/eok s of Jul^'. 
The factors, v/hich have for the past four or five- years been causing the 
pealc movement of hard winter v/hoat to he earli-er and relatively higher than 
in form.cr years, appear to bo somev/hat loss effective thaji they v/erc during 
the 1928, 1929 and 1930 seasons hut possihly ahout the same as last year. 
Because of the very short crop in zho hard v/inter v.heat section this year, 
the volume to move to market will he considerahle smaller tlian the record 
movemc^nt of last yor.r and somev;hat smaller than average, '^ae production of 
of hard winter wheat in the five States, Nohraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tezas 
and Colorado, was forecast at 100,000,000 hushels this year compared with 
44,141,000 bushels last year ana the 5-year average 1924-1928, of 280,000,000 
bushels. 



\7II-75 



-11- 



Stora^e facilii;ie3 at terr.inal r arke'oS appe.-j.- to T^e adequate to han- 
dle the niovGinent o.i t/is hard wi.^tor wheat crop v/itliout' cc-n^estion, 'iPae vis- 
ihle supply 01 *v;heat on Jul;'- Z v;as 153,000,000 oushelij compared \;ith 204, 
000,000 for the cor:.'esponcMn3 date last year. StocLs of all grr.in in store 
in puhlic elevators at 14 principal iuarkets on Jul;;' 9 v;ore 141,000,000 hush- 
ols compared v/ith 172,000,000 on July 11, 1931. Storage space at .these mar- 
kets has "been increased duriiifj the ;,-ear so that v/ith smaller stocks than 
last ;ear and a lar;;tr rated capacity,'', these mai-kets are in a hetter posi- 
tion to handle the crop this ;-ear than the;-" were last. The unfilled space 
in puulic elevators available for storing ^rain on July 9 totaled ahout 
93,000,000 "bushels compared v/ith a space of aoout 55,000,000 "bushels on 
July 11, 1931. 

Ta"blc o - Stocks all ;;;,rain, imfilled stora{^e space and percentage of 
total space iill)d in public elevators at 14 principal markets 



Ilarket 



Kansas City 


• • • • ' 




Hiitf^.rn* nnnn . 








1 

14 


Oman a 


• • • • 






• IG 




: 3D 


Minneapolis 


• • • • 


41 


Milwaulcce •• 


• • • • 


5 


St. Joseph . 


• • • • 


: 4 


St. Louis .. 


* • • • 


. 


Galveston .. 


• • • • ! 




llov/ Orleans 












1 



Stoclcs : ' Per- : Available: 

all : ccntage : space 

jrain : fil_led ; unfilled 
per 1,000 

cent "bus ho Is 



1,000 

hushels 



_ July 9,__12j!i 

S t Vc'k s ~: Per- : A v ai 1 a"b 1 e 
all : ccnta('?;e : space 

1.000 "per 1,000 
cent "bushels 



'",'oo"o" 

"bushel 'c 



972 
751 
119 
■360 
617 
766 
244 
058 
967 
624 
525 
975 
862 
064 



71 
37 
40 
76 
90 
71 
68 
45 
64 
72 
65 
52 
67 
24 



7,082 
1,929 
1,401 
1.736 



12,068 
13,344 
4,777 
2,008 
1,656 
1,700 
2,175 
2,013 
2,943 



33,334 
4,337 
1,438 
13,250 
11,579 
27,691 
24,838 
1,540 
4,262 
5,440- 
1,360 
1,47 V 
2,242 
313 



86 
55 
51 
67 
58 
35 
41 
70 
55 
70 
16 
27 
21 
07 



2,531 

2,759 
1,072 
4,357 
6,388 
20,165 
29,720 
396 
2,713 
1,840 
5, 855 
3,673 
7,365 
3,715 



Total 



: 173,204 



55,455 140,789 



92,620 



The Continental European Vfn^at L'larket Situ. -.t ion Du-ring June a/ 



The dov/nv/ara tsndonc^' of v/orld v/hoat prices and improvement in v/heat 
crop prospects on the Co:i.tinent d-urin^; Ju e have caused renov/cd reserve to- 
vard lor^isn wheats oy Contirontal "buyDrs, notv/ithstanding a"bnornally lev; 
stocks in practically all the importing covurbrios. Tlie rapid progress of 
the continental crops in recent v/ecks, and the success that "i^aropo is hav- 
ing in stretchin,; its supplies, wh.ic:;. are already hein.;; roilcctod in the 
reti.ghtening of milling x-estrictions, poin: to the prooa'oility t"nat most 
of the Continent v/ill "bo ahlc to tidi itseli' over -until harvest v;i thout the 
necessity of tlic lar-;e-ccale "buying- which seemed luir.voidahlc vuitil a short 
time aro. This prospect, ho\:;ovcr, presupposes a normal htvrvcst date, v'ith- 



a/ Eased on report of A.-7;r i evil tur al Attach* Lloyd Stoero, Berlin Germrn;, 
June 50, 1932, cupyl ^mentod j„- cable Jul:; 11, 1932. 



\VH-75 



-12- 



out dela^'- or damage to th.e crop Idj unl'avorable v/eather in Jiilj and Aug-ast, 
At - the present time it appears that the harvest v/ill he late. 

European "buying durin;:; Juxie has cont:".nued to oe of a hand-to-mouth 
character, despite smaller ai-rivals in recent v/eehs than in the correspond- 
ing period a year ago. Purchases of foreign grain during the rirst half of 
the month, follov/ir; rumors of impending liquidation cf the Canadian '■vheat 
Pool, v/ere particularly cautious, with Frsjace, Holland, Eelgiuin and Sv/itzer- 
land chiefly taking Hani to has, and Italy interested rit<ee in Australians, 
Argentines and duruiv:s. Active huyin:.; of new crop domestics diiring this 
period also dulled interest in forc-igu descriptions. In the second half 
huying of foreign v/heatc was sporadically lively, hut the m.onth closed virith 
the demand relatively light. 

Continental markets also continued to "oo disturhed in June hy the 
persistent uncertair^ty in the political and general economic outlook. Spec- 
ulative huj'ing remains at a minimuja hecause of the possihility of imf ore- 
seen governmental measures and other dovelopm.ents. On the other hand, the 
vmcertain price ovLtlook, restrictions on importation and milling, financial 
stringency, and other ohstacles, continue to work against the acquisition 
of grain reserves, notv/ithst anding. lov/ stocks, lov/ prices and imcortainty 
ahout the soundness of moinerous currencies. Tlie Continental grrdn trade 
has "fiev/ed with renewed uneasiness as to thi price outlook the improved 
prospects for a large crop in Car:ada, v/hose wheat is of a grade figuring 
largely in continental demand at a time when imports of foreign grain are 
restricted. Uneasiness has also been increased hy the threat' of additional 
pressure incident to possihle Pool liquidation. 

Prices for domestic wheat on the chief" continental markets have moved 
downward during June in sjrmpathy v.ath the v;orld movement. This was particu- 
larly the case in Franco and Ita.l;'-. On the other htaid, in Central iilurope, 
particularly Poland, Czechoslovakia end Austria, vflicct prices were rather 
firm, a tendency undouhtedly seasonal, to a consider aoie extent, with dom- 
estic stocks now reduced and restrictions on iraports in effect in most of 
this region. 

'wheat stocks over the Continent as a whole continue to be regai'ded 
as light, in some comitries extremely-' ligh.t. 'The decj'oase in supplies of 
domestic wheats in the past month, however, has prohably been no larger 
than normal, hecause of decreased cons-oinpti on. 



- 13 - 



Ta"ble 7 - Price per bushel of .doruootic 

July ?., 1951- Jul; 



o. IS 32 



Date 


: P ai- i s 


: Jiilan 


Berlin 


: Pra,^ue 


: Vienna 


: Pozna.n 


XV 0 1. 




— — — — — — - 

: Genes 


: uencs 


\ C e j''. 0 s 




■ l~^p.-r, -f c; 

■ o t; J I 0 o 


July 2 


; 190 


: 124 


; 172 


; 1H4 




: 84 


Aug. 5 


: 167 


: ; 130 


; 120 


! 116 


: 104 


; 60 


Sept. 2 _a/ 


158 


: 139 


! 151 


; 102 


; 97 


; 55 


Oct. 7 


165 


: 134 


: 135 ; 


110 


98 


61 


Nov. 4 


: 165 


: 141 


; 147 


: 116 


: 114 


70 


Dec. 2 


162 


: 144 


; 143 


: 117 


: 118 


! 76 


1932 














Jan. 6 : 


168 


J ~— — 


143 ! 


115 


: 120 


; 7'5 


Fet . 5 


158 


158 


155 


113 : 


118 


; 72 


ITar . 2 : 


175 


172 


159 : 


117 


119 


74 


Apr . 8 


184 


168 ! 


167 


119 


125 


81 


Hay 4 : 


182 1 


173 


177 


119 


131 


89 


June 1 : 


187 


164 : 


173 : 


115 


132 ! 




8 : 


184 : 


161 


168 : 


115 : 


132 ! 


91 


15 : 


179 : 


160 ; 


151 


115 : 


132 : 




22 : 


.177 


152 : 


163 : 


115 : 


132 ! 




29 : 


179 : 




162 : 


115 : 


133 : 




July 5 : 


181 : 


147 • : 


152 : 


115 : 


155 





a/ Beginning at this date conversions are made at cui'rent rates of e:cchange. 

Table 8 - Continental European stoclcs of wheat, the middle of May 
and the middle of June, 1931 and 1932 



1931 



Location 


: J.Iiddle" of 
: Hay 


: Middle of 
: June 


! Middle of 
: May 


: Middle of 
: June 




r ■■■■'iVooo 




1 , 000 


1,000 


1,000 




: "bushels 


• 


"bushels 


"bushels 


"bushels 








^"■T,T9"c" 


45'0 ' 


• 941 








1,6 50 


940 . 


700 


Berlin (wheat and flour ] 


:a/ 1,380 




1,190 • 


a/' 1,170 : 


b/ 870 


Hamh-ui'g (rough estimate) 


: 620 




1,360 . 


• ' 1,290 : 


550 






* • 
• 


37 ■ 


510 : 


170 






• 


4, 000 . 


9,900 : 




German "second hand" 


• 


• 
• 












• 

a 




d/ 22,000 : 


o/ 20,500 



1932 



a/ End of May. ^'^^ of JT-U:'-i-e. c/ In warehouses and flour mi 

flour); these totals are estimated Tc include 95 per cent of the 
stocks actually existing and therefore, must contain most of the 
Ham'burg, and Bremen-Brake data, d/ May 1, e/ June 1. 

ViTieat ar.d flonjr shiriments to the Continent 



lis (wheat and 
second hand 
Berlin, 



Y/orld shipments o'f wheat and flour to the Continent, and Europe generally, 
during the first three \^eoks of June, v;ere relatively light. There- was no 
movement from Russia, and but small quantities fron the Danu"be, with the "bu-lk 
"being supplied "by North America and Argentina. 



Talole 9.- V/lieat and v/lieat flo-ar shipncnts to the Continent, 
stated periods, 1928-29 to' 1931-32 



Jovlt weeks ended 


1928-29 


1929-30 


' • 1930-31 


1931-32 




IjOOO tusliels 


1..QQ0 'bus::-3ls 


1,000 tusliels 


1,000 'oushels 


Auc. 27 




, l-±, o oU 


oc con 


I'i, UOU 


Sept. 24 


, 0'~' , C7 O U 


i -'- 'S'^'^ 


! <ocS , X OU 




Oct, 22 


■ O-L , OOU 






; lo , X cu 


Uov, 19 




, J. u , f DU 




Pf^ PAT) 


Dec. 17 . 




! ly , 5cU 


! Id, UUU 


• 1 Q PA"1 


Jan, 14 , 




, y , 'iy D 


, J- "Jj 3*^U 






^3 iz ~\ '~>r\ 
<oo, IcdU ' 


14, 760 


! 1 / , 440 






<i D, 540 


1d,3oO 


iy,24U 


; 1 , UUU 


Apr. 8 ' 


22,720 


15,520 


: : 16,320 


: 17,560 


IficiJ' U >..... 


1 y , 8 40 


13,000 


2P,600 


', £iU,ooU 


,Tt]ti(-5 


lo oor\ 

oc , ooU ; 


20, 520 


, 34, rbU 


, 1 Q OCA 


July 1 


OU , UUU 


' <iU,<d40 


; ib, cdu 


, X y < 'iuu 


An 1 f.o .TnT \r 1 




TOO d 
Iby , OOO 


o rrn TOO 


. PT R AATl 


Aoove shipnents 










supplied "by: 










Danulje 


2,672 


14, 832 ' : 


13,472 


28,768 


Russia ; 


8 ; 


3,520 


16,064 


8,660 


Overseas ; 


345,240 


170,984 : 


229,584 : 


180,992 



TalDle 10.- tThoat and vrtieat flour sliipnents to E-urope, stated 

periods, 1928-29 to 1931-32 



?o-ar V7ee>s ended 


1928-29 


1929-30 


1930-31 


• 1931-32 






1,000 "bushols: 


1,000 l^ushels 


1,000 bushels 


: 1.000 iDushcl 


Au2. 




47,160 


■45,600 


: 50,480 


46,120 


Sept, 




50,800 


41 , 320 


54,080 


52,800 


Oct. 




50,600 


40,120 


53,080 ; 


50,840 


Nov, 


19 ; 


59,560 


30,120 


58,160 


50,040 


Dec, 


17 ; 


53,200 


30,160 


37,560 


35,880 


Jan. 


14 


52,960 


: 27,720 


30,360 


I 33,800 


PelD. 




60,440 


36', 960 


43,280 ; 


42,600 


LI ox. 




60,120 


32,720 i 


43,200 


46,560 


AiDr . 




51,720 


31,360 


! 38,640 


43,080 


Hay 




'•12 , 680 


: 26,520 


45,920 


49,400 


June 




55,120 


: 37,680 


61 , 480 


- 49,950 


July 




51 . 320 


: 39 , 920 


: 46, 540 


39 , 440 


Aug. 




635,680 


420 , 200 


562.880 


540,520 


Adovq 


shipments 










supplied "by: j 












2,672 


! 18,008 


14,320 ; 


37,792 




8 


: 5,912 


: 96,288 


73,080 




: 633,000 


! 396,280 


; 452,272 


429,648 



-16- 



Ri:issl a . , 

The 19 32 s'^ring sowing; r esults 

Tlic Russian spring seeding campaign is practically finished, with 
total sov/ings to June 20 of 2 33,492,000 acres compared with 235,444,000 acres 
sown lay the same time a year ago_, and 259,766,000 acres, the final acreage 
in the spring of 1931. This year's acreage plan, Vvrhich called for an increase, 
of 5,5 per cent over that of last year, was thus executed hy 92,3 per cent on 
June 20 - the latest date availahlo. 



As seemed prohahle at the 'beginning of the sowing campaign, the un- 
satisfactory development of sowings hy individual peasants has "been chiefly ■ 
responsihle for the failure to complete the plan. Sowings "by this group were 
only 77.0 per cent of the plan, while those of the Collectives and Soviet 
Farms reached 95,5 and 102.9 per cent respectively. The following tahtdation 
shows the shift hy individual groups, v/hich has taken place in Russian agri- 
culture during the past year: 

June 2 0. 193 2 Ju ne 20, 1931 

1.000 acres 

Collective Tarms 165,248 144,781 

State Farms 26,627 21,018 

Individual Peasants 41,617 69,645 

Wheat scedings are greatly "oehind last year, having reached only 
53,601,000 acres on June 20 this year compared with 61,574,000 acres sown on 
June 20 last year, and 62,899,000 acres, the final figure for spring wheat 
acreage in 1931. In view of the lateness of the season, there is no douht 
that this year's spring wheat acreage in Russia is materially helow last year. 
This reduction, however, is partially offset "by the considerahle increase 
under winter wheat, which is reported at 32,338,000 acres compared with 
29,039,000 acres a year ago. Total 1932 acreage of wheat sown to June 20 
in Russia, therefore, amounts to 85,939,000 acres compared with 91,938,000 
acres, the final area figure for 1931, or a reduction of 6,5 per cent. 

Progress of oats scedings has "been similar to that of spring wheat, 
inasmuch as the preliminary reported acreage is also "below that of 1931, 
35,148,000 acres having "been sown to 'June 20 as compared with 41,041,000 acres 
a year ago, Tlie harley acreage is also sliglatly helow that of last year. 



Sowings of Spring crops 
as of June 20, 1932 



In percentage of In percentage of.. In-iporCcntage 

Acres June 20, 1931 ■filial 1931 of 1932 plan 

1,00 0_ Per cent Per cent Per cent 

^eat 53,601 85.8 85.2 82.8 

Oats 35,148 85.6 82.7 78.0 

Barley 15,456 98.0 99,6 88,2 

All crops 233,492 99.2 97,4 92,3 



-16^. 



The unsiiccessf-ol 1931 spring sowing cam:oaign, like that of this year, 
was ch.aracterizcd hy a long drawn-out seeding period, which, under conditions 
in raan;^' of the important Russian wheat producing, rogio-ias,. places the harvest 
under considerahlo risk of domage from weather conditions hoth in the early 
stages of ..rrowth and at the time of matuu^ing, last yoar'-s spring wheat yields 
were very .^oor in large sections of the Southeast-, "and it has often hecn cni-- 
phasiz'ed "by the Soviet press that late sowing was 'd no, of .'t ho; factors responsi- 
ve for the lea- go losses in yields last year'. The. situation, is similar^ this 
year, with eve/n a snail or -acre ago than last year' seeded hy the 'end of the 
OTjtim^Ji-n -ooriod in the southern and southeastern seccion of the Unioia* Of un- 
certain influence, also, is the reduced araount of seed per hcctoxe so\Tn in 
scveraJ. regions this yesr. It has heen the opinion of various Russian and 
other agriculturists •■ that the quantity of seed-hormally used per hectare in 
Russia is excessive - ' to' oroduco a given yield - hut it appears that ' the 
shortage of seed experienced this year in some sections of the Union necessi- 
tated considerahle stretching of supplies, and this mi:ght easily hat^e a 
dcterimcntal effect on yields, - ■ ■ 

ijeather conditions were exceptionally iHifavorahle in the su-amcr of ^ 
1931, hut relatively favorahle during nuch of the past two months. Exceptionr- 
ally favoraole weather, similar to tlaat experienced in 1930 could offset tne 
reduction in spring ?;heat acreage and prodvice a crop equal to or ahove tnat 
of last year, 

le_athe r and crop conditions ■ ■ 

Uo^r and early Juiie weather was generally favorahle to all crops, and 
winter crop conditions -were officially characterized as quite satisfactory as 
of June 10, Winter credos then were rc-oortcd above average in central and 
parts of northern' North Caucasus, parts of Lower Volga and most of the eastern 
■section of European Russia. Conditions varied- in Ukraine, hut V7ere. mostly 
satisfactory, particularly in the extreme south and southeast. Ahove average 
conditions are" also reported in eastern Crimea* Conditions elsewhere were 
average, with a few spots of helow average conditions more tlian offset hy 
above avera/^'e conditions elsewhere. No reports for the Union as a whole are 
available for "soring crops, but judging from M?y and early June weather the 
condition should be relatively satisfactory for grain not sown too late, 
■fairly frequent and well distributed rainfall prior to Juno 10 xn the chief 
producing rerlons was undoubtedly favorable for the development of tne crops. 
Later in •the^month, a number of hot, dry d.^s was experienced m the south- 
eastern and' eastern section of Soi^opcan Russia, with temperatures at times 
above 86 degrees Fahrenhait. Cooler weather, however, was again reported > 
around June 25 and, in view of the apparent adeqaacy of moisture supplies, 
it is possible th^at this spell did not da:nago the crops materially, though 
definite advice must be avoided. 

' : ■ ■ Hcrvodtlne h.d alre'aay started J'^ ^^^^^^^^^f fnl of?ho nonta 
axound the .r.idalo of J^e;. and is ejected to -^^^^""^ „f Ukraine 

t.o southern soction of tho ^^^iJ^TZ::^^^^^^^^- 
and Korth Caucasus, as well as soutnern soct^iou ux 



-18- 

Gcrraany: Stocks of .:?-ain and grain flour in^mills and 
■ffarchotiscs, s;occificd dates, 1.'32 

Unit 7ol3. 29 liar, 51 



A-ir. 30 


Hav 51. 


15,947 


14, 844 


1,409 


1,527 


14, 645 


13,545 


670 


630 


5,553 


4,478 


4,225 


5,215 



mioat 1,000 Wnels 19,878 18,665 

Vrneit flo^xc 1,000 iDarrcls 1,667 1,463 

Eye 1,000 bushels 14,094 14,684 

Eye flo-or 1,000 iDarrols 683 630 

Op.ts 1,000 -bushels 8,970 6,938 

Barley 1,000 ^oushcls 3,221 5,925 

Tlic decrease in wheat and v;heat flexor in second hand stocks c.urinc 
May was comparatively suall. In view of the low level oi consum'otion and tnc 
lade of incentive to refill su)plies, it now seeus unlnlcely that imports oi 
forei^ wheat and flour into Gomianj- during June will exceed 3,700,000 - 
7,3007000 oushels (includine chicken wheat), '.^hich will orin^- seasonal ii.r.orts 
1931-32 up to 18,400,000 -r 23,900,000 oushels. 

Recent discussions in the press o.hout the measures to be t.nlcen in 
the early 'osxt of the new season to -protect wheat faiTicrs nalcc it now very 
m-ely tl^at the uillin.- quota for domestic wheat will rcniain 97 per cent, tne 
hasic T)erccnta,"G in force throu,-hout the past season. After July 1 tne jann 
Board hard winter wheat still in transit storage will he :oen-aitted to enter 
at the reduced tariff of $1.17 per hushel uinus the $0.13 h^rd winter premun 
of the Deutsche Gctreidehandelsgesellschaf t. This quantity involved is osti- 
nated to be 845,000 oushels. Those aills usinr the hard winter wheat (ex jarn 
Board purchase) will also he pernittcd to i:,.port the sme quantity of 
foreign wheat for nixing -o^jrposes, hut only on payr.ient of the full tariff ol 
$1.62''-Der bushel with the -possibility tlia.t the D.&.H. nay £;rant a prenim of 
45 cents "ocr ton, which would reduce the tariff to a not rate of $1.17 
In ^rincinle, however, all wheat iv.TOorted after June 30 will pay tnc full duty 
of '$1.62,^and no prolongation of the $1.17 tariff beyond June 30 is intended. 

As a fiirther measure of su-rfiort for the grain market, the reintro- 
duction of the exchange export system of last fall is planned for wheat and 
rye. Exports in the fall would thereby be cnco^oraged by the provision tnat 
equal quantities of foreign wheat could be permitted entry duty-free, 
a much reduced tariff. German agricult-oral interests 'are advocating that the 
re-imoorting shall not be allowed before the second lialf of the season, a 
move which the trade opposes on :Toi:uids tliat it would-be impossible for the 
6x^30 rter-im^oorter to ass^ane the ris).:s' of such transactions. It is widely 
pointed out' that export sales possibilities for German soft wheat this year 
will doubtless bo more restricted than last year, because of the quota system 
in England, expansion of production in Holland, and favorable crop prospects 
in other deficit countries of Europe. 

In the case of an absolute surplus of wheat in Germany in 1932-33, 
other official plans contemplate disposal of the surplus by feeding, through 
liricing it up with a reduced tariff for feed grains as in the case of 
eosinized rye two years ago. 



WH-75 



-17- 



Flaiis for the 1932 fall sov dn^; campaifsn 

The Comi-nisscriat of Aericultiirc of RSISH has fixed the fall sov/inc 
plan for 1Q32 at 68,700,000 acres, which is an increase of 7 percent compared 
with a year a •o. The acreage of winter wheat is to increase materially in the 
central and northern section of RS?SR, l:ut the distrihution accordins to crops 
has not yet 'been announced. 

Market Section 



Q-ermany 

Early in June, Gcrma,n flour mill l:uyinfj of domestic new crop wheat was 
quite active, particul,arly in the C£ise of Rhine mills. This was due to the 
expectation that the new Government, which is known to have a strong protec- 
tionist leaning, would continue to support the grain farming interests m an 
effective vay. On the other hand, old crop was entirely neglected and new 
purchases of forei.-n wheat remained insignificant. Offers for old and new crop 
wore hoth small, so that prices were well sustained, toing the second naif oi 
Juno husinoss was rather quiet, with fair business reported on some days from 
the Rhine district. Domestic offers of old and new crop remained smrll d^mg 
this period. 

Prices of domestic wheat, hoth old and new crop, declined somewhat 
throughout the month, hut new crop less th-an old crop. 

Taole 11.- Germany: Price per hushel of domestic wheat and rye at 
specified markets, M.-^^ 11 - June 29, 1932 



Date 



May 11 
" 18 
" 25 
June 1 
8 
15 
22 
29 



Haiahurg [ 


Breslau a/ 


Berlin h/ 


Cents • 


Cents • 


Cents 


184 : 


182 : 


178 


183 : 


182 ! 


179 


181 ; 


170 


171 


177 


171 


I 173 


176 




I 168 


171 


: 160 


: 161 


165 


: 162 


: 163 


166 


: 162 


: 162 



■Rye 



Berlin cj 
Cents 

125 
124 
118 
118 
116 
112 
112 
115 



Price converted at c-arrent rates of exchange, 

a/ mieat of average quality of 57.9 pounds per Winchester bushel. 
W "Mr-rkischer" wheat 58.3 - 59.0 pounds per ■7inchcster tah-i. 
cJ "Markischer" rye of 55.9 - 56.7 pounds per Uinchcstor oucnol. 

Both farm and second hand stocks in Germany ,arc low, out consuaption h^s devel- 
oped so unfavorably that there is no inducement to keep supplies above a icvci 
absolutely necessary from a technical standpoint. Vi^cs on grain shocks m 
mills and warehouses in Gerraany representing about 95 per cent of the total 
second haiid stocks at the end of May were as follows: 



;k-75 



- 19 - 



Fr ance 

Slow inill buj'-ijig' of both i'oroi:,ii o;aC. demos tic v/Iieat, as c result of 
tjio expGctc.tion oi' c lirgo do/ao.itic crop, cJiy^racterised market dovelorrae'-^ts 
in ^"Ti^iice durii?;; t/ic eCM'ly o-^rrt of Juii9» D'jrinf; tlio second Iialf of tlis inontli, 
however, import uuyii?;;, \7a3 a/_,'ain fairj-y steJ-dy. .'Joi.iestic offers v;ore s.ni-ll 
in J-uiie, but the laoveinent of the ::orth-x^ric:Mi crop i.nd the approaching 
iiarvest in Southern .raajce brouf^ht about a sli>';yht decline i:i domestic prices. 

^.round the middle of tJie month the foreifJi: wheat 'p.ota was rediiced 
from 50 to 45 per cent, e;,id s^bseCiUently a further reduction to 40 per cait 
was decreed. 

1 egotiations betv/een Prarjse and Canada for prolong-ation of the coniTier- 
cial treaoy were recently suspended, witli the res-alt that Cariadian products 
will no\7 enter Prance under the rates of the "general" tariff, on tlae basis 
of which wheat will pay .,.1.70 duty por bushel, instead of 85 cents, as hitherto. 
'j?he difference - 00 frarcs - is equivalent to 05 cents per bushel, an amount 
sufficient to exclu.de ilanitobas. 

Italv 

Italian v/he^vt Lu-rlrets were moderately active during; the month of June, 
v/ith import purchases incluCin-j; ..ustralian and .arjcntine v;heat, as well as 
some ?jaber and Paissia-i duruiiu Domestic v/aeat prices tended dov/invard dtirinr; 
tiie first part of the mcoth, but later rose somewiiut. 

-'.round the tiic.dle of tlie fionth, tl^e nov/ cpaota for tlae 1932-33 year 
was an2~iOUiiced. ./itii t\/o e::ceptions only, lu:..3t year's domestic milling;' CiUOta 
of 95 per cent is to bo applied, namely, to Jicily and dardinia beginning 
with JuTie 27; to southern It^.ly and Latiixvi begiiming witii July 7; and to 
northern ^nd central Italy, except Lotium, begiinjin;_. with July 15. i'he ex- 
ceptions referred to aoove are th^-t, iv. ucrtliern Itu~ly, the i^uota for domestic 
h.ard wlieat, and in southern Italy tiie .^uota for domestic soft -/lieat will be 
only 70 per cent. 

Be_l Kium aiid Holland 

Relatively moderi-.te business in hard v/iiitcr, L.^-nitoba, and 2aliia Dlanca 
wheat v;as aone durin-r; June in the Belgian marhet; a fair volwae of business 
v/as carried on in holland, notably in h^jaiitobas and Plates. The decline in 
iiinerican markets attracted buyers to s orie evrtent. 

The Dutch milling >paoba for r-icw ci'op do.iestic "./heat is eicpected to be 
40 per cent for t'ae early g>j.rt of tiie season, as a result of tJie huge increase 
in the doi.-.estic whe^.t acreage and production, fhe Belgian Governneiit has 
recently submitted the po'.rliaiae'.At a bill to iiir^ose aii iLii^jOx-t tax of 7.6 to 11.3 
cents per busliel for wheat and 25 to 37 cents per barrel for flour, imported, 
the yield of which v/ill be distributed directly to p.rcin far..:ers as a siibsioy. 

GaechQslpvdkia 

hlieat markets in Czechoslovaid.a were rather cpaiot durii'g June ar.d domes- 
tic trading was small, though at times t'nere v/as a fair voluiTie of forei^'i wiieat 
bought, expecially lljnitobas. I'egotiatioiis in coiiiicctiou v/itii tiie forme 'cion of 



',7H-75 



-20- 



the agricultural iraport syndicate are nearly completed. The syndicate is 
to deal with grain, flour ajid livestock, but no livestock products. It v/ill 
include five groups: agricultural cooperatives , consumer cooperatives, flour 
mills, merchants, and the manufacturing industry. Upon request of the 
syndicate, Government decrees vn'. 11 stipulate the prices at which the im^ported 
goods must be sold. The difference between the price free frontier plus 
tariff, and the stipulated price, is called "syndicate margin" and constitutes 
more or less an indirect additional import duty. The "syndicate margin", 
at least in part, will be collected into a fund for the aisposal of the 
finance minister, possibly to be used for market supporting emotivities , 

Sweden 

The Swedish domestic wheat and rye milling quota for June, 1952, has 
been fixed at 50 per cent for wheat, and 30 per cent for rye. The quota 
system, instituted in 19,30, has specified the following percentages for 
domestic grain, according to Consul General Tredwell at Stockholm: 



Perio d Swedish whe-at Swedish rye 

1930 Per cent Per cent 

Sept. -Oct. 60 70 

Nov. -Dec. 75 85 

1931-3S ,,. ' . 

Jan. -Feb. 80 95 

Mar. -July ' 85 95 

Aug. -Sept. ... 80. . 95 

Oct. -Nov, - 70 60 

Dec. 1,1931 to May 31,1932 60 40 

June, 1932 50 30 



Latvia 

A Governiaent gr^^in monopoly for Latvia .?;:S estr>blishod on June 15, 
with the administration in the hands of a special division of the Ministry 
of Agriculture. The functions of this socalled "grain office" are descriijed 
as folloT/s: Purchasing and m'-..nuf acturing of all imported grain v/hen the 
domestic crop is short, V/heat cjid rye from domestic producers may be pur- 
chased by the monopoly. Farmers desiring to sell their grain through the 
monopoly have to report the intended quantity to the loc-il municipal 
authorities. The grain is paid for in cash or by an advance with final 
settlement three months after the delivery of the grain. At the beginning 
of each crop year the Ministry of Agriculture defines the st.-jidards for 
domestic v/heat and rye and fixes the prices for the various grains. 

The Danube Basin W h eat Situation 

Official crop estimates from Bulgaria, Iiung.-.ry and Rumania, together 
\,'ith private estimates from Yugoslavia indicate thu.t the total vvheat crop 
of these four countries of the Danube Basin is likely to be about 290 million 
bushels compared with the estimated production of 368 million bushels in 1931, 
The reduction in the 1932 crop is the result of smaller area for harvest and 
of yields in important producing districts. The 1932 crop S reported to be 
about three to four weeks late and is not expected to arrive on the markets 



WH-75 



-21- 



in voliame before the middle of August, 

The Danube B^sin office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics 
estimates the carry-over in that, region aS of July 1 to be approximately 
250 million bushels. Thus, the surplus available for export or Carry-over in 
the Danube Basin for the 1932-313 crop y^ar appears likely to bo considerably 
smaller than th.it of last yoar. Exports of wheat including flour from the 
Danube Basin for the crop year 1930-31 totaled about 81 million bushels. The 
large supply of cheap corn in 1931-32, together with Government wheat price 
supporting action, resulted in exports of wheat being materially higher than 
otherwise. This year's outlook for corn is at present unfavorable and it is 
also evident that Government relief action v/ill not play the important role 
that it did in 1931-32. 

The Danube Basin v/he ^t markets have continued to be relatively inactive. 
Stocks have been depleted and internal prices are reported to be too high to 
permit any significant amount of export business, 

Danube B^sin Markets and Prices 

Markets 

Danube Basin markets were relatively inactive during the month ending 
June 15, This was largely a result of uncertainty regarding both the 1932 
production, and the action that will be taken by Government Relief organizations 
for the coming season, Hungary is the only country in V7hich there vas active 
trading, and the Hungarian Government is the only Government that has definitely 
announced what its policy will be for 1932-33. 

In Bulgaria the Government Bureau is still the only agency th_.t can sell 
V7heat, but it is a general opinion that the Bureau will be discontinued before 
the 1932-33 marketing season begins. As a consequence, milJs refrained from 
buying important quantities, and as a whole, the m^orket w^.r inactive. 

In Hungary the grain ticket system was abolished on June 30, 1932, 
Consequently, farmers were anxious to market their surpluses before that date. 
The increased offers were met by a larger demand, ^s mills have delayed their 
spring purchases and important quantities were needed for fulfilling June 
contracts. Offers of new wheat in advance of harvust from farmers are rather 
small,, but merchants and mills have made important future transactions for 
delivery in October, 

In Rumania transactions '.vere snail, us a result of depleted stocks and 
high internal prices that make exports unprofitable. 



VvH-75 



Table 12.-V/]ieat: Registered cirrivals ut Br^ilu port ^nd sales to ex- 
porters semi-monthly, March to June, 1932 



Two weeks pe^riod 
ending 



Registered ^rrivals 



Registered s^les 



1932 



Mar. 15 

31 

Apr, 15 

30 

l^Y 15 . 
31 . 

June 15 



Bushels 

9,.e,'6o 

.20,200 
■21,700 
17,300 
40,400 
1,100 
0 



Bushels 

108,400 
8,800 
176,700 
186,300 
, 50,300 
26,800 
126,800 



Compiled as follows: ^irrivals from daily official bulletins of the 

Bruila Griiin Exchcinge, sales from "Danube Market and Shipping Report", 
daily issues in Galatz, _ 



In Yugoslavia the Privileged Export Company has not bought important 
quantities of \;heat for the last two months. Internal mills cover their needs 
exclusively with wheat from Voivodina (Crop Reporting District 4), as stocks 
in other sections are completely depleted. ■ ■ 

Prices ■ . . - 



The fluctuation of prices- on different Danube Basin markets during the 
past month followed different trends. The influence of world market prices 
v;as' largely outueighbd by local conditions, and the trend of prices shows 
little relation to the trend on world markets. 

In Bulgaria the Government Bureau continued to purchase wheat from 
farmers at 67 cents per bushel. Of this price, 7C per cent is paid in cash, 
and 30 per- cent in taxation bonds. The Government Bureau sells wheat to mills 
for home consumption under Monopoly control at 78 cents per bushel. Prices 
for wheat sold to exporters for immediate exports did not.vi:4ry materially, 
and on the \/holo they followed the trend of Liverpool prices. 

In Hungary prices increased continuously after May 15, but tended to 
decline after June 4, The increase was a result of active demands for wheat 
needed to cover June 1st futures. 

In Rumania prices did not change materially. Consuraption" was low, and 
offers wore small on account of depleted stocks, therefore, prices remain 
relatively stable. 

In Yugoslavia prices for v/he^t in the surplus producing district of 

Voivodina (Crop Reporting District 4) were stabilized at around 64 cents, 

y/hereas prices for inferior qualities in deficit districts were considerably 
higher. 



-23- 



Table 13. -Price per bushel for v/heat of comparable grades at Budapest 
and Novi-Sad, luonthly, January-May and weekly May 7- 

June 11, 1^32 



Period 


Budapest ,Hunifjary a/ 


Novi-bad, Yugoslavia 




Cents 


Cents 


1932 






J" an 0 .......*•. 


64 


; 84 


Feb . 0 0 


- 64 


: 84 


Mar ; 


67 


; 83 


Apr. 


65 


; ^ 64 


May 


61 


: ' 64 


Week ended 






May 7 o 


63 ; 


64 


14 


59 


; 65 


21 0 


59 


64 


28 • e c ..... . 


61 


; 64 


June 4 


62 


64 


11 ........ 


61 


: 64 



Description of grades is given in ''7h-74, page 30. 

a/ In addition to the narket price the purchaser has to pay 48 

cents per bushel, representing the value of the grain ticket. 



Table l4,-7v'heut, including flour: Exports fron principal exporting 
countries, April, May and June, 1931 and 1932 



Crop and country 



Apr, 



1931 



Exports 

Vflieat, incl. flour- 



1,000 
bushels 



1932 



1,000 
bushels 





7,106 


. 11,885 


10, 


114 


• 8,829 


12,007 


8,311 




6,148 


8,663 


31, 


687 


, 17,621 


22,990 


• 23,723 




17,609 


■ 22,056 


21, 


001 


11,767 


16,658 


. 11,784 




317 


'a/ 0 




302 


a/ 0 


771 


0 




20 , 234 


a/13,992 


• 16, 


028 


a/l8,760 


16,789 


: 12,612 




1,040 


376 


4, 


360 


0 


1,008 


0 


Danube and Bulg^^riai/ 


1,135 


1,104 




760 


. 1,312 


1,120 


984 




53,590 


: 58,076 


• 84, 


5 2 


58,289 


71,343 


57 ,414 



1931 



1,000 
bushels 



1932 



1,000 
bushels 



June 



1931 



1,000 
bushels 



1932 w 



r 



1,000 
bushels 



Conpiled fron official arA trade sources, a/ Prelinin-^ry< 



m-75 



Table 15,-Fn8at, including flour: . Movonent froid princip-.l exporting countries, 

specified periods, 1928-39 to 1931-32 



Country 



United States 
Canada • . . 
Argentina 
Austrian a 
Russia » . . 
Hungary , . 
Yugoslavia 
Rumania • . 
Bulgaria . 
British India (L&S) 

lo't/cil. ••••••••••• 



Jily.p or'ts_ a_s_£j^6rr_bv of f ic ial sources 



1928-29:1925-30 



1,000 : 1,000 
bushels : bushels 



242 



163, 687:153, 
422,732:184,213 
227,059:161,265 
61,892 
7,380 
31,415 



107 , 785 



23,658: 
7,919: 
1,653: 
760: 
5,716: 



23,593 
2,560 
96 
6,798 



1930-51 

1,0 o'd 
bushe Is 



131 , 536 
267,265 
120 , 510 
143 , 29.5 
110 , 90.9 

18,425 
4,930 

14 , 792 
5,041 

10,197 



1 to date shov/n: 

—- — - lJ*:Ze 



• rjQ^ 1930-31:1931-; 



1,000- : 1,000 



1,0.00 

bushels: bushels: bushels 



140,832 
162,534 
161,265 
45,766 

14,069 
20,691 
887 
72 
3,916 



: 119, 529: 
.: 244,375: 
: 120, 518: 
: 90,214: 
'^85,718: 
: 8,080: 
:' 5,174: 
: 11,880: 
2,117: 
8,807: 



127, '7l2: 
181,080: 
144;,9'00: 
114", 274: 
1/66,967: 
11 ,"214: 
12,894: 
34 ,'461: 
9,898: 
483: 



May 31 
May '31 
■June 3D 
Mai*; '3l' 
Dec. '31 
Mar. 31 
Mar. ,31 
"Feb. 29 
'Mar • 31 
liLv, 31 



960, 969 : 632 ,454 :'827., 000 : 550 , 0. 32 : 696 ,412 : 7C_5 _,_e83; 



Shipriients c>s given by current trad e sources 



North America c/ ... 
Canada, 4 markets d/ . 

United States 

Ar-gentina * 

Australia 

Russia e/ 

Danube and Bulgaria e^ 
British India 


Total : 


Week ended : 


July 1 to July 2 


1929-30:1930-31: 
(Rev.) :(Prel.): 


June : 
18 : 


June 

. . 25. . . 


J uly ; 

o 
w 


1930-31. 


1931-32 


1,000 : 1,000 : 
bushels: bushels ; 


1,000^ : 
bushels: 


1,000 
bushels 


1,000 : 
bushels . 


1,000 
bushels 


1,000 
bushels 


317,247:367, 768: 


7,760: 


■ 5,319' 


6,551 


' 364,008. 


335, 268- 


.193,300:270,168 
.149,758:132,276: 


5,494. 
1,527: 


. 5 , 599 

870 


■ 3,428 
2,160 


273,437. 
134, 700 


206,258 
156,029 


:164,984:118,712. 
: 64,37.6:144,512 
: .5,67;2: 92,520 
/ 18,384: 15,128 
:f/l,936: 5,80q 


2,072: 
2,408' 
. ■ . . 0 : 

104 
: ... . 0 


1,996. 
T,843 

' 320, 

' -0 


. 1,048 
'.2,133 
: . 0 
: .' 24C 

:'. 'O 


121,696: 
148,500: 
,92,784 
. .15,176 
; . 6,032 


144,564 
- 161,412 
'71,664 
35 '; 280 
, . " '616 


: 572, 600: 744, 448 


; 12,344 


, 9,478 


. . 9,972 


: 738,196 


: '?£S:0C4 


Tot^l European 

shipment s _c/ .... 
Total ex-European 


:476,096:614,488 
: 130, 688:172, 600 


: 10,600 
: 2,352 






• 604,744 
: 167,952 


: 562,192 
: 189,495 


•a/ Flour not included for Nov. and Dec, figures not available. D/ bea iraae 



only, c/ Broonhall's Corn' Tr.^de News, d/ T'ort' 'miiam, ' Port Arthur , Van-^ 
couver and Prince Rupert, e/ Black Sea shipme'-rlts only, f/ Nt.t imports ^1929- 
30 were 1,847,893 bushels; for 1930-31 v/ere 420,099 bushels. £/ Total of 
trade figures includes North imerica as reported by Broomhall's. 



Mi- 7 5 



-25- 



'cible l6.-\Vheat, including flour: Net imports into European countries, years 

1929-30, 1930-31 and July to latest date 1931-32 



Country 


: 1929-30 


:1930 


-31 


: Prelim. 

: estimate 


Net imports repor 


ted 










: 1931-32 


:July 1 to 


: 1930-31 


: 1931- 32 




; Mi Hi on 


: Mi 11 ion 


: Mi 11 ion 




: Mi 11 ion 


: Million 




: bushels 


: bushels 


: bushels 




; bushels 


: bushels 


United Kingdom . . 


• 




221 


: 220-230 


: Apr. 30 


: 188 




209 








84 


: 29-37 


: May 31 


: 72 




26 








45 


. 42-46 


, Apr. 30 


37 




38 








45 


: 73-77 


Apr. 30 


32 




61 








35 


29-33 


. May 31 


: . 32 




28 








30 


18-24 


May 31 


26 




15 








24 


23-26 


Mar. 51 


: 17 . 




18 


Irish Free State 


. . . : 18 




19 


— 


Apr. 30 


16 




17 








18 


20-22 : 


May 31 


17 




20 








15 : 


15-17 : 


Apr, 30 : 


• 12 : 




13 


Czechoslovakia 






15 : 


22-24 . 


Apr. 30 , 


11 




17 








11 : 


17-18 ; 


May 31 : 


10 : 




16 








8 : 


8-9 : 


May 31 


7 : 




8 








5 ; 


4-5 : 


May 31 : 


5 : 




4 








5 : 


6-7 ! 


May 31 


5 




6 




...:a/b/ : 


V - 


4 : 
3 : 


2- 3 : 

3- 5 : 


May 31 : 
Apr. 30 ; 


b/ - 4 : 
2 ; 




- 3 

2 








2 : 


1-1 : 


Mar. 31 : 


2 : 




1 








1 : 


1-1 : 


Mar. 31 : 












u/b/ 




4-7 : 


Mar. 31 ; 


a/b/ : 








582 : 






488 : 


496 



Compiled from offici.al sources. ^7 Loss th^-^n 500,000 bushels, b/' Not export. 



Table 17. -United States: Imports ^.nd exports of v/he^t including 

flour, 1930-31 und 1931-32 



Item 




July 1, 1930 to 


: July 1, 1931 to 




June 30, 1931 


: June 30, 1932 






1,000 bushels 


. 1,000 bushels 


Exports : 


• 










60, 087 


: 97,499 


Flour in terms of 


whexit: 


54 , 614 


38,524 






134,701 


: 135,023 


Imports: (July-Muy) 












17,707 


12,009 


Flour in terms of 


wheat: 


5 


: 1 ■ ' 






17,712 


12,010 


Net exports: 












62,380 


85,490 


Flour in terms of 


wheat: 


54 , 609 


38 ,523 






116,989 


124,013 



Compiled from official sources. 



\VII-75 



-26- 



:.S^Un-j.te'-l. 



Exports 0.1 wheat and wheat includin'^, flour, Id 2," weeks, 
1930-31 and 19 31-32 



\/heat~ 



V.Tieat flour 



Date : 


1930-31: 


1931-32 


• 


IS 50-31: 


1951^32: 


1930-31: 


1931-32 




1,-000 "s 


" 1,000"" 


« 


1,000' : 


f,~C"0 ~: 


1 , 000 ~ : 


1, 000 




"bushels ; 


"bushel s 


:"boxrels : 


"barrels : 


"bushels : 


"bushels 


Ju-ly 4-Jan. 2 • 


49,720 : 


_ — — — — 

55,764 


• 
• 

• 


- 5,576 : 


3,659 : 


77,028 : 


72,963 


Fet. 6 -Feb, 2 7 : 


87,-: 


4,392 


• 
• 


.507 : 


629 : 


2,469 : 


7,396 


Mar. 5 -Apr. 2 : 


914 . 


5,561 . 




■470 : 


496 


; 3,123 : 




Apr. 9 -Apr, 30 ; 


, 3,703: 


8,.853 


• 

• ■ 


629 : 


454 


: 6,659': 


■ 10,987 • 


Week ended 














' ■ ■ 1,876 




' 1,189 


1,730' 




106 : 


31 


. 1,637 




1,202 ' 


. 1,797 


• 


95 • 


52 


. 1,648 


, ' " 2,041 




482 


; 2,478 


• 
• 


," 229 


59 


: 1,000 


; <i , ' 00 




599 


: 1,142 




81 


: 52 


: 980 


: 1,386 


June 4 0 . 


: 4,038 


: 1,059 




. 239 


; 68 


: 5,161 


; 1,379 




• ; 2,055. 


: 2,248 




44 


: 27 


: 2,262' ' 


: 2,575 




' 2,028 


; 1,358 




, 124 


: . 36 


: 2,611 


: 1,527 




: • 1,739 


• • 583 


• 


. 207 


: 61 


: 2,712 


: ■ 870 




° 1,998 


: 1,817 




72 


: 73 


: 2,336 


: 2,160 



V/neat including flour 



Compiled froin v;eekly report of Department of Commerce. 



Taole 19 - Wheat- inclu^dinr; flour: Shipments from principal exporting 
regions, specified dates, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



Date 



July 4- 
Feh. 6- 
ITar . 5- 
Apr. 9- 
\7eek 
May 7, 

14. 

21. 

28, 

June 4. 
11, 
13. 
25. 

July .2. 



-Jan. 2 
-Fe"b.27 
-Apr, 2 
-Apr. 30 

ended 



Ar.;-entTira 



"istrali a 



1930-31 

-T,"CraU" 
bushels 



24,376 
15,524 
17,720 
16,112 

3,740 
3,800 
5,364 
3,980 

4,512 
4,668 
5, 500 
3,132 
2.984 



1 9 31-3Trr950-51 ; 1951-52 
~T,'UUiy~: 1,000 : 1,000 
hushels :hushels:"buGhels 



40,550 :38,864 :53,192 
17,512 :17,912 :19,804 
29,056 : 23, 684 : 21, 280 
19,408 : 16,984 : 13, 992 



,4,452 
.-3,836 
•3,544 
•2,040 

3,020 
3,644 
2,071 
1,996 
1,048 



4,224 
5,288 
*^ y 7 3 2 
2,812 

5,872 
5,116 
3,512 
3,792 
3.988 



5,472 
4, 340 
4,744 
4,204 

3,016 
3,224 
2,395 
1,843 
2,133 



Danuhe' 



1950-51 



1,000 

hushels 

10,720 
384 
904 
1,136 

215 
128 
176 

240 

335 
288 
"150 

268 
48 



1931-32 



1,000 

hushels 



31,960 
654 
1,120 
1,104 

592 
312 
168 

240 

80 
240 
104, 
320 

2'VO 



Ko'rth America 
T9T0~3lTr951-32 



1,000 

htisiiels 



:11,955 
20,, 760 
22,992: 
20,848 

10,624 
8,728 

10,208 
6,880 

9,728 
5,660 
7,536 
6,560 
6,240 



■1,.000 
hushels 



173,288 
21,095 
24,928 
27,350 

8,856 
9,720 
5,384 
5,560 

8,352 
-7,334 
7,984 
5,319 
5,551 



Compiled from official and trade . sources , 



0 



WH-75 



PAGE 



1 - SuiB-nary * 1 - 3 

2 - Crop prospects 3 - 6 

3 - Prices ^ - ^ 

4 - Protein Premi-aia 10 

5 - Movement and Storage of the Hard li'ilintcr vVheat Crop 10 - 11 

5 - Tae Continental European Wh/i-'t Market Situation During June . . 11 - 17 

7 - Market Section 1? - 20 

8 - The Drnul)e Basin Wheat Situation 20-21 

9 - Danube Basin Markets and Prices 21 - 26 

TABLES 

1 - '^/laeat: Production in specified co-ontries, 1928-29 to 1932-33 . 6 

2 - Wheat: Vifei:2;hted avcvfiQe cahs prices at stated markets 5 

3 Wheat: Closing prices of July futiires 8 

4 — Wheat: Average price per bushel of parcvols of specified 

description, c.i.f. at Liverpool, specified periods 9 

5 - Wheat: Price per bushel at specified markets 9 

6 - Stacks of all grain, unfilled storage space and percentage of 

total space filled in }xiblic elevators at 14 principal markets 11 

7 - Price per bushel of domestic wheat at specified markets .... 13 

8 - Continental Europecai stocks of wheat, the middle of Mry and the 

middle of J\inv^, 1931 rnd 1932 • • 1-^ 

9 - Wheat o,nd wheat flour shipments to the Continent, stated periods, 

1928-29 to 1931-32 I'i 

10 - Yfineat end wheat flour shipments to Europe, stated periods ... 14 

11 - Germany: Price per bushel ox domestic wheat and rye at specified 

markets, May 11 - June 29, 1932 1"^ 

12 - Wheat: Registered arrivals at Braila port raid sales to exporters 

semi-monthly, March to J"urie, 1932 22, 

13 - Price per bushel for wheat of comoarable g^-ades at Budapest 

and llovi-Sad, monthly, Jcanuary-I'Iny and weekly M^y 7 - Jmie 

11, 1932 23 

14 - Wheat, including flour: Exports from principal exporting 

countries, April, May and June, 1931 and 1932 2o 

15 - "i'iheat, including flour: Movement froui principal exporting 

countries, specified periods, 1928-29 to 1931-32 

16 - Wxioat, including flour: ilct imports into Europecn countries, 

years 1929-30, 1930-31 rnd July to latest date 1931-32. ... 25 

17 - United States: Imports end exports of wheat incliding flo'o.r, 

1950-31 rnd 1931-32 ; • 25 

18 - United States: Exports of v/heat aud wheat including flour, by 

weeks, 1930-31 .and 1931-32 • • • 

19 - Wheat including flour: Shipments from principal exporting 

regions, specified dr.tes, 1930-31 and 1951-32 26 



24 



26 



UUITED STATES DEBiiTi :iij"T Of AGkIOJLTUEE 
, CT Bureau of Agricultural Economics 

5 2>r 



ra-?6 Au^st 18, 



Washington ■ - 

B K /A R Y 

R E C E ! V' K D 

WOELD 'a'HEAT PROSPECTS AUU 2 i 1332 

U. S. 1 ^j^'MhiU'oxu of Agriculture 



Su irmary 

Crop conditions in the wheat producing countries of the » $ 3 '- e H j fa-y » teg 8 fi" ■ ■ . 
Hemisphere indicate that the 1932 crop may be ahout the same as the 1931 
crop. Stocks of old v/heat in the principal exporting countries on July 1, 
togetiier with certain stocks in importing countries, indicate that the 
world carry-over of wheat (excluding Russia and China) into the 1932-33 
season will he slightly larger than the record carry-over of last year. 
Thus, it appears that the total of those parts of the world supplies 
already- accounted for in 1932-33 is about the sajne as those of last year. 
.<neat acreage m the Southern Hemisphere may be larger than last year, 
out owing to the absence of information at this time on the condition of 
the crop, no statem.ent can be inade regarding the size of the 1932 wheat 
crop in the Southern Hemisphere. 

The position of the supplies already accounted for is of som.e 
sig-nificoaice. Tlie exportable surpluses in the United States and Caaiada 
promise to be large, but in the Danube Basin co-ontries the crop may be very 
little above domestic requirements and is reported to be poor in quality. 
Preliminary reports indicate that Russiaai exports may not be so large as last 
year. Stocks of old wheat in Australia and Argentina available for export on 
July 1 were about 33,000^000 bushels mider those of a year earlier. The 
principal importing countries of continental E-arope reported very sm.all stocks 
of old Wheat as of July 1, but the new crop in those countries promises to 
De xarger than that of last year and restrictions on im.ports have been tigiiten 
ed. The new crop of wheat in Germany promises to be large enough to satisfy 
domestic requirements and the rye crop is also large. 



The crop of all v;hecit in the United States, based on conditions of 
August 1, Was forecast to "be 722,687,000 bushels, of which 441,783,000 bushels 
is winter wheat and 280 , 899 , 000 bushel s spring wheat. The carry-over of old 
wheat into the 1932-33 season was reported to be about 363,000,000 bushels, 
a large percentage of which was winter wheat. Thus, the proportions of spring 
aiid winter wheats in total supplies for milling during 1932-33 will be more 
nearly normal than is indicated by the relative sizes of the new crops of 
spring and winter wheats. There will, however, be a much larger percentage 
of durjjTi wheat in the supplies for the current season than was the case last 
year. Total supplies of v;heat for the 1932-33 season may be about 125,000,000 
bushels less than the total supply for 1931-32. The disappearance of wheat 
during 1931-32 was about the same as the disappearance in 1930-31. The level 
of prices during 1931-32, however, was considerably under that of 1930-31. 
All classes and grades at 6 marhets averaged 55.1 cents per bushel for 1531-32 
.and 77.1 cents for the previous year. Exports during 1931-32 were about 
5,000,000 bushels larger than for the previous year. There was also about 
25,000,000 bushels more v/heat fed to livestock than in 1930-31, but total 
millings and whea,t used for seed were both under 1930-31. 

Tiie condition of spring wheat in Canada as of July 31 is officially 
reported to be 88 per cent of a long-time average. This compares with 99 per 
cent condition reported as of June 30. The official reported acreage of all 
wheat in Canada was 27,099,000 acres. Tiie reported condition of the crop, 
together with rainfall and temperature, to date indicates that the total 
wheat crop of Canada may be between 450,000,000 .a:id 475,000,000 bushels. 

Crop Prospects 

Estimates and forecasts of the 1932 wheat production in 34 co^ojitrics 
which last year produced about 94 per cent of the northern Hemisphere wneat 



crop outside of -Russia c:id China totaled 3,100,000,000 bushels as co.nparcd v/ith 
3,109,000,000 bushels a year ago. 

The 1932 crop in the United States is estimated at 722,667,000 bushels 
on the basis of conditions on ..ugust 1 compared with 894,204,000 bushels in 1931. 
The estimate of the 1932 v/inter crop has been increased about 10,000,000 bushels 
over the July forecast but the estimate of the spring crop has been reduced about 
24,000,000 bushels. The weather was favorable for harvest over most of the vanter 
V.lieat Belt, v/hereas,the hot, dry weather in the Northern Great Plains caused 
premature ripening oi the late sown spring wheat. 

^ot, dry weather has lowered the prospects for the wheat crop in Canada, 
according to the official report issued -.ugust 10. V.'ith minor exceptions in 
each province, practically- the entire wheat area declined in condition during 
July, with the most marked depreciation in the southern districts where wheat 
production is concentrated. The first official osti:iate of the area is 27,099,000 
acres compared with the preliminary report of farmer's intentions to plant ivhich 
had indicated an area of 25,168,000 acres, and the final estimate of 26,115,000 
acres last year. This Bureau has not revised its estimate of production which 
was published in ;.'orld 'wheat Prospects , July 19, and which indicated a crop 
roughly about 475,000,000 bushels. July \/eather appears to have harmed the crop, 
but on the other hand the official report of acreage is higher than intentions 
reports indicated, consec_P-Ont ly no material change in production seems probable. 

Hstim.ates and forecasts of production in 25 European countries total 
1,446,000,000 bushels as compared with 1,439,000,000 bushels harvested in the 
same countries last yee.r. Important increases are reported in the crops of 
France, Spain and Germany and m.inor increases in nearly all of the importing 
countries. The production in the 4 surplus producing countries oi the Danube, 



-4- 



however, is the lowest in' years.' fl\e present forecast 'is for a total produc- 
tion in the Danube of 248,000,000 bushels compared with 368,000,000 bushels 
harvested in 1931. A large part of the Danubian crop is said to be of -un- 
usually low quality.. The weather during July was hot and sultry and stei:i-ru,st 
spread rapidly. The production in Germany is forecast at 188, 677 ,000 bushels, 
an increase of 33,000,000 bushels over the 1931 harvest and the largest crop 
on^ record. ^ A part of 'this increase is due to the increase in acreage aiid a 
still^ further expansion is expected next season. A survey by the Agricultural 
Council indicates that farmers in several important States are intending to 
increase the winter wheat acreag-e from 6 to 10 per cent. Harvesting is 
progressing rapidly in France under favorable weather conditions and the yields 
and^ quality are reported satisfactory except in the South. Unofficial 
estimates indicate a crop of over 300,000, OuO bjshels compared with 27O,O0C,0uO 
bushels harvested last year. The Italian crop is officially estimated at 
253,000,000 bushels compared with 248,000,000 bushels last year. Unofficial 
reports, however, continue to accentuate the weather dajnage, especially in 
the northern provinces. Rust damage is reported in southern Poland where a 
smaller harvest is expected. 

Tlie total wheat acreage in Russia is reported at 88,700,000 acres com- 
pared with 91,900^000 acres last year. Harvesting began at the end of J^one in 
the sou-thern sections of the Union. Reports indicate that the average yield 
of wheat for the Union as a whole will probably be below average although good ■ 
yields in Siberia may increase the total. '.Winter wheat prospects were serious- 
ly reduced by excessive heat in llorth Caucasus and parts of Ukraine in J^jne 
and the development of extensive, rust damage in western Ukraine daring July. 
Tlie spring vmeat area was reduced about 15 per cent compared with last year 
and the condition was generally affected by late planting. The outlook appears 
poorest in the Volga Region. Grain procurements during July amo^anted to only 
45 per cent of the plan. 

ITo sigiaificant changes have been reported in the Horth African crop 
during the past month. 

Tlie estimate of the Indian crop has been reduced to 336,971,000 bushels 
coi^ipared with 347,387,000 bushels in 1931. Agricultural Commissioner Dawson 
at Shanghai reported that the Manchurian spring wheat crop is indicated to 
be considerably below last year due to the reduction of 20 to 30 per cent in 
acreage and, the excessive rainfall during July. Reports of rather indefinite 
nature placed the reductions of all crops at 40 to 50 per cent compared with 
last year. 

Rainfall in the Australian v/heat zones has been about avcra^ge so far 
this season, and fairly well distributed through the season. Victoria has had 
a little more than average rainfall and south Australia moderately neavy 
rainfall while New South '-Vales and western Australia ha.ve had less than average, i 
In .^encral the greater the rainfall in Australian wheat zones from April through 
November the i^.reater the yield has tended to be in the past twenty-one years, 
but in New South Vifales and Victoria the highest yields have been in years hs.ving 
somewhat less than maximum rainfall. 



v7H-76 



-5- 



Agri cultural Commissioner Ray at Buenos Aires reports that conditions 
point to cixi increase of 10 to 12 per cent in the wheat cicrfeage of Argentina, 
compared v/ith the area sown last year. The important wheat provinces of 
Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe will -all show appreciably Icjrger r,reas 
of -.vheat than last year, but the territory of La Painpa will doubtless show 
a decrease. Wheat seeding was pr?.ctically completed by the end of July end, 
'.vhere the seed had germinated ojid the plants were above ground, conditions 
on the ■..'hole v/ere said to be very good. Germination has been quite even cjid 
plants present a uniform appearance. Temperrtures during most of J-une exid 
July were well above normal. Moisture conditions for the most part heave been 
extremely good' and there is some fear that, if these relatively high tempera- 
tures continue, wheat will malce too rank a growth for this season of the year. 
Locusts nave already appe^-^.red in large numbers in the extreme northern portion 
of the cereal zone. '.Vhile but little damage has occurred up to the present 
time, serious losses may occur if their movement southward' is not checked 
by cooler weather and' by concerted action for their destiniction. 



Vrxl-75 

Table 1:- 



-6- 

Vilieat: Production in specified countries, 192&-29 to 1952-33 



Country 



1928-29 



United States 

Canada 

Mexico 



1,000 

"bushels • 
926,130 



Total (3) , 

EUROPE 
England and V/ales 

Norway 

Sweden 

Denmark 

Netherlands 

Belgium 

Erance 

Spain 

Po r tugal , 

I taly . , 

Swi tzerland 

Germany 

Austria 

Czechoslovaliia ... 

Hungary 

Yugoslavia 

Greece , 

Malta 

Bulgs,ria 

Rumania , 

Poland 

Lithuajnia , 

Latvia , 

Estonia , 

Einland , 



5G5 
11 



1,503 



47 

18 
12 
7 
17 
281 
122 
7 

228 
4 

141 
12 
52 
99 

103 
13 

49 
115 
59 
6 
2 
1 



726 
031 



887 



254 
798 
331 
214 
336 
215 
285 
540 
546 
598 
474 
593 
917 
861 
211 
294 
085 
289 
153 
544 
219 
327 
499 
037 



1929-30 



1,000 
"bushels 



812 
304 
11 



1,128 



47 

19 
11 
5 
13 

337 

154 
10 

260 
4 

123 
11 
52 
74 
94 
11 

33 
99 

65 
9 
2 
1 



573 
-520 
333 



426 



451 
750 
Oil 
772 
467 
225 
252 
245 
635 
125 
372 
052 
559 
902 
985 
999 
434 
293 
195 
753 
852 
329 
335 
260 
764 





1,446,039 


: 1,358,450 


1,436,995 


1,445,295 


NORTH AERICA : 


31,764 
33,307 
12,309 


21 , 302 
32,44-2 
10,398 


29,534 
25,539 
13,963 


21,973 
: 29,982 
:4/ (17,2691 




77,380 


64,142 : 


59,136 


69,224 


ASIA : 


320,731 
30,495 
8,320 : 


390,843 . 
29,537 : 
8,985 ; 


347,387 
30,892 
8,341 


336,971 
52,518 
8,504_ 




359,547 


429,365 : 


386,620 


377, 7 93 J 


Total 34 countries: 3,308,679 : 


3,011,392 : 


3,142,255 . 


3,109,375 


3,100.063 


Est. IT. Hemisphere : : 
excl.Russia&China : 3,431,000 . 


3,194,000 : 


3,311,000 : 


3.298,000 





1930-31 



1,000 
bus'nels 



858 
420 
11 



1,290 



39 

20 
10 
6 
15 

228 
146 
13 
210 
3 

139 
12 
50 
84 
80 
9 

57 
130 
82 
11 
4 
1 
1 



160 
672 
446 



278 



960 
720 
819 
216 
055 
236 
105 
700 
816 
071 
601 
217 
008 
606 
339 
326 
709 
303 
317 
771 
321 
327 
062 
635 
210 



1931-32 



1,000 
bus"hels 
894,204 



304 
16 



1,214 



35 

18 
10 
o 
13 
269 
. 134 
12 
248 
4 

155 
9 
41 
72 
98 
12 

61 
135 

83 
8 
3 
1 
1 



144 
225 



574 



887 
592 
047 
053 
751 
817 
632 
427 
999 
101 
361 
546 
384 
232 
550 
789 
205 
277 
195 
295 
220 
340 
388 
736 
161 



1932-33 
prelir.unary 



1,000 
bu s"iiels 
722,687 
l/'( 475,000) 
9,064 



1,206,751 



2/ 
2/ 



41,440 
(800) 
(20,900) 
(10,8.0) 
13,750 
13,937 
(305,500) 



2/ 
2/ 

3/ 



2/ 
2/ 
2/ 
2/ 



161 
18 
252 
4 
188 

(11 
(47 

58 
(62 

18 

53 
73 
(72 
( 8 
( 3 
( 1 
1 



449 

372 

978 

189 

677 

600) 

800) 

201 

500) 

372 

301 

891 

437 

000) 

700) 

700) 

800) 

141 



Compiled from official sources except as otherwise noted, 
l/ Estimated in the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 2 1 Estimated 
office of fne Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 3/ Estimated in the 
of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. 4/ Estimated in the Marsei 
of the Bureo,u of Agricultural Economics. 



in the Berlin 
Belgrade offic- 
lie office 



WH-76 



-7- 



'■Theat Pr ices 

Both cash and futures prices at the principal world markets declined 
during the first half of July. During the remainder of the month, however, 
an advance carried prices to a level somewhat higher than that of the first 
of July. The decline during the first part of July v'as associated with new 
wheat moving to market in relatively large volume from the winter wheat 
sections of the United States. It is interesting to note, however, that 
both hard winter wheat and red winter wheat showed more strength in prices 
during- this period then did the other classes of wheat in the United States 
and Canada. This probably csn be acco-unted for by a short winter wheat crop 
m tae. United States. The advance in wheat prices which began about the 
middle of July was ■ accompanied by considerable activity in both cormnodity 
ana^ stock markets. Demand from imoorting countries of Europe continued re- 
latively wealc during this period. 

September futures at Chicago on July 1 were q-oted at 50-1/4-3/8 cents 
a busliel. A general decline during the first two weeks brought September 
futures to 45-7/8 - 47, July futures to 44-3/8-1/2 on the 16th and 18th. 
These were tne lowest futures prices at Chicago on record. A gradual advance 
during the third week of July and a more rapid advance during the last week 
of July ^rnd the first week of August resulted in September futures being 
quoted at 55-7/8 - 56 on August 8, an advance of 9 cents per bushel within 
tnree weeks. At Kansas City aiid i.Iinneapolis , September futures followed a 
similar course, v/innipeg and Liverpool futures followed United States prices 
but tne^ advcjices were somewho.t smaller.. On Aug-^ast 8 Liverpool was about l-l/2 
cents above Chicago, whereas a week before Liverpool was 5-3/4 cents above 
Chicago. Gash prices at United States markets improved along with futures 
but to a much smaller extent. L'o. 3 lionitoba Northern at ■-iinnipeg advcnced 
very rapidly during the last week of July, but declined some during the. first 
week of August. Buenos Aires near futures advanced steadily af t^r tne first 
vveek of^uly. Prices of domestic wheat in European markets declined rapidly 
during July aaid the first week of Aog^ast. At Berlin the decline was from 
$1.52 a bushel for the week ended July 1 to 31.43 for the week ended August 5. 
Tnis decline is accounted for by favorable development of a domes.tic crop 
whicn promises to be sufficient for domestic requirements. Prices of 
domestic wheat at Paris averaged $1.79 for the week ended July 1. During 
July prices remained fairly steady because of ver^^ low stocks of old whea.t 
and inactive mill bna;,'ing. As soon as the new crop began moving to market, 
however, prices dropped rapidly, averaging $1.52 for the week ended August 5, 
compared with ipl.77 for the previous v/eek. Prices of dom.estic wheat at i'ilan 
dropped rapidly during the second week of July, aaid have continued relatively 
low because of the movement of the new crop to market. 



WH-76 



-8- 



Table 2.- i'/heat: Weighted average cash lorices at stated loarkets 



We el- 


:A11 classes 


No. 2 


No 


. 1 


Ho. 2 : 


No 


. 2 


V/e stern 


ended 


. sjid grades 


Hard Winter 


Dk.N. Spring 


'Amher 


Durum: 


Red Winter 


white 




:six raarkets 


Kansas City 


Minneapolis; 


Minnearolis 


St. Louis 


: Seattle l/ 




:1931 




• isol 


1 932 


1931 


1932 


1931 


1932 


1931 . 


1932 : 


1931 


: 1932 




: Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


• Cents 


•Cents 


: Cents 


:Cent3 


: Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


C en t s 


May 13)- , 76 


: 64 : 


74 


57 


84 


74 


: 77 


• 69 


82 


58 


70 


. 66 


July 8)-' 48 


49 • 


46 


• 43 


69 


: 61 


: 62 


54 


50 


47 


56 


52 


July 15 


45 


47 : 


43 


45 


69 


62 


: 63 


52 • 


48 


47 


57 


: 51 


22 


47 


47 


45 


44 


. 68 


57 


61 


: 53 


49 < 


47 


56 


: 50 


29 


46 : 


49 


43 : 


46 


: 62 


58 


58 


55 


47 . 


49 


: 52 


• 51 


Aug. 5 


45 


51 


42 . 


46 


62 


58 


59 , 


56 : 


46 


51 : 


50 





l/ Weekly average of daily cash quotations basis No. 1 sacked 30 days deliver^/. 
2/ High and low for period. (May 13-July 6) 1932. (May 15-July 10) 1931. 



Table 3.- 'Wheat: Closing price of September futures l/ 



Date 


Chicago 


'Kansas City 


L'dnneapolis 


Winnipeg 2/ 


Liverpool 2/ 


Buenos 
Aires 3/ 


1931 


: 1932 


1931 


1932 


1931 


:1932 


•1931 


1932 


:1931 


:1932 


1931 


:1932 




Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


. C en t s 


Cents 


: Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


May 16) / 
Juiyl5)-/ 


: 61 

52 


: 63 
: 58 


54 
44 


: 58 
42 


: 54 

■ 53 


64 
47 


65 
58 


59 
48 


: 68 • 

50 


63 
50 


:5/50 
'5/44 


:5/51 
5/4-i 


July 16 


54 


: 47 


46 


41 


54 


46 


60 


: 48 


. 61 : 


52 . 


46 


45 


23 


52 


48 : 


4^1 ; 


43 


53 


49 


55 


51 


60 


53 . 


43 


46 


30 


51 . 


51 . 


'13 


45 ; 


5-4 


52 


55 


> 52 " 


58 


56 : 


42 


: 48 


Aug, 6 . 


49 . 


54 


41 


48 


56 • 


56 : 


54 


53 


57 : 


56 


39 , 


43 



1/ October futures for V/innipeg and Liverpool. 
2/ Conversions in 1932 at noon b-jying rate of exchange; 1931 a.t par. 
3/ Prices are of day previous to other prices. 

4/ High oiid low for period (I'lay 15-July I5]^9icy 18-July 17, 1931). 
5/ August futures. 



■./H-76 „9_ 

Table 4.- Wheat: Average price per bushel of parcels of specified 
description, c.i.f. at Liverpool, spocified periods 1931-1932 



Period 


= No. 3 Manitoba : 


Rosafe 




'- Wnrthern : 






_ 


: 1931 


1932 


l^ol : 






Cents 


: Cents : 


Li en t s 


O 6 11 1'^ 


J an 


71 : 


62 : 


61 : 


52 


Peb 


: 72 


64 


DO : 


OO . 


ivIo.r 


71 


: 66 : 


61 


57 


Apr 


72 • 


55 


Ci 


; Of 


May 


6S . 


62 


I DD 


oy 


June 


67 : 


55 


Ol 


OO 


July 


53 




O ( 




tfeek ended 










May 6 : 


70 1 


61 


OO , 


OO 


15 


70 


: 52 


> DO 


. O 3 


20 • 


71 


52 


! OD 


: ou 


27 : 


55 


! 62 ; 


OO 


fin 


June 3 


55 


: 61 


bi 




10 


67 


55 




: OO 


17 : 


55 


: 53 


; bl 


OO 


24 ; 


58 


53 


: D<d 




July 1 


57 


53 


DU 


. Ot: 


8 


55 


53 


58 


53 


15 : 


53 


52 


: 56 


: 53 


22 : 


54 




57 




29 ' 


60 




: 57 




Aug. 5 : 


58 




54 





Compiled from Eroomhall's Corn Trade News. 



Table 5.- Wheat: Price per bushel at specified markets, J^ane 3, 1932 - 

Aug^ist 5, 1932 



v/eeic 


. Aansas 


Minne- 


'Jinni-. 


Bueno s 


• Liver- 


; Great 








ended 


City 
1/ 


: apolis 


• peg 

3/ 


Aires 
4/ . 


pool 
5/ 


Britain 
6/ 


: Berlin 
: 7/ 


Pari s 
: 7/ 


: Milan 
7/ 




Cents 


: Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


June 3 


53,1 


69.0 


. 48.8 


. 50.4 • 


50.9 


" 61.8 


173 , 


187 


: 164 


10 


. 47.5 . 


64.8 


43.0 


48.1 ; 


54.6 


63.2 


168 


184 ; 


161 


17 


: 45.9 


. 63.4 


42.4- 


'r5. 5 


55.1 


: 52.7 


151 


: 179 


. 160 


24 


42.5 


61.1 : 


41.5 


' 46.2 


54.4 


62.1 


163 


177 


: 162 


J ny 1 . 


42.8 


61.9 


41.5 : 


4C.4 


53.1 


51.8 


162 


179 




8 


: 'x4. 9 


: 55.2 : 


42.4 


: 45.3 


52 .3 


62.1 . 


152 : 


Vol : 


147 


15 


44, 9 


61.5 


41.8 


45.1 


52 . 3 ; 


61.0 


152 


180 • 


135 


22 


: 44.3 


57.0 


42.5 


: 45.2 




61.9 


156 : 


17^ 


136 


29 


: 46.4 


58,3 


46.0 


• 47.2 








177 : 


139 


Aug. 5 


. 45.4 


: 58.2 


• 45.5 


47.9 






143 


152 . 


135 



Prices are averages of daily prices for weeks ending Friday except as follows: 
G-reat Britain prices of home grov/n wheat are averages for the week ending Saturday 
Berlin, Paris, end Milan prices are Wednesday quotations. Prices at Winnipeg, 
Buenos Aires, Liverpool, Berlin, Paris and Milan are converted to United States 
money at the current rates of exchange, l/ ITo. 2 Hard Winter. 2/ iCo, 1 lark 
Northern Spring. 3./ No. 3 Mojiitoba Northern. 4/ Hear futures. 5/ All sales of 
imported parcels. S/ Home grown wheat in England and Wales. 7/ Domestic. 



1:11-75 



-10- 



The_jfhea.± ^^vj-over in the United Stc^tes 

According to the preliminary e3ti;-ate of the Bureau of ..gr icultur al 
Economics, the carr^'-over of domestic wheat in the United States as of 
July^l, 1952 was 362,658,000 hushels ccmppxed with 318,505,000 a year 
earlier. Ahout 9,500,000 bushels of the July 1, 1932 stocks vrere-. owned 
"b;^ Brazil hut held hj the Grain Stahilizat ion Corporation av/aiting shipment. 
In the following tahle it should he noted that in the first three items of 
stocks of v/heat are reported according to their position withoiit regard to 
ownership. The item, stocks in mills and mill elevators attached to mills, 
includes -./heat owned hy mills, as well as wheat stored in mills and attached 
elevators, hut o\7nod hy others. That portion of the stocks in mills and 
attached elevators v/hich was ovmed hy others is given in the footnote of 
the tahle for the years 1930 to 1952. Prior to 1930, the item, wheat stored 
for others in mills and attached elevators, although not reported, was 
prohahly negligihle. The item, "in transit and hought to arrive", shows 
wheat ^ownod hy mills only. It is likely that a large part of wheat in 
transit to mills on July 1 v/as old wheat. The wheat hought to arrive 
prohahly contained a larger percentage of new v/heat. Since wheat in transit 
and that hought to arrive represents a relatively small percentage of the 
total carry-over, the error involved hy including some new wheat in the 
hought-to-arrive item is of little consecuence. On the other hand, there 
m.ay have hecn some old v;heat in transit on July 1 to huycrs other than 
millers. It should he noted in estimating merchant mill stocks, and wheat 
in tr.-nsit and hought to arrive for July 1, 1952, that those items as 
reported hy the Bureau of the Census on AUgb.st 8, 1932, were adjusted to 
include an estimate for the mills not reporting to the Census. Stocks of 
wheat on farms and interior mills and elevators wore old v/hcat. Commercial 
stocks, that is, wheat in commercial elevators, wore practically all old 
wheat, only a very small amour.t of the nev; crop having hecn delivered to 
these elevators hy July 1. in making compilations of c..rry-ovor prior 
to 1927, Bradstreet'o visible supply v/as used. Beginning with 1927 v/hon 
cormiiorcirJ stocks first hocamo available in the Bureau of .'agricultural 
Economics, that item replaced Bradstrcct's visible in the computation 
of carr;— over figures. 



-.■H-7G -11- 

Tc.tlo o.- Prolimincr:" CGti. c.tc of carry-over of doniootic \;hcr.t in 



the United States in all positions 


reported c 


.s of July 1, 


1930-1952 


1 

}J 






--. 


Jul-j 1, ] 


July 1, 


July 1, 


Iten • 


1930 \ 


1931 


1932 




"~T,'00'0 : 


^r,~000 : 


1,000 




"bushels . 


"bushels : 


hushels 


Stocl'S of old crop v/hcat on farms . . , . . 


47,417 


31,86 5 


71,925 


3tocl:3 of old crop v/hcat in interior mills 






: 41,81? 




50,166 


: 30,252 


Conr.icrcial stocks of doraestic v/hcat . . = .. 


- 1.09,327 


: 203,967 


. 168,405 


Stocks owned hy merchant mills: 








In mills and mill elevators attached 










• 59,170 


: 40,221 


: 70,582 


In transit and bought to arrive . . . 


: 14,706 


: 12,198 


: 9,929 




:"~290, 7'36 


318', 503""' 


r~362,658 



T/'" ' We's^ 'fIgurc~incTud¥'To^^^^ of Canadian uho at imported for 

millinG in "bond into flour for export, "but do not include coniir.ercial stocks 
Canadian \/hoat stored in "bond in Uaited States markets. Commercial stocks o 
United States :;hcat in store in "bond in Canada of 4,729,000 hushels in 1930, 
15,547,000 in 1951 and 15,895,000 hushels in 1932 are not included in the 



United States carry-over. 

2/ Includes an iter;, of "v;hcat stored lor others'" amounting to 12,500,000 
Tushels in 1930, 18,413,000 hushols in 1931, and 7,080,000 bushels in 1932. 



V/orld V/heat Carry-over 

Reports of stocks of old v;hcat as of July 1 in the principal 
exporting ccimtries, together with port stocks in the United Kingdom and 
v;heat afloat, indicate that about 570,000,000 "bushels of v/heat v/erc 
carried over into the 1932-33 season. This conpares v/ith 656,000,000 
a year earlier and 569,000,000 carried into the 1930-51 season. Stocks of 
old v/hcat on July 1 in Argentina rnd Australia v/erc ahout 55,000,000 
"bushels less than a year earlier, "but in t :e Ui.ited States and Canr.da 
the carry-over on July 1 v/as considera"bly larger than a year previous. 

Stocks of \/heat .,n July 1, 1952, in the coujitries not included 
in the following ta"blc wore smaller than stocks in those countries a 
year earlier. In the Darnfoc Basin countries the carr^'^-over as of 
July 1 was reported to "be very small, and in Russia fragmentary reports 
indicate a ncgligi'olG carr3— over. Stocks in Germrjiy were slightly l.^\/cr 
on July 1 than a y^-r.r earlier, and in Frmcc and Ital2' stocks \/ere 
considcra'bly lov/cr than on July 1, 1931. 



VM-75 



-1£- 



Tr.lDlc 7.- \7orld vhocjt crrr3'--ovcr , .1'' July 1, lSoO-1932 



Git ion 



1930 
* 


1931 j 


1932 prcl. 


I.Iiiliun : 


rzT:r^'-'~" , 

Hi 1 1 1 0 n • 


T'Ti 1 1 ion 


"busiiclc ; 


DMGuOXS • 


hnqhcls 


291 




363 


x6 : 


a, 


5 


134 : 


lyio 


2/ 153 


5 


15 


16 


39 . 


: 57 


: 43 


40 ■ 


: 55 


: 33 


S 


: 6 


: 11 


11 


: 19 


: 16 


17 


: 18 


: 19 


■1£ 


: 13 


: 10_ 


559 


: 656 


; 569 



Unitod Str.tos . . .■ 

Ccjic.dian v/hec/o in Unitod St-.tcs 
Cr.nr.da ....<,...»«•••• 

United Str.toG v;liGc.-t, in C?.nr.dr.. 
Argontina ..... • 

Austral ir. = 
Port s'toclcG - United Ain.^i^doi:: . .'• 
Afloat to United Kingdora . - . 
^.float to G . ntinent . . » . . = 
Afloat to order 3 , . . . = . , . . 

Total 

CouT^nrd -a^T olloV^G ; " United "Str-teG'-- -sfoHlEs-on -fennG f "Gtocks J^j^^?"^' 
and^elevatorG, coimercial visible, stoclcG in morchLn.t millG and elc%..o...o. 



■bought to arrive, and in 



transit. Canada - Carry-ovur July 31; 



olu; 



lot 



exioortG during July. Argentina and :aistralia - 1930 and ^5;^^;/:^^; °!^^ 
on'Deceraher 31 plus exports July 1 to Decemher 51. Data for 19.. ^ompux^a 
from the estimate oi the production plus carry-over of old crop lec. -iomc 
conounption (12 months) and exports January 1 - June 30. 



1/ 



Represents 



nearly as poscihle total stocks of old crop v/heat minus 



domestic recuirements for the remainder of, each country's 
minus, requir'enents for July in case of Canada and for July - Decemhcr m c...u 
of Argentina and Australia. 

2/ Includes 1,000,000 hushols afloat for United States ports. 



\7orld Disappearance_ c_f 



Availrhlo dat.. indicate an upv/ard trend in hoth supply and 
disa-opear^^ce of v/heat in the v;orld outside Russia r^-d China during the ■ 
last'ten years. Although the consumption of v;heat in the v/orld has b..n 
increasing it has failed to keep pace uith the incre:.G0 m supplies. 
.Hhe end'of the 1926-27 crop year there ^^re 540,000,000 bushels of old 
^heat accounted for as a ccxry-over into the 1927-28 crop ^ 
crrry-over ^:7aG considorahly larger than that of either of the t.o Pr ^ lou. 
years. Since 1927, hov/ever, the ccxry-over has iDCcn increasing un.ii ..x 



-13^ 



tho beginning of the 1932-35 yoar ztoclzo of r-il v/hoct cmoujitcd to 669,000,000 
"bushels. Totr.l v/orld discppo j.rancG of v/hcr.t, outside of Russia r.nd Chine, 
for 1931-32 -j/as /S, 837, 000, 000 iDushols, which v;as ahout the- scmo as the 
disappoo.rancG for tho previous year, hut considerahly larger than the 
• disappoojrance for 1929-30. The very lov; level of prices during the 1931-32 
season apparently did not stiniulatc ccnsujnption of v/heat hoyond the level 
of the previous year. This may oo accounted for hy the fact that consumer 
purchasing ..pov/er was decreasing at about tho same rate as prices of v/hoat. 
L continuation of the policy of restricted movement of v/heat into importing 
counuries by high import duties and milling quotas also prevented a larger 
disapperjrance of wheat. On the other hand, a relatively large disappearance 
of v/hcat d\jj:ing both 1930-31 and 1931-32 was effected to a largo extent by 
tho imusually large amounts of wheat fed to livestock in the United States. 

In the accompanying table giving world supply, price and dis appearance j 
the total production was computed by adding reported production of v/heat in 
all of the coujitries of the world, except Russia and China. To this total 
production was added stocks of old v/hoat in the principal wheat exporting 
countries together with certain available port stocks in Europe and stocks 
of ^ v/hoat afloat as of July 1. Shipments of v/heat from Russia were also 
added to cor.ploto the total supply figure for the v/orld, outside of Russia 
and China. Total disappe^arance v/as calculated by subtracting stocks at 
the end of the year .rom the total supply. 

The disappearance of wheat and flour in terms of wheat, for food, 
feed and waste in the United States, totaled about 644,000,000 bushels 
for 1931-32 compared with 647,000,000 for the previous year. There were 
aocut 25,000,000 bushels m.ore wheat used for feed in 1931-32 than during the 
previous year. The cj-nount usea for food was smaller than in 1930-31. 

X J. Exports of v/heat ojid flour irom the United States during 1951-32 
i.otaljd about 136,000,000 bushels, about 5,000,000 bushels larger thvn tho 
exports of the previous year. Supplies .;f wheat in the United States for 
the 1931-32 season were about 45,000,000 bushels larger than the supplies 
for the previous year. Tho total accounted for distribution was about 
t-e oarae as that of 1950-51. Consecluently, it was necessary to carry over 
into tnc 1932-33 year about 45,000,000 bushels (wheat and flour) m.ore thaai 
was carried over into the 1931-32 year. The increase in carry-over was 
practically all wheat, since tho carry-over of flour v/as abort the same 
as that of last year. 



■.;"H-7S 



-15' 



HcJolc 9.- '.;liG at, including flour : Supply, di^trilDut ion end disappearance 
in continental United States, 1927-23 to 1932-33 



Item 



SUPPLY 
Stocks, Julj- 1: 

On farms 1/ 

In co-ujntry elevators 
and mills l/. . . 
Conv.icrcial stocks 2,/ 
In merchant mills "and 



elevators 3 



/ 



merchant 



In tra,nsit to 

mills _3/ 

Stored for ot.iors Tdj- 
mcrcliant mills _3/, 
i'otal v/heat as crc.-m 
Flour ( in terms of : 

v/:-ioat ) 4/ : 

Total v-^heat w flour 
Hew crop l/. 
Impo rt s ( fTour inc luded 

^/ 

Total supply . 
UISTRIBUTICl" 
Exports and shipments: 
Exports (flour in- 
cluded) 5/ 

EeexDort si flour in- 
cluded) _5/. . . . . 
Shipments (flour in- 
c lude d) to j.l as!:a , 
Hawai i , and Puayto 

Rico 5/ 

. Tota'l 

Seed recuiremonts s/ 
Disappearance for fo"od, 

feed and waste . . 
Carr: -over, June SO, ?/: 



ly .c f—(io 


: iy(io-2y 


Year be^jini 
: ivdv-c.U I 


.in^ Jul;/ 
i9o0-ol : 


~l"*o" rz*!"" 'r^'c^ 




1 , 000 
uushelc 


: 1,000 
; hushels 


I 1,000 : 
: bushels : 


1 , 000 : 

bushels : 


1,000 
hushcls 


: 1,000 
: buT3hels 


26,717 


23,431 


: 45,829: 


47,417: 


31,855 


. 71,925 


21,776 
21,052 


19,277 
38,587 


: 41,545: 
: 90,442: 


60,156: 
109,327: 


30,252 
203,957 


41,817 
168,405 


37,038. 


31,920 


: 48,279: 


45,570: 


21,808 


53, 502 


11,274 


10,893 


> J. 0 , ~ 0 < • 


14, 70S: 


12,198: 


9,929 


■ Yl7, 8'5"7: 


" " T24Vro"8". 


242,"3"o"3:' 


1 2, 500: 
"■2*90',T86:* 


18,413. 
"3T87503. 


7,080 
352,558 


9,076. 

'T26,'933"': 
874, 633; 


9,019. 
~~ 1337127": 
926,130; 


13, 541: 
" "255, 874':" 
812,573: 


20,497: 
3ir,28"3:" 
858,160: 


5,836; 
" "32"'5,~3"89': 

894,204: 


7,041 
3"S9', 699 



Population, Jan. 1, 8/ 
'er capita dioappecj:- 
ance: 

For food, feed, :^ wast^ 
For food, feed, seed 
and v/aste 



: 15,734: 


21,442 


: 12,956 


: 19,059 


: 12, 88b 




:1, 017, 300: 


1,080,699 


:1, 081, 403 


:1, 188, 502 


:1, 232,479 




: 205,259: 


153,587 


: 153,245 


: 131,475 


: 135, 795 




: 53: 


55 


: 72 


: 20 


: 854 




: 2,690: 


3,172 


2,977 


: 2,850 


: 2,797 




; 209,002: 
: 92,693: 


165,914 
85,375: 


. 155,29'-x 
84,814 


: 134,3^5 
31, 502 


: 159,456 
79,092 




> : 
. 532,473: 
: 133,127: 
: l7uT7','500': 


572,536 
255,874: 
■lV080V6'99. 


298,785 
lV08T,"4"0'3 


647,465 
: 325,389: 
:r,'l'88",502; 


644,232 
369,599. 
Y, 252, 479" 




: Thousand's";' 


Thovisands; 


Thousands . 


Thousands ' 


Thou scalds . 


Thousand 


'. 119,029: 


120,594. 


122,359: 


124,000: 


124,511; 




Bushels : 


Bushels : 


Bushels : 


Bushels : 


Bushels . 




: 4,894: 


4,744: 


4,425: 




5,174: 




> • 

5,o72- 


5,451. 


5,119: 


5,877; 


5,809: 



i3ureau ol ..gr icultui-al Economics. Compiled as follows: T/B^ased' on' VetuVn¥'tV'-!?ne 
Bureau from crop reporters. ^'Bureau of ..r r icultiixal Economics, 1927-28 to 1932-35. 
V Bureau of the Census fi;;^res raised to represent all merchant mills. 4/From 
Chica-so Dail-- Trade 3ulletin._5/From reports of the Bureau of Foreign and~Domcstic 
Commerce ._5/ijnount of seed used per acre from returns to the Bureau from inquiries 
sent to crop reporter s._7/For individual items see above .8/5^-0 au of the Census. 



\7II-75 



D^ir'Orn \".1ioat prospcctc 

Durun prices, which ccrlior in the ^ei.iv hud , been hirh rol-tivc to other 
wheat prices, have "been falling since .ah out March, and hy i.u.^nst 12 l-o. 2 Dvx-'jxa 
at Minneapolis v/as 9 cents helov/ Ho.' 1 ITorthG'rn Spring' at the narket and only 1 
cent ahpve' Fo.. 2.'Hard \7intcr' at Kcaisas City. The decline in durum prices is 
prohahly partly attrihutahlc to a failure of the foreign niarhets to increase 
talcings in. the spring after the -opening of the' Groat Le.lces, when the Italian 
foreign durura quota was increased, and possihly also pertly attri outahle to 
declines in feed grain prices. Llore recently the prospect of increased durum 
production has dpuhtlcss hocn a factor of increasing importance in the durum 
price declines, in the past tv/elve years duriijn prices have tended to be high in 
relation to bread wheat prices when durum supplies in the United States, Canada, 
Italy and ITorth hfri'ca were below average and to be low when duru^-a production in 
those countries was above average. .Lest y.ar durvLri production v/as ujiusually 
small. This yecr early reports indicate a probable total crop in these countries 
well in e:-:cess of last ^-car but below the average of the last five years. 

■ United States durum wheat supplies are .estimated 'at about 61,470,000 
'bushels, about 21, 050, eOO bushels .greater then the unusually short supply of 
40,4-20,000 bushels for the year 1931-32, but shorter then in any other recent 
year except 1925-2G. Durum production in 1932, placed at 52,175,00.0 bushels, 
is nearly three times the small crop of 1931 but evidences of supplies of old crop 
durum point to a reduction in carry-over from 21,500,000 bushels July 1, 1951 
to 9,292,000 bushels July 1, 1932. 

The dururn supply is utilized principally in four ways, grindings for 
semolina, seeding requirements, experts in the form of grain, and utilization 
for livestock feed, for mixing with other wheats, et cetera. Of these the 
grindings and seed requirements vary comparatively little from, year to year. 
Exports and ot ier utilization vary widely, Durura utilization for livestock 
feeds, \7ili probably be considerablj^ larger than last year v/hen its use was cur- 
tailed by the shortage of supplies,, especially of red durum. However, due to the 
increase expected in feed grain production this year, a slack demand is r.ow in 
prospect for durum for feeds. 

Exports in 1932-33 will probably face keener com.petition from' foreign 
durum crops than last year due to probable increases in harvests in Canada 
and Italy. G-rowing conditions in I.Ianitoba are much improved over last ;,ear. 
There is further possibility of increase due to increased acreage resulting from 
a shift from bread wheat to durum. ..s a result there is a prospect of a 
harvest ■ nearly double that of 1931 from v.'hich inspections through June have 
reached 8,030,000 bushels. Dur\-ira stocks at Fort •."/illiam-Port Arthur the end of 
July were 321,000 bushels, slightly smaller than the 354,000 a year earlier. 
In Ital;- durum yields are no\/ indicated to be as good as, or better than, last 
year and acreage is reported to have been increafsed about a fourth by a shift 
from, bread v/heat. L 25 per cent increase in production would give a harvest of 
•33,000,000 bushels compared with a 1931 official estim.ate of 50, 5V9, 000 bushels . 
Torth i.frican durura production is osxif-aated by i.ssistant ..gricultural 
Coinmissioner Mallory at Marseille at 49,800,000 bushels, prac '.icallj^ the saiae 
as the 50,300,000 bushels ha'rvested in 1931. The prospect for durum exports 
from Russia is especiall;'- uncertain biit repo'rts of reduced spring wheat acreage 
in the region about the Black Sea where dururii is grown, together v/ith reports of 
hot, dry v;eather in Jm-.e do not indicate an;-- increase this ^ear in the amoxmt of 
durum available for export. 



-17- 



Exports in 1931-32 v/ere onlj about 4,700,000 Uishels, the smalloot 
quantity sent out in an;' of the past tv/olvG years at least. The short United 
States durum supply and hi^h prices as co.-p-'i^rGd with other classes of v/heat v;ere 
prohahly the principal factors in the light export moveraenb. Stocks of Russian 
durur.i in Italian markets ahout the beginnin::; of the season were probably an 
additional factor. 'The ^uota system adopted in Italy about a year ago may have 
been an additional factor but failure of the export movement to pick up after 
the foreign quota had been increased suggests that it was only a minor factor. 
There is little evidence to shov/ that the quot^. system in France had any 
important effect in limiting imports to that coimtrj'-. Thus nev; a^uota regulations 
in France and Italy are not nov/ looked vipon as of great importance in limiting 
durum imports. Ijn. increase in the Germ.an tariff may have more efloct. 

decree effective July 7, 1932, in southern Italy and July 15 in northern 
Italy allows the use of only 5 per cent of foreign durujn in milling operations. 
This quota is the same as that put into operation about a yG0.r earlier. Last 
year that quota v/as kept in effect daring the sumr.iur and most of the avitumn v/hilo 
Italian durum v/as plentiful, then v/as gradually ameliorated until by February 1, 
1932 the use of 80 per cent foreign durum v/as allov/ed in the coujitry and by 
April 25, 90 per cent v;as allov/od in north and central Italy and 85 per cent 
in the rest of the country. This year v;ith a probable larger Italian durura crop 
the foreign quota may not be increased as much nor as rapidly as last year. 
Italian durur.i imports have been low the pas". season, amounting to only 7,114,000 
bi^shels in the ten months, July 1931-April 1932, compared with 20,757,000 
bushels in that period of 1930-31. There is a considerable use of substitutes 
in place of durvjn in the manufacture of macaroni prodvicts in Italy, especially 
northern Italy, according to J.H. Shollonbergcr . The practice is fostered 'by the 
necessity of keeping semolina costs lov/, a necessity imposed by the regulations 
of various municipalities prescribing maximuin retail prices for macaroni 
products. In a year such as 1931-32, v/hen prices of American dvirum wheat v;ere 
higher in relation to bread \;hoats than in an.y other recent yecr, there would 
be a much greater tendency than usual to use substitutes. - reduction in the 
dollar purchasing pov/or of the lira in 1931-32 probably had a further tendency 
to restrict Italian purchases. The exchange rate \;hich had been falling since 
about August 1931 v/as lov/er in JcJiuary 1952 than in any month in the preceding 
five ^'cars. partial recover;' v/as effected in Fobl-uary but the rate has beai 
falling since and in July v/as lov/er than in any recent month except Jc-jiuary. 

In Frcnco a decree elfectivc August 1, 1932 fixes the minimur.i percentage 
of duru?. of North ^.frican origin to be used in manufo-cture of semolina and 
macaroni products at 97 per cent of the total, compared with 70 per cent inaug- 
urated in a decree of June 29, 1930 and increased to 90 per cent in a decree 
of July 9, 1931 which became effective July 15 of that year. The official 
figures on French trade in durcjn do not indicate any appreciable lessening in 
French imports from foreign countries as a result of the restrictions the past 
tv/o years, and tend to indicate rather that the amoutit of imports from foreign 
covintrics for French consuinption depend on the size of the North ..frican crop. 
It must be borne in mind, hov/cvor, that rather frocuont changes are made in 
the French statistical methods of reporting trade, so no hard and fast con- 
clusions con be drawn. Imports for domestic consumption for the eleven months 
July-llay, 1929-30, before the decrees vore in operation but following a big 
North African dvirum production, included 933,000 bushels or 11 per cent non- 



/ 



WH-76 



-18- 



Africcai durum. In the corresponding period of 1930-31 with a mch smaller 
ITorth Africoji crop, the iraports frora foreign countries for domestic consumption 
reached 3,336,000 bushels, 33 per cent of the total, when the 70 per cent 
colonial q.uota Was in effect.- In those months of 1931-32 when ])Iorth African 
production had increased slightly, imports from foreign countries for domestic 
consianption reached 3,151,000 bushels or 28 per cent of the total although 
the milling regulations prescribed the use of 90 per cent colonial duram. 

In Germany a measure was passed, effective Aagu.st 1, raising the import 
duty on durum wheat for manufacturing sem.olina from 73 cents to 114 cents a 
bushel, for a contingent equivalent to 50 per cent of last year's consuinption. 
Pres^janably the general wheat tariff 162 cents a bushel is to be levied against 
any bolonce of durum imported beyond the contingent. It is estimated that the 
import requirements for semolina will be cut ■ down from 5,500,000 bushels to 
2,750,000 bushels by the measure. Germic?ji imports at the 73 cent duty from 
July 1, 1931 through April 1932 reached 4,921,000 bushels. 

Table 10.- Supply and distribution of durum wheat in the United States, 
average 1926-27 to 1930-31, and yearly, 1929-30 to 1932-33 



I tem 



S\i pply 
Stocks July 1 

On farms and country mills 

and elevators l/ : 

Commercio,l stocks : 
Minneapolis and Duluthg/ 
Hew crop 3/ 

Total supply , 

Distribution 

AmiOUiit ground 5/777 , 

Exports as grain 6/ ..... 
Estimo-ted seed require- 
ment 7/ 

Other utilization 8/ ... 
Garry-over June 30 !_/ 2/ 



Average ; 
1926-27 : 
to 

1930-31 ! 


1929-30 : 


1930-31 : 


1931-32 : 


1932-33 
preliminary 


1,000 
bushels : 


1,000 : 
bushels; 


1,000 : 

bushels 


1,000 : 
bushels : 


1,0C0 
bushels 


7,010 : 


11,470 


11,980 : 


4,760 


2,330 


' 5,105 
4/(6^000) 


8,928 
56,307 


: 10,375 
: 59,162 


16,7-iO 
: 18,920 


6,962 
52,175 


80,115 


• 76,705 < 


81,517 


40 , 420 


61,467 


14,346 
26 , 


15,019 
. 14,800 


: 14,190 
12,100 


: 13,242 
4,700 




7,700 
16,2.10 
15,429 


7,200 
• 17,331 
: 22,355 


5,800 ■ 
: 26 , 927 
: 21,500 


5,100 
: 7,086 
: 9,292 





Compiled as follows: 

1/ Based on returns to the Bureau from crop reporters. 

2/ I>aluth Daily Comi-aercial Record aiad Minneapolis Daily Market Record. 

3/ Estimates of Division of Crop Estimates. 

4/ Including rough approximation for "other States" in years 1926-1928. 
5/ United States Department of Commerce; Foodstuffs 'Round the './orld. 
6/ Apportionment of total United States wheat ■ exports on the basis of 

United States inspections for export and inspections in Eastern 

Canadian Grain Division. 
7/ 1,3 bushels per acre seeded tne following year for four States plus 

rougli approximation for other States. 
Sj All duruiT. not otherv;ise accounted for. 



Y,'H-76 



-19- 



Table 11.- j'rance: Dur-'ji-n v/heat, im-oorts "by countries, July - Hay, 

1929-30, l930-3l'and 1931-32 



• Conmierce g .:ecial i Commerce t Ssnera l 

Covu-itry : 1929-30 : 1930-3 ^ ; l"31-52 : 1930-31 ; 1931 -33 

: July-"-:a:y : July-i!ay : Jul :v-;.!ay : Ju ly-Kay : July-I.Iav 

: Bushel s : Bushel s : Bushels : Bushel s : Bu shel s. 

United States : 482,947 : 867,172: 342,003 : 556,702 : 288,630 

Canada : 409,041 : 2,148,982: 2,106,117 : 2,670,281 : 2,123,673 

Soviet Russia .... : iJ : iJ ' iJ ' iJ '• iJ 

Algeria : 3,492,704 : 4,523,034: 2,908,870 : 4,606,071 : 2,943,332 

T^nis : 3,800,308 : 2,012,939: 3,557,056 : 1,978,052 : 3,593,042 

Morocco : 346,989 : 117,259: 1,489,810 : 129,094 : 1,563,833 

BelgiuiT. : 1,400 : 29,913: 35,972 : l/ : 35,972 

Argentine Repuhlic : if : 145,227: l/ : ll • ll 

Other countries .. :2/ 44,357 :2/ 143,461:2/ 667,005 :2/ 341,598 :2/ 757,423 

^o^a-1 : 8,577,745 : 9,988,987 :11,106,833 :10,281,898 :11,505,905 



Com-iiled from Statistique liensuelle du Conmerce Exterieur de la France. 

1/ If a-ny, included in other countries. 

2/ Other countries ohtained "by suhtraction. 



Tahle 12.- Italy: Imports of durum wheat hy countries, July-April, 

1929-30 to i::..51-32 



Country from : July- Apr- 

__which imported : 1929- 30 ; 1950-31 [_ 1 931-32 

: Bushels : Bushels : Bushels 

Gormanj^ : 73 : 0 : 37 

Soviet Russia : 468,073 : 5,950,650 : 3,594,138 

Argentina : 200,472 : 392,640 : 249,119 

Canada 1/ ; 8,140,339 : 11, 234, 458 : 2,323,171 

United States 1/ : 2,249,500 : 3,000,387 : 592,156 

Other countries : 466.457 : 178.903 ; 254,952 

-^■tal :11,524,914 :20,767,038 : 7,113,583 



v^omDiled from Statistica del Commercio Speciale di Importazione e di 
x^sportazione, 

1/ rluch United States durum is exported through Canada and is listed 
in reports of importing countries as originating in Canada. 



-20- 



The Cont inent al E-gropean mieat- Market Situation During Julv 1/ 

The wealcer tone of overseas wlieat markets, comloined v;ith the favorahle 
crop ^rosoects in the continental European deficit countries has created a 
reserved attitude on the part of continental importers, and in s^Dite' cf low 
stocks the demand from flour mills has also heen greatly restricted. The 
Shortage of old crop v;heat has "been further accentuated hy a rainj^ period 
around the middle two weeks of July, .which delayed harvesting, but,' as it is 
only a very short tiiae hefore the new crox) hecoraes available, a revival of 
import activity is not expected. 

■^^^'^"^^^^s 0^" foreign wheat were nearly all of a hand-to-mouth character. 
Holland and Belgium have been interested mainly in Llanitobas, Plates, and Imrd 
x7inters. 

Russia has appeared recently on the market with some small offerings of 
wheat which appear destined for Italy. ■ 

Tne continuation of political uncertainty, adverse economic conditions 
and currency difficulties have made foreign trade in wheat extremely difficult. 
The results of the Lausanne negotiations were only temporarily reflected in the 
grain market and produced no fundamental change in the^ situation. The trend, 
ooward imoort restrictions and economic isolation continues, with many couiitries 
stopping the few gaps through which wheat was permitted to enter Europe last 
, year.^ The favorable crop prospects in the continental deficit countries have 
brought^about new protective measures, particularly in aermany, and domestic 
production in practically all of these countries is now protected by a compli- 
cated system of measures regulating both internal and foreign trade. 

In general, the price tendency has been slightly downward in sympathy 
with world market developments. There were exceptions, however, from this 
general statement, as a result of short supplies in some of the countries which 
brought about a pronoianced finnness in soot prices, whereas new crop -orices 
showed only slight changes. 

■.,'heat and flour shipments to the ' Continent during recent weeks have shown 
a lalling tendency, but continued above those for the same period a year ago. 
Shipments to the Continent at this time' last year also declined. Tforld shipments 
of wheat and flovx to the Continent, the United Kingdom, and on order also de- 
clined and were below those of last year. Danubian and Russian shipments in 
recent weeks have been practically nil. As a matter of fact, Russia is reported 
to have bought recently some Australian wheat and flour for shipment to Vladivos- 
tok, In the last few days, however, Russian of fers of new wheat have arpeared. 

1/ Based on report of Assistant Agricultural Commissioner D. 1. Christy, 
-Berlin, Ger.Tiany, July 27, 1932. 



V.'H-76 



-21- 



Talole 13.- Price ^er 'oiishel of d^.^icstic vheat at s'oecified i^arkets 
June-Aug^ast 5, 1931 and Jiono 1 - August 3, 1932 



Date 



1931 17 
June 4 .... 
July 2 .... 
Aug. 5 . . , . , 

1932 2/ 
June 1 .... 
July 5 

13 .... 
20 .... 

27 

Aug. 3 



1^/ Prices converted at par exchange. 

2/ Prices converted as current rates of exchange. 

3/ New crop. 





Paris . 


Iiilan 


• 

Berlin 




Vi Rnna 


Po znan 




Cents 


L-ent s 


Cents • 




Cents • 


Cents 




195 : 


157 


174 : 


124 ; 


' ■ 9b : 


97 




190 


134 


172 : 


124 J 


- — 


84 




167 


130 


12-0 ; 


116 


104 ; 


60 




. ■ 187 


■ 164 ■ 


; 173 


S 115 • 


: ■ 132 






181 


: 3/ ■ 147 '■ 


• 152 


tip; 


J- 






: 180 


: ■ 136 •• 


• 152 


: 118 ■■ 


: 133 ■ 






: 177 


: ' 136 • 


: 156 




: 133 






\ 177 


: 139 ■ 






: • 126 






: 152 


: 135 


: 143 




: ■ 126 







Tatle 14.- Continental European stocks of wheat, the middle of June 
and the middle of July, 1931 and 1932 



Location 



Antwerp 

Rotterdam 

Perl in (heat and flour) 
Hamh-'arg (rough Estimate) 

Bremen and Brafce 

German farm stoclcs 

German "second hand" 
stocks 3/ 



19 



Llnddle of 



1,000 

"bushel s^ 

1,290 
1, 650 
1,190 
1 , 360 
37 
4,000 



Middle of 



1,000 

p-Ushsl.S 

2,120 
1,290 
2j 580 
1,070 • 
• 37 



1932 



Middle of 
Jun g 



1,000 
"bushels 

940 
700 

1/ 880 
550 
170 
■ 5,920 

4/ 20,600 



Middle of 
Jui.v 



1,000 
l)ushel s, 

2,090 
1,030 
2 ^ 530 
... 590 
• 99 



5/ 15-, 400 



ly End of June. 2j End of J-aly-. 3/ In warehouses and flour mills (wheat 
and flour); these totals are estimated to include 95 per i:ent of the second hajad 
stocks act^aally existing and, therefore, must contain most of the Berlin, Ham'juxg, 
and Bremerr-3ra"kc data. 4/ June 1. 5/ July 1. 



WH-76 



Table 15.-- "'heat and wheat flour shipments to the Continent, stated 

periods, ,1928-29' to 1931-^32 ■ 



Four v/eeks ended \ 


1928-29 ! 


192.9-30 \ 


1930-31 


1931- 3^i 




1,000 Wshels: 


1,000' hushols: 


1.000 bushels: 


1.000 "bushels 


Aug, 27 . . .■ : 


32,000-: i 


14,360 : 


. 25,600 : 


. 14,080 




32. .9 60' •• 


14,240 : 


: 28,160 :: 


1.8„ 560 


Oct. 22 - : 


31 .■•360 


a 4, 720 


■ 23,040 : 


.24,160 


Nov, 19 : 


36, -4-00 : 


16,760 


; 20,720 


25,240 


Dec . 17 . . .■ ■ ; 


29 ,'280 • - ; 


■19,360 ; 


- 16,000 


. .18,240 


Jan. 14 * ; 


27 -720 • < 


: 9 , 496 I. 


: 13,560 •: 


. 9,760 


FelD, 11 : 


26. -120 ■ 


14, 760 


: 17,440 ; 


■ 15,120 








1 9 240 


.17,000 


Apr, 8 ; 


22,720 • ! 


•15,520 


: • 16,320 


. . 17,560 




19, -8 40' 


: 13,000 


: ; 27,600 . 


: . .20 , 360, 




32,880 ■ 


! 20,520 


: 34,760 


: • 18,960 




30 , 000 


: 20,240 


: 16,680 


• 19 , 4(J(4 




16,320 


! 21,360 


1 11,960 


: 13,560 


Aus. 1 to Julv 30 . . 


364,240 


210 696 


: 271,080 


: 232,000 


A'bove shipments. 










supplied "by: 








: 28 , 976 




: 3,008 
: 8 


: 15,136 


: 14,168 




J 3,768 


16,064 


: 8,680 




: 361,224 


191,792 


: 240,848 


: 194,344 



TalDle 16.- ^ATaeat and wheat flour shi^oments to Europe, stated periods, 

1928-29 to 1931-32 



?our v/eeks ended [ 


1928-29 ; 


1929-30 ! 


• 1930-31 ' 


1951-32 




1,000 hushels: 


1,000 hushels 


1.000 "bushels: 


1,000 iDUshels. 




47,160 ; 


45,600 : 


■ 50,480 : 


46,120 




50,800 : 


41,320 ; 


• ■ 54,080 : 


52 , 800 




50,600 ! 


■ 40,120 ! 


• • ■ 5S, 080 : 


50,840 




59,550 : 


30,120 ! 


■ 58,160 ! 


50,040 




53,200 ; 


30,160 : 


•■37,560 • 


35,880 




52,950 . . 


27,720 


30,360 


: 33,800 




60,440 


36,960 


43,280 " 


42,600 




60,120 ; 


32,720 . 


43,200 


45,560 




; 51,720 


: . 31,360 ■ . 


38,640 


43,080 




42,680 


; ■ 2"5,520 


45,920 


49 , 400 




; 55,120 


: 37,680 


61,480 


; 49,950 




51,320 


: 39,920 


46,640 


39,440 




38,120 


: 43.200 


; 33.680 


! 28.520 


Aug. 1 to July 30 . 


673,800 


: 463,400 


: 596,560 


: 569,040 


Al) 0 ve sh ipm ent s 










supplied iDy: 








: 38,000 




: 3,008 


: 18,336 


: 15,016 




: 8 


: 7,088 


: 97,680 


: 73,080 




: 670,784 


: 437,976 


: 483,864 


: 457,960 



Estim ated .TJh eat_Defj^it _Bu^^ 

European Countries - 

The 19 continental coiintries considered in our estimates are expected 
to use less overseas wheat during the 1932-33 season than was the case in either 
of the past two crop years. The estimates suhmitted at this time must of neces- 
sity include a wide range of possibilities, hecause of the uncertainty regarding 
a numher of the factors involved. Of particular importance is the trend of gen- 
eral business during the coming season. According to past records it appears 
that slight declines in business conditions of short duration do not signifi- 
cantly affect the continental v/heat consumption.' Extensive declines, on the 
other hand, such as have been experienced during the past three years, apparently 
induce a severe reduction in the" consumption of wheat. Should business conditions 
continue at present low levels, the consumption may be further reduced. 

A further factor of uncertainty is the effect of the numerous govern- 
mental restrictions pertaining to both the importation and consumption of wheat. 
We have attempted to make allowance for those now in force, but, of course, these 
restrictions may be changed or added to without notice. 

Present estimates are based largely on the relation of domestic produc- 
tion to consumption and imports. The present favorable crop prospects on the 
Continent point toward greatly reduced imports. 



Russia. 



The Final R esults of the 19 32 S pring Sowing C ampaign 

■ The complete preliminary figures for this year's spring sowing campaign 
indicate total sowings of 238,886,000 acres or only slightly (0.4 per cent) 
below the corresponding figure for 1931. 

Present crop .o.itlook in Russia 

The present crop outlook in Russia continues uncertain, but recent 
indications lead us to believe that yields will not be above average. Hot dry 
weather has been experienced in many areas of the Union which has brou£;ht about 
a deterioration of all crops. Information just received on winter crops indi- 
cates that conditions for the Union as a v/holc are generally average, with the 
below average conditions in some sections offset by above average conditions 
in others. The best conditions arc reported along the weptorn bank of the Volga 
river, parts of the central fertile region, TIThite Russia, and parts of the 
central and .Qast-central sections of Russia. The most noticeable deterioration 
during the past month has occurred in north- Caucasus, eastern Crimea, the ex- 
treme couth c^astern section of the Ukraine, and that territory '•euctof the Volga 
river. Conditions in these regions were above average on June 10, but in July 
were reported as only average or even slightly below. It is ^rly reasonable to 



-24- 



expect similar and even more pronounced deterioration in the case of 
spring crops* Below average yields, therefore, are e^rpected in some of 
the (sastern regions of ' European Russia as •well .:as > in v/estern Siheria and 
Kasakstan. On the hasis of present. conditians ahove average yields are 
expected in the Ural and central fertile regions, with ahout average yields 
in hoth Ukraine and North "Caucasus. • •■ ■.! 

Harvesting; cam-pai/yn . -....l , .n-.'-..-- • . 

Harvesting hegan arouhd-ithe end of June in- the southern sections 
of :the Union, and the 'acreage^ for 'harvest ''of winter and early spring crops 
is placed at 6,111,000 acres, compared with 5,760^000 9,cres at the same time 
a year agoo Harvesting is prbceeding more rapidly than last year in many 
regions, hut is greatly behind' in' • the important regions of U^iraine, North 
Caucasus and Crimea, particularly the -formero Local complaints indicate 
that rains have interfered with the field work, hut organization difficul- 
ties are, no douht, again an important factoro 

.The press is, as usual, full of complaints; of shortage in machinery, 
untimely cutting,- arid the improper care of the grain after cutting. There.- 
are now many indications of the great losses experienced during last year's 
harvest, and efforts are being made by the Government to avoid a recurrence 
of such losses this year» Some regions now report that as much as 30 per 
cent to 40 pGr cent of the grain was lost through improper handling last 
year. In view of the continued shortage of machinery and livestock it is 
unlikely that such losses will be eliminated during this year's harvesting 
campaign, ■ 

General , 

The food shortage has become so acute that the authorities have 
recently been forced to purchase additional cargoes. pf wheat and flour. 

The Berlin office expects smaller wheat exports from Eussia this 
year, as a result of the late sowings, recent crop deterioration and the 
lack of significant offers of new crop wheat this late in the season. In 
addition, the recent imports of v/heat and flour indicate that domestic stocks 
are virtually^ exhausted. 

Last year- an abundant crop of early. v/hoat was available from those 
sections nearest the Black Sea, out the crop prospects are not so favorable 
in tho'se regions this year, and exports are not likely to be so voluminous 
during the first part of the season a;s was the case a year ago. 



\m-76 



25- 



Marke.b Sept ioi\ 

Gerrnaiiy ., ,...„•„ _ , ' . . ' 

German wheat. njarkets. were gen'erally quiet throughout July,, with a re- 
luctant attitude apparent -on the part of both buyers and sellers. The protection- 
istic actions of the new cabinet resulted in a firm undertone and sporadic ' waves 
of buying. On the other hand, the favorable development of crop conditions and 
the expectation of a • crop: large enough to cover dom.estic requirements had a 
bearish influence on, the market. Prices for later deliveries of new crop ex- 
perienced only slight' changes, but in spot wheat there were several ups and 
downs. The scarcity of available stocks coLibined with the expectation of a 
comparatively late harvest resulted in a very firm tendency for spot wheat 
during the past week. 

Table 17. -Germany: Price per bushel of domestic wheat and rye at 
specified markets, June 8-August 3, 1932 



Y/heat : Rye 

Breslau : Berlin : Berlin 
_!/_ 1/ I iL. 



: Cents : Cents : Cents : Cents 

June 8 : 176 : — : 168 : 116 

15 : 171 : 160 : 161 : 112 

22 : 165 : 162 : 163 : 112 

29 : 166 : 162 : 162 : 115 

July 6 : 161 : 154 : 152 : 113 

13 : 158 : 152 : 152 : 107 

20 : 156 : • 149 : 156 : 

27 ... , : 159 : 149 : ' -~ : ' 101 

Aug. 3 : 157 : 147 : 147 : 98 



Price converted at current rates of exchange. 

1/ 7/heat of average quality of 57,9 pounds per V/inchester bushel. 
2/ "i.larkischer" wheat 58,3 - 59.0 pounds per Winchester bushel, 
3/ "Llarkischer" rye of 55,9 - 56.7 pounds per V/inchester bushel. 

Farm and second-hand stocks in Germany are small and just about sufficient 
to cover the current needs without necessitating abnormally large imports. V/ith 
large offerings from the new domestic crop expected soon, millers and bakers 
are trying to get along with a minimum of stocks. Figures on grain stocks in 
mills and warehouses representing about 95 per cent of the total second-hand 
stocks arc reported as follows: 



VJH-75 



-26- 



Table 18 .-Germany : Stocks of grriii o.nd grain flour in 
mills and warehouses, specified dates, 1932 



Date 


Wheat 


Waeat 
flour 


Rye 


Rye : 
flour : 


Oats ; 


Barley 




1,000 


1,000 


1,000 


1,000 , 


1,000 


1 , 000 




bushels 


barrels, 


bushels 


barrels 


bushels : 


bushels 


1932 ; 














Feb. 29 


19,878 


1,667 


' 14,094 


: 685 


• . 8,970 


8,221 


Ivlar , 31 


13,666 


1,463 


• 14 , 684 


: 630 






Apr. 30 


15,947 


1,409 


• 14,645 


: 670 




4,225 


May 31 


. 14,844 


1,327 


13,543 


: 630 


4,478 


3,215 


June 30 


: 9,810 


1,305 


: 8,976 


: 517 


: 3,307 


: 1,975 



The above figures show a sharp reduction in second-hand stocks of both 
virheat and rye compared to a month earlier. Farm stocks of wheat are also small, i 
but slightly larger than a year ago, while farm stocks of rye are considerably I 
smaller than a year ago. Imports of ?/heat during the month of July may reach \ 
about 1,800,000 bushels. 

The new Government has acted promptly in decreeing a system of protective 
measures for the coming season. The proposed m.easures to be taken were official- 
ly announced by the Minister :of Agriculture early, in July, and most of them have 
since been put into effect. The milling quota for domestic v/heat will remain 
97 per cent, except for about 845,000 bushels of Farm Board wheat which is still 
unused, the milling quota for which is set at 70 per cent until August 15. The 
general wheat tariff is ^1,62 per bushel now, and the special tariff of Ol'l? 
which was applied in certain cases has not been prolonged as v/as already in- 
dicated in our last report. ■ . ... 

In order to promote the export of grain, "export certificates" will bo 
issued for exports of wheat, rye, and milling products. For exports made be- 
tv^een August 1 and October 31 the export certificates will allow the same amount 
of the respective grains to come in duty free, but the export certificates 
issued for exports between November 1, 1931, and January 31, .1932, call for the 
payment of a tariff of 5 cents per bushel on wheat imports, and 3 cents per 
bushel on rye. The corresponding duties of the "Austauschverkehr" of last year 
were 13 cents and 6 cents. It is interesting to note that the time for the 
re-import of the exported grain is not limited to the second half of the year, 
as 7ms asked for by the agricultural groups. It is thought or hoped that about 
7,000,000 bushels of wheat and a small amount of rye may be exchanged in this way. 

To further reduce' the quantity of durum wheat which is used for manufac- 
turing semolina, the tariff on this type of wheat has been increased from 73 
cents per '"bushel to si^l.lS and the factories are not allov/ed to use more than 
50 per cent of the wheat they imported last year. This new regulation will 
become effective on Augvist 1. It is estimated that by this measure the import 
requirements for semolina will be cut dovm from about 5,500,000 bushels to 
2,800,000 bushels. 

To improve the market for domestic feed grains the corn import monopoly 
v:as extended to include grain sorghums. Grain sorghums which v/ere formerly of 
little importance, have been imported in increasing quantities during the past 
year. The tariff was the same as for corn, i. e, 15 cents per bushel, and as 



WT-V6 



-27- 



there were no other import restrictions this product could easily compete v/ith 
other feed grains. This hole in the protective system has heen eliminated by 
inoj.uding grain sorghums in the corn monopoly and fixing their prices in lino 
with the competing products. The monopoly price for corn v/as raised early in 
July from 85 cents per bushel for Danubian and 94 cents for Plate corn to 
i„vl,OQ and ^^^1.18 respectively. The tariff on feed rice v/ill be raised from 

to $5.40 per short ton effective August 1. All these measures have as 
their object the improvement of the market for domestic feed grains. 

There is still some Russian rye in the hands of the Getreidehandelsgese 
Echaft which v/as bought several months ago. This rye will now be disposed of 
by selling it together with domestic barley. A ton of barley together with a 
ton of Russian rye will be sold for $76 or an average of ^38 per ton (97 cents 
■pev bushel for rye arid 83 cents for barley) which is quite an attractive price 
at the present time. 

There is some fear that this year's rye will not be so easily absorbed, 
so it was deemed advisable to abolish the order which required a milling ex- 
traction of 70 per cent. 

The Ministry of Agriculture has made a number of agreements vath the 
central bank, the cooperative associations, the trade, flour mills, etc., with 
the aim of alleviating the market pressure at harvest time. Farmers are pro- 
tected from foreclosure during the harvesting period which extends up to 
September 30, and special provisions are made to supply them with credit in 
cases of emergency. The central bank is providing special credit funds for 
warehousing grain, and the flour mills have agreed to store a larger quantity 
than usual for a period of four months. • The costs of storing will be reduced 
considerably by Governj:nent subsidies. 

France 

The French wheat markets were very inactive during the period under 
review. Offerings of spot wheat were very small, but at the same time milling 
demand was greatly restricted and only small quantities changed hands. Farm 
stocks of the old crop are exhausted in most parts of the country, except 
Brittany where only inferior qualities are available. Prices for old v;heat 
experienced a slight increase during the past month, but the quotations were 
more or less nominal. Mill stocks seem to be extremely sm_all, but y/heat from 
the new crop is expected very soon and millers are postponing their require- 
ments wherex-er it is possible. Prices for later deliveries remained almost 
unchanged throughout the month. 

The foreign wheat milling quota was reduced twice, toward the end of 
.June from 40 per cent to 35 per cent and around July 10 from 35 per cent to 
25 per cent and later to 15 per cent. 

Italy 

The Italian wheat market was characterized by a very m.oderate business 
in foreign wheat, but operations in domestic wheat were fairly active. The 
high milling quota for domestic wheat, now effective in all parts of the countr 
is cutting down the imports of foreign wheat, but some purchases of Manitobas 
and also of Russian v;heat wore reported, 



-28- 



The savings banks and the agricultural banks have made special agreements 
to provide loans on grain in order to. avoid the pressure in the market which is 
expected after the harvest. In a recent; agreement betv/een Italy and Hungary 
a preferential tariff on a quantity of 170,000 tons of Hungarian wheat is 
plarmed. This agreement, hov7over, is not yet effective. 

Danube Basin V/heat S ituation During Ju ly l/. 

The outstanding features of the wheat situation in the Danube Basin, from, 
the middle of June to the middle of July, v/ere: 

(1) A decrease in the forecasted 1932 wheat production (winter and 
spring wheat combined) to only 248,000,000 bushels, as compared with 
the June forecast of 288,000,000 bushels, a revised estimated 1931 pro- 
duction of 358,000,000 bushels the 5-year average production for 1926 
to 1930 of 318,000,000 bushels. 

The reduction in the 1932 forecast is primarily due to hot sultry 
weather which resulted in premature ripening and a rapid development of stem- 
rust in all Danube Basin countries. 

(2) The harvest will be about two weeks late. It is now believed 
that practically all of the 1932 crop will be ready for m.arket by the 
middle of August. 

(3) Definite indications that a large proportion of the 1932 crop will 
be of low quality (below 59 pounds per bushel). 

(4) Exceptionally small forecasted exports for the month of July 1932, 
on account of the late harvest, and because farmers are withholding old 
wheat for use as seed and their own use as flour. July exports from 

the Basin are believed not to exceed 920,000 bushels. . . 

(5) Offers of relatively high prices for old v;heat in all countries 
of the Danube Basin, except in Bulgaria. 

(6) Discontinuation or proposed discontinuation of Government wheat 
monopolies, and other methods of forcing wheat exports. 

Exports from the Danube Basin during 1932-33 will be. influenced by a 
number of factors that under normal conditions do not influence exports at all, 
or only to a minor extent. 

Under normal conditions the most important factors influencing Danube 
Basin \7heat exports are.vrtaeat production and corn production. 

In 1931-32 the normal relationship between those factors and exports was 
disturbed by Government intervention for the purpose of forcing exports, which 
resulted in high internal prices for wheat, low internal consumption, and high 
corn consumption. 

1/^ Based on report of Assistant Agricultural Commissioner J. Bernard Gibbs, 
Belgrade, Yugoslavia, July 22, 1932. 



VflI-76 



29- 



For the year 1932-33 the relationship between wheat and corn production 
and whf^at exports will be disturbed by: (1) Government intervention, but not 
to the extent which prevailed during 1931-32; (2) late 1932 crop and lew carry- 
over; (3) poor quality, which will make it difficult to sell in competition with 
over-seas and Russian wheat; (4) relatively large production in importing coun- 
tries that normally use Danube wheat; and (5) low purchasing power of internal 
consumers which will result in the substitution of corn and rye in the diet in 
place of wheat. 

Developments at present indicate that Goverrjnents of the Danube Basin 
will not attempt to force exports to the exigent that they did in 1931-32. It 
is believed that the Governments of Rumania and Yugoslavia will not undertake 
measures that Will greatly influence the wheat trade, whereas in Bulgaria and 
Hungary Government action will Ire confined to increasing the price to the 
farmer; in Bulgaria by stabilization purchases, and in Hungary by the grain- 
ticket system. The increase of prices in Bulgaria, and Hungary will result in 
decreased home consumption, thereby releasing more wheat for export. But in 
neither case does the Government propose to force exports by the payment of 
export premiums or other direct methods. 

The late harvest of the 1932 crop has reduced the quantity of carry-over 
wneat, arid shortened the export year to 11 mionths. 

The poor quality of a large part of the 1932 crop will make it difficult 
for Danube Basin countries to compete on foreign markets with high grade wheat 
from Russia and over-seas. On the other hand, the large supply of low grade 
wheat might result in the exportation of important quantities of low grade 
wheat for 'feeding purposes. 

Danube Basin I.Iark ets and Prices 

Markets 

The unfavorable outlook for the 1932 crop in all Danube Basin countries 
has resulted in the removal from market of practically all wheat produced in 
1931. The 1932 crop has been slow in moving and total deliveries to market 
during July were low. 

In Bulgaria offers from farraers remained considerably ' under normal 
July offers. This curtailment was principally due to the late harvest. Or 
the other hand, the Government bureau which was anxious to liquidate its stocks 
before July 21, the date when monopoly will be discontinued, sold relatively 
important qua^itities during the first half of July. 

In Hungary demands for old wheat were very active during the month in 
review, but warehouse stocks were already depleted. Therefore, transactions 
in old wheat were limited to relatively small parcels. After it became known 
that the quality of the 1932 crop would be low, farmers were not inclined to 
sell their stocks of old wheat, and mills had difficulties in completing their 
stocks of old wheat for use in mixing with the new crop. I,lills have purchased 
all offers of new v/heat. Future transactions have been very active, and im- 
portant quantities of new wheat have been contracted for October and March 
deliveries . 



Rumanian v/heat markets were also influenced by the poor outlook for the 
crop. Stocks of old wheat are practically exhausted, and new deliveries 



-sc- 



are small and of unsatisfactory quality. Grain dealers delayed purchases until 
wheat of good quality can be obtained from sections where rust and heat have 
been of less importance. 



Table 19.-i^eat: Registered arrivals at . braila port and 
sales to exporters, semi-monthly, April to July, 1932 



Two v;eeks period ended 



Registered arrivals 



1932 
Apr. 

!.:ay 

• June 



Ju ly 
ComDil 



15 
30 
15 
31 
15 
30 
15 



Bushels 

21,700 
17,300 
40,400 
1,100 

0 
0 

0 



Registered sales 
Bushels 

176,700 
186,300 

50,300 

26,800 
126,800 

29,400 
9,200 



ed as follows: 

Arrivals from daily official bulletins of the Braila Grain Exchange. 
Sales from :"Danube Market and Shipping Report", daily publication 
issued in Galatz. 



In Yugoslavia, . of fers from farmers have been very small. They are hold- 
ing old wheat for seeding, as wheat from this year's crop is unsuitable for seed, 
Offers of now wheat have been insignificant. 

Mills have been anxious to complete their stocks of old wheat, and have 
created a very active demand for wheat from the 1931 crop. 



Prices 



V/ith the exception of Bulgaria, prices on Danube Basin markets during the 
past month v;ere influenced by the poor outlook for the 1932 crop within the Basin, 
forecasts for satisfactory crops in most countries that import Danube Basin v/heat, 
and the reappearance of cheap Russian wheat. 

In Bulgaria prices decreased during June 15 to July 15 as a result of the 
Government bureau's endeavor to liquidate its stocks at any price before July 21, 
the date when it is expected that the monopoly will be discontinued. 

Prices on Hungarian markets improved considerably after the beginning of 
July, as a result of reported rust and heat damages, small deliveries from far- 
mers, and urgent demands on the part of mills for wheat from the 1931 crop. 

In Rumania prices on. the export market of Braila did not change materially 
from the middle of June to the middle of July, whereas prices at internal markets 
increased well above the Braila parity level. 

V/heat prices in. Yugoslavia -were very materially increased between July 4 
and July 15. The increase was due to the exceptionally poor outlook for the 1932 
crop, com.bir.ed with a large demand from mills for wheat from the 1951 crop. 



V/H-76 



-31- 



Table 20. -United Stc.tes: Eicports-of v.'her~.% and wheat including flour, 

by weeks, 1931-32 and 1932-33 



Date 



July 4- 

June 30 
Wc-jk ended 
July 2 . 
9 . 
16 . 
23 . 
50 . 

Aug. 6 . 



Wheat' 



1931-52 



1,000 
bushels 

1/97,479 

1,998 
2,163 
•1,998 
2,553 
4,790 

1,926 



1952-33 



1,000 
bushels 



V 1,798 
~ 270 

777 
: 321 

594 

781 



W'heat flour 



19 31-5 2- 



1,000 • 
barrels 

1/ 8,198 

72 
154 
161 
218 
126 

146 



1932-33 



1,000 
barrels 



75 
24 
58 
43 
81 



25 



V/Tieat including flour 



1931-32 



1,000 

b ushels 

1/136,010 

2,356 
2,887 
. 2,755 
. 3,578 
.5,382 

. 2,612 



1932-35 



1,000 
bushels 



2/ 2,141 
383 
1,050 
523 
975 

899 



Compiled from weekly report of Department • of Commerce . 
!_/ Includes two days of July; week ended July 2. 

2/ Includes four days of June; week ended' July 2. Will be adjusted later. 



Table 21.-Y«heat including flour: Shipments from principal exporting regions, 

specified dates, 1931-32 and 1932-33 



AT-^entina 



1931-32 



1,000 
V us he Is 

1/144,572 



2,984 
1,1492 
1,6 34 
2,044 
1,216 



1 ,;240 



1932-35 



1,000 
bushels 



2/1,052 
1,980 
476 

502 
498 

459 



Australia 



1931-32 : 1932-33 
:. 1,000 
;bushels 



1,000 
bushels 

1/161,404:- 



5,988:2/2,128 
4,048:; 1,896 
2,296:: 2,588 
5,072:: 1,654 
2,576:-: 1,^^24 

2,148:; 2,524 



Danub e 



1951-32 



1,000 - 
bushels 

■1/ 39,280 



48 
43-2 
26:4 
•0 

0 

0 



1932-55 



1,000 
bushels 



Zj 240 
16. 
104 



Compiled from, official and trade sources, 

1/ Includes two days of July; week ended July 2. 

2/ Includes four days of June; week ended July 2, 



North America 



193_l-5_2 

r,oo'o""'" 

bushels 
1/335,658 



6,240 
.5,640 
5,096 
5,756 
4,556 



7,888 



1952-55 



1,000 
bushels 



2/4,928 
5,888 
4,576 
6,140 
6,515 

4,709 



Viill be adjusted later, 



lE-75 -32- 

Ta'blc 22.-UnitGd States: Imports and exports of v;hcat including 

"flour, 1930-31 and 1931-32 



■ ■ Item . . 


..-July 1, 1930 to . 
. June 30, 1931 , ; 
.(revised) 


July 1, 1931 to 
June 30, 1932 
(jrevised) 


Exports: 

Flour in terms of v^hoat.. 
Total ; 

Imports: 

'wneat 

Flour in. terms of wheat.. 
Total 

Net ejrports: 

Flour in terms of wheat., . 
Total 


. 1,000 "bushals 

76,355 
55.110 


■1,000 ljushels 

96,519 
39,276 


1 oL , 'i r o 




19,054 
5 


! ■ 12,885: ' 
1 


19,059 


12 ,080 


57,311 

55,10"5 


83,634 ■ 
39,275 


112,416 : 


122,909 



Compiled from official sources. 



Tahle 25.-',7heat, including flour: Net imports into European countries, 
years 1929-30, 1930-31 and July 1 to latest date 1931-^32 



Country 


.1929-30 


: 1930-31 


: Prelim. 

."estimate 


■; Net 


imports 


reported 












: 1931-32 


: July 1 to 


:19 


30-31 


:19 


31-32 




: Mil lion 


:Million 


: Million 






:Million 


;lIillion 




• "bushel s 


: "bushels 


:".. "bushels 






rhushels 


: "bushels 




: 202 




221 


: 220^230 


: June 


30 




221 




245 




: 43 




84 


: 29-37 


: June 


30 




83 




33 




: 43 




45 


; 42-26 


: May 


31 




40 




42 




: 20 
: 30 
: 61 




45 
35 
30 


: 73-77 
: 29-33 
; 18-24 


: May 
; June 
: June 


31 
30 
30 




37 . 

35 

30 




70 
31 

22 




: 22 




24 


: 23-26 


: ■ Apr, 


30 




19 




20 




! 18 




19 . 




; May 


31 




18 




18 




; 17 




18 . 


20-22 


; June 


30 




18 J 




21 




18 ! 




15 J 


15-17 . 


June 


30 




15 . 




15 




12 




15 ; 


22-24 


; June 


30 . 




13 : 




24 




8 




11 , 


. 17-18 


June 


30 




11 ; 




17 




7 




8 ; 


8-9 


! June 


30 ; 




8 ; 




9 




6 , 

7 : 




5 . 
5 : 


4r-5 

(^7 : 


. June 
June 


30 : 
30 : 




5 : 
5 : 




4 
7 


Poland ; 


1/2/ : 
6 : 


2/ 


-4 : 
3 : 


2- 3 : 

3- 5 : 


June 
May 


30 : 

31 : 


2/ 


-4 : 
2 : 


2/ 


-5 




3 : 




2 : 


1-1 : 


Apr, 


30 : 




2 : 




1 




1 : 

5 : 




1-1 

4-7 : 


Apr. 
Apr. 


30 : 
30 : 


U 


1 : 

2/ : 


Ij 2J 


Total : 


529 : 


582 : 






559 : 


578 



Compiled from official sources.. 1/ Less than 500, ''CO bushels. 2/ Net export. 



m-76 



-33- 



ruble24rV/heut, including flour: Movenent from principcil exporting countries, 

specified periods 



Country 



United States 
Canada . . . 
Argentina 
Australia 
Russia . . . 
Hungary . . 
Yugoslavia 
Ruraania . . 
Bulgaria , 
British India (L&S 
Total 



North America 2/ 
Canada, 4 markets 3/ , 

United States , 

Argentina 

Australia , 

Russia 4/ 

Danube & Bulgaria 4/ 

British India 

Total G/ 

Total European ship- 
ments 2/ 

Total ex-European 
shipments 2/ 



Exports as given by official sources 



Total. 



July "l • to' date shown 



1928-29 : 1929-30 : 1930-31 : 1929-30: 1930-31 : 1931-32 : 



Date 



1,000;' "•:1, '000 _.: 1,000 .:1,000 :1,000 :1,000 : 
bushels : bushels : bushels : bushels : bushels : bushels ; 



163,6,87 
422, 732 
217,139 
107,785 

23,6,58 
7,908 
1,582 
760 

5, 716: 



; 153,316:131 
: 184, 213: 26 7 
; 161, 265:120 
; 61,776:143 
; 7,380:110 
: 31,415: 18 
; 22,952: 4 

2,560: 14 
96:5 

6,798: 10 



,537:153, 
,365:184, 
,589:161, 
,295: 45, 
, 909 : 
,425: 15, 
,93Q: 20, 
,792: 
,041: 
.IQV: 4, 



316:131, 
213:.267, 
265:120, 
766:. 90, 
-: 89, 
' 8, 
5, 
11, 
■ 2, 
S, 



178: 
691: 
887; 

72:' 
566: 



537 
365 
589' 
214' 
322 
191 
174 
880 
117 
426 



: 135, 795: 
: 199 ,'507: 
: 145,048: 
: 114,274: 
: '69,965: 
; 11,565: 
; 12,894: 
: 34,461: 
9,898: 
: 1/2, 775: 



June 30 
June 30 
June 30 
Mar. 31 
Jan. 31 
Apr. 30 
Mar. 31 
Feb. 29 
Mar. 31 
May 31 



950,967:631,771:827,080:585,9; 4:735,815:736,182: 



Shipments as given by current trade sources 



Total 



'./eeks ending 



: July 1 to Aug. 6 



: 1930-31: 1931-32 
:{Rev.) :{Prel.) 


:July 23 


:July 30 


:Aug. 6 : 1931-32 


: 1932-33 


:1,000 :1,000 
: bushels : bushels 


:1,000 
: bushels 


: 1,000 
: bushels 


:1,000 :1,000 
: bushels: bushels 


:1,000 
: bushels 


: 354, 008: 333, 638 


: 6 , 140 


: 6,513 


: 4,709: 34,936 


: 27,826 


: 273,437:206, 258 
:134, 700:136,03 0 


: 5,650 
523 


: 7,267 
: 975- 


. 4,513: 30,913 
899: 20,067. 


: 19,036 
5,970 


: 121, 696: 144, 572: 
: 148, 500: 16 1,404 
: 92,784: 71,664: 
: 15,176: 39,280: 
: 5/6,032: 616: 


302 
1,634 
0 
88 
0 


498: 
: 1,624: 
0: 

: 0: 
0: 


459: 10,600 
2,324: 17,928. 
0: 4,528: 
0: 744: 
0: 544: 


3,715 
10,066 
0 

208 
0 


: 738,196:751,174: 


8,164, 


8,635: 


7,492: 69,280: 


41,815 


: 615,392:597, 976: 
:176, 360:194, 464: 


2,042: 
630: 


1 , 880 : 
808: 


1,230: 59,824: 
2,074: 16,120: 


20 , 544 
7,336 



1/ Sea Trade only. ~ 

2/ Broorahall's Corn Trade Ne^;s. 

3/ Fort V/illiom, Port xirthur, Vancouver and Prince Rupert. 

4/ Black Sea shipments only, 

5/ Net imports 1930-31 were 420,099 bushels. 

6/ Total of trade figures includes North ximerica as reported by Broomhall's, 



)/H-76 



-3^1- 



Table 25.-V/heat, including flour: Exports from -principal . exporting 
countries, May, June and July, 1931 and 1952 



Crop and "coun't-ry-: 



■May- 



June 



1931 



193g- 



1931 



1932 



July 



1931 



1932 1/2/ 



EXPORTS : , 

- V-HEaT INCL.'. ELOUR- 

■ United Stages . ..... ., 

-Canada 

•Argentina . . . . , 
'British India . 
•Australia , . , . . 
Russia 1/ 
•Danube Bulgaria 



■l-,0O0'-i-' l..,000' .; 
bushel's: bushels; 



1,000 ,. 
bushels 



1,000 
bushels 



1,000 
bushels 



i/: 



10,114 
31,687 
21,001 

,. ,302' 
16,028 
■,4,360 
760 



: 8,829 : 

: 17,621 : 

:■ 12, 248 : 

:3/' 160 : 
: 1/18, 760: 

: • 0 : 

: 1,312 : 



■12,007 
22,990 
16,658 
77-1 
■16,789 
■ 1,008 
1,120 



8,:086. . 
. 18,42.6 . 
8, -919 

1/ . .Q. 

1/12,616 
: . .0. 
. .984 



17,454 
,7, 738* 



447 
,i2,"376 

744 



1,000 
bushels 

2,931 
21,629 
3,041 
0 

7,742 

^ 0 
208 



Total ; -84,252 : 58,920 ..:■ 71,543 



49:, 031. :. 54,315 



35,551 



Compiled from official, and trade sources. 1/ Prelimin.-.ry . 2/ Two days of 
July i-Ticluded In June '.flgure-s; -these .fdgures;. for July 5-30. 3/ Sea trade only. 



WH_76 COKTMTS ^^^'^ 

1-3 

1 - S-oiTimary 3_o 

2 - Crop Prospects ^ _ g 

3 - Viliee.t Prices _^ - H 

4 - The Wheat Carry-over in the United Sto,tes ^ 

5 - 'iVorld Wheat Carry-over _ 15 

6 - World Disappearance of Wheat _ 19 

7 - Dunn-a Yfheat Prospects * . ' * * pp, _ ?2 

8 - The Continental European 'i?heat Market Situation During July . . 

9 - Estimates Vtoeat Deficit I>aring 1932-33 for 19 continental ^ ^ 

European Countries _ 28 

10 - i-iarket Section P8 _ 29 

11 - Danuhe Basin Wheat Situation During July ^„ _ 

12 - Danuhe Basin Markets and Prices 



TABLES 



5 - 
o - 

7 - 

8 - 

9 - 

10 - 

11 - 

12 - 

13 - 

14 - 

15 - 
15 - 

17 - 

18 - 

19 - 

20 - 

21 - 

22 - 

23 - 

24 - 

25 - 



'.Tiieat: Production in specified countries 1928-29 to 1932-33 
'."Aieat: V^eighted average cash prices at stated markets . 
.iheat: Closing price of September futures 
'Jneat: Average price per bushel of parcels of specified 

description, c.i.f, at Liverpool 

ilheat: Price per bushel at specified markets . • • _ • 
Prelim.ino.ry estimate of carry-over of domestic wheat m tne 

United States in all positions, reported as of July 1 
'J^orld wheat carry-over, July 1, 1930-1932 .a%._r,^ 
viheat: World suuplyprice and disappearnnce, 1921-^2 to iy>3i 
Jheat, including flour: Supply, distributional disappearance 

in continental United States, 1927-28 to 1932-33 
S-apply and distribution of duinajn wheat in the United ^States . . 

ErcJice: Durum wheat, imports by countries, July - ^--ay^ 

Italy: Imports of durum wheo.t by countries, July-April .... 
Price per bushel of domestic wheat at specified markets . ' ' J ^ 
Continental European stocks of wheat, the middle of June and oi-o ^ 

middle of July, 1931 and 1932 / ' -^L 

Yfheat and wheat flour shipments to the Continent, stated perioas 
Wheat and wheat flour shipments to Europe, stated periods . . . 

Germany: Price per bushel of dom.estic wheat and rye 

Germany: Stocks of grain and grain flour in mills & warehouses 
VJheat: Registered arrivals .-t Braila port aiid sales to exporters 
United States: Exports of wheat and wheat including ilour . . 
vJneat including flour: Shipments from principal exporting 

roginns, specified dates, 1931-32 and 1932-33 
United States: Imports and exports of wheat including tlour . 
VAieat, including flour: Ket imports into European ^o^^^ries, 

yecrs 1929-30, 1930-31 and July 1 to latest date 1931-^-^ • • 
Wheat, incl^iding flour: Movement from principal exporting 

countries, specified periods . . • • 

wheat, including flour: Exports from principal exporting 

co^antries, May, June and July, 1931 and 1932 



9 
9 

11 
12 
14 

15 

18 
19 
19 
21 

21 
22 

25 
. 26 
30 
31 

31 
32 



33 

34 



UIJITED ST..TE3 DS?;jlTlILj.^T OF iLGHICUL'rURii 
Biireau of At^ricultural Economics 
'Washington 



L 1 E 

R ECU 



V7H-77 



SepteiTiber 24, 1932 



V/0RLi3 uQ-IEaT FR0SP2GTS 



Supplies of wheat available to the world outside oi Russia and China in 
1932-33 are likely to "be less than last season according to the Bureau of 
Agricaltijjral Economics. V.Tieat crops and carry-over of t^xe world outside Russia 
and China appear to 'oe ahout the sane rs for last year, hut Russia is expected 
to supply the outside './orld with less v/heat this season. Both Russia and China 
are harvesting smaller crops this year than l.-st. 

Present estimates for 34 Forthern Hemisphere covuitrios, v/hich include 
practically all of the Northern Kemispnere crop outside Russia end China, total 
19,000,000 hushels in excess of last yer.r. In the Southern Hemisphere the 
Australian crop appears J.iholy to "bo slightly larger than that of last year, and 
while Argentine production i.j still xmcertain, average yields on the area sown 
this year would result in a crop of a'bout 15,000,00u hushels smaller than was 
produced in 1931-32. Thus, present esLi .utes point to a total v/orld crop out- 
side Russia and China of about lb, 000, 000 to 20,000,000 "bushels larger than last 
year, '.fnile the world carry-over in positions for v;hich accurate sto.cks data 
are availahle v/as 13,000,000 Irrger on July 1, t'lis yerx, than a year earlier, 
stocks on the Continent of E^J.rope, especiall;^ in the c.so of the lower Danu"be 
Basin, are reported to "be smaller. This redviction in continental Eu.ropean 
stocks will proba"bly more than co-unterbalance the 30,000,000 buslael incrcaso 
indicated in the crop plus the recorded figures of stocks. Reports from Russia 
continue to indicate that exports from that country cxe likely tc bo, smaller 
this ;,e;..r compared with the 72,000,000 bushels \7i1ich v/ore shipped from Russia 
to the rest of the v/orld last yer-j*. 



im-77 -2- 

Apparentlj the upward trend in v/orld prices, which took place from early 
Jul;^- to early Septemhor, was the result partly of the lach of a heav„ movement 
of Y/heat from the exportin.3 countries. In particular, the strengthening of the 
early helief that Russia would not export any considerahlo amount of wheat d\u:ing 
the remainder of 1932 appears to have been an iraportant fo.ctor on the supply side. 
The generally improving finaaicial and "bixsiness outloolc was prohcJbly of greater 
importance, however, The period from July 10 to August 7 was one of rising 
stochs prices as well as of rising wheat and other comnodity prices. 

One of the significrvnt features cf the price movements of the past tv;o 
months v/i,s the decline of' domestic v/heat prices in the highly protected markets 
of continental Europe. In the principal markets of these countries there were 
sharp declines during July and early August as the new crops moved to m.ai'ket. 
nevertheless, the prices at the principal continental markets remained m.ore than 
twice as high as the prices at Liverpool. The sharp hrea". of French wheat 
prices from a level of around 180 cents p&r bushel in early July to 122 cents per 
bushel on August 12 is reported to have caused dissatisfaction and complaint 
among the French farmers and resvJted in the bringing of .:;r9at pressure 
on the Government to institute relief measures. Follov/in;.-; the declines of 
late July and early Aug-ast, however, prices of domestic v/heat on continental 
markets showed some improvement. At Paris prices rose fror;. 122 cents per bushel 
on August 10 to 128 cents on September 7: at Berlin, from 1"^'! cents per bushel 
on August 7 to 136 cents on September 7; and at Llilcji, from 135 cents on August 3 
to 149 cents on September 7. • 

The spread between Liverpool and Chicago futures v/idencd to a more nearly 
normal differential. On September 14, at closing prices, the spread between 
Chicago September and Liverpool October futures v;as S-l/4 cents per bushel, 
while Kansas City was 14-l/2 cents below Liverpool. Under present conditions 



\7H~77 -3- 

such sprocds soern a'bout sufficient to develop free export movement of v/heat 
from the United Stc.tes. The spread "betv/oen December futures at Chicago and 
Liverpool has? been much smaller, hov/ever, 5-l/2 cents per bushel (September 14) 
being the largest spread recorded (on the basis of closing prices) during the 
period September 1 to September 20. The maintenance of spreads sufficient for 
a free export movement over vxiy considerable period of tine v/ould result in a 
reduction of United States carry-over into next year. ¥ith a crop of only 
715,000,000 bushels and the prospect of a total domestic consumption of about 
650,000,000 bushels dur-ing 1932-33 it \70uld be necessary to export only about 
55,000,000 bushels to prevent the carr^-ovcr from increasing. This is less 
than half the amount of the smallest export recorded ...uring an;,' of the past 
20 crop years. 

Crop prospects in the Southern Hemisphere remain uncertain. For both 
Argentina and Australia somev/hat larger acreages have been planted than last 
year when adverse weather conditions hranpered sov.'ings , ■ Estimates of acreage, 
together v/ith early weather indications in Australia, suggest that tlie 1952-33 
harvest may be about 200,000,000 bushels which will not be greatly different 
from the production of the last harvest. la Argentina even less definite 
indications are to be had, as weather conditions during September and October 
are especially important in determining \;heat yields. Average yields on the 
area sown this year would result in a harvest of 210,000,000 bushels compered 
with 226,000,000 estiir.ated as produced in 1931-32. 

Crop Prospects 

Estimates and forecasts of t]-:e 1932 v;heat production in 34 couritries \;hich 
last year produced about 94 per cent of the northern Hemisphere wheat crop outside 
of Russia and China total 3,118,760,000 bushels as compared with 3,101,452,000 
bushels a year ago. ' • ■ 

The first official estimate of the v;heat crop in Canada is 467,150,000 
bushels as compared with 304,144,000 bushels in 1931. Our June estimate based 
upon weather conditions was 475,000,000 bushels. The yield per acre this year 
is estimated at 17.2 bushels com.prred with only 11.5 bushels realized last season. 
Rains late in August interfered with harvesting. 



MI- 7 7 



.-4_ 



Tatle 1.- Mieat; Production in specified co-untries, 1928-29 

to 1932-33 



Country ; 1928-29 * 1929-30 ' 1930-31 * 1931-32 ' 1932-33, 

„ • '\ • ^ Lj?Jie.l«. 

: ■ lyOod : l,Oo'o" , 1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000 
: bushels : bushels : bushels : bushels : bushels 



United States : 925,150: 812,573 : 858,160: 894,204: 714,538 

Canada : 5G6,725: 304,520 : 420,572: 304,144: 467,150 

Mexico : 11,0312_ J-J-yJ^^ J y^'^Al- ^h^^H _ 8»„S21 

Total (3) . . . .:JlV5"0'37887:l7l28",426" : 1 , 2"9 0 , 2 7 8 ;~ 1 , 2 14 , 5 74 ;" ' 1 , 190', 6"09 
EUROPE : "": " :" ':~ T' ■ ' 

England and ¥ales .'. . : 47,264: 47,451-: 39,960: 35,887: 41,440 

Norway : 798: 750 : 720:- 592: l/ 800 

Sweden . . .: 18,331: 19,011 : .20,819: 18,047: 25,831 

Denmark . : 12,214: 11,772 : 10,216: 10,053: l/ 10,800 

Netherlands ....-..: 7,336: 5,467 : 6,055: 6,761: 13,760 

Belgium : 17,215: 13,225 : 13,236: 13,817: 14,697 

France . ■ 281,285: 337,252 : 228,105: 264,111: 331,351 

Spain : 122,540: 154,245 : 145,700: 134,427: 161,449 

Portugal : 7,546: 10,636 : 13,816: 12,999: 18,151 

I'ta-ly : 228,598: 260,125 : 210,071: 245,594: 265,912 

Switzerland ......: 4,474: 4,372 : 3,601: 4,361: 4,182 

Germany : 141,593: 123,062 : 139,217: 155,545: 186,252 

Austria : 12,917: 11,559 : 12,008: 9,384: l/ 12,500 

Czechoslovakia : 52,861: 52,902 : 50,606: 41,232: 53,535 

Hungary : - 99,211: 74,985 : 84,339: 72,550: 58,569 

Yugoslavia : 103,294: 94,999 : ■■ 80,325: 98,789: 64,815 

Greece : 13,085: 11,434 : 9,709: 12,205: 18,372 

Malta . : 289: 293 : 303: 277: 301 

Bulgaria : 49,153- 33,195 : 57,317: 61,195: 53,891 

Rumania : 115,544: 99,753 : 130,771: 135,300: 73,487 

Poland : 59,219: - 65,862 : 82,321: 83,220: 55,887 

Lithuania : 6,327: 9,329 : 11,327: 8,340: l/ 8,400 

Latvia : -2,499: 2,356 : 4,062: 3,388: 5,071 

Estonia : 1,037: 1,260 : 1,635: 1,736: l/ 2,200 

Finland ' :__ '^9_8_: _754 : _ 1,210 ; 1,16 1: _\i}^J- _ 

Total (25) ... : l", 405', 728 ;'l ,4 46 , 039~ ": ' T,~5"5"0 , 450 : 1 , 43~0 , 9 7'2 ; 1 ,"48 2 , 894 
NORTH AFRICA :'" : ' " : : - - - 

Morocco : 24,749: 31,764 : 21,302: 29,684: 21,973 

Al.geria . . , : 30,339: 33,307 : 32,442: 25,649: 29,982 

Tunis 13,70_5:_ 12,309 : 10,398; 15,933 : 2/ 15,509 

Total (3) . . . .: ^" e8,Jt^:' _ "^"[^SeO j ^ " G'^, 142:''_ ~^> t^^'' 
ASIA : : : : ' " " ':" 

India : 290,864: 320,731 : 390,843: 347,387: 336,971 

Japan : 50,812: 30,496 : 29,537: 30,692: 32,518 

Chosen : '^^'9. L „^'^?^' 8,341: ^ 8l?^04_ 

Total (3). . . . ' "3"30,"27r:" 359 ,"54~7 ":'" "T 29V36 5; 3~8"6V6"20": 37"7, 7"9"3 
Total, 34 countries :'"3V5"08, 679:5, 0lT,~592 : 3,14 2,255; 3, 101,462; 3,1 16,760 
Estimated Northern : : : : : 

Hemis.excl. Russia & China 3,431,000:3,194,000 : 3,311,000: 3,291,000; 
.Compiled"" from off ici'iT'iources except as otherwise noted. _L/Esti;.iated' in the 

Berlin office of the Bureau of ^agricultural Economics. 2/Esti •:ated in the 
Marseille office of the Bureau of Agricultxiral Economic'S". 



-5- 



Estimates and forecasts of the v;he6.t production in 25 European CD"untries 
total 1,482,894,000 "bushels corapared with 1,430,972,000 bushels in the same 
countries last ^ear. The Berlin office of the Bureau helieves that the final 
estimates for German^s Italy and Czechoslovalcia will "be lower than the present 
estimates which have "been included in the aoove totals. Weather conditions during 
kvLgv.s± were unusually favorable for rapid progress in harvesting and threshing. 
The quality of the crop is expected to be generally good in the western half of 
the Continent but in Czechoslovakia, Poland and the Baltic States, the crop has 
suffered material deterioration. Black stem rust has spread over wide ar-eas of 
eastern Czechoslovakia and southern and central Poland and it now appears that 
this year's rust infestation in eastern Europe is, in extent and degree, the most 
serious in years. The deterioration in the Baltic States has resulted from 
excessive rainfall, llearlj^ all the countries of southern and \/estcrn Europe 
have reported larger crops than last ^ ear and in several coimtries, ite,, 
German^'-, Italy and Sv/eden, record harvests. Crops in eastern Europe aro somev/hat 
below last year except in Czechoslovalcia. Harvesting was practically completed 
throughout the Danube Basin by the middle of August and most of the wheat v/as 
readj/- for delivery to market by the first of September. The o^uallty of this 
year's crop in the Danube is generally lov/ and the total outturn is only about 
two-thirds of the 1931 harvest. 

The 1932 rye crop in 17 European countries is reported at 853,903,000 
bushels compared with 709,247,000 bushels. Germany reports a production of 
330,021,000 bushels compared \/ith 262,977,000 bushels and Poland 252,387,000 
compared with 224,500,000 bushels in 1931. The Italian corn crop v/hich has an 
important bearing on the requirements for foreign grain in tliat country is also 
cxiDoctod to exceed last year. 

Fo important changes have been reported in the North African or ^.siatic 
crops during the past month. 

Southern Hemisp here 

Earl5" weather conditions in the Australian v/heat zones have been general ly 
favorable and indicate yields somewhat above average and possibly better than 
those of 1931-32. It now seems probable that the 1932-33 harvest will reach 
180,000,000 to 210,000,000 bushels compared with 190, 000, 000 now reported for last 
year. The Secretary of the './cstern Australia Wheat Pool forecasts '1932'-33 
production at 183,000,000 bushels. Last year in llovemb'er he estimated the crop 
at 171,000,000 bushels. On the low acreage estimate, current at that time, the 
Socretar3'''s production indicated a yield of 12,5 bushels to the acre, compared 
wioh latest official reports of 13.0 bushels. On the basis of past associations 
of rainfall with v/heat yields, rainfall records through August suggest a probable 
1Sj2-33 yield of between 13,5 and 14,5 bushels to the acre which, on the 
15,500,000 acres reported by the International Instit\ite of Agriculture in April 
would give a harvest of 210,000,000 to 225,000,000 bushels. Rainfall in 
September, October arji November arc importcjit, hov;ever, so the indications based 
on rainfall are subject to considerable revision. Last year v/eather indications, 
based on the period April through llovembor, pointed to a i,ield for all Australia 
of 13 bushels, the same as the latest olficial reports, but indications earlier 
in the season had been higher, .13.5 to 14,5 bushels, A check on movement of the 
1931-32 crop in various States indicates that the 1951-32 crop may have been 
larger than the official ostimatus. 



-6- 



The appaarance of the growing crop is reported t.y i^gricultural Coinmissioner 
Paxton to "be good in Victoria Euid western Australia, excellent in south Australia 
and in the southern half of the lev; South \;ales wheat zone, shading off to poor 
in the northern psxt of that State'. ' . ,. , . 

The Kinister for Coirmerce announced recently" that the- Commonv/ealth 
Government had decided to postpone any consideration; of a "bounty- for 1932-33 
wheat production, according to I.Ir. Paxton. They will v/ait to see the price 
position after the final outcome, of the Northern Hemisphere crop is determined. 
The Government, is, considering alternatives for' the outi'ight ho-anty as p?. id for 
the 1931-32 crop. One is a tax on flour for local' consumpt ion, srJficiont to 
meet , a ."bounty^ on wheat . equivalent to that paid in 1931-32. The, other is to ^ peg 
the exchange- to, a considerahly higher rate (a higher value oi other currencies 
in terms of Australian, or in other v/ords a lower value of Australian currency) 
than has prevailed, the pas;t year. Recent annual conferences of v/heat grov/ers 
and wool , growers ' have passed resolutions requesting the higher exchange rate as 
"being most satisfactory to them.. The Commonv/ealth Banlc Board has opposed such 
a procedure, hut the Sank, of Hew South V/ales and some of the' trading banks seem 
to favor it. Bounties paid for the 1931-32 crop xvg to August 7 reached 
h 3,355,236, equivalent to. $9, 590, 000 at average exchange for the period, v/hich 
at 4-1/2 ponce per hushel accounted for 178,000,000 Dushcls sold. 

The Victorian Cchinet recently earmarked h 10,000, equivalent to ahout ^ 
;^,28,000 at current exchange, as part pa;:Tnent for farm laoor.' The scheme provides 
for c subsidy of 10 shillings per man per week for .an^- farm labor employed 
on farms for permanent improvements, provided such labor does not replace any 
permanent employee or engage in farm work of a general character. Recent 
remarks made by the Hew South Wales Minister for Agriculture indicate that a 
similar plan is in prospect in that State. 

"in Argentina the at-ea sown to v/heat is estimated to be 19,249,000 acres, 
an increase of over 11 per cent above the 1931-32 so\m acreage of 17,295,000 
acres. Rainfall conditions the early part of this season apperx to have been 
better than a year ago but warm weathef . in . July and early i^ugust is reported to 
have caused undue grov/th of. the wheat stalks at the expense of the roots and 
favored the growth of Weeds. Colder weather, the latter p.art of August checked 
the development somewhat. Locusts^ ..are also reported 'to" be more prevalent this 
jQZT thon usual, \7eather conditions, in September arid O'ctpber are especially 
important to the wheat crop. A yield equal to thc_ average for the past 26- 
years, 10.9 bushels, on this year's sown acreage would give a harvest of 
210,000,000 bushels compared with 225,924,000 bu'shels in 1931-32. 

'vVlieat Pri ces 

Both cash and future prices at the principal ^•;orld markets advanced 
from the low point reached on August 2 to the high for the month which occurred 
on August 10..' During the middle of the month prices declined but rgcin advanced 
during the last week so that the prices at the clo'sc o'f August v/erc only a 
few cents, below the peak for the morith. During the second v;cek o- September^ 
prices again declined. The advance in Liverpool prices was more consistent than 
the Chicago advance. United Stat^-s markets were characterised by relatively 
shoxp advances .v;hich could not be maintained, thus causing them to be more 
erratic than the. prices at Liverpool. 



m-77 



-7- 



Docomber luturos at Caicc.^'^o closed r.t 52-l/4 - s/o or. August 2 uhich 
v;r.s almost c.s low r.s the record low of July 18. A rolativelir rapid advance 
"brought December futures to 59-5/8 at Chicago on Auf'ust 10. A month later on 
September 12, December futures closed at Chicago at 54-5/8. December lutures 
at' Liverpool v;ere quoted at 55-5/8 on August 10; a month later on September 12, 
December futures at Liverpool were 58-7/8. The net advance at Liverpool 
from August 2 to September 12 was 3-l/4 cents compared with a 2-cent advance 
at Chicago. 

Cash prices at United States markets followed a course similar to that 
of futures except that cash prices were somewhat less erratic. Fo.2 Hard 
V/inter at Kansas City averaged 45.2 cents per bushel on August 3; a month later 
on Se-otem.ber 3 the v/eighted average price was 49.5 cents, a net advance of 
4.3 cents per bushel. The advance in No. 1 Dark Northern Spring at I.Iinneapolis 
during the same period was 5.2 and for No. 2 Red \;inter at St. Louis 6.2 cents 
per bushel. No. 2 Ai-nber Darum at Minneapolis registered a net gain of only 1.2 
cents per bushel during this period. 

No. 3 lianitoba Northern at V/innipeg declined in price during the last 
three weeks of August. Subsecuent advances during the early part of September 
regained the loss sustained during August. Near lutures at Buenos Aires 
followed a similar course. At Liverpool No. 3 Manitoba Northern averaged 
59 cento per bushel for the week ended August 12, but declined to 57 cents 
for the v;eek ended August 26. Rosafe at Liverpool during the same period 
declined from 58 to 57 cents per bushel, the course of prices in some of 
the European deficit countries differed some-./hat from that In Liverpool. 
Prices of domestic wheat at Berlin declined rapidly during the first three 
weeks of August because of the large domestic crop. Slight advances were 
recorded during the latter part of the month beccuse of the slow farm marketings. 
At Paris domestic v/heat declined from an average- of 152 cents for the v;eok 
ended August 5 to an average of 122 cents for the \.Gek ended Aug-ast 12. 
Subsecuent advances brought the prices to 128 cents for the v/eek ended 
Soptcrdbcr 9. The decline in prices at Paris arc the result of a largo new crop 
of high quality wheat moving to market in volvjne. 



\m-77 



-8- 



Ta"ble 2.- V/heat: Frico per 'oushel at spscifiel marliets, 

July 1 '1932' - SeptemlDer 9, 1932 



. 

li'oek 
ended 




Kans as 
;City 
: 1/ 


: Mi nne- 
! apolis 
2/ 

; Cents 


1 V/inni— 

"00°' 

_3/ 


I Bue no s 
; Aires 


Liver— 

, pool 
: 5/ 


; '^roat 
:Br itain' 
: 6/ 




Bor lin 


- .■ — 

Paris < 

1 


— • - — — — 

Mi 1 at 
_/ 




; Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


, Cents 


; Cents . 


Cents 


, Centos 


Cents 


July 1 


42.8 


. 61,9 


. 41 . 5 


. 45.4 , 


; 53.1 


i 61.8 


: 162 


: 179 


I — 


8 


44.9 


. 65,2 


42.4 


, 45.3 • 


52.3 


: 62.1 


152 


. 181 


. 147 


15 


44.9 


61.5 


41.8 


: 45.1 


. 52.3. 


; 61.0 : 


152 


, 180 


136 


22 


44. 3 


57. C . 


42.5 


; 45,2 


53.0.^ 


: 61.9 


156 


; 1/7 


; 1^6 


29 


46.4 ! 


58 . 3 ; 


• 46.0 


: 47.2 


. 56 . 6 


: 60.5 




. 177 


139 


Aug . 5 


46.4 . 


•58.2 . 


45.5 


: 47.9. 


57.4 


: 5.1 . 6 


143 


: 152 


135 


12- : 


49.1 I 


60.7 


47.5 . 


49.0 


. 57.1 


: 61.3 


138 


. 122 


139 


19 : 


47.2 : 


58,9 . 


45.0 


48.5 


58.5 


. 61.3 


131 


128 


; 139 


26 : 


47.4 : 


58.1 ; 


43.7 


47.9 


. 55.7 


! 57.2 


' 133 : 


133 


143 


Sept. 2 : 


49.2 i 


61.1 


. 45.6 


47.8 






. 154 


127 


147 


9 : 


49.1 : 


60.9 : 


46.0 . 


49.2 






156 • 


126 


149 



Prices are "aver ages'' oT~daiTy p'rTcVs'To'r'lvVeks" except as follows: 

Great Britain prices of home-grown wheat are averages for the week ending 
Saturday, Berlin, Paris, and Milan prices are Wednesday quotations. Prices at 
Winnipeg, Buenos Aires, Liverpool, Berlin, Paris and Milan are converted to 
United Stat o s mo ne y at the current rates of exchange. 

_l/ Fo. 2 Hard V/inter. 
_2/ ITo. 1 Dark i\Torthern Spring. 
5/ ITo. 3 Manitoha ITorthern. 
_4/ ITear futures. 

5/ All sales of imported parcels. 
_6/ Home-grown wheat in England and V/ales. 
7/ Domestic . 



V/H-77 



-9- 



Tatle 3.- Wheat* Average price per "bushel of parcels of specified 
descriptions, c.i.f. at Liverpool, specified periods 

1931-1932 






1 No. 3 Manitoba Northern 


Rosa 


fe 


: 1931 


: 1932 


. 1 Q 1 






: Cents 


: Oents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


Jan 


. 71 

: 1 i 


. Co 


: 61 


: 52 


Pe b . .... 


• 7 O 


. o4 






T.Tar . ... 

i,'i.C-CX • .... 


1 71 


: DO 


. ox 


1^7 


A^or • .... 


• 7 P 




fid 






by 


: 52 


A 1^ 

• DO 


• oy 


June .... 


• C 7 


: DO 


Al 




Till V 

UU-i^ .... 


; DO 


: 54 


. R7 


• Pi/1 


Aug. .... 


', oU 








Week ended 










June 3 ... 


66 


: 61 


! 61 


: 60 


iu ... 


67 


65 


I 62 


: 56 


Li . . . , 


66 


: 55 


61 


: 53 


fc^t . . . : 


68 


53 i 


62 


52 


JUlJ'^ 1 . . . < 


67 


55 ! 


60 


54 


8 . . . : 




DO i 


58 ! 


53 


15 . . . : 


63 


52 ! 


56 


: 53 


22 . . . : 


64 ! 


5-3 : 


57 : 


54 


29 . . . : 


60 : 


57 . : 


57 


56 


Aug. 5 . . . : 


58 : 


57 ■ : 


54 : 


56 


12 . . . : 


60 : 


59 : 


55 : 


58 


19 . . . : 


61 : 


58 : 


56 : 


58 


26 . . . : 


61 : 


57 : 


55 : 


57 


Sept. 2 . . . : 


59 : 




55 : 




9 . . . : 


58 : 




54 : 





Compiled from .Broomhall » s Corn Trade News. 



WK-77 



-10- 



Tatle 4,- Yifheat: Closing price of Septeraber futures ij 



Via fh-^ 


Oh: 


-Cago 


Kansas City' 


Minneapolis 


Viiinnipeg 2/ ' 


Liveror.ol3y' = 2^^®^°s 

: Aires 3/ 




i jOi 




1931 


1932 


1931 


1932 


1931 : 


1932 


1951 


1932: 1931: 


1932 




. w cxl L S ' 


C ent s 


: Cent s 


Cents- 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents: 


Cents 


C en t <^ 


C en t ^ • C t-"i'i t '^ ' 


Cents 


■June ^ 


bU 


: 55 


54 


4^ 


64 


57 


65 : 


54 


63~: 


59 :5/49 : 


5/ 50 


•n-Ug , S-Zi j 




An 
- ' 


: 40 


41 ■ 


55, . 


,. 46 


53 .: 


.48 


: 54 : 


:50 :.5/33 : 


5/44 


oO 


: 4b 


oO 


41 


44 


58 


52 


■ 56 : 


.48 : 


57 • 




48 


27 


47 


53- 


39 


: 48 


• ■ s-g 


54 


■ 54 : 


■ 49 


: 56 : 


58 : 41 : 


48 


Sept. 2 


: 46 


53 


38 


: 47 


60 


55 


■ 52 : 


50 


54 


53 : 40 : 


48 


10 


: 48 


53 


: 41 


.47 


67 


54 


: 52 : 


50 


55 


60 :5/41 : 


49 



ij October futures for 



buying rate of exchange 



■'Winnipeg" and Liverpool. ■2/ Conversions in 1932 at noon 
1931 at par. 0/ Prices are of day previous to other 
prices. 4/ High and low for period (June 20 - August 19, 1932) '(June 22 - Aurast 
21, 1931). 5/ August futures. 6/ October futures. • • 



Table '5,- Wheat: V/eighted average cash price at stated markets 





All ■ classes: 


Ho . 


2' 


Ho 


. 1 : 


Ho. 


2 


Ho . 


2 


iVestern 


Week ; 


and grades : 


Hard 


/inter 


'Dk.H. 


Spring: 


Araber 


iXiruiT. 


:Hed. Wi 


nter 


whi te 


ended : 


six markets: 


Kansas City 


"MixUieapoli s: 


Minneapoli s' 


St. Louis 


Seattle l/ 




1931 . 


1932 : 


1931 


1932 : 


1931 


: 1932 


1931 : 


1932 


:1931 : 


1932 


:1931 :1932 




Cents 


Cents : 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


: Cents: 


Cents: 


Cents 


: Cents: 


Cents 


Cents: Cents 


June 17 


71 


: 56 : 


74 


■4-9 


80 


: 55 


58 : 


62 


: 82 : 


■55 


62 ': 58 


Aug. 12 )~ 


• 45 


: 47 : 


42 


43 


62 


: 57 


58 : 


52 


: 46 : 


'4-7 ' 


49:' 50 


19 


51 


55 : 


44 


. 47 : 


64 


: 59 : 


70 : 


57 : 


47 : 


"55 


49 : 57 


26 


54 


• 55 : 


42 


47 


66 


: 53 


75 : 


55 


48 : 


53 


: 46 : 56 


Sept. 2 


54 


57 : 


41 


49 


68 


: 61 


76 : 


56 


45 : 


56 


43 : 56 


9 


56 


56 : 


42 


.49 


71 


: 61 


71 : 


55 . 


48 ; 


55 


49 : 



i_/ viieeiciy average 01 daily cash ( 
2/ High and low ;f or period (June 



1 sacked 30 -days deliver^'. 



Table 6.- Yi/heat: Price per bushel at specified continental 

European markets • • 









Rotterdam 


Berlin 


: Paris 


: Milan 


Date 




: Range 


Ho. 2 : 


Ho. 3 


■ Argen- 


: Aua- 














Hard : 


"riani- 


tina 


: tralia 


; Domestic 










Winter: 


toba 


1/ 


2/ 














Cents : 


Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


: Cents 


1931 3/ 




High 






70 


: ' 78 


: 190 


: 204 


: 170 






Lov/ 






: 52 


: 54 . 


120 


: 167 


: 130 


1932 3/ 




High 


65 : 


75 


60 


66 


: 179 


: 185 


: 175 






Low 


53 : 


51 


49 


: 53 : 


132 


122 


: 135 


Aug. 25 






59 : 


55 


55 


: 59 


135 


: 133 


143 


Sept. 1 






59 : 


56 


56 


60 


134 


127 


147 


8 






62 : 


59 


59 


62 


137 


: 126 


149 


Prices at 


Berlin, Paris and i" 


lilan are of day , 


Drevious to other \ 


orices. P. 


."ices 


converted 


as follows: 1931 at par; 1932 at current rates of exci 


lange to \ 


larch 18; 



subsequently at par excepting Milan which has been converted at current rates. 
ll Barusso 2/ F. A. ^. 3/ For the period January to date. 



WH-77 



-11- 



The Suppl y and Distribution of Wl .eat by C lassr-s in the United 

States. 1929- 50 to 1932-3 5 

For the years 1929 to 1932 inclusive revised estimates of Vk'heat pro- 
duction by classes are now available for the United States. T:i3se estimates 
of production, together with estiraatus ■ of exports' by classes, and preliminary 
estimates of carry-over by classes ■ malco it possible to give approximate 
data of supply and. distribution of vvheat by classes in the United States. 
These are shown in- the accom.panying table. 

The total vmeat crop of the United States is now placed at 715,000,000 
bushels compared with 894,000,000 last year. The- carry-over as of July 1, 
1952 is esti-mated at 363,000,000 bushels, maicing a. total supply for the 
season of 1 ,076,000 ,o00 bushels, co.mpared with 1,213,000,000 last year. Out 
of this year's total supply, about 464,000,000 bushels is hard red winter 
wheat, 211,000,000 of soft red wir.ter, 244,000,000 hard red s-nring, 57,000,000 
duruin and 102,000,000 white wheat. If 'we compare these total supplies of 
the different classes with the disappearance for each class in past years, 
it i a. mediately becomes apparent that the present exportable sur -;lu3 of the 
United States consists primarily of hord red winter and ¥/hite wheats, together 
with a small aiTiount of dururri. 

It should be borne in mind that the figures of disappearance shovm 
in the accompanying table of the supply and distribution of classes include 
the cuv.ounts of wheat exported a,s flour, as well as luantities used in the 
milling of flour for domestic cons-omption and quantities used for seed and 
feedi-ng. 'A'ith the data now available it is not possible to make acr-.urate 
estimates of how -much of the total flour exports have been milled from each 
of tne different classes of wheat, but nevertheless exports by rc-.,ions give 
a fairly reliable indication. In the past three years exports of flour, 
in terms of wheat, (at the rate of 4.7 bushels of wheat to a barrel of flour) 
have averaged 52,000,000 bushels of wheat yearly. Indications arc that the 
flour v'hich is exported from the Atlantic ports is made largely from Canadian 
sprin-, wheat and United States hard red winter, while that exported from 
G"ilf ;oorts is made from hard rod winter wheat. Exports of the Pacific Coast, 
on tne other haiid, are apparently largely composed- of flour made from white 
wneat. Canadian wheat milled in bond has averaged 14,000,000 b-j.snels yearly. 
Pacific Coast flour exports (in terms of their wheat equivalent) averc ^ed 
18,0 JO, 000 bushels. Hence, about 17,0')0,000 bushels, which is included as 
disapoea.rrnce of white wheat, may be considered as disappearazice for 
flour v/hich is exported. Similarly, r.;ost of the remaining 21,0j0,0j0 bushels 
of wheat represented in flo"ar exports must be attributed to hard red winter 
wheat flQur and comprises a part of the disappearance of hard red winter 
as shown in the total. 

The disappearance of '-vheat in the past two years has been ^reatly 
affected' by the \musual amount of wheat fed. Feeding of wheat has apparently 
aiTio^onted" in 1930-31 and 1931-32 to roughly 100,000-,000 bushels yearly more 
than usual. Tnis extra heavy feeding is probably largely of- ha.rd. red v/inter 
wheat, though in proportion to -'che tota.l disappearance a great deal of 
durujTi ap-pcars to hs.ve been fed in 1930-31 and very considera.blc ajaounts of 
soft red winter wheats wore probably fed in both years. 



WH-77 



-12- 



Table 7.- Supply c,ncL distribution of wheat by classes in the United 

Stctes, '1929-30 to 1932-33 



Item 



Carry- in 

Crop 

Total supply 

Exports (as grain only). 

Disappearance 

Carry-out : 160 



Carry- in, 

Crop 

Total supply 

Exports (as grain only). 

Disappearsjice 

Carry-out 



Hard red winter 








A V e r f £■ e i 
1929-30 to: 
1931-32 . 


1929-30 : 


1930-31 : 


1931-32 : 


1932-33 


M"! 1 "l i nil * 
bushels 


Million : 
bushels : 


Million : 
bushels : 


Million : 
bashels 


Million 

b.-i^shel s 


117 
411 


90 : 
: 362 : 


113 
37 6 


149 
494 


219 
245 


528 


452 


489 ; 


643 


: 464 


59 
309 ■ 
160 


: 54 
: . 285 
: 113. 


. . 47 
: 293 
: 149 


76 

: 348 
: 219 




Soft rod winter 


29 
197 


: 26 
: 16^ 


: 34 

175 


: 27 
: 249 


: 64 

: 147 


226 


: 192 


: 209 


: 276 


: 211 


: 3 

182 
: 42 


: 3 

: 155 
:. 34 


: 3 
: 179 
: 27 


: 2 
: 210 
: 64 





Hard red spring 



90 

123 



13 



Carry- in : 

Crop • 

Tot?l supply '• 

Exports (as grain only)...: 1 

Disappearance : " 132 

Carry-out : §0 



84 
145 



229 



2 

133 
94 



: 94 : 


91 : 


54 


159 


64 : 


190 


c 253 


155 


: 244 


: 1 






: 161 


: ■ 101 




: 91 


: 54 





Durum 



Carry- in 

Crop 

Total supply 

Exports (as grain only) 

Disappearance 

Carry- out ■ 



26 
45 



71 



11 
39 
21 



25 
56 



81_ 
'l5 
40 
26 



26 

59 



85 
12 
46 





27 : 


11 




19 


46 




46 


. • 57 




: 5 






: 30 






: 11 





Vfnite 



Carry- in 

Crop 

Total supply 

Exports (as grain only) 

Disappearnace 

Garry- out 



21 
80 



_101 
15" 
65 
21 



16 : 


23 : 


24 : 


15 


84 


89- : 


68 


87 


100 : 


112 


92 


: 102 


IP 


14 


14 




59 


74 


63 




23 


24 


15 





Division of Statistical and Historical Research. 



1 



WH-77 



-15- 



It is difficult to arrive at any satisfactory estimates of the nomal 
"requirements" of wheat by classes. While milling demands for the various 
Kiinds of wheat are to a certain extent distinct and separate, a great deal 
of s^ibstitution is nevertheless possible. Thus in 1929-30 the milling of 
hard red winter was considerably augmented by reason of the rela,tively small 
crop of spring wheat. In 1031-32 the very short crop of spring wheat 
again resulted in the use of greater quantities of hard red winter for mill- 
ing than would have been the case had there been more plentiful su^oplies of 
spring brea.d v/heat. Then too, the aiTOunts fed are likely to vary greatly 
wita tiio different classes of v/heat, depending upon prices of wheat and of 
tne feed grains, together with the relative abundance of supplies of wheat 
in regions where feeding is possible. 

Under conditions where there is a minimum of feeding, total consumption 
of the United States will amount to about 600,0.;0,000 bushels at present 
average levels (500,0 0,000 bushels for food, 79,000,000 bushels for seed 
and the remainder for feed and loss). Under such conditions the consumption 
of hard red spring wheat may be expected to amo'ont to about 150,000,000 
bushels in ;vears when supplies are sufficient to permit it. Even more may 
be used if supplies are abundant and prices are low relative to winter wheat 
prices. Similarly, if supplies of soft red winter V'.hOc.-.t are sufficient, 
total cons-jjnption of this class may be expected to amount to about 
175,0G0,>.'00 bushels, while dur^am cons\imption is likely tc aiiiount to 30,000,000 
bushels and that of white wheat 45,000,0'JO. The remaining 20j,000,000 bushels 
necessarj' to make up the total of 600,000,000 would be of hard red winter 
wheat. However, there are frequently years when the supplies and relative 
prices of herd red spring and soft red winter wheat are not sufficient to 
warrant the cons^omption of 150,000,000 and 175,000,000 bushels respectively 
of tiiese clasoes, and such deficiencies as there m.ay be in the consumption 
of these may be expected to be made up principally by increased consui'nption 
of hard red winter v/heat. Consequently, even under conditions of a minimum 
of feeding, the average consion^jtion of hard red winter is likely to be 
above 200,000,000 bushels yearly, perliaps amo-onting to 225,000,000 bushels. 
The o.verage consumption of soft red winter and hard red spring wheat would 
be correspondingly reduced by reason of the years of relatively short sup- 
plies. ■ ■ . : • 

The above fig-ares, it must be remembered, are all based upon- condi- 
tions of minimuin wheat feeding, not upon average conditions of wheat feeding, 
and more especially not with conditions such as are likely tc obtain as long 
as wheat prices remain at their present very low levels. Thus, under 
present conditions it seems likely that total disappearance of wheat in the 
United States will amount tc about 660,000,000 bushels yearly. The bulk 
of this additional feeding would probably be of hard red winter, although 
witn a, short crop of this class of v/heat, such as has been harvested this 
year, tne amount fed will not be so large as '."/ith a crop of more normal size. 
Soft red winter and dunun wheat consumption is also likely to be increased 
markedly in years of .- heavy feeding, while hard red spring and white wheats 
appear to be less subject to f luctu:..tions in feeding. In the case of v/hite 
v;heat, this is not because it is fed to a small extent, as there is a fairly 
steady demand for wheat for feeding in Idaho and other parts of the C-reat 
Basin region. 



WH-77 -14- 

In view of the above figures of the domestic consumption by elapses 
it is evident that our exportable surplus of v/heat at the present time 
consists largely of hard red winter. The soft red "'/inter wheat supplies 
of 211,000, 000 bushels 'are only abo';.t sufficient to provide for expected 
consumptiori and the .moderate carry-over. While supplies of hard red spring 
wheat ainount'to .about 244,000,000 bushels compared with a. normal consumption 
of around 150 ,000 ,000' bushels or'a little more, it does not seem likely that 
any considerable amount will be exported. Rather the carry-over will be built 
up to insure. adequate supplies in case of smaller yields another year, and 
only limi ted . aJTiounts of Pacific Coast or of low protein hard red spring wheat 
are likely to be exported. Durum supplies of around 57,000,000 bushels are 
only 16,000,000 bushels in excess of the disappearance ' of last year end 
the small carry-over into the current' season. This is sufficient to provide 
for some export, but if prices are low enough to be on an export basis, it 
is likely that domestic durum consumption will be considerably augmented by 
feeding. The supply of white v;heat, ainounting to about 102,000,000 bushels, 
is of course w.bll in excess of our figure for normal domestic consumption 
of 45,000,000 bushels plus a carry-over of around 15,000,000 bushels. Pre- 
suma^bly the carry-over will be somewhat larger than 15,;)00,0j0 bushels but 
even if it should be as high as the largest carrj^-over of the past three 
years, a Considerable amount of white wheat would be available for exports, 
either as wheat or as flour, or both. In the case of hard red winter, for 
which supplies total about 464,000,000 bushels, there is evidently a large 
Q.U8jitity available for export. If we allov; for domestic use of 200,000,000 
bushels for food and seed, and about 40,000,000 bushels for feed, there 
would be over 224,000,000 busnels for export and carry-over. Tliis, of course, 
is only slightly in excess of the carry-over in the current season, but it 
is about 125,000,000 bushels more than wha.t may be termed a normal carry-over 
for this class of wheat. 

Table. &..- United States wheat exports by classes , 1927-28 to 1931-32 



Year 



beginning: 


Hard red, , 


Durum 


Hard red 


Soft red 


Vsnite 


Total 


July 1 : 


sirring : 




winter 


winter 








1,000 


1 , 000 


1,000- 


1,000 


1,000 


1,000 




bushels 


bushels 


bushels 


bushel s 


b^xshels 


bushels 


1927-28 ..: 


6 , 000 


: 36 , 500 


: 60,300 


12,800 


30,400 


146,100 


1928-29 ..: 


2,200 


47 , 500 


35,000 


3,000 


15,400 


■ 103 , 100 


1929-30 ..: 


1,900 


: 14,800 


54,400 


2,700 


• 18,400 


92,200 


1930-31 . . . 


600 


: 12,100 


47 , 300 


2,600 


13,700 


76,300 


1 931-32 prel 


: ,100 


: 4,700 


75,500 


2,200 : 


14,000 


: 36,500 



Computed from total exports by customs districts on the basis of inspections 
of wheat for export by ports and classes in the United States and Canadian 
Eastern Gra-in Division. 



Table'. 9..- Vfceat production by. classes, for the United States, 192 9-1932 



Year' ' ■ : 


vi/inter 


Spring; : 


White : 


Total 


■ Hard : 
red * 


Soft 
red • 


Hard : 
___jred_ 


Duruir. 


(Winter 3c : 
spring) 


1929 

1930 


: 1,000 • 
: bushels 
: 362,353 

• 375,994 

• 494,131 

• 244,831 


1,000 
bushels 
: 165,760 
: 175,300 
: 248,505 
146,653 


i",ooo' 

: bushels 
: 144,678 
. 159,121 
: 54,184 
: 189,720 


1,000 
: bushels 
: 56,307 

59,162 
: 18,920 

45 , 600 


: ]. , 000 
: b a she Is 
03 , 475 
88, .583 
68,464 
37 , 534 


: 1,0^0 
.bushels 

: 812,573 
&-5S,150 
894,204 
714,538 







WK-77 _15_ 

The Continental Euro ;&e an Wheat M cirkct S ituation During Aufflist l/ 

Continental wneat markets during August were dominated "by the prospects 
of large doinestic crops throughout the westoi-n half of Europe. Unusually fine 
weather prevailed throughout the month, and exceptionally rapid progress v/a,s 
made with harvesting and threshing. As a consequence, there was considerable 
pressure on domestic markets in western Europe from new crop wheat, for which 
flour mills showed limited interest, in view of improving crop prospects. 
Wheat prices in the month - notwithstanding the firmness of worll orices - and 
the premiums paid for spot wheat in July disappeared rapidly early in Au^^ust. 
In eastern Europe, where threshing results began to show yields below earlier 
expectations, however, the tone of the uiarkets was comparatively firm. 

Continental demand for foreign wheats during August, A'ith many of the 
largest deficit co-ontries in the process of harvesting very large crops, has 
naturally been of a hand-to-mouth character. The tightening of import re- 
stricting laeasures has been an important factor. Only the import mar:cets of 
Holland, cud Belgium were active in August, ond bu;y'ing interest, even there, 
was only sporadically active in reo.ction to North ATicric,?n developments. 

While favorable crop prospects, currency difficulties, and measures to 
protect home agriculture or to restrict trc.de generally, are the principal 
factors in keeping European demand for foreign wheat within nar-rov/ liiaits, 
it is also apparent that continued lock of confidence is not without in- 
fluence in the attitude of the continental trade toward -future commitments. 
Notwithstanding the small winter i"heat crop in the United States, and rec<,nt 
deterioro.tion in the outlook for North American spring wheat, as v/ell as un- 
favorrble reports from Russia, attention continues to be focusscd upon the 
relatively large stocks of old crop still available in North America. The 
trade view is that Europe's reQ.uirements will be largely covered from its own 
supplies for months to come, and that there will be no difficulty in covering 
import needs later on, so that th^ tendency to keep stocks as small rs possible 
still persists. More favorable economic reports from the United States have 
not materially influenced trade opinion, which views more substantial evidence 
of a turn as necessary before a change in buying policy is warranted. Even when 
such a turn comes, however, currency and general trade restrictions v/ill un- 
doubtedly hajnper its free development. 

Wheat and flour shipments to Europe and the Continent continued to decline 
in Au;^,ust, and were on lower levels tho,n in the corresponding period of last 
year. Tne Danube Basin was not a seller of wheat during the month, but Russia 
again appeared in a small way in the latter half, ojfter a period of majny 
months v/ithout any contribution to v/orld market supplies. Best informed opinion 
is that Russia's a.ppearance does not herald the beginning of ajiy substaaitial 
movement of wheat from Russia, although increased exports seem likely in the 
coming v;euks. 

Market Section 

GreriTiaiiy 

The German wheat mark'.t was but slightly influenced by world i.ia.rket 
developments durin^ August. Prospects of a record domestic wheat crop and 

1/ Based on report of AgriculturaJ Attache' Loyd V. Steere, Berlin, acrmany, 
Aug-ast 31, 193'2. 



mi-77 ■ ■ ■ -16- 

iaeai weatner in which to harvest it determined the tone of the market, '.vhich 
weakened steadily during most" of the month. Some resistcjice to the pressure 
on prices was uiidoubtedly presented, however, by relatively small farm market- 
ings, due to the fact that farmers were unusually busy with field work because 
of excellent weather, and efforts of the Government to aid in tho marketing 
of the crop were also of some effect. In fact, the last week in August has 
shown some tendency toward improvement in the domestic wheat market. Continued 
small deliveries and prospects of additional emergency measures by tne Govern- 
m-ent for the protection of agric^alture are responsible for this recover^-. 

Efforts to dispose of German wheat in other Suropepji countries, enabled 
by the so-called wheat exchange plan, are not meeting with great success, 
yet a certain quajitity of grain is being placed in England and the Scriidinavian 
countries. The generally quiet state of international trade, end the numerous 
restrictions in effect, as well as relatively good crop prospects in other 
European countries, will doubtless influence the workings of this plan. 

The steady downward movement of bread grain prices in Germany during 
July and August is stiown in the following table. 



Ta.ble 10.- Germany: Price per bushel of domestic wheat and rye at 
specified markets, July 6 - Septem.ber 7, 1932 



Date 


: Wheat 


Rye 


Hojnburg ; 


Breslau 1/ 


Berlin 2/ 


Berlin 3/ 






C en t s 


Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


July 


6 


161 : 


154 


152 : 


113 




13 


158 : 


152 


: 152 


107 




20 


: 156 


149 


156 






27 .. 


: 159 


149 




: 101 


Aug. 


3 


157 


147 


: 143 


98 




10 


146 


142 


138 


97 




17 


140 


137 


131 


96 




24 . 


138 : 


136 


• 133 : 


94 




31 


141 


138 


: 134 : 


97 


Sept 


. 7 


143 : 


140 


137 


98 



Prices converted at current r^ates of exchange. 
1/ :Lier.t of average quality of 57.9 pounds per Winchester bushel. 2/ "i.iarkischer 
wheat 58.3 59.0 pounds per Winchester bushel. 3/ "Markischer" rye of 55,9 - 
56.7 pounds per Winchester bushel. 



Stocks of grain in the hands of the trade in Germany (the so-called 
second-hand stocks) reached v/hat v/as undoubtedly their lo'v point on July 31, 
with a fig^ure of only 5,769,000 bushels of wheat and l,024,0u0 barrels of wheat 
flour so iield. Tlie July 1 figures contain almost no new crop grain, except 
possibl,^' in the case of barley, as little or no movement of grain occurred 
before ti.e end of the m.onth. Fam deliveries during August are indicted to 
have been modest, so that an unusual increa.se in trade holdings as of August 
31 has probably not occurred, thougli higher figures are anticipated. Tlriesc 
stocks figures represent about 95 per cunt of tr.e total stocks held by mills 
and Warehouses in Germany. 



WH-77 



-17- 



The system of measures for the relief of the German grain market, describ- 
ed in last month's report, has been supplemented by some additional measures 
during August. The scheme whereby tlie Getreide Ilandelsgesellschaft linked up 
the sales of Ri.issian ry«- with domestic barley has now been modified by the in- 
clusion of domestic rye, in order to afford, if possible, some relief for the 
rye market, which has weakened steadily under the prospects of a very large crop. 
The new plan provides for the sale of Russian rye in the proportion of 50 per 
cent in conjunction with 25 per cent each of domestic barley and domestic rye. 
The grains are not actually mi::ed, but are merely sold in combination at an 
attractive price to- encourage the feeding of a heavier proportion of home-grown 
rye. Delivery of the Russian r^'e included in the combination, in fact, is post- 
poned until later in the season, in order to remove all possible pressure during 
the period when the home crop is moving. 

Another measure has been the making of arrangements by the Government with 
manufacturers of chicken feed, under which the latter agree to take 2,756,000 
bushels of wheat off the market and sell it in a feed mixture containing a com- 
paratively large percentage of corn. The poultry feed manufacturers obtain the 
corn froia the grain monopoly at a reduced price, which enables them to quote an 
attractive price for the feed mixture. As a part of the same agreement, the 
feed manufacturers obligated themselves to purchase 4,921,000 bushels of rye and 
store it for a period of four months, 

Fran co 

Ideal weather conditions and splendid progress with the harvesting in 
France, coupled with rising estimates of the crop outturn, have contributed _ 
during August to a rapid drop in wheat prices that has largely severed domestic 
wheat markets from contact with the outside v/orld. The premiums demanded for 
spot v/heat in July, when lack of supplies caused the closing down of a number of 
flour mills, disappeared rapidly in August when the nev; crop began to move, and 
mills found themselves able to v/ithdraw again from the market. Since the middle 
of August, however, a slight recovery, owing to reduced deliveries, is again 
evident. 

The sharp break in French wheat prices has unloosed a storm of dissatis- 
faction and complaint among French farm.ors, and resulted in the bringing of 
great pressure on the Governraent to institute relief measures. The Government 
has advised farmers to v7ithhold wheat from the market vriiorevor possible, and 
numerous steps are under consideration to facilitate marketing of the crop or 
otherwise to support prices. Speculative activity on the grain exchanges ,has 
been the object of sharp criticism in French farm circles as an important factor 
in the drop in prices, but there appears to be little evidence that this claim 
is well founded. A large crop of excellent quality is undoubtedly the chief 
factor in the recession. The raising of the milling quota from 75 to 85 per 
cent early in August and to 97 per cent a few days later may have helped to 
check the decline, but even these steps did not appear to have great influence 
at the time they \7ere taken. The outlook for the irench v/hcnt market is rather 
unfavorable, as it seems entirely possible that France will have an outright 
surplus from the 1932 wheat crop, and that greater pressure on the Government 
may lead to the adoption of additional measures to raise or maintain u'heat 
prices. It remains to be seen, however, \7hether the Government will again resort 
to the encouragement of exports, as in 1929, follo'./ing the bumper crop that year. 
In any event, it appears certain that the 97 per c^nt milling quota will be 
maintained throughout most of the season. 



ViK-77 



-18-. 



Italy ''^ . • 

:: Italian markets shov/ed" little interest . in foreip;n wheat during Auf^ust, 
although normal business in dor;iGstic grain xvas apparent, vith the market showing 
a slightly improving tendency , in -the middle of . the month. Aiaerican duruia wheats 
were 'about the only foreign wheats of any interest to Italian buyers. 

■ ■ . The quality of , a -fairly . lurge p.erceritage of the Italian wheat crop in the 
northern provinces appears to, have suffered from unfavorable weather conditions 
in July, and it is not unlikely that this may be a factor of some importance in 
the demand for better grades of wheat later on in the season. 

Holland and Bel gium , ■ , ■ . : 

Belgian and Dutch flour mills w'ere relatively active buyers of spot and 
near wheat of foreign descriptions during the first half of August. Overseas 
wheats - Plates, hard v/inters and Manitobas - were chiefly in demand, but some 
purcha&es' of German v/heats :were also made. Prices were largely go\-erned by 
developments in North America, and the tone of the market was distinctly firm, 
in sympathy with overseas offers during -the first half, of the month. The demand 
quieted do-^m thereafter, but there was npt much change in quotations. As the 
month closes, it appears that the favorable ^development of crop prospects in 
northern and v/estern Europe has assuiaed greater importance as a factor in deter- 
mining the character of Belgian and Dutch transit business for the time being. 
With the German market virtually closed to wheat imports, the Scandinavian coun^. 
tries, naturally, assume considerably more significance in the Dutch and Belgian 
trade. 

The compulsory milling percentage for domestic wheat has now been raised 
in Holland from 20 to 25 per cent, and remains at that figure, notwithstanding 
some agitation for a further increase. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and 
Labor in Holland is reported, according to the press, as being unable to find 
any reason for changing the quota from 25 to 50 per cent, the main reason for 
not increasing it being that the 1932 crop, although much increased, will not be 
sufficient to provide 50 per cent of the white flour requirements of the' country, 
without cutting off the grain supplies of millers of lower grades of flour, such 
as Graham flour. . ' 



Czechoslovak ia 

The Czechoslovakian wheat market has weakeiied slightly during August, with 
the beginning of the movemeiit of the new crop. Mill buying of v/hcat continues 
relatively restricted, but none the less has increased, and wheat prices are 
showing relatively greater strength than rye prices, which have declined material 
ly in the face of prospects of an excellent rye crop. 

Good quality native wheat in Czechoslovakia prom.ises to command a premium 
duriag the current season, as unfavorable weather in July caused extensive lodg- 
ing, with the result that a large percentage of lo\; quality v;hcat is being 
harvested this year. Extensive dcjraage iTom rust has also become apparent, par- 
ticularly in eastern Czechoslov;.kia, in the. past few weeks, and will further 
affect the quality, as well as the .actual outturn of the crop, possibly to a 
greater extent than hitherto expected, notwithstanding a new official report just 
received,- placiiig this year's crop at 53,535,000 bushels, as compared with 
41,232,000 bushels last year. The Berli"' office believes that this estimate is 
probably too high. 



VK-77 



-19- 



The grain import syndicatG under consideration in Czechoslovakia v^as 
finally formed, and became effective on July 28, through the signing of a con- 
tract between the Government and groups interested in /p?ain for the complete 
control of foreign trade in grain. The syndicate succeeds an interministerial 
commission, whose aim was similar, but which did not prove entirely successful. 
The goal of the new syndicate is to regulate imports in such a way as to assure 
a minimimi price to farmers. The minimum price aimed at for wheat is vl»Sl per 
bushel, and a maximuin price of vl»41 has also been set. Imports will be allowed 
to enter the country in such volume as is necessary to prevent domestic prices 
rising above this level. The introduction of the syndicate is clso expected to 
stimulate "compensation business" with neighboring countries, in which Czecho- 
slovakia is greatly interested for the sake of its Important export industries. 

Austria 

The Austrian wheat market was relatively active during miuch of August, 
because of limited offerings of domestic grain and the short supplies of foreign 
grain resulting from the stringent restrictions on imports. At the close of the 
month increasing supplies of new crop native wheat have tended to ease sellers* 
demands, 

Russia 

Cro p ou t loo k 

It is still somewhat too early to attempt a definite estimate of the 1932 
Russian wheat crop, but private reports from a nuraber of sources, combined with 
official Russian announcements and analyses of weather data, point to the likeli- 
hood of below average yields for the Russian v/heat crop as a whole, Winter wheat 
yields may not be much below average, but the spring wheat outturn will be defi 
nitely below last year's production, because of the decrease of about 10 per cent 
in acreage, and yields probably more b^low average than is the case for winter 
wheat. The spring wheat outlook is reported to be particularly poor in the Volga 
section, because of a serious seed shortage, and none too favorable v/eather. 
Late seeding will also contribute to the reduction of spring vjhoat yields. 

Considerable variation in winter wher.t yields seems likely. The presence 
of rust in western Ukraina is definitely established, and it is knox/n that yields 
were seriously affected in much of the north Caucasus by drought and hot winds 
in June. It also appears from v/eathor data t-iat unusually hcdvy rains have 
fallen in the north Caucausus and Ulcraina during the harvest season, and this is 
confirmed by private reports, as well as by the extreme backur.rdness of harvest 
v/ork and procuring in these areas. A private report just received states that 
yields on the big State farms at Verblud and Gigcnt in north Caucausus will be 
lower than last year, because of the excessive rain, and last year's results v/ere 
notably poor in that area. 

Conditions in Siberia, on the other hand, are reported to be much bettor, 
and a favorable yield may be secured in that region, but definite infomiation is 
still lacking. 

Th e_ harvesting campaign 

Harvesting \io.5 reported practicr.lly finished in Crimea on August 20, near- 
ing its completion in the other southern and southeastern sections of the Union, 
and entering its most important stage in the eastern regions, with a totr.l 



WK-77 



-20- 



c.crecge cut on August 20 of 140,417,000 acres, or c.bout 69 per cent of the totr.l 
acreage of \7inter end early spring crops. This is oven less favorable than last 
year, when, vjith 161,907,000 acres cut by August SO, harvesting v;as badly behind, 
and considerable losses occurred. The lag compca-ed with last year is particular- 
ly large in Ukraine, \;here 28 per cent less acref.ge had been cut by August 20, 
but all oth(,r important grain producing regions of uhe South and Southeast are 
also belov; 1931, Rains hampered field work during the first half of August, par- 
ticularly in the South, but a pick-up was apparent during the latter part of 
August, VThen weather conditions improved. 

The discrepancy between cutting and threshing apparent in the autumn 1931 
is occurring again this year. Out of the total of 140,417,000 acres cut by 
August 20, only 31,226,000 acres had been threshed, the corresponding figures for 
last year being 161,907,000 acres and 49,625,000 acres. The slow threshing is 
at least one of the reasons for the unsatisfactory development of procurings. 
Stacking has improved somewhat, 50 per cent of that cut to August 20 having been 
stacked against 33 per cent last year. 

The 19_32-53 proc uring campaign 

July, the first month of the Russian grain procuring ccjiipaign, closed with 
a considerable nonexecution of the Govemment plajn, total procurings having 
amounted to only 45 per eent of the prograii for tlnat month. Procurings continued 
to lag behind expectations during August, -..ith only 44 per cent of the monthly 
plan carried out by August 25. It appears, despite the considerable reduction 
of this year's procuring plan, as com.pared with 1931-32, that Soviet authorities 
will meet with greater difficulties than usual in procuririg the grain this v/inter. 
The none too favorable crop outturn, coupled with tlio tendency of many peasants 
to withhold delivery, will be importcait factors in the development of the new 
campaign. This year the sale of grain on the open market is permitted again for 
the first time in years, and the great discrepancy between prices on the open 
market and those paid by the Goverranent procurirxg organs is a great handicap to 
the latter. The decree pex-mitting free trading in grain indicates that no trad- 
ing shall occur before the procuring plan is fully executed, but this part of the 
decree, apparently, is not being enforced. It seems reasonable to expect, there- 
fore, that a considerable share of this year's commercial crop vtxII flow into 
other than Governraent procuring channels, and this is likoly to lead to the 
failure of the Government procuring plan. 

Liberal advances of pay i-; kind to members of the collectives as threshing 
progresses is also blroned for preventing the full execution of the procuring 
plan during the first six xreeks of the new campaign. 

There has also been considerable mention in the Russian press of theft of 
grain, both from the fields and from barns, which is attributed to the "kulak" 
element. These occurrences appear to be very widespread, and are probably to be 
associated v;ith the extremely serious food shortage, and even famine conditions, ^ 
which have been reliably reported in some areas. A decree signed by high 
Russian officials imposes severe penalties for all theft of public property, and 
the property of the collectives, including the crops still on the fields, is 
classified as "public" property. 

Altogether, the outset of the 1932-33 procuring crjnpaign is characterized 
■ by numerous unfavorable factors, and th-w outlook seems even less favorable thr.n 
at the same tine a year ago. 



WrL-77 



-21- 



The fall sowing ca mpaign 

The fall seeding campaign started tov/ard the middle of August, but does 
not appear to be making satisfactory headvray. The dolay in sowings may be par- 
tially due to dry weather throughout most of the northern and central sections of 
the Union during the first half of August, v/hich handicapped seeding in regions 
which normally start fall work first. It remains to be seer, however, vjhether 
or not the reluctance of peasants to sow that was evident during the spring may 
not affect adversely the autumn sov/ing as well. 

This year's seeding plan is fi:x;ed at 101,793,000 acres as compared vdth 
106,945,000 acres planjied for 1931 and 96,556,000 acres nov; reported sovm in the 
fall of 1931. As v;as evident in the spring this year, the Government now appears 
to be concentrating its efforts on more effective v;ork, the seeding of "grain" 
rather than "hectares". Thus, for the first time, the stipulation of the Com- 
missariat of Agriculture containing the sowing plan mentions definite sowing 
dates for individual regions and indicates that sov^^ings executed after these dates 
will be regarded as delayed and v/ill be classified separately. It is interesting 
to note that the seeding date after which sowings v/ill be regarded late is set 
earlier than generally regarded necessary. This is doubtless due to the desire 
to speed up sov/ings. 

As to the distribution of seedings according to crops, the tendency tov/ard 
expansion of T/inter wheat at the expense of rye still continues and is clearly re- 
flected in this year's plans: 



1932_p_laxL .1^31 _f all_ ac reage 

1,000 _acres 1,000 _ac_i^s 



Winter wheat " 3G",10i "* ' 32j3'36~ 

Winter rye 63,821 64,399 

Winter barley 1,260 872 

Technical crops __ 2,484 949 

All crops "ro'3,~666 "98~~55¥ 



The plan foresees the following acreage under individual crops in the chief 
grain regions of the Union: 

Total fall 

acreage \'!hcat Rye 

1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,00 0 acr_<js 



Total Union 1037666" "36,101 63,821 

Ukraine Vii 26,514 16,062 10,131 

Nnrth CeucaBus. . 10,996 9,217 1,359 

Crimea:.. 1,260 1,245 

Central fertile ... 10,774 2,224 7^438 

Lower Volga 6,301 1,236 4,942 

Middle Volgc 7,6G0 346 6,573 

Western region...., 4,077 148 3,929 

Ivloscow region 4,225 247 3,978 

Nijninovgorod 6,388 49 6,338 

Ural 3,336 - -- 3,333 

Eashkeoria 2,743 2,718 

Tatar Republic .... 3,039 3,086 



As compared with the autujrin of 1931, the share of the Socialistic sector 
is to be further increased at t]\e expense of individual holdings, 'with 77.8 per 
cent of all fall acreage to be sovto by State and collective farms, compared v/ith 
71.8 per cent sown by them last fall. 



■711-77 



-22- 



Russian grain shipmen ts 

Shipments of Russian grain from south Russian ports were practically nil 
during the first two months of the- new campaign, although the first shipment of 
wheat in several months was made in the last half of August. Chartering and 
transactions in Russian grain was also insignificant during that period, 

A Review_of the -. /hea t Situat ion in C hina 1/ 

In China, the wheat crop is smaller tlian last year in those districts 
where production affects the foreign trade in wneat and flour. In north China 
and in north Manchuria the crop! is considered to be 20 per cent and 67 per cent, 
respectively, less than last year and it is expected that in these regions there 
will he a greater need for fore igiA flour. Prospects for additional imports, 
therefore, at Tientsin and at>Dairen are favorable. At Shanghai the wheat crop 
was somewhat shorter than last year but excellent prospects for the rice crop 
and other food crops in the Yangtze Valley may not necessitate the record imports 
of foreign wheat which occurred last year partially as a- result of flood damage 
and food shortages in the Yangtze Valley, At the present 'time quotations for 
foreign wheat are too high in relation to the domestic flour market to warrant 
substantial purchases of foreign wheat. Forward contracts are small compared 
with last year at this time, according to a recent cable from Agricultural Com- 
missioner 0. L, DavJson at Shanghai. 

The wheat crop in northern Manchuria promises to be only about one-third 
of last year's crop beca';se of reduced acreage and flood dam.age. The full extent 
of the flood damage is difficult to detennine at this time, but present conditior.s 
point to prospects as indicated above-. Manchuria normally experiences heavy rains 
in July and A.ugust, but this year the rains' v»rere exctSssiv^ arid the valleys have 
been flooded. The short wheat crop will probably strengthen 'the market for for- 
eign flour in south Manchuria but cheap domestic; 'cereals 'v/ill be largely substi- 
tuted for the wheat shortage. Carr^-^-over ■ from last year''s crop is considered 
larger than usual. ' 

Last year's v^heat crop v/as placed at 58,000,000 bushels and one-third of 
that would represent about 19,000,000 bushels v/hich was the same as the estimate 
for 1923. For the past five years production has been in the neighborhood of 
50,000,000 bushels and only in 1923. v/as such a small wheat crop recorded. In 
Manchuria wheat is gro\7n largely in the :Morth, only 15 p)or cent of the acreage 
being located in south Manchuria, and production in the latter region is not 
sufficient for the entire requirements of south Manchuria. Normally, therefore, 
there are imports of foreign flour at the entry port of DairCn 'to supply the 
deficit requirements of south Manchuria. In many years due to short crops in 
north Manchuria or to Ion prices of 'import flour, foreign flour has moved north 
as far as Mukden and Changchun in central Manchuria. 'Vrnon the north Maxchurian 
crop is large or prices of foreign flour are high, imports atDairen have been 
small and consumption of imported flour ht.s been largely confint^d to the Port 1 
of Dairon. Under those circumstances imports of foreign and Shanghai flour have 
varied from as much as 1,760,000 barrels (equivalent to 7,920,000 bushels of 
wheat) in 1923, when the crop was similar in size to t'his year's production, to 
as little as 333,000 barrels (lj49S,000 bushels) in 1927. Average fCnnuol im- 
ports in recent years havo been approximately 1,200,000 barrels (5,400,000 
bushels). Most of these imports have consisted of foreign flour, but in some 
years flour milled in Shanghai competes successfvlly v.'ith im.portod flour. 

J./ Based on reports from Agricultural Cojamiinsioner Q. L. ba.'./Gon, Shanghai, Cnin?, 



m-71 



-231 



AraeriCcin flour hr.s occupied a leadiiig 'pl'r.ce in the south ManchuriciB market but 
last year iinport3 v;ere largely from Japan. 

At best, wheat occupies a very minor place in the diet of the Chinese in 
Manchuria and although the short crop is expected to strengthen the market for 
foreign flour, the demand may not be so great as the short crop would indicate. 
Tho main diet of the Chinese in Lfcmchuria consists of cheaper cereals, chiefly, 
millet, com, and grain sorghmns. Consequently a large percentage decrease in 
wheat supplies does }iot menn a grc;at reduction in total cereal supplies. A 
small reduction in total cereal consunlption can offset a large reduction in the 
wheat crop and this may restrict the demand for foreign flour, to moderate quanti- 
ties. Flour prices are lo,v but- this factor may be more than offset by disturbed 
business' conditions and poor fanning returns. 

Tientsi n flour production and consumption for l ast year 

Less native wheat was available at Tientsin during the crop year which 
closed on June 30 than during tho preceding year. Flour production for the year 
just closed reached a total of 1,797,000 barrels, compared with 1,810,000 barrels 
last year and with the 4-year average of 1,159,000 barrels. About 767,000 bushels 
of Australian wheat were used to supplement native supplies, compared \,'ith 233,000 
bushels the previous year. Total imports of flour for the crop year were 2,994,902 
barrels compared with 2,418,000 the previous year and with the 5-yoar average of 
3,820,000 barrels. Stocks at the end of the year were placed at 210,000 barrels, 
or a decrease of 165, OCO barrels from stocks at the beginning of the year. The 
apparent flour trade of Tientsin as represented by domestic production, imports 
and changes in stocks was therefore 4,956,902 barrels compared v/ith 4,053,000 in 
1930-31, and 5,752,000 barrels in the marketing year of 1929-30. A considerable 
decline in imports of both American and Canadian flour was noted in favor of 
cheaper Shanghai flour, "v;hich experienced a large increase. Flour imports from 
Japan declined but this was due more to the boycott- than to unfavorable prices 
since Japanese mills, like Shanghai mills, had an advantage of cheap Australian 
wheat. Receipts at Tientsin of flour milled in Shanghai were 2,511,215 barrels 
comprjred with 1,008,000 barrels the previous year and an average of 1,965,000 
barrels for the last five years. 

The 1931 wheat crop v/hich was superior in quality produced supplies suffi- 
cient to keep the local Tientsin flour mills very active during the first months 
of the new crop and marketing year, but after the first quarter competition 'v/ith 
Shanghai milled flour was very difficult. Disturbed political conditions in 
November seriously interfered xrith operation of Tientsin mills and stopped arriv- 
als of wheat to such an extent that stocks for winter use were reduced much beloi; 
normal. In December Shanghai milled flour was flooding tho market and local mills 
could not profitably compete with it. Tho boycott of Japanese flour at Tientsin, 
beginning in the fall of 1931, drastically reduced imports from Japan. 

Tho outbreak of Sino-Japaneso hostilities at Shanghai the last of January, 
with congestion of shipping and temporary stoppage of milling operations, cut off 
flour exports from Shanghai to north China during February. Shipments were re- 
simed agr.in in mid-Mr.rch ' and registered a good volume during the last quarter of 
the crop year. During that period (April-June), the force o"f the boycott on 
Japanese flour had abated to a sufficient extent so that moderate imports of 
flour were shovm. In Ivlr.rch stocks of native wheat becfjne so lov^ that mills were 
induced to buy Australian wheat ^/hich w:.s low in price and also had the advantage 
of low freight rr.tes. 767,000 bushels of Australian wheat imported in the spring 
were used by Tientsin mills to blend with native wheat. The wheat v;as sold to tho 



-24^ 



mills at about 54 cents per bushel c.i.f. Results Vv*ith this wheat were fairly 
satisfactory, but no more was contracted. 

Apparently the reason more- foreign wheat is not imported is that handling 
of cargo is difficult and. expensive, ' The vessels bringing in wheat must remain 
outside Taku Bar. and' all cargo be lightered to Tientsin. It is also true that 
millers do not have much experience' in the handling of foreign wheat but the 
short domestic crop this year may influence millers to experiment further with 
foreign .wheat and purchase some additional supplies. Some interest in American 
wheat has-been indicated, and' small purchases may be made if prices are in line 
with other wheat. TOieat produced in the hinterland of Tientsin is not nearly 
sufficient to meet the flour requirements of the area and Tientsin represents the 
largest market in China for imported flour. About 4,500,000 to 5,000,000 barrels 
a year are required in the area, of v/hich 1,500,000 to 2,000,000 barrels are used 
in Tientsin, the remainder being distributed to Peking and other districts to the 
west of Tientsin. Domestic production in modern roller mills is only 20-50 per 
cent of the requirements for such flour. The balance of requirements consists of 
Shanghai and foreign flour. A very good relationship between the size of the 
wheat crop in the Tientsin area and imports of flour is indicated in the follov/- 
ing. table. 



Table 11 . -V/heat : Production, millings and im.ports of flour in the 
Tientsin area, 1927-28 to 1931-32 



Mark oting' 
year 



1927-28 
1923-29 

1929-30 



1930-31 



1931-32 



1932-33 



Crop 
conditions 



Bumper crop 

Practically 
a failure 

Superior to 
1928 but 
below usual: 

Very large, 
but somewhat 
less than 1927 

About 10 per 
cent less than 
1930 but qual-: 
ity superior 

Crop about 
20 per cent 
below 1931 
and of only 
medium quality: 



Production 
of Tientsin 

mills^ 

Ba rrels 

1 , 348 , 100 

532,750 

943,250 

1,810,250 

1,797,000 



1/ Includes Chinese flour other than Shanghai milled. 



: Imports Shang- 
: hai flour 
: Tientsin 


; Imports for- 
• eign flour 
: Tientsin 


Total 
imports 
1/ 


: Barrels 


Barrels 


, Barrels 


: 1,749,100 


1,838,500 


3,694,500 


: 3,800,480 


2,788,435 


6,777,428 


: 1,670,941 


2,102,522 


3,883,879 


: ■ 1,008,241 


1,387,104 


2,417,985 


: 2,511,215 


483,347 


2,994,902 


: (Decrease 
: probable) 


( Increase 
expected) : 





The considerable increase in the consumption of flour in the Tientsin 
area last year was probably duo to the increased number of troops in that section, 
and to , some extent also to -somev/hat smaller summer crops of grain. 



'.ra-77 



-35- 



Shanghai wheat and flour situation 

Tho crop of whoat in the Shanghai area is somov/hat shorter than last j^ear, 
and the crops in north China and Llanchuria arc considorahly helovif those of last 
year. Short crops in the latter regions should provide a good outlet for 
Shanghai and foreign flour. Tientsin has already purchased 125,000 "barrels of 
Australian flour to make up part of her deficiency, and may also import certain 
quantities of Australian wheat. 

Stocks of vmeat and flour on July 1 carried over into the new year at 
Shanghai were only moderate, and domestic whoat arrivals have continued small. 
Milling operations have "been reduced to 35 per cent capacity. Hills could use 
substantial c^uantities of foreign wheat hut prices of foreign wheat are too 
high relative to prices of flour in China to warrent huying. Improved huying 
depends in largo part, on greater relative strength in the domiostic flour msirket. 
During the 1931-32 season imports into Shanghai totaled about 33,000,000 
bushels which v/as the largest on record. 

Commercial shipments froia America occurred largolj'" before December. After 
that date American prices v/ere too high in relation to Australian wheat and to 
flo\ir prices in Shanghai to enable nov; business. Flood relief shipments 
however, continued during the remainder of the year. Australian v/heat, however, 
v/as considered low enough in price by Shanghai millers so that profitable 
pur- chases cc'uld be made, and considerable quantities were bought for late spring 
delivery. Only moderate am.ounts of Canadian v/heat wore taken during the year 
because Canadian prices were likewise C)ut of line witji Ai.istralia. 

Demand for Shanghai flour from south China was quite active the first 
half of the year but slackened during the last half of the year, due partly to 
Australian flour competition and also to depressed economic conditions in 
south China. Forth China was an especially good outlet lor the Shanghai mills 
which shipped record quantities of flour, milled chiefly from Australian v/heat , 



Table 12.- \7heatJ Imports into Shanghai, China, by countries of 

origin, 1924-25 to 1931-32 



oar beginning 


United 










July 1 


States 


Canada 


; Australia 


others 


: Total 




: 1,0 jC 


T ,"000 


iToco 


1,000 


r iTOOO 




■ bushels 


bushels 


bushels 


bushels 


bushel 


1924-25 . . ..' 


; 472 


: 321 






'. 830 


1925-26 . . . .. 


480 


7,402 . 


988 




; 8,870 


1926-27 .... 


1 , 722 


2,825 






4,547 


1927-28 .... 




1,R55 




• 1/" 


1,855 


1928-29 . . . .' 


634 


9,034 • 


2,077 . 


1 


: 11,746 


1929-20 .... 


. , 53 


: 1,108 




1/ 


1,161 


1930-31 . . . .! 


1,212 . 


6,795 


19,148 '• 


51 : 


27,166 


1931-32 .... 


■2,/ 11,647 


2,913 . 


22,437 . 


1,084 


38,081 



Compiled from Chinese 1 



laritime Customs. 



l/ Less than 500 bushels. 2/ Includes flood relief wheat. 



WH-77 



-26- 

Danu"be Basin Ifneat Situation During July and Augus t ll 



Harvesting was practically completed throughout the Danuhe Basin by 
the mid-die of August. Most of the 1932 wheat crop was ready for delivery 
to market "by the first part of September. The quality of this year's crop is 
generally low. High grade wheat was harvested in a number of small sections, 
but it represents a relatively small proportion of ' the crop. The largest part 
of the good quality wheat will be used for seed and exports. 

Exports from the Danube Basin during 1932-33 will probably be consider- 
ably below average. Exports to date, with the exception of those from Hungary, 
■have been below the normal movement for July and August. Total July and August 
exports from the "Basin are estimated at 2,200,000 bushels, of which 1,100,000 
bushels are estimated to be from Hungary. 

There exists a large demand and small offers for new wheat of good quality. 
Farmers are holding good wheat for seeding purposes. Delays in threshing have 
prevented farmers from delivering a large volume of wheat to markets. It is 
also probable that farmers are expecting higher prices later in the season. 
In HMngar:/ deliveries of wheat from farms are expected to increase after the 
threshing of both wheat and rye is completed, and in the other countries of the 
Danube Basin after corn is harvested and the fall seeding of wheat is completed. 

Prices on all Danube Basin markets shov/ed a continuous rise fi-om the 
middle of July to the middle of Au^ast, and offers ha,ve been small. The aver- 
age price increase during the period for the four most important Danube Basin 
markets was about 18 per cent above the prices for the week ended July 16. 
The increase was largest in Rumania with a 36 per cent rise, followed by 
Bulgaria with 24 per cent, Hungary with 8 per cent, and Yugoslavia with a 5 
per cent increase. 

Present prospects are favorable for marketing this year's relatively small 
wheat surplus of the Danube Basin at prices somewhat above a world market parity 
through the means of existing commercial agreements with importing countries. 
Hungary has already begun the delivery of a 1,500,000 bushel export-sale to 
Germany, which was contracted to be delivered during August and September, with 
a 19 cents per bushel reduction in import duty. As a compensation, the 
Hungarian Government has agreed to reduce the import duty on German chemicals. 

Governments in a:ll of the Danube Basin countries are maJcing purchases 
of high grade wheat for distribution as seed. 

Government wheat monopolies have been discontinued. The monopolies in 
Bulgaria and Yugoslavia are, abolished,, and the Governmen.ts. of these two coun- 
tries will only make stabilization purchases., whenever prices fall to low levels. 
Such action, as a result of price decline is very improbable for the 1932-33 
marketing year, because of relatively small 1932 crops.: In Hungary, the grain 
ticket system is to be" continued, and in addition the Government is to control 
the voliur.e of exports from the country. Exporters mst obtain a Government 
permit for each parcel of wheat that they wish to send abroad. This action 
has been tcken in order to prevent a rapid movement of the Hungarian surplus 
at lov/ prices. 

ll Based on report of Assist.ant Agricultural Commissioner J. Bernard Gibbs, 
Belgrade, Yugoslavia, August 22, 1932. 



V/H-77 



-21- 



It is expected that tlie v/hea-t trade in Rumania will remain completely 
free of CrOvernmont intervention during the 1932-33 marketing year. Hov/ever, 
there- is some indication that the Government plans to malie stabilization 
purchases in case the internal price of v/heat should fall to low levels. 



Tahle 15,- United States: I^nports and exports of wheat including flour, 

July - August 1931 and 1932 



Item 



EXPORTS: 

Wheat 

Flour in terms, of wheat 
Total . , 
II.PORTS: (July only) 

^u^neat 

Floiir in terms of wheat 
Total . . 

I-IET EXPORTS: 

Viheat 

Flovir in terms of wheat 
Total . . 







: 1, COO -hushels 


: 1,000 "bushels 


: 19,005 


■ 6,282 


: 7,312 


: ■ 2,860 


25,317 


9,142 


1,644 


1,027 


1/ 


1,/ 


1,644 : 


1,027 


17,361 : 


5,255 


7,312 : 


2,860 


24,673 : 


8,115 



Compiled from official sources, 
l/ Less than 500. 



Tc-.hle 14.- Y/lieat including flour: Exports from principal exporting 
countries, June, July and August, 1931 and 1932 



Comitry 


: June 


:" ' July 




: Au. 






1931 


: 1932 


: 1931 


: 1932 


"iWl 


\ 1932 '"1/ 




1,000 


: 1,000 


1,000 


: 1,000 


1,000 


1,000 




; bushels 


, bushels 


: bushels 


bushels 


; bushels 


. bushels 




12,007 


, 8,086 


17,454 


: 4,841 . 


11,919 


: 4,301 




. 22,990 


18,426 i 


14,162 


: 21,629 . 


14,259 


22,050 


Argentina 


: 16,658 : 


8,919 


. 7,738 


8,771 


6,700 : 


5,112 


Sritish India ; 


771 ; 


2/ 138 : 


447 




507 


0 




16,789 : 


1^2,615 


12,376 


1/7,672 : 


7,963 • 


4,889 




1,008 : 


0 : 


1,448 • 


0 : 


17,936 : 


144 


Danube and Bulgaria l/ : 


1,120 


984 : 


744 . 


208 : 


504 : 


0 




71,343 : 


49,169 : 


54,369 : 


43,121 : 


59,788 1 


34,496 



Compiled from 0 f ficTaX *and t rirde'~s'o ur c oT." 
_!_/ Preliminary. 
2/ Sea trade only. 



F-T-77 



-28- 



Tatle 15.- United States i Exports of wheat and wheat including flour, 

liv vreeks, 1931-32 and 1932-33 



Date 



1931-32 



Wheat 

1 9 2 "~ 0 13 



Vi/heat flour 



1931-32 





: 1,000 


: ■ 1,000" 


:'T,0"0'0 


* 1,000 


: T,000 


1,000 




. husliels 


; hushols 


; Toarrels 


barrels 


: "bushels 


bushels 


July 2 -July 30 


12,731 


1,952 


1,005 


206 


. 17,455 


2,931 


\7eek ended 














Aug. 6 ... 


1,926 i 


781 ■ : 


145 : 


25 


2,612 


899 


13 . . . . 


1,100 . 


855 : 


171 : 


78 


1,904 


1,202 


20 . . . : 


2,184 : 


705 ! 


95 


79 


2,630 : 


1,077 


27 . . . : 


1,064 : 


752 : 


139 : 


79 : 


1,717 


1,12? 


Sept. 3 . . . : 


1,536 : 


757 : 


98 : 


50 : 


1,997 . 


1,002 



1932-33 



ulieat including flour 



1931-32 



Compiled from weekly report of Department of ComrAerce. 



1932-33 



Table 16.- \'Ihea.t including flour: Shipments from principal exporting 
regions, specified dates, 1931-32 and 1932-33 



Date 


Argentina 


Australia 


! Danube 




: North Air.erica 


1931-32:,1932-33 


rr9Tr-3¥rr932'-5'3 


:"l9"31-32':l'S'52- 


35 


: 1931-32: 


1932-33 






1,000 


: 1,000 


: 1,000 : 


1,000 


:1,000 :1,000 




:1,000 : 


1 , 000 






bushels 


.bushels 


; bushel s : 


bushels 


; bushels: bushels 


; bushels: 


bushels 


July 2- 


July 30 


9,360: 


3, 264 


15,780: 


7,672 


744: 2 


06: 


2 7,048: 


22,896 


Y/eek ended 


















Aug . 5 


• • • • • 


1 , 240 


455. 


2,148= 


2 , 328 


0: 


0 


7,888: 


4,472 


13 




1,148 


572 


. 1,576: 


1,104: 


96: 


0. 


4,296: 


4,880 


20 




1,348 


860: 


2,100: 


540 


144: 


0: 


5,546: 


4,352 


27 




1,636 


1,124. 


1,772: 


917 


254: 


0 


5,520: 


4,798 


Sept .3 




1,912 


575. 


2,056: 


929 


912: 


0 


5,072: 

• 
• 

• 


7,741 



Compiled from official and trade sources. 



''^^^-77 COlrTENTS PAGE 

1 - S-aminary 1 _ 3 

2 - Crop Prospects 3 - 6 

3 - Wheat Prices 6 - 10 

4 - The Supply aiid Distribution of Wheat by Classes in the U.S. . . 11 - i4 

5 - The Continental European Wheat Market Situation During August .15 - 22 

6 - A Review of the V/heat Situation in China 22 - 25 

7 - Dcaiube Easin ¥heat Situation During July and Augiast 26 - 28 

TABLE 

1 - VJlieat: Production in specified countries 4 

2 - 'Fjieat: Price per bushel at opocified markets 8 

3 - 'fjieat: Average price per bushel of parcels of specified 

descriptions 9 

4 - ifheat: Closing price of September futures 10 

5 - v/heat: Weighted average cash price at stated markets 10 

6 - Wheat: Price per bushel at specified continental European markets 10 

7 - Supply and distribution of wheat by clt-rsscs in the United Sta,tes 12 

8 - United Sto.tes wheat exports by classes • 14 

9 - ^meat production by classes for the Unit 

10 - Germany: Price per bushel of domestic wheat 3Jid rye at 

specified markets 16 

11 - /'Pneat: Production, millings and imports of flour in the 

Tientsin area 24 

12 - Wheat: Imports into Shanghai, China, by countries of origin . 25 

13 - United States: Imports and exports of wheat including flour. . 27 

14 - v'heat including flour: Exports from principal exporting 

countries 27 

15 - United States: Exports of wheat mid wheat including flour, by 

weeks 28 

16 - Jheat including flour: Shi]Dments from principal exporting 

regions 28 



y2,F UNITED STA'TSS DSPAilTLSHT OF A&RICULTURS 

Bureau of Agricultural Econoiaios 
Washington 



L 1 B A R 

R E C ti 1 V E D 

^ NOV ii - '33?. 



October ZZ, 

JCRLD Y;hEAT P1103PI;CTS I : 

Sumnar;/ 

SeptPriber and early October witnessed a rise in world wheat shipraents 
to levels '.nore nearly corresporidin,^; to those of the })ast 2 years. In recent 
weeks total world sniprnents have avora^.;ed 13,000,000 bushels weekly coiupared 
with an £LVera<e:e level of around 8,000,000 bushels weekly during A-o^^ust. Tlie 
increase in ship-..ients nas been accompanied by a gradual decline in Liverpool 
prices. 

Tiiouj/h wheat shir.Taents have increased in recent weelcs they are still 
below the level of the past 2 years. Also the seasonal increase in ship- 
ments which usually ,,ets under way early in Au^;ast was, this year, about a 
month later than usual. The low level of shipments and the lateness of the 
increase arc both apparently due largely to the neavy wheat production of 
the iu.portin^, countries of western cUrope combined with the policy of import 
restrictions which most of these countries are following. 

Present productioii estimates of 38 l-Iorthern Heirdsphc^re coiuitrios total 
3,208,000,000 bushels, which is approximately 45,000,000 bushels larg>.r than 
the estimates for tnese sair.e co-antries last year. Though reliable estimates 
for the Southern Hemisphere production are not yet available, present indica- 
tions are for a crop about the same or a little iar-;:,er than that of 1951-32. 
Early indicetions suggest iz\ incre-ise in the Australian crop, .uid a somewhat 
smaller crop in Argentina. The iricrease of produ-.-.tion indicated for the 
world, outsid<-; Pussio, and China, will apparently littl-;; more than offset 
the decrease in world carry-over (including, rou^n estimates of j^^urop.:an stocks) 
as of Jul^^ 1. It is likely-, however, that the total decrease in Sii.ip..:«:nts 



WH-7 8 -2^ - - ■• ■ _ ; 

from &assia during 1332-33. ,¥'111 somewhct rao re than offset thu increase in 

supplies now available in the rest of the world. Total supplies of wheat avail- 
able to the world, outside Russia r-uid China, now appear likely to be but little 
sraaller than in 1S31-32. 

vJhile total supplies available to the world, outside Russir and China, 
maj not be greatly different than those of last year, the different distri- 
bution of the crop will profo^ojidly effect international trrdu in wheat. Crops 
of the exporting countries of Europe, are irrach smaller thari in 1931, but total 
E'aropean production is rou^j'hly 75,000,000 bushels lar^^er. The lar^'e supplies 
in tne importing countries may be expected to result in smaller iraoorts, in 
view of the continued drastic restrictions on iraoortr.tion and millin:. of 
forei^ai wheot. Since only small surplus supplies of milling wheat o.ppear to 
be available in the Danube Bn.sin, exports from there are expected to be nr.ch 
smaller than last year. Supplies in ilorth Ai^ierica, South America and 
Australia continue to be an:^plc and prospects are that exports from tnese regions 
may not be greatly different in 1932-33 than they were in 1931-32. , 

'H'ius far this season, "/orld shipments of wheat and flour from the I 
principal erroorting co"antries he,ve been m:vCh sm.aller than during, the correspond- 
in;-, period last year. Total shipm.ents from, the first of July through the 
first week of October np,ve ojaounted to aoproxirar.tely 137,000,000 bushels this 
year compared with 202,000,000 busr^cls durin._, the corresponding period of last 
year. I'lost of the decrease has been in shipments fi'om Russia nnd countries 
of the lower Dmube Basin. Argentine r-iid -fi-ustraiiDii shipments nnve also been 
running somewhat below the levels of last year, while North Americ-n shioments 
have bcon about the soane o.s Last year. Present prospects are that Soutnern 
Hemisphere shipments will continue small until the new ci^o;.. in Australia 
begins coming to mo,rket in December, and that Russian ai^d Doiiulsicu: shipments 
will continue mach smaller th-n a year ago. 



im-7Q -3- . 

Althou£,li totr.l Horth Americrji shipments hcvc been about the s.?.me as Ic.st 

yc-^.r, exports from the United States since the first of July have been rauch 

smaller. Totrl exports of wh-e3,t as grain from July 1 to October 8 of this 

year have amounted to about 9,500,000 bushels compared v/ith 33,700,000 bushels 

during the corres-oonding period last year. :Exports of flour from the United 

States have also been smaller, ajnountin^ to. about 1,000,000 b;.irrels this 

year compared v/ith 2,500,000 • la.st year. These flour ex-^orts are the equivalent 

of about 4,700,000 ojad 10,200,000 bushels respectively. 

During early September the spr';ad betwo-ir. Chicago ::iid Liverpool i.xtures 

ranged between 54 and 9-4 cents per bushel, based on the difference bctv7L,en 

the closin^ c^-ao tr.tions of September futures' at Chico..._^o and' October futures at 

Liverpool. The spread between the December futures rt the two markets, 

hov/evor, was much smaller, ranging from 7/8 cents to 5^ cents per bushel 

during the snne period. On October 4, when December futures at Chicat,o were 

at their higiiest level for the first 10 days of that month, they closed only 

2-^ cents per bushel lower than Liverpool, wnereas on October 10 they w^re 

6-5/8 cents per bushel below Liverpool. TViis spread is about sufficient 

to allow a fairly free movement of wheat for export. 

vTorld Wheat Production 

Data nov/ available do not show cxiy import;uit changes in the estimates 
of Jorthern Hemisphere production as compare^- with those published in Septem- 
ber except for Spain csid Italy.- The estimate of the Spanish crop has been 
increased from 161,449,000 bushels to 180,707,000 bushels and the estimate 
of the Italirji crop has been increased from 265,912,000 bushels to 276,126,000 
bushels. 

Tile 1932 wheat production i.. the United States is now estimated at 
711 ,7'-^7 ,000 bushels, a reduction of 2,831,000 bushels from the September 
forecast and compares with 894,204,000 bushels harvested in 1931. 

The ofiicial estimate of the Canadian crop remains at 457,150,000 
bushels as estimated on Septemiber 10. Receipts of v;hea,t at country'- elevo.tors 
from August 1 to September 23 wer^ 114,000,000 bushels or 24 per cent of the 
total production as compared with 52,000,0'j0 bushels or 17 per cent of the 
crop durin^; the sai^ae period last year. Exports of Canadian wheat and flour 
during the first 2 months of the present crop year y/ere over 48,000,000 bushels 
and exceeded those for the corresponding months of last season by about 55 
Tier nnnt . 



ViH-78 



-4- 



To.blo l/~:vmo.a-fc{ Production, 1929-30 to 1932-33 



Country 


1929-30 ' 


1950-31 ; 


1931-32 ; 


1932-33 


United States.... 


1,000 : 
hushels : 

812,573 : 
304,520 ; 
ll-,333 


1,000 : 
■. "bushels ,■ ■ : 

858,160 : 
420,672 : 
, 11_^46 : 


1,000 : 
"bushels ; 

QQ /I or\A 
304,144 : 
16,226 


1,000 

bushels 

71 1 707 
467,150 
8.921 




n TOO A ^ c 

1 , 12b , 42d 


-1 O Q C> 7 R 


1 ?i A S74 


1.187 ,77 8 


iMortn A-L rica [o) . 


, 1,446,.314 
i<d<d , b4>3 

: 376,400 


1,358,892 
, 448,741 


. 1,431,615 
115 680 
: 400,549 


: 1,507,180 
: 122 , 347 
: 390,226 


Total, 38 coun- 


: 3,073,783 


: 3,201,850 


: ■ -3,162,418 ' 


:. 3,207,533 


Estimated iT.Hemis 
total e::clud- 
ing Russia 
aiid China. . . . 


: • 3,194,000 


: 3,311,000 


: 3,292,000 




; 126,885 


: 213,594 


: 189,653 


: 200,000 



Compiled from official sources 

Southern Hemisphere 

• . Early prospects s-UBsSst an increase in the Australian wheat crop over 
that of 1931-32, partially offset by a decrease in Argentina, but in both cases ■ 
conditions during t"lie balance of the season m.ay alter the outlook materially. 

Australia ^ 

Present indications point to a'wheat harvest of 200,000,000 to 215,000,000 
bus'hels as compared with the official estimate of 189,653,000 last year. A 
provisional estimate from Australia places the new crop at 200,000,000 oushels. 

Rainfall conditions ' continue favorable to wheat growth in the principal 
grain re,:,ions of Australia and also suggest yields above the average £ind a 
"harvest larger fhsu last year, or about 205,000,000 to 215,000,000 bushels. _ 
Reports of rainfall through September, considered in relation to .past associa- 
tions between rainfall and wheat yields, suggest a probable yield this year 
between about 13 and 14 bushels to the acre, as compared witli 12.9 busnels 
last year and a 21-year average of 11.4 bushels. Since rainfall m October . 
and iTovember is also of importance, .the final estimate of yiela may var.y 
aporeciably from the amount indie o.ted here. Similar indications for last year 
based on dr.ta through September were for a yield of about 14 bushels. Dis- 
tribution of file rainfall throughout, the season so far has been better thrJi 
last year, . . . . 

There are some evidences of a larger' "narvest last year than tne amount 
officially re-oorted, and the yield may have been correspondingly Higher 
fn.an fne official report, althougn the increase in production .ao^ ^^f^® ^ 
due to increased, acreage. yield -of about .13. to 14 bu.hols on tne 1^ 585 ^00 

acres now reported soun to whoc.t for grain would give a n;-.rvoGo oi 20o,oOO,oul 

to 218,000,000 buGholc. ' [ 



WH^78 



■ \ 

-5- 



Argentiria 

Eo-rly indications point to an Argentine wheat crop somewhat below the 
226,0^0,000 bushel crop of 1931-32 in spite of an increase reported in 
sown acreasie, 

V/hcat t-crea<3e sown for the 1932-33 harvest is placed at 19,743,000 acres, 
according to the second estimate, a slight increase over the first estimate 
of 19,249,000 acres, and 14 per cent above tlie final estimate of 17,295,000 
acres sown for 1931-32, The distribution of this year's acreoge is conducive 
to increased .yields. Buenos Aires, the province ho.ving highest avera.^e yields, 
planted about 46 per cent of the total acreage reported for the country, 
corap.are^ with 43.5 per cent of. the preceding year. The pcrcentr^'o of Argentine 
wheat acrco^e included in Buenos Aires province has been increasing almost 
steadily since 1921-22 when less than 30 per cent of the total was in thrt 
province. Acreae'C ir. La ??jnpa, which has. the lowest average -yields of tno' 
more important v/heat producing provinces, v;as reduced from 8.5 per cent of 
the total last yep.r to 6.5 per cent this year, Acre:-_ge increases also occurred 
this ^-e-r.r-in Santa Fe and Cordoba, which provinces have yields -averaging 
just slightly below the -average for the country as a whole, 

■•■/eather conditions on the v;hole have apparently not been especially 
favorable to best wheat development and present conditions indicate a yield 
belo'v the average, but there is still ampl^ time for a material improvement, 
•varm temper rtures in July and mach of August have been an unfavorable factor 
in tne outlook. High temperatures in that period are reported to be conducive 
to heavy v/ecd growth, choking the wheat plants later in the season, "to undue 
early development of the wheat plants, and to locust invasion especially in 
the ITorth. This year locusts are already reported to hav^ destroyed 61§,000 
acres sown to v/heat , vvith further daiT.rg,e probable. Rainfall this season 
h;is been sli^-^tly deficient through August. ■'Reports for September show rain- 
fall above rverage and temperatures slrghtly above a.vercge for the month. 
Part of the drnage caused by unfavorable early weather conditions ma:,''. offset 
by the shift' in distribution of v.creage. A yield equal to the 11 bushel 
averr^-e for the past 27 years on the reported sov/n acreage would give a . 
harvest of 217,000,000 bushels cor.^pai^ed with 226,000,000 bushels harvested in 
1931-32. ' 

. v/heat Prices . _ • , 

Both cash rnd futures prices declined from tne early part of September 
to tne end of the' month. ' A. slight advance during, the first few days of 
October v/as not sustained. A sharp decline in futures prices beginning October 
4 brought' December futures at' Chico^o' to 48-5/8 cents a bushel on. October. 10. 
This is the lov/es't r.t which December ' futures have.' closed this season.^ The 
lov; point; in December futures' in 1931 v/as ^ 44-5/8 cents, which occurred on . 
October 5. Gash prices during this period have been more! stable th.an_ have 
futurt-s prices. The decline in c^^.sh prices from the high. point on Septem.ber 
6 to October 10 was about 6 cents' per busiiel , whereas futures prices declined 
rbout' 9-I/2 cents. At Liverpool the high point of this period v/as likewise 
reached on September 6 when December futures closed at 60-7/8 cents perbusnel. 
The decline at Liverpool from the Sthof September to the 10th of October 
was more graduLil thaii at ChiCi\go. Tlie net ajnount of ' the decline being 5-5/8 
cents rt Liverpool, v/hereas at Ci.icago it was 9-5/8 cents. On September 6 



■..TI-78 -6- 

Deccraber futures •^t Liverpool were 2-5/8 cents above Ciiicago, v/hereas on the 
lOtn of October Liverpool was 6-5/8 cents above Chicago. The decline in Liver- 
pool prices may be explained in part by an increase in world shipments, 
es;jecially from the Southern Hemisphere, which although small in volume as 
compared v;ith the corresponding period last year, exerted a relatively grert 
influence on tne Liverpool market because of the tightening of import re- 
strictions in many of the otner importing countries of Europe. The relrtively 
greater decline at Chicago was due in part to these factors vvliich. affected 
the Liverpool market, but in addition it was the result of a lessening of the 
. support of the activity in the speculative m-arket. 

Cash prices were somewhat more stable than futures during this period. 
No. 2 Hard' Winter o,t Kansas City averrged 49.7 cents per bushel on September 6. 
The decline during the following month resulted in an average of 45.3 cents 
per bushel on October 8. No. 1 Dark northern Spring at '.dnneapolis averr^^ed 
62.2 cents on September 5 aiid on October 8 was 53.7 cents per bushel. ITo. 2 
Amber Durum rt Minneapolis and No. 2 Soft Red -.■inter at St. Louis likewise 
declined during this period. The decline of the former was 4.4 cents and 
of red winter v/as 5.3 cents per bushel. 

Cash prices at Liverpool also declined during this period. For the week 
ended Septem^ber 9 No. 3 i-ipiiitob.a Northern averaged 58 cents per bushel, where- 
as the average for the week ended October 7 was 54 cents. Liost of this 
decline occurred during the last week of September. Cr.sh prices of rosafe 
for these two periods were 54 and 50 respectively. Prices of domestic wheat 
at Berlin chsjiged very little during Septemibcr and early October. Tliere v.'as 
a smoll decline of about 2 cents during the last week of September and first 
week of October, In spite of the large crop, prices were sustained during 
this period because of low stocks in mills hnnds a:id a tightening of import 
restrictions. At Paris, prices of domestic wheat continued to decline, 
reachin-, the relatively low level of $1.15 per bushel on October 7. The 
weakening of prices was largely the result of heavy mioveraents of the large 
French -wheat crop. Prices of domestic whea.t at Milan were fairly stable 
during September aiid early October. There was a 1 cent advance during the 
latter part of September from $1.49' to $1.50 per bushel. 

Table 2.- \?heat: Price per bushel at specified m,arkets, August 5, 1932- 



October 7, 1932 



iVeek : 
ended 


Kens as 
City : 
1/ . 


; Minne- 
apolis 
. 2/ . 


Winni- 
: peg • 
: Zj 


: Bueno s 
; Aires 
: 4/ 


:Liver- 

pool 
: 5/ 


; Great 
:Bri tain 
6/ 


: Berlin 
• 7/ 


• Paris 
: 7/ 


• Milan 
7/ 




: Cents 


Cents 


: C en t s 


: Gents 


C en t s 


C en t s 


Gents 


Cents 


: Cents 


Aug. 5 


46.4 


58.2 


: 45.5 


: 47.9 


57.4 


61.6 


143 


: 152 


: 135 


12 


49 . 1 . 


60,7 


: 47.5 


: 49.0 


57.1 


61.3 


: 138 


: 122 


: 139 


19 


47.2 


58.9 < 


46.0 


: 43.6 


55.5 : 


61.3 


131 : 


128 


: 139 


25 : 


47 . 4 : 


58.1 


43.7 


: 47.9 : 


55.7 


57.2 •: 


135 


133 


: 143 


Sept. 2 


49.2 : 


61.1 


: 45.6 


: 47.8 


58.8 ■ 


53.4 


134 


127 


: 147 


• 9 


: 49.1 : 


60.9 


. 46.0 


: 49.2 


60.2 • 


52 . 9 


136 


128 


149 


16 


45,8 


57.5 


43.0 


: 48.9 


59.2 : 


52.8 : 


134 : 


126 : 


149 


23 : 


48.5 


58.8 : 


42.4 


: .^7.9 ; 




52.6 : 


134 


121 


• 149 


30 : 


49.1 


58.4 


42.2 


: 47.9 






133 : 


: 119 : 


150 


Oct. 7 


47.4 


55.8 . 


41.5 


: 47.5 






132 : 


115 


150 



Prices are averages of daily prices for weeks ev.ding Frida;,' except as follows: 
Great Britain prices of home-grown wheat are averages for the week ending Saturday, 
Berlin, Paris, and i.iilan prices are we dues da;,- quotations. Prices at ./i.iuipeg, 
Buenos Aires, Liverpool, Berlin, Paris, aiid i'ailan are converted to United 
St.ates money at the current rr^,tes of cxchaiige, • 

l/ No. 2 H-rd V/inter. 2/ No.l Dark Northern Spring. 3/ No . 3- ;.^r,ni toba Northern. 

4/ Near futures. 5/ All sales of imported parcels. 6/ Hor.e-grov/n wncat in 

Ei-"'ln:arl V.'a.les. 7 1 Domr;r;tic. 



'm~78 -7- 

Tr.ble 3,- Wher.t: Closing price of Eeceir.ber futures 



Date 


' Chicago 


' Kansr.s 


City 


liiniic 


cpo 11 s' 


.'-'innipeg 1/ 


Livcrpooll/ 


B;ieno s 
Aires 2 / 




1931 


1932 




1931: 




1932 


1931 




: .1932; 


_.J__931_ 


1932 


1931 


: 1932 


. 1931: 1932 




C en t s 


: C en t s 


Cents : 


Cents 


Cents 


: Cents 


Cents 


Ceiits 


■ Cants 


Cents 


C en t s : C en t s 


July 18)3/ 58 


oU 


: 51 : 


52 


64 


: 59 


Di ■ ; 


00 


b'± 


: bi 


4/45 : 4/ 50 


Sept. 16) 


49 


: 50 


41 : 


44 


: 51 


: 48 


: 53 


48 • 


56 


• 53 


■4/38 :4/45 


17 : 


49 


53 


•xo : 


,1 n 
'x r 


oO 


: 02 ' 


51 • 


48 


58 


: 56 


'A t p:, /' 'c 

:c)/ib 


24 


4^8 : 


55 • 


41 : 


48 


: 61 


: 53 


51 < 


48 


54 


57 


-iO :5/46 


Oct. 1 




54 


38 : 


48 


58 


: 52 : 


47 


47 


52 


56 


39 :5/45 


8 


50 


• 50 


43 : 


44 


. 62 


: 50 : 


50 


• 46 


55 


: ■ 56 


44 :5/44 



1/ Conversions at noon buyin.j rate cf exchaiise; Septenber 19, 1931 to date. 

2/ Prices are of day previous to other prices. 

3/ Hi.i;h and low for period (July 18-3epter;Dor 16, 1932) (July 20-3cpterabor 18,1931). 

4/ Septcir.bcr end October futures. 5/ February futures. 



Taole 4.- vmoat: v/eighted average cash price at stated r.iarkets 





:A11 cl 


asses 


No. 2 : 


I'.o, 


1 


1-10.2 


No. 2 


./c stern 


eek 


raid £;rades 


liard iVinter: Dk. 11. Spring- 


Aj'.iber 


Lur-om 


; Red V/inter 


v/hite 


ended 


six iTiarkets 


Kansas City: 


Hinneapoli s 


Minneapolis 


St. Louis 


•Seattle l/ 




: 1951: 


1932 


1931 


1932: 


1931 


1932 


1931 


: 1932 


,J:,"31 


1932 


: 1931 


. 1932 


July 15)^ 


: Cents: 


Cents 


■ Cents 


: C en t s : 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


: Cer, ts 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


^ 56 : 


57 


45 


49 : 


71 


: 62 


7G 


62 


49 


56 • 


57 


: 58 


Sept. 9)-' 


45 : 


47 


: 41 


44 : 


62 


57 


: 58 


: 52 : 


45 


47 


48 


50 


16 


59 : 


53 


45 


46 : 


75 


58 


74 


52 


48 


52 


50 


52 


23 


55 : 


56 


43 


49 : 


69 


59 


73 


: 52 


4^7 


53 


52 


. 52 


30 


: 53 : 


55 : 


43 


4-9 : 


68 


: 58 


71 


54 


47 


• 53- 


53 


: 54 


Oct. 7 


: 53 : 


55 


■ 42 


: 47 : 


69 • 


55 


72 


54 . 


46 


52 


• 53 • 





1/ V/eekly average, of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked 30 days delivery. 
2/ High cuid low for period (July 15-Septenber 9, 1932) (July 17-Septeraber 11, 1931). 



Table 5.-^ V/heo.t: Price per bushel o.t specified continental European 

markets 



• '__ Rotterdaia : Berlin : Paris ; hilaji 

Date ' Hmgo : Hard : honi- : Ar.^eii- : Aus- : 

: : '-/inter : toba : tina : trail a : Domestic 

• : No. 2 ; No. 3 : 1/ ^_2/ ::__ 

: : Cents : Cents : Cents : Cen ts : Cents : Cents : Cents 

1931 3/ : High : - : _ : 70 : 78 : 190 : 20-. : 170 

: Low . : _ ; _ ; 51 :, 54 : 120 : 16-. : 130 

1932 5j' : High 66 : 75 : 60 : 66 : 179 : 186 : 175 

: Low : 53 : 51 : 49 : 53 : 132 : 115 : 135 

Sept. 22 : : 50 : 56 . : 56 : 63 : 134 : 121 : 149 

29 : : 58 : 56 : 56 : 63 : 134 : 119 : 150 

Oct. 6 ; : 59 ; 55 : 55 : 63 : 132 : 115 : 150 



Prices at Berlin, Paris aaid i.'ilan are of day previous to ot-ier prices. Prices 
converted as follows: 1931 ct par; 1932 at current rates of exchange to March 18; 
subsequently .-t par excepting i'lilan Wwich has been converted at current rates. 
1/ Barusso. 2/ J.A.Q,. 3/ For the period January to date. 



WH-78 



-S- 



TalDle 6.- V/heat: /.vera.^e price per 'bushel of parcels of specifiei 
descriptions,, c.i.f. at 'Liverpool, ■■specif iod periods 

1931-1932 ; 



ITo, ■ 3 Manitoba For them 




1952 
Cent s 

.62 
'64 

^ r 

DO 

65 
62 
55 
54 
58 



53 
53 
52 
■53 
57 
57 
59 
58 
57 
59 
60 
58 



Rosaf e 



1931 
Cents 

61 
63 
61 
64 
65 
61 
57 
55 
54 



60 

58 

56 

57 

57' 

54 

55 

56 . 

55 

55 

54 

54 

52 

51 

50 



1932 
Cents 

52 
. 55 
57 
57 
59 
55' 
54 
57 



54 
53 
53 
54 
55 
55 
58 
58 
57 
58 
59 
59 



Gorapiled from Broomhall's Corn 'Trade llews. 



Average Wheat Supplies and Per Capita Disappearance in Various 

Countries 1/ ' 

For most countries indications of human consiimption ' of wheat per capita 
must he hased upon estiiviatos of product io:;i, exports and imports and allev/ancos 
for seed. Such f igures : are suhjoct to more or less error due to discrepancies 
caused hy variations in carry-over, and in amoxmts used for feed and other 
non-human consumption as well as : the us\ial errors of estimate, \7hen avQra5,es ( 
over a period of years are considered, the variations in stocks can visviallj'" he 
considered as ©f minor i.aportance , Used other than for hiuiian consuir-pt ion may 
in some periods he of considerable Inoortanco , and for most countr^-cs, no 
supplementary ini'ormation is available to indicate how much is used for such 
puj'poses. ^ Any consideration of wheat consunption- hased on production, trade and_ 
\l' Prepared" hy Hiss Lila K. Thompson and lii s s . imiia' Sullivan of the Uivisioii of 
Statistical and Historical Research. 



:/ii-78 



-9- 



seed requirements should be rai:;do with those li-.iitations in raind. V.Tiile they 
restrict the accuracy' :ind usefulness of the estimates, the"" still leave a "basis 
for interesting comparisons. 

In the United States, Canada, Argentina and Australia, the four important 
non-2uropean wheat surplus producing countries, apparent domestic disappearance 
in the 5 years 192o-27 to 1950-31 has ranged from 5.1 "bushels per capita in the 
United States, and 5.9 in Argentina, to 7.2 in Australia and to 10.1 in Canada 
as shov/n in Ta"ble 7 . In these countries plentiful wheat supplies have tended 
to result in increased use for food and a piling up of stocks. For all four of 
these countries, fortunatel;% there are statistics of flour railling and flour 
trade or siiviilar estimates to indicate more closel/ t"ne amount actually tis3d for 
human food. Those additional statistics show human cons^'ompt ion to be only about 
4.2 bushels per capita in the United ►states and Canada, 5.0 bushels in Australia 
and 5.2 bushels in Argentina. See Table 7 . In Canada feed and waste have 
apparexitly taken nearly as much wheat as human consumption and there has also 
been a heavy piling up of stocks in the past 5 yetrs. 

It is probable thc-.t the estimates of disappear<unce, disregarding stocks and 
feeding, give a better idea of human consumption in Europe than in the non- 
European surplus producing countries. Iji European v;he at deficit countries where 
supplies are partially controlled through imports it is probable that carry-over 
are of less importance compared to total supplies than in the exporting countries. 
Amounts fed to livestoc'K are also probably less than in the ^nited States and 
Canada, although feeding of more or less domestic poor L_uality wheat is reported 
in several of the western European countries, .and probabl;?- small amounts are fed 
in all of western Europe. 

Apparent disappearance in nine coui.tr ies of western Europe l/avcraged 5.3 
bushels per capita in the 5 years 1925-27 to 1930-31 compared with~"an average 
disappearance of 5,6 bushels in the four non-European exporters and a weighted 
average probable human consumption of about 4.3 bushels in the four countries. 
France and Italy show especially large disappearance, France with 7.2 bushels per 
capita coad Italy 6.8. In both cases, cjid especially Italy, consumption in the 
form of macaroni products helps to increase the total human use of w'neat above 
the avera-,e in most countries. In seven countries cf southeastern Europe 2/, 
including four surplus-producers, domestic disappearance other than for seed! 
averaged 4.7 bushels per capita, and in eight countries of northeastern Europe s/, 
mostly deficit countries, the average disappearance v/as onl^' 2,5 bushels per 
capita. In most of these northeastner countries rye is a more importcjit crop 
than w'neat and is used more comr.ionly for bread than in t'.ie v/estern coujitrios. In 
the southeastern countries corn is used as well as wheat ior food. 

Russian figures available indicate a domestic disappearance of 4.2 bushels 
per capita, somewhat less than the avera -e in the other exporting countries of 
southeastern Europe, but considerably more than in the deficit countries of north- 
eastern Europe. This figure is perhaps subject to question. There have been 
reports from t iviO to time of bread shortage especially in consuming regions, yet 
when allowance is made for consximption of rye bread also, these figures would tend 
to _indicate a comparatively large supply of bread grains for domestic use. 
if "t^nitcd Kingdo'm,'*lfis'h FrcV *S*t"to , Delimai'k, 3eTg^^ 

and ST7itzor land, average computed by dividing total disappearance for the nine 
coujitries by total population. 

2/ Austria, CzGchoslovakia,Hungary, Yugoslavia, Greece, Bulgaria and Rumania, 
^3/ Germany, Norv/ay, Sweden, Poland, i^ithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland. 



■Apparent dis appear taice in four North i^.frican comitries £.vera;:9s S.3 bushels ' 
per capita. In India und Japan, ^ooth important rice consu:nin£ countries, wheat 
disa-ope.rance is less than a hushel per capita. in China recent estimates of 

averar-e Production, while suhject to considerahle riarcin of error, are more 
comprehensive than most earlier estiniates and orohahly give the hest picture 
availahle of the crop situation there. These estirAates indicate a disappearance , 
of ahout 2 hushels per capita, more than doahle that of Japan. The larger figure 
seems reasonahle since all of north China is a wheat cons^aining region, ^-Sing 
comparatively little rice, whereas iA Japan rice is an important article of diet 
throughOLit practically all of the country. 

The estimates of disappearance per capita for the period 1926-E7 to 1S30-31 
considered in connection with similar esti.r.ates for the period 1921-22 to ly.o-^o 
tend to give a more stahle picture of actual consuj-iption. But changes m 
reported -er caoita disappearance cannot he considered as necessarily reflecting 
a change in the%vheat consuming hahits of the people. In addition to _ variat ions 
already mentioned d\ie to differences in amount fed and in stochs, ^ variao loas m 
per capita disappearance in some cases m.ay he due to differences m the 
T)or,ulation hase. The estimates show apparent increases in disappearance for nearj 
all countries reported for hoth periods except the United -ingdom, France, opam 
and Italy in v^urope a.ad Algeria, Brazil, India and Japan of the non-European 
countries. 

Supplementary statistics for the United States indicate that there has not 
heen a corres-oonding increase in human conscription in this country, the increase 
in disaooeurance heing accounted for largely hy increased feeding and 1>he piling 
up of stoc^cs. An exact com;oarison cannot he made due to laclc of complete 
fipures on stocks in the earlier period and to variations in amounts oi ilour 
ground in mills not reoorting. Disappearance of flour as estimatodfrom_mill 
^rindin^s, corrected to make allowaiice for grinding in mills not reporuing, irom 
net exoorts and from incomplete, date of carry-over, amounted to 4.3 hushols m 
terms of wheat ^^er capita in the period 1923-24 to 1926-27 -compaa^ed with 4.2 
hushels per capita similorly computed for the 5 years 192/-26 to 1.31-^-. • 

The Food Research Institute ostimatod that not mill • grind ings domestically 
retained in the United States .for the 5^ years 1921-22 to 1925-26 averaged 
476, 000,000 hushels, or 4.3 hushels per capita, and 502,00.0,000 or 4.2 ousn.ls p.r 
caTDita in the next 5 years. Estimates of flotir disappcarcuico allowing lor 
estimated stocks at the hegiiming and end of the period reported in Russell s 
Commercial Review, when converted in terms of wheat, 'show 4.75 per capioa ior 
1921-22 to 1925-26 compared with 4.45 the next 5 years. • ' 

In Canada reoorts of flour ground less net exports, regardless ' of stocks 
and apparently malcing no allowance ior flour in mills not^reported ^f^^^^^ 
a por^capitu disappearance in terms of wheat, decrc...sing from 4.5 hushols per 
ca-oita arumally in the period 1921-22 to 1925-26 to 4.2 bushels in .he next 
5"ve::.rp. Similar figures for i.rgcntina show an increase fr'om 4./ to i 
hushels. /Australian official figures similarly computed showed a disappearance 
. of "5.0 hushels in hoth periods. 

I'l Europe whore feeding of wheat is less import .ait than in the United 
Stctes a..d Canada, and especiall.; m European importing countries wherc s.ocks 
are Prohahly small, the increase shovm in .wheat disoiopcarance is more xi.cel. to 
reflect' an increase in hu:nan wheat consui-aption. In the first par- Ox .he 
ec-rlier period Eu.ropeui farm production was still reduced as a resal. oi .he 



-11- 



v/or].d war, and consumption consequently resti'icted. In eastern Euroioe where there 
ma;- have been a shift from rye to 'jvheat consur..pt ion there is iui'ther basis for 
s-upposlnr-, there has been an actual increase iii h^unan consumption of wheaU 



Table 7.- V/lieat* Production, distribution and amounts available for 
human consumption, 'averages for specified seasons 1^/ 







"^nit~ed""~ 


; Canada • 


Argent ina 


J Australia 






States 


: 1926-27 : 


1926-27 


: 1925-25 




Item 


1926-27 to 


: to : 


to 


: to 






1930-51 


: 1930-'j1 •: 


1930-51 


J 1929-30 


- 


— .... — . 


"i','oo'o" 


T 1 ,'OC 0 ' ■ 


' 'l , o'oo" 


T "■■i,o"o"o"" 






bushels 


: bashels : 


bushels 


' bushels 




Supply 










Carry-over 


beginning of season . 


. 107,077 


75,152 


21,494 


5,900 






B61 OOn 


• 435,744 ! 


251, 257 


143, 539 






16,491 


: 769 






Total 




•1,054,575 


: 511,655 


272,751 


• 147,439 




Distribution 














: 85,350 


: 41,689 


: 23,375 


: 13,007 






503,800 


: . 40,556 


: 56,784 


: 31,323 


Feed and v/j 




69,126 


• 36,653 


6,586 


: 1,439 






• 177,779 


: 295,663 


=2/158, 319 


:_2/'95, 770 


Carry-over 


end of season . . . . 


: 228,021. 


; 95,P04 


1.7,687 


: 5,900 






[Thousands 


5 Thousands 


;Tho\isand3 


: Thousands 






. 120,689 


9,660 


: 10,905 


: 6,218 






: Bushels 


' Bushels 


; Bushels 


Bushels 


Food per capita 


4.2 


: 4 • 2 


: 5.2 


: 5.0 



CornpTl'e'd ~&s ~folio^7P' '^nite'd "sTate's > ''RQSorCid'lxi'Vae Bureau cf Agricultural 
Economics. Canada: Data on carrj/'-over , production, seed and population from 
Llonthly Bulletin of Agricultural., Statistics. Trade statistics compiled from the 
Monthly Trade of Canada. Estimate of food derived from data on floiir production 
and exports published in Llonthly Review of the "i/lieat Situation, July 12, 1932. 
Argentina: Reports of the Ilinistry of j.r^riculture . Australia: Data on carry-over 
compiled from reports of the International Institute of Agric^olture ; trade and 
production from the Quarterly Summary of -Australian S.tatistics, food cons urript ion 
from the Official Yearbook of Australia, 1928 and 1931. 

l/ Beginning July 1 in the United States, August 1 in Canada, and January 1 
in Argentina and Australia. For Argentina the figiares are for the calendar 
years 1926-1930, and for Australia 1925-1929. 

'S/ . Trade ■ for calendar years, v/herea-s trade as shown in Table 8 is for ye:.rs 
;"oeginning_ July 1. ^ 



l.TI-78 



CO 






CD 






. I 














-I 










I—* 






Q 






o 








CT- 




t:^ 


, — 1 




CD 






■H 


c 




^) 


-p 




•H 








[>- 




CD 


w 






1 




CO 








w 




f4 


CT- 




•H 


1—1 




CD 


CQ 




O 


CD 




p; 


hD 




o3 


Rj 




C_j 
M 


H 






(V) 




(D 


[> 










Ph 












C/J 






■H 






t1 


•H 












oj 




•H 






-P 






CQ 


f, 

ri 


w 


0 




1 


tn 


P, 


lO 


o 




0:! 




0 


(Jl 






1 ) 




rj 




Q 




Q 






-p 




cd 




CO 


CD 




CD 




(XI 


o 


Ph 


1 




d 






CO 




, — 1 


■H 


CFS 


cd 




r— 1 




















(D 


cd 




rH 








, — I 




H 


L J 






1 






(\ 






L<J 






Qi 




Q 


1 1 




•H 






-P 






C 


-P 




;=i 












0 


W 




c , 

rH 


1 




p. 








CV! 




. 1 














CD 

f.'.r 












^1 






<D 






> 











I 

CO 



EH 



•p 



l-P 





•* 










1 










;j 


0 








Pi 


•H 








0 










P^ 


cd 


























•H 






m 


CD 






r-\ 


CD 


CD 






iH 


'/J 




CD 


-P 


Cd 


0 


• 




Pi 




Ph rH 


•H 


^3 






0 


CO 




0 






+^ 








CD 




H 




1 

fH 






cd 




•H 






-p 


0) 








0 


CD 




CD 


i 


CTj 


CD 
^1 





1-^ 

CD 



cr> ' 

rH 

CO 

-I 

o i 



; w 

O rH 

, O CD 
O ^ 

' - tj) 
rH 



O cr. 

O H 

O CD^ 

rH ''Q 




CO 

e « 



H H 

o in 

H 



o o-> 

O CO 
05 o 



w o 

00 CO 



o 

^ CO 
•-Ji 00 



o 

!>- CO 



a> o 
to 10 



rH O 

Cji C35 
CO 

H «D 





1 






P 


P ' 




00 


LO 


CO 




CD 












rH 


rH 


CC 










0) 




CD 


0) 


W 


w 








H 






.0 








-p 


cn 


•H 




+^ 






To 




rH 




^l 




r-3 


(L 


CD 


rH 






'X) 




cd 


p! 


rH 


rH 


c! 




.0 




rH 


-s 


CD 


■H 




1 1 














>-> 


'>D 




•I" 






























CO 




































i/) 




0 






1 










rH 


















1 




10 


rH 








0 










to 




1 






■H 












CO 






0 


•P 














I 




in 
















1 




Ph 

















o 
o 



-p 



o 



-12- 

CO C-.l LO 5C 0-. 'X) •n," ^' rH lO C' CO 'cf* O <^ 'n.'^ CO 

Lf* ^ C-- 'Sj to t?"; to ---^ CO LO Cj W CVi CO' rH H iH 



O- C- CO C 
• • • • 

LO «D LO O 



H CO O CT- 

Oi liJ O'i 

•X) 0 - o-^ 

lO' W CO [> 



L •• W to OJ W 
• • • • • 

■vf t>- UO tC LO 



O LO 



C- CO U-j GO O 

K W W 

O UO. rH O 

■ O r- t CO rH 

^ N 



CO H 
00 CO 
tC .-^H 

rH 



^1.. 

tc £0 CO CTi CO a) 00 to c'. tio co 
• •••••••••• 

IC ^ 'lO -sfi CvJ W CO rH (Xi CO 



CO O CO CO rH (M to- ^ t> C CO 

00 O to 'lD to CO O O r-H CO 

LO -^^1 H tC O) CVi D rH O CO^ CO^ 

'X) t^ to LO O -sH C3 «D O CO rH 

,rH H to CO 



(X! I to I 



o cr. to CTj 
00^0 

-vi' CT. 

^ vs rt 

D- C - O 

'XJ H CO LO 
(X! 



"sH CO O to 

10 to ^ 

^fl C?i to o- o 

•\ *v «v 

to 10 to CO rH 

CO C (XJ O CO 

CO H Cv! 



^ CO 
CO O- 

LO 

to rH 

W to 



rH (X! CO W rH H O t> L ■ to CD 

rH CO to to LO ir: C CO ^ 0 

CO CO to CO !> LO C^- CO CO CO^ LOi^ 

COOCJ5tOCaHI>-WtgLO<' 
^ UO (Xi CO 00 00 W 'lO 
H 



COtD'^ir^'LOCOtO'COOOCOWrHC-CTiCOtDCOrHroCTi^S 

rj cT^ c> 0; -e^ rH CO o rH CO CO CT. m o. to 

CO to 00 CO D o -^l^ CO. in LO -vH in to t^ CO co co r- 



cj> H c: 

CO CO' CO 



rH^O^COOOOrH 

H rH .-Ni H 



rH O 



rH H CO O O to CO to [> O 00 « 10 10 'i^ -^H to CO LO !0 O 

O O 'O CO t'J CO O CO CO CO 1^:1 CO to O t-O 10 (Xi r-1 t:- 1> O 

"» "•«•••«•••••» 

CJ CV! CO CO (X! C3 CO .H CO CO CO (XI CO CO CO (Xi CO CO to CO W (X! 



w CO cr. to o- J. o to ^< cft CO o 

W CX) CO C- to CO H to C> H W 03 03 t.C5 CO 
C3COr-HOOOOrHlOCy>OrHLOCCtO-^'< 



CO O (X2 
rH rH H 



H ^ m rH <X! O -e' 



■ I CS to CT) 
(Xi to to 



a3HC>-^D-rHtO'*LOCNlO(XjO^H.LOC;-^rHl0^ing 

CTJ CO o CTi CO CO c:^> -cTi -o- rH -(X! w ^ <^ « 

LOc^HOOtNCntOr-H'^aOrHOCOH O^f-IOOCDOrHCOC-^ 

CirorrHtctC*"-^C0rHHI>-tOQ0rHCO rHtOCV!C0;v!^C>[>-c^ 
to rH W 'i^ t'J (X! O W W to 10 CO s;' CT C: WO 
(X! CO H CO r-{ r-i 



in CO N to C: - ^ ^ CT- H -^i^ CO ^ nH e CO C;- 

CO 10 to LT. r>- to CO O H m C= D- CT- C- <^ O CO CO 
CO LO to CVJ tC O O rH CO f J CO CO tC LO CT> t: (7i CT> <XJ 



CV! 



I 



C 00 f-^ CO O vl< IT. CO to O CO H !>■ CC O- to 

rH rH rH C^^ n EN rH rH rH CO CO tO 

CO I , , 

1 I I I I I - I I I I .|. •!• I -I- I 1 I 



CO CO in rH O CO CTJ to to rH 10 C'J O tO I>- IT:) C\3 D- CO 

H O ir: <D O C O I> O C2 CO to CO to 0-. (X. C. CO 

C\3 LO rH C'J r- O !X! in [>- O CO a> O O CJl O rH rH ix. 



col 



tO 



O^tOOtOtO-vhrHOOCOrHrH 
rHrH CN-^M rH-vflCOCOrH 

W rH CM 



CO 



O t2 
r-1 CO 
rH H 



to 



C\2 









CL' 
























+^ 

Cd 












• 






CO 




0 


-P 
















•rH 


CD 






CO 


















-P 




W) 






• c^; 












rd 


Cd 




p; 


CD 




• '■a 












l> 


■p 




•H 






• c 








Vj 




0 


ro 










m 
la 








rH 
fn 


r.^ 


sl 


n 




t:) 








CD 






CD 


•H 




CD 




CD 






•H Q) 




P 




fH 


A- 


-p 


CD 


-P 


00 








•H 


H 


•P 


-P 


0 


■H 


Pi 


•H 


•H 




rH -P 


Cd 


Cd 


cd 


•H 


w 


CD 








fH 




<D (D 


PTH 


P 


is 


0 


iSl 


a 


^3 


M 


p 


CO is; 


W 


M 


CO 


< 


0 



■H 
> 
>> Cd 
fH rH CD 
Cd U) O 
til) C) U) 

P '.ul a' 
B P h 



cd 

•H cd 

fH -H 

01 P 

tt,) CO 



P P Id 

cd cO CD P 

g p: Cd 

P Ph CD rH 



fd 

ri 

cd CC 

p 

•p 



a'' o > 



CO Ph 



V.-H-78 



-13- 



CO 




Q) 








H 


( 1 


-P 


^o 


r-* 


1 










O 






n-l 






CD 


o 


•H 


-p 






,H 


CN 


O 




CD 


I 


P4 CD 


CO 


C\3 






_( 


1 — 1 


•H 






CO 


\U 


cu 






fn 


CO 




H 


f, 
r-i 


Cl-' 






CD 




CL 
r—l 








ITl 


CO 


CO 


-p 


•H 












O 










M 


CO 


CD 










o 


<D 




O 






H 


rri 


O 


r . 








CD 


CO 




CD 


ft 


O 


cd 


c 


CO 


CO 


•H 


rH 




CC 




JO 


'd 










(D 






rH 


a 


to 






•P 


o 




CO 








rH 


o 




•H 


o 


■P 


+J 








t>- 


trs 


(x; 


o 


1 




CO 






CT-' 


rH 


rH 


CO 






0 








cC 


<: 


u 




0 




> 


-p 


CO 


c:: 




CD 




^: 




1 




CO 




0 




rH 




rQ 




CC 









0 

0 0 

CT Kl 

^1 CO 

O 



CVJ 
W 
I 

H 

P I CJ 

H ' Ol 
Ph rH 

CO 
o 

I> 
I 



I 

o o 

-P CO 

C- 



CO -sf^ 



^ CO o 
• • 1 • 

CO W f3 



CO 

o 



.CO rH 



00 tN cx: 
* • • 

rH rH -J^ 



CO CO D- W 
• • • • 

CO w CO c:i 



I o 

::i -H 

Ph -P 

O CO 

Ah h 



(7i O 

rH O Q 
H CO 

rH CO H 



o o o o 

O O O 
CO H CO CO 

CAJ -i* 

H 



CX3|C\!|W|C<!'| 



CO 
I 

c 

CO 

i 
I 

0; 



0 -P 

•H :z! 

.'0 o 

-P <D 



CO 0 I 

H 0 0 O 

H CO CO O 

CO O • O 

ft H 

^1 ^ O 

O J3 W 

In ft 0 



sj< CO' W 
H C- ^ 
O W 00 

W f£) O 
CO 



M 

CC 0> "sfi H 

CO o OS a> 

r\ •> •% 

O ^ !> 
W H 







1 






CO 




C7i 


C\2 


rH 




fH 




o 


r-H 


H 


O 


lO 


CO 








o 






H 


CO 


+^ 


0 


:=) 




o 












0 


a* 


0 




CO 






(M 




CO 


0 




H 














rH 












rH 












CO 












0 






H 


CO 


t> 


W 


I 0 


Ph 




^. 




0 






rH 


i ^ 


0 


o 


r-T 






• 


• 






ft 


CO 








CX! 




(X! 


















^1 



















O -^H O- 
D- UO (X! O 
lO O O CO 

^ 

lO (X! -sf^ 



O "^^^ O UO 

■lO rH iJO 00 

• • • • 

rH rH H CAJ 

^1 x**! 



|cO 
0 



I 



THi 'tJ CO O 

0 O 0 O 

0 >i o 

0 o I - 

0 o y) H 

^ c^l 

CO 



CO 



I I 



0 0 >5 

o ^1 

S -H -H -P 

rH -P P § 

CO 0 -H 



00 



0 
CO 

•p 

-p 

0 



o 
o 

ft 



CO 



H -P 

H 0 P 

H fZl >5 d 0 

CO C H "I t 

0 -H Hi "I 

!>j fsD •!• I 



CO 
CD 
(X! 

rH 
CO 



«3 -^H 
C>a CO O: 
W CO H 

<X2 CO 
O 
CO 



CO O CO 

^ O 

O CO s}< 

H 

I I CO 



CO c\} CO «D 

H O CO O 
O CO «D ^ 



CO 



O O lO O"; 

iO O- CO 

^ H CT. ^ 

*k r> v« 

to CO H O 



W CO to 

in H (Xi 

rH CO ^ O- 

CO CO C\! 

•!• I 

cc I CO ! 











CO 




o 










[>- 




CD 


1 








-1 




«D 


CJ 




o 










:^ 


c 


o 


H 


H 




O 


-a 






0 






to 


OJ 






'.0 






CO 


Ai 






bu 









(X! CO C7> «j 

CD o CO «r 

iSi lO CO IN 

CT. rH O 

W H (XJ s.^ 



CT. 




CI 


o 


«D 


CT. 


to 


(X] 


• 


• 


• 


• 










o 


o 


rH 


rH 


lO 


LO 


H 


1 


















o 


c- 


o 


-.^ 
U J 




LiJ 


o 


C* J 


o 


o 


UJ 












uu 


C J 


»^ H 




p — 1 


\j* 




to 










#^ 








CT- 




,_Li 


CO 








CO 


CO 


CD 


o 


to 




rH 






C- j 




















r-M 1 








"rv!" 


LM I 


■ 

O 


cv 




to 


_ 

Li j 


00 


CO 


(XJ 


rn 






UJ 


C3^ 








^j' 


CD 


(Xi 




H 


00 


to 


LO 


















(Xi 




LO 


o 


C^J 




(XJ 


LO 


C- 




o 








r — 1 




















U J 






( — 1 


CO 


L J 


(X2 












LO 




C\3 


lo 


rH 




(jO 




CT 


CD 


1 — 1 




















o 


1 — 1 






r^. 


L J 


r — 1 


C J 


A* 




LO 






C\J 




1 ] 




^ . 


. , 




, . 


, — . 


^ — . 


.. 








o 


LO 






(XJ 


(XJ 


CO 


H 


H 


CO 


rH 


o 


CTi 






• 


A 










H 


o 


H 


H 


w 


rH 


r-i 


O 




~ — 






" ' 




" — " 




^ H' 
































H 


rH 


O 


O 


(X: 




(X2 


Ci 




O 






CO 


O 


CVJ 


- u 
ST 


CXJ 


CV 


O 






LO 


rH 


O- 


















r — 1 


r — 1 


(Xi 




r — 1 


o 


1 — 1 














(XJ 




H 




















H 


LO 




CJLJ 


CO 


UJ 




CX? 


CO 


CO 






o 


LO 




to 




o 


(XJ 


H 


(XJ 


O 


CO 


















w 


LO 


LO 


CO 


t>- 


m 


CO 


cr. 


CO 






CO 


(X2 


CO 


H 


LO 


CO 




Ci 












C7> 


(X! 


CO 


o 


CO 




w 


cr- 


o 


CO 


LO 


lO 


rH 


lO 


CO 






o 


(Xi 


rH 


LT.' 


c 


LO 


"si* 




















to 




CO 




CO 


LO 


CO 


1 


H 
1 


(XI- 

^1 


CO 

1 


•!• 


to 

H 
•I- 


1 


'J- 

•H 


o 


CTi 


(XJ 




H 


o- 


to 




rH 


CD 


CO 


cr- 


to 


uo 




(XJ 






CO 


O 


CO 


(XJ 


rH 


CC 






















o 


'O 




rH 








w 






(X" 


11 :> 






CO 

















I 

fn 

OJ 

P 
O 

CO 
cd 

-p 

ft 
0 

CJ 

K 

0 

0 

^ 
-P 
H 

:=i 

o 

■H 

^1 

<t| 

<H 

O 

0 • 

-P 

Hi 0 

P tD 
■H 

+^ CO 

CO fiD 

i4 0 

M fn <H 
CO O 



• 










0 










p> 








0 


tt'i 






<H 




, 1 








-p 


o 










ft 






d 


<H 








o 


O 


G) 






•H 




-p 






P 


tO 


J:^ 






ID 


(XJ 


■rH 












0 








o 


p 


0 


o 


o 


CO 


cO 


P> 






O- 


rH 


CO 


ft 


<H 


H 


Q 


rH 








ft 


o 


■"id 






^1 


ft 




0 


o 


0 




CO 




<+ 1 


-P 


0 




•rH 








cO 


0 


CJ 


•rH 


s:; 


0 


o 


•p 








0 


CO 






cO 


fn 


p 


(XJ 


Q 






(XJ H 


CO 


0 


ro 


C7> 




-P 






H 


-P 












o 




o 






ft 


0 


IH 


d 


0 






CO 


■r-t 


Ph 




CO 








+3 


•P 


CO 






H 


CO 


(X! 


0 


o 


^ 




(JJ 




Ph 


O 




1 1 




<H 


■H 






o 




u 








t:! 






O 




0 






•H 


y; 


H 


• 






•H 



0 CO 

P 

CO CO S 
CO t3 0 fH Q cO 

c: p -p s 
o :3 

• H 0) -p d 

+^ 0 •H W) 
CO ^ -P •H 

S CO 0 

^< 0 J^:^ Fh Cn o CO 

0 > M O (X! tH o 

-P CO Ch Cf> -P -H 

d H H CO -P 

M cO M I -H CO 

•■C3 p4 CD 

0 O O •rH (XJ 

X3 'H tH J CD 

•P ;h P' 



ft CD 
e rH 
O I 
O CO 
(XJ 
0 C7i 
fn iH 
0 

^ CO 



0 
(p ft 
O 

Cm 
CO O 
-P 

O i::; 

ft 0 

0 

U T3 

n 

t:! CO 
CO y: 

LO •H 

0 

U -H 

^3 y; 

O 0 
CO ^ 



J 

CO 

afl CO 



CO 
pi 
CO 



fH 

0- u 

P LO 
i=l ~( 

^1 

0 \. CO 

X LO t3 
■P ^ 
0 

>^ • 

rH 
CO 
•H 

0 <0 \, 0 
-p -H 00|^ 
^ !H P- 
O <H 

ft O • >^ 

0 Pi CO rP 



Ph 

CO 
0 0 
!>> -P 
CO 
U 
C 
P' 
o 
0 

Fh 

CO 'H 

O O 



PJ 

0 

rH 
CO 
O 



CO 



■p 

fH 

o 
ft 



CO \ 

CO rHl 

0 

>v 

• 

0 (XJ 

hC CO 

cO cr> 

fn H 
0 I 

> a> 

CO (X 
CD 

M H 

•H to 

Ph «h 

;i! CO 

■r) 0 

CO 
G 



Ph 
P> 
p; 

o 
o 



tH 
CO 
M 



C£| CO 

S O rH CO 
K P> C3 CO 

CO 

o 



CO 



:j 

■H 

Fh 
<H. 



CO 



<o 

CO o 

o 



in 



p< 

0 •H 

x: --w ti 

P> rH P! . 

<aj S H 

O 



p" 
ft 




hIco^Ics'IhI 



- 1 4 

WH-78 



The Continental Eur o pean ITh e at Market Situation During Septemljer ij | 



There v/as no clear- cut tendency apparent in the wheat markets of .con- 
tinental Sarope daring SepteniDer. Price changes were generally confined to 
narrow limits, and for the ijiost part the markets were influenced more "by local 
conditions than "by changes in the world market. In western Europe, . and parti cu- ^ 
larly Erance, markets were ur.der the influence of a record v/heat crop, which 
resulted in reduced prices. In' 'the ■ Scandinavian countries- markets- were alsc^ 
under the pressure of large domestic crops. In most eastern European^ countries, 
on the other hand, the markets have" heeh firmer' due to severe rust damage which 
resulted in helow average wheat crops. 

The quality of" tHe wheat, especially' 'in the principal' importing countries, 
is "better than average which, combined with the hcavj^ production, points toward 
greatly reduced imports this year, , • . ' • 

As a result of the favorahle harvest, the trend toward protectionism has , 
made further progress in a numher'of countries." These protective measures, 
coupled with the low stocks on hand, at the heginning of the crop year, have 
heen' important factors in maintaining domestic prices during the period of heavy 
marketings, hut _ the market for foreign grains has at the same time heen seriously 
restricted. 

'^eat and flour shipments to Europe and the Continent were much lower 
than duxing the corresponding period of iast year. Overseas shipments have'^been 
fairly well 'maintained, 'hu-t only hecause the shipments from' the Danuoe and from 
Russia have "been negligihle to date. 

This year we find that many countries, which normally import heavily, 
have enou^ih wheat, to .coyer quantitatively their domestic requirements,^ although 
in all cases a certain amount of stronger' foreign "wheat" is iieccss'dry r^^r mixing 
TD-ujTposes. France in. particular seems to have a s^arplus of wheat this year, tne 
method of disposal of which has not yet heen determined. 



M arket Section • 

G-ermany ' . " ... 

The German wheat markets exiiibited no striking changes during the month of 
September. In' s-oife 'of the rccbrd wheat crop' this year-, farm of f erings_ have so 
far not exerted any groat pressure on 'he market, and it appears that tne nume]> 
ous measures undertaken in' the interests 'of agriculture have been successful m 
regulating the flow of grain to market. In addition, however, marketings h^ave . 
undoubtedly been retarded by the harvesting of hay and other late crops and by 
the preparation for fall sowings. The demand for flour was very rcstric ted, ■ and 
purchases remained in narrow' limits. It '.'appears :'that' a I'arge- part of' -the m.arke - 
ings have been used to refill the stocks ' in the trade and flour mills which werei 
extremely small at the beginning of the crop year. 

Wheat prices showed only minor fluctuations, with some improvement at 
the beginning of September, duo to an increased demand, but later on prices aga 
declined to the August level. ■ The development of German wheat and rye prices 
is shown in the following table:- . _ 

1/ Based on report of Assistant Agricultural Coimnissioner Donald F. Christy, 
Berlin, Germany, September 28, 1932. 



WH-73 - io - 

Talile 9, -Germany: Price per "bushel of domestic v/heat and rye at 
specified markets, July 27 - OctolDer 5, 1932 





Wheat : 


Rye 


Date 


Hainburg : 


Breslau : 

u 


Ber^n : 


Berlin 
3/ 




Cents ; 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


July 27 
Aug. 3 

10 
17 

24 
31 

Sept. 7 

14 
21 
28 

Oct. 5 


159 : 
157 ; 

: 146 

: 140 

: 138 

: 141 

: 143 

: 139 

; 140 

: 140 

: 137 


149 
147 
; 142 
: 137 
1 136 
; 138 
: 140 
: 138 
: 136 
: 136 
: 131 


143 
; 138 
: 131 
: 133 
! 134 
: 137 
: 134 
: 134 
: 133 
: 132 


101 

98 

; 97 
; 96 
• 94 
: 97 
. 98 
: 97 
: 97 
: 95 
: 95 



Prices converted at cjxrent rates of exchange. 

ly 7ne-.t of average qiaality of 57,9 pounds ^oer Winchester hushel. 
2/ I'Markischer" wheat 58.3 - 59.0 pounds per Winchester hushel. 
3/ "ilarkischer" rye of 55.9 - 56.7 pounds per Winchester "bushel. 



The exroortation cf Gernian v/heat has shown sporadic periods of activity. 
In England, especially, hut, also in Italy and some other countries, there has 
at times "been an active demand for German wheat. As the demand for iiTiported 
grain on the p-art of German flour mills was very restricted, there has "been a 
substantial reduction in the price of the import certificates, which were sell- 
ing at around 91 .cents per bushel during the latter part of Septerahor, compoxed 
t» 106 cents per bushel paid around the first of August. This, cf co-arse, has 
made the exportation of German wheat more difficult, and there has been some 
dema.nd lately on the part of agric-'jltural representatives to force the mills 
v/hich are entitled to use foreign v.'heat to purchase their import certificates 
at this time, and thus bolster the prices. At present there is no time limit 
during v/hich the import certificates may be purchased although the certificates 
are issued only for grain exported before January 1, 1933, and wheat can be 
Imported duty-free only on import certificates issued before the end of September 
1932, The grain trade, on the other hand, has made a counter-proposal which 
involves the removal of the 30 per cent milling restriction, claiming that ^ince 
foreign wheat can only be brought in in an ai-iount equal to the German wheat 
exported, this move will tend to increase exporis, and will benefit both farmers 
and the trade. This proposal seems to be merely a defensive move and is not 
being seriously considered at -present. 

The rye situation differs decidedly from that of wheat, and the very 
large rye crop would have depressed the market, had not the Government inter- 
vened with stabilization measures. 

Most of the new agricultural measures introduced during September were 
in support of the rye market, which has been in a v/eak position this season. 
The Government has really accomplished two results by selling eosinized rye 
again at reduced prices in the livestock producing areas of northv/estern 
Germany, where feed prices have for some time been considered too high in 



WH-78 ■ - 

relation to livestock prices. At the same time, a cert'a'in' amdioiit of foreign 
feed 'ho.rlay is to ae admitted at reduced rates, " "but not until the prossiire of 
the new crop has "been eased. The eosiniz-ed rye is offered at a price of 35 
cents per "bushel, free station northwestern G-e-rmany, and at 83 cents per 
"bushel in the seaports. compensation for losses incurrdd "by selling domestic 
grain at the ahove prices, the- G-etreido- Handel sgesellschaft', which is handling 
the sale, receives import, certificates v/hich periTiit .the importation of feed 
"barley at a reduced 'tariff of 21 'cents per "bushel instead of the regular tariff 
of 62 cents. Tiiese .certificates rare not to he used until later in the season, 
when the pressure of present marketings is expected to "be relaxed.- Market re- 
ports also credit the Getreide-Handel sgesellschaft with taking considera'ble 
quantities of rye off the market .-which will later "be eosinized. 

The Government has also made stahilization purchases of "brewing "barley 
and will keep these 'quantities off the market -for the next .several months. 

The wheat market remained •com-.Daratively free from further goverrmental 
interventions, as the system of protection descri"be'd in previous reports has 
proved to "be sufficient to control the situation. 

Second-hand stocks of grain in the hands of the trade showed a conside3>- 
ahle increase during the month of Atl.gust, which, of course, is in line with 
ex;pectations. Compara"bie figures for -preceding years are not availa'Dle , out 
it seem.s likely that stocks on Septemher 1, -had not yet reached their peak. 
Under a previous agreement with the Goverranent, the grain trade and the flour 
mills o"bligated themselves to keep their stocks above normal for a period of 
'4 months and a large 'part of their Septem"ber purchases was undou"btedly made 
for the pi:ijrpose of carrying out their o"bllgations. 

France • •. 

Following the sharp' decline in prices d:arihg' August, French wheat prices 
have remained more or -less stationary. For a time farmers reduced marketings, 
and as a result early Septem"ber prices improved. Farm marketings again "became 
pressing, hov/evor, and all of the early Septemher price gains v/ere lost within 
a few days. Due to the uncertainty of the situation, the grain trade and flo'or 
mills are very reluctant to commit themselves to an;/ considera'ble purchases, 
as they feel the "bumper crop can "be purchased as required. In view of the 
impracticahility of attempting to export wheat at this time, there is little 
hope for any immediate improvement in the market situation, 

A recent decree of the Government has increased the tariff on rye from 
35 to 40 cents per "bushel, on oats from l? to 23 cents and on corn from 24 to 
40 cents per hushcl, 1^ addition, import contingents for "barley and "bran were 
esta"blished, 

Italy " \ 

The Italian v/heat market, was generally quiet throughout Scptemljer, "but 
the recent official estimates, placing the c.rop considcra""bly a"bovc last year, 
have exerted an unfavora"blo influence upon the market. Nevertheless, the imr- 
portation of foreign v/heat has "been resumed, - and imports arc considerably ^i^ove 
those for the s^me period a year ago. Several parcels of Anerican wheat as 
v/ell as German and Australian descriptions were sold. 



T17H-78 

Ho 1 1 and and B ol;^i'um 



- 17 - 



The market for foreign vTlieat in Holland and Eolgi-um during SGptcml)cr 
was quite irregular, with days of considcra'blc hiininess followed "by periods 
of dullness. The largest turnover was in MardtoTDas, vath offers of Plates and 
Australians more restricted, so that the latter showed more resistance against 
price declines. Some parcels of German wheat were also sold in Holland. 

The Belgian Government recently decided to introduce a milling quota 
for domestic wheat. Up to January 1, 1933, the mixing of 10 per cent domestic 
wheat will "be required, and after that date 15 per cent. In addition^ the 
importo,tion of soft v;heat, as well as grades competing directly y/ith those 
produced in Belgi'jm have heen prohihited, this measure "being directed particu- 
larly against German and French v/heats. 

Czechoslovakia 

The Czechoslovakian wheat market was com laratively firm and active 
throughout Soptcm"ber, although the rye market showed a v/eoker tendency. The 
firmness of the wheat market is interpreted in some quarters as indicating 
that the official estiraate is somewhat too high, or at least that the supply 
of good quality wheat is rather scarce. The extremely small stocks of \7i1eat 
at the "beginning of the season ojid the estahlishmcnt of the \fhoat Import 
Syndicate have also had a decided effect upon wheat prices. 

There lias "been considera"ble agitation recently on the part of agricul- 
tural interests for further aid to agriculture .and several proposals have "been 
made v/hich follow rather closely certain measures already adopted "by Gcrma-ny, 
Among such proposals are a compulsory extraction of only 60 per cent of rye 
flour and permission to import \7heats only in exchange for rye exports, "but 
no action has yet "been taken "by the Governnent. 

Austria 

\7hile the actual t-arnover must he considered siaall, the v/heat maricet 
in Austria had a friendly tone throughout m.ost of Scptem"ber, iL'.ports of forei 
wheat have heen greatly reduced ""oy import restrictions, -rhich has midouhtedly 
helped to sustadn the domestic market during the time of heavy crop movement, 

Poland 

As a result of extensive rust damage and a much smaller crop this year, 
wheat prices in Poland were maintained throughout Septemhcr. The rye market, 
on the other hand, wcalcened as a result of the large domestic crop, and the 
Government is reported to have made considcra"blo p-arcliases of rye for export. 

Sweden 

The excellent wheat and rye crops in S^veden this year have resulted in 
a f^jLrther tightening of milling regulations for the period of Scptcm"ber 1 to 1 
The domestic milling quota was raised from 30 per cent to 90 per cent for rye, 
and from 60 per cent to 80 per cent' for wheat. Recent reports state that the 
Governnent has recommended quotas of 97 per cent for rye and 85 r>er cent for 
wheat. 



WH-73 - xo - 

An agrocacnt 'bctwcGn the Govoriricnt •^nd the SvrodiGh Grain Association 
ganraatcos grov/ers that all wheat and rye of do.ar:st:C origin which they have 
on hand June 1, 1333, and \7hich is suitahlc for flo-ar production will he pur- 
chased hy the Government at .prices ;fixed "on Ja].j~ 28, 1932. 

The prices, which are 'for deliVer'y 'Tt' place- of ' quotation,, net cash, 
are given "below, and adjustments for the variations in quality are made accord- 
ing to fixed rules. The Sivedibh' ^aiii' lrrices- as • ^^.f'antecd oy the Government 
are as. follows: 

. Winter wheat: ..59,8' pounds per ' ITirichfinter hushol 'at Malno Kristi.anstad, 
' . " .. ' ..Kaliiiar, and Ilalmstad, $1,19 -per ■hushel, 

Eye: 56,1 pounds per' Winchester- "bushel siiitahlc for flo^ur, at I.Ialmt) 

and Kalmar, 99 cents per hu'^hel, at Kristianstad, 97 cents per - 
"bushel, at Halmstad, 95 cents per "'oushel, 

Finland. . ,. 

In linland the, domestic m-illing quota for rye was increased from 30 per 
cent to 60 per cent effective Septem'bcr 15, 

Bus s ia - ^ ■ 

Fall Sovah g ' Cam-paign 

■ ..The •unsatisfacto.ry progress of fall sowings reported in August has "been 
further a.ccent-uatcd dioring the first half of Soptem"ber, Total sowings on Septem- 
her 20, amounted to only 51,839,000 acres, compeared with 63,786,000 acres sown 
hy the some. date in 1931, These figures represent 51.2 per cent and 60,0 per 
cent of the rGsx)ective plans for the last two j^er.rs. 

The present sitijation appears still more unfavorahlc, v^hcn it is recalled 
that the 1931 fall sowings v;ere slow and long drawn out, and tliat yields on the 
late sown fields were greatly reduced, particn.larly in II,vraine and Fo^th Caucasus 
It now appcrxs Impossihle tliat the plai;i of 103,656,000 acres will "be shown v/ithin 
the time stipulated hy the Govcrnrae'nti-' Those regions which v,'erc to comiplctc 
their sowi'ngs hy Se-ptcmher 10, and which have 48 per cent of the fctll-sown acre- 
age of the U'-iion, had only planted 70 per cent of their acreage hy that date. 
Sowings in the Lower Volga which v;ere to he finished hy Septsmher 20, v/erc only 
41 per cent com.plete hy that date. It has heen pointed out that the Government 
plan provides for somewhat earlier completion than is generally regarded neces- 
sary; hut, even allov/ing for this fact, it is certain that total 30wing;s v/ill 
not he completed within the optirn.-uxa sowing dates .this year. The follov^ing tahl 
shows the sowiiigs of winter gi^ains i'n important regions on Soptemher 15, '..'itxi 
comparisons, 

ly According to Government orders sowings v/ero to he completed hy: 

Soptemher 10: in all the consuming regions, as well as_ in Middle Volga, 
Central Fertile Region, Ural",- TJliite Russia, and Bashlcccria; 

. SGptev.iher 20: in the lower Volga Region;, northern and central sections 
of Ukrai'ne, and North Coucasus; 

Octohcr 10: in the southern section of North-Caucasiis, Ukraine, and 'the 
v;hole of Cri-mca. 



VJH-78 



^ 19 ^ 

SeritemlDer 20, September 20, The 1932 Plan 

^ 195 2 ' - 1931 

1.000 acres ' 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 



Total Union 
Ukraine 

North- Caucasus 
Lower Volga 
Middle •Volga 
Central Fer''^il6 
Ural 



51,^839 
5,400 
647 
2,221 
5,785 
7,989 
2,646- 



63,786 
13,272 
1,270 
4,067 
6,580 
8,861 
2,644 



103,666 
26,514 
10,326 
6,301 
7,660 
10,774 
3,336 



The principal cause of the slow progress of sowings is attriljuted to the 
shortage of draft animals ard motor power. Recent reports indicate that fully 
one-third of ail the tractoi'3 are "badly in need of repair, and a shortage of 
tractor parts is rendering the situation still more difficult. In adS.ibxon, ^ho 
number of draft animals, which has "been greatlj"" reduced during the past two years, 
is insufficient to meet demands during the rush of fall work. 

The slow harvesting of the sunflower and corn crops has also held hack 
sowings in the Southc The hulk of these crops viore still unliarvcsted on Septcaher 
20, and as sunflowers are rofvirded as a good preparatory croiD for v/heat, the sit- 
uation appec^xs ■unfavorahlc for ncx': yearns yields. 



Field work has also hoon dolaycd in many sections "by the lack of rainfall, 
hut it appears that this factor hr.& hccn a welcome excuse to many collective and 
Soviet farms that have failed to pcsh their sov/ing campaign. Frequent light rains 
occurred in many sections around zho middle of Septcmher, hut further rains are 
needed in raar^'" areas. 



Sowings in Ulcraine, Lov;er Volga, and North Caucasus are vcrj'- backward com- 
; pared to a year ago, and the situation in Ucrainc is unfavoraole, in view of the 
■proposed shift from spring to winter wheat. Some of the northern districts of 
Ukraine which were to finish sowings hy September 10, had only seeded 20 per cent 
of their plan by the middle of the month, and winter wheat sowings v;cre reported 
to be especially backward. Reports indicate that difficulty has a.lso been exper- 
ienced in obtaining enough suitable seed in North -Caucasus this ye.^jr, and the 
Government has been called upon to furnish seed from its own stocks. 

The shortage of draft power and the rush to complete sowings according to 
plans have again resulted in a very unsatisfactory quality of field work, Conr- 
scquently it may bo expected that weed growth will a^ain be a seri us factor in 
the southern parts of the' Union, 

Tlio 1932-35 Procurin.T- Cam^oaign 

The progress of grain procurings showed a slight improvement toward the 
end of Augiast, but is still decidedly below plans, Procorings in July and August 
were only 45 per cent and 68 per cent respectively of the monthly plans, and up 
to September 20, the total yearly plan was only 29,6 per cent complete, as com- 
pared with 42.7 per cent last year. The important producing regions of the Union, 
Ukraine, North Caucasus, and Lower- Volga, have been" particularly back\7ard, the 
■yearly plan for these regions on September 20 having been completed by only 28.9 
per cent, 28,1 per cent, and 29,1 per cent respectively. Procurings have developed 
more favorably in the Central Fertile and Middle Volga regions, as well as some of 
the minor regions. 



■ - 20 - ■ , . 

The Soviet farms, which '.vers expected to provide the "bulk of grain 
collections, have actiially t'orncd out -to he the T?eakest contrihuter and, 
during the first 20 da/s of Sept enhor delivered only 30»1 per cent of their 
raonthly plan, compared to the individu-il peasants v/ho delivered 56,1 per cent 
of their plan, 

Ihcat procurings have hoen especially "backward this year, and up to 
Scptemher 15, the yearly wheat plan had "been only 19.4 per cent executed, 
compared to 48,4 per cent, the corresponding fi^re for a year ago. 

•■ , Shi-pments of G-ra.in frorg South Russian Ports 

As anticipated the Russian grain exports started several weeks later 
this year than was the case in 1930 a.^d 1931 and the volume of shipments to 
date, therefore, is considcrahly smaller than in either of the previous 2 
.years. The following table shows the shipments of the. various crops from 
Sop-th R^issian ports for the past 3 years: 

July 1, 1^32, to July 2, 1931, to July 3, 1930, to 
Se-ot. 21, 1932 Sept. 23. 1931 S eDt. 24. 1930 

1.000 oushels 1.000 rashels 1.000 oushels 



'Theat 4,383 39,448 15,425 

Rye 504 2,264 945 

Sarloy 3,183 8,731. 8,956 

Oats 606 ' 1,130 

Corn . . 71 ■ 138 



Recant reports indicate increased charterings, hut these are not neces- 
sarily for \7heat. It is now exp-:^cted that wheat cxvjorts vdll fall considcrahly 
helow those of last year, although it sho-'old he pointed out that exports depend 
more on political and economic necessity rather than on any direct relation to 
production. It appears that this year's \7heat crop v/ill not differ a great 
deal from the poor harvest of 1931, and it is generally recognized that too 
large a percentage of last year' s crop v/as exported. In addition, it appears 
that stocks of wheat are lower than a year ago, and' as the Government proc-'oring 
plan this year has heen reduced, there v;ill undouhtedly he less wheat for export. 

Danuhc Basin TJheat Situation Durin/; Au.mst and ScDtonher 1/ 

There has heen a largo demand hut small offers of new wheat of - ^jood 
quality on Do.nuho Basin markets during August and SexDtemher. Farmers are hold- 
ing good v;heat for seeding purposes, and also hecause of an expectation of 
higher prices later in the season. Offers in low grade wheat are much larger 
than offers in good vMeat, hut arc still insufficient to meet the demand, except 
, in Yugosla^via, v;hcre warehouses .and credit facilities are such th-at merchants 
cannot p^jirchase important quantities to hold for resale d\iring the winter months.^ 

Prices for wheat^ on D^^-^uhe markets have declined during Scptemhcr from 
the hig?a price level that prevailed in July and the first half of August, hut 
they still remain v;ell ahovc a world mai-ket parity. The decline can he attrih- 
utcd to v.iodcrate increases in arrivals v/hich have occurcd since threshing.. has 
heen completed. 

1/ Based on report of Assistaiit Agricultural Corri^p-issioncr J, Bernard Gihhs, 
Belgrade, Yugoslavia, Septcmhcr 22, 1932. 



?/H_78 - 21 - 

BiJ-t^arian, H"'angarian, and Rumanian prices have declined slightly as a 
result of a moderate increase in the market supply, whereas Yugoslave prices 
have decreased materially on account of small demands and relatively large 
offers. 

In B^jl,--;aria , wheat from the 1932 crop has not hegun to arrive on 
markets in volume. Prices offered "by mills and private dealers ar© ahove the 
fixed price of the Government Bureau and no now purchases have "been made "by 
the Bureau, The Bureau' s stocks of wheat have been practically exhausted. In- 
ternal sales "by the Bureau have not "been important, and as a result of high 
internal prices, there have "been no new export sales. 

In Hun;-;ary ^ deliveries to markets during the past month were relatively 
sm.all, "because farmers were expecting higher prices later in the season. The 
demand has heen relatively large "because mills are anxious to complete their 
winter stocks, and exporters are active "buyers of wheat needed to fill Ge^^n, 
Austrian, and Czechoslovak import quotas. 

Budapest mills recently attempted to create a cartel in order to depress 
prices for wheat at Budapest, "but the attempt has failed. 

In Rumania ^ deliveries of :7heat at export points wore practically non- 
existent from i:he middle of Au;i;ust to the middle of September, "but shipments to 
Bucharest were relatively largo. All the wheat offered at Bucharest up to the 
end of August was talcen "by mills -at prices varying "between 65 and 82 cents per 
"bushel. Warehouses at Bucharest v/ere reported to have been filled before the 
middle of September, and it was also rer)orted that there was no shortage of 
wheat at any mill in the country. In spite of this fact, demands continued to 
be in excess of offers, because it has been rumoured tliat not more than 35,000,000 
tc 40,000,000 bushels of the 1932 production are suitable for seeding and milling 
purposes. It is also feared that after f"J.l seeding is completed (^7hi h will 
result in the disaiipearancc of about 18,000,000 bushels of wheat), roads will 
become bad, and it will be impossible to find enough wheat for milling. 

The Government has made a f-urther increase in the import duty on wheat 
and flour in order to reserve the home market for Romanian farmers. At present 
the duty is 65 cents per bushel on wheat, and $3.20 per barrel on flour. 

In RUiiania, the Government has been negotiating for several months with 
a group of Gcri.ian industrials, who proposed to grant a loan to the Rumanian 
Govcrriraent, which could be used for the -nyment of export premiums. The group 
proposes that the ^^unanian Government purchase German industrial products for 
an amount equal to the amount of the loan. Recently, representatives of the 
German group arrived at Bucharest, to conclude an agreement. Their negotiations 
are as yet unsuccessful, partly, because the R-amanian Ministry of Agriculture 
was not in a position to give sufficient security, and pnrtly because grain 
dealers were not inclined to accept the proposed premium pajTncnt plan of the 
Rumanian Government, which included a 16 per cent reduction in the amount of 
the premiums. 

In Yu"oslavia . deliveries of new wheat during the t)ast month have been 
relatively small, but the demand has not been sufficient to prevent a sharp 
decline in prices. Dealers with warehouse facilities and mills have completed 
their winter stocks, and prices have remained too high tc permit export. 



Wh-78 . - S2 - 

E:!cports from tile 1952 Gvoy 

Exports to date, with the exception of mxngary, have been m.uch hclow 
the normal movement. Total July to September exports from the Basin are esti- 
mated at 3,843,000 bushels from v;hich 2,289,000 bushels are estimated to be 
from Hung^ary. 

The low ex-'-orts to dato from this year's crop are a result of low home 
production, hi, i^h internal prices, and satisfactory crops in the ccojitries that 
import Danube wheat or which sell in ,cbm-)etition with Danube countri.es, 

Germany, which normally imports large quantities throughout the year, is 
talcing less wheat at present and is even reported to have sold wheat in S'.vitzci^ 
land for September-October- November delivery., Hussian wheat has rcappeared^in 
Central Europe. A transit shipracnt from Odessa, Russia to Czechoslovakia of 
261,000 bushels of wheat and 386 short tons of bran was reported as having ■ 
arrived at Braila on September 12, 

Exports from Bulgaria have been small, as a result of this year's poor 
crop and consequent high prices. 

Exports from Hungary have been much larger than from other Danube Basin 
countries. Most of the Aug-ust and September . export \ms the delivery of a 
1,837,000 bushel; sale to Germany which was to be completed by September 15, It 
has been reported that only about 1,540,000 bushels of the sale could be deliver- 
ed because of small offers within Hungary. The delivery cf a 84,000 barrel- qiicta 
of Hungarian flour to Austria is in progress. The quota was tc be delivered dur- 
ing the 6 woehs ^oeriod ended October 2, and it is believed that the full quota 
will not be delivered, because of , difficulties resulting from the introduction 
of a special "crisis-tax" on flnior in that country. In addition to the flour 
quota," peimits for the mport into Austria of 155,000 bushels of Hungarian wheat | 
were given during the first half of September. An. agreement is in exi tence | 
between Hungary and Switzet^land for the sale of 2 , 480,000 bushels of Hungarian 
wheat, to be delivered by the end of 1932, at a price of 79 cents per bushel, 
f.o.b, Buchs. y It is now generally believed that this quantity will not be 
delivered as the nrice offered is not high enough' to cover the present relatively i 
high internal purchase price, and export expenses, TITheat is being exported' from 
Hungary to Czechoslovakia, for seeding purposes without' the payment cf customs 
duties. The Czechoslovak Grain Syndicate has recently permitted the import of 
45,900 bushels of wheat for use as seed wheat. Sraall quantities of flour are 
being exported from Hungary to Czechoslovakia in ' exchajige for Czechoslovakian 
timber and other goods. 

Exports from Rumania and Yugoslavia were very small as a res-alt of this 
year' s poor crop and consequent high prices. 

All Danube Basin countries have continued their efforts to secure favcraolC' 
market outlets for their export surpluses. A conference was held at Warsaw^d-ur- 
ing the second half of August in which Central and casterr> European agriculf^ai^ 
countries outlined measures that the delegates of those countries, were to supporj 
at the Stressa (Italy) international economic conference. These measures consis^ 
in the gradual abolition of all restrictions on free trade, and that fpr the im 
being, creditor countries should grant import contingents along preferential ^cus- 
toms duties lines to central and eastern European agricultural debitor countries 
in order that they m.ight pay their debts by means of exported agriciTltiii'al ■ pro - 
ucts. Those measures aro being supported by the Danube countries delegates a 

the Stressa conference, (The Stressa conference is s till in progress.) 

l/ ^Austro-S'.'iss frontier station. 



PUillTEr STATES DSPAl^TivGFT OF AGUI CULTURE 
Burea-Ji of Agricultural Sconorr.ics 
, ^ ^ • . j""""^ — i\ r 5 V 

«asiiington I L I 13 «^ ^ 

\ o P r E * ^' ^- ^ 

WORLD .TriT AT FHOSfECTS ! TJ. S. Dai-'-^*^'^^'"- 

aumraary ;« - "" 

Luring the past inonth estimates of wheat production have chan^'ed but 
little, the only chanj;e of any significance being a reduction of the Canadian, 
estiir.atc amounting to about' 25, OuO ,0v'0 bushels. Estimates for 38 countries 
of the Northern Kemis-here now total 3 ,172 ,000,;jOO bushels compared with 
3,163,000,000 produced in 1931. i'Jevertheless , \vheat prices continued to 
decline during October, and not until early IToveir.ber v/as the decline checked. 
Up to mid-November prices at -crincipal m^arkets had rejaiiied but little of 
the loss they had s^offered during the 2 previous months. 

These occurrences indicate that world wheat markets are still suffer- 
ing from a very poor demand in the importing countries. The approach of the 
Southern Hemisphere harvest, while large surplus supplies still remain in the 
exporting co^untries of the Northern Hemisy)here , has emphasized the sm.allness 
of the iv.iport demand in relation to available supplies. 

In tlie principal imi^orting countries of the European continent ^jrices 
continue very high ' relative to levels prevailing in markets of the exporting 
countries and at Liverpool. Kov/ever, prices in these countries are ro.ther 
low vviien compared with the levels to which these foreign Governments have 
attempted to maintain them. 

Tne level of world shipments is still low com.pared with previous years. 

Luring September, however, there was a rise from an average of around 

9,000,000 bushels weekly to about 12,000,000 bushels weekly. Tiie increase in 

shipments which took place in Septem.ber wa^s accompanied by the decline in 

prices during that month, but subsequent price declines have occurred vithout 

anj' increase of shipments above the level prevailing', during the latter part 
of SeT^t ember. 



vVorld . ;"neat Pro duct ion 

The revision of the estiiiate of the 1932 whet.t production in Canada 
Was last month's only significant cheaige in the estiiiiates of tne northern 
Hemisphere wheat production. Tiie Cr?nadian crop is now estimated at 
431,200,000 "bushels compared with the' September estimate of 467,150,000 
"bushels and with 304,144,000 "bus'hels produced in 1931. T'his ciian.ie reduced 
t'he i"ort"hern Heraispliere total production as reported 'oy 38 countries to 
3,172,000,000 bushels compared '.-/ith 3,163,000,000 produced in the saA'iie coun- 
tries last year. Only minor c"han;^es in t"ne European estimates and no chan.^es 
for 1-Iprfii African or Asiatic countries, have been reported during t"he last 
monfh. T'ne total production in 26 European countries is 1,507,000,000 bushels, 
an increase of 5 per cent over t'he 1931. harvect. 

Australi a 

T"he Australian wneat crop is estimated to be between 206,000,000 and 
211,000,000 bus"Jiels according to a report of ' Agricultural Commissioner Paxton 
based partly on official aiid partly on uiiofficial estimates. Indications 
based on rainfall continue to point to a "harvest centering a little mider 
210,000,000 bus'hels. Official forecasts , place the Uew Sout"h .i^ales crop at 
62,500,000 bushels and that of South AJLstralia at 53,239,000 bus'hels. The 
3ecret3,ry of t'he Western Australia 'A'heat Pool estimates the crop of that State 
at 43,000,000 bus'hels. Unofficial estimates place the crop of Victoria 
butween 45,000,000 and 50,000,000 "oushels and that of vaeensland at 2,500,000 
bus"hels. Yield indications from rainfall applied to area reports available 
give, a harvest of 59,0u0,000 for L'ew South '.Vales, 53,000,000 for South 
Australia, 42,500,000 for '/»estern Australia and 52,000,000 for Victoria. Mr. 
Faxton reports some temporary lodging in the hew South "viales table laiid from 
recent "heavy rains, but in general t'he weat'her "has been favorable for maturing. 
Hust is reported in a small portion of the country. 

DuruiTi 'ifheat Productio n 

The dumn v;"heat crop is considerably larger than that of 1931, and its 
quality slightly better, especially in Canada. Total production in the United 
States, Italy and IJorth Africa is reported to be 152,400,000 bushels compared 
with 118,500,000 in those countries in 1931. The United States crop of 
44,381,000 bushels is 25,451,000 greater than tne sm.all 1931 crop. Prodaction 
in Italy is estimated at 59 , 920,000 bushels compared with 49,20.3,000 in 1931. 
The irort'h African crop as reported by Agricultural CoraiTiissioner i-Ieilson is 
slightly siaaller t"han last year, amounting to 43,100,000 "oushels compared with 
50,350,000 in 1931. 

Canadian durum production appears to be rauc"h larger than the small 
1931 crop of about 8,500,000 bushels. Inspections in the Caiiadia.n iVestern 
Division through August and September reached about 743,000 'ous'nels compared 
with 431,'00 for t'he corresponding period of 1931. This y'car over 68 per 
cent of the first 2 months' inspections graded IJo. 1 Amber comprj:'ed with 40 
per cent in that period in 1951. 

Ho definite indication is available on production or probable exports 
of Russian duruun this year. Government procurings of all wheat to date are 
reported to be larger t'iian last year. Italy is the most important market 



'J7H-79 



-3- 



for botii Uorth American and Russian duriiin. Last year Rassia was tne most 
important source of Italian dumn imports, providing 4,806,000 busnels com- 
pared v/it"ii 4,204,000 bushels from the United S.tates and Canada corabined. 

Wheat Prices 

Wheat prices declined during. October and early' November . The Liver- 
pool, decline was. somewhat more uniform than in the United States iaarhets. 
Chicatso De.c ember futures on October 4 reached a hi^'h point for the month of 
54-3/4 cents per bushel. On iJovem.ber 3 Eecember futures v/ere q.uoted as low 
as 41-7/8 cents.. This marks a new low for December futures in the Chicago 
Board of Trade. _ Lower prices of wheat have not been recorded at Cnicago 'since 
1843' when wheat sold at 30 cents per bushel on that market. A subsequent 
advance brought ^December futures to 45-3/4 cents per bushel on ITovember 12. 
At Liverpool the high point for this period in Eecember futures was likev/ise 
recorded on October 4 at 56-7/8 cents per bushel. One month later Eecember 
futures were 50-3/8 cents, which was the low for the period. On ITovember 12 
the close of Eecem.ber futures 'at Liverpool was 52 cents per bushel. At 
-Unnipeg December futures closed at 46.9 cents per bushel on October 4 and 
40.7 cents 1 month later. The decline in Chicago futures during the month 
was almost twice as much as the decline at Liverpool or Winnipeg. During the 
same period Buenos Aires November futures declintd from 48-1/4 to 41-5/8. 
Although there was some improvement at all of these markets during the second 
week of November prices on November 12 were considerably below those of early 
October. 

Cash prices of wheat at the principal United States markets followed 
the decline of futures. For the week ended November 11 the weighted average 
pripe of all classes ond grades at six markets was 50 cents per bushel com- 
pared witn 53 cents during the first week of October. No. 2 Hard Winter 
at Kansas City was quoted at 47-l/4 cents per bashei on October 4 and 38-l/2 
on November 3. Simil.ar declines occurred at the other principal cash markets. 
At Liverpool No. 3 "Manitoba Northern declined from, an average of 55 cents per 
bushel lor the first week of October to 54 cents for the week ended October 21. 
Rosafe at Liverpool declined from 53 to 54 cents during the same period. At 
Buenos Air^s near futures a.veraged 47-l/2 cents, per bushel for the week ended 
October 7 and 42 cents for the week ended November 11. Domestic wheat z.t 
Berlin declined- from $1.32 per bushel to an average of pi. 29 durin.;, the same 
period. Prices of domestic v/iic-at at Paris and Milan improved/ during'^'Oc to ber 
and early November. At Paris the advance was from 15 for tne week ended 
October 7 to sj1«21 for the week ended November 4. For the week ended ..ovem.ber 
11 the average price was $1.20 per bushel, ^t Milan the advance was from 
31.50 per bushel on October 7 to pi. 55 for the week ended November 11, 



9 



-4- 



Table 1.- Wheat: Closiut;; price of Decenfber f-jitures 



Eate 



Chicaeo 



Kansas City 



i'.linneapolis 





1931 


1932 


• 1931: 


_1932. 


_„1931: 


1932: 


1931: 


1932 


1931 


1932 


1931 


1932 




Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


C en t s 


Cents 


: Cents 


Cents* 


Cents 


Cents : 


Cents 


.Cent 


Aug. 22 


54 


:. 59 


47 


52 


: 65 


57 


: 57 . 


■ 53 


60 


: 61 


45 


4/50 


Oct. 21 


45 


: 48 


38 


42 


57 


: 48 


: 46 


•46 


: .. 51 


: 54 


38 


4/4o 


Oct. 22 


. 56 


: 48 


: 49 


42 


: 68 


49 


; 55 


: 46 


■ 59 


: 55 


45 


5/43 


29 


61 


44 


: 54 • 


39 


74 


46 


: 60 


: 42 


65 


: 52 


50 


:5/41 


Hov. 5 


: 67 


• 44 


: 60 


39 


. 30 


46 


63 


: 41 


: 71 


: 50 


: 52 


5/39 


12 


57 


45 


50 


• 42 


69 


50 


: 55 


: 42 


• 61 


: 52 


52 


42 



'<«inni'pefe 



1/ 



Liverpool l/ 



i;uenos 
Aires 2i 



ll Conversions at' noon buying rate of exchange; September 19, 1931 to dc.te. 
2/ Prices are of day previous to other prices. 

3/ Hi^h and low for period (Aug^ast 22~0ctober 21, 1932) (August 24-October 23,1931), 
4/ October and February futures. > 
5/ February futures. ' 



Table 2.- Vfiieat: Weighted overage cash price at stated markets 





All classes 


i\'o. 2 


i^yo 


. 1 


■ Fo. 2 


Ho. - 2 


Western 


feek ' 


and grades 


iHard Winter 


Dk, 11. Spring 


Amber 


Durum 


• Red v/inter 


■white 


ended ' 


six markets. 


Kansas City 


Minneapolis 


i.iinneapolis 


St. Louis 


Seattle l/ 


1931 


1532 


1931 


1932 


1531. 


1532 


1931 


1932 


1931 


1932 


1951:1932 




Cents 


Cents 


Cents; 


Cents* 


Cents 


Cents 


Cents 


C en t s 


•'Cents 


Cents 


Cents : Cent 


Aug. 19 )^/: 


59 


57 


47 


49 


71 


61 


. 78 


57 


48 


56 : 


54 : 57 


Oct. 14 


51 • 


51 


41 


45 


64 


53 


■ 70 


51 


45 : 


49 


46 : 5C 


21 


59 


51 


48 


45, 


71 


55 • 


60 


51 


; 52 


: 4-9 


59 : 5^ 


28 


62 


49 


: 52 


43 


75 


53 


• 83 


: 48 


56 


48 


■ 66 : 4 


Nov. 4 


69 


: 48 


60 


42 


■ p3 . 


50 


93 


47 


63 


: 47 


• 76 : 4i. 


11 


: 72 


50 


62 


44 


: 01 


: 51 


91 


50 


: 65 


43 


74 : 



\l Weekly average of daily cash quotations, basis Ko. 1 sacked 30 days delivery. 
2/ Higii end low for period (Augast 19-October 14, 1932) (August 21-Octojer 16,1931) 



I 



■ira-7c -5- 

Table 3.- 'wheat: Price per 'oi.isliel at specified i.iarl; 

1932- Nove^'ber 4, 1952 



.cets, Septeinber 2, 



W eek 
ended 


"cHsas ' 
0 i tv 

1/ 


Miune- ; 

a "T n 1 i "t. 

'2/ • 


W iuni- : 

"0 e 
5/ : 


Buenos ; 
Aires : 
4/ 


Liver- : 

pool 

_'_5/; 


Great : 
3ri tain: 
0/ 

_i — — 


Berlin 


Paris : 
: 


i'.iilan 

iL 




Cents ' 


Cents 


C en t s : 


Cents 


C en 1 3 


Cents • 


Cents 


Cents . 


Cents 


SetJt. 2 


49.2 


Gl.l : 


45 . 6 : 


"4778 


58.3 


53.4 


134 


127 


" 147 ' 


9 


' 49 . 1 ■ 


50.9 


46 .0 


49.2 


60.2 


52.9 : 


136 


128 


149 


16 


: 45. b 


57.5 


43.0 : 


48.9 




52.8 


134 


126 


149 


23 


48.5 


58. 8 


42. 4 


47 . 9 


58.2 


52 . 6 


134 


121 ■ 


149 


30 


: 49.1 


58.4 


42.2 


47.9 


59. 6 


51.6 


133 


119 


. 150 


Oct. 7 


47 . 4 


55. 8 


: 41.5 


47 . 5 


56^2 


• 52.4 


• 132 


• 115 


150 


14 


: 44.6 


53. 5 


. 41.2 : 


46.8 


55.8 


: . 52.3 


129 


120 


150 


21 


: 44.5 


55.0 


42.0 ; 


. 46.0 


55. 6 


50.9 


126 


: 121 


150 


28 


42.9 


53.5 


41.2 : 


44. S 


'. o2 . 3 




125 


121 


: 150 


Kov. 4 


42.1 


49.9 


: 38.9 


42.4 






129 


: 121 


153 


11 


43.7 


: 50.9 


38.8, ■ 


42.1 






: 129 


■ 120 


155 



Prices are averages of daily prices, for weed's endin^^- Friday exce- 
Great Britain prices of home-grown wheat are averages for tiie v/eei: 
Berlin, Paris, end. ".Ulan orices are viedne.sday; quotations . Prices 
Buenos Aires, Liverpool, Berlin, Paris, and VdlBXi are converted to 
States none- at tiie current rates of exchange. 

1/ llo. 2 Hard iUnter. 2/ "Jo. 1 Lark A^ortxiern Spring. o_/ ilo. 3 ii&ni 
4/ riear futures. 5/ All sales of imported parcels. 6/ Home-grown w. 
and. i"/ ales. 7/ Domestic. 



pt as follows: 

ending Saturday, 
at .'Winnipeg, 
United 

toba Northern, 
heat in England 



Table 4.- Wheat: Average price per bus.-el of parcels .of s^oecified 
descriptions, c.i.f. at Liverpool, specif ied periods , 1931-32 



3 ivlfonitooa northern 



Period 



J an . 
F-eb. 



Apr. . . . 

May 

June . . . 
July . . . 

Aug 

Sept. . , 

Oct 

.7eo: 
Sept . 



ended 



Oct. 



rjov. 



2 
9 
16 
23 
30 
7 
14 
21 



1931 ; 


1 932 : 


1951 


Cents 






Cents : 


Cents 


71 






62 


61 


72 






64 : 


63 


71 






65 


61 


72 






65 : 


64 


69 






62 : 


65 


67 






55 


61 


63 






54 


57 


60 






58 


55 


58 






58 


: 54 


59 








54 


59 






59 


: 55 


58 






60 


: 54 


58 






58 


: 54 


57 






56 


: 52 


57. 






57 


51 ■ 


54 






55 


: 50 


57 






54 


: 53 


61. 






54 


: 54 


65 . 






53 


: 59 


70 








: 66 



Rosaf e 



_1932__ 
Cents 
52 
55 
57 
57 
59 
55 
54 
58 
59 



53 
59 
59 
59 
59 
53 
55 
54 
53 



Coiiioiled from Brooml'iall ' s Corn Trade l^ews. 



WH-73 



Yfheg.t, Rye and nice Di saopear eiice Per Cgpita i n Su ro pe anl As ia ij 

Estimates of annual r^'e disappearoiice per .capita in continental E-jropean 
countries and rice disappearance in fne Orient in tiae' period 1926-37 to 
1930-31 help 'to explain some ol the varistions in per capita v/heat di's- 
appearejice. (See World 'iVheat ?rosp.:c't3 OctPber' 22, i932,. pp. 8-13) ■ There 
are wide apparent variations in total cereal 'grain li's appearance In in- 
dividual countries but on the whole the 'combined disappearance of wheat and 
rye in Europe or wheat and rice in the Orient is more uniform' than any of 
these cereals considered alone. ' ■ 

Estimates of rye disappearance as an indication of" human co'ns"Uinption 
in Europe are subject to a soinewhat Wider mart^in of error th.an those for wheat 
Since Europe is the important producer of rye, With many countries producing 
surpluses, changes in carry-over are apt to affect the estimates "of apparent 
consumption of rye in Europe more than wheat. Rye is also probably used to 
a greater extent for livestock in Europe than wheat. In the Orient, it is 
probable that little rice or wheat is used for livestock, but changes in 
Carry-over may be an important factor. ■ : 

Average disappearance of wheat and rye together in all of continental 
Europe ,, excluding Russia, iS 7.0 bushels per capita, of which 4,7 busaels is 
wheat and 2.3 bushels rye. In Russia the' total disappearance of wheat and 
rye is 8.6 bushels, as compared with 5.1 biishels of wheat disappeara^:ce in 
the United States and 4.2 bushels estimated actual human consumption in this 
country. Rye is not added for the United States since so small a part of 
the United States rye supply is used for flour that the -figures would be mis- 
leading rather than enlightening. Even after allowance is made for changes 
in stocks and for livestock feeding in Europe it seems probable that bread 
grain cons'jmption in Europe is greater per capita than in the United States. 

Total disappearance of wheat and rice in the Orient ranges from the 

equivalent of about 4.8 bushels of wheat in India and 5.5 in China- to 7.4 

in Japcn. In S,_,ypt total disappear aiice of the tv/o grains averages only 3.9 
bushels in terms of wheat. • 

In seven countries of western Europe 2/ per capita disappearance of 
wheat and rye together averaged 7.4 bushels "of 60 pounds, co'mpared ■"vith 6.3 
bushels in seven countries pf southeaste r-n E'arope 3,/, 7.1 bushels -in 
eight countries of northeas^ernf 1/ and 8.6 bushels in Russia. - ■ - . 

The lowest average disappearsmce of the two bread grains is in south- 
eastern Europe where corn is an importaiit item of diet. Disappearance 
figures for corn are useless' as a mee,sure of hunan consumption, • j"as t as in 

l/ Prepared by Miss Lila K. Thompson, aiid I.ass Anna Sullivan- of - the Eivision 
of Statistical and Historical Research. : . . . 

2/ Denmark, Belgium_, Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy rnd" Switzerland. Tlae 
average computed by dividing total supply of tne cornraodity" for- the- seven- ' 

co^untrios by total population, 

3/ Aastria, C'zec'hoslovalcia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, G-reece, Bulgaria-, - R'lii'iirni a. 
4/ G-ennaaiy, Poland, >Iorwai^ Sweden, Lifnuania, Latvia, Eg tonia- aiid- Finland. 



-VH-79 



^7- 



tne Case of rye in the United States, iDecause onl^- a small perceatooe of 
t:ie- total s-'Jipply is ased for human, consumption. 

Rye disappearance per cg.pita in 60 pound bushels ranged from 0.9 
bushels in western Europe and 1.6 in the: southeast to 4.5 in the northeast 
and 4,4 in Hussia. - vifheat consuir.Ttion was 6.5 in the west, 4.7 in the south- 
east, 2.G in the northeast arid 4.2 in Russia. 

The re^^ional avera^'ss ar.e esoecially influenced by the populous >^rain 
producing countries of . Frcihce, Italy , Germany an.d Poland. 

Tliere are wide rentes in bread ,^rain consumption in individual coun- 
tries in Europe. Largest disappearance is in Denmark with 10.7 bushels per 
capita, Bel^,iijjn with 9.6 bushels, cind Russia with 5.6 bushels. Lowest 
disap jcarcnce is in G-reece v/ith. 5.0 bushels, Rumania and llorway- with 5.1 
bashels, Switzerland witn 5.6 oushpl.s and Finland with 5.8 bashels per 
capita. Supplementary inf orr::ation indicates that in northwestern Europe 
ap)rficiable q.uantities of poor equality grain are fed to livestoclc while in 
Switzerland, L'orway and southep.stern Europe generally t^ie nujuan consumption 
of ^Tain is increased by use of corn, barley, spelt, etc. 

In tlr.e absence of definite statistics on flour production a^id simil- 
ar indications of actual human consumption of wheat and rye, reports of 
GovGrn,nent policies and the statements made by men in the ^rain and flour 
trade aaid millin. industry to representatives of this Departraent in Europe, 
are useful in interpreting the disappearance fi:_^ures, Tor .Eenmarl: an 
estimate was ^iven of total consumption of v/heat flour amiOunting to the 
eqaivalent of only 9,200,000 bushels or 2.6 per capita instead of the 5,S 
bushels indicated by wneat. disappearaixce within tue country, huch of the 
domestic wheat was reported as unfit for millin^ aiid was fed to livestock. 
Tiie opinion seemed to be pretty general tl.at rye consum.ption was greater than 
wneat, whereas the production and trade figures show a greater wneat dis- 
appearance than rye. i.lore or less poor quality rye is also a.pioarently fed 
to livestock so actual wheat and rye consumption in Denmaric may be nearer 
5 or 7 bushels per capita than the 10.7 indicated by disappear.ance . Otner 
reports indicate t.iat some of tne breod grain imports are of poor quality 
grain for feeding to livestock. 

Flour consumption per da^' in Bel.^ium- as given a trade estimate is 
equivalent to 4.9 bushels of wheat per ca-;ita aiinually, compared 'vith 7.0 
busliels as tne total disappearance. This would indicate practically no 
huinaji consumption of Belgian grown wneat, but other reports indicate some 
use of Belgian wheat in millin,,, mixtures. Som.e of the Belgian rye is proba.b- 
ly ^Iso not usable for milling purposes. For the hetherlands various re- 
ports indicated that little or no domestic wneat was used in flour milling, 
but that some was used for wheat meal, ilet im.ports of wheat into the 
i\etnerlrjads amount to 4.0 bushels per capita as compared with the 4.7 bushels 
total disappearance which include dom.es tic wheat. 

In Frrnce the Governm.ent requirc^.nents of recent :) ears for the use of 
a large percentage of domestic wher.t in t.ie millin^ mixture tends to result 
in txie use of practice lly all the nillablc wheat for humian cons^ojnption but 
certain amounts of poor quality vvhcats are fed to stock. 



WH-79 



-8- 



Iii both France and Belgium mention has been rnade by members of the 
trade of a big reduction in wheat consumption as compared with pre-war. 
Seasons given in both countries included shortening, of the working da^' 
with the consequent decrease in cold luxiches , decreases in the ainount of 
m.anual labor following the greater use of labor saving devices a:'iu increases 
in purchasing power which permitted a greater variety of foods. 

In Sv/itzerlcnd Government regulations and encouragement of domestic 
wheat and rye consumption, especially wheat, orobably result in the human 
consum;tion of practically all of these two .-.'rains which are millable. In 
addition some maslin and spelt are used and possibly some b-arley. Thus the 
human t-rain consumption of Switzerland may be greater rather than less than 
the 5.5 bushels per capita indicated by the disappe-irance of wheat and rye. 

Human consumption of rye in Germiany ha,s been placed by the trade at 
about 55 per cent of the total supply, the balraice being used for livestoch. 
This v.'ould mean a human consuinption of about 2.1 bushels per ca^Dita in terms 
of wheat instead of the 3.9 indicated by total disappearance, and a total 
wheat and rye consumption of 4.9 bushels instead of the 6.7 indicated by 
di s appear cjice. Deductions for ijnmillable v//\eat would reduce the actual con- 
sunption a little further. 

In Norway and Sweden apparently m.os t of the wheat and rye disappear- 
ance can be counted as used for huma.n food. In Sweden Government milling 
regulations encourage the use of all the wheat and rye which pre of millable 
quality. While rainy 'weather in Sweden during the ripening rnd harvesting 
season is said to result in appreciable quantities of unmillable grain, 
present export regulations permit the substitution of good quality foreign 
wheat for poor quality domestic grain exported. The livestoc]; industry of 
Denmark is said to provide an outlet for some of the poor quality Swedish 
gr ai n • 

Grain consumption in ITorw^y is increased by the use of some bo,rley, 
and possibly small quantities of oats. The State Grain i/.onopoly is report- 
ed as b"a^^ing the Norwegian grain, including barley, rye and oats, as well 
as wheat, which is suitable for humaii consamption. The rincipal products 
under the monopoly are ..'heat, r-je, bc-..rley and wheat flour. 

Fii^ures for the United Kingdom have been excluded from the ta,ble be- 
low because i-ye disappearance is too small to affect the disappearrcice esti- 
mate previously published of 5.7 bushels of wheat per capita. Actual human 
consumption of wheat in the United Kingdom is evidently somewhat smaller 
than the total disappearance, I.'uch of the domestic whcc t is reported as 
used for poultrj'-. A. B. Hurst, in his "Bread of Britain", quotes an 
estimate of Eroomhall's of 37 , 000 , ..'00 sacks of flour of 230 pounds, each con- 
sumed roinually in Great Britain and northern Irelriid based on millin^ and 
flour import figures. Assuming the' estimcte to be for a period centering 
rbout 1927, and using the' population of that year this fig'ure would ;.,ivc a 
per capita v/heat consumption of about 5.2 bushels instead of the 5.7 indicrt- 
ed by disappearance, and su^^gests thet routihly about a fifth of the British 
crop is used for other purposes thp^n bread. 

In the Asiatic countries considered tne rice daid wheat diet is suv;- 
plemented by human consumption of some barley end mdllet. i^ut statir.tics 



C-I-79 



G,vail;'.ble indicrte. that barley c':nd. millet add little to tlie per c^-oita. 
food consuinption. Production of these grains is small and they are also 
us. id for livestock. Total production of these grains is small, amounting 
to about i\ bushel ^^er capita in India and Japan and 2.5--bushel in China,, 
and unless they are supple.nented by imports, the hunirji consun:iption must 
be less. In Japan total production of barley including naked barley .in 
the 5-year period under consideration, ' less net exports and estimated 
seed re<lulrements , reached only 1 bushel per capita rnd millet production 
less seed but regardless of trade 0.1 bushel per capita. In China aver- 
age production of barley, less seed req.uirenents ; is estimated at about 0.6 
bushel per ccpita, kaoliang at 1.0 busnel and millet 0.9 b^.shel. In India 
oarley produced, less exports .-uid seed, ajTiouiits to only 0.2 bushel per 
capita and millet production, less seed, 0.8 busnel. In tne above ii,_^ures 
barley.was figured' in 60 pound units' a:.d other-drains either 60 po'ond units 
or Winchester busnels. 

A more detailed study of cereal cons^u'iption in Japrn by //en Yah Swen 
and Ca.rl L, Alsberg l/ showed tlia.t about 72 per cent of the careal con- 
sumption in Japoai for food in 1925 v/o,s rice, 9 per cent vdieat, 14 pex- cent 
barley, o.nd 5 per cent other cereals including millet. Utilisation of 
v-arious grains in 1922-23 indicated that' pr;ac tic ally all of the v/heat supply., 
was used for h-uman food except 2.2 per cent for Si^ed, 1.5 per cent for feed 
other then offal and 1.8 per cent for u.idesi,^nated uses. Only 67.2 per cent, 
hov/ever, -.vas milled, and of that amount half was used in macaroni products, 
.and 6.5 per cent for industrial uses. Comiaercially milled flour consumption 
in tnc pi^riod 1923-1927 v.-as estimated at 18.6 pounds per capita, the equiva.- 
lent of about 0.45- bushel of wheat. About 22 per cent of the barley was 
used for feed rnd 11.7 per cent for naked barley. 

Official reports for S^ypt stat. that barley is not used for huma:i 
consumption except for sm.all quantities in Upper E^ypt. Sorghum production 
less seed is estimated to be only about 0.7 bushel per crpita but a large 
proportion of this grain also is probably fed to livestock. . 



l/ '.■■rne.vt Studies of the Food Research Institute, Vol. VI, llo. 8, July 1930. 



WT-79 



-10- 



t3 
CO 



>> 

i^-i Q) 

O M 

CD fH 

O 0 

G > 

cri CO 

CO " 

(D to 

a (D 

Ph -H 

CO Ph 

CO H-^ 

u 

o o 

•H 

-p 

W CO 

0 o 

e ph 

o o 



Ph f:^ iH 

o to 

0 O 
0 -H -to 
O qn Oi 

CO O 

iH 0 O 

CO P< +^ 

^ CO 

c CO 
p:; -H I 
cO <£> 

cO W 
0 -P 

-H H 
CO P< 
Ph CO 
■P O 

•> Ph 

^ 0 

O Ph 
■H 

+^ 0 

G O 

=i p:! 



•■ CO 

-P CO 

CO -H 

0 t3 
CO 

TZt 0 

'-^^ -C 

CO 0 









C/3 


+^ 




1 






0 




CO 




1 




• 




Ph 


0 




CO 








0 




CO 




} 






-P 






0 1 


■ 


CD 


T) 






•H 


CD 




fi 


Ph 


H-H 


Ph 


'w '■ 






CO 


•H 


o 


















1 j 


t\j 












H 














CO 












CO 




^• 






+^ 








0 i 






cO 




1 


Q 


0 






0 






CO ■ 












cc 












P^ : 












PA 
CO 




ha 










C\,' 


^1 ! 






'o 


1 — 1 


rH 










Ph 


0 


o .■ 


1 , 


^' ; 




O 


P^ 






, Mh 


0 






O 


CO 


!0 


. C\J 








Pi 




?Q 


o 


, 0 










Ph 












CO 1 


; a) 








rH 


H 










Pi 


0 


CD , 




i 




















o 


CO 




i 


: I 






Pi 


P3 


Si 



«o o c'^ ^ o 



.O O-i 5.G c- 



r-1 CO C\? O CO iH [N rH W O CO 

(Xi O- CO O U"^ <.b ^ t;'- CO D- CO aO CO 



oo-wocowotOrDtococfttoccoo-ocrtDcocntNca 

IN [>■ lO tc- , in •vt' <i lO W CO H W W r-! iH 



to CO CO W ^ rH O rH (X! O. UO C7. CO X' CM •^'^ C\2 H "7^ 
•CJCViOOOOCO-st^CX! l') O O O C'D O:! Cvl CD to LO '^H >;t< 



00 ir: CO -Oi c-:! '•j^ CO CO Oi N w o LO w in o «o H CD -vD ^ [> 
ca c\j o o o o to '^i' w o rH o c\3 to o [>■ ii:) --i* 



LO! 



0 

>. -H 

,« CO 



CO 



■ri Ph 

0 -P 

3 Ph 

o o 

O Cm 



CO 

^u I 

o r) 

P-H rH M 0 

Ph o C! 0 



o 
:o 

lO 



P3 X 
P2h 0 



CO rH 



, a> .W O CO CN CO LO O LO c< £>- -^i^ <^ rH O- 00 CO H N LO 

CO , to O CO rH C: ^ [>- CO CO W CC CO N lO W W to s,^ O CO W 

rH , ^ CO O rH rH C\3 !>- G. H a> to H CO '-D O O C>j W CO O 6> 

xi ;C0 o>rHCi o rHHWco -O rHio o. aococoyDHc-mco 

•XlrHCMr-ICOH W«DH to rHCn. rHr^ rHrH 

^ , C\J rH \, 

' I LO 



1 

i 




4^ 










CO 






t 




O 


0 








X'\ 


ur 


















T) 


rH 




!- 




H 










Ph 


o 










•H 




1 0 






fH 


















<i 




, o 




•H 


<H 




■ CO 




Ph 


O 




CO 




0 
> 


0 




!+^ 
, ^ 




•rH 


4^ 








^3 




0 






+2 


• 


, V 




0 


•rH 


CO 


X 




Ph 


4^ 


•H 


, 0 




CO 


CO 


CO 






t:) 




<J 


■ 0 




M 




Ph 




0 




th 


; d 




> 


rH 


c; 


-p 




■H 


CO 




iH 




Ph 




, p:! 




0 


o 


0 


1 O 




T3i 


•H 


Pi 


•H 






4^ 


p 


1 Ph 

i ^ 




0 


CO 


Ph 




Ph 








0 
;^ 


Ph 

0 










4^ 






0 


sa, 


In 


■rl 



to 

4^ 

0 
f3 
0 
Ph 

•H 

P 

0 



a) 
0 

CO 













to 


CO 


w 




lO 


03 




Cji 


LO 




H 


to 


w 






H 


CO 




o 


00 


00 




CO 




Ti 


0 


,'o 


to ' 


C\3 


a> 




co 


00 


cc; 




LO 


CO 


lO 


00 


CV3 


c 


rH 


00 


LO 


H 


lO 




LO 


C-0 


CO 


CO 


H 
CO 


Ph 


rH : 


00 




CO 


to 


o> 


to 


rH 


LO 


o 




uo 




to 


to 






C> 


to 


t> 


sf< 


CO 


to 


to 


0 


•rH 




0 , 








































4^ 


0 


P3 


6 


Xl 




rH 


rH 


CO 


w 






w 


to 




H 




rH 


rH 


to 




rH 


rH 


CV! 


rH 




rH 


CO 


0 


CO 






CO ■ 






























w 


















E-H 




0 


rH 


P' 












































H 






Ph 




0 






































lO 














\ 
























































CM ' 




H! 


CO 






a 


00 


CO 


"w 




to 








to 


CO 


to 


rH 


CO 


LO 


to 


to 


to 


CO 


I> 


Ph 


0 




CD 


H 




CO 




CO 


w 




L- 


CO 




I>- 


CJ> 




a- 


CO 


CS 


O 




CO 


CO 


CO 


o 


rH 


a; 


0 




X' 














































o 




?H 


1 

1 


CO . 


oa 


C 1 




rH 


rH 




CV! 


W 


N 


W 






03 


rH 




W 


CO 








w 


CO 




:n 




o 
























































CO 




PA 






















<^ 


> 
















> 









0 '53 Ph 

4^ Ph P^ 0 

\P a W ^ 

;4^ -H 4^ 

.•H 0 Cm 

;4^ Ph 

CO CO 

' p:; •H 



,rH a 

I s ^ 

p) 0 

: o ^ 

•H 

4^ 0 

CO > 

; cj CO 

Ph X 

■ 0 



I 

t3 ^P 
cO 0 0 
0 'd 0 tjD 
O o S=i 

<i & O -r-i 

CO ;3 
to 



o 



O to CO CO tC' C-'j "til l> g: :> CO lO O"- rH O CO 00 lO tO O 
to lO CO O LO CO iO O !N '^H to CO H CO CO CO rH LO CJi 
LO sH CO l:) CO 0> LO to LO rH lO CO O O rH rH to CO lO sf< 



rH rH 



rH 



CO 

to 



4^ 



cd 

■H 

to 

H> JD 
CO \, 

0 O 
X" 0 
& 4J 
Ph 

X- O 
O Pi . 
•H 0 0) 

x; Ph m 
^ (C 
CO p^ 

tH (I) 

O CO > 
Ph 0 Cd 



LO 



•m 

o P 



0 

O 0 

p:! -H Ph 

CO -rH ,<P 4^ 
rH CO +^ 

CO 4^ -H 

0 ^ G 
Ph o 



I , O IN IN CO 0> I>- -H LO CM CO lO cr. tC O:. LO - ^ iH 00 

: CO to O CO CD CO '=^^ rH •<s+* to 00 rH LO C-0 CO C-. 00 lO 

O H , CJ to CO IN rH G> L': rH to CO to CC C O rH CO rH 

jO X! . O O W to rH vj' 00 CO O- rH C- rH 10 IN O 05 O 

, •> to M CV CJ CO OJ CO tO> CM r-i cr CO CO rH 

.--I P^, CV CO ^ . 

; ^ I LO 



C "^^t 
CO 00 
C\,i LO 



00 IN 



; J "m 
,4^ O 

O ■■ci 
! Pi 
. 0 0 



- p:! - 

rH 0 © 

•■■H P-t >> 

CO CO I 

4^ Q, 

T3 P^ \ 

•rH h7 I 



CO 



0 



I CO 

!-i 

' 

4^ 



0 
X! 



M P CO +i 

j:^ rH 0 4-^ 0 

:i M P 
O 

II Pi II 

X 

0 I 



to 

Ph p:! 

cO G rH 

m -H p 



CO 

4J'-J 

pHi 

0.0 
Ph; - 



CO 

H! 
0 

to ■ 

Ml 



IN to CO 5-' 

to 03 lO O 

•~0 t}< CO '.V 

CO CO r 

I I I I 



to a, IN rH 
■S.H IN LO 10 
to O CO' ^ 



rH CO ■'^H t£j 
rH to CO IN 

cr.- CD 



to H 
CM CO 
LO 



rH CO 
to rH 
CO 03 



I I 



CM 
I I 



CM 
I 



l:)|co'| 



CM 
IN 
IN 

CO 
I 



to L-^ 
to rH 
LO 

H U"^ 
I I 



'P 
P 
CO 

pn 

•rH 



CO k 

4^ 



CO 



O 

•M 

O 
PJ 



Cf) H rH CO 05 rH "v:* CO CO CV G> CO O sf< C; CO 
to 00 CO IN O 00 C-J C^J Gj O CM CO rH to CO 

H ' in H LO 10 rH st* CO O CM CO to IN O 10 IN 



0 



CO (iJ 
CM C- 



tO IN 
IN to 
CM O 



CO 

1 

o tc. 
I w 0 

o 



X,-,OrHLOCMCOtOrHC:^tOO-INrHOOCOcC 

to rH ■ 0 H CO CM rH to 03 rH 

P I CM 

X 



lO CO O to CO 



Ph 
4^ 

Pi 

rJ 

o 















'.•0 


















•M 






• to 












CO 






'p 








c:; 




> 




CO 


• § 








CO 




0 




•M 










rH 




H 




^ 








Ph 


CO 


CO 




CO 


0 






0 


■H 


0 




rH 


•H 0 


0 


C 




; 1 


Ph 


sz 


& 


(/J 


M x; 


p^ 


•H 


rH 


+i 


4^ 


V 


f).i 


0 


H -P 




cO 


CO 


•H 


to 


CD 






0 0) 


Ph 


Pi 


4-5 


& 




'N 






ffi ;iH 


C=H 


CO 


M 


00 


0 







to 



■H CO >5 

0 Ph -rl C 

O (0 p:^ cO 

0 M CO S 

0 rH ^ Ph 

Ph P3 ;3 0 



CO TTl 
•H 

C CO 

O rH 

•P >H 

to -H 



CO O 

•H 

C 4^ 
•H 

<H 4^ 

-M CO 

o o 

; Ph O 

Cm +5 
CO 



CO 
0 
Ph 

?1 • 

to rH 

(0 
H 
O 
-H 
CM|itH 

X O 

4^ a 
• p 

c c; CM 

-H •H CO N^. 
rC^ rH 

0 
to 

P 



0 



|-H Id 
ft 0 
, S +^ 

o o 



CM 
CO 

Ph 

0 

,a 
O 

4^ 

o 
o 



CO C 
42 (D 
O H 

0 od 
Pi o 

to 



-79 



^•11- 



o 
CD 

a H 

rt -p 

•H ^ 

o 

o 

4^ 0) 
CO -H 

e -r-' 

o o 
ft 

CO 



7i ":i U 

O 0 f> 

^ O CO 



0) t::! 

<D 

o cd 

<r; ■ © 

CD Cl 

o cd 
(1) 

CC 
CD 

o 



I 

D 
rH 

CD 











0^ 


■4-^ 
























(H 






















j-- 

M 


O 




M 1 


LU 


•-H 














C) 


i. 








* 


* 










<D 


-P 






^ 1 






IT.' 








O C 


O 








W . 














i 


■i-i 

M 


•f^ 


o 














4) 














• . . . ^ 
























w ; 


















-P 






1 










CO 

M 








CO 
0 








* 


• 


C 
* 


• 


c3 








J~ 






CO 


O 




r— 1 




9 








!--■■ 












— ' 






. 










W ; 










p-t 
























cd 


o 


1 








(X j 


CO 










■H 














1 — 1 ; 












C 




CO 




cC 




o ' 












cCl 1 C 

^"^ (DIM 






o 




X , 




* 


* 


* 


CD 


'^ 


o 


'£ 












o 




+^ 




Q) 








^1 
















•P 








r 1 












^^ 






















CO 






























C) 






• 1 




Q 








-p 






c 






CO, 






C- 






O 


1 




CO 








• 




• 


• 


p ^ 








0 








o 


DO 


o 


q 


1 








to: 








CO 
H 


tH 

c:0 







•H 

CO 

r-J .^1 
■rH 



0 







c 








■H 




CO 


0 






0 


TT! 


0 






O 


X.) 


o 




0 


O 






CO 


CJ 
















CO 





■o 

;o 



00 
0 , 

o 
CO) 



to M 00 iH 
t£i ; 

[>- CO a: w 

rH EN 00 
CO ^ 























6 


0 




>.- 


!§ 




it; 






w 






•H 








H 






CO 


--1 


•r~! 




+^ 


IrH 




O 




to 




H 


CO 


+3 




'rH 


o 










CO 




•r-l 


3 




ft, 




o> 






pn 


:re 


pi 


o 
o 




1 




H 


CO 





X-. ••-^ 
•p cO 
-p 

O Ti 

CO t3 
+^ C 
CO 

C 

ft J 













to 




CO 


1 


^; 


CO 


o 




O; 






CO 




-p 


•p 


-p 


+^ 


o 






o- 


rH 


to 




0 






© 


u 




fn 


•H 




D- 




CC 




-p 


T3 




CO 


c 


o 


O 
















CO 


0 


o 




ft 




ft, 


IrH 








ca 






^^ 
-p 


:cal 




II 
•I' 


X 


1 1 

1 


•(-1 


■rH 

1 t-. 


^1 


•I- 


1 


1 


•I- 



Xi 
CO 
-P 

CO 
•H 

■P 



o 

•H 

CJ o 

O 
^1 

ft ■) 
Id -H 
cO o 
CO ^ 

0 

?H « 
CO 4^ 



0 



C4 



o 
ft 

■J 

B 
o 



c 


















i 






















































's 


CO 




o 


13 






•r-4 




0 


^( 




CO 






















o 




0 




0 






0 d 


4^ 


H 


0 


•H 








X 


to 


CO 


LO 


0 




o 


rH 




o 


CO 




O -rH 




rH 




Td 


0 




CO ! 


a 




a; 




4^ 






o 


•H 






4^ 


( — i 


•H lO 




CO 


o 


lu 


0 


'•2 








o 




:3 




CO 




ft 




CO 


■r-l 




K +^ 


C 




ft 


ti: 




d ■ 










4^ 


•H 




w 


cJ 
O 






ft 


:? 


0 


o 






o 








rH 


o> 


H 




•H 




4^ 




CQ 


n 


CO 








c 










?| 




H 


CO 




4^ 






■H 


o 


CO 




o 










ft 


0 






ftl 










CO 


at 






0 


05 

H 






rH 


























hH 


0 


i 






1 




o 






































OJ 


CO 






1 










'r~i 














rH 


& 








w 






4^ 












0 


! 3 


CO ' 


IN 


CM 






CO 












0 


0 










rH 




^1 




'CI 


H 






to 






c 


•H 


iO 


H 


t! 


o 


^ 


1 






CO 




•H 






to 




uO 




O 


'c 


o 




6 




CO 


r-* 


W 










0 


Hi 


.rH 












■H 


■rH 




CO 


•H 


CO 


H 


3 


1 


X j 






o 




cr' 


. -H 


li 


CV2 




rH 




4-^ 




CO 


a 


+2 


H 


4^ 




t£ 
W 


"S ' 








CO 


0 

fH 














CO 




•H 


•H 

4^ 


0 
•H 


cO 
0 




0 




S 1 






























j3 


4^ 


!>. 


C 


ft 

ft 


iH 












0 






W 


w 


Oi 


IN 


■■0 


O 


•H 


■H 


J' 




o 










o 


0 


f4 


1 


CO 


CO 


LO 






4^ 




CO 


4^ 


4^ 


0 


•H 


CO 


0 








0 


ft 


o 




x> , 

rH 












•V-i 


fH 


iO 


CQ 


x^ 


4^ 


CO 










CQ 




CO 


1 






<^ 




M 








4J 




•H 


CO 


^ i 












1 


















. 0 







C\2 



o 

•H 

4^ 
O 
•-< 

'5 
c 



CO 

O 'V} 
•H 



ft, 



CO CO O rH 

rH W Vj' Ifj 

O- rH sh lO 

CO O; O 

to rH 00 



^0"| 



4^ 

n 

o 
o 



CO a CC 4^ 

•H CO C ft 

73 ft tH >> 

C CO 

M K O r-1 



o 

CO 13 
O 

rH 

CO 13 
•H 

o d 

•H 4^ 

Vh d 

<;-, 13 
o 

sn o 

O -H 

<;-; CO 
rH 

0 ft 
rP 

ft 

O rH 



0 

4-^ 

<Vh 
O 

0 

i 

4^ 

o 

0 

o 
ft 



fr, C/) 

O fH 

CO 

J 0 
4^ 



13 



C CO 

Pi ft 

tO CO 



fn p; 



0 
JD 
O • 

4J 00 

0 w 
o 

4J 
" CO 

CO X'- 
4J +3 

o 

0 tlT 
ft c 

(0 -H 

♦> 6 

Ch P 
Ph CO 
CO 

CO 



>5 13 

X> 

CO 

4^ c^ 
fn -H 
O ^ 
ft O 
0 
fH 



•H 

13 CO 
0 CO 



CO 

S ft 
c c 

S-> fH 
<Vh O 

13 4J 

0 

fH CO 

•H 4^ 

ft fH 

- 9 

o ft 



H I 
CO 

CO 

0 "J 

O XI 



0 



!> 
o 
f- 

ft o 

4J 

CO 

W 13 



|co| o 



W-79 -12- 

The Continental Suropean '.rneat l.Iarket Situation Durin^:^ October l/ 

Continental v/heat markets generally" shoived a weak tendenc^ during most 
of October "bein.^ influenced in addition to domestic difficulties "b„' the sl'omp 
in overseas mari:ets. Farm deliveries increased somev/hat following the 
completion of most of the fall field work hut \/ere still ver;;,' moderate and 
coniparativel;' slow deliveries this ;'ear .ar-e he.lieved to have prevented prices 
from reaching even lov/er levels, oalos of flour ':o consioiners were greatly 
restricted so that flour millers have heen reluct ant . buyers . 

The final outturn of the continental v;heat crop is considerably,' above 
ec.rlier expectations and the large supplies 'are pressing on the markets. In 
addition the consumption cf' wheat appears to have declined and many of the 
Governmients are no\7 puzzling over v/ay's and m.e'ans of ' supporting domestic prices. 
It is obvious, therefore, that the demi.nd lor overseas wheats v.dll be more 
restricted than last ^'ear. ' ' ' ' : 

The tendency to restrict imports made further slight progress ■ during 
October though none of the recent measures are of major importance, ^n Germany 
large scale stabilization purchases are expected. in the near future. 

Shipments of v/heat .and flour to Europe and the Cont inoxit. were much s.-ialler 
than a year ago. jRussia contributed only negligible quantities and practically 
no v/heat v/as received froia the Danube Basin. 



Section on Crop Conditions 

i'ears of an extensive drought, especially- in . eastern Europe, xiero 
dispelled b;^; substantial rains during- Octob-or-, -so- that, -v.ath the exception 
of a fev/ mountainous regions and certain localized areas in Poland and 
Czechoslovakia, the supply of moisture throughout northern and v.estern Europe 
may nov/ be considered sufficient. The dry conditions experienced during 
September and early October in certain ■ areas ol France raid the eastern European 
countries delayed fall sov/ings so that,- coxisidere.d as a v;hole, the fall-sown 
v/heat and rye is entering the -i/intor under less favorable conditions than 
a year ago. 

Germany . 

The v/eather in October v/as gcnorall;, favorabile for field v/ork, v/ith 
alternating periods of rain and good .v/.yath.or . Rainfall in October v/as normal, 
or above, in practically all sections, and fall-so\;f': crops are showing good 
growth. 

The recent estimate of the Prus.pian. Statistical Office, confirms the good 
quality of this 3'ear's crops.' .xcordin^j . to this ^stimato, -.52 per cent of the 
v/inter v/heat harvested in 1932, may be classified as good, compared v/itn onl:,- 
30.6 last year. The provinces of oast Prussia, Lov/or cjid Upper Silesia are tno' 
only regions v/here the qua.lity of v/hoat this year v/as below that of last. In 
east Prussia stormy weather d-uring August damaged the quality and, in c.ddition, 
som.e rust damage was reported. In Silesia, and especially in Upp^r Silesia, the 
v/heat crop v/as badly damaged by black ' stoia' fust . 

1/ Lcsed on report of Assistc-jat i--gri cultural Comnissioner Donald F. Christy, 
B'erlin, Germany ITovomber 3, 1S32. 



-15- 



Frr.nce 

Fiold \7or]c during the pest month progrcssod more or less normally on 
the whole, althoii-h sor.e delay v;as experienoed. iri the rentr:.l and western 
regions, as a result oi rain^' weather. Despite the recent fall in \;heat prices 
the acreage of winter w-ieat sown tiiis fall is not expected to differ -greatly 
frora that of last ;"ear. 

Italy 

Rains during the first part of Octo'o.'^r reliev-jd the moisture deficiency 
previously experienced, hut, at ':he same tir.ie, caused some delay in seeding 
operations in the northern and central parts oi the country. Slsev/here, the 
sowing progress v/as aoout normal, and the winter \/heat acreage is expected to 
ahout equal t'lat of last :,"ear. 

The 276, oOO, 000 .hushels irientioned hy I.ussolin^ so -e weeks ago, apparen